Global Economic Consequences Research Articles

Global economic impacts of climate shocks, climate policy and changes in climate risk assessment

This study assesses the global economic consequences of climate-related risk in three broad areas: (1) the macroeconomic impacts of physical climate risk due to chronic climate change associated with global temperature increases and climate-related extreme shocks; (2) the macroeconomic effects of climate policies designed to transition to net zero emissions by 2050 (transition risk); and (3) the potential macroeconomic consequences of changes in risk premia in financial markets associated with increasing concern over climate events. We consider four widely used climate scenarios (Representative Concentration Pathways, or RCP), and identify the physical damage functions due to chronic climate risks. The chronic climate risks include sea-level rise, crop yield changes, heat-induced impacts on labor, and increased incidence of diseases. We also estimate the future incidence of climate-related extreme events, including droughts, floods, heat waves, cold waves, storms and wildfires, based on climate variable projections under the climate scenarios. After translating physical climate shocks into economic shocks to labor force and sectoral productivity, we investigate the macroeconomic consequences under the climate scenarios using the G-Cubed model. The results demonstrate that physical climate risk is likely to cause large economic losses in all RCP scenarios, both through chronic climate change and extreme climate shocks. We then explore the impact of country-specific economy-wide carbon taxes as a representative policy action to drive the global economy to achieve net-zero emissions by mid-century. Transition risks vary according to the ambition and the design of policies to reduce emissions. The results demonstrate that there can be potentially significant costs associated with policies to reduce emissions, and the costs differ across sectors and across countries. We also address whether changes in climate risk perceptions can significantly impact the real economy through changes in risk premia in financial markets. We calculate shocks to financial risk premia based on relationships between historical climate shocks and changes in financial market risk premia. We apply these shocks to risk premia under the RCP scenarios and find that the cost of rising risk premia can be of a magnitude consistent with historical experience. The cost appears to be smaller than the economic costs of changes in physical climate risk and transition risk.

Ecological Genetics and Modern Problems of the Biosphere

This article considers problems of the biosphere: global warming, environmental pollution, the consequences of economic globalization, reduced biodiversity, the production and cultivation of genetically modified organisms, and related problems of environmental genetics, a scientific field that studies genetic processes in populations and takes into account environmental effects.

Pros and Cons of the Globalization of the World Economy Impact on the Development of Accounting

The globalization of the modern economy imposes special requirements on national accounting systems with the focus on standardization of information summarizing methods in order to form unified accounting statements. Public companies seeking to become players on the global trade platform are forced to adopt the rules of the international accounting and reporting. This has certain implications for national accounting in different countries. The article offers a study of the alternative influence of the phenomenon of economic globalization on the development of modern accounting. Positive and negative factors of such influence which have already forever changed the quality of the accounting, (Russia included), are highlighted, meaning not only improvement of the methods of accounting information generalization but also changes in the very attitude to the accounting profession. It is concluded that the consequences of economic globalization for the countries participating in the world trade platform have led to a positive change in the quality of the accounting system as a whole. However, to maintain this trend, the participation of educational institutions and professional communities along with the state in the improvement of an accounting process is required.

Modelling the global economic consequences of a major African swine fever outbreak in China.

African swine fever is a deadly porcine disease that has spread into East Asia where it is having a detrimental effect on pork production. However, the implications of African swine fever on the global pork market are poorly explored. Two linked global economic models are used to explore the consequences of different scales of the epidemic on pork prices and on the prices of other food types and animal feeds. The models project global pork prices increasing by 17-85% and unmet demand driving price increases of other meats. This price rise reduces the quantity of pork demanded but also spurs production in other parts of the world, and imports make up half the Chinese losses. Demand for, and prices of, food types such as beef and poultry rise, while prices for maize and soybean used in feed decline. There is a slight decline in average per capita calorie availability in China, indicating the importance of assuring the dietary needs of low-income populations. Outside China, projections for calorie availability are mixed, reflecting the direct and indirect effects of the African swine fever epidemic on food and feed markets.

LOCAL CONFLICTS IN THE GLOBAL ECONOMY

Introduction. The research of theoretical principles of the impact of local conflicts on the global economy requires an economic understanding of such strategic phenomena as the arms race, the creation of international alliances and the economic effects of military spending. The risks, threats and challenges of direct and indirect losses received by both sides of the conflict also have a negative impact on both third parties and the global economy as a whole. As a result, global leaders and actors involved in conflicts reflect on the effectiveness of their participation in the confrontation. That is why the analysis of local conflicts and assessment of their value in the global economy, given the direct participation of Ukraine in one of these, actualizes the research topic. The purpose is to analyze global changes that provoke local conflicts and research of the cost of local conflicts in the global economy. Methods. In the research process, a set of research methods and approaches were used: monographic and graphical methods, methods of system analysis, systematization, classification, logical, theoretical and generalizations. Results. The unfair distribution of the benefits of globalization threatens conflicts at the regional, national and international levels. Civil or internal wars became widespread, and these “new” wars became clear only in the context of political, economic, and military globalization. There is a correlation between rising war spending and increasing quantity of conflicts. The cost of conflict in the global economy is extremely high, because in addition to the destruction of families, communities and countries, conflicts have negative global economic consequences. The war in Ukraine has significantly affected its economy and financial system, leading to significant material losses due to the physical destruction of housing, infrastructure, social and industrial facilities. Conclusions. Global leaders and key global actors must act quickly and prevent escalation of local conflict. The protection of civilians and their property and the provision of humanitarian and medical assistance should be a priority for participants involved in existing conflicts. A favorable direction for overcoming local conflicts is “investment in humanity”, namely investment in stability, local infrastructure, in order to diversify resources and increase their efficiency. An audit of the costs and benefits of the parties to the conflict will help to understand that the economically they have short-term gain in times less than the income they would have received in the absence of these conflicts.

Global Economic Consequences of the Latest Federal Reserve Policy Tool

Global Economic Consequences of the Latest Federal Reserve Policy Tool

Forensic Account in Public Finance Management

The growing spate of corruption, fraud and financial crimes with devastating consequences on companies and national economies has compelled regulatory changes across national, regional and even international boundaries. In fact, the general perception was that such vices were largely an internal event, primarily impacting the organization's net earnings or earnings per share (EPS). They were not conceived to have a major impact in the way businesses were conducted. Unfortunately, that perception has considerably changed in recent times. Today, the world understands better with organizations knowing that the negative effect of these offences goes beyond the bottom line of any organisation. Basically, these vices serve to attenuate optimum pursuit of organizational goals; they limit organizational ability to economize on scarce resources, including information processing and decision-making capability, in transaction cost terms; they promote information hoarding, opportunism, bounded rationality and distortions. The associated negative publicity of corporate fraud breeds high reputational risks, stifles business prospects, and threatens business survival. These are the core transactional issues on which a comparative assessment of the rise of fraud examination and forensic accounting in Africa turns. Corruption is rife in state-owned enterprises (SOEs) and government agencies which have become a conduit by Government officials, legislators and politicians to divert funds through inflated contracts, bloated staff strength, and overpriced procurement of goods and services. The fraudulent monies would then be laundered into the financial system through concealed deposits in private pseudonym accounts, ‘non-existent corporate’ accounts, purchase of real estate, or donations to political parties, religious bodies and charities involved in the scheme. (Herbert, Tsegba, Ene and Onyilo 2017:2) Nowadays, the audacity of corruption is not just an act of the mind but a deliberate one perpetrated with total disregard for the law and its consequences. As fraudsters have become more dangerously creative with devastating consequences, so has the configuration of fraud investigation become increasingly sophisticated with encouraging results. Forensic accounting, which has evolved to combat the growing rate and economic consequences of fraud and abuse, financial crimes and corruption, encapsulates specialized knowledge and specific skills to stumble up on the evidence of economic transactions. (Joshi, 2003). Traditional accountants, however effective they may be, are not necessarily forensic accountants. The global economic consequences of recent accounting scandals juxtaposing the increasing spate of fraud and corruption have occasioned new national and international antifraud and anti-money laundering legislations. These have created a huge demand for fraud investigation and forensic accounting work. Increasingly, many professional accountancy firms are establishing specialized fraud examination and forensic accounting units to keep up with the workload. At the same time, organizations and government agencies are finding it difficult to recruit experienced and highly skilled forensic accountants and fraud examiners. (Herbert et al. 2017:5) This last point will be developed in the next paragraph. This paper is addressing the need for forensic accountants with the public finance management reforms. The need and the definition of forensic accounting will be developed. The public financial management is discussed along with various actions for an effective implementation.

Refocusing research ethics paradigms post Ebola: a narrative synthesis

Abstract Background The 2014–15 west Africa outbreak presented a number of challenges in terms of conducting research while managing the outbreak. As virus disease (EVD) rapidly spread throughout west African countries, intense bioethical debate centred around the of using experimental treatments and how best to allocate these resources. We aimed to identify further and practical challenges. Methods We did a narrative synthesis of scholarly literature emerging from research conducted during the west Africa outbreak. Articles from Jan 1, 2014, to Jan 1, 2017, were retrieved via MeSH and keyword searches of five indexes (Embase, JSTOR, PubMed, Philosopher's Index, and CINAHL). Keywords included Ebola with trial or trials or ethics or ethical or study or studies. An initial 2062 articles were reduced to 427 articles after title and abstract screening. After full text screening, 145 articles were uploaded to Nvivo 11 for coding. Eligible articles were analysed inductively and deductively using a team-centred codebook and discussion. Findings Alongside the central dilemmas that emerged from bioethicist commentaries, a separate discussion could be heard: authors argued that the intense focus on short-term, individual bioethical dilemmas during the EVD outbreak detracted from big-picture inequalities: lack of health system and health capacity in Ebola-affected countries. These authors insisted on the moral imperative to rebalance unequal transnational power relations when doing research in the global South. More needed to be done to prevent exploitative research, differing standards of care, and false notions of minimal expertise in African researchers. They also highlighted the need to acknowledge the root historical and political causes of Ebola, such as neoliberal economic policies imposed on west African health infrastructure. In short, it was felt that to talk about and without focusing on structural inequalities and neocolonial policies at the root of this public health disaster would be unethical. Interpretation During an outbreak of incredible proportion, the need to debate short-term, individual-focused bioethical dilemmas must be balanced with a long-term focus at the community and health-system level. Debates in global bioethics have a responsibility to keep uppermost in their analyses local bioethical paradigms and incorporate an understanding of global economic consequences on health infrastructure and trust building. To move forward, global health needs to prioritise building trustworthy systems that embody solidarity and global justice. Funding R2HC: an ELRHA (Wellcome Trust/DFID/Save the Children) programme.

Temperature effects on productivity and factor reallocation: Evidence from a half million chinese manufacturing plants

This paper uses detailed production data from a half million Chinese manufacturing plants over 1998–2007 to estimate the effects of temperature on firm-level total factor productivity (TFP), factor inputs, and output. We detect an inverted U-shaped relationship between temperature and TFP and show that it primarily drives the temperature-output effect. Both labor- and capital- intensive firms exhibit sensitivity to high temperatures. By mid 21st century, if no additional adaptation were to occur, we project that climate change will reduce Chinese manufacturing output annually by 12%, equivalent to a loss of $39.5 billion in 2007 dollars. This implies substantial local and global economic consequences as the Chinese manufacturing sector produces 32% of national GDP and supplies 12% of global exports.

Harnessing the uncertainty monster: Putting quantitative constraints on the intergenerational social discount rate

There is broad consensus among economists that unmitigated climate change will ultimately have adverse global economic consequences, that the costs of inaction will likely outweigh the cost of taking action, and that social planners should therefore put a price on carbon. However, there is considerable debate and uncertainty about the appropriate value of the social discount rate, that is the extent to which future damages should be discounted relative to mitigation costs incurred now. We briefly review the ethical issues surrounding the social discount rate and then report a simulation experiment that constrains the value of the discount rate by considering 4 sources of uncertainty and ambiguity: Scientific uncertainty about the extent of future warming, social uncertainty about future population and future economic development, political uncertainty about future mitigation trajectories, and ethical ambiguity about how much the welfare of future generations should be valued today. We compute a certainty-equivalent declining discount rate that accommodates all those sources of uncertainty and ambiguity. The forward (instantaneous) discount rate converges to a value near 0% by century's end and the spot (horizon) discount rate drops below 2% by 2100 and drops below previous estimates by 2070.

IDENTIFICATION OF THE IMPACT OF GLOBALIZATION ON THE DEVELOPMENT OF ACCOUNTING METHODOLOGY

The relevance of the research consists in the significant lag behind the economies of post-Soviet countries from countries of the world, which play the role of driving forces of global economic globalization. Incomplete transformation of the institution of property rights, including the rights to specific factors of production, distorted perception of the state participation in the regulation of economic relationships, cause a fragmentary reflection of facts of business life of business units by the accounting system. This shortcoming can be eliminated by identifying the advantages, feasibility of the counterstand and measures to involve the economy of Ukraine into the process of economic globalization, as well as determining the priority trends of the transformation of the property institution with the subsequent revision of the accounting methodology. The purpose of the research was to identify the impact of globalization on the development of accounting methodology due to institutional changes in property ownership in the field of management and outline the prerequisites for recognizing the rent as an accounting object. The methodological basis of the research is the dialectical method of knowledge of the essence, preconditions, and consequences of economic globalization as a whole, as well as for its individual subjects; general scientific methods of scientific knowledge (analysis, abstraction, synthesis, generalization) of possible influence of fundamentals and ideas of institutional theory, agency theory, and rent theory on the accounting methodology in order to outline grounds for recognizing the rent as a component of the income of a business unit. Scientific results. It is established that the development of globalization processes was accompanied by significant transformations of property relations and changing approaches to the analysis of activities, in particular, with regard to the use of resources, distribution and redistribution of income. Solving the problems associated with qualitative characteristics of accounting information depends on the implementation of accounting principles, in particular, the principle of the predominance of substance over form. The possibility of its practical application depends on the implementation of the fundamentals and ideas of institutional theory, agency theory and rent theory at the level of the accounting methodology. The stated approach will precondition a certain change in the economic status of a business unit, making it the owner or user of resources, taking into account the availability of certain elements of property rights, and will provide grounds for consideration of economic processes associated with the use of certain resources, the manifestation of rental relations, and the recognition of the income from them as a rent. Taking into consideration the fact that rent is one of the factors of production, theoretical researches in this field should be considered as a basis for research of trends of accounting development, in particular, as to the principles and criteria for recognition of income and assets. The practical significance of the research consists in the development of an income accounting methodology and the determination of financial results of the economic activity, as well as the formation of information support for analysing business unit competitiveness and determining its financial sustainability. Significance/originality. The obtained scientific results will form the prospects for further researches, which will consist in identifying the legal preconditions for rent accounting and determining the trends of the transformation of the property institution. This will contribute to the significant social and economic development of countries whose economies have long been in the command and administrative management format, as well as to the legal recognition of the actual economic preconditions for rent accounting.

El Apando y la puesta en crisis novelesca y fílmica de la racionalidad occidental como denuncia del sistema social

The article proposes that in the two versions of The Apando, both novel and film, a moment of crisis of the fundaments of rationality and its totalizing correlates are being displayed from different angles: the staging of the optic perspective of the geometral individual, the critic of de traditional discourse of the nation, and the approach of the prisoned confinement as an extension of the prison that the world is. Through diverse discursive strategies it is produced a subversion of realistic codes, in the frame of a denunciation of the oppression and the violence of the contemporary social system. The stories introduce us in to what will be, decades later, the representation of the drug trafficking world and the consequences of economic globalization in Latin America.

Global economic consequences of deploying bioenergy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS)

Bioenergy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS) is considered a potential source of net negative carbon emissions and, if deployed at sufficient scale, could help reduce carbon dioxide emissions and concentrations. However, the viability and economic consequences of large-scale BECCS deployment are not fully understood. We use the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM) integrated assessment model to explore the potential global and regional economic impacts of BECCS. As a negative-emissions technology, BECCS would entail a net subsidy in a policy environment in which carbon emissions are taxed. We show that by mid-century, in a world committed to limiting climate change to 2 °C, carbon tax revenues have peaked and are rapidly approaching the point where climate mitigation is a net burden on general tax revenues. Assuming that the required policy instruments are available to support BECCS deployment, we consider its effects on global trade patterns of fossil fuels, biomass, and agricultural products. We find that in a world committed to limiting climate change to 2 °C, the absence of CCS harms fossil-fuel exporting regions, while the presence of CCS, and BECCS in particular, allows greater continued use and export of fossil fuels. We also explore the relationship between carbon prices, food-crop prices and use of BECCS. We show that the carbon price and biomass and food crop prices are directly related. We also show that BECCS reduces the upward pressure on food crop prices by lowering carbon prices and lowering the total biomass demand in climate change mitigation scenarios. All of this notwithstanding, many challenges, both technical and institutional, remain to be addressed before BECCS can be deployed at scale.

Global economic consequences of selected surgical diseases: a modelling study.

The surgical burden of disease is substantial, but little is known about the associated economic consequences. We estimate the global macroeconomic impact of the surgical burden of disease due to injury, neoplasm, digestive diseases, and maternal and neonatal disorders from two distinct economic perspectives. We obtained mortality rate estimates for each disease for the years 2000 and 2010 from the Institute of Health Metrics and Evaluation Global Burden of Disease 2010 study, and estimates of the proportion of the burden of the selected diseases that is surgical from a paper by Shrime and colleagues. We first used the value of lost output (VLO) approach, based on the WHO's Projecting the Economic Cost of Ill-Health (EPIC) model, to project annual market economy losses due to these surgical diseases during 2015-30. EPIC attempts to model how disease affects a country's projected labour force and capital stock, which in turn are related to losses in economic output, or gross domestic product (GDP). We then used the value of lost welfare (VLW) approach, which is conceptually based on the value of a statistical life and is inclusive of non-market losses, to estimate the present value of long-run welfare losses resulting from mortality and short-run welfare losses resulting from morbidity incurred during 2010. Sensitivity analyses were performed for both approaches. During 2015-30, the VLO approach projected that surgical conditions would result in losses of 1·25% of potential GDP, or $20·7 trillion (2010 US$, purchasing power parity) in the 128 countries with data available. When expressed as a proportion of potential GDP, annual GDP losses were greatest in low-income and middle-income countries, with up to a 2·5% loss in output by 2030. When total welfare losses are assessed (VLW), the present value of economic losses is estimated to be equivalent to 17% of 2010 GDP, or $14·5 trillion in the 175 countries assessed with this approach. Neoplasm and injury account for greater than 95% of total economic losses with each approach, but maternal, digestive, and neonatal disorders, which represent only 4% of losses in high-income countries with the VLW approach, contribute to 26% of losses in low-income countries. The macroeconomic impact of surgical disease is substantial and inequitably distributed. When paired with the growing number of favourable cost-effectiveness analyses of surgical interventions in low-income and middle-income countries, our results suggest that building surgical capacity should be a global health priority. US National Institutes of Health/National Cancer Institute.

International Trade and Tax Agreements May be Coordinated, but not Reconciled

A recent WTO case held the U.S.' export tax subsidies illegal. Despite strong political resistance, which fed a long and costly legislative process, the U.S. recently repealed these subsidies. This case and the U.S. reaction revealed that although the U.S. is the single super economic power, it is not as dominant a player as some portray it. The case also shed light on the tension between the present international trade and tax regimes and the difficulty of applying WTO law to income tax measures. This tension did not escalate earlier mainly because countries tended not to use their income tax systems for protectionism. This article suggests that the use of tax systems to protect domestic interests may increase as a consequence of economic globalization. As a result, the current disconnect between the international trade and tax regimes shall cause both regimes to be challenged, as they may both apply in some cases with different and conflicting results. The article observes that the international trade and tax regimes cannot be simply reconciled or somehow meshed together, yet, it argues that their policies could (and should) be coordinated, with some adjustments made to the present legal constructs. It suggests that such coordination would benefit from the establishment of an international tax organization, which shall be responsible to making the evolving international tax regime more compatible with the international trade regime (but not part of the WTO). The article analyzes and rejects other solutions, primarily the one I call the tax expenditure solution, which is based on the contention, rejected in this article, that the international tax and trade regimes do not conflict, which proponents are willing to subject some aspects of income tax laws to WTO scrutiny as they are, without any adjustments. Finally, the article argues that coordinating international tax and international trade policies may be beneficial to both regimes even apart from the solution of the aforementioned incongruity.

Chinese migrant entrepreneurs in Budapest: changing entrepreneurial effects and forms

PurposeThis paper seeks to explore the migration dynamics that have characterized Chinese immigration in Budapest and the migrants' understanding of their own position in relation to the Chinese diaspora. The paper also aims to discuss the interaction of the local economy and resources of the Chinese migrants to form viable network communities.Design/methodology/approachThe ideas of market embeddedness and the critical role of market opportunities are critically evaluated in the context of local practices. The paper seeks to show that the “new” entrepreneur is an active and creative social actor able to utilize, mobilize and control resources in different countries to achieve business opportunities and growth for him/herself.FindingsIt is shown that globalization has spawned “new” transnational spaces and enabled migrant Chinese entrepreneurs to thrive and grow their businesses. This is a new trend and clearly suggests that a qualitatively different migration trajectory is evolving; and theoretically, analysts of globalization and entrepreneurial development have to better account for the different trajectories of entrepreneurial forms.Originality/valueThe paper suggests that this “new” migrant entrepreneurship trend is qualitatively different and marks a “new” development and it is a consequence of economic globalization and the transnationalization of business and economic activities.

Can economic globalization lead to a more just society?

We briefly review the recent literature on globalization, and present empirical evidence showing that economic globalization has been correlated with higher economic growth and lower poverty rates. We then evaluate the consequences of economic globalization in light of standards of commutative justice as Smith articulated, distributive justice as Rawls presented, and practical justice as Kolm explicated. This essay argues that economic globalization fulfills the requirements of all three species of justice.

Globalization and why the ‘time is ripe’ for the transformation of German industrial relations

ABSTRACT Recent scholarship on globalization and industrial relations supports the full gamut of possibilities: that globalization constrains, strengthens, or has nothing to do with industrialized-country bargaining institutions and outcomes. But most empirical work focuses on direct connections between outcomes and trade and/or direct investment flows, thus discounting the role of threatened exit and competition, or of indirect links involving employers and employer organization and strategy. This paper studies the 2003 campaign for the East–West equalization of conditions in the German metal industry, and finds that globalization has affected the bargaining outcome much more than standard accounts suggest. First, the Eastern EU-enlargement—an element of globalization—created a ‘now or never’ atmosphere that helped to spark the union's initiative. Employers' vehement opposition was frequently clothed in concerns about labor costs, emphasizing losses in international competitiveness and/or jobs to low-wage countries. And employers exercised frequent exit threats that were instrumental in splitting workforces by inducing fears and in instilling an anti-union mood. Finally, the bargaining round inspired large firms to question the central bargaining institution, thereby subordinating social peace to the goal of defeating IG Metall. This and subsequent developments in West Germany point to a transformation of German industrial relations as a partial consequence of economic globalization.

Immigration to Ghana

The globalization of international labor migration is manifest in all countries now engaging in migration systems that are growing in size and complexity and producing an increasing diversity of flows. Furthermore, many of the processes that create and drive these systems operate on a worldwide basis, the consequence of economic globalization, capital mobility and widespread realization by governments that human resources can be traded for profit like any other resource. This paper looks at Ghana's immigration policy in the light of its economic situation. It characterizes Ghana's immigration policy as geared towards using immigration to attract critical foreign investment, transfer of technology and human resource capital/skills for socio-economic development. Running concurrently is the policy to prevent illegal immigration, transnational crime, economic exploitation, social corruption and human trafficking. The paper concludes that when the economic situation of Ghana was buoyant in the 1960s it attracted many immigrants especially from neighboring West African countries, however when the country's economy saw a down turn, immigrants were used as a convenient scapegoat and many were expelled. The irony though is that while the current poor economic situation of Ghana has made Ghanaians to immigrate to other countries, the political stability of the country does attract other West Africans and non-Africans and it is affording the country the opportunity to streamline its immigration and citizenship laws.

Early action on climate change

The Stern Review was commissioned by the Treasury in July 2005 to examine the economics of climate change. It warns of the global economic consequences of failing to act on climate change and urges global action on both mitigation and adaptation. To be at least 60% decarbonized by 2050, the power sector needs to adopt such strategies as carbon pricing through taxation, emissions trading and/or regulation, international cooperation in boosting low carbon technology, research and development, price signals and markets for carbon, and action to remove barriers to energy efficiency, and to inform, educate and persuade individuals about what they can do to respond to climate change.