Global Earthquake Catalogs Research Articles

A New Statistical Perspective on Båth’s Law

Abstract The empirical Båth’s law states that the average magnitude difference (ΔM) between a mainshock and its strongest aftershock is ∼1.2, independent of the size of the mainshock. Although this observation can generally be explained by a scaling of aftershock productivity with mainshock magnitude in combination with a Gutenberg–Richter frequency–magnitude distribution, estimates of ΔM may be preferable because they are directly related to the most interesting information, namely the magnitudes of the main events, without relying on assumptions. However, a major challenge in calculating this value is the bias introduced by missing data points when the strongest aftershock is below the observed cut-off magnitude. Ignoring missing values leads to a systematic error because the data points removed are those with particularly large magnitude differences ΔM. The error can be minimized by restricting the statistics to mainshocks that are at least 2 magnitude units above the cutoff, but then the sample size is strongly reduced. This work provides an innovative approach for modeling ΔM by adapting methods for time-to-event data, which often suffer from incomplete observations (censoring). In doing so, we adequately account for unobserved values and estimate a fully parametric distribution of the magnitude differences ΔM for mainshocks in a global earthquake catalog. Our results suggest that magnitude differences are best modeled by the Gompertz distribution and that larger ΔM are expected at increasing depths and higher heat flows.

Global Characteristics of Observable Foreshocks for Large Earthquakes

AbstractForeshocks are the only currently widely identified precursory seismic behavior, yet their utility and even identifiability are problematic, in part because of extreme variation in behavior. Here, we establish some global trends that help identify the expected frequency of foreshocks as well the type of earthquake most prone to foreshocks. We establish these tendencies using the global earthquake catalog of the U.S. Geological Survey National Earthquake Information Center with a completeness level of magnitude 5 and mainshocks with Mw≥7.0. Foreshocks are identified using three clustering algorithms to address the challenge of distinguishing foreshocks from background activity. The methods give a range of 15%–43% of large mainshocks having at least one foreshock but a narrower range of 13%–26% having at least one foreshock with magnitude within two units of the mainshock magnitude. These observed global foreshock rates are similar to regional values for a completeness level of magnitude 3 using the same detection conditions. The foreshock sequences have distinctive characteristics with the global composite population b-values being lower for foreshocks than for aftershocks, an attribute that is also manifested in synthetic catalogs computed by epidemic-type aftershock sequences, which intrinsically involves only cascading processes. Focal mechanism similarity of foreshocks relative to mainshocks is more pronounced than for aftershocks. Despite these distinguishing characteristics of foreshock sequences, the conditions that promote high foreshock productivity are similar to those that promote high aftershock productivity. For instance, a modestly higher percentage of interplate mainshocks have foreshocks than intraplate mainshocks, and reverse faulting events slightly more commonly have foreshocks than normal or strike-slip-faulting mainshocks. The western circum-Pacific is prone to having slightly more foreshock activity than the eastern circum-Pacific.

Active Faults Revealed and New Constraints on Their Seismogenic Depth from a High-Resolution Regional Focal Mechanism Catalog in Myanmar (2016–2021)

ABSTRACTWe derive a new earthquake focal mechanism catalog for 86 Mw>4.0 earthquakes that occurred in the Myanmar region from 2016 to 2021. We apply the generalized Cut-and-Paste inversion method to a new set of regional broadband waveform data to obtain the earthquake focal mechanism and centroid depth with uncertainties estimated in a bootstrapping manner. Compared with global earthquake catalogs, our results are better aligned with mapped, active faults and reveal seismic activity along unmapped, blind faults. Our new catalog shows that the Sagaing Fault is more active in its northern segment with deeper seismogenic zone (∼27 km) compared to its southern segment that has a shallower seismogenic zone (∼10 km), sandwiching a seismic gap in its central segment. Earthquakes that occurred on the unmapped, blind faults beneath the Central Myanmar Basin at shallow depths (3–12 km) suggest a dominating northeast–southwest compressional stress field. Shallow earthquakes beneath the Indo-Myanmar Range (IMR) are rare, instead, north–south-oriented strike-slip faults are active within the deep accretionary wedge or lower crust of the Myanmar plate between depths of 20 and 40 km. At the eastern edge of the IMR, earthquakes with high-angle thrust mechanisms occurred between depths of 30 and 48 km, likely along steep faults separating the accretionary wedge from the Myanmar forearc crust. High-resolution intraslab focal mechanisms show that to the north of 22° N, slab deformation is dominated by strike-slip earthquakes with subvertical fault planes down to a depth of ∼25 km beneath the slab, suggesting lateral shear within the slab due to the northward motion of the Indian plate. To the south, more normal-faulting earthquakes suggest a stronger role of plate-bending processes in the slab deformation.

A Global Catalog of Calibrated Earthquake Locations

Abstract We produced a globally distributed catalog of earthquakes and nuclear explosions with calibrated hypocenters, referred to as the Global Catalog of Calibrated Earthquake Locations (GCCEL). This dataset currently contains 18,782 events in 289 clusters with >3.2 million arrival times observed at 19,258 stations. The term “calibrated” refers to the property that the hypocenters are minimally biased by unknown Earth structure. In addition, we calculate uncertainties using empirically determined variability of the arrival-time data itself, specific to each calibrated cluster of hypocenters. Outliers in the arrival-time dataset are removed based on measured variability of the data. In each cluster, we estimate the empirically determined uncertainty for each set of station-phase arrival times. We use a version of the hypocentroidal decomposition multiple event relocation algorithm specifically adapted for calibrated relocations of clusters of seismic events. Most clusters are calibrated by fitting the subset of direct crustal first arrivals (Pg and Sg) with a locally appropriate travel-time model to estimate the cluster hypocentroid. A few clusters are calibrated by aligning the pattern of relative locations in space and time with one or more events for which a ground-truth hypocenter is available from an independent source with known uncertainty, such as a nuclear explosion. Epicentral uncertainties in GCCEL typically range from 1 to 5 km with a 90% confidence interval. Most events have depth constraint from one or more sources, usually with an uncertainty of ≤5 km. GCCEL is a significant resource for research at local, regional, and global scales because it provides minimally biased absolute hypocenters, meaningful associated error estimates, and curated arrival times as a reference dataset that can be used as prior constraints in the development of new regional, national, and global earthquake catalogs; validation of new location techniques; and the generation of advanced Earth models.

The Geodetic Centroid (gCent) Catalog: Global Earthquake Monitoring with Satellite Imaging Geodesy

ABSTRACT Remote sensing geodetic observations (Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar [InSAR] and optical correlation [“pixel tracking”]) serve an increasingly diverse and important role in earthquake monitoring and response. This study introduces the Geodetic Centroid (gCent) catalog—an earthquake catalog derived solely from space-based geodetic observations—and analysis of 74 earthquakes (Mw 4.3–7.4) imaged from 1 August 2019 to 01 February 2022. For gCent, we use InSAR and optical correlation observations derived from the Sentinel-1 satellites and various publicly available optical satellites to systematically image all global earthquakes Mw 5.5 or larger and shallower than 25 km, Mw 7.0 or larger at any depth, and other high-impact earthquakes or seismic events of special interest. We invert surface displacements from successfully imaged earthquakes for the location, orientation, and dimensions of a single slipping fault patch that describes the centroid characteristics of the earthquake. These centroid models, in turn, are compiled into a catalog and used in U.S. Geological Survey/Advanced National Seismic System (ANSS) operational earthquake response products such as ShakeMaps and finite-fault models. We provide a comparison of the gCent catalog to the ANSS Comprehensive Catalog and Global Centroid Moment Tensor (Global CMT) catalog to compare reported locations, depths, and magnitudes. We find that global earthquake catalogs not only generally provide reasonably comparable locations (within 10 km on average), but also they systematically overestimate depth that may have implications for earthquake shaking predictions based solely on earthquake origin information. Geodetic magnitudes are comparable to seismically inferred magnitudes, indicating that gCent models are unlikely to be systematically biased by the presence of postseismic deformation. We additionally highlight limitations of the gCent catalog induced by both the limitations of remote sensing imaging of earthquakes and our imposition of a simplified earthquake source description that does not include spatially distributed slip.

A New Smoothed Seismicity Approach to Include Aftershocks and Foreshocks in Spatial Earthquake Forecasting: Application to the Global Mw ≥ 5.5 Seismicity

Seismicity-based earthquake forecasting models have been primarily studied and developed over the past twenty years. These models mainly rely on seismicity catalogs as their data source and provide forecasts in time, space, and magnitude in a quantifiable manner. In this study, we presented a technique to better determine future earthquakes in space based on spatially smoothed seismicity. The improvement’s main objective is to use foreshock and aftershock events together with their mainshocks. Time-independent earthquake forecast models are often developed using declustered catalogs, where smaller-magnitude events regarding their mainshocks are removed from the catalog. Declustered catalogs are required in the probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) to hold the Poisson assumption that the events are independent in time and space. However, as highlighted and presented by many recent studies, removing such events from seismic catalogs may lead to underestimating seismicity rates and, consequently, the final seismic hazard in terms of ground shaking. Our study also demonstrated that considering the complete catalog may improve future earthquakes’ spatial forecast. To do so, we adopted two different smoothed seismicity methods: (1) the fixed smoothing method, which uses spatially uniform smoothing parameters, and (2) the adaptive smoothing method, which relates an individual smoothing distance for each earthquake. The smoothed seismicity models are constructed by using the global earthquake catalog with Mw ≥ 5.5 events. We reported progress on comparing smoothed seismicity models developed by calculating and evaluating the joint log-likelihoods. Our resulting forecast shows a significant information gain concerning both fixed and adaptive smoothing model forecasts. Our findings indicate that complete catalogs are a notable feature for increasing the spatial variation skill of seismicity forecasts.

Recording earthquakes for tomographic imaging of the mantle beneath the South Pacific by autonomous MERMAID floats

SUMMARYWe present the first 16 months of data returned from a mobile array of 16 freely floating diving instruments, named mermaid for Mobile Earthquake Recording in Marine Areas by Independent Divers, launched in French Polynesia in late 2018. Our 16 are a subset of the 50 mermaid deployed over a number of cruises in this vast and understudied oceanic province as part of the collaborative South Pacific Plume Imaging and Modeling (SPPIM) project, under the aegis of the international EarthScope-Oceans consortium. Our objective is the hydroacoustic recording, from within the oceanic water column, of the seismic wavefield generated by earthquakes worldwide, and the nearly real-time transmission by satellite of these data, collected above and in the periphery of the South Pacific Superswell. This region, characterized by anomalously elevated oceanic crust and myriad seamounts, is believed to be the surface expression of deeply rooted mantle upwellings. Tomographically imaging Earth’s mantle under the South Pacific with data from these novel instruments requires a careful examination of the earthquake-to-mermaid traveltimes of the high-frequency P-wave detections within the windows selected for reporting by the discrimination algorithms on board. We discuss a workflow suitable for a fast-growing mobile sensor database to pick the relevant arrivals, match them to known earthquakes in global earthquake catalogues, calculate their traveltime residuals with respect to global seismic reference models, characterize their quality and estimate their uncertainty. We detail seismicity rates as recorded by mermaid over 16 months, quantify the completeness of our catalogue and discuss magnitude–distance relations of detectability for our network. The projected lifespan of an individual mermaid is 5 yr, allowing us to estimate the final size of the data set that will be available for future study. To prove their utility for seismic tomography we compare mermaid data quality against ‘traditional’ land seismometers and their low-cost Raspberry Shake counterparts, using waveforms recovered from instrumented island stations in the geographic neighbourhood of our floats. Finally, we provide the first analyses of traveltime anomalies for the new ray paths sampling the mantle under the South Pacific.

An improved K-means clustering algorithm for global earthquake catalogs and earthquake magnitude prediction

The occurrences of earthquakes have no any explicit warning, and earthquake magnitude prediction is still extremely challenging now. Therefore, this study proposes a seismic prediction model based on clustering of global earthquake data. First, an improved K-means clustering algorithm for global earthquake catalogs is proposed. Traditional K-means clustering has several limitations, i.e., the number of clusters needs to be initialized, the initial cluster centers are arbitrarily selected, and there is currently no magnitude parameter in the K-means clustering algorithm. To improve the algorithm, this study employs the space–time–magnitude (STM) distance and then proposes a maximum–minimum STM distance for the selection of the initial cluster centers. Additionally, the sum of squares error, Davies–Bouldin index, Calinski–Harabasz index, and silhouette coefficient are applied to determine the number of clusters. Subsequently, a seismic prediction model based on the clustering result combined with an artificial neural network is presented. Application of the improved clustering algorithm to the global seismic catalog from 1900–2019 obtained from the United States Geological Survey reveals better clustering accuracy than the traditional K-means algorithm and is also effective for seismic risk analysis in the local region. Furthermore, the seismic prediction model based on the clustering result also exhibits good performance, which has practical significance and reference value for future predictions of earthquake magnitude.

On q-pareto distribution: some properties and application to earthquakes

Based on the superstatistical formalism, we propose a new probability distribution. By means of a transformation of the q-exponential, we construct the q-Pareto distribution by Beck formalism. Some properties of this distribution are studied which show that the q-Pareto is a proper generalization of the Pareto distribution. By applying this new q-distribution to larger earthquakes, we show its goodness-of-fit to model great earthquakes recorded in global earthquake catalogs. It is noted that a small change in the entropic $$q_w$$ index associated with the moment magnitude implies an exponential change in the corresponding $$q_0$$ index associated with the seismic moments. Our results suggest that q-Pareto distribution is a better candidate than Pareto distribution when modeling extreme values.

Seismic gaps and intraplate seismicity around Rodrigues Ridge (Indian Ocean) from time domain array analysis

Abstract. Rodrigues Ridge connects the Réunion hotspot track with the Central Indian Ridge (CIR) and has been suggested to represent the surface expression of a sub-lithospheric flow channel. From global earthquake catalogues, the seismicity in the region has been associated mainly with events related to the fracture zones at the CIR. However, some segments of the CIR appear void of seismic events. Here, we report on the seismicity recorded at a temporary array of 10 seismic stations operating on Rodrigues Island from September 2014 to June 2016. The array analysis was performed in the time domain by time shifting and stacking the complete waveforms. Event distances were estimated based on a 1-D velocity model and the travel time differences between S and P wave arrivals. We detected and located 63 new events that were not reported by the global networks. Most of the events (51) are located off the CIR and can be classified as intraplate earthquakes. Local magnitudes varied between 1.6 and 3.7. Four seismic clusters were observed that occurred to the west of the spreading segment of the CIR. The Rodrigues Ridge appeared to be aseismic during the period of operation. The lack of seismic activity along both Rodrigues Ridge and the sections of the CIR to the east of Rodrigues may be explained by partially molten upper-mantle material, possibly in relation to the proposed material flow between the Réunion plume and the CIR.

Evidence for Synchronization in the Global Earthquake Catalog

AbstractPhase alignment (synchronization) is a generalized property of interacting oscillators. If such interactions apply to earthquakes, they should manifest as time‐dependent variations in earthquake productivity organized according to a characteristic elastic loading period. Defining this period as renewal interval, the time required to accumulate the elastic potential energy released in a rupture, gives a consistent scaling property that can be used to search for temporal organization. We test for the expected structure in earthquake productivity using three different statistical tools optimized for different temporal sensitivities: Schuster spectra for events with short renewal intervals (0–25 years), Fourier power spectra for events with short and intermediate renewal intervals (0–100 years), and topological data analysis (TDA) for events with long renewal intervals (>100 years). All three indicate that earthquakes are organized in time according to renewal interval. Accounting for such unsteady temporal organization may improve forecasting skill by providing time‐dependent event probabilities.

Investigating the consistency of online earthquake catalogs of Turkey and surroundings

There are several national and international online earthquake catalogs publishing the focal parameters of earthquakes in Turkey and surroundings. While international seismological centers provide global earthquake catalogs with data from around the world, as well as their own solutions, local and regional seismic centers are confined to publish regional catalogs with solutions derived exclusively from their own data. In this study, we investigate the consistency of the focal parameters provided by national and international agencies for a large number of earthquakes which occurred in and around Turkey during the period 2000–2017. Agencies that analyze earthquakes in this region on a regular basis and whose data are used in this study are the Bogazici University–Kandilli Observatory and Earthquake Research Institution (BOUN–KOERI; “KOERI” from now on) and the Disaster and Emergency Management Authority, Earthquake Research Directorate (AFAD–ERD; “AFAD” from now on) as well as one of the leading international seismological agencies, the International Seismological Centre (ISC). The study area covers the region bounded by the coordinates 35–42° N and 26–45° E. Estimations of origin times, epicentral coordinates, focal depths, and magnitudes, as well as their uncertainties, provided by AFAD, KOERI, and ISC, are examined. The magnitude values of these three centers are homogenized and checked against each other. Furthermore, the completeness (with regard to magnitude) of each of the tested catalogs is defined, as well as its variation in space and with time. Finally, it is shown that the locations provided by KOERI and AFAD are similar to each other, while ISC solutions are closer to those of KOERI.

Towards Global Volcano Monitoring Using Multisensor Sentinel Missions and Artificial Intelligence: The MOUNTS Monitoring System

Most of the world’s 1500 active volcanoes are not instrumentally monitored, resulting in deadly eruptions which can occur without observation of precursory activity. The new Sentinel missions are now providing freely available imagery with unprecedented spatial and temporal resolutions, with payloads allowing for a comprehensive monitoring of volcanic hazards. We here present the volcano monitoring platform MOUNTS (Monitoring Unrest from Space), which aims for global monitoring, using multisensor satellite-based imagery (Sentinel-1 Synthetic Aperture Radar SAR, Sentinel-2 Short-Wave InfraRed SWIR, Sentinel-5P TROPOMI), ground-based seismic data (GEOFON and USGS global earthquake catalogues), and artificial intelligence (AI) to assist monitoring tasks. It provides near-real-time access to surface deformation, heat anomalies, SO2 gas emissions, and local seismicity at a number of volcanoes around the globe, providing support to both scientific and operational communities for volcanic risk assessment. Results are visualized on an open-access website where both geocoded images and time series of relevant parameters are provided, allowing for a comprehensive understanding of the temporal evolution of volcanic activity and eruptive products. We further demonstrate that AI can play a key role in such monitoring frameworks. Here we design and train a Convolutional Neural Network (CNN) on synthetically generated interferograms, to operationally detect strong deformation (e.g., related to dyke intrusions), in the real interferograms produced by MOUNTS. The utility of this interdisciplinary approach is illustrated through a number of recent eruptions (Erta Ale 2017, Fuego 2018, Kilauea 2018, Anak Krakatau 2018, Ambrym 2018, and Piton de la Fournaise 2018–2019). We show how exploiting multiple sensors allows for assessment of a variety of volcanic processes in various climatic settings, ranging from subsurface magma intrusion, to surface eruptive deposit emplacement, pre/syn-eruptive morphological changes, and gas propagation into the atmosphere. The data processed by MOUNTS is providing insights into eruptive precursors and eruptive dynamics of these volcanoes, and is sharpening our understanding of how the integration of multiparametric datasets can help better monitor volcanic hazards.

Abundant aftershock sequence of the 2015 Mw7.5 Hindu Kush intermediate-depth earthquake

The 2015 M_w7.5 Hindu Kush earthquake occurred at a depth of 213 km beneath the Hindu Kush region of Afghanistan. While many early aftershocks were missing from the global earthquake catalogues, this sequence was recorded continuously by eight broad-band stations within 500 km. Here we use a waveform matching technique to systematically detect earthquakes around the main shock. More than 3000 events are detected within 35 d after the main shock, as compared with 42 listed in the Advanced National Seismic System catalogue (or 196 in the International Seismological Centre catalogue). The aftershock sequence generally follows the Omori's law with a decay constant p = 0.92. We also apply the recently developed double-pair double-difference technique to relocate all detected aftershocks. Most of them are located to the west of the hypocentre of the main shock, consistent with the westward propagation of the main-shock rupture. The aftershocks outline a nearly vertical southward dipping plane, which matches well with one of the nodal planes of the main shock. We conclude that the aftershock sequence of this intermediate-depth earthquake shares many similarities with those for shallow earthquakes and infer that there are some common mechanisms responsible for shallow and intermediate-depth earthquakes.

Active backstop faults in the Mentawai region of Sumatra, Indonesia, revealed by teleseismic broadband waveform modeling

Two earthquake sequences that affected the Mentawai islands offshore of central Sumatra in 2005 (Mw 6.9) and 2009 (Mw 6.7) have been highlighted as evidence for active backthrusting of the Sumatran accretionary wedge. However, the geometry of the activated fault planes is not well resolved due to large uncertainties in the locations of the mainshocks and aftershocks. We refine the locations and focal mechanisms of medium size events (Mw > 4.5) of these two earthquake sequences through broadband waveform modeling. In addition to modeling the depth-phases for accurate centroid depths, we use teleseismic surface wave cross-correlation to precisely relocate the relative horizontal locations of the earthquakes. The refined catalog shows that the 2005 and 2009 “backthrust” sequences in Mentawai region actually occurred on steeply (∼60 degrees) landward-dipping faults (Masilo Fault Zone) that intersect the Sunda megathrust beneath the deepest part of the forearc basin, contradicting previous studies that inferred slip on a shallowly seaward-dipping backthrust. Static slip inversion on the newly-proposed fault fits the coseismic GPS offsets for the 2009 mainshock equally well as previous studies, but with a slip distribution more consistent with the mainshock centroid depth (∼20 km) constrained from teleseismic waveform inversion. Rupture of such steeply dipping reverse faults within the forearc crust is rare along the Sumatra–Java margin. We interpret these earthquakes as ‘unsticking’ of the Sumatran accretionary wedge along a backstop fault separating imbricated material from the stronger Sunda lithosphere. Alternatively, the reverse faults may have originated as pre-Miocene normal faults of the extended continental crust of the western Sunda margin. Our waveform modeling approach can be used to further refine global earthquake catalogs in order to clarify the geometries of active faults.

Tidal triggering of earthquakes suggests poroelastic behavior on the San Andreas Fault

Tidal triggering of earthquakes is hypothesized to provide quantitative information regarding the fault's stress state, poroelastic properties, and may be significant for our understanding of seismic hazard. To date, studies of regional or global earthquake catalogs have had only modest successes in identifying tidal triggering. We posit that the smallest events that may provide additional evidence of triggering go unidentified and thus we developed a technique to improve the identification of very small magnitude events. We identify events applying a method known as inter-station seismic coherence where we prioritize detection and discrimination over characterization. Here we show tidal triggering of earthquakes on the San Andreas Fault. We find the complex interaction of semi-diurnal and fortnightly tidal periods exposes both stress threshold and critical state behavior. Our findings reveal earthquake nucleation processes and pore pressure conditions – properties of faults that are difficult to measure, yet extremely important for characterizing earthquake physics and seismic hazards.

Earthquake potential revealed by tidal influence on earthquake size–frequency statistics

Tidal triggering of earthquakes is debated. Analysis of global earthquake catalogue data compared with tidal stress histories suggests that the probability of a large earthquake is greater during times of maximum tidal stress amplitude.

Earthquake rate and magnitude distributions of great earthquakes for use in global forecasts

We have obtained new results in the statistical analysis of global earthquake catalogues with special attention to the largest earthquakes, and we examined the statistical behaviour of earthquake rate variations. These results can serve as an input for updating our recent earthquake forecast, known as the ‘Global Earthquake Activity Rate 1’ model (GEAR1), which is based on past earthquakes and geodetic strain rates. The GEAR1 forecast is expressed as the rate density of all earthquakes above magnitude 5.8 within 70km of sea level everywhere on earth at 0.1 × 0.1 degree resolution, and it is currently being tested by the Collaboratory for Study of Earthquake Predictability. The seismic component of the present model is based on a smoothed version of the Global Centroid Moment Tensor (GCMT) catalogue from 1977 through 2013. The tectonic component is based on the Global Strain Rate Map, a ‘General Earthquake Model’ (GEM) product. The forecast was optimized to fit the GCMT data from 2005 through 2012, but it also fit well the earthquake locations from 1918 to 1976 reported in the International Seismological Centre-Global Earthquake Model (ISC-GEM) global catalogue of instrumental and pre-instrumental magnitude determinations. We have improved the recent forecast by optimizing the treatment of larger magnitudes and including a longer duration (1918–2011) ISC-GEM catalogue of large earthquakes to estimate smoothed seismicity. We revised our estimates of upper magnitude limits, described as corner magnitudes, based on the massive earthquakes since 2004 and the seismic moment conservation principle. The new corner magnitude estimates are somewhat larger than but consistent with our previous estimates. For major subduction zones we find the best estimates of corner magnitude to be in the range 8.9 to 9.6 and consistent with a uniform average of 9.35. Statistical estimates tend to grow with time as larger earthquakes occur. However, by using the moment conservation principle that equates the seismic moment rate with the tectonic moment rate inferred from geodesy and geology, we obtain a consistent estimate of the corner moment largely independent of seismic history. These evaluations confirm the above-mentioned corner magnitude value. The new estimates of corner magnitudes are important both for the forecast part based on seismicity as well as the part based on geodetic strain rates. We examine rate variations as expressed by annual earthquake numbers. Earthquakes larger than magnitude 6.5 obey the Poisson distribution. For smaller events the negative-binomial distribution fits much better because it allows for earthquake clustering.

Imaging active faulting in a region of distributed deformation from the joint clustering of focal mechanisms and hypocentres: Application to the Azores–western Mediterranean region

The matching between linear trends of hypocentres and fault planes indicated by focal mechanisms (FMs) is frequently used to infer the location and geometry of active faults. This practice works well in regions of fast lithospheric deformation, where earthquake patterns are clear and major structures accommodate the bulk of deformation, but typically fails in regions of slow and distributed deformation. We present a new joint FM and hypocentre cluster algorithm that is able to detect systematically the consistency between hypocentre lineations and FMs, even in regions of distributed deformation. We apply the method to the Azores–western Mediterranean region, with particular emphasis on western Iberia. The analysis relies on a compilation of hypocentres and FMs taken from regional and global earthquake catalogues, academic theses and technical reports, complemented by new FMs for western Iberia. The joint clustering algorithm images both well-known and new seismo-tectonic features. The Azores triple junction is characterised by FMs with vertical pressure (P) axes, in good agreement with the divergent setting, and the Iberian domain is characterised by NW–SE oriented P axes, indicating a response of the lithosphere to the ongoing oblique convergence between Nubia and Eurasia. Several earthquakes remain unclustered in the western Mediterranean domain, which may indicate a response to local stresses. The major regions of consistent faulting that we identify are the mid-Atlantic ridge, the Terceira rift, the Trans-Alboran shear zone and the north coast of Algeria. In addition, other smaller earthquake clusters present a good match between epicentre lineations and FM fault planes. These clusters may signal single active faults or wide zones of distributed but consistent faulting. Mainland Portugal is dominated by strike–slip earthquakes with fault planes coincident with the predominant NNE–SSW and WNW–ESE oriented earthquake lineations. Clusters offshore SW Iberia are predominantly strike–slip or reverse, confirming previous suggestions of slip partitioning.

Possible seasonality in large deep‐focus earthquakes

AbstractLarge deep‐focus earthquakes (magnitude > 7.0, depth > 500 km) have exhibited strong seasonality in their occurrence times since the beginning of global earthquake catalogs. Of 60 such events from 1900 to the present, 42 have occurred in the middle half of each year. The seasonality appears strongest in the northwest Pacific subduction zones and weakest in the Tonga region. Taken at face value, the surplus of northern hemisphere summer events is statistically significant, but due to the ex post facto hypothesis testing, the absence of seasonality in smaller deep earthquakes, and the lack of a known physical triggering mechanism, we cannot rule out that the observed seasonality is just random chance. However, we can make a testable prediction of seasonality in future large deep‐focus earthquakes, which, given likely earthquake occurrence rates, should be verified or falsified within a few decades. If confirmed, deep earthquake seasonality would challenge our current understanding of deep earthquakes.