Global Displacement Research Articles

Heterogeneous effects of climate change on displacement-inducing disasters

With an estimated 357.7 million internal displacements caused since 2008, weather-related disasters are a major driver of human mobility worldwide. As climate change is projected to increase the frequency and intensity of extreme weather events in many parts of the world, it is important to better understand how trends in weather patterns related to global warming have affected the intensity of disasters that have caused displacements. Here we combined observational and counterfactual climate data with global internal displacement records to estimate how climate change has affected precipitation and wind speeds at the time and location of floods and storms that led to internal displacements. We estimate that, on average, climate change increased precipitation and decreased wind speeds during such events by +3.7% and − 1.4%, respectively. However, the variability across events is considerable (±28.6 and ± 6.6%, respectively), highlighting the large signal of natural variability of the weather system as compared to the global warming signal. Our results caution against overstating the role of climate change in displacement-inducing disasters in the past, especially compared to socio-economic and development factors of vulnerability and adaptive capacity that determine whether weather-related hazards turn into disasters.’

Combining long short-term memory and shape superposition for estimating moving load-induced global responses of bridges

Recently, a method of estimating the global responses of bridges was introduced, by combining a deep neural network (DNN) and shape superposition method (SSM). This DNN-SSM model demonstrated superior performance to the traditional estimation method based on the least-squares method. However, the application and validation of this approach have been restricted to static problems. For bridges, the dynamic effect induced by the moving load requires consideration. Therefore, this study proposes a long short-term memory (LSTM)-SSM model to improve the estimation performance for dynamic global responses. The LSTM-SSM model consists of LSTM layers, followed by fully connected DNN layers and a post-process part based on SSM. Limited displacement, slope, and strain data were used as the inputs, and the global displacement, slope, and strain were estimated. To validate the effectiveness and improvement of the LSTM-SSM model, a numerical model of a cable-stayed bridge was used to compare the proposed model with the previously developed DNN-SSM model. The validation results indicated that the LSTM-SSM model can provide more accurate estimates of the dynamic global response than DNN-SSM models. Finally, a technique for structural safety monitoring based on the proposed method was introduced.

The Politics of Refugee Resettlement in the Asia Pacific: Belonging and ICT-enabled Transnational Settlement

Abstract This conceptual article examines the interplay of forced displacement and resettlement across the Asia Pacific, situated against the backdrop of unprecedented global displacement, rapid uptake of information communication technologies, and strong border governance regimes. Emphasising the centrality of the politics of belonging, this article distinguishes between refugee resettlement, focused on protection, and the broader concept of refugee settlement as part of a larger project of belonging. Recognising that less than 1 per cent of refugees globally are able to access resettlement pathways every year, we present the implications of ICT-enabled transnational settlement, using New Zealand and Australia’s refugee resettlement programmes to anchor this analysis. By examining ongoing transnational connections, particularly through social media, this article illuminates how refugees can negotiate relationships with nearby and distant places. It outlines a spectrum of opportunities and challenges within resettlement and settlement contexts, transcending traditional territorial boundaries defined by the state and local jurisdictions. This article concludes by considering durable and enduring solutions to forward the possibilities of ICT-enabled transnational settlement as it influences the articulation of safety and belonging in an increasingly interconnected yet unevenly mobile world.

Accuracy assessment of global vertical displacement loading tide models for the equatorial and Indian Ocean

Accuracy assessment of global vertical displacement loading tide models for the equatorial and Indian Ocean

Assessment of left atrial function using tissue motion annular displacement in healthy dogs.

Recently, tissue motion annular displacement by speckle tracking has been shown to be a reliable method for evaluating deformation of the left atrium in healthy dogs. The aim of this study was to investigate whether tissue motion annular displacement is a feasible alternative method for studying left atrial function. One hundred healthy dogs were included. Left atrial function was assessed by tissue motion annular displacement, which was correlated to the left atrial strain and biplane area-length method-derived volumes. Left atrial reservoir function was evaluated by left atrial global tissue motion annular displacement, global left atrial strain and left atrial emptying fraction, while left atrial systolic tissue motion annular displacement and left atrial ejection fraction were used to assess left atrial systolic function. A statistically significant association between body weight and the dependent variables others than age was found. Indexed global and systolic tissue motion annular displacement decreased as body weight increased. Global iTMAD_AIIometric (mm/∛kg) showed a moderate, positive correlation with left atrial emptying fraction and with global left atrial strain. Systolic iTMAD_AIIometric (mm/∛kg) showed a moderate correlation with left atrial ejection fraction. Coefficients of variation for the intraobserver and interobserver analyses were 8.3% and 20.3% for global and 10.5% and 18.9% for systolic tissue motion annular displacement, respectively. Tissue motion annular displacement is a feasible and simple method for the evaluation of left atrial function. Our study documented the effects of body weight on left atrial tissue motion annular displacement, indicating that tissue motion annular displacement must be indexed to body weight. No influence of age or heart rate was observed on tissue motion annular displacement.

Low-degree gravity field coefficients based on inverse GNSS method: insights into hydrological and ice mass change studies

The relative displacements of stations from a global network of Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) sites provide information on global mass transport. In this study, we use 19 years of global GNSS station displacements from the 3rd International GNSS Service reprocessing campaign to estimate the coefficients of the spherical harmonics of the Earth’s gravity field up to degree and order 8 using the inverse GNSS method based on elastic loading theory. The results indicate that the C30 coefficient can be derived based on GNSS station displacements as an alternative to solutions provided by Satellite Laser Ranging (SLR) and Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE). GNSS may support GRACE solutions that face the problems of deriving C30, which has fundamental meaning in estimating ice mass changes in polar regions. The recovery of Antarctic ice sheet mass change from January 2007 to December 2020 based on coefficients replaced by GNSS estimates results in a linear trend of − 152 ± 4 Gt/year, in comparison to − 149 ± 2 Gt/year for the replacement based on SLR from GRACE Technical Note #14. The results indicate that the spatial and seasonal patterns of terrestrial water storage changes derived from GNSS are consistent with those estimated using GRACE/GRACE Follow-On and SLR at a few-millimeter level in the Amazon and Brahmaputra River basin regions.

Automatic High-Resolution Operational Modal Identification of Thin-Walled Structures Supported by High-Frequency Optical Dynamic Measurements.

High-frequency optical dynamic measurement can realize multiple measurement points covering the whole surface of the thin-walled structure, which is very useful for obtaining high-resolution spatial information for damage localization. However, the noise and low calculation efficiency seriously hinder its application to real-time, online structural health monitoring. To this end, this paper proposes a novel high-resolution frequency domain decomposition (HRFDD) modal identification method, combining an optical system with an accelerometer for measuring high-accuracy vibration response and introducing a clustering algorithm for automated identification to improve efficiency. The experiments on the cantilever aluminum plate were carried out to evaluate the effectiveness of the proposed approach. Natural frequency and damping ratios were obtained by the least-squares complex frequency domain (LSCF) method to process the acceleration responses; the high-resolution mode shapes were acquired by the singular value decomposition (SVD) processing of global displacement data collected by high-speed cameras. Finally, the complete set of the first nine order modal parameters for the plate within the frequency range of 0 to 500 Hz has been determined, which is closely consistent with the results obtained from both experimental modal analysis and finite element analysis; the modal parameters could be automatically picked up by the DBSCAN algorithm. It provides an effective method for applying optical dynamic technology to real-time, online structural health monitoring, especially for obtaining high-resolution mode shapes.

Dynamic strain field estimation of fixed offshore support structures using limited acceleration measurements

The strain history affecting the fatigue life of fixed offshore support structures is one of the most important topics in structural monitoring. However, some critical fatigue locations are located below the seabed, and the installation of strain gauges at these locations entails significant maintenance costs. In contrast, acceleration which reflects the vibration characteristics of the structure is an easily accessible and more stable physical parameter. Therefore, this study presents a strain estimation scheme that uses limited acceleration measurements to estimate the dynamic strain field of the fixed offshore support structures. An adaptive displacement reconstruction method is used to obtain the displacements at the master degrees of freedom, then the global displacements are obtained by the evolutionary orthogonal response expansion method, and finally, these displacements are implemented into the numerical software by redefining the boundary conditions to obtain the dynamic strain field. The advantage of the proposed method over the traditional strain-solving forward problem is that it relies solely on measured acceleration and structural geometry information, without requiring displacement, strain, or modal information. The correctness of the proposed method is verified by a numerical jacket platform model with multi-harmonic and non-stationary random excitations. Furthermore, physical experiments under eccentric rotation and hammering excitations are performed to assess the applicability of the proposed method on a wind turbine model equipped with laser displacement and fibre bragg grating sensors as reference measurements. The results show that the proposed method can accurately predict the dynamic strains of jacket platform and wind turbine support structures, while the appropriate agreement between the estimated strains and the numerical results, and the optical measured response is observed, with maximum estimation errors of 1.80% and 4.63%, respectively. Summarily, the application of the approach enables a new type of strain monitoring applicable to fixed offshore support structures.

Creep on the Argentine Precordillera Décollement Following the 2015 Illapel, Chile, Earthquake: Implications for Andean Seismotectonics

AbstractThe Central and South‐Central Andes form a “two‐sided” mountain belt bounded by distinct zones of convergence in the forearc and backarc flanks. Previous geodetic interseismic deformation studies found that the forearc to backarc velocity field is better explained when elastic models allow reverse aseismic slip on the Andes eastern‐flank décollement faults. Here, we extend the earlier interpretation of interseismic motion and argue that normal aseismic creep of the Precordillera décollement is required to explain backarc Global Navigation Satellite System displacements during the co‐ and early postseismic phases of the 2015 Illapel, Chile, earthquake. This model significantly reduces the previously reported overlap between coseismic slip and afterslip on the megathrust of this earthquake, consistent with the expectation that these slip modes are spatially partitioned. These findings have direct implications for estimating recurrence interval and slip rate, and for probabilistic seismic hazard analysis on both sides of the orogen.

Enhancing performance of sandwich panel with three-dimensional orthogonal accordion cores

This study introduces a novel three-dimensional orthogonal accordion structure (3D-OAS) as the cellular core of sandwich panels, achieving multi-directional zero Poisson’s ratio through the orthogonal combination of two-dimensional accordion structures. To analyze its static characteristics effectively, a two-dimensional equivalent Reissner–Mindlin model (2D-ERM) was established utilizing the variational asymptotic method (VAM). The accuracy of 2D-ERM was confirmed by conducting three-point bending tests on 3D-printed specimens and analyzing the in-plane and out-of-plane deformation results of the 3D finite element model (3D-FEM). The comparison of global displacement contours and path-displacement curves between 3D-FEM and 2D-ERM showed a high level of agreement in predicting static deformation. The equivalent stiffness of SP-3D-OAS steadily increased as the inclined angle deviates by 90-degree, irrespective of whether it pertains to the convex or concave angle. Evaluation of deformability in sandwich panels with different cellular core forms revealed superior comprehensive performance in 3D-OAS, followed by 3D-YRS and 3D-XYAS, with a reduction of 16.41% and 17.35% in specific stiffness, respectively. Compared to the 3D-FEM, 2D-ERM significantly reduces computation time without compromising engineering accuracy. The research results provide a useful reference for optimal design of sandwich panels with multi-directional ZPR cellular core.

Thin-walled FRP-concrete-steel tubular tower with a top mass block subjected to lateral impact loading: Experimental study and FE analysis

Thin-walled hollow steel tube towers (HSTs), frequently utilized as a wind turbine tower, are facing challenges such as corrosion and local buckling in their service life. To enhance the anti-corrosion capacity and local buckling resistance, an FRP tube and an annular concrete layer can be employed to protect the HST, thus forming a novel member: thin-walled FRP-concrete-steel tubular towers (TW-FCSTs). Using a horizontal vehicle impact system, this study investigated the impact behavior of five large-scale TW-FCSTs, each with a top mass block to mimic the rotor and nacelle of wind turbine. All specimens were designed with a large diameter (300 mm) and a large void ratio (0.73 or 0.82). The experimental results revealed that: (1) Under lateral impact loading, TW-FCSTs displayed a global flexural failure mode, accompanied by localized concavity damage; (2) The inertial effect was enlarged by the top mass block, affecting the dynamic response of TW-FCSTs; (3) the increase of steel thickness led to higher energy dissipation but lower local deformation; (4) the increase of void ratio resulted in larger local deformation but smaller lateral global displacement. Finally, based on LS-DYNA, FE models were utilized to simulate the dynamic responses of TW-FCSTs with a top mass block.

Intelligent analysis method for the global vertical displacement field of foundation pits in dense karst cave areas

Prior research on excavation in dense karst cave foundation pits has primarily concentrated on evaluating the localized spatio-temporal influence and isolated geological factors. Nonetheless, this approach oversimplifies modeling conditions, thereby limiting its ability to provide a comprehensive understanding of the vertical displacement field. Consequently, this oversimplification can inflate the safety factor and increase project costs. Therefore, we propose a feedforward neural network (FNN), updated with the loop nested optimal iterative method (LNOIM), which incorporates the spatiotemporal characteristics of monitoring points and geological factors to analyze the engineering sensitivity of karst caves. Ultimately, the global foundation pit vertical displacement field was obtained. Our method has been demonstrated to be effective in a foundation pit in South China ((P value) P > 0.050, Cohen's d < 0.200). Furthermore, it has been validated in other cases ((Root Mean Square Error) RMSE = 1.576–2.916). This work provides a new perspective on the accurate reflection of the global vertical displacement state of a foundation pit. Additionally, it enhances the ability to sensitively identify caves in dense karst cave areas, thereby improving the safety of foundation pit works.

Fracture energy of birch in tension perpendicular to grain: experimental evaluation and comparative numerical simulations

The present work has experimentally determined the specific fracture energy of the hardwood species silver birch (Betula pendula), which in recent times has caught increased attention for utilization in structural applications. The single-edge-notched beam loaded in three-point-bending was utilized for evaluating the fracture energy with the work-of-fracture method. In addition to birch, Norway spruce (Picea abies) was utilized as a reference material. The effect of two different geometries of the fracture area for each species was evaluated—one triangular and one rectangular fracture area. It should be noted that the geometry of the fracture area did influence the evaluated fracture energy, and this influence was not consistent between species. This was likely in part due to manufacturing difficulties with the triangular fracture area. In addition to the experimental testing, a numerical 2d-model including linear strain-softening behavior was used for comparative simulations. The numerical 2d-models showed reasonable agreement with the experimental results regarding the global load vs. displacement response, despite their relative simple nature. The specific fracture energy for the spruce specimens was evaluated to 221 J/m2\\documentclass[12pt]{minimal} \\usepackage{amsmath} \\usepackage{wasysym} \\usepackage{amsfonts} \\usepackage{amssymb} \\usepackage{amsbsy} \\usepackage{mathrsfs} \\usepackage{upgreek} \\setlength{\\oddsidemargin}{-69pt} \\begin{document}$$\\hbox {m}^2$$\\end{document} and for the birch specimens to 656 J/m2\\documentclass[12pt]{minimal} \\usepackage{amsmath} \\usepackage{wasysym} \\usepackage{amsfonts} \\usepackage{amssymb} \\usepackage{amsbsy} \\usepackage{mathrsfs} \\usepackage{upgreek} \\setlength{\\oddsidemargin}{-69pt} \\begin{document}$$\\hbox {m}^2$$\\end{document}. Consequently, the present work implies a marked increase in specific fracture energy for birch, compared to spruce. This increase in specific fracture energy could potentially have a large influence on the failure behavior of birch when used in structural applications which is something that needs to be considered in future work.

Super-shear ruptures steered by pre-stress heterogeneities during the 2023 Kahramanmaraş earthquake doublet

The 2023 M7.8 and M7.5 earthquake doublet near Kahramanmaraş, Turkey, provides insight regarding how large earthquakes rupture complex faults. Here we determine the faults geometry using surface ruptures and Synthetic Aperture Radar measurements, and the rupture kinematics from the joint inversion of high-rate Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS), strong-motion waveforms, and GNSS static displacement. The M7.8 event initiated on a splay fault and subsequently propagated along the main East Anatolian Fault with an average rupture velocity between 3.0 and 4.0 km/s. In contrast, the M7.5 event demonstrated a bilateral supershear rupture of about 5.0–6.0 km/s over an 80 km length. Despite varying strike and dip angles, the sub-faults involved in the mainshock are nearly optimally oriented relative to the local stress tensor. The second event ruptured a fault misaligned with respect to the regional stress, also hinting at the effect of local stress heterogeneity in addition to a possible free surface effect.

Humanitarian capitalism: The labour regime of aid and the surrogate welfare state in times of global displacement

Recent literature on the geography and political economy of humanitarian migration governance has highlighted the diverse circuits of economic value being forged through ‘refugee crises’ across the world. However, there is a noticeable gap in the examination of what kind of labour relations sustain these new economic circuits. Additionally, there is limited analysis of how humanitarian labour practices intersect with existing geographies of labour precarity in regions where refugee aid operations are conducted. This article aims to address these gaps by exploring the dominant labour relations within the changing landscape of private and public service providers in Greece following the 2015–16 European ‘refugee crisis.’ The article argues that the growth of the refugee aid sector in Greece both capitalised on and exacerbated ongoing processes of labour market deregulation and public sector contraction. The burgeoning aid sector operated as a surrogate welfare state, relying on devalued local labour to address the basic social reproduction needs of global ‘surplus populations’. Extending discussions on the political economy of migration industries beyond profit-making to account for their role in transforming the welfare state and labour relations in spaces of accentuated capitalist crisis, the article demonstrates how the emergency temporalities of aid funding, the rise of public sector managerialism, and employment protection liberalisation impact migrant-facing services, effectively serving as both anti-labour and anti-immigration policy. Furthermore, it illustrates how politically induced migrant ruination is used as a lever to intensify and moralise humanitarian labour in a feedback loop detrimental to both working-class locals and migrants.

Burst pressure prediction of cord-rubber composite structures using global–local nonlinear finite element analysis

This study aims to develop a model to predict the burst pressure of a dry filament wound cord-rubber composite pressure vessel under hydrostatic internal pressurization using a submodelling based global–local FEA model. The model links the global displacements of a rebar-based model to obtain the local deformation state in a single rhomboidal representative volume. Emphasis is placed on capturing the local stress concentrations in the fibers due to the unique filament winding mosaic pattern. Fiber damage is included in the local model using a maximum principle strain criteria. Verification of the created model is done experimentally on industrially manufactured burst-test specimens. Measurements for displacement during the experiments are taken photographically, while the burst pressure is captured using a pressure transducer. The final error between the burst pressure of the samples and the experimental demonstrators is approximately 6.5%, a marked improvement over conventional models with truss and rebar elements as fibers.

System reliability analysis of geogrid reinforced retaining wall using random finite element method

Stabilizing earthwalls is extremely important in geotechnical engineering projects and has become an integral part of transportation infrastructures. Meanwhile, geogrid reinforced retaining walls have been the attention of designers due to their advantages. On the other hand, the soil heterogeneity and the requirement of investigating the internal (geogrid rupture and geogrid pullout) and external (global and lateral displacement) stability modes of these structures have necessitated performing system reliability analysis. In this study, finite element in conjunction with random fields is used to evaluate the reliability of these walls. For this purpose, a finite element program is coded in MATLAB to obtain internal and external safety factors considering staged construction. The deterministic program is extended to a stochastic framework to account for spatial variability of soil parameters in retained backfill, foundation soil, and reinforced fill. In the last part of this study, reliability indices of stability modes are calculated to obtain the series system reliability index, utilizing the Sequential Compounding Method (SCM). The results indicated that the effect of soil heterogeneity is more significant on internal stability modes compared to external stability modes especially geogrid pullout. The results of the system reliability analysis demonstrated more critical conditions thus the reliability index of the system was less than the reliability index of individual components.

Observing and Modeling Short‐Term Changes in Basal Friction During Rain‐Induced Speed‐Ups on an Alpine Glacier

AbstractBasal shear stress on hard‐bedded glaciers results from normal stress against bed roughness, which depends on basal water pressure and cavity size. These quantities are related in a steady state but are expected to behave differently under rapid changes in water input, which may lead to a transient frictional response not captured by existing friction laws. Here, we investigate transient friction using Global Positioning System vertical displacement and horizontal velocity observations, basal water pressure measurements, and cavitation model predictions during rain‐induced speed‐up events at Glacier d'Argentière, French Alps. We observe up to a threefold increase in horizontal surface velocity, spatially migrating at rates consistent with subglacial flow drainage, and associated with surface uplift and increased water pressure. We show that frictional changes are mainly driven by changes in water pressure at nearly constant cavity size. We propose a generalized friction law capable of capturing observations in both the transient and steady‐state regimes.

Self-Reported Physical Activity and Mental Health Among Asylum Seekers in a Refugee Camp.

Global forced displacement has been rising steeply since 2015 as a result of wars and human rights abuses. Forcibly displaced people are often exposed to physical and mental strain, which can cause traumatic experiences and poor mental health. Physical activity has been linked with better mental health, although such evidence is scarce among those populations. The purpose of the study was to examine the relationships of self-reported physical activity and fitness with mental health indices among people residing in a refugee camp in Greece as asylum seekers. Participants were 151 individuals (76 women, 75 men; mean age 28.90y) displaced from their homes for an average of 32.03months. Among them, 67% were from Afghanistan and countries from southwest Asia, and 33% from sub-Saharan African countries. Participants completed self-report measures assessing physical activity, fitness, symptoms of post-traumatic stress disorder, depression, anxiety, and well-being. High prevalence of mental health disorder symptoms and poor well-being were identified, with women and Asians showing poorer mental health. Symptoms of post-traumatic stress disorder, depression, and anxiety were related to perceived fitness, but not to self-reported physical activity. Regression analysis showed that perceived fitness (β: 0.34; 95% CI, 0.43 to 1.52) and low-intensity physical activity (β: 0.24; 95% CI, 0.001 to 0.009) significantly positively predicted well-being, showing small to medium effect. The findings provide useful insights regarding the link between physical activity and well-being; nevertheless, further research examining objectively measured physical activity is warranted to complement these data and further explore the associations between physical activity and mental health.

Uncanny and Displacement: Forcibly Displaced People Living in the State of Uncanny Amid the COVID-19 Pandemic

The COVID-19 pandemic caused a massive humanitarian crisis across the globe. In times of emergency response, such as the pandemic, forcibly displaced people are among the most vulnerable groups who often face socio-economic marginalization, and other forms of intersecting oppression and discrimination, such as xenophobia and racism. In refugee camps, they are more susceptible to contracting the virus because of their poor living conditions in overcrowded camps and/or substandard housing, difficulties in adopting social distancing and self-isolation, and lack of adequate public health services. Using predetermined inclusion criteria for the studies, we searched databases, including JSTOR, Social Work Abstract, Social Sciences Abstract, EBSCOhost, ProQuest, and PsycINFO, to find relevant literature. We employed a theoretical construct of “uncanny,” often used by postcolonial thinkers, to critically analyze the selected studies. We identified four overarching themes: a) crisis within crises amid the pandemic, b) racism and xenophobia amid the pandemic, c) international solidarity and sharing responsibility, and d)neoliberal global regime and displacement. Our paper concludes with policy recommendations and action plans to be implemented by international communities, governments, and civil society targeting forcibly displaced people to mitigate the impacts of COVID-19 and future pandemics.