Global Demographic Changes Research Articles

IMPACT OF CURRENTLY ADOPTED NUTRITIONAL TRENDS ON SUDANESE HEALTH

Food items reflect the culture and tradition of any nation and respond to national and global demographic, social and economic changes. Sudanese as old African nation has rich and distinct nutritional heritage represent the traditional Sudanese diets which able to serve the nutritional requirement of linear growth of body and the brain for centuries. The present century has witnessed unprecedented globalization in term of mobilization of individuals and commodities with dramatic cultural changes. As direct result of such events, as elsewhere, western style of energy dense refined food items replaced the centuries’ long traditional nutrients and fibers dense diets. The aim of this article is to evaluate effects of shifting from traditional diets to the modern adopted food items on Sudanese health, as there are increasing discrepancy of neonatal physical parameters and rising incidence of obesity and non-communicable diseases. The study concluded that increasing urbanization and shifting from the traditional diets has grave consequences on human health in Sudan, with increasing incidence of low birth weight, obesity, diabetes, and hypertension as detail in the main text of this article.

Definitions, diagnostic criteria and terminality assessment of cancer and non-cancer chronic diseases

Global demographic changes have generated new challenges in the health system. Treating increasingly older patients with more complex health problems has significantly raised and exceeded our response capacity, and Peru is not indifferent to this situation. These patients need more and more care, and late-stage chronic diseases require an approach change: from aggressive healing treatments to palliative ones which improve quality of life and are associated with an important social content. Late-stage diseases occur in the final stage of life, where irreversible damage; multiple somatic, psychological and spiritual symptoms; as well as great impact in the patients and their families take place. Late-stage cancer diseases have been studied on a relatively frequent basis; however, non-cancer diseases occur more often and result in better survival rates. This review article aims at gathering the operational definitions of this condition, describing the specific diagnostic criteria of terminality, and summarizing the instruments to identify the need of palliative care and the prognostic scales published in the scientific literature.

Government policy and global fertility change: a reappraisal

ABSTRACT The role of government policy in fertility change has been a central inquiry in understanding global demographic changes in the last half century. We return to this inquiry with longitudinal data for over 150 countries from 1976 to 2013 and use fixed-effects models to address common methodological concerns. Our results reveal that while government anti-natalist policies fail to show clear effects for all countries included, they are associated with significantly lower fertility in Asia and Latin America, two regions that have seen the most rapid fertility decline. For pro-natalist policies, which are becoming more popular in recent years, we detect only short-term positive effects, and effects limited to countries where fertility has not sunk below the ultra-low level of 1.4 children per woman. Combined, these results suggest that government policies are important in global fertility change, though the policy impacts vary by geographic location, timing, and fertility level.

Measuring the impact and benifits of the global demographic changes on the tourism industry “with application on India"

The success of a tourist country would depend heavily on the accurate evaluation of the developments affecting the tourist demand process, among these developments the tourist country must consider, are the continuous demographic changes which are one of the scarcest studies globally and are being dealt with on the current study theoretically and statistically by using the descriptive analytical approach in order to put a clear vision about these significant changes which could be of great importance to the tourist country “INDIA” to make use of its tourist resources and enhance its competitive position in the global tourism market.

Measuring the impact and benefits of the global demographic changes on the tourism industry “With application on India”

Measuring the impact and benefits of the global demographic changes on the tourism industry “With application on India”

Macroeconomic Impacts of Global Demographic Change on Australia

The world will experience dramatic demographic change over this century. This paper examines the impacts of this global demographic change on the Australian economy at both the aggregate and sectoral levels in a global multi-region and multi-sector general equilibrium model. Using a detailed structural model, we simulate demographic shocks of six regions in the world economy as well as Australian own demographic shock to investigate their impacts on Australian macroeconomic conditions, economic structure and trade patterns. The results suggest that demographic change in different regions of the world economy will have different impacts on sectors in Australia depending on trade patterns between Australia and other regions and also between other regions. The energy, mining and durable manufacturing sectors in Australia are the most affected. Demographic change in China, Japan and Korea has significant negative impacts on Australia, but partly offsetting these shocks are positive demographic shocks from emerging Asia. The overall impact of the rest of the world on Australian GDP is quantitatively negligible, but the impacts on the real interest rate and trade balances are significant. Global demographic change increases Australian real interest rates in the next two decades on the assumption that emerging countries can access global capital markets and take advantage of their demographic dividends.

Global Macroeconomic Impacts of Demographic Change

The world has been experiencing dramatic demographic change since the 1950s, with almost all countries facing ageing challenges this coming century. However, the timing and speed of this demographic transition are significantly asymmetric across countries. This paper examines the impacts of global demographic change on macroeconomic conditions, international trade, and capital flows in major economies in a global multi-region and multi-sector general equilibrium model. We separately simulate demographic shocks in six regions of the world economy to understand how each shock individually affects the world economy and then combine these shocks to obtain the consequences of global demographic change. The paper finds that future demographic change will have significant impacts on each region’s GDP, which will change the landscape of the world economy. However, the spillover effects on GDP across countries are relatively small. In young economies such as emerging Asia and Africa, while economic growth will significantly benefit from demographic dividends, demographic change does not improve per capita GDP. In ageing economies such as Japan and Europe, population ageing will decrease the real interest rate. However, this impact will be offset by rising interest rates in young economies. Due to the differential real interest rates, capital will flow from more ageing to less ageing economies. These capital flows can be substantial and beneficial for all economies.

The Future of Work: Challenges for Job Creation Due to Global Demographic Change and Automation

We explore future job creation needs under conditions of demographic, economic, and technological change. First, we estimate the implications for job creation in 2020–2030 of population growth, changes in labor force participation, and the achievement of plausible target unemployment rates, disaggregated by age and gender. Second, we analyze the job creation needs differentiated by country income group. Finally, we examine how accelerated automation could affect job creation needs over the coming decades. Overall, shifting demographics, changing labor force participation rates, reductions in unemployment to the target levels of 8 percent for youth and 4 percent for adults, and automation combine to require the creation of approximately 340 million jobs in 2020–2030.

The global burden of neurological disorders: translating evidence into policy.

Neurological disorders are the leading cause of disability and the second leading cause of death worldwide. In the past 30 years, the absolute numbers of deaths and people with disabilities owing to neurological diseases have risen substantially, particularly in low-income and middle-income countries, and further increases are expected globally as a result of population growth and ageing. This rise in absolute numbers of people affected suggests that advances in prevention and management of major neurological disorders are not sufficiently effective to counter global demographic changes. Urgent measures to reduce this burden are therefore needed. Because resources for health care and research are already overstretched, priorities need to be set to guide policy makers, governments, and funding organisations to develop and implement action plans for prevention, health care, and research to tackle the growing challenge of neurological disorders.

Perioperative Medicine for Older People

Global demographic changes have resulted in an older, frailer surgical population with significant multimorbidity causing higher frequency of adverse postoperative outcomes. The need for restructuring of perioperative care pathways to address this issue has been recognised. Comprehensive geriatric assessment (CGA) and optimisation are emerging as innovative perioperative pathways. This paper describes one centre's approach in applying CGA in the surgical setting and presents the evidence in support of this. Similar models are being established in Singapore in hip fracture, colorectal and vascular populations. The challenges in the widespread adoption of such models of care are similar across settings. The global nature of translation is also discussed in this paper.

Degrees of xerostomia? A Rasch analysis of the Xerostomia Inventory.

The global demographic changes resulting in an ageing population require attention on xerostomia, as its prevalence appears to increase with age. The Xerostomia Inventory (XI) is a 11-item instrument developed to evaluate the symptoms and behavioural components of xerostomia, while a shortened 5-item version named Summated Xerostomia Inventory (SXI) was later proposed. The aim of the present study was to evaluate the construct validity of the XI and whether the SXI can provide a shortened version. Since previous studies focused only on dimensionality and reliability, we employed modern psychometric methodology to investigate properties such as differential item functioning (DIF) and targeting. The XI was applied to 164 middle-aged to older adults who participated in a randomized controlled trial to investigate the effects of alcohol-containing mouth rinse in Singapore. The psychometric properties of the XI were investigated with the Rasch model (Partial Credit Model). Overall model fit was evaluated with a summary chi-square statistic. Item fit was evaluated with the Fit Residual, and values between -2.5 and 2.5 are considered acceptable. DIF by sex was evaluated through a two-way ANOVA of the residuals. After collapsing the categories of "Hardly ever" and "Fairly often", the test of global fit (χ2 (30)=34.32, P=.27) indicated overall fit to the Rasch model. Since Fit Residuals were between -2 and 2, the fit of individual items was also adequate. No DIF was found between men and women, and targeting was adequate (μ=-0.56). The current study expanded the evidence on the XI and SXI validity and provides new implications for practice: a 3-point categorization ("Never," "Occasionally" and "Very often") should be preferred rather than the original 5-point categorization; the XI and SXI scores can be compared between men and women and will reflect true differences in xerostomia rather than measurement bias.

Cuba, the centrally planned cigar, and its rivals

AbstractCuba has a long‐standing reputation for producing premium cigars. Despite the inefficiencies of central planning, Cuba continues to command a dominant global market share in this product outside the United States, whose trade embargo forbids Cuban imports. Cuba's main rivals in premium cigars include the Dominican Republic, Nicaragua and Honduras, which dominate the US market but have a smaller presence elsewhere. All premium cigar exporters face important global demographic and policy changes that will alter the competitive landscape. Public anti‐smoking measures have diminished cigar demand in Europe and other industrialised areas, reinforcing a market growth shift towards emerging markets, especially China. Cuba's strengths in branding, reputation and third‐world ties give it an advantage in developing the high end of these new markets. However, the rigidities of Cuba's economic system make it difficult to increase or adjust premium cigar output and exports in response to new market opportunities. Cost‐efficient competition from its Caribbean rivals allows them to respond to consumer preferences for new cigar blends and lower‐priced brands. The paper concludes by assessing the need for economic reforms and foreign investment in Cuban cigar production that will be necessary for it to maintain or improve its export performance.

Education rather than age structure brings demographic dividend

The relationship between population changes and economic growth has been debated since Malthus. Initially focusing on population growth, the notion of demographic dividend has shifted the attention to changes in age structures with an assumed window of opportunity that opens when falling birth rates lead to a relatively higher proportion of the working-age population. This has become the dominant paradigm in the field of population and development, and an advocacy tool for highlighting the benefits of family planning and fertility decline. While this view acknowledges that the dividend can only be realized if associated with investments in human capital, its causal trigger is still seen in exogenous fertility decline. In contrast, unified growth theory has established human capital as a trigger of both demographic transition and economic growth. We assess the relative importance of changing age structure and increasing human capital for economic growth for a panel of 165 countries during the time period of 1980-2015. The results show a clear dominance of improving education over age structure and give evidence that the demographic dividend is driven by human capital. Declining youth dependency ratios even show negative impacts on income growth when combined with low education. Based on a multidimensional understanding of demography that considers education in addition to age, and with a view to the additional effects of education on health and general resilience, we conclude that the true demographic dividend is a human capital dividend. Global population policies should thus focus on strengthening the human resource base for sustainable development.

Senior Foodies:A developing niche market in gastronomic tourism

The world's population is ageing. Because of these global demographic changes it has resulted in the increased participation of older (or senior) adults in tourism and leisure activities and has prompted governments and tourism providers in many developed regions of the world to identify senior travellers as a priority market. An increasingly healthy senior market segment now has the time and purchasing power to travel more frequently, because many want to seek out and experience new and often exotic destinations in their desire to enjoy a healthy and active lifestyle. This has helped to create an emerging special interest or niche market that has been termed culinary or gastronomic tourism. The relationship between food and tourism has always been an increasingly important segment in the real worlds of hospitality, destination marketing, and tourism development. However, only recently we have seen the acceptance of the growth in interest in gastronomic tourism as an academic field of study. However at the same time, there has been little research that has been carried out on the socio-demographics of this niche market, and in particular, older gastronomic tourists. In other words, researchers have previously assumed that they all tourists experience gastronomic tourism in similar ways. As a result, little research has been found in the tourism literature, however there is some evidence to suggest that older gastronomic tourists are often very experienced travellers who have the time and money to seek out and experience foreign cultures through local food consumption that display different food preferences. On the other hand, other studies have noted diminished taste and olfactory sensitivity of older tourists, and a preference for familiar foods rather than trying out local cuisine so as to avoid any negative effects from change in diet or to control existing health problems. More research needs to be conducted to assist tourism providers and marketeers to better understand and promote the importance of the gastronomic consumption needs and expectations of the older market segment.

Analyzing population ageing and intergenerational redistribution: NTA and AGENTA

This special issue of the Vienna Yearbook contains chapters derived from the EUfunded AGENTA project, which uses and extends the methods of the National Transfer Accounts (NTA) project to shed light on the ways in which the families and governments of Europe draw on the earnings of the working-age population to support both children and the elderly. Before turning to the fascinating studies included in this Yearbook, we will provide some context regarding support systems, global demographic change, NTA, and AGENTA.

МОДИФИКАЦИЯ IS-LM-BPМОДЕЛИ В РАМКАХ КОНЦЕПЦИИ НЕОКЛАССИЧЕСКОГО СИНТЕЗА

With the intensification of processes caused by globalization, the relevance of the studies about the impact of exogenous shocks in the global markets for wealth and money on the macroeconomic parameters of a small open economy is growing. Moreover, the basis of modern economic relations within the global economy is not only the global trade in goods and services, but the international movement of production factors. Migration of labor resources starts playing an increasingly important role in the sphere of the international movement of production factors. The study of these processes and their further analysis is possible within the framework of the IS-LM-BP model supplemented by the labor market data. The IS-LM-BP model is still a significant theoretical and methodological development, which allows us to analyze the impact of exogenous shocks on the global and domestic markets of goods and money markets on a small open economy, as well as evaluate the effectiveness of state regulation. The opportunity to assess the impact of the exchange rate regime and the mobility of international capital on the effectiveness of state regulation in a small open economy, as well as on the mechanism for adjusting disturbed double equilibrium under the influence of exogenous shocks is considered to be the most interesting. However, the most important macroeconomic market – the labor market – remains outside the framework of this model. The purpose of the study is to modify the IS-LM-BP model developed in the framework of the concept of J.M. Keynes including a new curve – the full-employment curve in the model. The derivation of the curve is based on the theoretical premises of the neoclassical concept: full employment directly depends on the real interest rate in this model acts as an endogenous parameter. This study is based on Keynesian principles of double equilibrium in a small open economy supplemented by neoclassical ideas about full employment as an endogenous parameter. The modification of the IS-LM-BP model based on the principles of neoclassical synthesis means the development of a full-employment curve and including it in the case study model based on the basic principles of the theoretical justification of this macroeconomic model. The full-employment curve identifies the equilibrium curve in the neoclassical labor market. The reason for its inclusion in the IS-LM-BP model is the existing theoretically substantiated relationship between the real interest rate and the supply on the labor market as part of the concept of a new classical school. The dependence is based on the inter-temporal price of labor, which, in turn, is directly dependent on the real interest rate. Since the derivation of the full-employment curve is based on the neoclassical postulates of the functioning of the labor market, the suggested modification of the IS-LM-BP model can be considered as an example of neoclassical synthesis. The IS-LM-BP model modified by the author is proposed as a methodological base for the study of such theoretical and practical aspects of the functioning of open business systems as: 1) the analysis of the adjustment mechanism in the process of restoring disequilibrium in the labor market, goods, money and foreign exchange as a result of exposure to exogenous shocks; 2) the analysis of the effectiveness of state regulation in the functioning of the labor market, goods, money and foreign currency; 3) the comparison of the desired theoretical model with the real processes inherent in small open economies. Keywords IS-LM model, Mandell-Fleming model, IS-LM-BP model, real business cycle model, full-time curve, Keynesian concept, neoclassical synthesis, IS-LM-BP-NF model, exchange rate regime, capital mobility, small open economy.

A nursing shortage - a prospect of global and local policies.

The article addresses selected determinants of the nursing shortage in Poland and other countries in the face of employee ageing. Global demographic changes have led to a systematic increase in the elderly population and a decreasing number of births, which have impacted health policy and healthcare systems in various countries. Both processes necessitate transitions in global health care. Nursing care, which has faced a human resources crisis, is a strategic area within this context. This study is based on national listings and strategic documents for nursing policy in Poland, including Increasing average age of nurses and midwives prepared by the Polish Main Council of Nurses and Midwives, the incorporation of big data, international reports and a literature review on nursing and healthcare challenges. This paper argues that the causes of the nursing shortage are multifaceted with no single global or local measure of its nature. An overview of the problem indicates ineffective planning and use of available nursing resources, poor recruitment or an undersupply of a new staff, and global demographic conditions. The overview highlights the fact that nursing shortages have reached a critical point for healthcare services on both the local and global levels. The general recommendations for nursing policy include the need to prepare and implement national social security agendas into services provided by nurses. Such a programme would include general issues: improving working and employment conditions, implementing mechanisms regulating salary and providing the possibility of lifelong learning with the incorporation of mobile and technological innovations as a sustainable solution.

Global Demographic Change and the Case of Low Fertility

Global Demographic Change and the Case of Low Fertility

Demographic Trends and the Real Interest Rate

We quantify the impact of past and future global demographic change on real interest rates, house prices and household debt in an overlapping generations model. Falling birth and death rates can explain a large part of the fall in world real interest rates and the rise in house prices and household debt since the 1980s. These trends will persist as the share of the population in the high-wealth 50 age bracket continues to rise. As the United States ages relatively slowly, its net foreign liability position will grow. The availability of housing and debt as alternative stores of value attenuates these trends. The increasing monopolisation of the economy has ambiguous effects.

Global demographic change and grandparenthood

ABSTRACTLife expectancies at birth have increased at the global level from 47 years in the mid-twentieth century to around 71 years today, and are expected to rise to 78 years by the mid-twenty-first century and to 83 years by the end of the century. The proportion of the world’s population aged 65 years and over has increased from 5% in the mid-twentieth century to just over 8% in 2015, and by 2050, it is expected to reach almost 16%, equating to more than 1.5 billion people. The end of the century will see 23% and 2.5 billion of the world’s population aged 65 years and over. In newly ageing populations, fertility has often declined dramatically. This presents challenges to individuals, families and societies, not least because many of these societies rely on family-based support. The traditional family is shrinking and its role is changing. As we live longer, we are grandparents for longer and grandparenthood in the modern family is changing. This paper considers global demographic change and grandparenthood, and utilises data from Oxford’s Global Ageing Survey to understand changing family roles and attitudes to family, which impact on grandparenthood.