Global Coal Market Research Articles

An Economic Analysis of Coal Pricing in Mongolia

Coal is a critical export for Mongolia, playing a significant role in the nation’s economy by contributing to GDP and export revenues. This paper provides an economic analysis of coal pricing in Mongolia, examining the primary factors that drive price fluctuations in both domestic and international markets. Key areas of focus include global demand, particularly from neighboring China, transportation costs, government policies, currency exchange rates, and environmental regulations. The paper employs a mixed-method approach, analyzing historical price data alongside policy reviews to identify the challenges and opportunities Mongolia faces in stabilizing coal prices. Global coal demand, especially from China, has a profound effect on Mongolian coal prices, while infrastructure limitations and transportation costs further exacerbate price volatility. Additionally, Mongolia’s coal sector is influenced by international competition, particularly from established exporters like Australia and Indonesia, which benefit from more developed supply chains. This research aims to provide valuable insights for policymakers and stakeholders by offering recommendations on how Mongolia can enhance price stability and strengthen its position in the global coal market. By analyzing the economic forces shaping Mongolian coal prices, the study contributes to broader discussions on resource management and economic sustainability in coal-dependent economies. The findings will aid policymakers in developing strategies that address Mongolia's infrastructure challenges and ensure the long-term viability of its coal industry in the face of evolving global energy dynamics.

Глобальный рынок угля в новых геополитических реалиях

Currently, the global coal market is influenced by several conflicting factors, which contribute to the fact that coal energy will retain a significant role in the world economy in future. In particular, the negative impact on the environment can be significantly reduced with new technological solutions (CCUS, HELE). An important role in the global coal market is played by the Russian coal industry, which, despite West-ern sanctions, is developing dynamically, including due to the redirection of export flows to the east. To consol-idate Russia's leading position in the global market, in our opinion, it is necessary to implement the idea of unit-ing coal-producing countries by forming the Alliance of Coal Exporters (ACE). The creation of the Alliance of Coal Exporters will help to increase the degree of controllability of the global coal market as a whole and the predictability of world coal prices, which will meet the interests of both suppliers and consumers of coal. The Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO), which unites a number of leading suppliers and con-sumers of this type of fuel, could become the institutional basis for the creation of the Alliance of Coal Export-ers. The exporters remaining outside the organization will not be able to challenge the energy component of the SCO, with its growing geopolitical and military-political potential and mutual coordination of the Eurasian countries – coal producers.

Directions for Sustainable Development of China’s Coal Industry in the Post-Epidemic Era

China’s energy structure is dominated by fossil fuels, especially coal consumption, which accounts for a relatively high share. In January 2020, the COVID-19 outbreak affected the global coal market, and many countries experienced negative economic growth. Economic development requires energy consumption. In 2021, China set a target of peaking carbon emissions by 2030 in order to phase out the dependence of carbon emissions on economic development. Therefore, the aim of this article is to develop directions for the sustainable development of China’s coal industry. Based on the macroenvironment and situation analysis, the article concludes that, under the influence of geopolitics, China’s shortage of imported coal resources and China’s continuous rise in coal demand, the share of coal in China’s energy structure will not decrease significantly in the long-term. The main directions for the sustainable development of China’s coal industry are to ensure the safety of coal energy storage and improve the level of safety supervision; coordinate the development of regional energy; increase the clean, efficient, and low-carbon utilization of coal; and strengthen international coal strategic cooperation.

Кузбасс: внешние и внутренние вызовы как импульс трансформации социально-экономической системы региона

The global energy transition, the defining factor for which is the decarbonization and the transition to a low-carbon economy, radically influenced the position of coal in the global fuel and energy supply-demand balance. Coal has long remained one of its basic elements, providing energy security for a significant number of countries. The prospect of abandoning coal as a source of energy has become a serious political and economic challenge for many states, including Russia. The risk exists not only for the owners of the coal business, but also for the regions where the coal industry is a systemic one. In Russia, first of all, it is Kemerovo oblast – Kuzbass, where budget planning depends on world coal prices, and the development strategies of the last twenty years were based on coal production growth. The article attempts to analyze the main challenges caused by the global climate agenda and the energy transition: Kuzbass may face them in the next three or four years, and in the more distant future they will only intensify. The authors identified three such challenges: environmental problems appeared in the region as a result of the activity of enterprises of coal and other industries; reduction of the capacity of the global coal market as a first step towards decarbonizatoin; development of new large coal mining centers in the eastern regions of the Russian Federation. These challenges can provoke numerous risks for sustainable development of Kuzbass. They will have the greatest impact in the 2030s – 2040s. It is when the main world economies plan to stop the growth of CO2 emissions and begin to reduce it in order to achieve carbon neutrality by 2050–2060. Kemerovo region, which is currently experiencing an increase in coal production, should prepare for a deep transformation of its social and economic system in order to be able to maintain its stability in 2030–2040. Within the framework of this article, the authors do not set the goal of a deep analysis of all risks, the results of studying these problems will be presented in the following scientific papers.

НОВЫЕ ПОДХОДЫ К ФОРМИРОВАНИЮ РЫНКОВ СБЫТА РОССИЙСКОГО УГЛЯ В УСЛОВИЯХ САНКЦИОННОЙ ПОЛИТИКИ ЗАПАДА

This scientific work examines new approaches to the formation of Russian coal sales markets in the context of the sanctions policy of the West, reflects the role and place of Russia in the global coal market before the imposition of sanctions. The author identifies the main potential consumers, reveals the main problems faced by coal companies in the conditions of reorientation of raw material exports to eastern markets. In conclusion, the author identifies possible ways to solve the main problems of the Russian coal industry in the context of the sanctions policy of the West.

Situation on the Global Coal Market during the Recovery of the World Economy after the COVID-19 Crisis

The global economic recovery in 2021 will lead to a recovery in coal demand after a significant drop in 2020 caused by the Covid-19 crisis. There is no indication that the global coal consumption will decline significantly in the coming years, as increased demand in some Asian countries will offset declines in others. Based on the assumption of a global economic recovery, experts forecast a 2.6% growth in the global coal demand in 2021, driven by an increased demand for electricity and industrial production. The economies of China, India and Southeast Asia account for most of the growth. The future of coal will largely be decided in Asia. Today, China and India account for 65% of the world's coal demand. Taking into account Japan, Korea, Taiwan and Southeast Asia, this share rises to 75%. China will be particularly influential, as it currently accounts for half of the world's coal consumption. By 2025, the European Union and the United States will account for less than 10% of global coal demand, down from 37% in 2000.

System dynamics approach in determining coal utilization scenario in Indonesia

Indonesia plays an important role in the global coal market. In 2018, Indonesia ranked as the 5th largest coal producer and the 2nd largest coal exporter in the world. However, only 21% of the production volume is utilized in the domestic market. In the future, Indonesia's coal production is expected to continue to increase due to the growth in coal demand for electricity generation. This research aims to predict the future of coal production in Indonesia to support economic growth with less damage to the environment and examine its contribution to the national primary energy mix as a part of national energy policy. System dynamics model is utilized, which simulates the future of coal supply and demand in relation to the availability of coal reserves, the interaction between coal and its substitutes, economic growth, and the price of commodities. Four scenarios are introduced to analyze the impact of coal utilization to the economy and environment, which are Business as Usual (BaU), Economic Growth Priority (EGP), Policy Regulation (PR), and Environmentally Oriented (EO) scenario. The results show that coal production in Indonesia will continue to increase in the future. The EO scenario will be the best alternative for future energy policy in Indonesia because of its ability to fulfill both economic growth and low carbon intensity target. Furthermore, the EO scenario also able to achieve the government target in primary energy mix in 2030 with 33.5% of coal, 19.4% of oil, 7.8% of gas, and 39.3% of renewable energy.

Факторная модель производительности труда в угольной промышленности

The article introduces the problem of increasing the labor efficiency at Russian coal enterprises. Using the case of Kuzbass, the authors examined factors that affect labor efficiency in coal industry, e.g. new equipment and mining technologies, qualified personnel, robotics, new quality management and information technologies, etc. They used a multiplicative model to estimate the key factors and made forecast of its dynamics up to 2035 for open and underground mining. The authors believe that effective models of mining enterprise management are impossible without a radical increase in labor efficiency, since it indicates labor costs in the production of the final product per unit of time. Labor efficiency in the open-pit mining is higher, as it has lower labor costs and offers a simple and safe way of organizing labor processes. However, new equipment can increase the efficiency of underground mining. Underground mines also demonstrate a faster growth of labor efficiency than open pits. The authors justified the need to assess labor efficiency using a system analysis and a multiplicative model. As global coal market continues to deteriorate, mining labor efficiency can still maintain positive long-term rates of growth if it manages to optimize deliveries and increase the labor efficiency at the federal level. The research possesses considerable theoretical and practical significance as it offers a solution for of the most relevant challenges.

ПЕРСПЕКТИВИ СВІТОВОГО РИНКУ МЕТАЛУРГІЙНОГО КАМ'ЯНОВУГІЛЬНОГО КОКСУ (за матеріалами міжнародної конференції «EuroCoke Summit», Амстердам, 2021 р.)

The article is devoted to the review of the main materials of the international conference Eurocoke-2021, which took place on October 5-6 in Amsterdam, the Netherlands. Despite the fact that the conference is named as European, the representatives of the world's leading firms and research centers from the EU, England, Australia, India, USA, China, Ukraine and other countries took part in its work. The article summarizes the main results and conclusions of the reports and discussions. As the most of speakers noted, that despite the impact of the global recession and the logistical difficulties caused by the COVID-19 pandemic, as well as the China's ban to use Australian coal, a significant change in the global coal market is not expected in the near future. China's trade policy has led mainly to a redistribution of markets for Australian, American, Canadian and Russian coal. Technologies and researches to replace some of the components of the coking coal charge with a cheaper coal grades or carbonaceous materials of plant origin in order to reduce the cost of coke and steel are still relevant. The strict requirements for limiting greenhouse gas emissions are forcing coke and steel producers to modernize the existing traditional production facilities (including using integrated technologies) to reduce emissions and improve the efficiency of the CO2 capturing and utilization. In the world steel production in the next decade, a significant increase in the share of technologies focused on abandoning coke and blast furnace production is hardly possible due to the high cost and duration of the corresponding projects. Keywords: coke production, steel industry, world coking coal market, steel market, trends, recession, logistics, COVID-19, greenhouse gas emissions, decarbonization, direct iron reduction, integrated technologies, stamped charge coking, biomass, catalysis. Corresponding author E.T. Kovalev, e-mail: post@ukhin.org.ua

Problems and development trends of coal transportation infrastructure in Russia

Analysis of the trends in the coal industry in Russia showed that, despite the stable demand in the global coal market, the growth rate of coal exports is slowing down. The main reason is the shortcomings of the transport and logistics infrastructure for the coal haulage. At the same time, the countries of the Asia-Pacific region are a promising export destination, and it is the Eastern operating domain of the Russian railway network that is most loaded and has insufficient throughput capacity. The study of the elements of the transport and logistics infrastructure revealed key problems, namely the underdevelopment of the railway infrastructure, the inconsistency of development programs for coal mining regions, port facilities and railway infrastructure, and the inconsistency of the operation of ports and the railway. Due to the fact that the development of the railway network in the eastern direction is a long-term project, and the coal haulage values will not be increased in the near future, an assessment is made of the possibility and economic efficiency of reorienting freight traffic in other directions.

Extraction and development: fossil fuel production narratives and counternarratives in Colombia

ABSTRACT Colombia, a country that is very vulnerable to climate change, has played a positive role in international climate negotiations. Paradoxically, Colombia is also the sixth largest coal exporter globally, and its government has adopted policies to further increase the country’s production of coal and other fossil fuels. This article explores to what extent the national government reproduces a powerful paradigm – namely, that fossil fuel extraction is necessary for development – and how this resonates at the sub-national level. We find that the government’s narrative has evolved to accommodate Colombia’s changing national circumstances and public criticism. Though counternarratives exist, they have struggled to propose credible nationwide alternatives to extractive-based development, thus reinforcing the belief that extraction-based development is unavoidable. We describe how government narratives constitute an obstacle to both supply-side policies to restrict fossil fuel development and to transitional assistance policies to adjust to shifts in the global coal market. Key policy insights The view that fossil fuel extraction is necessary for development is a powerful barrier to supply – side climate policy. This view also hinders the formulation of transitional assistance policy. Empirical evidence that fossil fuel extraction seldom leads to equitable development is not enough to overcome this view. Narratives on fossil fuel-based development continuously adjust to prevailing economic development paradigms and contemporary development challenges.

ВЛИЯНИЕ ПАНДЕМИИ COVID-19 НА МИРОВОЙ РЫНОК ЭНЕРГЕТИЧЕСКОГО УГЛЯ

The article highlights the changes in the global thermal coal market associated with the consequences of the COVID-19 pandemic, examines the dynamics of import volumes by key countries - consumers of thermal coal and export volumes by major exporting countries, as well as price changes in the main international markets. Analysis of changes in the global steam coal market caused by the consequences of the COVID-19 pandemic and a number of other objective factors demonstrates a change in the competitive positions of the largest exporting countries, which may have long-term consequences. In addition, the article examines the continuing trend of dividing the thermal coal market into the high-calorie and low-calorie thermal coal markets, which have multidirectional development prospects.

Black Jack

Russia is playing an increasingly important role on the global coal market. The large mining corporations in the country have expanded their coal extraction, and ever larger quantities of coal are being exported. The coal sector simply ignores the existence of climate change - as does the state, which assists the entirely privately-owned companies in the coal sector with huge, covert subsidies. In particular, the government is providing funds for the expansion of the railway routes from the main extraction region in the Kuzbass to the Pacific ports more than 5,000 kilometres away. These measures are based on the assumption that international climate policy will fail, since if it does succeed, enormous investments will be lost. However, it is the people living in Russia who are paying the price for this huge gamble, particularly in the Kuzbass. They are the ones who are suffering from the devastating air pollution, noise and appropriation of land that are the direct result of the extraction and transportation of coal.

Characterization of rare earth elements by XRT sorting products of a South African coal seam

ABSTRACT South Africa is an important participant in the global coal market. The four Upper coal seam situated in Springs-Witbank Coalfield was subjected to XRT sorting and subsequent mineralogical studies to characterize REE content. The average total REE content (LREE and HREE) of the coal were 280 ppm on ash basis. The surrounding elemental composition besides carbon primarily consisted of O, Si, S and Fe with minor quantities of Al, P and Ti. Major minerals, such as quartz, dolomite, illite, gypsum, siderite, pyrite correlated positively with ash content (r > 0.9) except kaolinite, and microcline, indicating incongruent source and formation mechanisms. Additionally, the HREEs Lu, Tm, Dy, Ho, Gd and Tb displayed strong correlations (r > 0.95) with ash content but were negatively associated with fixed carbon. Sc is negatively associated with coal ash. Fixed carbon is weakly associated with La but negatively associated with HREEs. La showed a weak association with Ce. Y is strongly correlated with HREE elements especially with Dy, Tm, Lu and Ho while at the same time LREE are strongly associated with Ce, Pr, Nd, La, Eu but negatively with Sc and fixed carbon levels.

Глобальный рынок угля: состояние и перспективы

Глобальный рынок угля: состояние и перспективы

Прогнозування рівнів розвитку вугільної галузі із врахуванням ризиків та критичних явищ у структурі її виробничого потенціалу в умовах світового ринку вугілля

Прогнозування рівнів розвитку вугільної галузі із врахуванням ризиків та критичних явищ у структурі її виробничого потенціалу в умовах світового ринку вугілля

Regional employment and economic growth effects of South Africa’s transition to low-carbon energy supply mix

This paper examines the long-run regional economic effects within South Africa of changing the electricity-generation mix towards less coal. To do so, a regional Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model of South Africa is employed for the analysis. The overall result stemmed from all scenarios suggest that the effect of a transition to an energy supply mix with smaller share of coal generation is sensitive to other economic and policy conditions, in particular the reaction of the global coal market and hence, South Africa’s coal exports. Under conditions in which surplus coal resulting from lower domestic demand cannot be readily exported, the economies of coal-producing regions in South Africa such as the Mpumalanga province are the most severely affected. The subsequent migration of semi-skilled labour from that province to others within the country require appropriate and timeous planning by energy policymakers and urban planners.

The globalization of the world coal market – contradictions and trends

The article describes the global coal market as the ratio of demand and supply depending on the development of energy technologies in the historical section. The continental specificity of coal mining is given. The basic world exporters and importers of coal and their role in the sale of energy fuels are analyzed. The key coal producing countries are China, India, the USA, and Australia. The largest consumers of coal products are China, India, Japan and Korea. There are unconditional leaders in the export coal market: Indonesia and Australia. In addition, a comparison of large coal companies and their share in the world market is presented. The features of coal supplies are analyzed in accordance with international rules (Incoterms), which regulate the rights and obligations of the buyer when conducting international trade, as well as determine the moment of transfer of risks from the seller to the buyer. The following supply bases were characterized: FOB (Free On Board), FAS (Free Alongside Ship), CIF (Cost Insurance and Freight), DAP (Delivered At Place), FCA (Free Carrier) etc. Trends in the logistics component of the global coal industry are revealed. Logistic of coal supply chains in comparison with other energy fuels and their features are disclosed. The problem of profitability of mines and their effectiveness is presented. Assessment of the environmental components of coal use in industry and energy is analyzed. It was noted that on the background of the trend to protect the environment and promote renewable energy, coal is becoming less popular in developed countries. This trend is further exacerbated by state subsidies for green energy.

Price and volatility spillovers across the international steam coal market

We examine the degree of integration of the global steam coal market. Using a variety of measures, we show that the Australian market remains the dominant force in setting world coal prices, followed by Mozambique and South Africa. We find little evidence of asymmetric price and volatility transmission. In fact, most markets react to both positive and negative shocks in a symmetric manner. The coal market displays a significant degree of integration, although this effect varies over time. While China provides a major source of volatility to the global coal market, it is relatively insignificant in terms of price transmission.

МЕСТО РОССИИ НА МИРОВОМ РЫНКЕ УГЛЯ

The current situation in the global coal market, based on data for the last few years and the place of Russia in this market is described. The main provisions of the state policy of the Russian Federation, the volume and direction of foreign trade in coal, the prospects and forecasts of the world coal market are considered. The relevance of the topic is determined by the severity of the problems of world energy supply and changes in the position of the Russian Federation in international coal trade as a result of the active formation of new world coal centers.