Кузбасс: внешние и внутренние вызовы как импульс трансформации социально-экономической системы региона

Abstract

The global energy transition, the defining factor for which is the decarbonization and the transition to a low-carbon economy, radically influenced the position of coal in the global fuel and energy supply-demand balance. Coal has long remained one of its basic elements, providing energy security for a significant number of countries. The prospect of abandoning coal as a source of energy has become a serious political and economic challenge for many states, including Russia. The risk exists not only for the owners of the coal business, but also for the regions where the coal industry is a systemic one. In Russia, first of all, it is Kemerovo oblast – Kuzbass, where budget planning depends on world coal prices, and the development strategies of the last twenty years were based on coal production growth. The article attempts to analyze the main challenges caused by the global climate agenda and the energy transition: Kuzbass may face them in the next three or four years, and in the more distant future they will only intensify. The authors identified three such challenges: environmental problems appeared in the region as a result of the activity of enterprises of coal and other industries; reduction of the capacity of the global coal market as a first step towards decarbonizatoin; development of new large coal mining centers in the eastern regions of the Russian Federation. These challenges can provoke numerous risks for sustainable development of Kuzbass. They will have the greatest impact in the 2030s – 2040s. It is when the main world economies plan to stop the growth of CO2 emissions and begin to reduce it in order to achieve carbon neutrality by 2050–2060. Kemerovo region, which is currently experiencing an increase in coal production, should prepare for a deep transformation of its social and economic system in order to be able to maintain its stability in 2030–2040. Within the framework of this article, the authors do not set the goal of a deep analysis of all risks, the results of studying these problems will be presented in the following scientific papers.