Global Coal Consumption Research Articles

The 1000 GtC coal question: Are cases of vastly expanded future coal combustion still plausible?

Decades ago, prospects seemed strong for significantly expanded global coal consumption. Studies of energy futures depicted the full geologic extent of coal as a virtually unlimited backstop energy supply, drawing justification from legacy ratios of reserves-to-production (R-P) on the order of several centuries. Annual consumption and market prices for hard coal have doubled since 1990, providing an opportunity to recalibrate the next century's reference case with an empirically constrained outlook for this important industrial fuel source.Over the last two decades, improving knowledge of world coal deposits refined estimates of their recoverable portion, reducing assessed reserves by two-thirds. Coal supply costs during this period increased much faster than anticipated by models which mapped total geologic occurrences with long and flat supply curves. Consequently, underlying assumptions no longer hold for many multi-decade global energy reference cases depicting a rapid expansion of coal production – the conceptual framework for these scenarios needs revision. Energy system outlooks underlying pathways of future greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions provide a case study, since the climate change research community commonly uses business-as-usual scenarios with a strong carbon signal from coal combustion many times higher than current reserve estimates.In this paper, we explain why vast expansion in 21st-century coal consumption should not be used to describe any plausible reference case of the global energy future. Illustrating coal as a practically unlimited backstop supply is inconsistent with the current state of coal markets, technology, and reserve estimates. Future coal production faces many uncertainties, but the key uncertainty for long-term scenarios is the recoverable portion of reserves, not how many total geologic resources will eventually become reserves.

Impact of the China–Australia FTA on global coal production and trade

Using a computable partial equilibrium model, this study provides a comprehensive and prospective empirical analysis of the economic impacts of the China–Australian Free Trade Agreement (ChAFTA) on global coal output, trade, consumption and welfare. Based on data from 2014, the simulated results indicate that ChAFTA has a significant trade creation effect. ChAFTA will increase Australia’s coal exports to China by 35.7% and China’s exports to Australia by 19.9%. However, the impacts of ChAFTA on global coal production and price are relatively limited. Results also demonstrate that ChAFTA will cause an annual net welfare loss of US$ 200 million for China and a net welfare gain of US$ 569.3 million for Australia. Moreover, Chinese consumers and Australian coal producers are the biggest beneficiaries of ChAFTA. Based on the research conclusions, we put forward some policy recommendations.

Testing Supply-Side Climate Policies for the Global Steam Coal Market - Can They Curb Coal Consumption?

The achieved international consensus on the 1.5‐2°C target entails that most of current fossil fuel reserves must remain unburned. Currently, a majority of climate policies aiming at this goal are directed towards the demand side. In the absence of a global carbon regime these polices are prone to carbon leakage and other adverse effects. Supply‐side climate policies present an alternative and more direct approach to reduce the consumption of fossil fuels by addressing their production. Here, coal as both, the most abundant and the most emission-intensive fuel, plays a pivotal role. In this paper, I employ a numerical model of the international steam coal market (COALMOD‐World) to examine two alternative supply‐side policies: 1) a production subsidy reform introduced in major coal producing countries, in line with the G20 initiative to reduce global fossil fuel subsidies; 2) a globally implemented moratorium on new coal mines. The model is designed to replicate global patterns of coal supply, demand and international trade. It features endogenous investments in production and transportation capacities in a multi‐period framework and allows for substitution between imports and domestic production of steam coal. Hence, short‐run adjustments (e.g. import substitution effects) and long‐run reactions (e.g. capacity expansions) of exporting and importing countries are endogenously determined. Results show that a subsidy removal, while associated with a small positive total welfare effect, only leads to an insignificant reduction of global emissions. By contrast, a mine moratorium induces a much more pronounced reduction in global coal consumption by effectively limiting coal availability and strongly increasing prices. Depending on the specification of reserves, the moratorium can achieve a coal consumption path consistent with the 1.5‐2°C target.

Dynamic Game Analysis of Coal Electricity Market Involving Multi-Interests

The coal consumption of China reached 2.75 billion tons of standard coal in 2013, which accounted for 67.5% of total energy consumption and more than 50% of global coal consumption. Therefore, the impact of coal price is huge on coal market and even energy market in China. As a large consumer of coal, thermal power enterprise has a strong sensitivity to coal price. In order to balance the rising cost of enterprises due to coal price, we need to analyze the interests of multiple stakeholders. Firstly, this paper combined the Nash equilibrium and cobweb model and proposed the characteristics in different cobweb model. Then, for coal, power, and energy companies, the dynamic game analysis model is constructed. This model gives a game analysis in four scenarios and quantifies the decision of each stakeholder in different coal prices. Finally, the impact figure of different coal prices on each stakeholder has been drawn. The impacts of different coal or thermal power prices on different markets have been put forward, so relevant policy recommendations have been proposed combined with the cobweb model.

Romney, Obama surrogates spell out candidates’ energy policies

Presidential candidates differ sharply on government involvement in energy R&D and climate change. But both favor more nuclear power and fracking.

International coal trade and restrictions on coal consumption

Coal consumption is a major source of CO2 emissions and other air pollutants and is therefore a focus of environmental policy. However, countries that restrict their coal consumption will likely expand their coal exports to foreign markets with fewer restrictions on consumption. The adjustment in international trade will mitigate the impact on coal industry employment but will also reverse some of the reduction in global emissions. This paper quantifies the impact of restrictions on coal consumption in the United States and several other large countries on global coal consumption, trade, and industry employment. The impact calculations are based on an econometric model of the international coal market. The parameters of the model are fitted to panel data on coal consumption and production in 53 countries.

Global Energy Security: The Case for a Multifaceted Solution Strategy

Energy is a fundamental engine that drives the global economy. The world will continue to face acute energy challenges, whose solutions require the engagement of a multifaceted solution strategy. This solution strategy must harness the potential capacities of conventional energy and the promise of emerging alternative energy sources. The Energy Information Administration EIA 2008 projects 50% growth in global energy consumption, from 462 quadrillion Btu in 2005 to 695 quadrillion Btu in 2030 . The most rapid growth is projected for countries that are not in the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development OECD at 85% versus 19% in OECD countries EIA 2008 . Fossil fuels—liquids and other petroleum-based fuels including fuels from petroleum, ethanol, biodiesel, coal-to-liquids, gas-topetroleum coke, natural gas liquids, and liquid hydrogen , natural gas and coal—are expected to provide much of the world’s energy requirements. Liquids are expected to be the dominant global energy source, growing from 83.6 million barrels of oil in 2005 to 112.5 million barrels of oil equivalent per day in 2030 . The transportation and industrial sectors are expected to consume 74% and 26%, respectively, of the projected increase in this period. Unconventional resources—such as oil sands, extra-heavy oil, biofuels, coal-to-liquids, and gas-to-liquids—are expected to increase from 2.5 million barrels per day in 2005 to 9.7 million barrels per day in 2030 , equivalent to 9% of the total global liquids supply in 2030 on an oil-equivalent basis. Global natural gas consumption is also expected to increase from 104 trillion cubic feet in 2005 to 158 trillion cubic feet in 2030. Global coal consumption is expected to increase from 123 quadrillion Btu in 2005 to 202 quadrillion Btu in 2030 , in the absence of drastic national and international limiting policies and agreements. China alone will account for 71% of global coal consumption, with the United States and India accounting for a total of only 18%. Electricity generation from nuclear power will also increase— from 2.6 trillion KWh in 2005 to 3.8 trillion KWh in 2030 . The EIA 2008 forecasts that the installed global nuclear capacity will grow from 374 GW in 2005 to 498 GW in 2030 . The OECD countries will account for a 56 GW and non-OECD countries will account for a 68 GW increase within this period. Global energy consumption from renewable sources will increase from 35 quadrillion Btu in 2005 to 59 quadrillion Btu in 2030 . Increases in renewable energy sources for non-OECD countries will concentrate on new hydropower plants in Asia and Central and South America. In OECD countries, increases in renewable energy will focus on wind, solar and biomass. From the 2001 U.S. National Energy Policy, the energy consumption of the United

Mine safety and geophysics

According to data from the International Energy Agency's and Energy Information Administration's Annual Energy Outlook 2006 and Projections to 2030, global coal consumption is approximately 5.2 billion tons per year and is projected to double by 2030. The coal is used for power generation, steel production, and, more recently, coal-to-liquids conversion. Currently, coal is the only fuel with adequate reserves and spare capacity to meet the world's growing energy demands using current technology, regulations, and infrastructure. As a result, coal mining companies are operating at almost full capacity, and expansions are underway.

The national security dividend of global carbon mitigation

Energy and environmental security objectives are often conflated in political circles and in the popular press. Results from a well-established integrated assessment model suggest that policies designed to stabilize atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations at levels above ∼500 ppm generally do not align with policies to curb global oil dependence, because these atmospheric objectives can be achieved largely through reductions in global coal consumption. Policies designed to stabilize atmospheric carbon dioxide at levels below ∼500 ppm, on the other hand, directly facilitate the alignment of environmental and security objectives because atmospheric targets in this range demand significant reductions in both coal and oil use. Greater recognition that investment in carbon mitigation can yield significant security dividends may alter the political cost–benefit calculus of energy-importing nations and could increase the willingness of some key global actors to seek binding cooperative targets under any post-Kyoto climate treaty regime.

Lignite and hard coal: Energy suppliers for world needs until the year 2100 — An outlook

Abstract For three years, international hard coal prices have been at rather expensive levels. Some argue that these higher prices might indicate the threat of a physical scarcity of fossil fuels — similar to the situation with oil and gas. This is not true. The supply situations with lignite and hard coal appear to be largely not critical. Adjusted to the rise in global coal consumption, which is expected until 2100, nature by and large can meet the world's coal demand. This is shown for lignite in this article and it is illustrated for hard coal here, differentiated in space and time for a world divided into eight regions and viewed for the years 2005, 2020, 2030, 2050, and 2100. The only area of potential concern is Asia (especially China). But today's and coming eager efforts in China to convert coal resources into reserves will most likely deliver the coal needed for the Chinese market. Up to the year 2100, and from a geoscientific point of view, there will be no bottleneck in coal supplies on this planet.