Global Centroid Moment Tensor Catalog Research Articles

Stress Variations in Southern Tonga Slab Derived From Deep‐Focus Earthquakes

AbstractTonga is a convergent plate boundary between the Pacific and Australian plates and is the fastest and the most seismically active deep subduction system in the world. We focused on southern Tonga (south of latitude 22°S) and the mantle transition zone (depths of 410–670 km), where seismic activity forms two subparallel bands of events in the east and west. We performed stress analysis by inverting focal mechanisms of earthquakes available in the Global Centroid Moment Tensor catalog and revealed two distinct stress regimes in the slab. While the stress orientation in the eastern slab segment conforms to the down‐dip compressional stress along the entire slab, the stress orientation in the western slab segment is different, having the maximum compression in the vertical direction. This suggests that the western segment can represent a stagnant slab with flattening and bending, as proposed by modeling studies. Its connection with the younger actively subducting slab is supported by the horizontal westward shift at 520 km depth. The stress analysis also indicates substantially different fault orientations in both segments. In the actively dipping slab, the majority of activated faults are predominantly sub‐horizontal. However, they are significantly inclined from vertical in the stagnant slab segment. A higher scatter in fault orientations in the stagnant slab suggests deformation, fragmentation and rheological complexity resulting from bending and flattening.

Apparent Non-Double-Couple Components as Artifacts of Moment Tensor Inversion

Compilations of earthquake moment tensors from global and regional catalogs find pervasive non-double-couple (NDC) componentswith a mean deviation from a double-couple (DC) source of around 20%. Their distributions vary only slightly with magnitude, faulting mechanism, or geologic environments. This consistency suggests thatfor most earthquakes, especially smaller ones whose rupture processes are expected to be simpler, the NDC components are largely artifacts of the moment tensor inversion procedure. This possibility is also supported by the fact that NDC components for individual earthquakes with Mw<6.5 are only weakly correlated betweencatalogs. We explore this possibility by generating synthetic seismograms for the double-couple components of earthquakes around theworld using one Earth model and inverting them with a different Earth model. To match the waveforms with a different Earth model, the inversion changes the mechanisms to include a substantial NDC component while largely preserving the fault geometry (DC component). The resulting NDC components have a size and distribution similar to those reported for the earthquakes in the Global Centroid Moment Tensor (GCMT) catalog. The fact that numerical experiments replicate general features of the pervasive NDC components reported in moment tensor catalogs implies that these components are largely artifacts of the inversions not adequately accounting for the effects of laterally varying Earth structure.

Which Global Moment Tensor Catalog Provides the Most Precise Non-Double-Couple Components?

Abstract The availability of digital seismic waveform data enabled compilation of seismic moment tensor catalogs that provide information about earthquake source processes beyond what could be derived from earlier methods that assume double-couple sources representing slip on planar faults. This additional versatility involves additional complexity. Moment tensors are determined by inversions minimizing the misfit between observed and synthetic waveforms, and depend on the specifics of the data inverted, the inversion algorithm, and the Earth structure assumed. Hence, substantial uncertainties arise in moment tensors and quantities derived from them, which can be assessed by comparing moment tensors from multiple global and regional catalogs using different data and inversion procedures. While the double-couple (DC) components of moment tensors are generally determined with greater certainty, non-double-couple (NDC) components for the same earthquake sometimes differ significantly between catalogs. This observation raises questions about the reliability of their determination and hence their geological significance. Using the correlation between NDC components in different catalogs, we quantify the reliability of NDC components in moment tensor catalogs through the determination of the effects of unmodeled and inaccurately modeled effects contained in them. We determine that the NDC components in the Global Centroid Moment Tensor catalog are, on average, more precise than in other catalogs, and thus studies on NDC components should be based on this catalog. Furthermore, their uncertainties are largely unrelated to uncertainties in the DC components. Therefore, the reliability of fault angles derived from a moment tensor is largely independent from the reliability of its NDC components.

CANVAS: An Adjoint Waveform Tomography Model of California and Nevada

AbstractWe present the California‐Nevada Adjoint Simulations (CANVAS) model, an adjoint waveform tomography model of the crust and uppermost mantle of the states of California and Nevada. We used WUS256 (Rodgers et al., 2022, https://doi.org/10.1029/2022jb024549) as the starting model and iteratively decreased the minimum period of CANVAS from 30 to 12 s. CANVAS was iterated in two distinct stages: the first stage with source mechanisms from the Global Centroid Moment Tensor (GCMT) catalog and the second stage with inverted moment tensors (MT) using the CANV_WUS model (Doody et al., 2023, https://doi.org/10.1029/2023jb026463). We show that updating the MTs with 3D Green's functions improved waveform fits and azimuthal coverage of windowed data used to calculate the gradients. As for the model itself, we improved waveform fits over WUS256, particularly in the dispersed surface waves. CANVAS resolved tectonic features seen in other models and accurately defined the depth to basement of major basins, including the Central Valley and the Ventura Basin. We propose CANVAS as a starting model for crustal tomography models on smaller scales.

Ransiki earthquakes, northeastern Bird’s Head Peninsula, northwestern New Guinea, Indonesia: Deformation partitioning in oblique plate convergence

The plate boundary between the Pacific-Caroline and Australian plates in northwestern New Guinea is associated with a geographic concentration of earthquakes developed in the Ransiki region of the northeastern Bird’s Head Peninsula (West Papua, northwestern New Guinea) at the intersection of the Ransiki and Yapen faults. We examine these earthquakes based on regional geomorphological and lithostratigraphical frameworks, field observations of surface ruptures and liquefaction phenomena, and focal mechanisms of historical earthquakes. The Ransiki earthquakes are a set of 29 earthquakes from the Global Centroid Moment Tensor catalogue in the period 1977–2019 (magnitudes of Mw4.9 to Mw7.5). In the east, focal mechanisms show sinistral movement along the east-west trending Yapen Fault including the Mw6.7 earthquake on 21 April 2012. The largest earthquake was on 10 October 2002 (Mw7.5) and along with other earthquakes mainly in the southwest were associated with dextral movement indicated by focal mechanism solutions on the northwest trending Ransiki Fault south of its intersection with the Yapen Fault. The southern part of the Ransiki Fault therefore indicates local north-northeast compression that is also evident in the newly recognised Wainoei Fault south of Yapen Island. The two largest earthquakes (10 October 2002, 21 April 2012) show ground effects associated with liquefaction, indicated by surface offsets, open fissures, and sand blows, that all occurred in saturated sediments of the Ransiki delta. Earthquakes in the Ransiki region show that west-southwest oblique plate convergence between the Australian and Pacific-Caroline plates is partitioned into east-west sinistral strike-slip motion along the Yapen Fault and north-northeast compression associated with the Ransiki Fault.

Variation of b-Value of Normal, Reverse and Strike-Slip Faulting Earthquakes with Focal Depth

A crucial factor in evaluating seismic activity, seismotectonics, and seismic hazard assessment is the distribution of earthquake sizes (b-value). The goal of this research is to explore the relation between depth and the b-constant values of normal, inverse, and strike-slip faulting earthquakes. The earthquake catalog used in this work was extracted from the Global Centroid Moment Tensor Catalog (GCMTC) and covers the period from 2008 to 2017. The focal depth of the selected tremors ranges from zero to 700 km. The magnitude of completeness for normal and reverse faulting events is 5.2 and 5.1 for strike-slip faulting events. The value of the b- constant was estimated using the maximum likelihood technique. The findings of regression analysis showed that there is an insignificant negative poor correlation relation between the b- value of the normal and strike-slip faulting events and depth, while that relation is an insignificant positive poor correlation for reverse faulting. The depth of the turning point for the b-constant value of normal and reverse faulting earthquakes is near the mantle seismic discontinuities 410 and 520 km. The depth of inflection points of b-constant value strike-slip faulting earthquakes is near to lithosphere-asthenosphere boundary (LAB) at depth of 250km and the mantle seismic discontinuity of 520km.

How many strong earthquakes will there be tomorrow?

In this note, we study the distribution of earthquake numbers in both worldwide and regional catalogs: in the Global Centroid Moment Tensor catalog, from 1980 to 2019 for magnitudes Mw 5. 5+ and 6.5+ in the first case, and in the Italian instrumental catalog from 1960 to 2021 for magnitudes Mw 4.0+ and 5.5+ in the second case. A subset of the global catalog is also used to study the Japanese region. We will focus our attention on short-term time windows of 1, 7, and 30 days, which have been poorly explored in previous studies. We model the earthquake numbers using two discrete probability distributions, i.e., Poisson and Negative Binomial. Using the classical chi-squared statistical test, we found that the Poisson distribution, widely used in seismological studies, is always rejected when tested against observations, while the Negative Binomial distribution cannot be disproved for magnitudes Mw 6.5+ in all time windows of the global catalog. However, if we consider the Japanese or the Italian regions, it cannot be proven that the Negative Binomial distribution performs better than the Poisson distribution using the chi-squared test. When instead we compared the performances of the two distributions using the Akaike Information Criterion, we found that the Negative Binomial distribution always performs better than the Poisson one. The results of this study suggest that the Negative Binomial distribution, largely ignored in seismological studies, should replace the Poisson distribution in modeling the number of earthquakes.

SETAS: A Spherical Version of the Space–Time ETAS Model

AbstractTo analyze and forecast seismicity globally or in high-latitude regions, and particularly in relation to remote seismicity interactions on a worldwide scale, we reformulate the space–time epidemic-type aftershock sequence (ETAS) model from a planar to a spherical version and implement it in a FORTRAN software package, spherical ETAS (SETAS). This article explains the details of the related algorithms and the usage of the package, which can fit the SETAS model to seismicity data from regions specified by three types of boundaries: no, quadrilateral, and spherical polygon boundaries. The software is tested with the Global Centroid Moment Tensor (Global CMT) catalog and compared to the original planar ETAS model by fitting both the versions to local seismicity in Japan and Alaska. The results show that the spherical model has a high computational efficiency, even with a large range of global data, and is consistent with the well-established planar version at the local scale.

The Geodetic Centroid (gCent) Catalog: Global Earthquake Monitoring with Satellite Imaging Geodesy

ABSTRACT Remote sensing geodetic observations (Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar [InSAR] and optical correlation [“pixel tracking”]) serve an increasingly diverse and important role in earthquake monitoring and response. This study introduces the Geodetic Centroid (gCent) catalog—an earthquake catalog derived solely from space-based geodetic observations—and analysis of 74 earthquakes (Mw 4.3–7.4) imaged from 1 August 2019 to 01 February 2022. For gCent, we use InSAR and optical correlation observations derived from the Sentinel-1 satellites and various publicly available optical satellites to systematically image all global earthquakes Mw 5.5 or larger and shallower than 25 km, Mw 7.0 or larger at any depth, and other high-impact earthquakes or seismic events of special interest. We invert surface displacements from successfully imaged earthquakes for the location, orientation, and dimensions of a single slipping fault patch that describes the centroid characteristics of the earthquake. These centroid models, in turn, are compiled into a catalog and used in U.S. Geological Survey/Advanced National Seismic System (ANSS) operational earthquake response products such as ShakeMaps and finite-fault models. We provide a comparison of the gCent catalog to the ANSS Comprehensive Catalog and Global Centroid Moment Tensor (Global CMT) catalog to compare reported locations, depths, and magnitudes. We find that global earthquake catalogs not only generally provide reasonably comparable locations (within 10 km on average), but also they systematically overestimate depth that may have implications for earthquake shaking predictions based solely on earthquake origin information. Geodetic magnitudes are comparable to seismically inferred magnitudes, indicating that gCent models are unlikely to be systematically biased by the presence of postseismic deformation. We additionally highlight limitations of the gCent catalog induced by both the limitations of remote sensing imaging of earthquakes and our imposition of a simplified earthquake source description that does not include spatially distributed slip.

Spatio-temporal clustering of successive earthquakes as inferred from analyses of global CMT and NIED F-net catalogs

Investigation of the characteristic behavior of successive earthquakes that closely occur in space and time is important to understand the generation mechanism of earthquakes and useful to assess a triggered earthquake, especially around the area, where a first large earthquake took place. Here, we analyzed the Global Centroid Moment Tensor catalog from 1976 to 2016 for shallow earthquakes with a moment magnitude, {M}_{w}, of at least 5.5, and the F-net catalog, Japan, for 4le {M}_{w}<5.5, to clarify the spatio-temporal characteristics of the successive earthquakes. We first sorted all of the earthquakes in time and removed the aftershocks that occurred in and around the faults of earthquakes with {M}_{w} larger than the target magnitude range we investigated. Then, we selected source events from the beginning and searched for earthquakes that occurred within a horizontal distance (D) and a lapsed time ({T}_{a}) from the source event to group them in clusters. Then, the source event was selected from the catalog in order, and the same procedure was repeated. We counted the number of clusters, each of which consisted of successive earthquakes, for different D and {T}_{a}. To examine whether successive earthquakes were explained by random occurrences, we compared the results with simulations in which earthquakes occurred randomly in time but at the same locations matching the centroids in the real data. The comparison showed that the number of clusters for the simulation rapidly increased with D and merged with that for real data at a short distance, which is defined here as the triggering distance. We find that triggering distance is proportional to about 1/5 to 1/4 of the seismic moment {(M}_{0}) of the source event, and exponentially decreases with increasing {T}_{a}. Relating the derived empirical scaling relations between {M}_{0} and triggering distance from the equations in the ETAS model, we show that the observed exponents of 1/5 to 1/4 were well predicted from the estimated ETAS parameters in various regions around the world. These consistencies first show that successive occurrence of earthquakes is well explained by the ETAS model.Graphical abstract

Natural Time Analysis of Global Seismicity

Natural time analysis enables the introduction of an order parameter for seismicity, which is just the variance of natural time χ, κ1=⟨χ2⟩−⟨χ⟩2. During the last years, there has been significant progress in the natural time analysis of seismicity. Milestones in this progress are the identification of clearly distiguishable minima of the fluctuations of the order parameter κ1 of seismicity both in the regional and global scale, the emergence of an interrelation between the time correlations of the earthquake (EQ) magnitude time series and these minima, and the introduction by Turcotte, Rundle and coworkers of EQ nowcasting. Here, we apply all these recent advances in the global seismicity by employing the Global Centroid Moment Tensor (GCMT) catalog. We show that the combination of the above three milestones may provide useful precursory information for the time of occurrence and epicenter location of strong EQs with M≥8.5 in GCMT. This can be achieved with high statistical significance (p-values of the order of 10−5), while the epicentral areas lie within a region covering only 4% of that investigated.

Global centroid moment tensor solutions in a heterogeneous earth: the CMT3D catalogue

SUMMARYFor over 40 yr, the global centroid-moment tensor (GCMT) project has determined location and source parameters for globally recorded earthquakes larger than magnitude 5.0. The GCMT database remains a trusted staple for the geophysical community. Its point-source moment-tensor solutions are the result of inversions that model long-period observed seismic waveforms via normal-mode summation for a 1-D reference earth model, augmented by path corrections to capture 3-D variations in surface wave phase speeds, and to account for crustal structure. While this methodology remains essentially unchanged for the ongoing GCMT catalogue, source inversions based on waveform modelling in low-resolution 3-D earth models have revealed small but persistent biases in the standard modelling approach. Keeping pace with the increased capacity and demands of global tomography requires a revised catalogue of centroid-moment tensors (CMT), automatically and reproducibly computed using Green's functions from a state-of-the-art 3-D earth model. In this paper, we modify the current procedure for the full-waveform inversion of seismic traces for the six moment-tensor parameters, centroid latitude, longitude, depth and centroid time of global earthquakes. We take the GCMT solutions as a point of departure but update them to account for the effects of a heterogeneous earth, using the global 3-D wave speed model GLAD-M25. We generate synthetic seismograms from Green's functions computed by the spectral-element method in the 3-D model, select observed seismic data and remove their instrument response, process synthetic and observed data, select segments of observed and synthetic data based on similarity, and invert for new model parameters of the earthquake’s centroid location, time and moment tensor. The events in our new, preliminary database containing 9382 global event solutions, called CMT3D for ‘3-D centroid-moment tensors’, are on average 4 km shallower, about 1 s earlier, about 5 per cent larger in scalar moment, and more double-couple in nature than in the GCMT catalogue. We discuss in detail the geographical and statistical distributions of the updated solutions, and place them in the context of earlier work. We plan to disseminate our CMT3D solutions via the online ShakeMovie platform.

On the Potential of Rapid Moment Magnitude Estimation for Strong Earthquakes in Sichuan–Yunnan Region, China, Using Real-Time CMONOC GNSS Observations

Abstract High-rate (≥1 Hz) real-time Global Navigation Satellite Systems (GNSS) data have been now incorporated into earthquake early warning systems where dense GNSS network exists, like the United States west coast, Japan, and so on. In this manuscript, we exploit the potential of rapid moment magnitude (Mw) estimation in Sichuan–Yunnan region using GNSS records from Crustal Movement Observation Network of China (CMONOC) for seven magnitude (M) ≥ 6 events from 2011 to 2020. We find that currently it is still quite challenging to get reliable Mw using the peak ground displacement or peak ground velocity approach, which is caused by the sparse stations and probably the inaccurate scaling law itself. By contrast, the Mw estimations from focal mechanism grid search are all consistent with Global Centroid Moment Tensor catalog, even by one station. Considering the CMONOC network is going to be densified in the coming decade, it is expected that high-rate GNSS waveforms will play a more important role in fast postevent response.

A Statistical Approach Towards Fast Estimates of Moderate-To-Large Earthquake Focal Mechanisms

Emerging high-performance computing systems, combined with increasingly detailed 3-D Earth models and physically consistent numerical wave propagation solvers, are opening up new opportunities for urgent seismic computing. This may help, for instance, to guide emergency response teams in the wake of large earthquakes. A key component of urgent seismic computing is the early availability of source mechanism estimates, well before conventional and time-consuming moment tensor inversions are carried out and published. Here, we introduce a methodology that rapidly estimates focal mechanisms (FM) for moderate and large earthquakes (Mw &amp;gt; 4.0) by means of statistical and clustering algorithms. The fundamental rationale behind the method is that events of a certain size tend to be similar to other events of similar size in similar locations. In this work, two different strategies are used to provide different FM solutions: the first is based only in spatial considerations including statistical analysis, and the other one is based on a data clustering algorithm. We exemplify our methodology with six different subsets of the open-access Global Centroid Moment Tensor (GCMT) catalog. Specifically, our study datasets include events from Japan, New Zealand, California, Mexico, Iceland, and Italy, which represent six seismically active regions, with a large FM variability. Our results show a 70–85% agreement between our fast FM estimates and inversion results, depending on the particular tectonic region, dataset size, and magnitude threshold. In addition, our FM estimation strategies only spend few seconds for processing, since they are totally independent of seismic record retrieval and inversion. Albeit not meant to be a substitute for CMT inversions, our methodologies can bridge the time gap between earthquake detection and FM inversion.

Using InSAR for evaluating the accuracy of locations and focal mechanism solutions of local earthquake catalogues

SUMMARYEarthquake source parameters play a fundamental role in evaluating seismic hazard. In many countries, the relatively low accuracy of the earthquake source parameters owing to sparse seismic monitoring networks prevents accurate seismic hazard evaluation. Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar (InSAR) is a useful tool for accurate fault parameter determination of shallow inland earthquakes. We compared the fault parameters (location and rupture geometry) derived from InSAR with those derived from local and global seismic data to assess the credibility of the earthquake catalogues. We set our targets to Iran and Japan, where seismic networks are relatively sparse and dense, respectively, and analysed a total of 10 shallow inland earthquakes. To compare the fault parameters for each studied earthquake, we first created interferograms using InSAR data from multiple satellites and conducted fault model inversions assuming uniform slip on a rectangular finite fault. For the studied Iranian earthquakes, the epicentres of the United States Geological Survey (USGS) catalogue were more consistent with the InSAR-derived fault model compared to those of the local catalogue of the Iranian Seismological Center (IRSC). For the studied Japanese earthquakes, the epicentres of the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) catalogue were more consistent with the InSAR-derived fault model compared to those of the USGS. Assuming that the accuracy of the USGS locations is comparable for the two countries, the JMA catalogue has a higher accuracy than the IRSC catalogue. The difference in the accuracy for the two local catalogues can be explained by the larger azimuthal gaps of the IRSC seismic network. We also showed that the IRSC- and JMA-derived centroids were more consistent with the InSAR-derived fault model compared to those of the Global Centroid Moment Tensor (GCMT) catalogue. The focal mechanism solutions derived from InSAR and seismic CMT solutions were significantly different, highlighting the difficulties in determining the focal mechanism parameters from seismic data, even when the seismic station coverage is dense. As InSAR data can be easily accessed, this study presents a cost-effective method to assess and improve the accuracy of the local earthquake catalogues anywhere in the world.

Estimation of the Tapered Gutenberg-Richter Distribution Parameters for Catalogs with Variable Completeness: An Application to the Atlantic Ridge Seismicity

The use of the tapered Gutenberg-Richter distribution in earthquake source models is rapidly increasing, allowing overcoming the definition of a hard threshold for the maximum magnitude. Here, we expand the classical maximum likelihood estimation method for estimating the parameters of the tapered Gutenberg-Richter distribution, allowing the use of a variable through-time magnitude of completeness. Adopting a well-established technique based on asymptotic theory, we also estimate the uncertainties relative to the parameters. Differently from other estimation methods for catalogs with a variable completeness, available for example for the classical truncated Gutenberg-Richter distribution, our approach does not need the assumption on the distribution of the number of events (usually the Poisson distribution). We test the methodology checking the consistency of parameter estimations with synthetic catalogs generated with multiple completeness levels. Then, we analyze the Atlantic ridge seismicity, using the global centroid moment tensor catalog, finding that our method allows better constraining distribution parameters, allowing the use more data than estimations based on a single completeness level. This leads to a sharp decrease in the uncertainties associated with the parameter estimation, when compared with existing methods based on a single time-independent magnitude of completeness. This also allows analyzing subsets of events, to deepen data analysis. For example, separating normal and strike-slip events, we found that they have significantly different but well-constrained corner magnitudes. Instead, without distinguishing for focal mechanism and considering all the events in the catalog, we obtain an intermediate value that is relatively less constrained from data, with an open confidence region.

Earthquake source characterization by machine learning algorithms applied to acoustic signals

Underwater seismic events generate acoustic radiation (such as acoustic-gravity waves), that carries information about the source and can travel long distances before dissipating. Effective early warning, emergency response, and information dissemination for earthquakes and tsunamis require a rapid characterisation of the fault properties: geometry and dynamics. In this work, we analysed hydrophone recordings of 201 earthquakes, located in the Pacific and the Indian Ocean, by employing acoustic signal processing and classification methods. The analysis allows identifying the type of earthquake (i.e. slip type, magnitude) and provides near real-time estimation of the effective properties of the fault dynamics and geometry. The results were compared against values reported by the Harvard Global Centroid Moment Tensor catalog (gCMT), revealing statistical significance between the extracted acoustic properties used to feed machine learning algorithms and the predicted slip and magnitude values.

Investigating Time Dependent Stress Changes Globally Following Large Earthquakes (M≥7)

Triggered earthquakes can cause disproportionate damages depend on their magnitudes. In fact, there is a causal link between the spatial distribution of those events and the stress changes induced by the mainshock. Co-seismic stress loading is one of the key factors in determination of triggering mechanism. However, the time lags ranging hours to years and the stress diffusion over wider areas cannot be evaluated with the co-seismic process alone. In some cases, the stress interactions for long periods and larger areas can be attributed to post-seismic viscoelastic relaxations. In this study, M≥7 earthquakes from the Global Centroid Moment Tensor (GMCT) catalogue are modelled as dislocations to calculate shear stress changes on following earthquake nodal planes near enough to be triggered. The catalogue scanned for all other events (4.5&amp;lt;M&amp;lt;7) that occurred within ±2° from the centroid rupture planes. According to Omori law, which is one of the most reliable time predictable diagram of aftershock distributions, 10-year periods were used for the stress calculations. The events that had computed within ±0.01 to ±1 MPa stress change limits, considered as potential triggered events. The global co-seismic stress calculations show that 60.6% of the triggered events occurred in regions where the shear stress increased. The global stress change by incorporation viscous flow into co-seismic stress change were also tested. In this case, an increase in the rate of triggered events in both positive (15%) and negative (9%) shear stress areas were obtained. Despite the rate of triggered events has climbed significantly in both areas, only 2% of the changes have been computed globally. These rates are highly depending on fault mechanism across the plate boundaries. Thrust faults in the catalogue, for example, influence the stress distribution over broader regions and the dimension of fault ruptures. Therefore, thrust faults in the catalogue prevails the global statistics for both co-seismic and viscoelastic stress calculations. The results also demonstrate the significant effect of viscous flow, following large earthquakes, which cannot be neglected in stress interaction analysis.

A Testable Worldwide Earthquake Faulting Mechanism Model

Abstract In this article, we present a simple model to forecast global focal mechanisms. This model is based on a simple discrete counting distribution of the global centroid moment tensor catalog, and it also includes, using a Bayesian scheme, the a priori information from the Anderson theory of faulting. Our model is tested in hindcasting mode against independent data of global large earthquakes with Ms≥7. We obtained statistically significant good agreement between model and data using consistency test, demonstrating that this simple model can satisfactorily forecast focal mechanisms at the global scale. The defined testing procedure can be used to test the model in prospective mode against future events. These forecasts may inform short- to long-term hazard quantifications that require a finite source characterization, as well as real-time source inversion algorithms.

The Reliance of the Earthquake B-Value on Depth and Focal Mechanism

The earthquake size distribution (b-value) is a significant factor to recognize the seismic activity, seismotectonic, and seismic hazard assessment. In the current work, the connection of the b-constant value with the focal depth and mechanism was studied. The effect of the study scale (global, regional and local) on the dependence of b-value on the focal mechanisms was investigated. The database is quoted from the Global Centroid Moment Tensor catalog. The selected earthquakes are the shallow normal, reverse and strike-slip events. The completeness magnitude (Mc) is 5.3. The maximum likelihood method is utilized to compute the b-value. The obtained results show that the b-value is decreasing with depth to range 10-20 km, then increases to the depth of 40km. The turning point of b-value (increasing of b-value) locates at the depth of the transition brittle-ductile zone. Globally and regionally, low, moderate, and high b-values are associated with reverse, strike-slip, and normal focal mechanisms, respectively, while locally, the relation between b-values and focal mechanisms shows different association trends, such as low, moderate, and high b-values are associated with normal, strike-slip, and reverse focal mechanisms and so on.