Abstract
Abstract In this article, we present a simple model to forecast global focal mechanisms. This model is based on a simple discrete counting distribution of the global centroid moment tensor catalog, and it also includes, using a Bayesian scheme, the a priori information from the Anderson theory of faulting. Our model is tested in hindcasting mode against independent data of global large earthquakes with Ms≥7. We obtained statistically significant good agreement between model and data using consistency test, demonstrating that this simple model can satisfactorily forecast focal mechanisms at the global scale. The defined testing procedure can be used to test the model in prospective mode against future events. These forecasts may inform short- to long-term hazard quantifications that require a finite source characterization, as well as real-time source inversion algorithms.
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