Existential Threat Research Articles

Neutrality during the Great war (M. Abbenhuis, I. Tames. Global War, Global Catastrophe. Neutrals, Belligerents and the Transformation of the First World War. London: Bloomsbury Academic, 2022. 238 p.)

Neutrality during the Great war (M. Abbenhuis, I. Tames. Global War, Global Catastrophe. Neutrals, Belligerents and the Transformation of the First World War. London: Bloomsbury Academic, 2022. 238 p.)

Research on the Socio-Spatial Resilience Evaluation and Evolution of the Central Area of Beijing in Transitional China

In recent decades, the increasing threats of global climate change, natural disasters, and epidemics have brought extensive attention to resilience theory. However, most studies focus on the physical aspects of cities, overlooking the significance of the social perspective. This study addresses this gap by using social areas as the core spatial unit for analysis. By constructing a scientific indicator system and employing the set pair analysis method, this study comprehensively evaluates the multidimensional resilience levels of Beijing’s central area during its transitional period (1990–2020). The findings reveal that socio-spatial divisions, which emphasize the network structure of social relations and the dynamic changes in social spaces, are more suitable than traditional administrative divisions as fundamental units for resilience assessment. During Beijing’s transitional period, the comprehensive resilience of the central area and all social areas steadily increased, although social capital resilience faced the challenges of loss and slow recovery. Social areas with a unique internal connection, such as those based on ethnicity, exhibited more positive social capital resilience development. Additionally, social areas with lower population diversity and greater homogeneity tended to have higher comprehensive resilience and a more positive trend in social capital resilience development, whereas highly heterogeneous social areas faced significant constraints in resilience development. These findings may provide valuable insights for cities and communities to enhance their capacity to address future uncertainties and assist policymakers in making informed governance decisions.

Ripples of Negligence: Unravelling Iraq’s Descent from Water Abundance to Scarcity

ABSTRACT This study critically assesses security dynamics in developing nations, centering on water scarcity in Iraq. It challenges the reductionist perspective that equates security solely with the absence of military threats, positing instead that the governing body itself can constitute an existential threat to the state. Many developing countries, typified by a myopic conception of security, have engendered internal insecurity. Iraq exemplifies this paradigm, where successive ruling elites, marked by military adventurism and administrative incompetence, directly precipitate water scarcity. The nation’s ominous trajectory results from governmental prioritization of external threats over essential societal well-being. This article elucidates the intricate interplay between governance priorities and societal vulnerabilities, advocating for a more comprehensive understanding of security that transcends conventional militaristic frameworks. The analysis underscores the urgent need for recalibrating security paradigms in developing countries to address internal threats emanating from governmental neglect and skewed priorities.

Economic insecurity and pension participation in Ghana’s music sector

ABSTRACT Economic insecurity represents an existential threat to many workers, not least those in the Creative and Cultural Sector (CCS). Based on recent survey data from Ghanaian musicians gathered between April 2022 and March 2023, this paper presents indicative findings which demonstrate a persistent pension savings gap, with only about one in seven musicians in the sample (14.6%) reporting participation in a pension scheme – explained by both demand-side reasons (i.e. indecision about enrolment, not having the financial wherewithal to contribute regularly or not knowing about existing pension schemes) and supply-side reasons (i.e. limited pension options developed with the involvement of musicians). The paper also finds that while education level, age, location, and marital/family status appear to be important factors, in relative terms, there was little evidence to suggest that any group was more likely than the other to participate in a pension scheme. To improve pensions uptake, the paper argues that a long overdue, deliberate policy strategy should involve piloting a dedicated group personal pension scheme for musicians and testing savings commitments in the case of voluntary schemes over the long term and short term, respectively, with both going hand in hand with pension literacy programmes and incentives, wherever necessary.

The double awareness of the wish to hasten death and the will to live: A secondary analysis of outlier patients from a mixed-methods study

Background: Patients with serious illness frequently report (temporary) wishes to hasten death. Even until the end-of-life, many patients also harbor a will to live. Although both phenomena are negatively correlated according to some studies, they can also co-exist. Knowledge about the complex relationship between the seemingly opposing wish to hasten death and will to live is limited, but crucial for delivering adequate care and understanding potential requests for assisted dying. Aim: To study the correlation of and explore the relationship between wish to hasten death and will to live over 6 weeks. Design: Observatory, prospective cohort study following a mixed methods design. Analysis of quantitative (Schedules of Attitudes Toward Hastened Death, a visual numerical scale and (additional) validated questionnaires) and qualitative (semi-structured interviews) data with illustrative case descriptions. Setting/participants: Patients receiving palliative care with heterogenous underlying diseases from various care settings, before and after an open conversation on a possible desire to die. Results: In n = 85 patients, wish to hasten death and will to live were strongly negatively correlated at three time points (baseline: r(65) = −0.647, p ⩽ 0.001; after 1 week: r(55) = −0.457, p ⩽ 0.001 and after 4–6 weeks: r(43) = −0.727, p ⩽ 0.001). However, visual assessment of scatterplots revealed a small, but substantial number of outliers. When focusing on these outlier patients, they showed clinically relevant changes between baseline and 6 weeks with the wish to hasten death changing in n = 9 (15% of n = 60) and the will to live changing in n = 11 (18.6% of n = 59). Interview data of three outlier cases illustrates unusual trajectories and possible factors which may influence them. Conclusions: As they can co-exist in different possible combinations, a high wish to hasten death does not necessarily imply a low will to live and vice versa. Patients receiving palliative care can hold such seemingly opposing positions in mind as a form of coping when confronted with an existential threat of serious illness. Therefore, health professionals are encouraged to proactively engage patients in conversation about both phenomena.

Effect of Climate Change on Wildlife

Climate change is a global catastrophe that disrupts the balance of ecosystem by altering the climatic measures. Human being are not the only living species on earth that is affected by climate change. All the inhabitants on Earth are dependent on suitable living conditions for their survival. All human and non-human species on Earth either directly or indirectly relying on each other. Wildlife is the key indicator of climatic changes in the environment as they are part of various biological and ecological cycles in the atmosphere. Over the century, the atmospheric temperature has increased around 1.1°C. Changes in climatic conditions is affecting the terrestrial and aquatic biomes in plenty of ways. Limiting basic living conditions of animals by destruction of their natural habitation and its transformation into urban lands which intensifies the human-wildlife interactions. Migration of temperature sensitive species to the areas of higher altitude. High temperatures have increased the occurrence of wild-land fires, floods and droughts five times more than past 50 years. Animals naturally respond to altering climatic conditions by exhibiting changes in their general and reproductive behavior, growth patterns, increased zoonotic diseases. All these above cited effect put them to the status of endangered species and ultimately to the extinction. Strategic approaches i.e., protection, management, planning and evaluation of natural biomes to conserve the Earth’s biodiversity must be opted to avoid the extinction of wild species.

Assessing the Impact of Derivatives on the 2008 Financial Crisis and the Effectiveness of Subsequent Regulatory Reforms

The 2008 financial crisis was a global financial catastrophe that reflected the misuse of financial derivatives in financial markets, such as credit default swaps, asset-backed securities and collateralized debt obligations, exposing significant weaknesses in the global financial system. These financial instruments were designed to hedge against debt risk, but their lack of transparency and massive misuse ultimately led to the accumulation of systemic risk that accelerated the financial crisis. Since then, regulatory authorities around the world have realized the necessity for stronger regulatory frameworks, and a series of significant reforms have been implemented, such as the Dodd-Frank Wall Street Reform and Consumer Protection Act in the United States, the European Market Infrastructure Regulation in the European Union, and the Basel III international regulatory framework, with the objectives of increasing transparency in financial markets and improving the risk management measures of financial institutions. This paper will explore the role of derivatives in the 2008 financial crisis and examine the effectiveness of these regulatory measures introduced after the crisis in enhancing stability of financial system.

On singularity and the Stoics: why Stoicism offers a valuable approach to navigating the risks of AI (Artificial Intelligence)

AbstractThe potential benefits and risks of artificial intelligence technologies have sparked a wide-ranging debate in both academic and public circles. On one hand, there is an urgent call to address the immediate and avoidable challenges associated with these tools, such as accountability, privacy, bias, understandability, and transparency; on the other hand, prominent figures like Geoffrey Hinton and Elon Musk have voiced concerns over the potential rise of Super Artificial Intelligence, whose singularity could pose an existential threat to humanity. Coordinating the efforts of thousands of decentralized entities to prevent such a hypothetical event may seem insurmountable in our intricate and multipolar world. Thus, drawing from both perspectives, this work suggests employing the tools and framework of Stoic philosophy, particularly the concept of the dichotomy of control—focusing on what is within our power. This Stoic principle offers a practical and epistemological approach to managing the complexities of AI, and it encourages individuals to organize their efforts around what they can influence while adapting to the constraints of external factors. Within this framework, the essay found that Stoic wisdom is essential for assessing risks, courage is necessary to face contemporary challenges, and temperance and tranquility are indispensable; and these lessons can inform ongoing public and academic discourse, aiding in the development of more effective policy proposals for aligning Narrow AI and General AI with human values.

Acting like Living in a Panopticon? Hong Kong Social entrepreneurs’ Perceptions of Risks and Vulnerabilities

Hong Kong faces significant business and social uncertainty, which affects social entrepreneurs’ perceptions of risks and vulnerabilities. This study examines their narratives, taking into account the influence of Chinese propaganda, discourse and fear. Their experiences are likened to Foucault’s panopticism, where entrepreneurs feel constantly monitored, which influences their behaviour and statements. This study investigates 26 Hong Kong social enterprises through semi-structured qualitative interviews, where entrepreneurs expressed vulnerabilities, particularly of products, marketing, business model, staff, finance, low capacity and mission-related issues. Entrepreneurs also cited significant risks such as financial, operational, marketing, competitive, market, existential and political risks.

Measuring climate change perception in China using mental images: A nationwide open-ended survey.

Current knowledge about public climate change perception mainly covers belief, concern, and attitudes. However, how this discourse is interpreted using individuals' own frame of reference remains largely unknown, particularly in many large emitters from non-Annex I countries such as China. This study, for the first time, performs a nationwide open-ended survey covering 4,037 respondents and collected 12,100 textual answers. Using a semiautomated coding method, we find seven mental images that exclusively represent the Chinese interpretation of the climate change issue, including global warming, distant icons, natural disasters, environmental degradation, cause, solution, and weather. Analysis of influencing factors shows that females, those with lower education levels, lower income, and older individuals tend to connect climate change with natural weather phenomena. Younger and well-educated residents in developed cities are more aware of various consequences and anthropogenic causes of climate change. People with stronger climate change beliefs, policy support, and personal experience of extreme weather are more likely to mention disastrous impacts, carbon emission as causes, and potential solutions. Employing the multilevel regression and post-stratification technique, we map the prevalence of mental images in China at the prefecture-city level. The results reveal significant geographical heterogeneity, with estimated national means ranging from a high of 55% (weather) to a low of 11% (solution). Our findings reveal diverse perspectives and a widespread misconception of climate change in China, suggesting the need for tailored clarification strategies to gain public consent.

Life-Suspending Technologies, Cryonics, and Catastrophic Risks

I defend the claim that life-suspending technologies can constitute a catastrophic and existential security factor for risks structurally similar to those related to climate change. The gist of the argument is that, under certain conditions, life-suspending technologies such as cryonics can provide self-interested actors with incentives to efficiently tackle such risks—in particular, they provide reasons to overcome certain manifestations of generational egoism, a risk factor of several catastrophic and existential risks. Provided we have reasons to decrease catastrophic and existential risks such as climate change, we also have a (defeasible) reason for investing in developing and making life-suspending technologies (more) widespread.

Eco-emotional Responses to Climate Change: A Scoping Review of Social Work Literature

Abstract The existential threat of climate change to the future of human and non-human well-being evokes complex emotional responses. The aim of this study was to explore the extent and nature of social work literature relating to eco-emotions. Eco-emotions refer to a diverse array of emotional responses to climate change, for example, anxiety, anger and hope. A scoping review explored scholarly databases to examine literature relating to eco-emotions between 2000 and 2023. Data were extracted from the articles to synthesise key characteristics, and thematic analysis was undertaken to identify themes emerging from the data. The scoping review yielded a total of seven articles with a focus on worry, anxiety, hope and empathy. Themes identified were related to intergenerational relationships, eco-emotional fluidity and multidimensional practice. Drawing on the profession’s established knowledge base, eco-social work provides a framework for engaging with eco-emotions. Furthermore, acknowledging eco-emotions specific to First Nations peoples in the context of colonialism and incorporating Indigenous knowledges to improve planetary health are essential for a decolonised approach to eco-emotional practice. Given social work’s increasing engagement with climate change, this review highlights the need for greater awareness of and engagement with eco-emotions.

Highest ocean heat in four centuries places Great Barrier Reef in danger

Mass coral bleaching on the Great Barrier Reef (GBR) in Australia between 2016 and 2024 was driven by high sea surface temperatures (SST)1. The likelihood of temperature-induced bleaching is a key determinant for the future threat status of the GBR2, but the long-term context of recent temperatures in the region is unclear. Here we show that the January–March Coral Sea heat extremes in 2024, 2017 and 2020 (in order of descending mean SST anomalies) were the warmest in 400 years, exceeding the 95th-percentile uncertainty limit of our reconstructed pre-1900 maximum. The 2016, 2004 and 2022 events were the next warmest, exceeding the 90th-percentile limit. Climate model analysis confirms that human influence on the climate system is responsible for the rapid warming in recent decades. This attribution, together with the recent ocean temperature extremes, post-1900 warming trend and observed mass coral bleaching, shows that the existential threat to the GBR ecosystem from anthropogenic climate change is now realized. Without urgent intervention, the iconic GBR is at risk of experiencing temperatures conducive to near-annual coral bleaching3, with negative consequences for biodiversity and ecosystems services. A continuation on the current trajectory would further threaten the ecological function4 and outstanding universal value5 of one of Earth’s greatest natural wonders.

AGI crimes? The role of criminal law in mitigating existential risks posed by artificial general intelligence

AbstractThe recent developments in applications of artificial intelligence bring back discussion about risks posed by AI. Among immediate risks that need to be tackled here and now, there is also a possible problem of existential threats related to Artificial General Intelligence (AGI). There is a discussion on how to mitigate those risks by appropriate regulations. It seems that one commonly accepted assumption is that the problem is global, and thus, it needs to be tackled first of all on an international level. In this paper, I argue that national criminal laws should also be considered one of the possible regulatory tools for mitigating threats posed by AGI. I propose to enact AGI crimes that complement the varieties of legal responses to existential risks that might motivate and speed up further regulatory changes.

Education for deliberative democracy through the long-term view

This article argues that conceptualization through the long-term view strengthens the case for education for deliberative democracy. This is due to two key factors. First, education for deliberative democracy has novel potential in helping curb the negative effects of political polarization, which, when analyzed through longtermism, can be identified as an important existential risk factor. Second, education for deliberative democracy enables societies to defuse the threat of a value lock-in, and in doing so to keep their cognitive space open to enable increased flexibility in dealing with new challenges that will arise in the future. Consequently, this article further argues that education for deliberative democracy as an education initiative can be normatively justified but acknowledges that there are still theoretical and practical hurdles to overcome, and thus calls for more research into developing a mature, pedagogically sound program of education for deliberative democracy.

Pakistan's national COVID-19 response: lessons from an emergent response to the pandemic.

In 2020, Pakistan faced the formidable challenge of the COVID-19 pandemic with an existing yet disjointed healthcare infrastructure, that included by over 18,000 public and an estimated 75,000 private health facilities and some elements of an epidemic surveillance and response system. This descriptive study examines how Pakistan developed a COVID-19 response, driven by establishing a central coordination and decision-making mechanism to overcome these systemic challenges. The study is based on interviews and interactions of the many actors in the response by the authors, who also participated in nearly all proceedings of the National Command and Operation Centre (NCOC) and many of the National Coordination Committee (NCC). This information is supplemented by reviewing documents, reports, news items, media and social media, and journal articles. The study highlights the critical role of political arrangement, where the NCC, comprising of ministers, bureaucrats, and military personnel, facilitated federal and provincial integration. The NCC found resources and set policy. Its direction was implemented by the NCOC, a top-down yet inclusive platform, integrated political, military, and civil society actors, to ensure cohesive decision-making and implementation. It provided technical guidance, harnessed data for strategic decisions and held implementers accountable. At its peak, the NCOC boasted nearly 300 personnel, including high-ranking military officers, a stark contrast to the limited staffing in most ministries. In addition, the response's success is attributed to the perception of COVID-19 as an existential threat, leading to unprecedented collaboration and decisive actions that were enforced authoritatively. Pakistan's experience offers valuable insights for proactive management of health emergencies in resource-limited settings. It underscores the necessity for inter-sectoral dialog and data-driven policy implementation, especially in the context of political economies where activity-driven governance often overshadows objective-driven policy execution. However, the lessons from the COVID-19 response, including a blueprint for future epidemic responses and lessons for use of data and evidence in developing country health systems, if not institutionalized, risk being lost in the post-pandemic era.

Peculiarities of achieving the sustainable development goals in interaction wit private international law

Regrettably, the triple global catastrophe of pollution, natural loss, and climate change coexists with the global socioeconomic problems of poverty and inequality. Temperatures are increasing at an unprecedented rate; biodiversity is disappearing swiftly, with potentially dire consequences for all of us; and pollution is becoming a global issue, killing millions of people annually and continuing to worsen. There is no normative vacuum in which the 169 targets and 17 Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) were born or placed. They are based on international law and designed to be compliant with the commitments made in a number of soft law instruments and international agreements. There is, of course, a connection between international law and the SDGs. What kind of relationship do they have? How much and how may the SDGs and international law complement one another to improve systems integration .In an effort to leverage the relationship for global sustainability, this paper investigates these issues from two angles. First, do the SDGs play a key role in bringing together different international organizations to work toward the ultimate goal of sustainable development? Most international institutions function in relative isolation and may pursue conflicting interests since they are engrossed in their respective mandates and goals. Goal-setting, as a governance technique to prioritize, motivate, and provide direction, has been proposed by some observers as a way to improve the overall performance of current institutions in fostering sustainable development. Insofar as providing consistency to an otherwise divergent and even inconsistent set of institutional arrangements, how effective are the SDGs likely to be? Second, is it conceivable that international law will aid in the integrated implementation of the SDGs? The SDGs themselves have come under fire for lacking consistency, even though they pride themselves on being “integrated and indivisible. This is a problem since the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) experience has demonstrated that achieving these governance goals on their own could have unforeseen consequences. While certain MDG targets were achieved, the MDGs’ spirit was not. Then, despite its fragmented structure, how and to what degree may international law integrate the SDGs and aims and aid in the achievement of long-term sustainable development.

Global Landslide Finder: Detecting the Time and Place of Landslides with Dense Earth Observation Time Series

This paper presents a remote sensing approach for rapidly and automatically generating maps of surface disturbances caused by landslides on the global scale. Our approach not only identifies the locations of these disturbances but also pinpoints the estimated time of their occurrence. Using the Continuous Change Detection and Classification (CCDC) algorithm within the Google Earth Engine (GEE) platform, we analyzed two decades of Landsat 5, 7, and 8 surface reflectance data. We tested this approach in five landslide-prone regions: Iburi (Japan), Kashmir (Pakistan), Karnataka (India), Porgera (Papua New Guinea), and Pasang Lhamu (Nepal). The results were promising, with R2 values ranging up to 0.85, indicating a robust correlation between detected disturbances and actual landslide events compared to manually made inventories. The accuracy metrics further validated our method, with a producer’s accuracy of 75%, a user’s accuracy of 73%, and an F1 score of 75%. Furthermore, the method proved well transferable across different locations. These findings demonstrate the method’s potential as a valuable tool for near real-time and historical analysis of landslide activity, thereby contributing to global disaster management and mitigation efforts.

Instrumentalization of Fake News and Fake News Laws: A Content Analysis of Hong Kong Newspapers in Transitional Times

ABSTRACT The debate around disinformation has shifted to the political instrumentalization of the term fake news, a growing global trend affecting both democratic and less-democratic countries. While researchers have paid much attention to the consequences of disinformation or how fake news allegations could harm journalism and democracies, few have examined how the term may be instrumentalized to restrict press and political freedoms in non-Western contexts under an authoritarian turn. Through a quantitative content analysis, this paper explores how the term fake news is used in Hong Kong’s newspapers with diverse political inclinations. The paper goes on to analyze how the discursive uses of the term may be connected to the framing of fake news as an existential threat and to the legitimization or critique of fake news laws. The findings show that uses of the term as an attack to adverse media outlets and political opponents are most frequent in state-owned newspapers. State-owned newspapers are also most likely to frame fake news as an existential security issue and legislation as a solution. Implications of the findings as well as theoretical and empirical contributions are discussed.

Severe cold-water bleaching of a deep-water reef underscores future challenges for Mesophotic Coral Ecosystems

Elevated sea surface temperatures are causing an increase in coral bleaching events worldwide, and represent an existential threat to coral reefs. Early studies of Mesophotic Coral Ecosystems (MCEs) highlighted their potential as thermal refuges for shallow-water coral species in the face of predicted 21st century warming. However, recent genetic evidence implies that limited ecological connectivity between shallow- and deep-water coral communities inhibits their effectiveness as refugia; instead MCEs host distinct endemic communities that are ecologically significant in and of themselves. In either scenario, understanding the response of MCEs to climate change is critical given their ecological significance and widespread global distribution. Such an understanding has so far eluded the community, however, because of the challenges associated with long-term field monitoring, the stochastic nature of climatic events that drive bleaching, and the paucity of deep-water observations. Here we document the first observed cold-water bleaching of a mesophotic coral reef at Clipperton Atoll, a remote Eastern Tropical Pacific (ETP) atoll with high coral cover and a well-developed MCE. The severe bleaching (>70 % partially or fully bleached coral cover at 32 m depth) was driven by an anomalously shallow thermocline, and highlights a significant and previously unreported challenge for MCEs. Prompted by these observations, we compiled published cold-water bleaching events for the ETP, and demonstrate that the timing of past cold-water bleaching events in the ETP coincides with decadal oscillations in mean zonal wind strength and thermocline depth. The latter observation suggests any future intensification of easterly winds in the Pacific could be a significant concern for its MCEs. Our observations, in combination with recent reports of warm-water bleaching of Red Sea and Indian Ocean MCEs, highlight that 21st century MCEs in the Eastern Pacific face a two-pronged challenge: warm-water bleaching from above, and cold-water bleaching from below.