Global Carbon Storage Research Articles

Tropical forest AGB estimation based on structure parameters extracted by TomoSAR

Forests play a crucial role in quantifying global carbon storage and detecting climate change in the form of aboveground biomass (AGB), which introduces an approach to study carbon cycle, ecology, and biodiversity. The monitoring and estimation of forest AGB are considered very important and of practical value. As we know, forest AGB relates with height, density and diameter at breast height, and how to relate the ecophysical parameters with remote sensing images is vital for forest AGB estimation. In this paper, we aim to explore structure parameters about forest density and height, extracted by tomographic SAR (TomoSAR) techniques, for further improving the precision of AGB estimation models. Firstly, vertical structure profiles are constructed via TomoSAR, and the structure features are extracted. Secondly, the correlation between these features and the in-situ forest maximum height, tree density, and average AGB in plot scale is analyzed. Thirdly, the 8-fold cross-validation and step-wise regression methods were utilized to construct the tropical forest AGB models. Finally, the results of these models have been presented and analyzed. Based on the analysis, it indicates that “Model 7” is the most effective model, and its performance at both plot and pixel scales indicates a high level of accuracy for predicting forest AGB. These findings suggest that the proposed method can be effectively applied to tropical forested areas and has good scalability.

Major carbon losses from degradation of Mauritia flexuosa peat swamp forests in western Amazonia

AbstractTropical peat swamp forests are major global carbon (C) stores highly vulnerable to human intervention. In Peruvian Amazonia, palm swamps, the prevalent peat ecosystem, have been severely degraded through recurrent cutting of Mauritia flexuosa palms for fruit harvesting. While this can transform these C sinks into significant sources, the magnitude of C fluxes in natural and disturbed conditions remains unknown. Here, we estimated emissions from degradation along a gradient comprising undegraded (Intact), moderately degraded (mDeg) and heavily degraded (hDeg) palm swamps. C stock changes above- and below-ground were calculated from biomass inventories and peat C budgets resulting from the balance of C outputs (heterotrophic soil respiration (Rh), dissolved C exports), C inputs (litterfall, root mortality) and soil CH4 emissions. Fluxes spatiotemporal dynamics were monitored (bi)monthly over 1–3 years. The peat budgets (Mg C ha−1 year−1) revealed that medium degradation reduced by 88% the soil sink capacity (from − 1.6 ± 1.3 to − 0.2 ± 0.8 at the Intact and mDeg sites) while high degradation turned the soil into a high source (6.2 ± 0.7 at the hDeg site). Differences stemmed from degradation-induced increased Rh (5.9 ± 0.3, 6.2 ± 0.3, and 9.0 ± 0.3 Mg C ha−1 year−1 at the Intact, mDeg, and hDeg sites) and decreased C inputs (8.3 ± 1.3, 7.1 ± 0.8, and 3.6 ± 0.7 Mg C ha−1 year−1 at the same sites). The large total loss rates (6.4 ± 3.8, 15.7 ± 3.8 Mg C ha−1 year−1 under medium and high degradation), originating predominantly from biomass changes call for sustainable management of these peatlands.

Microbial carbon use efficiency promotes global soil carbon storage

Soils store more carbon than other terrestrial ecosystems1,2. How soil organic carbon (SOC) forms and persists remains uncertain1,3, which makes it challenging to understand how it will respond to climatic change3,4. It has been suggested that soil microorganisms play an important role in SOC formation, preservation and loss5–7. Although microorganisms affect the accumulation and loss of soil organic matter through many pathways4,6,8–11, microbial carbon use efficiency (CUE) is an integrative metric that can capture the balance of these processes12,13. Although CUE has the potential to act as a predictor of variation in SOC storage, the role of CUE in SOC persistence remains unresolved7,14,15. Here we examine the relationship between CUE and the preservation of SOC, and interactions with climate, vegetation and edaphic properties, using a combination of global-scale datasets, a microbial-process explicit model, data assimilation, deep learning and meta-analysis. We find that CUE is at least four times as important as other evaluated factors, such as carbon input, decomposition or vertical transport, in determining SOC storage and its spatial variation across the globe. In addition, CUE shows a positive correlation with SOC content. Our findings point to microbial CUE as a major determinant of global SOC storage. Understanding the microbial processes underlying CUE and their environmental dependence may help the prediction of SOC feedback to a changing climate.

Prescribed Fire in UK Heather-Dominated Blanket Bog Peatlands: A Critical Review of “Carbon Storage and Sequestration by Habitat: A Review of the Evidence (Second Edition)” by Gregg et al., 2021

Peatlands are a vast global carbon store. Both climate change and management have shaped peatlands over millennia, sometimes negatively, sometimes positively. Across the globe, prescribed fire is an important and well-recognised vegetation management tool used to promote biodiversity, increase habitat heterogeneity and mitigate uncontrolled wildfires. However, in the UK, there is an ongoing debate about the efficacy and legitimacy of using prescribed fire as a vegetation management tool. The debate centres around the extent to which prescribed burning is associated with a decline in habitat status and ecological function, especially in relation to carbon storage within heather-dominated blanket bog peatlands. Robust reviews of the evidence base are thus required to disentangle this debate and inform land management policies that ensure the protection and enhancement of blanket bog ecological functioning. Here, we critically review “Carbon storage and sequestration by habitat: a review of the evidence (second edition)” by Gregg et al., 2021. We see the value in synthesising the evidence on this topic but question the methodological approach used by Gregg et al. Another concern is their misrepresentation of evidence relating to prescribed burning impacts on blanket bog ecosystems and carbon budgets. We highlight these issues by focusing on the relevant peatland sections within the review by Gregg et al. and conclude by making a series of recommendations to improve the review’s scientific robustness and, thereby, its value to academics, land managers and policymakers.

Optimal soil organic matter mapping using an ensemble model incorporating moderate resolution imaging spectroradiometer, portable X-ray fluorescence, and visible near-infrared data

Digital soil mapping of soil organic matter (SOM) is necessary because of its importance for carbon sequestration, soil health, and food security. However, large-scale digital soil mapping of SOM remains a challenge to improve accuracy and provide more local information. To address this knowledge gap, a strategy that incorporatesremoteandproximalsensingdataintoanensemblemodelforthe digital soil mapping is proposed. In this study, moderate resolution imaging spectroradiometer, portable X-ray fluorescence, and visible near-infrared spectroscopy data from 402 soil samples were used to map the SOM at a resolution of 90 m, model the SOM with random forest, cubist, and ensemble models, and evaluate its environmental factors in the northeastern and northern Chinese plains, a typical agricultural plain (approximately 66,000,000 ha). The digital maps of the SOM were derived along with their uncertainties. The results show that the visible near-infrared and portable X-ray fluorescence data play an important role in the SOM distribution. Inclusion of these data in the model, improved the R2p by 6.25–35.42 %, and reduced the root mean square error of the prediction by 0.30–1.54 g kg−1. The ensemble model, which included remote and proximal sensing variables, outperformed the results of previous studies with a root mean square error of 6.68 g kg−1 and provided more detailed information. Thus, this study confirmed the effectivenessoftheproposedstrategy. The SOM product obtained by this strategy was able to accurately control soil management, and the structural equation model showed that human activities exerted a direct influence on SOM comparable to the overall effect of natural factors on SOM. The contribution of straw mulching to human activities was great with path coefficient >0.50. This suggests that land management, especially straw mulching, should be improved in this area. In summary, this study proposed a novel strategy for accurately and efficiently obtaining SOM products for agricultural decision-making, terrestrial carbon cycling, and carbon stock estimation. Future advancements will focus on more accurate and detailed global SOM maps or carbon storage by integrating multiple models with remote sensing data and proximal sensing data from available soil spectral libraries.

Vegetated coastal ecosystems in the Southwestern Atlantic Ocean are an unexploited opportunity for climate change mitigation

Vegetated coastal ecosystems (mangroves, seagrasses, and saltmarshes, often called Blue Carbon ecosystems) store large carbon stocks. However, their regional carbon inventories, sequestration rates, and potential as natural climate change mitigation strategies are poorly constrained. Here, we systematically review organic carbon storage and accumulation rates in vegetated coastal ecosystems across the Central and Southwestern Atlantic, extending from Guyana (08.28°N) to Argentina (55.14°S). We estimate that 0.4 Pg organic carbon is stored in the region, which is approximately 2-5% of global carbon stores in coastal vegetated systems, and that they accumulate 0.5 to 3.9 Tg carbon annually. By ecosystem type, mangroves have the largest areal extent and contribute 70-80% of annual organic carbon accumulation, with Brazil hosting roughly 95% of mangrove stocks. Our findings suggest that organic carbon accumulation in the region is equivalent to 0.7 to 13% of global rates in vegetated coastal ecosystems, indicating the importance of conserving these ecosystems as a nature-based approach for mitigating and adapting to climate change.

Landscape fires disproportionally affect high conservation value temperate peatlands, meadows, and deciduous forests, but only under low moisture conditions

Landscape fires are a natural component of the Earth System. However, they are of growing global concern due to climate change exacerbating their multiple impacts on biodiversity, ecosystems, carbon storage, human health, economies, and wider society. Temperate regions are predicted to be at greatest risk of increasing fire activity due to climate change, where fires can seriously impact important ecosystems for biodiversity and carbon storage, such as peatlands and forests. There is insufficient literature on the background prevalence, distribution, and drivers of fires in these regions, especially within Europe, to assess and mitigate their risks. Using a global database of fire patches based on the MODIS FireCCI51 product, we address this knowledge gap by quantifying the current prevalence and size of fires in Polesia, a 150,000 km2 area comprising a mosaic of peatland, forest, and agricultural habitats in northern Ukraine and southern Belarus. Between 2001 and 2019, fires burned 31,062 km2 of land, and were most frequent in spring and autumn. Although most fires started in agricultural land, fires disproportionately affected natural and semi-natural land cover types, particularly in protected areas. Over one fifth of protected land burned. Coniferous forests were the most common land cover type in protected areas, but fires mostly occurred in meadows, open peatlands (especially fen and transition mires), and native deciduous forests. These land cover types were highly susceptible to fires under low soil moisture conditions, but the risk of fire was low under average or higher soil moisture conditions. Restoring and maintaining natural hydrological regimes could be an effective nature-based solution to increase the resilience of fire-vulnerable ecosystems and support global biodiversity and carbon storage commitments under the United Nations Framework Conventions on Climate Change and Convention on Biological Diversity.

Most root-derived carbon inputs do not contribute to long-term global soil carbon storage

Most root-derived carbon inputs do not contribute to long-term global soil carbon storage

Effects of litter placement, soil moisture and temperature on soil carbon dioxide emissions in a sandy grassland soil

AbstractSemiarid grasslands contribute significantly to global soil carbon (C) storage. Carbon loss from these systems via microbial decomposition is controlled by abiotic and biotic factors such as soil moisture and temperature and C input. Plant litter in these systems can be present above the soil surface or mixed with surface soil by trampling, especially in intensively grazed areas. A quantitative understanding of abiotic factors' interactive effect is critical for predicting soil C dynamics in response to grassland management and environmental conditions changes. Therefore, we conducted a 3‐month laboratory incubation experiment to quantify the impact of litter placement and soil moisture on soil carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions under three controlled temperatures. The treatments including three litter placements (no litter, litter on top and litter mixed with surface soil) and three soil moisture levels (23%, 37% and 50% water‐filled pore space [WFPS]) were incubated at three temperatures (10°C, 20°C and 30°C). Carbon dioxide fluxes were measured every 2 weeks. Soil CO2 fluxes were higher for all moisture and litter treatments initially and declined overtime at 20°C and 30°C. Mixing litter with soil increased the cumulative CO2 emissions by 24% and 19.5% at 20°C and 30°C, respectively, compared to no litter. Also, soil‐litter mixing compared with litter on top showed a 14.3% and 21.6% increase in cumulative CO2 emissions at temperatures of 20°C and 30°C, respectively. At all temperatures, 37% and 50% WFPS resulted in similar cumulative CO2 emissions. The results from this study indicate that rising temperatures from 10°C to 30°C accelerate the effect of soil litter mixing on increasing CO2 emissions compared to litter on top and no litter.

Louisiana Carbon Storage Projects Surging on Fatter Tax Breaks and Blue Fuel Visions

Louisiana’s energy companies are racing in a new direction chasing rich tax credits and hopes for blue fuels. An economy built on producing oil and gas and turning them into fuels and chemicals is now the leader, by far, in projects to capture and store carbon dioxide emitted by the massive petrochemical and refining facilities along the Mississippi River. Out of 28 applications for CO2 injection projects in the US, 15 are in Louisiana, said Steve Lee, director of the injection and mining division of the Louisiana Department of Natural Resources, during a recent presentation at the CO2 Conference in Midland, Texas. If all those permit requests lead to operating projects, they would increase the current number of sites globally by 50%, according to an annual survey by the Global Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS) Institute, which supports the growth of storage. The trigger for this uptick was the 2022 US Inflation Reduction Act that includes large increases in the tax credits—which can be paid in cash for up to 5 years to companies that reduce their emissions by capturing CO2 and then injecting it into subsurface storage. In Louisiana, the key number in the bill is the top rate paid for injecting CO2 into sites designed to store it permanently—$85 per metric ton for facilities that begin construction prior to 1 January 2033. For owners of chemical plants, this can go a long way toward paying the high cost of carbon-reducing projects required by investors and lenders, and it opens the door for them to get into the business of selling low-carbon blue fuels. Louisiana, with its vast supplies of CO2 that can be separated out at an affordable cost and vast stores of open pore space in the ground, is a test bed for this hydrocarbon-based energy transition. “Our geology is really good in Louisiana. Also, we have an extensive pipeline network and lots of CO2. Half of our CO2 is from industrial emissions, so it is good for capture,” Lee said. Connecting those resources to create a CO2 storage business also requires large numbers of skilled deal makers, engineers, lawyers, and politicians because what they are building is neither simple nor an easy sell. A recent deal, described in corporate releases, helps show the complexities and motivations required to capture, deliver, and store industrial CO2. It starts at the world’s biggest ammonia-producing facilities in Donaldson, Louisiana, owned by CF Industries. The company wants to rid itself of the title of the state’s largest CO2 emitter with a plan to invest $200 million in a unit that will pull CO2 out of its exhaust streams, remove the water, and compress the gas to its supercritical state for shipment.

CO2 Emissions in Layered Cranberry Soils under Simulated Warming

Sanding to bury the overgrowth of uprights and promote new growth results in alternate sand and organic sublayers in the 0–30 cm layer of cranberry soils contributing to global carbon storage. The aim of this study was to measure CO2 emission rates in cranberry soil sublayers under simulated warming. Soil samples (0–10, 10–20 and 20–30 cm) were incubated in jars for up to 105 days at 10, 20 and 30 °C. The CO2 emission rate was measured biweekly by gas chromatography. The CO2 emission rate increased with temperature and decreased in deeper soil sublayers. Linear regression relating CO2 efflux to soil sublayer and temperature returned R2 = 0.87. Sensitivity of organic matter decomposition to temperature was estimated as activation energy and as Q10 coefficient, the increase in reaction rate per 10 °C. Activation energy was 50 kJ mol−1, 59 kJ mol−1 and 71 kJ mol−1 in the in the 0–10, 10–20 and 20–30 cm sublayers, respectively, indicating higher molecular-weight compounds resisting to decomposition in deeper sublayers. The Q10 values were significantly higher (p < 0.01) in the 10–30 cm (2.79 ± 0.10) than the 0–10 cm (2.18 ± 0.07) sublayers. The 20–30 cm sublayer where less total carbon was stored was the most sensitive to higher temperature. Cranberry soils could be used as sensitive markers of global warming.

Global Warming and Atmospheric Carbon: Is Carbon Sequestration a Myth or Reality?

Abstract Biotic and abiotic carbon sequestration currently seems to be the only viable tools at the disposal of mankind for mitigating greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and thus a remedy for tackling global warming challenges. This study accesses the global carbon capture and storage (CCS) programme: the level of success in its implementation and its impact using panel data from eight countries, the majority of which have begun one or more operational CCS facilities. To achieve this objective, fifteen years period time series data was sourced for the eight selected countries based on data availability, namely the United States (US), the United Kingdom (UK), Canada, China, Australia, Norway, South Africa, and Nigeria; ranging from 1990 to 2015. The panel ARDL results show that the explanatory variables, global industrial production (LIP), Electricity production (LEP), Agricultural production (LAP), transportation (LTR), and energy supply (LES) have a long-run relationship with the dependent variable (LGHG emissions). While the short-run results show that none of the variables have a significant contribution to LGHG emissions. In the long-run results, LIP and LTR significantly contribute to the reduction of LGHG courtesy of the CCS programme while LEP, LAP, and LES contribute to a rise in the LGHG emission. The cross-sectional results show that all the variables have significant impacts on LGHG in all the sampled countries except Australia. Suggesting that, the CCS programme is viable for mitigating global warming and climate change and therefore should be considered by the various countries of the world.

Iron-bound organic carbon dynamics in peatland profiles: The preservation equivalence of deep and surface soil

More than half of the carbon pools in peatlands are stored in the soil layers below 30 cm, yet little is known about the carbon stabilizing factors at these depths. Although iron oxide minerals are considered to be important for stabilizing organic carbon (OC), their role in the preservation of OC in peatlands, especially in the deep layers, is poorly understood. Here, we collected 1 m soil profiles from six peatlands in Central and West China to quantitatively study the vertical distribution characteristics of iron-bound OC (Fe-bound OC), and the influencing physicochemical properties of the soil. The results showed that the content of reactive iron (FeR) was enriched in the top layer and decreased gradually with depth. While Fe-bound OC was positively correlated with FeR, its concentration did not decrease with depth in the peat profile. There were no obvious trends in the distributions of FeR and Fe-bound OC with water level fluctuations in the peat profile. In addition, the proportion of Fe-bound OC to soil organic carbon in the deep peat (31 to 100 cm) was equivalent to that in the surface peat (0 to 30 cm), indicating that iron oxide mineral provides comparable protection of OC in both layers. According to upper estimates of global peatland carbon storage (612 Pg), it could be predicted that 23.81 ± 11.75 Pg of OC is protected by association with FeR. These results indicated that iron oxide minerals are the effective "rusty sink" of OC sequestration in peatland, and a key factor for its long-term preservation. The results from this study make a valuable contribution to the carbon dynamics knowledgebase for peatlands, and provide a basis for improved predictive simulations.

Tree Diversity, Structure and Functional Trait Identity Promote Stand Biomass Along Elevational Gradients in Subtropical Forests of Southern China

AbstractSubtropical forests play an important role in regulating global carbon storage, a substantial portion of these forest carbon pools are stored in biomass stocks. Yet, we do not fully understand how tree diversity, stand structure and functional trait identity influence biomass stocks along elevational gradients. Here we used forest inventory data from nine 1‐ha plots across different elevational gradients in subtropical forests of southern China. We analyzed the effects of tree diversity, structure and functional trait identity on biomass along elevational gradients, and tested the complementarity effect, selection effect, mass‐ratio hypothesis and specie‐energy hypothesis. We found that multiple metrics of diversity and structural attributes significantly promoted biomass. Forest biomass was improved by traits with greater maximum height, larger seed mass (SM) and lower wood density (WD). Specifically, large‐diameter trees were the strongest independent predictor of biomass relative to other single variables. A significant increase in tree diversity, density and biomass was observed with increasing elevational gradients; additionally, trees dominated by traits related to greater maximum tree height, larger SM and lower WD also increased. Elevation indirectly increased biomass by increasing diversity and community‐weighted mean traits, but indirectly decreased it by reducing structural attributes. Our results support the complementarity effect, selection effect and mass‐ratio hypothesis simultaneously, but not the species‐energy hypothesis. The selection effect had greater effects on stand biomass than the complementarity effect and mass‐ratio hypothesis. Our findings suggest that developing natural tree diversity and structural complexity as well as dominant resource‐acquisitive species is beneficial to maintain and enhance carbon storage capacity in species‐rich subtropical forests along elevational gradients.

Termite sensitivity to temperature affects global wood decay rates.

Deadwood is a large global carbon store with its store size partially determined by biotic decay. Microbial wood decay rates are known to respond to changing temperature and precipitation. Termites are also important decomposers in the tropics but are less well studied. An understanding of their climate sensitivities is needed to estimate climate change effects on wood carbon pools. Using data from 133 sites spanning six continents, we found that termite wood discovery and consumption were highly sensitive to temperature (with decay increasing >6.8 times per 10°C increase in temperature)-even more so than microbes. Termite decay effects were greatest in tropical seasonal forests, tropical savannas, and subtropical deserts. With tropicalization (i.e., warming shifts to tropical climates), termite wood decay will likely increase as termites access more of Earth's surface.

Biomass Calculations of Individual Trees Based on Unmanned Aerial Vehicle Multispectral Imagery and Laser Scanning Combined with Terrestrial Laser Scanning in Complex Stands

Biomass is important in monitoring global carbon storage and the carbon cycle, which quickly and accurately estimates forest biomass. Precision forestry and forest modeling place high requirements on obtaining the individual parameters of various tree species in complex stands, and studies have included both the overall stand and individual trees. Most of the existing literature focuses on calculating the individual tree species’ biomass in a single stand, and there is little research on calculating the individual tree biomass in complex stands. This paper calculates the individual tree biomass of various tree species in complex stands by combining multispectral and light detection and ranging (LIDAR) data. The main research steps are as follows. First, tree species are classified through multispectral data combined with field investigations. Second, multispectral classification data are combined with LIDAR point cloud data to classify point cloud tree species. Finally, the divided point cloud tree species are used to compare the diameter at breast height (DBH) and height of each tree species to calculate the individual tree biomass and classify the overall stand and individual measurements. The results show that under suitable conditions, it is feasible to identify tree species through multispectral classification and calculate the individual tree biomass of each species in conjunction with point-cloud data. The overall accuracy of identifying tree species in multispectral classification is 52%. Comparing the DBH of the classified tree species after terrestrial laser scanning (TLS) and unmanned aerial vehicle laser scanning (UAV-LS) to give UAV-LS+TLS, the concordance correlation coefficient (CCC) is 0.87 and the root-mean-square error (RMSE) is 10.45. The CCC and RMSE are 0.92 and 1.41 compared with the tree height after UAV-LS and UAV-LS+TLS.

Biological influences on coastal muddy sediment structure following resuspension

AbstractShallow coastal muddy sediments are important for global nutrient cycling and carbon storage and provide a habitat for diverse communities of organisms. Bottom shear stress from physical disturbances such as storms and hurricanes resuspend coastal muds, disrupting their cohesive structure. How biological vs. physical processes affect reconsolidation of physically disturbed natural muds, however, is poorly understood. We compare the recovery of sediment properties related to compaction and cohesion of muds following physical disturbance. We hypothesized that recovery of cohesion would take longer than compaction and that changes in surface and subsurface cohesion would occur on different timescales. We collected muddy sediment cores and resuspended the top 5 cm in the lab to simulate storm disturbance. At several timepoints following resuspension (1–30 d), we measured sediment properties providing metrics of compaction (sediment height, porosity, grain size distribution, sound speed) and of surface and subsurface cohesion (erodibility, fracture behavior, exopolymeric substances [EPS]). Compaction and cohesion increased rapidly over the first 1–2 d after resuspension and continued to slowly increase for 2 weeks. Between 2 and 4 weeks, however, subsurface cohesion increased and turbidity decreased, consistent with sediment restabilization. In contrast, subsurface compaction decreased and eroded mass increased, suggesting destabilization. We attribute this apparent destabilization to delayed activity of small‐bodied infauna. Surprisingly, EPS concentration did not explain cohesion changes. These results highlight the importance of including biological parameters when predicting the recovery of sediment structure following a physical disturbance. This work has implications for understanding coastal sediment transport dynamics in frequently disturbed sediments.

Increased drought effects on the phenology of autumn leaf senescence

Global warming delays the autumn date of foliar senescence (DFS) in recent decades, with positive implications for growing season length and therefore global carbon storage. However, warming-associated drought, leading to water limitation, may conversely stimulate earlier DFS. Using ground observations since 1940s and 34 years of satellite greenness data (1982‒2015) over the Northern Hemisphere (>30° N), we show the increased impact of drought on DFS. Earlier DFS is linked to decreased precipitation under warming and weaker drought resistance associated with various plant functional traits. For example, isohydric plants with strict regulation of water status may drop leaves fast during droughts. We derive an improved set of phenology models based on this influence and project earlier DFS by the end of the century, particularly at high latitudes (>50° N). Our results limit uncertainties in the later end of plant growth with warming, aiding estimation of carbon uptake of terrestrial ecosystems. The authors use long-term ground and satellite data to reveal the impact of drought on autumn date of foliar senescence (DFS). They link increased drought impacts to precipitation changes and plant functional traits and project earlier DFS by the end of the century, particularly at high latitudes.

Evolution of Uncertainty in Terrestrial Carbon Storage in Earth System Models from CMIP5 to CMIP6

Abstract The spatial and temporal variations in terrestrial carbon storage play a pivotal role in regulating future climate change. However, Earth system models (ESMs), which have coupled the terrestrial biosphere and atmosphere, show great uncertainty in simulating the global land carbon storage. Here, based on multiple global datasets and a traceability analysis, we diagnosed the uncertainty source of terrestrial carbon storage in 22 ESMs that participated in phases 5 and 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5 and CMIP6). The modeled global terrestrial carbon storage has converged among ESMs from CMIP5 (1936.9 ± 739.3 PgC) to CMIP6 (1774.4 ± 439.0 PgC) but is persistently lower than the observation-based estimates (2285 ± 669 PgC). By further decomposing terrestrial carbon storage into net primary production (NPP) and ecosystem carbon residence time (τE), we found that the decreased intermodel spread in land carbon storage primarily resulted from more accurate simulations on NPP among ESMs from CMIP5 to CMIP6. The persistent underestimation of land carbon storage was caused by the biased τE. In CMIP5 and CMIP6, the modeled τE was far shorter than the observation-based estimates. The potential reasons for the biased τE could be the lack of or incomplete representation of nutrient limitation, vertical soil biogeochemistry, and the permafrost carbon cycle. Moreover, the modeled τE became the key driver for the intermodel spread in global land carbon storage in CMIP6. Overall, our study indicates that CMIP6 models have greatly improved the terrestrial carbon cycle, with a decreased model spread in global terrestrial carbon storage and less uncertain productivity. However, more efforts are needed to understand and reduce the persistent data–model disagreement on carbon storage and residence time in the terrestrial biosphere.

Dual role of CsrA in regulating the hemolytic activity of Escherichia coli O157:H7

ABSTRACT Post-transcriptional global carbon storage regulator A (CsrA) is a sequence-specific RNA-binding protein involved in the regulation of multiple bacterial processes. Hemolysin is an important virulence factor in the enterohemorrhagic Escherichia coli O157:H7 (EHEC). Here, we show that CsrA plays a dual role in the regulation of hemolysis in EHEC. CsrA significantly represses plasmid-borne enterohemolysin (EhxA)-mediated hemolysis and activates chromosome-borne hemolysin E (HlyE)-mediated hemolysis through different mechanisms. RNA structure prediction revealed a well-matched stem-loop structure with two potential CsrA binding sites located on the 5' untranslated region (UTR) of ehxB, which encodes a translocator required for EhxA secretion. CsrA inhibits EhxA secretion by directly binding to the RNA leader sequence of ehxB to repress its expression in two different ways: CsrA either binds to the Shine–Dalgarno sequence of ehxB to block ribosome access or to ehxB transcript to promote its mRNA decay. The predicted CsrA-binding site 1 of ehxB is essential for its regulation. There is a single potential CsrA-binding site at the 5'-end of the hlyE transcript, and its mutation completely abolishes CsrA-dependent activation. CsrA can also stabilize hlyE mRNA by directly binding to its 5' UTR. Overall, our results indicate that CsrA acts as a hemolysis modulator to regulate pathogenicity under certain conditions.