Global Burden Of Disease Estimates Research Articles

Cancer mortality attributable to air pollution in Slovakia

Abstract Introduction Air pollution is considered one of the most significant global environmental health risks. According to the Global Burden of Disease estimates, fine particulate matter, a key component of ambient air pollution, was the fifth leading risk factor for mortality worldwide in 2015, contributing to 4.2 million deaths (7.6% of total global deaths). In 2019, ambient air pollution was responsible for 4.5 million deaths. This rise is attributed to the growing levels of air pollution and the increasing incidence of NCDs associated with air pollution. Aim This contribution aims to clarify the possible association between environmental air pollution and cancer in Slovakia in the years 2015-2019 overall and by gender and age. Methodology This ecological study focuses on the population of Slovakia from 2015 to 2019. The data used are from the Global Burden of Disease study (IHME, 2019), the Statistical Office of the Slovak Republic and the Slovak Hydrometeorological Institute. Results In 2019, mortality from NCDs related to environmental pollution accounted for 6.6% of total mortality in Slovakia, which is lower than the global average of 8.3%. Cancer mortality attributable to ambient particulate matter pollution (APMP) was lower in 2019 (2.97 per 100,000, CI 95% 4.43-1.76) than in 2015. Higher cancer mortality rates attributable to APMP, were observed mainly in men (7.18 per 100,950, CI % 10.67-4.31 in 2015) and especially in the 80-84 age group (59.49 per 100,000; CI 95 % 94.60-32.20) in 2015 and in men aged 75-79 (510.76 per 510.76 per 100,000) in 2019. Conclusions While Slovakia has experienced a long-term decline in cancer mortality, bucking the global trend, challenges persist due to the country’s relatively poorer outcomes associated with environmental pollution. Addressing environmental pollution remains a critical aspect of ongoing efforts to enhance population health through targeted strategies and policies. Key messages • The significant impact of environmental pollution on cancer mortality underscores the urgent need for targeted interventions and policies to improve public health outcomes in Slovakia. • Cancer mortality attributable to air pollution differs by gender.

Effects of air pollution on global health: evidence from the global burden of disease study in the BRICS countries.

Considering the dynamic influence of environmental, social, economic, and political factors in the emergence and growth of the BRICS countries (Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa) over the years and pre-existing differences, the adverse effects of air pollution on the health and well-being of the people have remained major areas of academic inquiry and policy interventions. The present study examines the global trend of deaths and Disability Adjusted Life Years (DALYs) attributable to air pollution with particular reference to the BRICS countries for the period 1990 to 2019. This study has used the global burden of disease estimates by using different rounds of the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) study report published by the Institute of Health Metrics Evaluation. This study has calculated the cause of death and DALYs due to environmental risk factors (i.e. Air pollution). Data analysis has been done by using the standard formula for the calculation of death (mortality) rate and DALYs rate. Similarly, we calculated the age and gender-wise death and DALYs rate by using the appropriate numerator and denominator. The study discovered a significant shift in disease patterns over this period, as communicable diseases like respiratory infections and tuberculosis were replaced by non-communicable diseases such as ischemic heart disease (17.2 million), chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (14.59 million), and stroke (17.02 million) as the primary causes of air pollution-related deaths in 2019 at the global level. Additionally, the study identified a worrying increase in deaths linked to neonatal disorders and respiratory infections caused by ambient particulate matter pollution in South Africa, India, and Brazil. The impact of air pollution on public health is evident across different age groups and genders, with people aged 50-69 years, those aged 70 and above, and children under 5 years being more vulnerable. Furthermore, the male population is disproportionately affected by communicable and noncommunicable diseases caused by air pollution. The study highlights the need for policymakers to implement evidence-based interventions to tackle this global health problem. The interventions should aim to reduce the emerging crisis of non-communicable diseases related to air pollution, particularly among vulnerable age groups and the male population, ultimately improving public health outcomes.

Global Burden Disease Estimates for Major Depressive Disorders (MDD): Areview of diagnosticinstruments used in studies ofprevalence.

Global Burden of Disease (GBD) estimates have significant policy implications nationally and internationally. Disease burden metrics, particularly for depression, have played a critical role in raising governmental awareness of mental health and in calculating the economic cost of depression. Recently, the World Health Organization ranked depression as the single largest contributor to global disability. The main aim of this paper was to assess the basis upon which GBD prevalence estimates for major depressive disorder (MDD) were made. We identify the instruments used in the 2019 GBD estimates and provide a descriptive assessment of the five most frequently used instruments. The majority of country studies, 356/566 (62.9%), used general mental health screeners or structured/semi-structured interview guides, 98/566 (17.3%) of the studies used dedicated depression screeners, and 112 (19.8%) used other tools for assessing depression. Thus, most of the studies used instruments that were not designed to make a diagnosis of depression or assess depression severity. Our results are congruent with and extend previous research that has identified critical flaws in the data underpinning the GBD estimates for MDD. Despite the widespread promotion of these prevalence estimates, caution is needed before using them to inform public policy and mental health interventions. This is particularly important in lower-income countries where resources are scarce.

Discrepancies in dengue burden estimates: a comparative analysis of reported cases and global burden of disease study, 2010-2019.

Dengue is a significant mosquito-borne disease. Several studies have utilized estimates from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) study to assess the global, regional or national burden of dengue over time. However, our recent investigation suggests that GBD's estimates for dengue cases in Taiwan are unrealistically high. The current study extends the scope to compare reported dengue cases with GBD estimates across 30 high-burden countries and territories, aiming to assess the accuracy and interpretability of the GBD's dengue estimates. Data for this study were sourced from the GBD 2019 study and various national and international databases documenting reported dengue cases. The analysis targeted the top 30 countries and territories with the highest 10-year average of reported cases from 2010 to 2019. Discrepancies were quantified by computing absolute differences and ratios between the 10-year average of reported cases and GBD estimates. Coefficients of variation (CV) and estimated annual percentage changes (EAPCs) were calculated to assess variations and trends in the two data sources. Significant discrepancies were noted between reported data and GBD estimates in the number of dengue cases, incidence rates, and EAPCs. GBD estimates were substantially higher than reported cases for many entities, with the most notable differences found in China (570.0-fold), India (303.0-fold), Bangladesh (115.4-fold), Taiwan (85.5-fold) and Indonesia (23.2-fold). Furthermore, the GBD's estimates did not accurately reflect the extensive yearly fluctuations in dengue outbreaks, particularly in non-endemic regions such as Taiwan, China and Argentina, as evidenced by high CVs. This study reveals substantial discrepancies between GBD estimates and reported dengue cases, underscoring the imperative for comprehensive analysis in areas with pronounced disparities. The failure of GBD estimates to represent the considerable annual fluctuations in dengue outbreaks highlights the critical need for improvement in disease burden estimation methodologies for dengue.

Transforming Parkinson's Care in Africa (TraPCAf): protocol for a multimethodology National Institute for Health and Care Research Global Health Research Group project

BackgroundParkinson’s disease (PD) is the second most common neurodegenerative disorder and, according to the Global Burden of Disease estimates in 2015, was the fastest growing neurological disorder globally with respect to associated prevalence, disability, and deaths. Information regarding the awareness, diagnosis, phenotypic characteristics, epidemiology, prevalence, risk factors, treatment, economic impact and lived experiences of people with PD from the African perspective is relatively sparse in contrast to the developed world, and much remains to be learned from, and about, the continent.MethodsTransforming Parkinson’s Care in Africa (TraPCAf) is a multi-faceted, mixed-methods, multi-national research grant. The study design includes multiple sub-studies, combining observational (qualitative and quantitative) approaches for the epidemiological, clinical, risk factor and lived experience components, as appropriate, and interventional methods (clinical trial component). The aim of TraPCAf is to describe and gain a better understanding of the current situation of PD in Africa. The countries included in this National Institute for Health and Care Research (NIHR) Global Health Research Group (Egypt, Ethiopia, Ghana, Kenya, Nigeria, South Africa and Tanzania) represent diverse African geographies and genetic profiles, with differing resources, healthcare systems, health and social protection schemes, and policies. The research team is composed of experts in the field with vast experience in PD, jointly led by a UK-based and Africa-based investigator.DiscussionDespite the increasing prevalence of PD globally, robust data on the disease from Africa are lacking. Existing data point towards the poor awareness of PD and other neurological disorders on the continent and subsequent challenges with stigma, and limited access to affordable services and medication. This multi-site study will be the first of its kind in Africa. The data collected across the proposed sub-studies will provide novel and conclusive insights into the situation of PD. The selected country sites will allow for useful comparisons and make results relevant to other low- and middle-income countries. This grant is timely, as global recognition of PD and the public health challenge it poses builds. The work will contribute to broader initiatives, including the World Health Organization’s Intersectoral global action plan on epilepsy and other neurological disorders.Trial registrationhttps://doi.org/10.1186/ISRCTN77014546.

Estimation of non-health gross domestic product (NHGDP) loss due to COVID-19 deaths in West Bengal, India

ObjectivesThe state of West Bengal witnessed a significant surge of COVID-19 in all three waves. However, there is a gap in understanding the economic loss associated with COVID-19. This study...

Population Based Study and Global Estimates of Hearing Impairment in Schoolchildren

Hearing impairments in schoolchildren affects learning and communication. Reliable data on hearing loss prevalence in this group are necessary for planning the audiological care. Aim. To compare data from a population based study of the hearing loss prevalence in schoolchildren and estimates from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) study in the Republic of Yemen. Materials and methods. Data extraction was performed from the GBD database on the prevalence of bilateral hearing loss >20 dB among children aged 5–9 years in the Republic of Yemen. A two stage study of hearing loss prevalence among primary school students aged 6–9 years in Sana’a, Republic of Yemen, in a sample of 2200 children using screening audiometry at 20 dB at 0.5, 1, 2, and 4 kHz is school settings, followed by tonal threshold audiometry and tympanometry in a specialized clinic. Hearing loss was assessed as unilateral or bilateral when hearing thresholds were higher than 25 dB. Results. According to GBD estimates, bilateral hearing impairment in this population is 2.2%, including 1.4% of mild degree. According to the results of a Yemenian population study, mild and moderate hearing impairment was detected in 10.6%, of which 6.8% – unilateral, 3.8% – bilateral hearing loss. There were no cases of severe or profound hearing loss. The prevalence of otitis media with effusion was 6%, chronic suppurative otitis media – 1.8%, sensorineural hearing loss – 1.6%. Conclusion. Bilateral hearing impairments occur in 2.2–3.8% of primary school students, with unilateral impairments the prevalence is up to 10.6%. Of these, at least 65% have conductive hearing loss due to pathology of the middle ear. The data obtained will improve the efficiency of ear and hearing care for schoolchildren.

ALDH2 polymorphism, alcohol intake and the attributable burden of cancer in East Asia: systematic review, meta-analysis, and modeling study

To estimate the burden of alcohol-attributable cancer in East Asian populations accounting for aldehyde dehydrogenase-2 (ALDH2) genotype-specific cancer risk and alcohol exposure. We conducted a systematic review and meta-analysis of eight databases on cancer risk to derive alcohol dose-response curves by ALDH2 genotype. A simulation-based approach using the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) modeling framework was applied to estimate the population attributable fraction, incidence, and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) lost to alcohol-attributable cancer. We included 34 studies (66,655 participants) from China, Japan, and South Korea in the meta-analysis. Alcohol dose-response curves for liver, esophageal, and oral cavity/pharynx cancer showed an increased risk for people with the inactivated ALDH2 genetic polymorphism, resulting in a higher burden of alcohol-attributable cancer compared to GBD estimates. Our methods estimated annual incidence of cancer of 230,177 cases, an underestimate of 69,596 cases compared to GBD estimates. Similarly, total DALYs lost annually were underestimated by 1.20 million. The burden of liver, esophageal, and oral cavity/pharynx cancer attributable to alcohol is underestimated in populations with the ALDH2 genetic polymorphism when compared to current estimates.

THIRTY-YEAR TREND OF NON-RHEUMATIC VALVULAR HEART DISEASE: A COMPARISON OF PAKISTAN WITH SOUTH ASIA AND GLOBAL SCENARIO

Objectives: This study aimed to evaluate the burden and trends of non-rheumatic valvular heart disease (VHD) in Pakistan compared to the South Asian (SA) and Global figures based on estimates of the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) study for the years 1990 to 2019. Methodology: Data for the estimated prevalence, deaths, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), along with age-standardized death rate (ASDR) due to non-rheumatic VHD in Pakistan, was extracted from the GBD study. Results: The prevalence of non-rheumatic VHD in Pakistan increased by 14.1% from 1990 to 2019, from 6.4 to 7.3/100,000. The ASDR per 100,000 population has shown a 12.9% increase between the years 1990 and 2019 (from 1.32 to 1.49) with an IRR of 1.102 [1.002-1.1983]. However, global and SA's decreased slightly with an IRR of 0.997 [0.971-1.024] and 0.996 [0.959-1.034]. The estimated number of deaths has shown a 1.1% increase from 0.6 to 0.6/100,000 from 1990 to 2019. Similarly, the estimated number of DALYs has shown an increased (17%) from 14.1 in 1990 to 16.5/100,000 in 2019. Interestingly, Sindh, Baluchistan, and Azad Jammu & Kashmir also had seen the most significant increase in DALYs over 30 years, accounting for 30.3%, 23.7%, and 23.9% respectively. Conclusion: Based on the analysis of GBD estimates, it can be concluded that, in Pakistan, the prevalence, deaths, and DALYs rate of non-rheumatic VHD per 100 thousand individuals increased substantially between 1990 and 2019. The age-standardized death rate also significantly increased over the past 30 years.

Profile of low and middle-income countries with increases versus decreases in road crash fatality population rates and necessity of motorcycle safety

Introduction: Road crash fatalities have increased significantly in Low- and Middle- Income Countries (LMICs) between 2006 and 2016. This study presents how road safety characteristics have changed in LMICs by comparing data over time and relationships between the road crash fatality increase and a wide range of data from LMICs. Parametric and nonparametric methods are used to test significance. Method: There were 35 countries in the Latin America and Caribbean region, the Sub-Saharan Africa region, the East Asia and Pacific region, and the South Asia region, where the population rate of road crash fatalities consistently increased as per country reports, World Health Organization and Global Burden of Disease estimates. In these countries, the proportion of fatalities involving motorcycles (including powered two or three-wheelers) substantially increased (44%) over the same time (statistically significant). In these countries, the helmet-wearing rate was only 46% for all passengers. These patterns were not observed in LMICs with decreasing population fatality rates. Results: Motorcycle helmet usage rates strongly correlate with decreasing fatalities per 10,000 motorcycles in Low-Income Countries (LICs) and LMICs. Effective interventions (including increasing helmet usage) are urgently needed for motorcycle crash trauma in LMICs, especially where the economy and motorization rapidly grow. National strategies for motorcycle safety, conforming to the Safe System principles, are recommended. Conclusions: For evidence-based policy formulation, there is a need to continue strengthening data collection, sharing, and use.

Prevalence of hearing loss in schoolchildren: populational study and global estimates

Introduction. Hearing impairments in schoolchildren affects learning and communication. Reliable data on hearing loss prevalence in this group are necessary for planning the audiological care.Aim. To compare data from a population-based study of the hearing loss prevalence in schoolchildren and estimates from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) study in the Republic of Yemen.Materials and methods. Data extraction was performed from the GBD database on the prevalence of bilateral hearing loss >20 dB among children aged 5–9 years in the Republic of Yemen. A two-stage study of hearing loss prevalence among primary school students aged 6–9 years in Sana’a, Republic of Yemen, in a sample of 2200 children using screening audiometry at 20 dB at 0.5, 1, 2, and 4 kHz is school settings, followed by tonal threshold audiometry and tympanometry in a specialized clinic. Hearing loss was assessed as unilateral or bilateral when hearing thresholds were higher than 25 dB.Results. According to GBD estimates, bilateral hearing impairment in this population is 2.2%, including 1.4% of mild degree. According to the results of a Yemenian population study, mild and moderate hearing impairment was detected in 10.6%, of which 6.8% – unilateral, 3.8% – bilateral hearing loss. There were no cases of severe or profound hearing loss. The prevalence of otitis media with effusion was 6%, chronic suppurative otitis media – 1.8%, sensorineural hearing loss – 1.6%.Conclusion. Bilateral hearing impairments occur in 2.2–3.8% of primary school students, with unilateral impairments the prevalence is up to 10.6%. Of these, at least 65% have conductive hearing loss due to pathology of the middle ear. The data obtained will improve the efficiency of ear and hearing care for schoolchildren.

A National Equity Initiative to Address Noncommunicable Diseases and Injuries: Findings and Recommendation from the Nepal NCDI Poverty Commission

We aimed to assess the burden of NCDIs across socioeconomic groups, their economic impact, existing health service readiness and availability, current policy frameworks and national investment, and planned programmatic initiatives in Nepal through a comprehensive literature review. Secondary data from Global Burden of Disease estimates from GBD 2015 and National Living Standard Survey 2011 were used to estimate the burden of NCDI and present the relationship of NCDI burden with socioeconomic status.
 The Commission used these data to define priority NCDI conditions and recommend potential cost-effective, poverty-averting, and equity-promoting health system interventions. NCDIs disproportionately affect the health and well-being of poorer populations in Nepal and cause significant impoverishment.
 The Commission found a high diversity of NCDIs in Nepal, with approximately 60% of the morbidity and mortality caused by NCDIs without primary quantified behavioral or metabolic risk factors, and nearly half of all NCDI-related DALYs occurring in Nepalese younger than 40 years. The Commission prioritized an expanded set of twenty-five NCDI conditions and recommended introduction or scale-up of twenty-three evidence-based health sector interventions. Implementation of these interventions would avert an estimated 9680 premature deaths per annum by 2030 and would cost approximately $8.76 per capita. The Commission modelled potential financing mechanisms, including increased excise taxation on tobacco, alcohol, and sugar-sweetened beverages, which would provide significant revenue for NCDI-related expenditures. Overall, the Commission’s conclusions are expected to be a valuable contribution to equitable NCDI planning in Nepal and similar resource-constrained settings globally.

The prevalence of significant cognitive delay among 3- to 4-year-old children growing up in low- and middle-income countries: results from 126 nationally representative surveys undertaken in 73 countries.

We sought to (1) update estimates of the prevalence of significant cognitive delay (SCD) among nationally representative samples of young children overall, and in upper-middle, lower-middle and low-income countries; (2) investigate whether variation in prevalence between countries was systematically associated with national wealth and other country characteristics; (3) investigate the stability of prevalence estimates over time; (4) examine the correlation between SCD and 2019 Global Burden of Disease estimates on the prevalence of the impairment of developmental intellectual disability under 5years of age; and (5) investigate the extent to which risk of SCD within countries varies with child age and gender, maternal education and household wealth. Secondary analysis of data collected in 126 nationally representative Multiple Cluster Indicators Surveys (MICS) conducted under the supervision of UNICEF in 73 countries involving a total of 396596 3- to 4-year-old children. The overall prevalence of SCD was 9.7% (95% CI 8.6-10.9%). Between-country variation in prevalence was strongly related to national wealth, the Human Development Index, the Human Inequality-adjusted Development Index and the Multidimensional Poverty Index, but not income inequality. In the 46 countries in which more than one survey was available prevalence estimates were reasonably stable over time (r=0.80, P<0.001). There were strong independent associations between increased risk of cognitive delay and younger child age, lower levels of maternal education and lower levels of household wealth (but not male gender). There was only a weak association across countries between the estimated prevalence of SCD and Global Burden of Disease estimates of the under 5 prevalence of the impairment of developmental intellectual disability. UNICEF's MICS data are readily (and freely) available to researchers and provide a cost-effective opportunity for researchers who are concerned about better understanding the situation of young children growing up in the world's LMICs with a marked loss of developmental potential in areas of cognition and learning.

The burden of bacterial skin infection, scabies and atopic dermatitis among urban-living Indigenous children in high-income countries: a protocol for a systematic review

BackgroundBacterial skin infections and scabies disproportionately affect children in resource-poor countries as well as underprivileged children in high-income countries. Atopic dermatitis is a common childhood dermatosis that predisposes to bacterial skin infection. In Australia, at any one time, almost half of all Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander children living remotely will have impetigo, and up to one-third will also have scabies. Yet, there is a gap in knowledge of the skin infection burden for urban-living Australian Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander children, as well as atopic dermatitis which may be a contributing factor. The objective of this study is to provide a global background on the burden of these disorders in Indigenous urban-living children in high-income countries. These countries share a similar history of colonisation, dispossession and subsequent ongoing negative impacts on Indigenous people.MethodsThis protocol follows the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Review and Meta-Analyses Protocols statement. Observational studies reporting incidence and/or prevalence data on bacterial skin infection, scabies and/or atopic dermatitis in urban-living Indigenous children in high-income countries will be included. Literature searches will be conducted in several international electronic databases (from 1990 onwards), including MEDLINE, Embase, EmCare, Web of Science and PubMed. Reference lists and citation records of all included articles will be scanned for additional relevant manuscripts. Two investigators will independently perform eligibility assessment of titles, abstract and full-text manuscripts, following which both investigators will independently extract data. Where there is disagreement, the senior author will determine eligibility. The methodological quality of selected studies will be appraised using an appropriate tool. Data will be tabulated and narratively synthesised. We expect there will be insufficient data to perform meta-analysis.DiscussionThis study will identify and evaluate epidemiological data on bacterial skin infection, scabies and atopic dermatitis in urban-living Indigenous children in high-income countries. Where available, the clinical features, risk factors, comorbidities and complications of these common childhood skin disorders will be described. The evidence will highlight the burden of disease in this population, to contribute to global burden of disease estimates and identify gaps in the current literature to provide direction for future research.Systematic review registrationPROSPERO CRD42021277288

Eliciting national and subnational sets of disability weights in mainland China: Findings from the Chinese disability weight measurement study

SummaryBackgroundThe disability weight (DW) quantifies the severity of health states from disease sequela and is a pivotal parameter for disease burden calculation. We conducted a national and subnational DW measurement in China.MethodsIn 2020–2021, we conducted a web-based survey to assess DWs for 206 health states in 31 Chinese provinces targeting health workers via professional networks. We fielded questions of paired comparison (PC) and population health equivalence (PHE). The PC data were analysed by probit regression analysis, and the regression results were anchored by results from the PHE responses on the DW scale between 0 (no loss of health) and 1 (health loss equivalent to death).FindingsWe used PC responses from 468,541 respondents to estimate DWs of health states. Eight of 11 domains of health had significantly negative coefficients in the regression of the difference between Chinese and Global Burden of Disease (GBD) DWs, suggesting lower DW values for health states with mention of these domains in their lay description. We noted considerable heterogeneity within domains, however. After applying these Chinese DWs to the 2019 GBD estimates for China, total years lived with disability (YLDs) increased by 14·9% to 177 million despite lower estimates for musculoskeletal disorders, cardiovascular diseases, mental disorders, diabetes and chronic kidney disease. The lower estimates of YLDs for these conditions were more than offset by higher estimates of common, low-severity conditions.InterpretationThe differences between the GBD and Chinese DWs suggest that there might be some contextual factors influencing the valuation of health states. While the reduced estimates for mental disorders, alcohol use disorder, and dementia could hint at a culturally different valuation of these conditions in China, the much greater shifts in YLDs from low-severity conditions more likely reflects methodological difficulty to distinguish between health states that vary a little in absolute DW value but a lot in relative terms.FundingThis work was supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China [grant number 82173626], the National Key Research and Development Program of China [grant numbers 2018YFC1315302], Wuhan Medical Research Program of Joint Fund of Hubei Health Committee [grant number WJ2019H304], and Ningxia Natural Science Foundation Project [grant number 2020AAC03436].

Past and projected climate change impacts on heat-related child mortality in Africa

Children (<5 years) are highly vulnerable during hot weather due to their reduced ability to thermoregulate. There has been limited quantification of the burden of climate change on health in sub-Saharan Africa, in part due to a lack of evidence on the impacts of weather extremes on mortality and morbidity. Using a linear threshold model of the relationship between daily temperature and child mortality, we estimated the impact of climate change on annual heat-related child deaths for the current (1995–2020) and future time periods (2020–2050). By 2009, heat-related child mortality was double what it would have been without climate change; this outweighed reductions in heat mortality from improvements associated with development. We estimated future burdens of child mortality for three emission scenarios (SSP119, SSP245 and SSP585), and a single scenario of population growth. Under the high emission scenario (SSP585), including changes to population and mortality rates, heat-related child mortality is projected to double by 2049 compared to 2005–2014. If 2050 temperature increases were kept within the Paris target of 1.5 °C (SSP119 scenario), approximately 4000–6000 child deaths per year could be avoided in Africa. The estimates of future heat-related mortality include the assumption of the significant population growth projected for Africa, and declines in child mortality consistent with Global Burden of Disease estimates of health improvement. Our findings support the need for urgent mitigation and adaptation measures that are focussed on the health of children.

Validation of the Decision model of the Burden of Hearing loss Across the Lifespan (DeciBHAL) in Chile, India, and Nigeria.

SummaryBackgroundThere is no published decision model for informing hearing health care resource allocation across the lifespan in low- and middle-income countries. We sought to validate the Decision model of the Burden of Hearing loss Across the Lifespan International (DeciBHAL-I) in Chile, India, and Nigeria.MethodsDeciBHAL-I simulates bilateral sensorineural hearing loss (SNHL) and conductive hearing loss (CHL) acquisition, SNHL progression, and hearing loss treatment. To inform model inputs, we identified setting-specific estimates including SNHL prevalence from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) studies, acute otitis media (AOM) incidence and prevalence of otitis-media related CHL from a systematic review, and setting-specific pediatric and adult hearing aid use prevalence. We considered a coefficient of variance root mean square error (CV-RMSE) of ≤15% to indicate good model fit.FindingsThe model-estimated prevalence of bilateral SNHL closely matched GBD estimates, (CV-RMSEs: 3.2-7.4%). Age-specific AOM incidences from DeciBHAL-I also achieved good fit (CV-RMSEs=5.0-7.5%). Model-projected chronic suppurative otitis media prevalence (1.5% in Chile, 4.9% in India, and 3.4% in Nigeria) was consistent with setting-specific estimates, and the incidence of otitis media-related CHL was calibrated to attain adequate model fit. DeciBHAL-projected adult hearing aid use in Chile (3.2-19.7% ages 65-85 years) was within the 95% confidence intervals of published estimates. Adult hearing aid prevalence from the model in India was 1.4-2.3%, and 1.1-1.3% in Nigeria, consistent with literature-based and expert estimates.InterpretationDeciBHAL-I reasonably simulates hearing loss natural history, detection, and treatment in Chile, India, and Nigeria. Future cost-effectiveness analyses might use DeciBHAL-I to inform global hearing health policy.FundingNational Institutes of Health (3UL1-TR002553-03S3 and F30 DC019846).

Estimating the global demand curve for a leishmaniasis vaccine: A generalisable approach based on global burden of disease estimates.

A pressing need exists to develop vaccines for neglected diseases, including leishmaniasis. However, the development of new vaccines is dependent on their value to two key players-vaccine developers and manufacturers who need to have confidence in the global demand in order to commit to research and production; and governments (or other international funders) who need to signal demand based on the potential public health benefits of the vaccine in their local context, as well as its affordability. A detailed global epidemiological analysis is rarely available before a vaccine enters a market due to lack of resources as well as insufficient global data necessary for such an analysis. Our study seeks to bridge this information gap by providing a generalisable approach to estimating the commercial and public health value of a vaccine in development relying primarily on publicly available Global Burden of Disease (GBD) data. This simplified approach is easily replicable and can be used to guide discussions and investments into vaccines and other health technologies where evidence constraints exist. The approach is demonstrated through the estimation of the demand curve for a future leishmaniasis vaccine. We project the ability to pay over the period 2030-2040 for a vaccine preventing cutaneous and visceral leishmaniasis (CL / VL), using an illustrative set of countries which account for most of the global disease burden. First, based on previous work on vaccine demand projections in these countries and CL / VL GBD-reported incidence rates, we project the potential long-term impact of the vaccine on disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) averted as a result of reduced incidence. Then, we apply an economic framework to our estimates to determine vaccine affordability based on the abilities to pay of governments and global funders, leading to estimates of the demand and market size. Based on our estimates, the maximum ability-to-pay of a leishmaniasis vaccine (per course, including delivery costs), given the current estimates of incidence and population at risk, is higher than $5 for 25-30% of the countries considered, with the average value-based maximum price, weighted by quantity demanded, being $5.7-6 [$0.3 - $34.5], and total demand of over 560 million courses. Our results demonstrate that both the quantity of vaccines estimated to be required by the countries considered as well as their ability-to-pay could make a vaccine for leishmaniasis commercially attractive to potential manufacturers. The methodology used can be equally applied to other technology developments targeting health in developing countries.

TB morbidity estimates overlook the contribution of post-TB disability: evidence from urban Malawi

IntroductionDespite growing evidence of the long-term impact of tuberculosis (TB) on quality of life, Global Burden of Disease (GBD) estimates of TB-related disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) do not include post-TB...

Estimates of road traffic deaths in Tanzania

IntroductionThere is considerable uncertainty in estimates of traffic deaths in many sub-Saharan African countries, with the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) and the Global Status Report on Road Safety (GSRRS)...