Global Budget Research Articles

Historical sensible-heat-flux variations key to predicting future hydrologic sensitivity

Under anthropogenic climate change (CC), the global hydrological cycle intensifies at a rate known as hydrologic sensitivity (HS). Global climate models (GCMs) exhibit substantial uncertainty in HS. Past work suggests that another form of HS, derived from internal climate variability (IV), is useful for constraining this uncertainty. However, these two forms of HS are weakly related. Here we show that decomposing HS under both CC and IV, based on the global energy budget, provides insight into the likely range of future HS. We find that sensible heat exchange between the atmosphere and ocean is not accounted for in the atmospheric energy budget under IV, masking the connection between HS under IV and CC. Removing this term, a closer relationship emerges. We use observations in conjunction with this relationship to suggest an upward shift in the likely range of future HS (66% confidence interval: 2.00–2.36 W m−2 K−1).

Pathway to zero emissions in global tourism: opportunities, challenges, and implications

Human emissions must reach zero by 2050 to avoid dangerous climate change. Most sectors have achieved a downward path for their greenhouse gas emissions, but tourism’s emissions have continued to grow. We explore scenarios to reduce global tourism emissions and find only a narrow pathway to zero emissions tourism that could lead to net zero by 2050 while not severely damaging the tourism economy. Our study uses a system dynamics model. We describe the business-as-usual scenario, including its consequences for emissions and for tourism’s share of the remaining global carbon budgets if the world is to limit global temperature rise to 1.5 or 2 °C. We explore 45 possible policy approaches, like taxes and subsidies, infrastructure investments, off-sets, technology, behavioural changes, and sustainable aviation fuels. Key measures appear to be a mandate for e-fuel mixing up to 100% by 2050, and a multi-trillion USD investment in hydrogen-powered electric aircraft and high-speed rail infrastructure. We find that a limited renewable energy supply will constrain the growth of aviation if it is to be zero emissions in 2050. A risk-analysis explores the robustness of the policies. Finally, we discuss the consequences of the zero emissions tourism (ZET) scenario we propose.

Impacts of vegetation greening and climate change on trend and interannual variability in vegetation productivity in the Wuyi Mountain region

ABSTRACT The Gross Primary Productivity (GPP) is an important component in regional and global carbon budgets. Southeastern China has experienced vegetation greening and climate change. Yet, it remains unclear how these changes have impacted GPP in this region. As one of six special national parks in China with complex topography, high biodiversity, and little destructive human activities to the ecosystems, the Wuyi Mountain region is selected to study these impacts. In this study, we use a hydroecological model (BEPS-TerrainLab V2.0) to simulate the spatial and temporal variations of GPP in the Wuyi Mountain region over 2001–2018. We quantitatively separate the effects of vegetation greening and climate change on the trend and interannual variation in GPP through sensitivity experiments. The results show a significant increasing trend in Leaf Area Index (LAI) in the region over 2001–2018 (0.06 m2 m−2 yr−1, p < 0.01). For climate, a significant warming trend (0.03°C yr−1, p = 0.06) and an insignificant wetting trend are found, companied with large interannual variations. The sensitivity experiments suggest that the combined effect of vegetation greening and climate change makes the annual GPP increase significantly over 2001–2018 (14.41 g C m−2 yr−2, p < 0.01). Vegetation greening plays a dominant role in the GPP increasing trend with a positive contribution of 15.76 g C m−2 yr−2. Climate change only makes an insignificant negative contribution (−0.43 g C m−2 yr−2), mainly due to warming. However, the climate modulates the interannual variation of GPP dominantly, with temperature being the most influential climate factor. Our results underscore the critical impact of vegetation greening on the GPP trend and the impact of climate on the GPP interannual variation in this subtropical forest region over east coast of China.

Possible shift in controls of the tropical Pacific surface warming pattern.

Changes in the sea surface temperature (SST) pattern in the tropical Pacific modulate radiative feedbacks to greenhouse gas forcing, the pace of global warming and regional climate impacts. Therefore, elucidating the drivers of the pattern is critically important for reducing uncertainties in future projections. However, the causes of observed changes over recent decades, an enhancement of the zonal SST contrast coupled with a strengthening of the Walker circulation, are still debated. Here we focus on the role of external forcing and review existing mechanisms of the forced response categorized as either an energy perspective that adopts global and hemispheric energy budget constraints or a dynamical perspective that examines the atmosphere-ocean coupled processes. We then discuss their collective andrelative contributions to the past and future SST pattern changes and propose a narrative that reconciles them. Although definitive evidence is not yet available, our assessment suggests that the zonal SST contrast has been dominated by strengthening mechanisms in the past, but will shift towards being dominated byweakening mechanisms in the future. Finally, we present opportunities to resolve the model-observations discrepancy regarding the recent trends.

Global Distribution of Mercury in Foliage Predicted by Machine Learning.

Foliar assimilation of elemental mercury (Hg0) from the atmosphere plays a critical role in the global Hg biogeochemical cycle, leading to atmospheric Hg removal and soil Hg insertion. Recent studies have estimated global foliar Hg assimilation; however, large uncertainties remained due to coarse accounting of observed foliar Hg concentrations, posing a substantial challenge in constraining the global Hg budget. Here, we integrated a comprehensive observation database of foliar Hg concentrations and machine learning algorithms to predict the first spatial distribution of foliar Hg concentrations on a global scale, contributing to the first estimate of global Hg pools in foliage. The global average of foliar Hg concentrations was estimated to be 24.0 ng g-1 (7.5-56.5 ng g-1), and the global total in foliar Hg pools reached 4561.3 Mg (1455.2-9062.8 Mg). The spatial distribution showed the hotspots in tropical regions, including the Amazon, Central Africa, and Southeast Asia. A range of 2268.5-2727.0 Mg yr-1 was estimated for annual foliar Hg assimilation accounting for the perennial continuous assimilation by evergreen vegetation foliage. The first spatial maps of foliar Hg concentrations and Hg pools may aid in understanding the global biogeochemical cycling of Hg, especially in the context of climate change and global vegetation greening.

Carbon stock quantification in a floodplain restoration chronosequence along a Mediterranean-montane riparian corridor

Uncertainty in the global carbon (C) budget has been reduced for most stocks, though it remains incomplete by not considering aquatic and transitional zone carbon stocks. A key issue preventing such complete accounting is a lack of available C data within these aquatic and aquatic-terrestrial transitional ecosystems. Concurrently, quantifiable results produced by restoration practices that explicitly target C stock accumulation and sequestration remain inconsistent or undocumented. To support a more complete carbon budget and identify impacts on C stock accumulation from restoration treatment actions, we investigated C stock values in a Mediterranean-montane riparian floodplain system in California, USA. We quantified the C stock in aboveground biomass, large wood, and litter in addition to the C and total nitrogen in the upper soil profile (5 cm) across 23 unique restoration treatments and remnant old-growth forests. Treatments span 40 years of restoration actions along seven river kilometers of the Cosumnes River, and include process-based (limited intervention), assisted (horticultural planting and other intensive restoration activities), hybrid (a combination of process and assisted actions), and remnant (old-growth forests that were not created with restoration actions) sites. Total C values measured up to 1100 Mg ha−1 and averaged 129 Mg ha−1 with biomass contributing the most to individual plot measurements. From 2012 to 2020, biomass C stock measurements showed an average 32 Mg ha−1 increase across all treatments, though treatment specific values varied. While remnant forest plots held the highest average C values across all stocks (336 Mg ha−1), C values of different stocks varied across treatment type. Process-based restoration treatments held more average biomass C (120 Mg ha−1) than hybrid (23 Mg ha−1) or assisted restoration treatments (50 Mg ha−1), while assisted restoration treatments held more average total C in soil and litter (58 Mg ha−1) than hybrid (35 Mg ha−1) and process-based restoration treatments (37 Mg ha−1). Regardless of treatment type, time was a significant factor for all C stock values. These findings support a more inclusive global carbon budget and provide valuable insight into restoration treatment actions that support C stock accumulation.

Experimental and modeling investigations on CH4 hydrate phase equilibria in multi-ion “Haima” cold seep environment

CH4 hydrate formation represents a primary pathway for CH4 transformation within the deep-sea CH4 seepage environment, holding utmost significance for global carbon budget and marine hydrate resources distribution. As a typical active CH4 seeping, however, the influence characteristics of various ions in in-situ “Haima” cold seep on CH4 hydrate stability remains unclear. In this study, founded on the multiple ion components from the seawater of the “Haima” cold seep, the effects of salt ion categories and concentrations on CH4 hydrate phase equilibrium were investigated, and a thermodynamic model suitable for high-salinity deep-sea environment was proposed. Results indicated that, in higher concentration salt solutions (>3.45 wt%), hydrate stability was no longer solely governed by salinity, and significant differences among ion types were observed. The inhibitory strength of the ions on CH4 hydrate stability followed the order of Mg2+>Na+>Ca2+>Mn2+≈K+>Sr2+>Ba2+. The predicted CH4 hydrate phase equilibrium conditions from the proposed model exhibited strong agreement with both experimental results and data reported in the literature. The average absolute deviation of pressure (AADP) from the model prediction was 2.7% and 4.3% compared to the experimental and published literature data, respectively, which outperformed those of the CSMHYD model, Chen-Guo model and Hu-Lee-Sum correlation (4.7%–6.2%). In light of the marine temperature gradient and prediction results, it is estimated that CH4 hydrate could maintain stably below 600 m depth of the seawater in the cold seep area.

Instrument Overview and Radiometric Calibration Methodology of the Non-Scanning Radiometer for the Integrated Earth–Moon Radiation Observation System (IEMROS)

The non-scanning radiometer with short-wavelength (SW: 0.2–5.0 μm) and total-wavelength (TW: 0.2–50.0 μm) channels is the primary payload of the Integrated Earth–Moon Radiation Observation System (IEMROS), which is designed to provide comprehensive Earth radiation measurements and lunar calibrations at the L1 Lagrange point of the Earth–Moon system from a global perspective. This manuscript introduces a radiometer preflight calibration methodology, which involves background removal and is validated using accurate and traceable reference sources. Simulated Earth view tests are performed to evaluate repeatability, linearity, and gain coefficients over the operating range. Both channels demonstrate repeatability uncertainties better than 0.34%, indicating consistent and reliable measuring performance. Comparative polynomial regression analysis confirms significant linear response characteristics with two-channel nonlinearity less than 0.20%. Gain coefficients are efficiently determined using a two-point calibration approach. Uncertainty analysis reveals an absolute radiometric calibration accuracy of 0.97% for the SW channel and 0.92% for the TW channel, underscoring the non-scanning radiometer’s capability to provide dependable global Earth radiation budget data crucial to environmental and climate studies.

Reflecting on the Science of Climate Tipping Points to Inform and Assist Policy Making and Address the Risks they Pose to Society

AbstractThere is a diverging perception of climate tipping points, abrupt changes and surprises in the scientific community and the public. While such dynamics have been observed in the past, e.g., frequent reductions of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation during the last ice age, or ice sheet collapses, tipping points might also be a possibility in an anthropogenically perturbed climate. In this context, high impact—low likelihood events, both in the physical realm as well as in ecosystems, will be potentially dangerous. Here we argue that a formalized assessment of the state of science is needed in order to establish a consensus on this issue and to reconcile diverging views. This has been the approach taken by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Since 1990, the IPCC has consistently generated robust consensus on several complex issues, ranging from the detection and attribution of climate change, the global carbon budget and climate sensitivity, to the projection of extreme events and their impact. Here, we suggest that a scientific assessment on tipping points, conducted collaboratively by the IPCC and the Intergovernmental Science-Policy Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services, would represent an ambitious yet necessary goal to be accomplished within the next decade.

The settlement mechanism of diagnosis-intervention packet payment scheme in China：A policy review and lessons learned

The settlement of the medical insurance fund is the key point of the implementation of the big data diagnosis & intervention packet (DIP) under the regional global budget. This study proposed the framework with key methods for the settlement of DIP on medical insurance funds through on-site survey and policy literature analysis. The results show that the settlement framework, featuring “Fund pre-allocation”, “Monthly pre-settlement” and “Annual settlement”, integrates ideas of both the pre-payment system and post-payment system. “Monthly pre-settlement” being the key part of the settlement process, plays an important role in breaking down the year-end pressure of medical insurance management organizations and healthcare institutions, and guiding providers' reasonable behaviors. “Annual settlement” acts as the core link of settlement, which determines the annual medical insurance fund payment amount of healthcare institutions, which needs to rely on and integrate key elements such as regional global budget, DIP grouping database and correction, and healthcare institution supervision and assessment. The settlement process, measurement methods, and key parameters must be clarified by introducing settlement and related supporting policies, which provide technical support and institutional guarantees for the implementation and effectiveness of the DIP reform.

Revisiting the Global Methane Cycle Through Expert Opinion

AbstractAn accurate quantification of global methane sources and sinks is imperative for assessing realistic pathways to mitigate climate change. A key challenge of quantifying the Global Methane Budget (Saunois et al., 2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd‐12‐1561‐2020) is the lack of consistency in uncertainties between sectors. Here we provide a new perspective on bottom‐up (BU) and top‐down (TD) methane uncertainties by using an expert opinion analysis based on a questionnaire conducted in 2021. Expectedly, experts rank highest uncertainty and lowest confidence levels in the Global Methane Budget related to natural sources in BU budgets. Here, we further reveal specific uncertainty types and introduce a ranking system for uncertainties in each sector. We find that natural source uncertainty is related particularly to driver data uncertainty in freshwater, vegetation, and coastal/ocean sources, as well as parameter uncertainty in wetland models. Reducing uncertainties, most notably in aquatic and wetland sources will help balance future BU and TD global methane budgets. We suggest a new methane source partitioning over gradients of human disturbance and demonstrate that 76.3% (75.8%–79.4%) or 561 (443–700) Tg CH4 yr−1 of global emissions can be attributed to moderately impacted, man‐made, artificial, or fully anthropogenic sources and 23.7% (20.6%–24.2%) or 174 (115–223) Tg CH4 yr−1 to natural and low impacted methane sources. Finally, we identify current research gaps and provide a plan of action to reduce current uncertainties in the Global Methane Budget.

The challenge of estimating global termite methane emissions.

Methane is a powerful greenhouse gas, more potent than carbon dioxide, and emitted from a variety of natural sources including wetlands, permafrost, mammalian guts and termites. As increases in global temperatures continue to break records, quantifying the magnitudes of key methane sources has never been more pertinent. Over the last 40 years, the contribution of termites to the global methane budget has been subject to much debate. The most recent estimates of termite emissions range between 9 and 15 Tg CH4 year-1, approximately 4% of emissions from natural sources (excluding wetlands). However, we argue that the current approach for estimating termite contributions to the global methane budget is flawed. Key parameters, namely termite methane emissions from soil, deadwood, living tree stems, epigeal mounds and arboreal nests, are largely ignored in global estimates. This omission occurs because data are lacking and research objectives, crucially, neglect variation in termite ecology. Furthermore, inconsistencies in data collection methods prohibit the pooling of data required to compute global estimates. Here, we summarise the advances made over the last 40 years and illustrate how different aspects of termite ecology can influence the termite contribution to global methane emissions. Additionally, we highlight technological advances that may help researchers investigate termite methane emissions on a larger scale. Finally, we consider dynamic feedback mechanisms of climate warming and land-use change on termite methane emissions. We conclude that ultimately the global contribution of termites to atmospheric methane remains unknown and thus present an alternative framework for estimating their emissions. To significantly improve estimates, we outline outstanding questions to guide future research efforts.

Extreme wildfires in Canada and their contribution to global loss in tree cover and carbon emissions in 2023.

Canadian wildfires in 2023 were record breaking with wide-reaching impacts on people, nature, and climate. Extreme heat and low rainfall associated with climate change led to unprecedented forest fires that released enormous amounts of carbon as they burned. This study used data on fire-driven tree cover loss and forest carbon fluxes to estimate the total extent of stand-replacing forest fires and their associated carbon emissions. We found that the 2023 Canadian wildfires burned nearly 7.8 million hectares of forest and accounted for more than a quarter of all tree cover loss globally. Furthermore, forests impacted by wildfires emitted nearly 3 billion tons of CO2 or about 25% more carbon than all primary tropical tree cover loss that year. These results have important implications for global carbon budgets because emissions from these wildfires will largely be excluded from official greenhouse gas reporting.

Combined assimilation of NOAA surface and MIPAS satellite observations to constrain the global budget of carbonyl sulfide

Abstract. Carbonyl sulfide (COS), a trace gas in our atmosphere that leads to the formation of aerosols in the stratosphere, is largely taken up by terrestrial ecosystems. Quantifying the biosphere uptake of COS could provide a useful quantity to estimate gross primary productivity (GPP). Some COS sources and sinks still contain large uncertainties, and several top-down estimates of the COS budget point to an underestimation of sources, especially in the tropics. We extended the inverse model TM5-4DVAR to assimilate Michelson Interferometer for Passive Atmospheric Sounding (MIPAS) satellite data, in addition to National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) surface data as used in a previous study. To resolve possible discrepancies among the two observational data sets, a bias correction scheme is necessary and implemented. A set of inversions is presented that explores the influence of the different measurement streams and the settings of the prior fluxes. To evaluate the performance of the inverse system, the HIAPER Pole-to-Pole Observations (HIPPO) aircraft observations and NOAA airborne profiles are used. All inversions reduce the COS biosphere uptake from a prior value of 1053 GgS a−1 to much smaller values, depending on the inversion settings. These large adjustments of the biosphere uptake often turn parts of Amazonia into a COS source. Only inversions that exclusively use MIPAS observations, or strongly reduce the prior errors on the biosphere flux, maintain the Amazon as a COS sink. Inclusion of MIPAS data in the inversion leads to a better separation of land and ocean fluxes. Over the Amazon, these inversions reduce the biosphere uptake from roughly 300 to 100 GgS a−1, indicating a strongly overestimated prior uptake in this region. Although a recent study also reported reduced COS uptake over the Amazon, we emphasise that a careful construction of prior fluxes and their associated errors remains important. For instance, an inversion that gives large freedom to adjust the anthropogenic and ocean fluxes of CS2, an important COS precursor, also closes the budget satisfactorily with much smaller adjustments to the biosphere. We achieved better characterisation of biosphere prior and uncertainty, better characterisation of combined ocean and land fluxes, and better constraint of both by combining surface and satellite observations. We recommend more COS observations to characterise biosphere and ocean fluxes, especially over the data-poor tropics.

Human-caused increases in organic carbon burial in plateau lakes: The response to warming effect

The patterns of organic carbon sequestration in lakes, along with their temporal dynamics, have profound implications for assessing the strength of terrestrial carbon sinks and the global carbon budget. The complexity of fluctuations in organic carbon burial in freshwater lake basins, along with the intricate interactions among various controlling factors over time, remains challenging to comprehend. By utilizing data on the organic carbon burial of sedimentary cores from twelve plateau lakes in a gradient of urbanization, this study employed a rigorous methodology to quantify the factors and origins that contribute to lacustrine carbon sequestration. The findings indicate that the rate of Total Organic Carbon (TOC) accumulation in lakes in highly urbanized areas has significantly surpassed that in areas with minimal urbanization since 1985. This trend of divergence has persisted for more than four decades. During the period from 1958 to 2008, soil nutrient characteristics (29.576 %) and human impact (16.684 %) were the major factors regulating the organic carbon burial in plateau lakes. Human pressures indirectly impact carbon sequestration through earth-surface processes in the lake basin, causing carbon burial to lag behind environmental indicators (e.g., δ13C and C/N) by approximately 5 years. Meanwhile, the carbon sequestration efficiency of plateau lakes shows a positive feedback to climatic warming with intensified urbanization, primarily regulated through the impacts on lake basin environments. The results will further enhance our understanding of the response of the lake ecosystem carbon cycle to anthropogenic influences.

Dynamic near-seafloor sediment transport in Kaikōura Canyon following a large canyon-flushing event

ABSTRACT Submarine canyons are important deep-sea environments and conduits for transferring and accumulating sediment and organic matter and pollutants. Recent advances in observing, sampling, and analyzing modern canyon sediment transport systems illustrate near-seafloor dynamics and highlight the potential roles of submarine canyons in transporting and storing organic carbon, nutrients, and contaminants in the deep sea, with implications for deep-sea ecosystems and global carbon budgets. Kaikōura Canyon, offshore northeastern Te Waipounamu South Island, Aotearoa New Zealand, is a benthic biomass hotspot that experienced an earthquake-triggered, canyon-flushing event in 2016. On return to the canyon in October 2020, benthic landers, with sediment traps at 2 m above the seafloor, were deployed along the canyon axis in ∼ 900–1500 m water depths for a period of three weeks. These instrumented platforms provide a detailed view of near-seafloor sediment and organic-carbon transport between canyon-flushing events, showing that the canyon environment hosts dynamic physical processes and short-term sediment fluxes and transport. Variations in sediment and organic carbon flux down-canyon and over time include small-scale sediment transport events, some of which are interpreted as turbidity currents, occurring on much shorter timescales than earthquake recurrence. We compare Kaikōura Canyon results with other longshore-fed, shelf-incised global submarine canyons and deep-ocean sites, revealing differences and likely multiple controlling factors for near-seafloor sediment flux. This Kaikōura Canyon high-resolution, benthic lander timeseries dataset highlights the complexity of submarine canyons and their role in organic carbon flux to the deep ocean, even under high present-day sea-level conditions. Evolving insights underscore the need for more observational data and samples to further quantify submarine canyon sediment and organic-carbon transport and contribute to global evaluations of deep-sea canyon distributary systems.

Hydrologic Connectivity Regulates Riverine N2O Sources and Dynamics.

Indirect nitrous oxide (N2O) emissions from streams and rivers are a poorly constrained term in the global N2O budget. Current models of riverine N2O emissions place a strong focus on denitrification in groundwater and riverine environments as a dominant source of riverine N2O, but do not explicitly consider direct N2O input from terrestrial ecosystems. Here, we combine N2O isotope measurements and spatial stream network modeling to show that terrestrial-aquatic interactions, driven by changing hydrologic connectivity, control the sources and dynamics of riverine N2O in a mesoscale river network within the U.S. Corn Belt. We find that N2O produced from nitrification constituted a substantial fraction (i.e., >30%) of riverine N2O across the entire river network. The delivery of soil-produced N2O to streams was identified as a key mechanism for the high nitrification contribution and potentially accounted for more than 40% of the total riverine emission. This revealed large terrestrial N2O input implies an important climate-N2O feedback mechanism that may enhance riverine N2O emissions under a wetter and warmer climate. Inadequate representation of hydrologic connectivity in observations and modeling of riverine N2O emissions may result in significant underestimations.

Extratropical storms induce carbon outgassing over the Southern Ocean

The strength and variability of the Southern Ocean carbon sink is a significant source of uncertainty in the global carbon budget. One barrier to reconciling observations and models is understanding how synoptic weather patterns modulate air-sea carbon exchange. Here, we identify and track storms using atmospheric sea level pressure fields from reanalysis data to assess the role that storms play in driving air-sea CO2 exchange. We examine the main drivers of CO2 fluxes under storm forcing and quantify their contribution to Southern Ocean annual air-sea CO2 fluxes. Our analysis relies on a forced ocean-ice simulation from the Community Earth System Model, as well as CO2 fluxes estimated from Biogeochemical Argo floats. We find that extratropical storms in the Southern Hemisphere induce CO2 outgassing, driven by CO2 disequilibrium. However, this effect is an order of magnitude larger in observations compared to the model and caused by different reasons. Despite large uncertainties in CO2 fluxes and storm statistics, observations suggest a pivotal role of storms in driving Southern Ocean air-sea CO2 outgassing that remains to be well represented in climate models, and needs to be further investigated in observations.

Spatiotemporal distributions of dissolved N2O concentration, diffusive N2O flux and relevant functional genes along a coastal creek in southeastern China

Increased anthropogenic input of nitrogen into coastal creeks make them potential hotspots for N2O production and emission, but they are often excluded from regional and global N2O budget, and high-resolution sampling is required to characterize the strong spatiotemporal heterogeneity within the creeks. In this study, we analyzed the N2O concentration and diffusive N2O flux within a coastal creek in the Shanyutan Wetland in southeastern China in high spatial resolution across four seasons. Ancillary hydrographical variables and N2O-related functional gene abundances were also measured. Results showed that the creek was consistently oversaturated in N2O, at a seasonal average of 5.6–14.2 nmol/L, relative to the overlying atmosphere. The spatial distribution of N2O followed the gradient of nitrogenous substrate but was inversely related to the salinity gradient, and the coefficient of spatial variation of N2O flux ranged from 66.3 % to 116.5 %. Nitrite reduction (based on nirK and nirS gene abundances) and ammonia oxidation (AOA amoA and AOB amoA) appeared to outpace N2O reduction (nosZ I and nosZ II), and these were the main microbial processes that determined N2O concentration and flux. Both N2O concentration and flux were substantially higher in autumn than those in the other seasons, but that did not appear to be related to precipitation. N2O diffusive flux from the creek averaged 322.2 nmol m−2 h−1, which was over 2 times higher than the global average for lakes and reservoirs. Our results highlight that coastal creeks are strong atmospheric N2O sources with high spatiotemporal variability.

Predicting healthcare expenditure based on Adjusted Morbidity Groups to implement a needs-based capitation financing system

BackgroundDue to population aging, healthcare expenditure is projected to increase substantially in developed countries like Spain. However, prior research indicates that health status, not merely age, is a key driver of healthcare costs. This study analyzed data from over 1.25 million residents of Spain's Murcia region to develop a capitation-based healthcare financing model incorporating health status via Adjusted Morbidity Groups (AMGs). The goal was to simulate an equitable area-based healthcare budget allocation reflecting population needs.MethodsUsing 2017 data on residents' age, sex, AMG designation, and individual healthcare costs, generalized linear models were built to predict healthcare expenditure based on health status indicators. Multiple link functions and distribution families were tested, with model selection guided by information criteria, residual analysis, and goodness-of-fit statistics. The selected model was used to estimate adjusted populations and simulate capitated budgets for the 9 healthcare districts in Murcia.ResultsThe gamma distribution with logarithmic link function provided the best model fit. Comparisons of predicted and actual average costs revealed underfunded and overfunded areas within Murcia. If implemented, the capitation model would decrease funding for most districts (up to 15.5%) while increasing it for two high-need areas, emphasizing allocation based on health status and standardized utilization rather than historical spending alone.ConclusionsAMG-based capitated budgeting could improve equity in healthcare financing across regions in Spain. By explicitly incorporating multimorbidity burden into allocation formulas, resources can be reallocated towards areas with poorer overall population health. Further policy analysis and adjustment is needed before full-scale implementation of such need-based global budgets.