Global Atmospheric Temperature Research Articles

Numerical experiments on paleoclimate modeling

The influence of climatic parameters (values of CO2 concentration in the atmosphere, solar constant), the configuration of continents, as well as the distribution of the depths of the World Ocean, characteristic of the time periods under consideration, on the climate is investigated. A global climate model is used, including a model of three-dimensional thermohaline circulation of the ocean, an energy-moisture balance model of the atmosphere and a model of the sea ice evolution. Numerical experiments have been carried out to model the climate corresponding to the periods 120.4 million years ago and 200 million years ago with sharply different parameters. The first interval was characterized by high CO2 concentrations and a continent lying in meridional direction. During the second interval a super continent was located in the Northern polar region extending to the South but not reaching the South Pole. Calculations show that the average global climatic characteristics achieve to a stationary regime during about 1500-2000 years. The main global and spatial climatic characteristics for the atmosphere, ocean, and sea ice are obtained. The estimated average global atmospheric temperature falls within the limits reconstructed from observations. The features of ocean circulation for the corresponding periods are studied.

The climate impacts and potential benefits of services export growth in developing countries

Promoting the services trade is considered an effective means of revitalizing the economy at a marginal environmental cost in the post-pandemic era. However, the impact of services trade growth and how to promote services development remain to be addressed. This study investigates the performance of the services trade for both developed and developing countries as well as the impact of their services trade growth on the Paris Agreement climate target and the possible synergy for achieving the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). Moreover, policy recommendations are provided for developing countries to facilitate services trade growth. Input–output analysis, comparative advantage theory, and the Model for the Assessment of Greenhouse Gas Induced Climate Change (MAGICC) are used in this study. The results show that services trade accounted for 44.4 % of global trade-induced value added but only 14.7 % of CO2 emissions. Services trade growth would lead to 199.8 Mt and 311.2 Mt CO2 emissions under the ServGrow scenario and DoubDeve scenario, respectively, suggesting that vigorously promoting services exports growth of developing countries has limited carbon implications. Further simulation indicates that the global atmospheric temperature increase caused by services trade growth in both scenarios is within 0.05 °C. Notably, accelerating services exports growth in developing countries helps to mitigate the inequality between developed and developing countries. The findings of this study can inform policymakers regarding the formulation and implementation of policies for economic recovery, reducing inequality, addressing climate change, and contributing to the achievement of the SDGs.

Simulation and analysis of radiant intensity for critical

Atmospheric oxygen A-band (759-767nm) airglow has strong radiation intensity in the visible band, and the global atmospheric temperature field can be obtained based on the oxygen A-spectrum line. In order to realize the marginal observation of oxygen A-airglow, the intensity distribution and change at different heights need to be simulated. Firstly, the body emissivity at different heights and solar zenith angles is obtained based on the photochemical model of oxygen A-band airglow. Secondly, the oxygen airglow radiation transmission process is established based on the observation geometry of the edge. Then, the airglow radiation intensity is simulated based on the detection geometry path of the edge to obtain the airglow spectrum lines at different observation heights of the edge.

Stream groundwater inputs generate fine‐scale variation in brook trout phenology and growth across a warming landscape

Abstract Climate change is increasing global atmospheric temperatures, which can reduce abundance and cause range shifts in species that are sensitive to warming. However, fine‐scale thermal heterogeneity can drive highly variable local responses to climate change, especially in freshwater environments that differ in groundwater inputs and geomorphology. We used temperature data collected during 2012–2021 from 10 small, pristine streams in eastern Canada to characterise thermal variation at a small spatial scale (~25 km2). We then used relationships between daily air and stream temperatures to reconstruct stream temperature since 1980, and assessed how thermal variation influenced the phenology and growth of brook trout (Salvelinus fontinalis). Air–stream temperature relationships varied considerably among streams despite their close proximity, with predicted summer temperatures differing up to 9.5°C between warmer rainfall‐dominated streams and cooler groundwater‐dominated streams. Rainfall‐dominated streams warmed more than twice as fast as groundwater‐dominated streams across all seasons since 1980, with nearly four‐fold differences in rates of warming evident during summer months. Fine‐scale thermal heterogeneity also shaped brook trout phenology, as juveniles in rainfall‐dominated streams were estimated to hatch and emerge much later (~70 and 40 days, respectively) and experience faster phenological shifts than in groundwater‐dominated streams. Relationships between juvenile brook trout size and accumulated degree‐days were positive, but slopes differed over two‐fold and did not vary systematically based on stream hydrology, suggesting more idiosyncratic impacts of warming on early growth. Collectively, our study illustrates how species responses to climate change in freshwater environments can be consistent in direction but vary substantially in magnitude owing to the influence of groundwater. Future climate change is likely to increase the thermal stress experienced by brook trout populations in warmer rainfall‐dominated streams, while potentially benefiting those in groundwater‐dominated streams where current temperatures are often suboptimal. Observed differences in the rates and ecological impacts of warming among streams suggest that fine‐scale thermal variation must be considered when forecasting effects of future climate change on stream fish population dynamics.

Novel Compact Polarized Martian Wind Imaging Interferometer

The Mars Atmospheric Wind Imaging Interferometer offers several advantages, notably its high throughput, enabling the acquisition of precise and high vertical resolution data on the temperature and wind fields in the Martian atmosphere. Considering the current absence of such an Interferometer, this paper introduces a novel Mars wind field imaging interferometer. In analyzing the photochemical model of O2 (a1Δg) 1.27 μm molecular airglow radiation in the Martian atmosphere and considering the impact of instrument signal-to-noise ratio (SNR), we have chosen an optical path difference (OPD) of 8.6 cm for the interferometer. The all-solid-state polarized wind imaging interferometer is miniaturized by incorporating two arm glasses as the compensation medium in its construction, achieving the effects of field-widening and temperature compensation. Additionally, an F-P Etalon is designed to selectively filter the desired three spectral lines of O2 dayglow, and its effect is evaluated through simulations. The accuracy of the proposed compact Mars polarized wind imaging interferometer for detecting Mars’ wind field and temperature field has been validated through rigorous theoretical derivation and comprehensive computer simulations. The interferometer boasts several advantages, including its compact and small size, static stability, minimal stray light, and absence of moving parts. It establishes the theoretical, technological, and instrumental engineering foundations for future simultaneous static measurement of Martian global atmospheric wind fields, temperature fields, and ozone concentrations from spacecraft, thereby significantly contributing to the dataset for investigating Martian atmospheric dynamics.

Agronomic and Physiological Indices for Reproductive Stage Heat Stress Tolerance in Green Super Rice

Optimum growing temperature is necessary for maximum yield-potential in any crop. The global atmospheric temperature is changing more rapidly and irregularly every year. High temperature at the flowering/reproductive stage in rice causes partial to complete pollen sterility, resulting in significant reduction in grain yield. Green Super Rice (GSR) is an effort to develop an elite rice type that can withstand multiple environmental stresses and maintain yield in different agro-ecological zones. The current study was performed to assess the effect of heat stress on agronomic and physiological attributes of GSR at flowering stage. Twenty-two GSR lines and four local checks were evaluated under normal and heat-stress conditions for different agro-physiological parameters, including plant height (PH), tillers per plant (TPP), grain yield per plant (GY), straw yield per plant (SY), harvest index (HI), 1000-grain weight (GW), grain length (GL), cell membrane stability (CMS), normalized difference vegetative index (NDVI), and pollen fertility percentage (PFP). Genotypes showed high significant variations for all the studied parameters except NDVI. Association and principal component analysis (PCA) explained the genetic diversity of the genotypes, and relationship between the particular parameters and grain yield. We found that GY, along with other agronomic traits, such as TPP, SY, HI, and CMS, were greatly affected by heat stress in most of the genotypes, while PH, GW, GL, PFP, and NDVI were affected only in a few genotypes. Outperforming NGSR-16 and NGSR-18 in heat stress could be utilized as a parent for the development of heat-tolerant rice. Moreover, these findings will be helpful in the prevention and management of heat stress in rice.

Persistent Ross Sea Freshening From Imbalance West Antarctic Ice Shelf Melting

AbstractA 63‐year observational record in the southwest Ross Sea shows a continuing, near‐linear salinity decrease of 0.170 and slight warming of 0.013°C through 2020. That freshening exceeded any increase in sea ice production and brine release from stronger southerly winds, while melting and freezing at the Ross Ice Shelf base contributed little to the salinity change. The parallel seawater density decline appears not to have enhanced warm deep water intrusions onto the continental shelf (CS). Confirming prior inferences, the salinity change has been mainly caused by a growing imbalance in the meltwater available from thinning ice shelves and increased iceberg calving in the upstream Amundsen and Bellingshausen Seas. Shorter‐term salinity variability has tracked winds near the Amundsen Sea CS break, in turn coherent with a broader Pacific climate variability index, and with salinity reversals on and seaward of the Ross CS. The melt driven freshening is positively correlated with global atmospheric CO2 and temperature increases, and adds to the rise in sea level from increased glacier flow into weakened ice shelves. Continued erosion of those ice shelves could end the production of high salinity shelf and bottom waters, as defined in the Ross Sea, by the 2050s.

Effects of a warming gradient on reproductive phenology of Stipa breviflora in a desert steppe

The sensitivity of plant phenology to climate change can be used as the basis for predicting change in plant species' growth and development period as they adapt to gradual increase in atmospheric temperature. However, it is not clear how the reproductive phenology of plants will respond to a continuous increase in temperature gradient, especially when the time series has break points due to interannual change. In this experiment, the flowering phenology of Stipa breviflora, an established species in the desert steppe of Siziwang Banner in northern China, was observed from 2009 to 2019. A no warming treatment and warming treatment (1.3 °C higher than no warming) were applied. Three temperature gradients were defined: the annual average temperature of the 0–10 cm soil layer in the no warming treatment plot from 2009 to 2019 was taken as the average temperature gradient (C2, 5.63 °C ± 1.09); a higher-than-average temperature gradient (C3, 6.93 °C ± 1.34), and a lower than the average temperature gradient (C1, 4.33 °C ± 1.87). The results showed that increasing temperature was an important driving factor that advanced the flowering phenology of S. breviflora. When high temperatures exceed plants’ physiological thresholds (5.63 °C ± 1.09), plants exhibit a temporary delay. Based on a Mann-Kendall test, we found that reproductive phenology was advanced from 2009 to 2015, and delayed by a time break point from 2015 to 2018. After 2018, reproductive phenology continued to be advanced, which once again verified that reproductive phenology would not continue to be advanced in the process of climate warming, but would be temporarily delayed. Therefore, our study reveals the response strategy of S. breviflora to a continuous increase in global atmospheric temperature, and provides a theoretical basis for studying the response mechanism of the desert steppe ecosystem to climate warming.

Analyzing canopy height variations in secondary tropical forests of Malaysia using NASA GEDI

Tropical forests play a significant role in regulating the average global atmospheric temperature encompassing 25 % of the carbon present in the terrestrial biosphere. However, the rapid change in climate, arising from unsustainable human practices, can significantly affect their carbon uptake capability in the future. For understanding these deviations, it is important to identify and quantify the large-scale canopy height variations arising from previous anthropogenic disturbances. With the advent of NASA GEDI spaceborne LiDAR (light detection and ranging), it is now possible to acquire three-dimensional vertical structural data of forests globally. In this study, we evaluate the applicability of GEDI for analyzing relative canopy height variations of secondary tropical forests of different age groups located across multiple geographical regions of peninsular Malaysia. The results for RH98 GEDI metric trends for the lowland and hill forests category across 4 different disturbance groups show a positive correlation between mean relative height and secondary forest ages. The consistency of these findings with previous studies in the region indicate the usefulness of GEDI to provide valuable insights into the patterns and drivers of forest height variation. Thus, this study contributes toward the operationalization of spaceborne LiDAR technology for monitoring forest disturbances and measuring biomass recovery rates and should help support large-scale sustainable forest management initiatives with respect to the tropical forests of Malaysia.

INVESTIGATING THE HISTORICAL CORRELATION BETWEEN ATMOSPHERIC CARBON DIOXIDE CONCENTRATION AND GLOBAL TEMPERATURE CHANGE

Understanding the fundamental relationship between atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration and temperature rise is essential for tackling the problem of climate change that faces us today. Misconceptions regarding the relationship are widespread due to media and political influences. This investigation aims to address the popular misconception that CO2 concentration directly and naturally leads to global temperature rise. While anthropogenic CO2 emissions seem to affect the rising global atmospheric temperature with a confidence of 95%, it falters when the historical relationship using ice core data is studied. This investigation uses two statistical approaches to determine an accurate range and direction for this important relationship. Through a combined approach, it was found that historically CO2 concentration in the last 650 000 years lags global temperature rise by 1020-1080 years with a maximum correlation coefficient of 0.8371-0.8372. This result is important for the investigation of climate change.

Global Temperature Responses to Large Tropical Volcanic Eruptions in Paleo Data Assimilation Products and Climate Model Simulations Over the Last Millennium

AbstractLarge volcanic eruptions are one of the dominant perturbations to global and regional atmospheric temperatures on timescales of years to decades. Discrepancies remain, however, in the estimated magnitude and persistence of the surface temperature cooling caused by volcanic eruptions, as characterized by paleoclimatic proxies and climate models. We investigate these discrepancies in the context of large tropical eruptions over the Last Millennium using two state‐of‐the‐art data assimilation products, the Paleo Hydrodynamics Data Assimilation product (PHYDA) and the Last Millennium Reanalysis (LMR), and simulations from the National Center for Atmospheric Research Community Earth System Model‐Last Millennium Ensemble (NCAR CESM‐LME). We find that PHYDA and LMR estimate mean global and hemispheric cooling that is similar in magnitude and persistence once effects from eruptions occurring in short succession are removed. The estimates also compare well to Northern‐Hemisphere reconstructions based solely or partially on tree‐ring density, which have been proposed as the most accurate proxy estimates of surface cooling due to volcanism. All proxy‐based estimates also agree well with the magnitude of the mean cooling simulated by the CESM‐LME. Differences remain, however, in the spatial patterns of the temperature responses in the PHYDA, LMR, and the CESM‐LME. The duration of cooling anomalies also persists for several years longer in the PHYDA and LMR relative to the CESM‐LME. Our results demonstrate progress in resolving discrepancies between proxy‐ and model‐based estimates of temperature responses to volcanism, but also indicate these estimates must be further reconciled to better characterize the risks of future volcanic eruptions.

Empirical evidence for a global atmospheric temperature control system: physical structure

There is evidence that a natural control system influences global atmospheric surface temperature (Leggett and Ball 2020). The present paper sets up and tests a hypothesis concerning the physical makeup of the sequential elements of the control system and its outcomes. The final outcome that the control system influences is defined as global atmospheric surface temperature. The terms used for the control system element types in the hypothesis are, in sequence: leading element, controller and actuator. Actuators are hypothesised to affect, in turn, the final outcome – either directly, or via penultimate outcomes. The existence of the control system is evidenced by demonstration of statistically significant one-way Granger causality across each step of the hypothesised control system sequence. Evidence is presented that the leading element of the control system, represented by the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index, is the global biosphere. The biosphere as a control system has previously been referred to as Gaia (Lovelock and Margulis 1974). A fourth, second-derivative, term is found to enhance the Proportional, Integral and Derivative process terms of the control system shown in Leggett and Ball (2020). The main actuators of the control system found are shown to be wind speed and cloud cover. Cloud cover is shown to influence the final outcome, global surface temperature, directly. It and wind speed also influence the penultimate outcomes found, those of enhanced ocean heat uptake and enhanced outgoing longwave radiation. These together lead to control system output to the final outcome, global atmospheric temperature. Overall, evidence for the activity of the control system is shown to be present across many major physical dimensions of the Earth’s atmosphere.

Eco−efficiency limits of product technologies towards achieving science-based targets

Science-based-targets (SBTs) have been introduced to guide companies to reduce their Greenhouse Gas emissions in line with the level of decarbonization required to keep average global atmospheric temperature increase well below 2°C compared to pre-industrial levels. SBTs seeks to decouple economic growth and emissions to achieve the greenhouse gas emission target of zero by 2050. This paper first investigates the eco−efficiency improvement required for various product technologies to achieve SBTs, considering market growth. Afterwards, it investigates the eco−efficiency limits of these product technologies and identifies where system innovation is required to achieve the required emission reduction while providing product functionality.

The climate emergency: why should dermatologists care and how can they act?

Weather and climate exist on a massive scale: over the last 650,000 years, only seven glacial cycles have occurred. The end of the last ice age 12,000 years ago marked the beginning of modern civilization - since then, an estimated 400 generations have passed. Yet it is only since the 1950s that greenhouse gas concentrations and global surface, atmospheric, and ocean temperatures have climbed to their highest levels in millennia, destabilizing climate systems and causing extreme weather events.

A Pilot‐Scale Demonstration of Mobile Direct Air Capture Using Metal‐Organic Frameworks

AbstractIt is increasingly apparent that negative emissions technologies, such as direct air capture (DAC), are required as part of the technology mix for limiting global atmospheric temperature increase. For all DAC technologies, the requisite energy for regeneration of the separation media strongly influences the overall cost of the process and therefore directly influences their likely implementation. Herein, the results of a pilot‐scale demonstration of a new metal organic framework (MOF) based technology, Airthena, incorporated within a mobile unit for distributed deployment, are reported. Careful preparation of a MOF nanocomposite results in a CO2‐selective sorbent with fine‐tuned kinetic and thermodynamic properties. An optimum regeneration temperature of 80 °C is achieved, along with strong repellence of water vapor during the adsorption process. Taken together, this demonstrator has delivered one of the lowest regeneration energy consumptions, 1.6 kWh kg‐CO2−1 with output purity of 70–80%. This equates to an operational cost of $35–$350 ton‐CO2−1 depending on the source of regeneration energy. Over the duration of the pilot‐scale testing, the demonstrator captures a total of 8 kg of CO2 over 2680 cycles.

Changes in the Dynamics of the Northern Hemisphere Atmospheric Circulation and the Relationship to Surface Temperature in the 20th and 21st Centuries

This study examines the long-term fluctuations in the Northern Hemisphere (NH) and global atmospheric circulation, teleconnections, including blocking, and surface temperature over the period 1899–2018. The teleconnection and blocking data were available from the mid-20th century. The classification of the global atmospheric circulation was developed from an early subjective categorization of atmospheric circulation conditions for the NH that considered the number, location, and amplitude of waves on the jet stream for frequently occurring circulation patterns. This work updated earlier studies that identified three circulation epochs based on the predominance of one of four different flow types that were grouped primarily based on whether the flow was zonal or meridional. This work noted a significant correlation between the early 21st century flow change toward the occurrence of more meridional flows and the increase in the occurrence of blocking as well as changes in the teleconnection indexes. The early 21st century was associated with a distinct change in the Northern Hemisphere flow entropy as measured using Information or Shannon Entropy, a change that was shown to be statistically significant. Additionally, this demonstrated that this quantity has utility as a dynamic diagnostic tool in atmospheric science. Finally, a comparison of these flow regimes to the 20th and 21st century variations in surface temperature were considered here. The global average annual surface temperature variations correlated strongly to fluctuations in the predominant atmospheric circulation type.

Derivative Analysis of Global Average Temperatures

Contemporary climate studies are quite numerous, and the topic in general has become politically charged, where opposing political interests have generated juxtaposed studies with contradictory results despite near unanimous acceptance of the fact the planet is warning.  One emotionally charged issue is whether the increase is man-made or naturally occurring.  This study avoids political pitfalls and controversial postulations, instead seeking to add to the literature a mathematical catastrophe analysis based on derivative modelling and extrapolation to deduce whether an unexpected (sudden) rise or fall in dynamic global atmospheric temperatures (e.g. an ice age) is predicted by the dynamic atmospheric temperature data.  The study concludes that extrapolations of a derivative model encounter an unstable equilibrium point at the end of this century leading to a prediction of the potential for a sudden, dramatic increase in global average temperatures. The author takes care not to make controversial predictions, instead merely follows the mathematical facts where they lead:  The potential for a catastrophe if the unnamed causes of global temperature increases remain unaddressed.

An Analysis of the Earth’s Energy Budget

In this paper we quantify and attribute by inspection the constituent elements of the power intensity radiant flux transmission for the atmosphere of the Earth, as recorded in the following two published sources; Oklahoma Climatological Survey and Kiehl and Trenberth. The purpose of our analysis is to establish the common elements of the approach used in the formulation of these works, and to conduct an assessment of the two approaches by establishing a common format for their comparison. By applying the standard analysis of a geometric infinite series feed-back loop to an equipartition (half up and half down) diabatic distribution used for the atmospheric radiant flux to all elements of the climate model; our analysis establishes the relative roles of radiant and mass-motion carried energy fluxes that are implicitly used by the authors in their respective analyses. Having established the key controls on energy flux within each model, we then conduct for the canonical model a series of “what-if” scenarios to establish the limits of temperature rise that can be achieved for specific variations in the controls used to calculate the global average temperature. Our analysis establishes that, for the current insolation and Bond albedo, the maximum temperature that can be achieved for a thermally radiant opaque atmosphere is a rise to 29°C. This global average temperature is achieved by a total blocking of the surface-to-space atmospheric window. In order to raise the global average atmospheric temperature to the expected value of 36°C for a putative Cretaceous hothouse world, it is therefore necessary to reduce the planetary Bond albedo. The lack of continental icecaps, and the presence of flooded continental shelves with epeiric seas in a global eustatic high stand sea level, is invoked as an explanation to support the modelling concept of a reduced global Bond albedo during the Cretaceous period. The geological evidence for this supposition is mentioned with reference to published sources.

Cooling down the world oceans and the earth by enhancing the North Atlantic Ocean current

The world is going through intensive changes due to global warming. It is well known that the reduction in ice cover in the Arctic Ocean further contributes to increasing the atmospheric Arctic temperature due to the reduction of the albedo effect and increase in heat absorbed by the ocean’s surface. The Arctic ice cover also works like an insulation sheet, keeping the heat in the ocean from dissipating into the cold Arctic atmosphere. Increasing the salinity of the Arctic Ocean surface would allow the warmer and less salty North Atlantic Ocean current to flow on the surface of the Arctic Ocean considerably increasing the temperature of the Arctic atmosphere and release the ocean heat trapped under the ice. This paper argues that if the North Atlantic Ocean current could maintain the Arctic Ocean ice-free during the winter, the longwave radiation heat loss into space would be larger than the increase in heat absorption due to the albedo effect. This paper presents details of the fundamentals of the Arctic Ocean circulation and presents three possible approaches for increasing the salinity of the surface water of the Arctic Ocean. It then discusses that increasing the salinity of the Arctic Ocean would warm the atmosphere of the Arctic region, but cool down the oceans and possibly the Earth. However, it might take thousands of years for the effects of cooling the oceans to cool the global average atmospheric temperature.

Attributing ocean acidification to major carbon producers

Recent research has quantified the contributions of CO2 and CH4 emissions traced to the products of major fossil fuel companies and cement manufacturers to global atmospheric CO2, surface temperature, and sea level rise. This work has informed societal considerations of the climate responsibilities of these major industrial carbon producers. Here, we extend this work to historical (1880–2015) and recent (1965–2015) acidification of the world’s ocean. Using an energy balance carbon-cycle model, we find that emissions traced to the 88 largest industrial carbon producers from 1880–2015 and 1965–2015 have contributed ∼55% and ∼51%, respectively, of the historical 1880–2015 decline in surface ocean pH. As ocean acidification is not spatially uniform, we employ a three-dimensional ocean model and identify five marine regions with large declines in surface water pH and aragonite saturation state over similar historical (average 1850–1859 to average 2000–2009) and recent (average 1960–1969 to average of 2000–2009) time periods. We characterize the biological and socioeconomic systems in these regions facing loss and damage from ocean acidification in the context of climate change and other stressors. Such analysis can inform societal consideration of carbon producer responsibility for current and near-term risks of further loss and damage to human communities dependent on marine ecosystems and fisheries vulnerable to ocean acidification.