Abstract
Understanding the fundamental relationship between atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration and temperature rise is essential for tackling the problem of climate change that faces us today. Misconceptions regarding the relationship are widespread due to media and political influences. This investigation aims to address the popular misconception that CO2 concentration directly and naturally leads to global temperature rise. While anthropogenic CO2 emissions seem to affect the rising global atmospheric temperature with a confidence of 95%, it falters when the historical relationship using ice core data is studied. This investigation uses two statistical approaches to determine an accurate range and direction for this important relationship. Through a combined approach, it was found that historically CO2 concentration in the last 650 000 years lags global temperature rise by 1020-1080 years with a maximum correlation coefficient of 0.8371-0.8372. This result is important for the investigation of climate change.
Highlights
Climate change is an issue at the forefront of science and technology
The most important world-wide study of global warming, performed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change estimated that the probability for the increase in the CO2 emissions to the atmosphere causing the increase the atmospheric temperature, is 95% [7]
A widely held assumption is that temperature rise is the direct result of increased carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions [8], [9]
Summary
Climate change is an issue at the forefront of science and technology. Rising global temperatures has put humankind on a crossroad. If we continue our current path of using the primary energy resources, wildlife will suffer, ecosystems may collapse, and agriculture will suffer serious consequences, all affecting our entire society [1]– [3]. These effects would be reflected in our modern society through food and freshwater shortages, macroeconomic deficiencies, and increased human aggression [1], [4]–[6]. While these impacts have been quantified and empirically determined, the mechanisms by which the global temperature rises is not 100% known. The industrial revolution marked the beginning of incredible human influence on the global environment and the atmosphere
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