Global Atmospheric General Circulation Model Research Articles

Future Atmospheric Rivers and Impacts on Precipitation: Overview of the ARTMIP Tier 2 High‐Resolution Global Warming Experiment

AbstractAtmospheric rivers (ARs) are long, narrow synoptic scale weather features important for Earth’s hydrological cycle typically transporting water vapor poleward, delivering precipitation important for local climates. Understanding ARs in a warming climate is problematic because the AR response to climate change is tied to how the feature is defined. The Atmospheric River Tracking Method Intercomparison Project (ARTMIP) provides insights into this problem by comparing 16 atmospheric river detection tools (ARDTs) to a common data set consisting of high resolution climate change simulations from a global atmospheric general circulation model. ARDTs mostly show increases in frequency and intensity, but the scale of the response is largely dependent on algorithmic criteria. Across ARDTs, bulk characteristics suggest intensity and spatial footprint are inversely correlated, and most focus regions experience increases in precipitation volume coming from extreme ARs. The spread of the AR precipitation response under climate change is large and dependent on ARDT selection.

Smaller Sensitivity of Precipitation to Surface Temperature Under Massive Atmospheres

AbstractPrecipitation and its response to forcing is an important aspect of planetary climate system. In this study, we examine the strength of precipitation in the experiments with different atmospheric masses and their response to surface warming, using three global atmospheric general circulation models and one regional cloud‐resolving model. We find that precipitation is weaker when atmospheric mass is larger for a given surface temperature. Furthermore, the increasing rate of precipitation with increasing surface temperature under a larger atmospheric mass is smaller than that under a smaller atmospheric mass. These behaviors can be understood based on atmospheric or surface energy balance. Atmospheric mass influences Rayleigh scattering, multiple scattering in the atmosphere, pressure broadening, lapse rate, and thereby precipitation strength. These results have important implications on the climate and habitability of early Earth, early Mars, and exoplanets with oceans.

Mechanical and Thermal Impacts of the Tibetan–Iranian Plateau on the North Pacific Storm Track: Numerical Experiments by FGOALS‐f3‐L

AbstractBy employing a state‐of‐the‐art global atmospheric general circulation model from the Global Monsoons Model Inter‐comparison Project, this study investigates the mechanical and thermal impacts of the Tibetan‐Iranian Plateau (TIP) on the North Pacific storm track (NPST). When the TIP‐associated mechanical forcing is removed, the winter NPST strengthens remarkably on the northern flank of its climatological maximum and becomes inconspicuously separated from storm track activities over the Asian continent. The midwinter suppression of the NPST is almost inapparent but still exists. In contrast, when TIP‐associated thermal forcing is absent, the winter NPST amplitudes weaken prominently on the north and west sides, and the midwinter suppression remains obvious. The mechanical and thermal impact of the TIP on the NPST are robust not only in winter but also in other seasons. Without the TIP‐associated mechanical forcing, the intensified winter NPST may be dependent on the weakened and widened upper‐level jet, strengthened atmospheric baroclinicity on the north side of climatological winter upper‐level jet, enhanced baroclinic energy conversion, and attenuated East Asian trough. In contrast, without the TIP‐associated thermal forcing, the weakened winter NPST may be determined by the strengthened and narrowed upper‐level jet, reduced atmospheric baroclinicity on the northern flank of upper‐level jet, decreased baroclinic energy conversion, and intensified East Asian trough.

Modeling the Impacts of Climate Change on Groundwater Resources: A Review

Global atmospheric general circulation models (GCMs) were developed to simulate the current climate and are used to predict climate change. Several Global Climate Models (GCM’s) are available for understanding and projecting climate change. GCM requires to be downscale on a basin-scale and combined with applicable hydrological models considering all components of the hydrologic process. The performance of such coupling models, such as groundwater recharge quantification, should help to make correct adaptation strategies. Climate change has the ability to affect both the quality and quantity of available groundwater, mainly through impact on recharge, evapotranspiration, pump-age and abstraction. As a consequence, groundwater is a significant contributor to the streamflow in areas with fairly shallow water resources, knowing how climate change could impact groundwater supplies is crucial for long-term water resource management. The effect of climate change on groundwater systems is very difficult to predict. Part of the uncertainty of climate predictions is embedded of possibilities. Better insights, a more profound knowledge of mechanisms and modeling skills are required to determine this critical resource’s potential in the face of predicted climate change.

An idealized protocol to assess the nesting procedure in regional climate modelling

AbstractNewtonian relaxation applied at boundaries of RCM (regional climate model) is a widely‐used technique for climate downscaling and regional weather forecasting. It allows RCM to be nested into GCM (global climate model) and to follow the evolution of the latter. An idealized framework to mimic this general practice is constructed with the LMDZ (Laboratoire de Météorologie Dynamique, Zoom) modelling platform and used to assess effects of the relaxation procedure. The assessment is on both synoptic variability and long‐term mean. LMDZ is a global atmospheric general circulation model that can be configured as a regional model when the outside domain is relaxed to a driver. It thus plays the role of both GCM and RCM. Same physical parameterization and identical dynamical configuration are used to ensure a rigorous comparison between the two models. The experimental set‐up that can be referred to as “Master (GCM) versus Slave (RCM)” considers GCM as the reference to assess the behaviour of RCM. In terms of mean climate, there are noticeable differences, not only in the border areas, but also within the domain. In terms of synoptic variability, there is a general spatial resemblance and temporal concomitance between the two models. But there is a dependence on variables, seasons, spatiotemporal scales and spatial modes of atmospheric circulation. Winter/Summer has the most/least resemblance between RCM and GCM. A better similarity occurs when atmospheric circulation manifests at large scales. Weak‐correlation cases are generally remarked when the dominant circulation of the region is at smaller scales. A further experiment with identical framework but RCM in a higher resolution allows isolating the effect of relaxation from that of mesh refinement.

Development of the global atmospheric chemistry general circulation model BCC-GEOS-Chem v1.0: model description and evaluation

Abstract. Chemistry plays an indispensable role in investigations of the atmosphere; however, many climate models either ignore or greatly simplify atmospheric chemistry, limiting both their accuracy and their scope. We present the development and evaluation of the online global atmospheric chemical model BCC-GEOS-Chem v1.0, coupling the GEOS-Chem chemical transport model (CTM) as an atmospheric chemistry component in the Beijing Climate Center atmospheric general circulation model (BCC-AGCM). The GEOS-Chem atmospheric chemistry component includes detailed tropospheric HOx–NOx–volatile organic compounds–ozone–bromine–aerosol chemistry and online dry and wet deposition schemes. We then demonstrate the new capabilities of BCC-GEOS-Chem v1.0 relative to the base BCC-AGCM model through a 3-year (2012–2014) simulation with anthropogenic emissions from the Community Emissions Data System (CEDS) used in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6). The model captures well the spatial distributions and seasonal variations in tropospheric ozone, with seasonal mean biases of 0.4–2.2 ppbv at 700–400 hPa compared to satellite observations and within 10 ppbv at the surface to 500 hPa compared to global ozonesonde observations. The model has larger high-ozone biases over the tropics which we attribute to an overestimate of ozone chemical production. It underestimates ozone in the upper troposphere which is likely due either to the use of a simplified stratospheric ozone scheme or to biases in estimated stratosphere–troposphere exchange dynamics. The model diagnoses the global tropospheric ozone burden, OH concentration, and methane chemical lifetime to be 336 Tg, 1.16×106 molecule cm−3, and 8.3 years, respectively, which is consistent with recent multimodel assessments. The spatiotemporal distributions of NO2, CO, SO2, CH2O, and aerosol optical depth are generally in agreement with satellite observations. The development of BCC-GEOS-Chem v1.0 represents an important step for the development of fully coupled earth system models (ESMs) in China.

Meridionally Extending Anomalous Wave Train over Asia During Breaks in the Indian Summer Monsoon

Anomalous interactions between the Indian summer monsoon (ISM) circulation and subtropical westerlies are known to trigger breaks in the ISM on subseasonal time-scales, characterised by a pattern of suppressed rainfall over central-north India, and enhanced rainfall over the foothills of the central–eastern Himalayas (CEH). An intriguing feature during ISM breaks is the formation of a mid-tropospheric cyclonic circulation anomaly extending over the subtropical and mid-latitude areas of the Asian continent. This study investigates the mechanism of the aforesaid Asian continental mid-tropospheric cyclonic circulation (ACMCC) anomaly using observations and simplified model experiments. The results of our study indicate that the ACMCC during ISM breaks is part of a larger meridional wave train comprising of alternating anticyclonic and cyclonic anomalies that extend poleward from the monsoon region to the Arctic. A lead–lag analysis of mid-tropospheric circulation anomalies suggests that the meridional wave-train generation is linked to latent heating (LH) anomalies over the CEH foothills, Indo-China, and the Indian landmass during ISM breaks. By conducting sensitivity experiments using a simplified global atmospheric general circulation model forced with satellite-derived three-dimensional LH, it is demonstrated that the combined effects of the enhanced LH over the CEH foothills and Indo-China and decreased LH over the Indian landmass during ISM breaks are pivotal for generating the poleward extending meridional wave train and the ACMCC anomaly. At the same time, the spatial extent of the mid-latitude cyclonic anomaly over Far-East Asia is also influenced by the anomalous LH over central–eastern China. While the present findings provide interesting insights into the role of LH anomalies during ISM breaks on the poleward extending meridional wave train, the ACMCC anomaly is found to have important ramifications on the daily rainfall extremes over the Indo-China region. It is revealed from the present analysis that the frequency of extreme rainfall occurrences over Indo-China shows a twofold increase during ISM break periods as compared to active ISM conditions.

Trade-offs between computation, communication, and synchronization in stencil-collective alternate update

In a computing platform composed of several homogeneous processors, any parallel schedule of an algorithm usually involves three basic costs: arithmetic throughput on each processor, data movement between processors, and synchronization latency for several processors. The trade-offs between these three costs could realistically reflect lower bounds on the execution time for an algorithm. Therefore, the trade-off analysis is important for evaluating the optimality of a proposed schedule, and often yields new insights in parallel optimization. In this paper, we focus on the trade-offs between computation, communication, and synchronization in the stencil-collective alternate update, which is often executed repeatedly by the complex workflow with multiple stages in most numerical methods, such as the conjugate gradient (CG) method, the nonlinear time integration method in the dynamical core of a global atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM), and so on. Firstly, in order to formalize a workflow with multiple different stages, a novel operator representation of parallel algorithms is proposed. Based on the operator representation, we find the minimum vertex separator of the dependency graph for a stencil-collective alternate update. This breakthrough brings us the opportunity to obtain the cost lower bounds. Next, the general trade-off theory of the stencil-collective alternate update is founded successfully, which extends the recent trade-off theory to a more general theoretical context. Finally, by applying the general theoretical result to several algorithms, namely CG method and the nonlinear time integration method in AGCM, we obtain the corresponding lower bounds of computational cost, communication throughput, and synchronization latency. It should be noted that the general theory can also be widely used to analyze other complex numerical methods in real-world applications.

A Hybrid Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere Model and Its Simulation of ENSO and Atmospheric Responses

A new hybrid coupled model (HCM) is presented in this study, which consists of an intermediate tropical Pacific Ocean model and a global atmospheric general circulation model. The ocean component is the intermediate ocean model (IOM) of the intermediate coupled model (ICM) used at the Institute of Oceanology, Chinese Academy of Sciences (IOCAS). The atmospheric component is ECHAM5, the fifth version of the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology atmospheric general circulation model. The HCM integrates its atmospheric and oceanic components by using an anomaly coupling strategy. A 100-year simulation has been made with the HCM and its simulation skills are evaluated, including the interannual variability of SST over the tropical Pacific and the ENSO-related responses of the global atmosphere. The model shows irregular occurrence of ENSO events with a spectral range between two and five years. The amplitude and lifetime of ENSO events and the annual phase-locking of SST anomalies are also reproduced realistically. Despite the slightly stronger variance of SST anomalies over the central Pacific than observed in the HCM, the patterns of atmospheric anomalies related to ENSO, such as sea level pressure, temperature and precipitation, are in broad agreement with observations. Therefore, this model can not only simulate the ENSO variability, but also reproduce the global atmospheric variability associated with ENSO, thereby providing a useful modeling tool for ENSO studies. Further model applications of ENSO modulations by ocean-atmosphere processes, and of ENSO-related climate prediction, are also discussed.

Empirical Run‐Time Bias Correction for Antarctic Regional Climate Projections With a Stretched‐Grid AGCM

AbstractThis work presents snapshot simulations of the late 20th and late 21st century Antarctic climate under the RCP8.5 scenario carried out with an empirically bias‐corrected global atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM), forced with bias‐corrected sea‐surface temperatures and sea ice and run with about 100‐km resolution over Antarctica. The bias correction substantially improves the simulated mean late 20th century climate. The simulated atmospheric circulation of the bias‐corrected model compares very favorably to the best available AMIP (Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project)‐type climate models. The simulated interannual circulation variability is improved by the bias correction. Depending on the metric, a slight improvement or degradation is found in the simulated variability on synoptic timescales. The simulated climate change over the 21st century is broadly similar in the corrected and uncorrected versions of the atmospheric model, and atmospheric circulation patterns are not geographically “pinned” by the applied bias correction. These results suggest that the method presented here can be used for bias‐corrected climate projections. Finally, the authors discuss different possible choices in terms of the place of bias corrections and other intermediate steps in the modeling chain leading from global coupled climate simulations to impact assessment.

Impact of Global Change in Sulfur Dioxide, Black Carbon and Organic Carbon on PM2.5-Related Premature Mortality and Years Life Lost

Previous research has highlighted the importance of major atmospheric aerosols such as sulfate, through its precursor sulfur dioxide (SO2), black carbon (BC) and organic carbon (OC), and their effect on global climate regimes, specifically on their impact on particulate matter of size less than or equal to 2.5 micrometers in diameter (PM2.5). Coupled with these global climate simulations, are studies which highlight the negative effects of PM2.5 on human health. Globally, national policies attempt to address the change of these major active aerosols and their impact on PM2.5, which would later on presumably have a cascading effect towards the change of health risks. This study aims to determine how the change in the global anthropogenic aerosol emissions affect health, in particular through the change in attributable mortality (AN) and years of life lost (YLL). Model for Interdisciplinary Research on Climate (MIROC), a global atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) developed by several Japanese institutions, was used to estimate the gridded atmospheric aerosol (SO2, BC, and OC) data for 0.25 by 0.25 degrees. The gridded data were then utilized to estimate the associated cause-specific risks via an integrated exposure response function, and its consequent disease burden, in terms of AN and YLL, per WHO Regions. SEARO and WPRO regions were observed to have apparent variations in AN and YLL with respect to the change in atmospheric aerosols. If atmospheric aerosols were to be reduced, both SEARO and WPRO will have co-benefits (reduced AN) among the cerebrovascular population. On the other hand, if life expectancy were to be considered, co-benefits (reduced YLL) were apparent among acute lower respiratory infection population, for both regions. The changes in the atmospheric aerosols have varying impact on the changes in the disease burden landscape globally, which could translate to varying health-oriented aerosol mitigation policies.

Dynamical significance of tides over the Bay of Bengal

Tides play a significant role in the ocean surface circulations and vertical mixing thereby influencing the Sea Surface Temperatures (SST) as well. This, in turn, plays an important role in the global circulation when used as a lower boundary condition in a global atmospheric general circulation model. Therefore in the present study, the dynamics of tides over the Bay of Bengal (BoB) is investigated through numerical simulations using a high resolution (1/12°) Regional Ocean Modeling System (ROMS). Based on statistical analysis it is observed that incorporation of explicit tidal forcing improves the model performance in simulating the basin averaged monthly surface circulation features by 64% compared to the simulation without tides. The model simulates also Mixed Layer Depth (MLD) and SST realistically. The energy exchange between tidal oscillations and eddies leads to redistribution of surface kinetic energy density with a net decrease of 0.012 J m-3 in the western Bay and a net increase of 0.007 J m-3 in the eastern Bay. The tidal forcing also affects the potential energy anomaly and vertical mixing thereby leading to a fall in monthly MLD over the BoB. The mixing due to tides leads to a subsequent reduction in monthly SST and a corresponding reduction in surface heat exchange. These results from the numerical simulation using ROMS reveal that tides have a significant influence over the air-sea heat exchange which is the most important parameter for prediction of Tropical Cyclone frequency and its future variability over the BoB.

Estimates of late Cenozoic climate change relevant to Earth surface processes in tectonically active orogens

Abstract. The denudation history of active orogens is often interpreted in the context of modern climate gradients. Here we address the validity of this approach and ask what are the spatial and temporal variations in palaeoclimate for a latitudinally diverse range of active orogens? We do this using high-resolution (T159, ca. 80 × 80 km at the Equator) palaeoclimate simulations from the ECHAM5 global atmospheric general circulation model and a statistical cluster analysis of climate over different orogens (Andes, Himalayas, SE Alaska, Pacific NW USA). Time periods and boundary conditions considered include the Pliocene (PLIO, ∼ 3 Ma), the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM, ∼ 21 ka), mid-Holocene (MH, ∼ 6 ka), and pre-industrial (PI, reference year 1850). The regional simulated climates of each orogen are described by means of cluster analyses based on the variability in precipitation, 2 m air temperature, the intra-annual amplitude of these values, and monsoonal wind speeds where appropriate. Results indicate the largest differences in the PI climate existed for the LGM and PLIO climates in the form of widespread cooling and reduced precipitation in the LGM and warming and enhanced precipitation during the PLIO. The LGM climate shows the largest deviation in annual precipitation from the PI climate and shows enhanced precipitation in the temperate Andes and coastal regions for both SE Alaska and the US Pacific Northwest. Furthermore, LGM precipitation is reduced in the western Himalayas and enhanced in the eastern Himalayas, resulting in a shift of the wettest regional climates eastward along the orogen. The cluster-analysis results also suggest more climatic variability across latitudes east of the Andes in the PLIO climate than in other time slice experiments conducted here. Taken together, these results highlight significant changes in late Cenozoic regional climatology over the last ∼ 3 Myr. Comparison of simulated climate with proxy-based reconstructions for the MH and LGM reveal satisfactory to good performance of the model in reproducing precipitation changes, although in some cases discrepancies between neighbouring proxy observations highlight contradictions between proxy observations themselves. Finally, we document regions where the largest magnitudes of late Cenozoic changes in precipitation and temperature occur and offer the highest potential for future observational studies that quantify the impact of climate change on denudation and weathering rates.

Early 21st century anthropogenic changes in extremely hot days as simulated by the C20C+ detection and attribution multi-model ensemble

Abstract We examine the effect of the 20th and recent 21st century anthropogenic climate change on high temperature extremes as simulated by four global atmospheric general circulation models submitted to the Climate of the 20th Century Plus Detection and Attribution project. This coordinated experiment is based upon two large ensembles simulations for each participating model. The “world that was” simulations are externally forced as realistically as possible. The “world that might have been” is identical except that the influence of human forcing is removed but natural forcing agents and variations in ocean and sea ice are retained. We apply a stationary generalized extreme value analysis to the annual maxima of the three day average of the daily maximum surface air temperature, finding that long period return values have been increased by human activities between 1 and 3 °C over most land areas. Corresponding changes in the probability of achieving long period non-industrial return values in the industrialized world are also presented. We find that most regions experience increases in the frequency and intensity of extremely hot three day periods, but anthropogenic sulfate aerosol forcing changes locally can decrease these measures of heat waves in some models.

Changes in climate extremes, fresh water availability and vulnerability to food insecurity projected at 1.5°C and 2°C global warming with a higher-resolution global climate model.

We projected changes in weather extremes, hydrological impacts and vulnerability to food insecurity at global warming of 1.5°C and 2°C relative to pre-industrial, using a new global atmospheric general circulation model HadGEM3A-GA3.0 driven by patterns of sea-surface temperatures and sea ice from selected members of the 5th Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) ensemble, forced with the RCP8.5 concentration scenario. To provide more detailed representations of climate processes and impacts, the spatial resolution was N216 (approx. 60 km grid length in mid-latitudes), a higher resolution than the CMIP5 models. We used a set of impacts-relevant indices and a global land surface model to examine the projected changes in weather extremes and their implications for freshwater availability and vulnerability to food insecurity. Uncertainties in regional climate responses are assessed, examining ranges of outcomes in impacts to inform risk assessments. Despite some degree of inconsistency between components of the study due to the need to correct for systematic biases in some aspects, the outcomes from different ensemble members could be compared for several different indicators. The projections for weather extremes indices and biophysical impacts quantities support expectations that the magnitude of change is generally larger for 2°C global warming than 1.5°C. Hot extremes become even hotter, with increases being more intense than seen in CMIP5 projections. Precipitation-related extremes show more geographical variation with some increases and some decreases in both heavy precipitation and drought. There are substantial regional uncertainties in hydrological impacts at local scales due to different climate models producing different outcomes. Nevertheless, hydrological impacts generally point towards wetter conditions on average, with increased mean river flows, longer heavy rainfall events, particularly in South and East Asia with the most extreme projections suggesting more than a doubling of flows in the Ganges at 2°C global warming. Some areas are projected to experience shorter meteorological drought events and less severe low flows, although longer droughts and/or decreases in low flows are projected in many other areas, particularly southern Africa and South America. Flows in the Amazon are projected to decline by up to 25%. Increases in either heavy rainfall or drought events imply increased vulnerability to food insecurity, but if global warming is limited to 1.5°C, this vulnerability is projected to remain smaller than at 2°C global warming in approximately 76% of developing countries. At 2°C, four countries are projected to reach unprecedented levels of vulnerability to food insecurity.This article is part of the theme issue ‘The Paris Agreement: understanding the physical and social challenges for a warming world of 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels’.

Simulated cold bias being improved by using MODIS time-varying albedo in the Tibetan Plateau in WRF model

Systematic cold biases exist in the simulation for 2 m air temperature in the Tibetan Plateau (TP) when using regional climate models and global atmospheric general circulation models. We updated the albedo in the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model lower boundary condition using the Global LAnd Surface Satellite Moderate-Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer albedo products and demonstrated evident improvement for cold temperature biases in the TP. It is the large overestimation of albedo in winter and spring in the WRF model that resulted in the large cold temperature biases. The overestimated albedo was caused by the simulated precipitation biases and over-parameterization of snow albedo. Furthermore, light-absorbing aerosols can result in a large reduction of albedo in snow and ice cover. The results suggest the necessity of developing snow albedo parameterization using observations in the TP, where snow cover and melting are very different from other low-elevation regions, and the influence of aerosols should be considered as well. In addition to defining snow albedo, our results show an urgent call for improving precipitation simulation in the TP.

Global and regional radiative forcing from 20 % reductions in BC, OC and SO<sub>4</sub> – an HTAP2 multi-model study

Abstract. In the Hemispheric Transport of Air Pollution Phase 2 (HTAP2) exercise, a range of global atmospheric general circulation and chemical transport models performed coordinated perturbation experiments with 20 % reductions in emissions of anthropogenic aerosols, or aerosol precursors, in a number of source regions. Here, we compare the resulting changes in the atmospheric load and vertically resolved profiles of black carbon (BC), organic aerosols (OA) and sulfate (SO4) from 10 models that include treatment of aerosols. We use a set of temporally, horizontally and vertically resolved profiles of aerosol forcing efficiency (AFE) to estimate the impact of emission changes in six major source regions on global radiative forcing (RF) pertaining to the direct aerosol effect, finding values between. 51.9 and 210.8 mW m−2 Tg−1 for BC, between −2.4 and −17.9 mW m−2 Tg−1 for OA and between −3.6 and −10.3 W m−2 Tg−1 for SO4. In most cases, the local influence dominates, but results show that mitigations in south and east Asia have substantial impacts on the radiative budget in all investigated receptor regions, especially for BC. In Russia and the Middle East, more than 80 % of the forcing for BC and OA is due to extra-regional emission reductions. Similarly, for North America, BC emissions control in east Asia is found to be more important than domestic mitigations, which is consistent with previous findings. Comparing fully resolved RF calculations to RF estimates based on vertically averaged AFE profiles allows us to quantify the importance of vertical resolution to RF estimates. We find that locally in the source regions, a 20 % emission reduction strengthens the radiative forcing associated with SO4 by 25 % when including the vertical dimension, as the AFE for SO4 is strongest near the surface. Conversely, the local RF from BC weakens by 37 % since BC AFE is low close to the ground. The fraction of BC direct effect forcing attributable to intercontinental transport, on the other hand, is enhanced by one-third when accounting for the vertical aspect, because long-range transport primarily leads to aerosol changes at high altitudes, where the BC AFE is strong. While the surface temperature response may vary with the altitude of aerosol change, the analysis in the present study is not extended to estimates of temperature or precipitation changes.

Modern precipitation δ18O and trajectory analysis over the Himalaya‐Tibet Orogen from ECHAM5‐wiso simulations

AbstractVariations in oxygen isotope ratios (δ18O) measured from modern precipitation and geologic archives provide a promising tool for understanding modern and past climate dynamics and tracking elevation changes over geologic time. In areas of extreme topography, such as the Tibetan Plateau, the interpretation of δ18O has proven challenging. This study investigates the climate controls on temporal (daily and 6 h intervals) and spatial variations in present‐day precipitation δ18O (δ18Op) across the Tibetan Plateau using a 30 year record produced from the European Centre/Hamburg ECHAM5‐wiso global atmospheric general circulation model (GCM). Results indicate spatial and temporal agreement between model‐predicted δ18Op and observations. Large daily δ18Op variations of −25 to +5‰ occur over the Tibetan Plateau throughout the 30 simulation years, along with interannual δ18Op variations of ~2‰. Analysis of extreme daily δ18Op indicates that extreme low values coincide with extreme highs in precipitation amount. During the summer, monsoon vapor transport from the north and southwest of the plateau generally corresponds with high δ18Op, whereas vapor transport from the Indian Ocean corresponds with average to low δ18Op. Thus, vapor source variations are one important cause of the spatial‐temporal differences in δ18Op. Comparison of GCM and Rayleigh Distillation Model (RDM)‐predicted δ18Op indicates a modest agreement for the Himalaya region (averaged over 86°–94°E), confirming application of the simpler RDM approach for estimating δ18Op lapse rates across Himalaya.

Precipitation δ18O over the Himalaya‐Tibet orogen from ECHAM5‐wiso simulations: Statistical analysis of temperature, topography and precipitation

AbstractVariations in oxygen isotope compositions (δ18O) provide insight into modern climate and past changes in climate and topography. In addition, in regions such as Tibet, geologic archives of isotope ratios record climate change driven by plateau uplift and therefore also provide information about the surface uplift history. A good understanding of modern‐day controls on δ18O is crucial for interpreting geologic δ18O in this context. We use the ECHAM5‐wiso global atmospheric general circulation model to calculate δ18O in precipitation (δ18Op) for the present‐day climate. In the region of the Tibetan Plateau, spatial variations of monthly means of δ18Op are statistically related to spatial variations of 2 m air temperature and precipitation rate, as well as to topography. The size and location of investigated regions are varied in our study to capture regional differences in these relationships and the processes governing the modern δ18Op. In addition to correlation analyses, a cross‐validated stepwise multiple regression is carried out using δ18Op as the predictand, and topography and atmospheric variables (temperature and precipitation amount) as predictors. The 2 m air temperature and topography yield the highest spatial correlation coefficients of >0.9 and < −0.9, respectively, throughout most of the year. Particularly high correlation coefficients are calculated for the region along the Himalayan orogeny and parts of western China. The predictors explain >90% of the δ18Op spatial variance in the same regions. The 2 m air temperature is the dominant predictor and contributes 93.6% to the total explained spatial variance on average. The results demonstrate that most of the δ18Op pattern on and around the Tibetan Plateau can be explained by variation in 2 m air temperature and altitude. Correlation of the dependent predictors indicate that in low‐altitude regions where topography does not determine temperature variability, the high correlation of temperature and δ18Op may partially be explained by variations in precipitation rates.

SC-ESAP: A Parallel Application Platform for Earth System Model

The earth system model is one of the most complicated computer simulation software in the human development history, which is the basis of understanding and predicting the climate change, and an important tool to support the climate change related decisions. CAS-ESM, Chinese Academy of Science Earth System Model, is developed by the Institute of Atmospheric Physics(IAP) and its cooperators. This system contains the complete components of the climate system and ecological environment system including global atmospheric general circulation model(AGCM), global oceanic general circulation model(OGCM), ice model, land model, atmospheric chemistry model, dynamic global vegetation model(DGVM), ocean biogeochemistry model(OBM) and regional climate model(RCM), etc. Since CAS-ESM is a complex system and is designed as a scalable and pluggable system, a parallel software platform(SC-ESSP) is needed. SC-ESSP will be developed as an open software platform running on Chinese earth system numerical simulation facilities for different developers and users, which requires that the component models need to be standard and unified, and the platform should be pluggable, high performance and easy-to-use. To achieve this goal, based on the platform of Community Earth System Model(CESM), a parallel software application platform named SC-ESAP is designed for CAS-ESM, mainly including compile and run scripts, standard and unified component models, 3-D coupler component, coupler interface creator and some parallel and optimization work. A component framework SC-ESMF will be developed based on the framework SC-Tangram for the more distant future.