Impact of Global Change in Sulfur Dioxide, Black Carbon and Organic Carbon on PM2.5-Related Premature Mortality and Years Life Lost

Abstract

Previous research has highlighted the importance of major atmospheric aerosols such as sulfate, through its precursor sulfur dioxide (SO2), black carbon (BC) and organic carbon (OC), and their effect on global climate regimes, specifically on their impact on particulate matter of size less than or equal to 2.5 micrometers in diameter (PM2.5). Coupled with these global climate simulations, are studies which highlight the negative effects of PM2.5 on human health. Globally, national policies attempt to address the change of these major active aerosols and their impact on PM2.5, which would later on presumably have a cascading effect towards the change of health risks. This study aims to determine how the change in the global anthropogenic aerosol emissions affect health, in particular through the change in attributable mortality (AN) and years of life lost (YLL). Model for Interdisciplinary Research on Climate (MIROC), a global atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) developed by several Japanese institutions, was used to estimate the gridded atmospheric aerosol (SO2, BC, and OC) data for 0.25 by 0.25 degrees. The gridded data were then utilized to estimate the associated cause-specific risks via an integrated exposure response function, and its consequent disease burden, in terms of AN and YLL, per WHO Regions. SEARO and WPRO regions were observed to have apparent variations in AN and YLL with respect to the change in atmospheric aerosols. If atmospheric aerosols were to be reduced, both SEARO and WPRO will have co-benefits (reduced AN) among the cerebrovascular population. On the other hand, if life expectancy were to be considered, co-benefits (reduced YLL) were apparent among acute lower respiratory infection population, for both regions. The changes in the atmospheric aerosols have varying impact on the changes in the disease burden landscape globally, which could translate to varying health-oriented aerosol mitigation policies.