Global Arms Market Research Articles

The policy model for French arms exports

‘This important book provides a comprehensive and much-needed analysis of French defence export policy, the first of its kind in more than 30 years. Lucie Béraud-Sudreau skilfully reconstructs the policy deliberations during the post-Cold War era, in the process shedding light on France's understanding of strategic autonomy. Her book will be essential reading for any observer of French defence policy.’Professor François Heisbourg, Senior Advisor for Europe, IISS‘French Arms Exports: The Business of Sovereignty is poised to become the go-to resource on the contemporary French arms trade. Not since the 1970s has there been such a carefully researched, historically rich and politically knowledgeable book about the French arms trade, and Béraud-Sudreau ably brings us from the Cold War to the modern day, using a wealth of original interview evidence. In doing so, she also offers important insights into the sources of continuity in French arms exports, amidst great political, economic and military change.’Jennifer L. Erickson, author of Dangerous Trade: Arms Exports, Human Rights, and International Reputation and Associate Professor of Political Science at Boston College‘This book is a must-read for anyone who wishes to understand French defence-export policy and its foundation in the broader policy conception of strategic autonomy. Taking a systematic deep dive, Lucie Béraud-Sudreau not only elaborates upon the relevant actors and internal power dynamics in the policy process, she also analyses the changes in policies and outcomes when France had to react to a shifting European and global political and industrial landscape.’Dr Christian Mölling, Deputy Director, German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP)Ever since the establishment of the Fifth Republic in 1958, France has believed its strategic independence to be predicated on self-sufficiency in modern weapons. In order to maintain the requisite defence-industrial base, in the context of limited domestic orders, successive governments have prioritised the export of French arms on a large scale.In this Adelphi book, Lucie Béraud-Sudreau provides a detailed, behind-the-scenes examination of the institutional arrangements that have underpinned France's relatively liberal approach to arms sales over the years. The narrative begins during the Cold War, when France offered customers an alternative to reliance on one of the superpowers for their arms purchases, and then charts how the French arms-export system has responded to international political developments and dramatic changes in the global arms market. The book shows that, in general, France's leaders and machinery of government have been resistant to the notion of restraining arms sales. It also looks to the future, arguing that France now faces a dilemma over whether to maintain its traditional course or accept a greater degree of export restraint as part of closer armaments cooperation with European partners.Lucie Béraud-Sudreau is Senior Researcher and Director of the Arms and Military Expenditure Programme at the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI), Sweden.

Introduction

‘This important book provides a comprehensive and much-needed analysis of French defence export policy, the first of its kind in more than 30 years. Lucie Béraud-Sudreau skilfully reconstructs the policy deliberations during the post-Cold War era, in the process shedding light on France's understanding of strategic autonomy. Her book will be essential reading for any observer of French defence policy.’Professor François Heisbourg, Senior Advisor for Europe, IISS‘French Arms Exports: The Business of Sovereignty is poised to become the go-to resource on the contemporary French arms trade. Not since the 1970s has there been such a carefully researched, historically rich and politically knowledgeable book about the French arms trade, and Béraud-Sudreau ably brings us from the Cold War to the modern day, using a wealth of original interview evidence. In doing so, she also offers important insights into the sources of continuity in French arms exports, amidst great political, economic and military change.’Jennifer L. Erickson, author of Dangerous Trade: Arms Exports, Human Rights, and International Reputation and Associate Professor of Political Science at Boston College‘This book is a must-read for anyone who wishes to understand French defence-export policy and its foundation in the broader policy conception of strategic autonomy. Taking a systematic deep dive, Lucie Béraud-Sudreau not only elaborates upon the relevant actors and internal power dynamics in the policy process, she also analyses the changes in policies and outcomes when France had to react to a shifting European and global political and industrial landscape.’Dr Christian Mölling, Deputy Director, German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP)Ever since the establishment of the Fifth Republic in 1958, France has believed its strategic independence to be predicated on self-sufficiency in modern weapons. In order to maintain the requisite defence-industrial base, in the context of limited domestic orders, successive governments have prioritised the export of French arms on a large scale.In this Adelphi book, Lucie Béraud-Sudreau provides a detailed, behind-the-scenes examination of the institutional arrangements that have underpinned France's relatively liberal approach to arms sales over the years. The narrative begins during the Cold War, when France offered customers an alternative to reliance on one of the superpowers for their arms purchases, and then charts how the French arms-export system has responded to international political developments and dramatic changes in the global arms market. The book shows that, in general, France's leaders and machinery of government have been resistant to the notion of restraining arms sales. It also looks to the future, arguing that France now faces a dilemma over whether to maintain its traditional course or accept a greater degree of export restraint as part of closer armaments cooperation with European partners.Lucie Béraud-Sudreau is Senior Researcher and Director of the Arms and Military Expenditure Programme at the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI), Sweden.

Conclusion

‘This important book provides a comprehensive and much-needed analysis of French defence export policy, the first of its kind in more than 30 years. Lucie Béraud-Sudreau skilfully reconstructs the policy deliberations during the post-Cold War era, in the process shedding light on France's understanding of strategic autonomy. Her book will be essential reading for any observer of French defence policy.’Professor François Heisbourg, Senior Advisor for Europe, IISS‘French Arms Exports: The Business of Sovereignty is poised to become the go-to resource on the contemporary French arms trade. Not since the 1970s has there been such a carefully researched, historically rich and politically knowledgeable book about the French arms trade, and Béraud-Sudreau ably brings us from the Cold War to the modern day, using a wealth of original interview evidence. In doing so, she also offers important insights into the sources of continuity in French arms exports, amidst great political, economic and military change.’Jennifer L. Erickson, author of Dangerous Trade: Arms Exports, Human Rights, and International Reputation and Associate Professor of Political Science at Boston College‘This book is a must-read for anyone who wishes to understand French defence-export policy and its foundation in the broader policy conception of strategic autonomy. Taking a systematic deep dive, Lucie Béraud-Sudreau not only elaborates upon the relevant actors and internal power dynamics in the policy process, she also analyses the changes in policies and outcomes when France had to react to a shifting European and global political and industrial landscape.’Dr Christian Mölling, Deputy Director, German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP)Ever since the establishment of the Fifth Republic in 1958, France has believed its strategic independence to be predicated on self-sufficiency in modern weapons. In order to maintain the requisite defence-industrial base, in the context of limited domestic orders, successive governments have prioritised the export of French arms on a large scale.In this Adelphi book, Lucie Béraud-Sudreau provides a detailed, behind-the-scenes examination of the institutional arrangements that have underpinned France's relatively liberal approach to arms sales over the years. The narrative begins during the Cold War, when France offered customers an alternative to reliance on one of the superpowers for their arms purchases, and then charts how the French arms-export system has responded to international political developments and dramatic changes in the global arms market. The book shows that, in general, France's leaders and machinery of government have been resistant to the notion of restraining arms sales. It also looks to the future, arguing that France now faces a dilemma over whether to maintain its traditional course or accept a greater degree of export restraint as part of closer armaments cooperation with European partners.Lucie Béraud-Sudreau is Senior Researcher and Director of the Arms and Military Expenditure Programme at the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI), Sweden.

“Made in China”: an emerging brand in the global arms market

ABSTRACTPossession of a brand is a sine qua non for economic success, not least because it connotes trust in delivering the value promised. Although Western arms exporters offer branded systems whose sales are influenced by price, there is a plethora of other economic variables, such as offset requirements and life-cycle support. Entrants to the international arms market will struggle without such arms “packages.” China’s entry, however, goes beyond the traditional economic paradigm. A four-stage historical model offers the backdrop for identifying the drivers that have forged its market entry into 55 countries worldwide. The strategy initially focused on sales of rudimentary military equipment for political purposes, but recently it has begun to commercialize exports, repositioning them from a low- to a high-tech sales trajectory. A Sino “brand” is thus emerging, reflecting both competitiveness and diplomatic considerations, especially non-interference in client state domestic affairs.

The evolution of concentration in the arms market

This article examines the evolution of concentration in the global arms market, or industry, over the period 1990-2013 and considers its prospects. Using data from the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) list of the largest 100 arms producing firms, it finds that within the international arms industry, there has been change but also continuity, particularly in the nature of the markets and the relations between the main producers and governments. While the changes that have taken place are important, it is still political rather than economic logic that shapes the evolution of the market. Certainly the arms industry remains relatively unconcentrated compared to other industries probably because of the domestic preferences in procurement by national governments. Countries do not like monopoly arms producers, but there is no western country other than the United States that can currently support more than one competitor, although in the near future Russia could and China may provide serious international competition to the U.S. What is clear is that there are economic forces pushing for increased competition, but the final outcome will be determined by political forces, and transparency and governance will become increasingly important issues.

Keeping the Germans Out of the Straits: The Five Ottoman Dreadnought Thesis Reconsidered

This article contests Sean McMeekin’s claims concerning Russian culpability for the First World War. McMeekin maintains that Ottoman rearmament, particularly the purchase of several battleships released onto the global arms market by South American states, threatened to create a situation where the Russian Black Sea Fleet would be outclassed by its Ottoman opposite number. Rather than waiting for this to happen, the tsarist regime chose to go to war. Yet, contrary to McMeekin’s claims, the Ottoman naval expansion never assumed threatening dimensions because the Porte was unable to purchase battleships from Chile or Argentina. As a result, it provided no incentive for Russia to go to war in 1914.

The 1964 Israeli Airlift to Yemen and the Expansion of Weapons Diplomacy

Based on oral history accounts of surviving members of Israel[#x02019]s first International Squadron and organisers of the military airlift to Yemen in 1964, this analysis examines the origins of the squadron, its mission to Yemen, and its impact on Israeli foreign policy in Africa. The founding of the International Squadron in 1963 incorporated the Boeing 377 Stratocruiser into the Israeli air force and gave the military and Foreign Ministry the country[#x02019]s first long-distance transport capability. The initial successful military airlift to Yemen in May 1964 opened the possibility for additional clandestine military aid missions to sub-Saharan Africa and Kurdistan and marked the beginning of an era of Israeli [#x0201C]weapons diplomacy.[#x0201D] The Squadron[#x02019]s incorporation of more advanced transport planes during the 1970s presented the Foreign Ministry with the capability of reaching Latin America and Asia, an essential factor in Israel[#x02019]s expanding global arms market and later humanitarian missions.

I. North Korea in the Global Arms Market

North Korea has been an important player in the global arms market for over fifty years, during which time it has exported military goods and services to clients around the world. During the Cold W...

A Formal Model of Arms Market with Cash-for-Favours

AbstractBoth corruption and market imperfections are important facets of modern arms markets. In the standard literature of arms market, production, procurement, sales (exports) and purchases (imports) of arms take place in the shadow of corruption. Corruption is an integral part of the environment of the arms trade that exerts an influence upon the outcome in the arms market. In our work, we make corruption as a choice variable of the powerful players in the global arms market and examine the equilibrium consequence of corruption that is strategically chosen by armament firms. We develop a simple duopoly to characterize a perfect Nash equilibrium of cash-for-favors and establish perplexing comparative static properties of this equilibrium. The primary intuition here is that cash-for-favors can have serious impacts on the equilibrium of an oligopoly through their effects on the incentives of and constraints on individual firms. We offer a model of endogenous corruption, to our understanding for the first time, to examine the global arms market in order to establish that the equilibrium outcome in the arms market cannot be fully captured by the standard results of oligopoly. Researchers have to extremely careful in applying the standard tools of oligopoly to the arms market as our results suggest that endogenous corruption can reverse most of the known results of oligopoly.

The Case Against a U.S.-Arms Monopoly

The U.S. government is the dominant player in the global arms market. An existing literature emphasizes the many benefits of an international U.S.-government arms monopoly including: regional and global balance, stability and security, the advancement of U.S. national interests, and domestic economic benefits from international sales. The purpose of this paper is to balance this largely one-sided treatment of the U.S. government’s dominant position in the international arms market. We discuss several negative consequences and costs associated with U.S. arms sales which call into question the net benefit of the U.S. government’s control over global arms.

Russia's comeback to the arms market: a strategic choice

The return of Russia as the main player in the global arms market presents specific features, by arms type and region. It also illustrates, beyond the revival of state control of strategic industries, a key element in its new foreign policy. This is in phase with the desire of various countries to assert greater military autonomy in front of the perceived dangers of US unilateralist posturing.

The North‐South Divide in the UK Defence Sector

BISHOP P. and WISEMAN N. (1999) The north-south divide in the UK defence sector, Reg. Studies 33 , 829-841. This paper examines some of the key characteristics of the north-south divide in the UK defence sector. The analysis is based on new data derived from a national questionnaire survey of major defence contractors. Particular attention is devoted to analysis of spatial differences in high technology employment, R&D activity, involvement in overseas markets and civilian diversification. The study concludes that, whilst there is evidence of a domestic spatial divide in the defence sector, the location of the industry is increasingly likely to be affected by developments in the global arms market. BISHOP P. et WISEMAN N. (1999) Le clivage nord‐sud dans le secteur de la défense au Royaume-Uni, Reg. Studies 33 , 829-841. Cet article cherche à examiner quelques-unes des caractéristiques essentielles du clivage nord-sud du secteur de la défense. L'analyse est fondée sur de nouvelles données qui proviennent d'une étude établiè a partir d'un questionnaire auprès des principaux fournisseurs de l'armée. On prête une attention particulièrè a une analyse des écarts géographiques de l'emploi dans les secteurs à la pointe de la technologie, la R et D, les relations commerciales extérieures et la diversification civile. Bien qu'on puisse faire preuve d'un clivage géographique intérieur dans le secteur de la défense, l'étude affirme en guise de conclusion qu'il est de plus en plus probable que l'évolution du marché d'armements international va influer sur la localisation de l'industrie. BISHOP P. und WISEMAN N. (1999) Die Nord-Südscheide in der britischen Verteidigungsindustrie, Reg. Studies 33 , 829-841. Dieser Aufsatz untersucht einige der Hauptmerkmale der Nord-Südscheide in der Verteidigungsindustrie des Vereinigten Königreichs. Die Analyse stützt sich auf neue Daten, die von einer landesweit durchgeführten Fragebogenumfrage bedeutender Verteidigungsauftraggeber abgeleitet wurde. Besondere Aufmerksamkeit wird der Analyse räumlicher Unterschiede in der Beschäftigungslage in der Hochtechnologie, in Forschung und Entwicklung, in Beteiligung am Überseemarkt und Diversifikation für Zivilzwecke gewidmet. Die Studie folgert, daß, obschon es in Irland Anzeichen räumlicher Trennung in der Verteidigungsindustrie gibt, ihr Standort mit zunehmender Wahrscheinlichkeit von Entwicklungen im globalen Waffenmarkt beeinflußt wird.

South Asia and the Politics of Non-Proliferation

National power is inherent in the system of independent states, and military force is inherent in national power. In influencing the rise, fall, and hierarchy of states, force is the decisive element in the structure of any given international system. Thus, military power will remain a prominent feature of international relations. There is a very real risk, however, that the pursuit of national security through a strategy of self-help will produce regional and international insecurity as a result of a process of competitive rivalry and the build-up of arms. Thus we have a paradox: international realities compel us to look to our own forces or risk becoming the victims of others'; but the unchecked proliferation of arms and weapons systems will degrade everyone's security.Arms control refers to efforts to constrain reciprocal threats from unchecked build-up of arms through formally negotiated agreements or tacit understandings on restraints on numbers, types, and deployments of weapon systems. Proliferation refers to the dispersion of weapons, capabilities, and technologies. Weapons can be sought for one or more of six reasons: deterring enemy attack, defending against attack, compelling the enemy to one's preferred course of action, leveraging adversary and great-power behaviour, status, and emulation. Specific causes of proliferation are many, diverse, and usually rooted in a local security complex. On the supply side, a major emerging proliferation challenge is the globalization of the arms industry, the flooding of the global arms market, and a resulting loosening of supplier constraints.The nuclear arms control agenda has three inter-linked components: non-proliferation, arms control (for example de-alerting and de-mating), and disarmament (the partial, limited, or total abolition of nuclear weapons). Some states focus solely on disarmament as the most urgent task in order to camouflage their own proliferation agendas. Others focus on non-proliferation as the immediate and most urgent priority in order to evade their responsibility for disarmament within a foreseeable time frame. Both invoke arms control as a refuge from calls for non-proliferation and disarmament and to obfuscate rather than clarify, let alone advance, the agenda. Both also seek to appropriate the mantle of the 'international community' to their respective though competing points of view. In fact, the closest and most substantial articulation of the point of view of the international community can be found in the 'Principles and Objectives for Non-Proliferation and Disarmament' adopted by the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) Review and Extension Conference in 1995.The barriers against the acquisition, spread, and use of nuclear weapons include legal conventions, norms, and the fact that they have not been used in over fifty years. Safeguards and export restraints do not amount to non-proliferation, which is essentially a political goal requiring political judgment on the part of a given government that, on balance, nuclear weapons do not serve its interests. Before the key problem states can be persuaded to move to a non-nuclear weapons status they have to be convinced that the balance of advantage lies with forswearing the nuclear option. This necessarily includes not just the national security calculus, but also the internal political constellation. In this article, I hold in abeyance strategic arguments in favour of or against the overt nuclear weapons status of India and Pakistan(f.1) and focus instead on the politics of the debate. For in the decision to weaponize, politics was always in command.OF NORMS AND REGIMESNorms, not deterrence, have anathematized the use of nuclear weapons as unacceptable, immoral, and possibly illegal under any circumstance - even for states that have assimilated them into military arsenals and integrated them into military commands and doctrines. There have been many occasions since 1945 when nuclear weapons could have been used without fear of retaliation but were not, even at the price of defeat on the battlefield (the United States in Vietnam, the Soviet Union in Afghanistan, for example). …

The Global Arms Market after the Gulf War: Prospects for Control

The Global Arms Market after the Gulf War: Prospects for Control

American Arms Supermarket.

* Acknowledgments *1. The Global Arms Market: A Briefing on the Arms Trade *2. Primal Motives: The Political Economy of Arms Sales *3. The Evolution of Doctrine: U.S. Arms Export Policy from Kennedy to Reagan *4. The Implementation of Policy: Arms Export Decisionmaking *5. The Limits of Policy: U.S. Arms Exports to Latin America *6. Arms and the Shah: The Rise and Fall of the Surrogate Strategy *7. After the Shah: U.S. Arms Sales to the Middle East in the 1980s *8. Coproduction and Licensing: The Export of America's Arms-Making Technology *9. Arms Sales and Human Rights: The Merchants of Repression *10. A Look at the Competition: Soviet and European Arms Sales to the Third World *11. Promoting Global Stability: An Alternative Policy Framework * Appendix 1. U.S. Military Exports by sProgram, Fiscal 1950-82 * Appendix 2. U.S. Arms Transfers to Third World Police Forces by Country, September 1976-May 1979 * Notes * Selected Bibliography * Index