Glacier Volume Research Articles

Segmentation of Glacier Area Using U-Net through Landsat Satellite Imagery for Quantification of Glacier Recession and Its Impact on Marine Systems

Glaciers have experienced a global trend of recession within the past century. Quantification of glacier variations using satellite imagery has been of great interest due to the importance of glaciers as freshwater resources and as indicators of climate change. Spatiotemporal glacier dynamics must be monitored to quantify glacier variations. The potential methods to quantify spatiotemporal glacier dynamics with increasing complexity levels include detecting the terminus location, measuring the length of the glacier from the accumulation zone to the terminus, quantifying the glacier surface area, and measuring glacier volume. Although some deep learning methods designed purposefully for glacier boundary segmentation have achieved acceptable results, these models are often localized to the region where their training data were acquired and further rely on the training sets that were often curated manually to highlight glacial regions. Due to the very large number of glaciers, it is practically impossible to perform a worldwide study of glacier dynamics using manual methods. As a result, an automated or semi-automated method is highly desirable. The current study has built upon our previous works moving towards identification methods of the 2D glacier profile for glacier area segmentation. In this study, a deep learning method is proposed for segmentation of temporal Landsat images to quantify the glacial region within the Mount Cook/Aoraki massif located in the Southern Alps/Kā Tiritiri o te Moana of New Zealand/Aotearoa. Segmented glacial regions can be further utilized to determine the relationship of their variations due to climate change. This model has demonstrated promising performance while trained on a relatively small dataset. The permanent ice and snow class was accurately segmented at a 92% rate by the proposed model.

Glacier Volume Estimation Using the Glaptop Model in the Cordillera Blanca of Peru

The spatial retreat of glaciers located in the Peruvian Andes is closely linked to global climate change. The glaciers of the Checquiaraju micro-basin of the Cordillera Blanca are the main sources of water for the Andean zone; however, they have been suffering an accelerated space retreat. Remote sensing and geographic information systems (GIS) techniques have been applied to estimate the variation in glacier area and volume from LANDSAT 5 images. Glacier area and volume results are correlated with normalized difference snow index (NDSI) data to discriminate the snow cover from the rest of the elements in the image through the digital numbers (DN) of two bands: the TM blue band and shortwave infrared. The glacial zone was separated from the non-glacial zone for a better fit with the glacier limits seen in the composite color image. Subsequently, the delimitation of the glacier cover was refined through supervised classification, and finally, the determination of the volume of the glacier was estimated using the Glabtop model. The evolution of the glacier area of the Checquiaraju micro-basin tends to retreat. In the period 1989–2004, the glacier area of the study area decreased by 0.44 km2 (representing 11.3% of the glacier area in 1989), considering a rate of decrease of 0.0275 km2/year, which shows the retreat of glaciers in the area, which is a source of supply. Keywords: Checquiaraju, SIG, LANDSAT 5, NDSI, Glabtop. Resumen El retroceso espacial de los glaciares ubicados en los Andes peruanos está estrechamente vinculado al cambio climático global. Los glaciares de la microcuenca de Checquiaraju de la Cordillera Blanca son una fuente de agua muy importante para la zona andina; pero ellos vienen sufriendo un retroceso espacial acelerado. Se ha aplicado las técnicas de la Teledetección y Sistemas de Información Geográfica (SIG) para estimar la variación del área y volumen glaciar a partir de imágenes LANDSAT 5. Los resultados de área y volumen glaciar se correlacionan con datos de NDSI (Normalized Difference Snow Index) para discriminar la cobertura nival del resto de los elementos en la imagen, a través de los números digitales (DN) de dos bandas TM banda en azul e infrarroja de onda corta. Se separó la zona glaciar de la zona no – glaciar para un mejor ajuste con los límites de glaciar visto en la imagen de color compuesta. Posterior se refinó la delimitación de la cobertura glaciar a través de la clasificación supervisada y finalmente la determinación del volumen del glaciar se estimó mediante el modelo Glabtop. La evolución del área glaciar de la microcuenca de Checquiaraju tiene una tendencia al retroceso. En el periodo 1989 – 2004, el área glaciar de la zona de estudio se redujo 0,44 km2 (lo que representa el 11,3 % del área glaciar en 1989), considerando una tasa de disminución de 0,0275 km2/año, lo que evidencia el retroceso de los glaciares en la zona, la cual es fuente de abastecimiento. Palabras Clave: Checquiaraju, SIG, LANDSAT 5, NDSI, Glabtop.

Microplastics in glaciers of Tibetan Plateau: Characteristics and potential sources

Microplastics (MPs) in glaciers of remote areas are a hot topic linking the global transport of atmospheric MPs. The Tibetan Plateau (TP) holds large volume of glaciers, providing an effective way to trace MPs transport. Moreover, MPs in glaciers may have adverse effects on the local ecosystem and human health. In this study, we investigate MPs in snowpits collected from six glaciers across the different domain of the TP. The average abundance of MPs in six snowpits is 339.22 ± 51.85 items L−1 (with size ≥10 μm) measured by Agilent 8700 Laser Direct Infrared Chemical Imaging System (LDIR), represented by relatively high MPs abundance in the southern TP and low in the northern TP. The polymers with lower density, namely polyethylene (PE), polyamide (PA), and rubber, are the main MPs types, which are predominated by fragments with sizes smaller than 100 μm in each snowpit. Sources of MPs on glaciers include local tourism and vehicle traffic emissions of MPs. Meanwhile, long-range atmospheric transport of MPs from surrounded regions cannot be ignored. Backward trajectory analysis indicates cross-boundary transport of atmospheric MPs from South Asia play an important role on MPs deposited onto TP glaciers. Analysis further reveals that MPs in glaciers are associated with atmospheric mineral dust deposition. This study provides new data for the investigation of MPs in glaciers of remote areas, and a reference for studying MPs in the ice cores of TP glaciers.

Accelerated warming of High Mountain Asia predicted at multiple years ahead

High-Mountain Asia (HMA) is an important source of freshwater since it holds the largest reservoir of frozen water outside the polar regions. HMA feeds ten great rivers, ultimately supporting more than 2 billion people. However, the threat of accelerated glacier melt, which is a consequence of unprecedented global warming since the early 1950s, threatens water resources in the surrounding countries. Accurate predictions of the near-term temperature change and synergistic mass loss of glaciers are essential but challenging to implement because of the impacts of internal climate variability. Here, based on large ensembles of state-of-the-art decadal climate prediction experiments, we provide evidence that the internally generated surface air temperature variations in HMA can be predicted multiple years in advance, and the model initialization has robust added value to the decadal prediction skill. Real-time decadal forecasts suggest that the HMA will experience accelerated warming in 2025–2032, where the surface warming will increase by 0.98 °C (0.67 to 1.33 °C; 5 % to 95 % range) relative to the reference period 1991–2020, which is equivalent to 1.75 times the observed warming during 2016–2023. The decadal predictability originates from extratropical Pacific decadal variability modes, which modulate the convective heating in the tropical Pacific and influence HMA via the eastward-propagating atmospheric Kelvin waves. Accelerated warming in the coming decade will likely increase the shrinkage of the glacier volume over the HMA by 1.4 %. This change poses unprecedented challenges, including potential water scarcity, ecosystem disruption, and increased risk of natural disasters, to HMA and surrounding regions.

Accelerating glacier volume loss on Juneau Icefield driven by hypsometry and melt-accelerating feedbacks

Globally, glaciers and icefields contribute significantly to sea level rise. Here we show that ice loss from Juneau Icefield, a plateau icefield in Alaska, accelerated after 2005 AD. Rates of area shrinkage were 5 times faster from 2015–2019 than from 1979–1990. Glacier volume loss remained fairly consistent (0.65–1.01 km3 a−1) from 1770–1979 AD, rising to 3.08–3.72 km3 a−1 from 1979–2010, and then doubling after 2010 AD, reaching 5.91 ± 0.80 km3 a−1 (2010–2020). Thinning has become pervasive across the icefield plateau since 2005, accompanied by glacier recession and fragmentation. Rising equilibrium line altitudes and increasing ablation across the plateau has driven a series of hypsometrically controlled melt-accelerating feedbacks and resulted in the observed acceleration in mass loss. As glacier thinning on the plateau continues, a mass balance-elevation feedback is likely to inhibit future glacier regrowth, potentially pushing glaciers beyond a dynamic tipping point.

Assessment of methods for reconstructing Little Ice Age glacier surfaces on the examples of Novaya Zemlya and the Swiss Alps

Climate change since the end of the Little Ice Age (LIA) has driven observed glacier volume loss, significantly contributing to the rise of global sea level. The related calculation of volume change requires knowledge of glacier surfaces from at least two points in time, usually represented by two digital elevation models (DEMs). These are typically derived from photogrammetric techniques using stereo images, but such images do not go back to the LIA. Accordingly, several techniques have been developed to reconstruct LIA glacier surfaces from historic outlines and modern DEMs. Here we first evaluate various surface interpolation methods by replicating modern glacier surfaces from outline elevation points and analyse elevation differences and uncertainties. Secondly, we investigate different GIS-based methods for LIA surface reconstruction including a new method that is based on up-scaling of recent glacier-specific elevation change data and works also for ice caps without lateral moraines. The methods were tested on 90 glaciers (covering 643 km2) in southern Novaya Zemlya and 266 glaciers (524 km2) in the Bernese Alps of Switzerland. As in previous studies, we also found that the Natural Neighbor and Topo to Raster interpolation methods in ESRI's ArcGIS performed best for glacier surface reconstruction and that all methods are challenged by replicating the variable surface curvature of glaciers. The new reconstruction method shows the smallest mean difference to the reference dataset (RMSE of 26.7 vs. 39.8 m). The often neglected small surface lowering in the accumulation area can increase the derived glacier volume changes by 30–50 % and should thus be considered whenever possible. Applying the up-scaling method to both test regions revealed that elevation change rates over the last two decades (−0.8 m a−1 for Novaya Zemlya and -1.14 m a−1 for the Bernese Alps) were much higher than from 1850 until today (−0.13 m a−1 and -0.22 m a−1, respectively).

Observing changes in the present and paleo-glacial extents of major glaciers in the Alaknanda Basin of Central Himalaya

The erosional and depositional landforms modified by the glaciers can be used effectively to reconstruct the palaeo-glacial events along with dating techniques. In this study, a detailed reconstruction of the Satopanth Glacier (SPG), Bhagirath Kharak Glacier (BKG), and Bhagnyu Glacier (BG) in the Alaknanda Basin of Central Himalaya is carried out using glacier morphological features identified from a comprehensive dataset that includes historic toposheets (1882–1962), satellite images (1968–2020), and field observations (2019 & 2020). We also compute paleo, contemporary ice thickness, and glacier volumes using the Glacier Reconstructio (GlaRe) and the Himalayan Glacier Thickness Mapper (HIGTHIM) tools, respectively. Our results demonstrate that the region has witnessed three major glacial advances: Stage I (oldest), Stage II, and Stage III glaciations. The SPG, BKG, and BG were tributaries of a primary primitive glacier that existed during the Stage I glaciation that extended to the Mana village. The Stage I glacial moraines are at a distance of 8.4 ± 1.1 km, 7.8 ± 1 km, and 8.4 ± 1.1 km from the present-day snout of SPG, BKG, BG, while the Stage II moraines are 5.1 ± 0.71 km, 4.2 ± 0.58 km, and 5 ± 0.7 km away, and Stage III moraines are 1.9 ± 0.26 km, 1.3 ± 0.18 km, and 2.8 ± 0.39 km away, respectively. The area of the primitive glacier reduced (Stage I to the recent period) from 78 ± 4.6 km2 to 60 ± 3.6 km2 with a volume reduction from 4.7 ± 0.94 km3 to 3.5 ± 0.63 km3. Most importantly, the rate of recession of the glaciers in the Alaknanda Basin is more in the last 5 decades ∼(8.4 ± 1.1 m a−1 (SPG), 7.2 ± 1 m a−1 (BKG), 10 ± 1.4 m a−1 (BG)) than that reported over the last 12,000 years, which is ∼0.42 m a−1 (SPG), 0.35 m a−1 (BKG), 0.42 m a−1 (BG). The present study provides a detailed characterization of the long-term evolution of glaciers in the Alaknanda Basin for the first time.

Ensemble modelling of ice volume dynamics of Chhota Shigri Glacier in Himachal Pradesh from 2017 to 2022

ABSTRACT Glaciers are the source of freshwater for many perennial rivers around the world. Out of 215,000 glaciers apart from the polar ice sheets, the Himalayas constitute about 54,000 glaciers and are often referred to as the third pole on the Earth. In recent decades, the Himalayan glaciers have been experiencing increased recession as a consequence of climate change. Subsequently, understanding the dynamics of glacier ice parameters and volume becomes significant. In this study, an ensemble model of laminar-flow-based and basal-shear-stress-based models on the Chhota Shigri Glacier was investigated to understand the dynamics of glacier ice thickness over six years, from 2017 to 2022. The glacier volume was determined from the ensembled ice thickness. Our results indicate that the ensemble model yields the minimum ice thickness measurement of 102 ± 17.38 m and the maximum of 112 ± 19.04 m for the years 2017 and 2019, respectively. The estimated results show a correlation of 81% with a global ice thickness dataset. The ensemble approach provides better estimates for ice thickness accounting for more parameters affecting the glacier dynamics. From 2017 to 2022, the Chhota Shigri Glacier volume has been observed to show a slightly negative trend.

Hydrological response of Andean catchments to recent glacier mass loss

Abstract. The impacts of the accelerated glacier retreat in recent decades on glacier runoff changes are still unknown in most Andean catchments, increasing uncertainties in estimating water availability. This particularly affects the outer tropics and Dry Andes, heavily impacted by prolonged droughts. Current global estimates overlook climatic and morphometric disparities, which significantly influence model parameters, among Andean glaciers. Meanwhile, local studies have used different approaches to estimate glacier runoff in a few catchments. Improving 21st-century glacier runoff projections relies on calibrating and validating models using corrected historical climate inputs and calibrated parameters across diverse glaciological zones. Here, we simulate glacier evolution and related runoff changes between the periods 2000–2009 and 2010–2019 across 786 Andean catchments (11 282 km2 of glacierized area, 11° N to 55° S) using the Open Global Glacier Model (OGGM). TerraClimate atmospheric variables were corrected using in situ data, getting a mean temperature bias by up to 2.1 °C and enhanced monthly precipitation. Glacier mass balance and volume were calibrated, where melt factor and the Glen A parameter exhibited significant alignment with varying environmental conditions. Simulation outcomes were validated against in situ data in three documented catchments (with a glacierized area > 8 %) and monitored glaciers. Our results at the Andes scale reveal an average reduction of 8.3 % in glacier volume and a decrease of 2.2 % in surface area between the periods 2000–2009 and 2010–2019. Comparing these two periods, glacier and climate variations have led to a 12 % increase in mean annual glacier melt (86.5 m3 s−1) and a decrease in rainfall on glaciers of −2 % (−7.6 m3 s−1) across the Andes, with both variables comprising the glacier runoff. We confirmed the utility of our corrected regional simulations of glacier runoff contribution at the catchment scale, where our estimations align with previous studies (e.g., Maipo 34° S, Chile) as well as provide new insights on the seasonal glaciers' largest contribution (e.g., La Paz 16° S, Bolivia) and new estimates of glacier runoff contribution (e.g., Baker 47° S, Chile).

Acceleration of Abramov Glacier (Pamir‐Alay) retreat since the Little Ice Age

The Koksu River valley is located in the Pamir‐Alay mountain range and contains 25 glaciers larger than 1 km2 and numerous smaller glaciers. The largest glacier in the catchment is Abramov Glacier with a current surface area of 22.55 km2 (in 2022), which was extensively monitored between 1965 and 1999, and resumed in 2011. The long and detailed mass balance time series provide, among other information, benchmark climate variables for the Pamir‐Alay range. We report 10 new cosmogenic 10Be exposure dates of glacial moraines directly deposited by Abramov Glacier to extend the glacial history of the valley. Six boulders indicate that the Local Last Glacial Maximum occurred at 17.1±1.0 ka. Four boulders suggest a Little Ice Age (LIA) glacial advance around AD 1750. Secular glacier mass balance reconstructions suggest a progressively negative mass balance since the LIA advance. The decrease in mass balance accelerated in the last quarter of the 20th century. Results from repeated ground penetrating radar (GPR) measurements suggest that Abramov Glacier lost about 403 million m3 of ice volume between 1986 and 2018. Based on the reconstruction of the glacier surface, the corresponding equilibrium line altitude, which is closely correlated with the mass balance, increased by about 70 to 80 m during this period. Our results also suggest that Abramov Glacier has become increasingly out of equilibrium with the climate over the last two decades. This is supported by repeated GPR measurements of the tongue area, which indicate a dramatic decrease in glacier area and ice volume over the period 1986–2018.

A warming-induced glacier reduction causes lower streamflow in the upper Tarim River Basin

Study areaThree headwater basins of the Tarim River Study focusThis study built upon existing knowledge by incorporating threshold melting temperatures into the Spatial Processes in Hydrology (SPHY) model and decomposing the streamflow changes into individual runoff components. Additional glacier retreat rate data were used to calibrate the improved SPHY, which provides better constrained estimates of glacier response to climate change. We employed bias-corrected simulations from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) models to drive the improved SPHY under four future scenarios (SSP1–2.6, SSP2–4.5, SSP3–7.0, and SSP5–8.5). New hydrological insights for the regionModeling results show accelerated glacier melt in the future, with glacier volume at the end of this century projected to be less than 20% of the current level under SSP5–8.5. Furthermore, future streamflow is expected to decrease, most notably in the Karakash River basin under the SSP1–2.6 scenario. The reduction in streamflow, mainly during the summer months, results from decreased glacier melt runoff, which cannot be offset by increased rainfall runoff. Additionally, the implementation of climate change mitigation measures could delay glacier loss, but the dominant component of runoff would still shift from current glacier melt to future rainfall. Plain language summaryGlobal warming accelerates the hydrological cycle, altering the temporal and spatial patterns of streamflow, especially in cold regions, such as the Tarim River Basin. Understanding future streamflow changes is important for the economic development and ecological protection of this region, which will help to manage the risk of water shortages and to plan engineering works to mitigate water shortage crises. We therefore used state-of-the-art climate simulation to project future streamflow changes over three basins of the Upper Tarim River. We found that under all future scenarios, runoff will decrease in these basins. This decrease is mainly due to glacier retreat and cannot be mitigated by anticipated increases in rainfall in the future.

The 1980 Aparejo Glacier catastrophic detachment: new insights and current status

The catastrophic detachment of Aparejo Glacier (one of the three known cases in the Andes) took place on 1 March 1980 and resulted in the removal of an ice volume initially estimated to be 7.2 Mm3, which originally was 1.0 km long and covered an area of 0.2 km2. The event caused the sudden mobilization of the sliding mass 3.7 km down valley at an estimated speed of 110 km/h, causing remarkable geomorphological changes, including the obliteration of most of the glacier. 40 years after the event, we analyze new evidence: 3 ground surveys carried out in 2015 and 2016; DEMs and glacier outlines compiled from orthorectified aerial imagery pre-and post-event; GNSS data; Ground Penetrating Radar (GPR) data; a terrestrial LiDAR scan survey of 2020, together with detailed interviews with 2 direct witnesses of the event, terrestrial and helicopter-borne photographs acquired 12 days after the sudden detachment. The combined interpretation of these new data, allow us to make a more precise estimation of the pre-detachment glacier volume, 12.9 ± 0.6 × 106 m3 and the detached ice volume of 11.7 ± 0.6 × 106 m3 (90% of the total volume of the glacier). We also show that in the 40-year period Aparejo Glacier has recovered 12.4% of the original glacier volume, with a mean ice thickness of 19.5 m and a maximum of 40 m according to GPR data, being preserved within the same basin as the detached glacier. In recent years, the glacier has shown a mean elevation change of −3.7 ± 1.2 m during the 2015–2020 period, with maximum thinning values greater than 8 m, which are probably caused by enhanced ablation due to climate warming and reduced precipitation during the current megadrought which started in 2010 and has lasted more than 1 decade. We conclude that under the projected scenarios of climate warming and reduced precipitation for central Chile, the risk associated to a new detachment of Aparejo Glacier is unlikely.

Rock Glacier Movement and Debris Transport Over Annual to Multi‐Millennial Timescales

AbstractRock glaciers are common in alpine landscapes, but their evolution over time and their significance as agents of debris transport are not well‐understood. Here, we assess the movement of an ice‐cemented rock glacier over a range of timescales using GPS surveying, satellite‐based radar, and cosmogenic 10Be surface‐exposure dating. GPS and InSAR measurements indicate that the rock glacier moved at an average rate of ∼10 cm yr−1 in recent years. Sampled boulders on the rock glacier have cosmogenic surface‐exposure ages from 1.2 to 10 ka, indicating that they have been exposed since the beginning of the Holocene. Exposure ages increase linearly with distance downslope, suggesting a slower long‐term mean surface velocity of 3 ± 0.3 cm yr−1. Our findings suggest that the behavior of this rock glacier may be dominated by episodes of dormancy punctuated by intervals of relatively rapid movement over both short and long timescales. Our findings also show that the volume of the rock glacier corresponds to ∼10 m of material stripped from the headwall during the Holocene. These are the first cosmogenic surface‐exposure ages to constrain movement of a North American rock glacier, and together with the GPS and satellite radar measurements, they reveal that rock glaciers are effective geomorphic agents with dynamic multi‐millennial histories.

Ice volume and thickness of all Scandinavian glaciers and ice caps

Abstract We present a new map of bed topography and ice thickness together with a corresponding ice volume estimate representative of the years ~2010 for all Scandinavian ice caps and glaciers. Starting from surface observations, we invert for ice thickness by iteratively running an innovative ice dynamics model on a distributed grid and updating bed topography until modelled and observed glacier dynamics as represented by their rate of surface elevation change (dh/dt) fields align. The ice flow model used is the instructed glacier model (Jouvet and Cordonnier, 2023, Journal of Glaciology 1–15), a generic physics-informed deep-learning emulator that models higher-order ice flow with high-computational efficiency. We calibrate the modelled thicknesses against >11 000 ice thickness observations, resulting in a final ice volume estimate of 302.7 km3 for Norway, 18.4 km3 for Sweden and 321.1 km3 for the whole of Scandinavia with an error estimate of ~ $\pm 11\%$ . The validation statistics computed indicate good agreement between modelled and observed thicknesses (RMSE = 55 m, Pearson's r = 0.87, bias = 0.8 m), outperforming all other ice thickness maps available for the region. The modelled bed shapes thus provide unprecedented detail in the subglacial topography, especially for ice caps where we produce the first maps that show ice-dynamically realistic flow features.

Characterization of a Deglaciated Sediment Chronosequence in the High Arctic Using Near‐Surface Geoelectrical Monitoring Methods

ABSTRACTAccelerated climate warming is causing significant reductions in the volume of Arctic glaciers, such that previously ice‐capped bare ground is uncovered, harboring soil development. Monitoring the thermal and hydrologic characteristics of soils, which strongly affect microbial activity, is important to understand the evolution of emerging terrestrial landscapes. We instrumented two sites on the forefield of a retreating Svalbard glacier, representing sediment ages of approximately 5 and 60 years since exposure. Our instrumentation included an ERT array complemented by adjacent point sensor measurements of subsurface temperature and water content. Sediments were sampled at each location and at two more additional sites (120 and 2000 years old) along a chronosequence aligned with the direction of glacial retreat. Analysis suggests older sediments have a lower bulk density and contain fewer large minerals, which we interpret to be indicative of sediment reworking over time. Two months of monitoring data recorded during summer 2021 indicate that the 60‐year‐old sediments are stratified showing more spatially consistent changes in electrical resistivity, whereas the younger sediments show a more irregular structure, with consequences on heat and moisture conductibility. Furthermore, our sensors reveal that young sediments have a higher moisture content, but a lower moisture content variability.

Annual velocities of the ablation zone of Panchi Nala Glacier, western Himalaya: Trends and controlling factors

Information on the glacier velocity is imperative to understand the glacier ice volume, supraglacial feature evolution and glacier-climate interaction. The present study investigates annual velocities of the ablation zone (∼4500–4800 m asl) of Panchi Nala Glacier, western Himalaya through feature tracking. For this, multi-temporal Landsat (TM and OLI) and Sentinel −2 MSI images, acquired between 2000 and 2021, were correlated using the Co-registration of Optically Sensed Images and Correlation (COSI-Corr) tool. Results reveal a mean velocity of the ablation zone to be 10.6 ± 5.6 m/y during 2000–2021, with the highest (13.8 ± 4.6 m/y) and lowest velocity (8.9 ± 2.8 m/y) observed in 2005 and 2015, respectively. There is no significant trend in the velocity, rather it is highly heterogeneous on the inter-annual scale. Further, the influence of several factors such as slope, debris cover, altitude, annual average temperature and precipitation on the glacier velocity was investigated. Results indicate that the inter-annual heterogeneity in velocity is inversely correlated with the variation of summer precipitation implying that an increase in summer precipitation decreases the glacier velocity. The spatio-temporal velocity variations are also linked with the presence of supraglacial ponds, ice cliffs and heterogeneous debris distribution over the glacier. Findings indicate that, though annual glacier velocities have not changed significantly, their magnitudes are consistently low which coupled with consistent debris increase (19.74%) and gentle slope (8.2° over ablation zone) can promote rapid growth of supraglacial ponds and ice cliffs.

A Geodetic-Data-Calibrated Ice Flow Model to Simulate Historical and Future Response of Glaciers in Southeastern Tibetan Plateau

Glaciers play a vital role in the Asian mountain water towers and have significant downstream impacts on domestic, agricultural, and industrial water usage. The rate of glacier mass loss in the Southeastern Tibetan Plateau (SETP) is among the highest in Asia and has intensified in recent decades. However, a comprehensive quantification that considers both spatial and temporal aspects of glacier mass loss across the entire SETP is still insufficient. This study aimed to address this gap by utilizing geodetic datasets specific to each glacier by calibrating the Open Global Glacier Model (OGGM) driven by HAR v2 and reconstructing the glacier mass balance of 7756 glaciers in the SETP from 1980 to 2019 while examining their spatial variability. The findings reveal that the average mass balance during this period was −0.50 ± 0.28 m w.e. a−1, with an accelerated loss observed in the 2000s (average: 0.62 ± 0.24 m w.e. a−1). Notably, central glaciers in the SETP exhibited relatively smaller mass loss, indicating a gradient effect of increased loss from the central region toward the eastern and western sides. By the end of this century, the area, length, and volume of glaciers in the entire SETP region are projected to decrease by 83.57 ± 4.91%, 90.25 ± 4.23%, and 88.04 ± 4.52%, respectively. Moreover, the SETP glacier melt runoff is estimated to decrease by 62.63 ± 6.16% toward the end of the century, with the “peak water” point of glacier melt runoff predicted to occur in 2023 under the SSP585 scenario. Sensitivity experiments demonstrated that the SETP glaciers are more than three times more sensitive to temperature changes than to precipitation variations, and the observed decrease in monsoon precipitation indicates the weakening magnitude of the Indian summer monsoon in recent years. The spatially refined and high-temporal-resolution characteristics of glacier mass loss presented in this study contribute to a better understanding of specific glacier changes in the SETP. Additionally, the prediction results provide valuable references for future water resources management and policy formulation in the SETP region.

Rapid mass losses of Urumqi River Basin glaciers, eastern Tianshan Mountains revealed from multi-temporal DEMs, 1964–2021

ABSTRACT Glacier volume changes have remarkable impacts on regional water resources; however, their estimation uncertainties remain large. In this study, the surface elevations of seven glaciers at the headwaters of the Urumqi River exhibited obvious thinning at the rate of 0.32 m a−1 from 1964 to 2021. Correlations between the ice volume change (dV) derived from surface elevation conversion and the area change (dS) were established for valley, cirque, and hanging glaciers. The ice volumes of valley, cirque, and hanging glaciers in the Urumqi River Basin decreased by 0.99 km3, 0.18 km3, and 0.59 km3, respectively, and the total ice volume decreased by 1.76 km3 during 1964–2021. Ice volume losses are accelerating. The correlation between dV and dS for valley glaciers produced a large estimation difference for the ice volume change of Urumqi Glacier No. 1 (UG1) compared with the glaciological mass balance (15%), while the estimation differences of ice volume changes for the three types of glaciers in the Urumqi River Basin were within acceptable limits (10%) based on the geodetic results. This new method has vast potential in estimating ice volume changes at the basin or regional scale, or even across western China.

Bayesian estimation of glacier surface elevation changes from DEMs

Accurate estimates of glacier surface elevation changes are paramount for various aspects of the study of the cryosphere, from glacier flow and thickness estimates to hydrological forecasts and projections of sea-level-rise. We present a novel probabilistic framework to filter outliers and estimate uncertainties in glacier surface elevation changes computed from the subtraction of digital elevation models (DEM). Our methodology frames outlier filtering as a Bayesian inference problem, thus characterizing the state of knowledge on glacier surface elevation changes through the posterior distribution as the combination of glacier volume variation observations and prior knowledge arising from previously collected data and/or modeled results. We validate this technique with experiments using Gaussian random fields to generate artificial noise in glacier surface elevation variation observations and show that the model satisfactorily culls the simulated outliers. Surface elevation change estimates are consistent with results computed from widely-used outlier filtering and uncertainty estimation techniques. The Bayesian framework allows unifying DEM error models with physical considerations on glacier surface elevation changes within a simple, statistically coherent model preventing temporal correlation and additional biases in other techniques. On the basis of these results, we discuss the implications of DEM uncertainty and offer suggestions for the glaciological community.

Debris cover effect on the evolution of Northern Caucasus glaciers in the 21st century

More than 13% of the area of the Caucasus glaciers is covered by debris affecting glacier mass balance. Using the Caucasus as example, we introduce a new model configuration that incorporates a physically-based subroutine for the evolution of supraglacial debris into the Global Glacier Evolution Model (GloGEMflow), enabling its application at a regional level. Temporal evolution of debris cover is coupled to glacier dynamics allowing the thickest debris to accumulate in the areas with low velocity. The future evolution of glaciers in the Northern Caucasus is assessed for five Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP) and significance of explicitly incorporating debris-cover formulation in regional glacier modeling is evaluated. Under the more aggressive scenarios, glaciers are projected to disappear almost entirely except on Mount Elbrus, which reaches 5,642 m above sea level, by 2,100. Under the SSP1-1.9 scenario, glacier ice volume stabilizes by 2040. This finding stresses the importance of meeting the Paris Climate Agreement goals and limiting climatic warming to 1.5 °C. We compare evolution of glaciers in the Kuban (more humid western Caucasus) and Terek (drier central and eastern Caucasus) basins. In the Kuban basin, ice loss is projected to proceed at nearly double the rate of that in the Terek basin during the first half of the 21st century. While explicit inclusion of debris cover in modeling leads to a less pronounced projected ice loss, the maximum differences in glacier length, area, and volume occur before 2,100, especially for large valley glaciers diminishing towards the end of the century. These projections show that on average, fraction of debris-covered ice will increase while debris cover will become thinner towards the end of the 21st particularly under the more aggressive scenarios. Overall, the explicit consideration of debris cover has a minor effect on the projected regional glacier mass loss but it improves the representation of changes in glacier geometry locally.