Response Time Of Glaciers Research Articles

Accelerating Glacier Area Loss Across the Andes Since the Little Ice Age

AbstractAndean glaciers are losing mass rapidly but a centennial‐scale context to those rates is lacking. Here we show the extent of >5,500 glaciers during the Little Ice Age chronozone (LIA; c. 1,400 to c. 1,850) and compute an overall area change of −25% from then to year 2000 at an average rate of −36.5 km2 yr−1 or −0.11% yr−1. Glaciers in the Tropical Andes (Peru, Bolivia) have depleted the most; median −56% of LIA area, and the fastest; median −0.16% yr−1. Up to 10 × acceleration in glacier area loss has occurred in Tropical mountain sub‐regions comparing LIA to 2,000 rates to post‐2000 rates. Regional climate controls inter‐regional variability, whereas local factors affect intra‐region glacier response time. Analyzing glacier area change by river basins and by protected areas leads us to suggest that conservation and environmental management strategies should be re‐visited as proglacial areas expand.

Tree-ring Dating of the Little Ice Age Maxima of Arolla Glaciers (Valais, Switzerland)

Little Ice Age (LIA) glacier variations are well constrained in the Alps, partly thanks to an unparalleled body of historical sources. When absent, tree-ring dating can be used to obtain accurate chronological information on glacier maxima. To do so, it is necessary to focus on the trees that immediately bordered the former maximum extent reached by the glaciers in historical times. Here, we present tree-ring dating results for newly sampled wood material and archival data from the forefields of two glaciers in the Pennine Alps, Tsijiore Nouve and Glacier d’Arolla. These sites have historical sources dating back to the early 19th century, i.e. slightly more recent than for the best known Alpine glaciers. At Tsijiore Nouve, the dating of trees embedded in the LIA outer moraine at the valley bottom and of bordering living trees both indicate the presence of the ice near this location as early as summer 1813 CE and of a maximum extent reached in 1816 CE. This is highly consistent with available historical sources pointing to a LIA maximum in 1817 CE. At Glacier d’Arolla we dated the outermost moraine to winter 1816/1817 CE, which is synchronous, despite different glacier response times. The dates we obtained are significantly earlier than available evidence at other Alpine glaciers during the same advance. Our results highlight the ability of tree-ring dating to derive accurate calendar dates for glacier maxima and show – for the first time in the Alps - that some glaciers were already at or near their LIA maxima when the cooling associated with the Mount Tambora volcanic eruption occurred.

The Transient Sea Level Response to External Forcing in CMIP6 Models.

Earth is warming and sea levels are rising as land-based ice is lost to melt, and oceans expand due to accumulation of heat. The pace of ice loss and steric expansion is linked to the intensity of warming. How much faster sea level will rise as climate warms is, however, highly uncertain and difficult to model. Here, we quantify the transient sea level sensitivity of the sea level budget in both models and observations. Models show little change in sensitivity to warming between the first and second half of the twenty-first century for most contributors. The exception is glaciers and ice caps (GIC) that have a greater sensitivity pre-2050 (2.8±0.4mm/yr/K) compared to later (0.7±0.1mm/yr/K). We attribute this change to the short response time of glaciers and their changing area over time. Model sensitivities of steric expansion (1.5±0.2mm/yr/K), and Greenland Ice Sheet mass loss (0.8±0.2mm/yr/K) are greater than, but still compatible with, corresponding estimates from historical data (1.4±0.5 and 0.4±0.2mm/yr/K). Antarctic Ice Sheet (AIS) models tends to show lower rates of sea level rise (SLR) with warming (-0.0±0.3mm/yr/K) in contrast to historical estimates (0.4±0.2mm/yr/K). This apparent low bias in AIS sensitivity is only partly able to account for a similar low bias identified in the sensitivity of global mean sea level excluding GIC (3.1±0.4 vs. 2.3±0.4mm/yr/K). The balance temperature, where SLR is zero, lies close to the pre-industrial value, implying that SLR can only be mitigated by substantial global cooling.

Forward modelling of the completeness and preservation of palaeoclimate signals recorded by ice-marginal moraines.

Glaciers fluctuate in response to climate change and record these changes by building sedimentary landforms, including moraines. Therefore, glacial landscapes are a potentially valuable archive of terrestrial palaeoclimate change. Typically, a cooling climate causes glaciers to expand and a warming climate causes glaciers to shrink. However, the glacier response time and the influence of mountainous topography on glacier dynamics complicates this behaviour, such that moraines are not always a straightforward indicator of glacier change in response to climate change. We used a glacial landscape evolution model to simulate the response of a hypothetical mountain glacier to simple changes in climate and the resulting formation and preservation of moraines. These results show that the rate of climate change relative to the glacier response time determines the geometry, number, and position of moraines. Glaciers can build distinct moraines in the absence of climate change. The distance from the maximum ice extent may not represent the chronological order of moraine formation. Moraines can be preserved after being overrun and eroded by subsequent glaciations, but moraine sequences may also contain gaps that are unidentifiable in the field.

Differences in the transient responses of individual glaciers: a case study of the Cascade Mountains of Washington State, USA

AbstractMountain glaciers have response times that govern retreat due to anthropogenic climate change. We use geometric attributes to estimate individual response times for 383 glaciers in the Cascade mountain range of Washington State, USA. Approximately 90% of estimated response times are between 10 and 60 years, with many large glaciers on the short end of this distribution. A simple model of glacier dynamics shows that this range of response times entails consequential differences in recent and ongoing glacier changes: glaciers with decadal response times have nearly kept pace with anthropogenic warming, but those with multi-decadal response times are far from equilibrium, and their additional committed retreat stands well beyond natural variability. These differences have implications for changes in glacier runoff. A simple calculation highlights that transient peaks in area-integrated melt, either at the onset of forcing or due to variations in forcing, depend on the glacier's response time and degree of disequilibrium. We conclude that differences in individual response times should be considered when assessing the state of a population of glaciers and modeling their future response. These differences in response can arise simply from a range of different glacier geometries, and the same basic principles can be expected in other regions as well.

On the attribution of industrial-era glacier mass loss to anthropogenic climate change

Abstract. Around the world, small ice caps and glaciers have been losing mass and retreating since the start of the industrial era. Estimates are that this has contributed approximately 30 % of the observed sea-level rise over the same period. It is important to understand the relative importance of natural and anthropogenic components of this mass loss. One recent study concluded that the best estimate of the magnitude of the anthropogenic mass loss over the industrial era was only 25 % of the total, implying a predominantly natural cause. Here we show that the anthropogenic fraction of the total mass loss of a given glacier depends only on the magnitudes and rates of the natural and anthropogenic components of climate change and on the glacier's response time. We consider climate change over the past millennium using synthetic scenarios, palaeoclimate reconstructions, numerical climate simulations, and instrumental observations. We use these climate histories to drive a glacier model that can represent a wide range of glacier response times, and we evaluate the magnitude of the anthropogenic mass loss relative to the observed mass loss. The slow cooling over the preceding millennium followed by the rapid anthropogenic warming of the industrial era means that, over the full range of response times for small ice caps and glaciers, the central estimate of the magnitude of the anthropogenic mass loss is essentially 100 % of the observed mass loss. The anthropogenic magnitude may exceed 100 % in the event that, without anthropogenic climate forcing, glaciers would otherwise have been gaining mass. Our results bring assessments of the attribution of glacier mass loss into alignment with assessments of others aspects of climate change, such as global-mean temperature. Furthermore, these results reinforce the scientific and public understanding of centennial-scale glacier retreat as an unambiguous consequence of human activity.

Possible biases in scaling-based estimates of glacier change: a case study in the Himalaya

Abstract. Approximate glacier models are routinely used to compute the future evolution of mountain glaciers under any given climate-change scenario. A majority of these models are based on statistical scaling relations between glacier volume, area, and/or length. In this paper, long-term predictions from scaling-based models are compared with those from a two-dimensional shallow-ice approximation (SIA) model. We derive expressions for climate sensitivity and response time of glaciers assuming a time-independent volume–area scaling. These expressions are validated using a scaling-model simulation of the response of 703 synthetic glaciers from the central Himalaya to a step change in climate. The same experiment repeated with the SIA model yields about 2 times larger climate sensitivity and response time than those predicted by the scaling model. In addition, the SIA model obtains area response time that is about 1.5 times larger than the corresponding volume response time, whereas scaling models implicitly assume the two response times to be equal to each other. These results indicate the possibility of a low bias in the scaling model estimates of the long-term loss of glacier area and volume. The SIA model outputs are used to obtain parameterisations, climate sensitivity, and response time of glaciers as functions of ablation rate near the terminus, mass-balance gradient, and mean thickness. Using a linear-response model based on these parameterisations, we find that the linear-response model outperforms the scaling model in reproducing the glacier response simulated by the SIA model. This linear-response model may be useful for predicting the evolution of mountain glaciers on a global scale.

On the Imbalance and Response Time of Glaciers in the European Alps

AbstractGlaciers in the European Alps rapidly lose mass to adapt to changes in climate conditions. Here, we investigate the relationship and lag between climate forcing and geometric glacier response with a regional glacier evolution model accounting for ice dynamics. The volume loss occurring as a result of the glacier‐climate imbalance increased over the early 21st century, from about 35% in 2001 to 44% in 2010. This committed loss reduced to ~40% by 2018, indicating that temperature increase was outweighing glacier retreat in the early 2000s but that the fast retreat effectively somewhat diminished glacier imbalances. We analyze the lag in glacier response for each individual glacier and find mean response times of 50 ± 28 years. Our findings indicate that the response time is primarily controlled by glacier slope and secondarily by elevation range and mass balance gradient, rather than by glacier size.

Processes of ‘hummocky moraine’ formation in the Gaick, Scotland: insights into the ice‐marginal dynamics of a Younger Dryas plateau icefield

Younger Dryas ice‐marginal (‘hummocky’) moraines in Scotland represent valuable terrestrial archives that can be used to obtain important information on ice‐marginal dynamics and glacier thermal regimes during a period of rapid climatic change. In this paper, we present detailed sedimentological studies of Younger Dryas ice‐marginal moraines in the Gaick, central Scotland, the former site of a spatially restricted plateau icefield. Exposures demonstrate that moraines in the Gaick represent terrestrial ice‐contact fans, with evidence of proglacial and subglacial glaciotectonization, as reported elsewhere in Scotland. The exposures also reveal the influence of local hydrogeological conditions, with pressurization of the groundwater system leading to the formation of hydrofracture fills within some moraines. Clast shape analysis shows that all the moraines contain debris consistent with transport in the subglacial traction zone. The sedimentological data, and the planform arrangement of the moraines as nested arcs or chevrons, indicate that retreat of the Younger Dryas Gaick Icefield outlets was incremental and oscillatory. This evidence strongly suggests a mainly temperate thermal regime and short glacier response times, but with narrow cold‐ice zones near the margins facilitating the elevation of basal debris to the glacier surface. Analogous glaciodynamic regimes occur at modern ice‐cap and plateau icefield outlets in Iceland and Norway, although there are significant differences in the nature of ice‐marginal deposition. The glaciodynamic signature recorded by moraines in the Gaick has allowed us to shed new light on the ice‐marginal dynamics and thermal regime of one of the most easterly Younger Dryas icefields in Scotland.

The Response Time of Glacial Erosion

There has been recent progress in the understanding of the evolution of Quaternary climate. Simultaneously, there have been improvements in the understanding of glacial erosion processes, with better parameter constraints. Despite this, there remains much debate about whether or not the observed cooling over the Quaternary has driven an increase in glacial erosion rates. Most studies agree that the erosional response to climate change must be transient; therefore, the time scale of the climatic change and the response time of glacial erosion must be accounted for. Here we analyze the equations governing glacial erosion in a steadily uplifting landscape with variable climatic forcing and derive expressions for two fundamental response time scales. The first time scale describes the response of the glacier and the second one the glacial erosion response. We find that glaciers have characteristic time scales of the order of 10 to 10,000 years, while the characteristic time scale for glacial erosion is of the order of a few tens of thousands to a few million years. We then use a numerical model to validate the approximations made to derive the analytical solutions. The solutions show that short period forcing is dampened by the glacier response time, and long period forcing (>1 Myr) may be dampened by erosional response of glaciers when the rock uplift rates are high. In most tectonic and climatic conditions, we expect to see the strongest response of glacial erosion to periodic climatic forcing corresponding to Plio‐Pleistocene climatic cycles. Finally, we use the numerical model to predict the response of glacial systems to the observed climatic forcing of the Quaternary, including, but not limited to, the Milankovich periods and the long‐term secular cooling trend. We conclude that an increase of glacial erosion in response to Quaternary cooling is physically plausible, and we show that the magnitude of the increase depends on rock uplift and ice accumulation rates.

Centennial glacier retreat as categorical evidence of regional climate change

The near-global retreat of glaciers over the last century provides some of the most iconic imagery for communicating the reality of anthropogenic climate change to the public. Surprisingly, however, there has not been a quantitative foundation for attributing the retreats to climate change, except in the global aggregate. This gap, between public perception and scientific basis, is due to uncertainties in numerical modelling and the short length of glacier mass-balance records. Here we present a method for assessing individual glacier change based on the signal-to-noise ratio, a robust metric that is insensitive to uncertainties in glacier dynamics. Using only meteorological and glacier observations, and the characteristic decadal response time of glaciers, we demonstrate that observed retreats of individual glaciers represent some of the highest signal-to-noise ratios of climate change yet documented. Therefore, in many places, the centennial-scale retreat of the local glaciers does indeed constitute categorical evidence of climate change. Glaciers have been retreating almost globally over the past century. An analysis using signal-to-noise ratio as a metric of individual glacier change reveals that glacier retreat constitutes categorical evidence for regional climate change.

Temperature reconstruction from the length fluctuations of small glaciers in the eastern Alps (northeastern Italy)

In this study, a linear model computing the air temperature fluctuations from the measured glacier snout fluctuations has been applied, for the first time, to three small glaciers in the western Tauern Alps (eastern Alps) in the period 1929–2011. The considered glaciers, with areas between 0.2 and $$1.3\,\hbox {km}^2$$ , are characterized by relevant time variations of their morphology, length and slope. The model requires the knowledge of two parameters: the glacier climate sensitivity $$C_s$$ and the glacier response time $$\tau$$ , both depending on the glacier morphological characteristics and on the precipitation. Applied to the glaciers assuming $$C_s$$ and $$\tau$$ as in the original formulation, it underestimates the temperature increase of $${\approx } 1.8\,^{\circ }\hbox {C}$$ derived over the whole period from the in situ data. Given the characteristics of these small glaciers, these parameters have been recalibrated by means of a non-linear least-square regression using an independent set of glaciers. Their mean value is of about 210 m/K and 3.8 years respectively. With the recalibrated values of the new glacier climate sensitivity $$C^*_s$$ and response time $$\tau ^*$$ , the temperature fluctuations derived by the model reproduce well those obtained from the observed temperatures computed over the hydrological year, with linear correlations between 0.8 and 0.9. The increase of the modeled mean temperature over the whole period fits in with that derived from observed temperature. Considering that the length fluctuations of these small glaciers affect significantly their slope and length, we tested the impact in the model of a time dependent formulation of $$C_s$$ and $$\tau$$ : the results indicate slight improvements both in the values of the correlation between the reconstructed and the observed temperature fluctuations and in the global temperature increase. Given the above value of climate sensitivity, the large retreat of the small alpine glaciers threatens their survival within a few decades, but the morphological changes in progress may counteract the glacier disappearance.

Quantifying ice loss in the eastern Himalayas since 1974 using declassified spy satellite imagery

Abstract. Himalayan glaciers are important natural resources and climate indicators for densely populated regions in Asia. Remote sensing methods are vital for evaluating glacier response to changing climate over the vast and rugged Himalayan region, yet many platforms capable of glacier mass balance quantification are somewhat temporally limited due to typical glacier response times. We here rely on declassified spy satellite imagery and ASTER data to quantify surface lowering, ice volume change, and geodetic mass balance during 1974–2006 for glaciers in the eastern Himalayas, centered on the Bhutan–China border. The wide range of glacier types allows for the first mass balance comparison between clean, debris, and lake-terminating (calving) glaciers in the region. Measured glaciers show significant ice loss, with an estimated mean annual geodetic mass balance of −0.13 ± 0.06 m w.e. yr−1 (meters of water equivalent per year) for 10 clean-ice glaciers, −0.19 ± 0.11 m w.e. yr−1 for 5 debris-covered glaciers, −0.28 ± 0.10 m w.e. yr−1 for 6 calving glaciers, and −0.17 ± 0.05 m w.e. yr−1 for all glaciers combined. Contrasting hypsometries along with melt pond, ice cliff, and englacial conduit mechanisms result in statistically similar mass balance values for both clean-ice and debris-covered glacier groups. Calving glaciers comprise 18 % (66 km2) of the glacierized area yet have contributed 30 % (−0.7 km3) to the total ice volume loss, highlighting the growing relevance of proglacial lake formation and associated calving for the future ice mass budget of the Himalayas as the number and size of glacial lakes increase.

Similitude of ice dynamics against scaling of geometry and physical parameters

Abstract. The concept of similitude is commonly employed in the fields of fluid dynamics and engineering but rarely used in cryospheric research. Here we apply this method to the problem of ice flow to examine the dynamic similitude of isothermal ice sheets in shallow-shelf approximation against the scaling of their geometry and physical parameters. Carrying out a dimensional analysis of the stress balance we obtain dimensionless numbers that characterize the flow. Requiring that these numbers remain the same under scaling we obtain conditions that relate the geometric scaling factors, the parameters for the ice softness, surface mass balance and basal friction as well as the ice-sheet intrinsic response time to each other. We demonstrate that these scaling laws are the same for both the (two-dimensional) flow-line case and the three-dimensional case. The theoretically predicted ice-sheet scaling behavior agrees with results from numerical simulations that we conduct in flow-line and three-dimensional conceptual setups. We further investigate analytically the implications of geometric scaling of ice sheets for their response time. With this study we provide a framework which, under several assumptions, allows for a fundamental comparison of the ice-dynamic behavior across different scales. It proves to be useful in the design of conceptual numerical model setups and could also be helpful for designing laboratory glacier experiments. The concept might also be applied to real-world systems, e.g., to examine the response times of glaciers, ice streams or ice sheets to climatic perturbations.

An assessment of basin-scale glaciological and hydrological sensitivities in the Hindu Kush–Himalaya

Abstract.Glacier responses to future climate change will affect hydrology at sub-basin scales. The main goal of this study is to assess glaciological and hydrological sensitivities of sub-basins throughout the Hindu Kush-Himalaya region. We use a simple geometrical analysis based on a full glacier inventory and digital elevation model to estimate sub-basin equilibrium-line altitudes (ELAs) from assumptions of steady-state accumulation area ratios. The ELA response to an increase in temperature is expressed as a function of mean annual precipitation, derived from a range of high-altitude studies. Changes in glacier contributions to streamflow in response to increased temperatures are examined for scenarios of both static and adjusted glacier geometries. On average, glacier contributions to streamflow increase by ~50% for a +1 K warming based on a static geometry. Large decreases (-60% on average) occur in all basins when glacier geometries are instantaneously adjusted to reflect the new ELA. Finally, we provide estimates of sub-basin glacier response times that suggest a majority of basins will experience declining glacier contributions by 2100.

Glaciers. Attribution of global glacier mass loss to anthropogenic and natural causes.

The ongoing global glacier retreat is affecting human societies by causing sea-level rise, changing seasonal water availability, and increasing geohazards. Melting glaciers are an icon of anthropogenic climate change. However, glacier response times are typically decades or longer, which implies that the present-day glacier retreat is a mixed response to past and current natural climate variability and current anthropogenic forcing. Here we show that only 25 ± 35% of the global glacier mass loss during the period from 1851 to 2010 is attributable to anthropogenic causes. Nevertheless, the anthropogenic signal is detectable with high confidence in glacier mass balance observations during 1991 to 2010, and the anthropogenic fraction of global glacier mass loss during that period has increased to 69 ± 24%.

Glacier changes in the Karakoram region mapped by multimission satellite imagery

Abstract. Positive glacier-mass balances in the Karakoram region during the last decade have fostered stable and advancing glacier termini positions, while glaciers in the adjacent mountain ranges have been affected by glacier recession and thinning. In addition to fluctuations induced solely by climate, the Karakoram is known for a large number of surge-type glaciers. The present study provides an updated and extended inventory on advancing, stable, retreating, and surge-type glaciers using Landsat imagery from 1976 to 2012. Out of 1219 glaciers the vast majority showed a stable terminus (969) during the observation period. Sixty-five glaciers advanced, 93 glaciers retreated, and 101 surge-type glaciers were identified, of which 10 are new observations. The dimensional and topographic characteristics of each glacier class were calculated and analyzed. Ninety percent of nonsurge-type glaciers are shorter than 10 km, whereas surge-type glaciers are, in general, longer. We report short response times of glaciers in the Karakoram and suggest a shift from negative to balanced/positive mass budgets in the 1980s or 1990s. Additionally, we present glacier surface velocities derived from different SAR (synthetic aperture radar) sensors and different years for a Karakoram-wide coverage. High-resolution SAR data enables the investigation of small and relatively fast-flowing glaciers (e.g., up to 1.8 m day−1 during an active phase of a surge). The combination of multitemporal optical imagery and SAR-based surface velocities enables an improved, Karakoram-wide glacier inventory and hence, provides relevant new observational information on the current state of glaciers in the Karakoram.

Changes in glacierisation, climate and runoff in the second half of the 20th century in the Naryn basin, Central Asia

Glaciers are significant fresh water storages in Central Asian high mountains and are considered to substantially contribute to the summer runoff of Central Asian Rivers. We present a comprehensive study of the glacier area changes in the Naryn catchment located in the Tien Shan Mountains. The catchment with a size of 55,944km2 is a major tributary of the Syrdarya River which is heavily used for water supply and irrigation. We analysed the glacier retreat based on Landsat MSS, TM and ETM+imagery for the mid-1970s, late 1990s and mid-2000s and based on a SPOT scene for 2007. Our results show a decreasing glacierisation within the catchment, shrinking from 1210±30km2 (2.2% glacierisation) in the 1970s to 1019±25km2 (1.8% glacierisation) in the late 1990s and further down to 926±23km2 (1.7% glacierisation) in the mid-2000s, corresponding to an area loss of 23% in total. The analysis reveals spatially heterogeneous area loss within the catchment. This can be associated with different hypsometries, size distributions, aspects and presences of debris cover. Small glaciers (with an area<1km2) suffered from a strong area loss within the 30-years investigation period.Trends in air temperature, precipitation and positive degree days (PDD) at climate stations suggest that the glacier retreat is likely to be driven by the increasing summer (April–September) temperature, rather than changes in precipitation: In the period from 1960 to 2007, both summer air temperature and PDDs increased significantly at a rate of 0.19°C/decade and 3.9°C/decade respectively, whilst for precipitation no consistent trends were detected. However, rigorous attribution of changes is complicated by the variable glacier response times. In the two headwater sub-catchments of the Naryn basin, Small and Big Naryn, positive trends in spring and autumn discharge were detected and are likely to be associated with the enhanced snow and glacier melt driven by increasing temperatures in those seasons. However, no discharge trends in August – the month with the largest expected glacier contribution – were detected. The strong, significantly positive trends in winter and early spring runoff are associated with strongly increasing winter temperatures and number of days with maximum daily temperature above the freezing point causing snow melt. Hence, increasing glacier area reduction can be explained by the prolongation of the melting season reducing accumulation rather than by increasing annual mean temperatures. Despite the high relative changes, the absolute increase in winter discharge is very small.

Modelling runoff in a Swiss glacierized catchment—part I: methodology and application in the Findelen basin under a long‐lasting stable climate

AbstractThe complex topography of the Alps makes detailed hydrological modelling a real challenge. It is yet an essential task to improve the insight of hydrological processes in the context of intensification of renewable energy use and under the constraints of climate change. In this perspective and as a case study, the runoff of a small highly glacierized basin in the Swiss Alps—namely the Findelen catchment area—has been modelled with a hydrological model (Routing System 3.0; RS3.0). It is a conceptual model, based on object‐oriented programming and it computes snow‐melt, glaciers, infiltration and runoff processes. As input, it requires hourly air temperatures and precipitation, and the geomorphologic features of the catchment area and glacier. RS3.0 has proven to be very efficient in reproducing discharge. To evaluate the impacts of climate change on runoff—the final objective of the study addressed in a companion paper—a stochastic meteorological data generator has been developed to reproduce a sequence of air temperature and precipitation over more than one century. In this way, a continuous series of daily discharge values has been simulated by RS3.0 with the stochastic input data. This methodology has also enabled an assessment of the glacier response time to a stable climate. Indeed, if the climatic conditions of the standard reference period 1961‐1990 were to be preserved throughout the 21st century, the simulation shows that the watershed would be slow to adapt: the glaciers would be balanced with the atmospheric conditions and the water discharge would reach a lower stable value in more than 40 years. However, the glacierized area would lose only 3.5% of its surface. Copyright © 2012 Royal Meteorological Society

Changes of glacier frontal positions of vestfonna (nordaustlandet, svalbard)

Braun, M., Pohjola, V.A., Pettersson, R., Möller, M., Finkelnburg, R., Falk, U., Scherer, D. and Schneider, C., 2011. Changes of glacier frontal positions of Vestfonna (Nordaustlandet, Svalbard). Geografiska Annaler: Series A, Physical Geography, 93, 301–310. DOI: 10.1111/j.1468‐0459.2011.00437.xGlaciers in Svalbard have shown considerable mass loss in recent years with a reported acceleration in the western and southern parts of the archipelago. However, for the ice cap Vestfonna, in northeastern Svalbard, climatic mass balance modelling has suggested almost balanced conditions over a period of nine years (2000–2009). A slightly positive geodetic mass balance (1990–2005) has been reported from a comparison of laser altimetry to older DEMs. A heterogeneous situation has been depicted for the various catchments, and hence changes in glacier extent can reveal additional information of glacier status, in particular when dealing with surge‐type glaciers. We analysed a 34‐year data record of multi‐spectral satellite imagery in order to study changes in glacier frontal positions of the ice cap Vestfonna. A consistent pattern of almost steady retreat of the southern and north‐eastern outlet glaciers of the ice cap is observed while Franklinbreen, the only major outlet glacier draining towards the north‐west shows re‐advance. This is consistent with an observed speed up and potential upcoming surge of this outlet. The glacier retreat on the southern coast also agrees with ICESat elevation change measurements. However, due to the glacier response time no direct relations between frontal retreat and surface mass balance can be drawn from the short observation period. The heterogeneous pattern of changes with on‐going dynamic adjustments in some areas make the ice cap Vestfonna an ideal test site for future monitoring activities including novel techniques like differential interferometry from bi‐static SAR systems.