Glacier Area Changes Research Articles

Recent glacier area changes in Himalaya–Karakoram and the impact of latitudinal variation

Recent glacier area changes in Himalaya–Karakoram and the impact of latitudinal variation

Estimating the Changes in Glaciers and Glacial Lakes in the Xixabangma Massif, Central Himalayas, between 1974 and 2018 from Multisource Remote Sensing Data

The continuous melting of valley glaciers can impact the water levels of glacial lakes and create glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs). The Xixabangma massif is one of the most populated areas in the Himalayas and has suffered from multiple GLOFs. To estimate the glacier melting rate in the past four decades and analyze the outburst risk of glacial lakes in the Xixabangma massif, we determined changes in glacier mass balance, glacier area and glacial lake area based on KH-9 images, TanDEM-X images, Landsat images, SRTM DEM and ICESat-2 elevations. Our results show that, from 1974 to 2018, the total glacier area shrank from 954.01 km2 to 752.46 km2, whereas the total glacial lake area grew from 20.90 km2 to 38.71 km2. From 1974 to 2000, 2000 to 2013 and 2013 to 2018, the region-wide glacier mass balance values were −0.16 m w.e./a, −0.31 m w.e./a and −0.29 m w.e./a, respectively. Three glacial lakes, named Gangxico, Galongco and Jialongco, respectively, expanded by 127.14%, 373.45% and 436.36% from 1974 to 2018, and the mass loss rates of their parent glaciers from 2000 to 2013 increased by 81.72%, 122.22% and 160.00% relative to those during 1974 to 2000. The dams of these three lakes are unstable, and their drainage valleys directly connect to a major town and its infrastructure. Due to current high-water levels, possible external events such as ice collapse, landslide, heavy rainfall and earthquakes can easily trigger GLOFs. Hence, we deemed that the Gangxico, Galongco and Jialongco glacial lakes are dangerous and require special attention.

Research on glacier DEM extraction method based on ASTER Data

The greenhouse effect has led to a large area shrinkage of glaciers in the west of China, resulting in great changes in glacial landforms. In this paper, we use remote sensing satellite to obtain timely and accurate DEM, and use remote sensing technology to process DEM effectively, so as to obtain high-precision results, which can be used as the basic model to study glacier area change. In this paper, the DEM of Malan ice cap in Xinqingfeng is extracted from the orthoengine module of PCI, and the results of DEM obtained are compared with the reference DEM by using aster stereo image pair, and the results of Aster meeting the accuracy requirements are analyzed, which is helpful for the application of Aster stereo image pair in DEM production process.

An automatic method for clean glacier and nonseasonal snow area change estimation in High Mountain Asia from 1990 to 2018

Large-scale glacier area expansion or shrinkage is among the most conspicuous indicators of regional and global climate change. Glacier extraction from satellite images is an essential step in large-scale area change monitoring. However, glacier extraction is usually influenced by cloud cover and seasonal snow, and thus far, there is no effective and automatic method to monitor glacier area change in large regions. In this study, a new method ‘multi-temporal minimum NDSI composite’ is proposed for clean glacier and nonseasonal snow extraction, and the results agree well with the glacier inventory (excluding the debris part), except in Himalayan regions where non-seasonal snow exists widely out of glaciers. This method is also used to estimate the glacier and nonseasonal snow area changes in High Mountain Asia (HMA) over the past 29 years. With this method, we can use abundant Landsat images of summer seasons from continuous years to composite a cloud-free and seasonal snow-free glacial image pixel by pixel. Glacial maps for the whole HMA are produced every 10 years beginning in 1990, so glacier changes are presented in different subregions and periods. The number of images which is used to composite a glacial map in each pixel is also given for uncertainty analysis. According to the results, the clean glacier and nonseasonal snow area in HMA decreased by −0.43 ± 0.19%/a during 1990–2018 but had high temporal and spatial heterogeneity. Clean glacier and nonseasonal snow area decreased rapidly during 1990–2000, slowed down during 2000–2010, and then sped up during 2010–2018. The fastest reductions were in Hengduan Shan at rates of approximately −1.05 ± 0.09%/a, and the only area with growth (at a rate of 0.50 ± 0.11%/a) was in West Kun Lun during 1990–2018.

Quantification of volume loss and snout retreat from 1980 to 2019 of baspa basin glaciers, western himalaya

Himalayan glaciers are under the enhanced retreating process and filed observations are scarce due to the harsh terrain and inclement weather in the upper Himalayan region. Under these conditions, the use of remote sensing and GIS technique is the best option for long term change detection in glacial features. Glacier length, area, and volume change analyses have been done using Landsat data series (MSS, TM, ETM+, and OLI/TIRS) from 1980 to 2019. Glaciers of Baspa basin were digitized in 1980 and 75 glaciers were reported whereas in 2019, number of glaciers were 84. During the period of 1980 to 2019, the number of glaciers were increased by 9 in the Baspa basin but the volume has been reduced. The increase in number has been due to the conversion of larger glaciers into a few smaller glaciers under the melting process.The results showed a general trend of loss in the areas and volume of the glaciers with varying magnitudes at different glaciers of the Baspa basin and in different periods. The overall retreat during 1980–2019 has been 22.40 ± 4.46% with the average loss in the area as 1.11 ± 0.01 km2 a-1 in the entire Baspa basin. The smallest rate of loss in the glacier area has been observed as 1.05 ± 0.01 km2 a-1 from 2001 to 2013. The Baspa basin possessed a glacial volume of 16.26 km3 in the year 1980 that got reduced to 12.98 km3 by the year 2019. The total loss in 39 years (1980–2019) has been calculated as 3.28 km3. The rate of loss in volume is highest in the period 2013 to 2019 which is 0.116 km3 a-1 and the minimum rate of loss in volume was observed from 1994 to 2001 i.e. 0.035 km3 a-1.The results on changes in the areal cover of glaciers as well as the volume are important for quantification of future water availability on the basis which controls the water supply in the river system. It is also of use in the planning of the hydropower sectors as well as the existing power plants in terms of the potential to generate electricity.

Region-wide glacier area and mass budgets for the Shaksgam River Basin, Karakoram Mountains, during 2000–2016

The Karakoram Mountains are well known for their widespread surge-type glaciers and slight glacier mass gains. On the one hand, glaciers are one of the sensitive indicators of climate change, their area and thickness will adjust with climate change. On the other hand, glaciers provide freshwater resources for agricultural irrigation and hydroelectric generation in the downstream areas of the Shaksgam River Basin (SRB) in Western China. The shrinkage of glaciers caused by climate change can significantly affect the security and sustainable development of regional water resources. In this study, we analyzed the changes in glacier area from 2000 to 2016 in the SRB using Landsat TM (Thematic Mapper)/ETM+ (Enhanced Mapper Plus)/OLI (Operational Land Imager) images. It is shown that the SRB contained 472 glaciers, with an area of 1840.3 km2, in 2016. The glacier area decreased by 0.14%/a since 2000, and the shrinkage of glacier in the southeast, east and south directions were the most, while the northeast, north directions were the least. Debris-covered area accounted for 8.0% of the total glacier area. We estimated elevation and mass changes using the 1 arc-second SRTM (Shuttle Radar Topography Mission) DEM (Digital Elevation Model) (2000) and the resolution of 8 m HMA (High Mountain Asia) DEM (2016). An average thickness of 0.08 (±0.03) m/a, or a slight mass increase of 0.06 (±0.02) m w.e./a has been obtained since 2000. We found thinning was significantly lesser on the clean ice than the debris-covered ice. In addition, the elevation of glacier surface is spatially heterogeneous, showing that the accumulation of mass is dominant in high altitude regions, and the main mass loss is in low altitude regions, excluding the surge-type glacier. For surge-type glaciers, the mass may transfer from the reservoir to the receiving area rapidly when surges, then resulting in an advance of glacier terminus. The main surge mechanism is still unclear, it is worth noting that the surge did not increase the glacier mass in this study.

Modern glacier dynamics in Mt. Tsambagarav in the Mongolian Altai Mountain Range

This study presents the modern glacier dynamics in Mt. Tsambagarav in the Mongolian Altai Mountain Range over the last four decades. This is the first review of this type of glacier dynamics for this massif. Changes in glacier area in Mt. Tsambagarav are estimated using normalized indexes (Normalized Difference Snow Index and Normalized Difference Principal Component Snow Index). Spatial distribution of the modern glaciers delineated with Landsat Multispectral Scanner (MSS: resolution of 80 m), Landsat Thematic Mapper (TM: resolution of 30 m) and Landsat Operational Land Imager (OLI: resolution of 30 m) imageries. Result shows that Mt. Tsambagarav has lost 51.7% of the glacier area from 132.24 km2 in 1977 to 63.92 km2 in 2017. The loss in glacier area for Mt. Tsambagarav during the last 40 years reflect the rapid response of the modern glacier to climate change, i.e., it is highly sensitive to solar insolation and/or rapidly rising local and regional mean annual temperatures. The remote sensing data and field survey suggest that the modern glaciers would be disappeared on a scale of decades. Rapid melting of the glacier in this massif contributes to surface water resources in western Mongolia. This study demonstrates the importance of spatial analysis in the remote area for understanding the context of changes in the modern glaciers.

Very Small Glaciers as Geoheritage: Combining a Spatio-Temporal Visualisation of Their Development and Related Effects of Climate Change

Outside the main mountain ranges and high North and South regions, individual isolated very small glaciers are the only glacier remnants and exceptional high-mountain active geomorphosites, which can be used to represent climate change consequences first hand to the local general public. The isolated, very small Triglav glacier in Slovenia was used to represent 3D glacier area changes for the period 1829–2016, together with long-term meteorological changes. Spatio-temporal changes of the glacier were derived mainly from old images and postcards with the help of interactive orientation (monoplotting), which enables the acquisition of a 3D glacier boundary from a single image by using a modern detailed digital elevation model. Very intuitive 3D visualisation was prepared, which shows the spatio-temporal changes of the glacier area, together with changes in average annual temperature and maximum annual snow depth. The last two are presented by colour palettes, where red colours represent stages when temperatures or maximum snow depths deviate from long-term averages in a negative way, meaning accelerating the glacier area reduction. Blue colours are used for stages when these parameters deviate from long-term averages in a positive way, meaning preserving the glacier area. From this 3D visualisation, one can easily recognise which meteorological parameter is the most important for the Triglav glacier preservation; this is the maximum annual snow depth. Such kind of 3D visualisation has a great potential for promotion of other active or evolving passive geomorphosites too.

Glacial geomorphology and recent glacial recession of the Harmukh Range, NW Himalaya

A comprehensive description of the glaciation and glacial geomorphology of the Harmukh range, northwest Himalaya is reported first time in this study. The geomorphic system of the range is dominated by glaciation and provides an excellent opportunity to assess the glacial fluctuations from the Late Quaternary to the present. Using a time series of the satellite data from 1992 to 2018, the glacier area, snout and equilibrium line altitude (ELA) changes of the existing glaciers in the Harmukh Range were estimated. The glacier cover has receded from 7.47 ± 0.58 km2 in 1992 to 6.24 ± 0.62 km2 in 2018, a deglaciation of 16.46 ± 0.24%. The glaciers showed an upward shift in ELA from 47 m to 80 m during the last two and a half decade. The observations revealed that, other than the climatic factors, the ELA change and glacier recessions are influenced by the glacier size, mean altitude, and the aspect of the glaciers. Further, the high-resolution Google Earth images, supplemented by field observations, were used for mapping various glacial-geomorphic landforms. The nature of glacial grooves, overdeepenings, the height of the lateral moraine deposits and trimlines indicated appreciable thickness of the former glaciers. The pattern of the glaciated valleys revealed that the area has predominantly experienced alpine type of glaciation with most of the glaciers centred on the Harmukh peak. Based on the shape and the number of lateral moraine ridges present, it is suggested that the area has witnessed three major glacial advances. By tracing the outer limits of the glacial valleys, moraine boulders, and ice scoured terrain, it was estimated that the glaciers in the range covered 629 km2 during the glacial maxima. The presence of numerous rock glaciers and debris-free cirque glaciers on the north-eastern slopes of the range indicated a strong climatic and topographical control on the pattern, situation and extent of glaciers. However, there is a need for detailed field-based mapping of the glacial-geomorphology and geochronological study in order to better understand the nature and extent of paleo-glaciation, the observed glacier recession and the past climatic variations in this hitherto understudied glaciated region of the Kashmir Himalaya.

Reply to the comments by Kochtitzky and Edwards (2020) on the study ‘Area changes of glaciers on active volcanoes in Latin America’ by Reinthaler and others (2019)

Reply to the comments by Kochtitzky and Edwards (2020) on the study ‘Area changes of glaciers on active volcanoes in Latin America’ by Reinthaler and others (2019)

Future projection of cryospheric and hydrologic regimes in Koshi River basin, Central Himalaya, using coupled glacier dynamics and glacio-hydrological models

AbstractClimate-induced cryospheric changes can have a significant impact on the downstream water availability. In this study, the Open Global Glacier Model (OGGM) and the Glacio-hydrological Degree-day Model (GDM) are integrated to project the response of cryospheric and hydrological systems to climate change until 2100. The study area comprises six sub-basins of glacierized Koshi River basin covering Nepalese and Chinese territories. The output from OGGM is provided as input to GDM along with the spatial and hydro-meteorological data. The average glacier area change in all the sub-basins from 2021 to 2100 is estimated as 65 and 85% decrease and the average glacier volume change is estimated as 76 and 86% decrease for RCP 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios, respectively. The future simulated discharge shows an increasing trend in pre-monsoon and monsoon seasons and a decreasing trend in post-monsoon and winter seasons after 2060 in all the sub-basins, which can lead to wetter wet seasons and drier dry seasons in the far future. A shift in peak flow is observed from August to July in most of the sub-basins. The coupled modelling technique used in this study can largely improve our understanding of glacio-hydrological dynamics in the Himalayan region.

Area and Mass Changes of Glaciers in the West Kunlun Mountains Based on the Analysis of Multi-Temporal Remote Sensing Images and DEMs from 1970 to 2018

Most of the world’s glaciers have retreated significantly against the background of recent climate warming, while reports have indicated that the glaciers in the West Kunlun Mountains (WKL) may be in a relatively stable state, although there are some gaps in previous research. Based on Landsat series data, topographic maps, SRTM and TanDEM-x data, this paper extracts detailed glacial area information and glacial mass balance during different time periods from 1970 to 2018. We found that, the total area of glaciers in the WKL decreased by 8.0 km2 from 1972 to 2018. The area decreased by 12.0 km2 from 1972 to 1991 and increased by 4.7 km2 from 2010 to 2018. Glacier surface elevation change results in the WKL showed that the overall glacier thickness slightly decreased from 1970 to 2016, with an average of 1.9 ± 1.0 m. The glaciers thinned by approximately 2.5 ± 1.0 m from 1970 to 2000, while from 2000 to 2016, the glaciers thickened approximately by 0.6 ± 1.0 m. Overall, the glaciers in the WKL showed very slight retreat. In addition, the mass changes of glaciers were affected by glacial surging.

Partitioning the Uncertainty of Ensemble Projections of Global Glacier Mass Change

AbstractGlacier mass loss is recognized as a major contributor to current sea level rise. However, large uncertainties remain in projections of glacier mass loss on global and regional scales. We present an ensemble of 288 glacier mass and area change projections for the 21st century based on 11 glacier models using up to 10 general circulation models and four Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) as boundary conditions. We partition the total uncertainty into the individual contributions caused by glacier models, general circulation models, RCPs, and natural variability. We find that emission scenario uncertainty is growing throughout the 21st century and is the largest source of uncertainty by 2100. The relative importance of glacier model uncertainty decreases over time, but it is the greatest source of uncertainty until the middle of this century. The projection uncertainty associated with natural variability is small on the global scale but can be large on regional scales. The projected global mass loss by 2100 relative to 2015 (79 ± 56 mm sea level equivalent for RCP2.6, 159 ± 86 mm sea level equivalent for RCP8.5) is lower than, but well within, the uncertainty range of previous projections.

Glacier mapping and change analysis in Chandra basin, Western Himalaya, India during 1971–2016

ABSTRACT For carrying out glacier change analysis in Chandra basin, Western Himalaya, India during 1971–2016, glacier inventory is generated for year 2002 using Landsat Enhanced Thematic Mapper+ (ETM+) and Advanced Spaceborne Thermal Emission and Reflection Radiometer (ASTER) Global Digital Elevation Model Version 2 (GDEM V2) data. Total 395 glaciers are mapped covering 703.3 ± 20.4 km2 area with minimum glacier size being >0.02 km2. Out of these, 59 glaciers have debris-covered ice covering an area of 67.2 ± 1.9 km2. In this study, a subset of 169 glaciers is used for glacier area change analysis using Corona KH-4B (1971), Landsat ETM+ (2002) and Sentinel-2 (2016) images due to the availability of cloud free data sources. In 1971, 639.4 ± 5.8 km2 glacier area is estimated which decreased to 620.2 ± 18.0 km2 (–3.0 ± 3.0%) in 2002 and 608.1 ± 10.3 km2 (–4.9 ± 1.9%) in 2016. The change in glacier length of Samudra Tapu and Gepang Gath glaciers is showing increasing trend since last two decades as compared to Hamtah, Chhota Shigri and Bara Shigri glaciers due to presence of pro-glacial lake at their snout. Clean-ice glaciers, glaciers with low mean elevation, glaciers having steep surface, glaciers with west to south and east to south orientation, small size glaciers and glaciers having pro-glacial lake at the snout are responsible to higher loss in glacier area. Statistical trend analysis using Mann-Kendall test and Sen’s slope estimator test show that Asian Precipitation-Highly-Resolved Observational Data Integration Towards Evaluation (APHRODITE) based annual mean temperature have rising trend at a rate of 0.02°C per year during 1961–2015, and can be ascribed as one of the factors for glacier shrinking.

Rapid glacier retreat and downwasting throughout the European Alps in the early 21st century

Mountain glaciers are known to be strongly affected by global climate change. Here we compute temporally consistent changes in glacier area, surface elevation and ice mass over the entire European Alps between 2000 and 2014. We apply remote sensing techniques on an extensive database of optical and radar imagery covering 93% of the total Alpine glacier volume. Our results reveal rapid glacier retreat across the Alps (−39 km² a−1) with regionally variable ice thickness changes (−0.5 to −0.9 m a−1). The strongest downwasting is observed in the Swiss Glarus and Lepontine Alps with specific mass change rates up to −1.03 m.w.e. a−1. For the entire Alps a mass loss of 1.3 ± 0.2 Gt a−1 (2000–2014) is estimated. Compared to previous studies, our estimated mass changes are similar for the central Alps, but less negative for the lower mountain ranges. These observations provide important information for future research on various socio-economic impacts like water resource management, risk assessments and tourism.

Glacier mass changes over Duxueshan, Burog Kangri, and Zangser Kangri in the Inner Tibetan Plateau

The variation of glacier mass balance during the past decades remains poorly known for Duxueshan, Burog Kangri, and Zangser Kangri (DBZ) which are located in the Inner Tibetan Plateau (ITP), a transition zone with shifting influences between the westerlies and the Indian summer monsoon. In the present study, glacier area and mass changes were determined by topographic maps (TOPO), Landsat imagery and multi-temporal digital elevation models (DEMs) generated with TOPO, SRTM, TanDEM-X bistatic interferometric synthetic aperture radar (InSAR) images, and High Mountain Asia 8-m DEMs. On average, the glaciers showed a slight retreat from 343.27 ± 5.23 km2 in 1971 to 334.67 ± 3.21 km2 in 2018 (0.05 ± 0.04% a−1). However, glaciers lost mass at a rate of -0.32 ± 0.03 m w.e. a−1 from 1971 to 2012. For the 1999–2012 and 2012–2017 periods, mass balances of − 0.03 ± 0.16 and 0.09 ± 0.04 m w.e. a−1, respectively, were observed, which represents an approximately equilibrium. Two glaciers also advanced in our investigation period, and we confirmed one of them surged in 2015.

Spatial Changes in Glaciers Between 1965 and 2018 in Tirungkhad Watershed, Upper Sutlej Basin, Himachal Pradesh

This paper is an attempt to estimate spatial changes (area and length in the frontal area) in glaciers of Tirungkhad watershed in Upper Sutlej Basin. It also investigates the influence of topography on the changes in glaciers. High-resolution (spatial) Corona KH4A (1965), Landsat TM (1990) and Sentinel 2B (2018) imageries and Aster GDEM elevation data have been used in this study to estimate changes of the glaciers between 1965 and 2018. Total 41 glaciers with an area of 58.73 km2 were mapped from Sentinel 2B imagery (2018). Due to cloud cover, 20 glaciers were selected for change calculation. During the period, 1965–2018, the glaciers have lost 1.95 ± 1.06 km2 or 5.58 ± 3.16% (0.11 ± 0.06%/year) of its total area. Average area loss rate was 0.037 ± 0.020 km2/year during 1965–2018. The glacier area change showed almost uniform rate throughout the period 1965–2018 (– 0.038 ± 0.053 km2/year during 1990–2018, and – 0.035 ± 0.057 km2/year during 1965–1990). Average retreat rate of glaciers was 6.76 ± 1.91 m/year during 1965–2018 (6.95 ± 2.08 m/year during 1965–1990 and 6.60 ± 1.74 m/year during 1990–2018). The topographic analysis showed that smaller glaciers had lost a higher percentage of area as compared to the larger glaciers.

Glacier mass and area changes on the Kenai Peninsula, Alaska, 1986–2016

AbstractGlacier mass loss in Alaska has implications for global sea level rise, fresh water input into the Gulf of Alaska and terrestrial fresh water resources. We map all glaciers (>4000 km2) on the Kenai Peninsula, south central Alaska, for the years 1986, 1995, 2005 and 2016, using satellite images. Changes in surface elevation and volume are determined by differencing a digital elevation model (DEM) derived from Advanced Spaceborne Thermal Emission and Reflection Radiometer stereo images in 2005 from the Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar DEM of 2014. The glacier area shrunk by 543 ± 123 km2(12 ± 3%) between 1986 and 2016. The region-wide mass-balance rate between 2005 and 2014 was −0.94 ± 0.12 m w.e. a−1(−3.84 ± 0.50 Gt a−1), which is almost twice as negative than found for earlier periods in previous studies indicating an acceleration in glacier mass loss in this region. Area-averaged mass changes were most negative for lake-terminating glaciers (−1.37 ± 0.13 m w.e. a−1), followed by land-terminating glaciers (−1.02 ± 0.13 m w.e. a−1) and tidewater glaciers (−0.45 ± 0.14 m w.e. a−1). Unambiguous attribution of the observed acceleration in mass loss over the last decades is hampered by the scarcity of observational data, especially at high elevation, and by large interannual variability.

Comments on ‘Area changes of glaciers on active volcanoes in Latin America’ by Reinthaler and others (2019)

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Estimating the longevity of glaciers in the Xinjiang region of the Tian Shan through observations of glacier area change since the Little Ice Age using high-resolution imagery

AbstractGlacial retreat in response to warming climates in the arid Xinjiang region of northwestern China directly impacts downstream water resources available for local communities. We used high-resolution satellite imagery from 1969 to 2014 to delineate spatial changes in 54 active glaciers in the upper Kaidu River Basin in the Tian Shan as well as their past expanses during the Little Ice Age (LIA). We manually delineated their boundaries based on the interpretation of glacial, geomorphic and topographic features. From the total glacier surface area, we estimated glacier volume and mass. From 1969 to 2014, glacier area decreased by 10.1 ± 1.0 km2 (relative loss of 34.2 ± 3.5%) and mass by 1.025 ± 0.108 Gt (relative loss of 43 ± 4.6%). From the LIA maximum (est. 1586 CE) to 1969, relative losses were less (25.7 ± 4.3% area loss and 33.1 ± 5.7% mass loss). Our results indicate that glacier recession is accelerating over time and that the glaciers are currently losing over 1.5 times more relative area than elsewhere in the Tian Shan. Using linear and non-linear projections, we estimate that these glaciers may disappear between 2050 and 2150 CE if climatic warming continues at the same pace.