Glacial Lake Outburst Floods Events Research Articles

Simulation of Glacial Lake Outburst Flood in Southeastern Qinghai-Tibet Plateau—A Case Study of JiwenCo Glacial Lake

Glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs) is one of the main natural disasters in alpine areas, which can cause extreme destruction to downstream settlements and infrastructures. A moraine-dammed lake named JiwenCo glacial lake (JGL) in the southeastern Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau failed on 26 June 2020, destroying many buildings, roads, bridges, and farmlands along the flow path. We reconstructed the process of this GLOF event by the Hydrological Engineering Center’s River Analysis System (HEC-RAS) and examined the JGL’s evolution (area, length, and volume) before its outburst, based on the measured cross sections and hydrological data, videos, and pictures taken by inhabitants, DEM data, and Landsat Thematic Mapper (TM)/Enhanced Thematic Mapper (ETM+)/Operational Land Imager (OLI) images. The result showed that area, length, and volume of the JGL increased by 0.20 ± 0.07 km2, 0.66 ± 0.03 km, and 0.03 ± 0.001 km3 from 1988 to 2020 (before the outburst), respectively. Approximately 0.05 km3 of water volume was discharged with the dropped water level of 15.63 m after the outburst. The peak flow was 534.4 m3/s at breach and increased to 1,408.11 m3/s at Zhongyu town. The difference between the simulated and measured peak flows in Zhongyu town was 41.88 m3/s (3.53%), showing the high accuracy of the modeling results. For villages along the river-channel, the highest velocity was found in Yiga village (14.23 m/s) and the lowest was in Gongwa village (1.22 m/s). The maximum depth was gradually increased as the river reached downstream, 8.03 m in Yiga village and 50.96 m in Duiba village. The combination of landslide, high temperature, and extremely heavy precipitation resulted in this GLOF disaster. An integrated disaster prevention and mitigation plan needs to be developed for susceptible areas such as Niduzangbo basin that experienced two GLOFs in recent 10 years.

160 glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs) across the Tropical Andes since the Little Ice Age

Assessing the extent to which glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs) are increasing in frequency in modern times and whether their incidence is driven by anthropogenic climate change requires historical context. However, progress on this issue is hampered by incomplete GLOF inventories, especially in remote mountain regions. Here, we exploit high-resolution, multi-temporal satellite and aerial imagery, and documentary data to identify GLOF events across the glacierized Cordilleras of Peru and Bolivia, using a set of diagnostic geomorphic features. A total of 160 GLOFs from 151 individual sites are characterised and analysed, tripling the number of previously reported events. We provide statistics on location, magnitude, timing and characteristics of these events with implications for regional GLOF hazard identification and assessment. Furthermore, we describe several cases in detail and document a wide range of process chains associated with Andean GLOFs. • Our inventory consists of 160 glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs). • About two thirds of these have not been identified previously in the literature. • We analyze spatial and temporal patterns of GLOF occurrence. • We characterize pre-conditions, triggers and mechanisms of GLOFs.

Integrating historical, geomorphological and sedimentological insights to reconstruct past floods: Insights from Kea Point, Mt. Cook Village, Aotearoa New Zealand

Flood reconstruction is essential for establishing magnitude-frequency relationships and assessments of contemporary geohazards and risks. Traditionally, flood reconstructions rely upon the analysis of evidence acquired from a single discipline. This lack of integration limits the insights into a flood's source, pathway, and receptors (i.e. impacts). Here, our aim is to test the integration of qualitative historical documentary material with quantitative geomorphological and sedimentological evidence to reconstruct glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs) in 1913 at Kea Point, Mount Cook National Park, Aotearoa New Zealand. Written documentary records show that, following heavy rainfall, GLOF events occurred in January and March, after the temporary impoundment of water between the glacier surface and lateral moraine. Peak flood discharge was estimated from slope-area and exposed boulder measurements as 316–1077 m3s−1 and 496–1622 m3s−1 respectively. Sedimentological information, combined with geomorphic mapping, a DEM derived from Structure from Motion (SfM) photogrammetry, and satellite imagery was used to describe the overall physical impact of the GLOF. Information from written documentary records, however, enabled a more detailed reconstruction of the timeline of the two floods and their impacts proximate to the original ‘Hermitage Hotel’, which was subsequently relocated. Our integrated approach exemplifies the informative level of multi-faceted detail that can be retrieved for historical flood events. We propose a framework for future studies that seek to reconstruct flood events and their source, pathway and receptors through combining evidence from historical documents/artefacts, sedimentological/geomorphological data, and integration with environmental monitoring/modelling outputs.

Quantitative prioritization of potentially critical glacial Lakes in the Indus River basin using satellite derived parameters

Glacial Lake Outburst Floods (GLOFs) in a deglaciating environment, representing significant threat to downstream people and infrastructure, increasing the necessity of prioritization and assessment of potentially critical glacial lakes (PCGLs). In this current study, a comprehensive updated inventory of glacial lakes for the Indus River basin has been prepared, resulting in 5335 lakes (≥ 0.0025 ± 0.0006 km2), covering a total area of 173.95 ± 10.13 km2. Parameters have been derived using satellite data for two purposes, ‘preliminary screening’ and ‘quantitative assessment’. Using 4 parameters, 367 lakes were preliminary screened-in for further analysis, and 6 quantitative parameters were analysed using Equal Weights (EW) and Unequal Weights methods (UEW). These both methods were applied for two scenarios, scenario-1 which considers 73 lakes (≥ 0.1 km2), and scenario-2 which considers all 367 preliminary screened-in lakes (≥ 0.02 km2). UEW outperformed EW analysis and identified 20 and 48 high potential lakes for scenario-1 and scenario-2 respectively, where all 20 lakes of scenario-1 have been found in common with those of scenario-2, with a difference in their rank. But only 10 of them have storage volume ≥ 10 MCM and has been flagged as high-risk lakes, of which 6 are end-moraine dammed lakes and have been considered as PCGLs, due to their high bursting potential and self-destructive nature. Rest 4 high risk lakes along with remaining 38 lakes with volume < 10 MCM, are considered as critical lakes in case of dynamic mode of failure, caused due to mass movement of avalanche, landslide, heavy precipitation, etc. Highlights 152 historic GLOF events has been reported from 28 sites that occurred in Indus River basin Updated glacial lake inventory of Indus River basin using high resolution IRS satellite data Total of 5335 GL’s were mapped, and 48 of them are identified as high potential lakes UEW outperformed EW method to evaluate weighted integrated index for potentiality assessment 6 lakes are found to be as potentially critical glacial lakes (PCGLs) in the Indus River basin

Future Glacial Lake Outburst Flood (GLOF) hazard of the South Lhonak Lake, Sikkim Himalaya

The Teesta basin in Sikkim Himalaya hosts numerous glacial lakes in the high altitude glacierized region, including one of the largest and the fastest-growing South Lhonak Lake. While these lakes are mainly located in remote and unsettled mountain valleys, far-reaching glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs) may claim lives and damage assets up to tens of kilometers downstream. Therefore, evaluating GLOF hazard associated with current and potential future glacier-retreat-driven changes is of high importance. In this work, we assess the future GLOF hazard of the South Lhonak Lake by integrating glacier and hydrodynamic modeling to calculate the lake's future volume and hydraulic GLOF characteristics and impacts along the valley. We identify the increased susceptibility of the lake to potential avalanche impacts as the lake grows in the future. Here we model six avalanche scenarios of varying magnitudes to evaluate the impact-wave generated in the lake and overtopping flow at the dam. Avalanche simulations indicate that the frontal moraine is susceptible to overtopping. The overtopping flow hydraulics is evaluated along the channel assuming no erosion of the moraine. Further, we consider three lake-breach scenarios to model GLOFs originating from the lake, flow propagation, and its downstream impacts. The uncertainty in the breach parameters including breach width and time of failure are calculated to estimate the upper and the lower hydraulic limits of potential future GLOF events. Further, the uncertainty in the flow hydraulics was evaluated using dynamic flood routing of six GLOFs that originate from the lake. Hydrodynamic GLOF modeling resulted in a predicted peak discharge of 4311 m3s−1, 8000 m3s−1, and 12,487 m3s−1 for breach depths of 20 m, 30 m, and 40 m respectively. The large-potential scenario suggests that maximum flow depth and flow velocity at Chungthang, a town proximally located to a major hydropower station built-in 2015, could reach up to 25–30 m and 6–9 m s−1, respectively. Mapping infrastructure exposed to GLOFs in the Teesta valley shows that many settlements and assets located along the river channel at Chungthang are potentially exposed to future GLOFs, indicating the need to conduct a full environmental impact assessment and potentially undertake GLOF risk mitigation measures.

Monitoring Dynamic Evolution of the Glacial Lakes by Using Time Series of Sentinel-1A SAR Images

As an approach with great potential, the interpretation of space-borne synthetic aperture radar (SAR) images has been applied for monitoring the dynamic evolution of the glacial lakes in recent years. Considering unfavorable factors, such as inherent topography-induced effects and speckle noise in SAR images, it is challenging to accurately map and track the dynamic evolution of the glacial lakes by using multi-temporal SAR images. This paper presents an improved neighborhood-based ratio method utilizing a time series of SAR images to identify the boundaries of the glacial lakes and detect their spatiotemporal changes. The proposed method was applied to monitor the dynamic evolution of the two glacial lakes with periodic water discharge at the terminus of the Gongba Glacier in the southeastern Tibetan Plateau by utilizing 144 Sentinel-1A SAR images collected between October of 2014 and November of 2020. We first generated the reference intensity image (RII) by averaging all the SAR images collected when the water in the glacial lakes was wholly discharged, then calculated the neighborhood-based ratio between RII and each SAR intensity image, and finally identified the boundaries of the glacial lakes by a ratio threshold determined statistically. The time series of areas of the glacial lakes were estimated in this way, and the dates for water recharging and discharging were accordingly determined. The testing results showed that the water of the two glacial lakes began to be recharged in April and reached their peak in August and then remained stable dynamically until they began to shrink in October and were discharged entirely in February of the following year. We observed the expansion process with annual growth rates of 3.19% and 12.63% for these two glacial lakes, respectively, and monitored a glacial lake outburst flood event in July 2018. The validation by comparing with the results derived from Sentinel-2A/B optical images indicates that the accuracy for identifying the boundaries of the glacial lakes with Sentinel-1A SAR images can reach up to 96.49%. Generally, this contribution demonstrates the reliability and precision of SAR images to provide regular updates for the dynamic monitoring of glacial lakes.

Modeling lake outburst and downstream hazard assessment of the Lower Barun Glacial Lake, Nepal Himalaya

Climate change-driven retreat of glaciers is producing thousands of glacial lakes across mountain regions. These lakes generally grow, coalesce into larger lakes that may produce increased downstream hazards and risks due to glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs). This study assesses such hazards of Lower Barun Lake located near Mount Everest, Nepal. We model a series of scenarios, including two potential avalanches that enter the lake from the surrounding slope and eight potential GLOFs from the lake. To evaluate the susceptibility of the frontal moraine to overtopping, we characterize the initial avalanche-induced surge of water over the moraine caused by the kinetic energy of arriving masses and possible tsunami-like events. Further, we present physical hydrodynamic models that reveal the hazard from the potential overtopping and GLOF events along the Barun-Arun river valley. Special attention is given to analyze the flow hydraulics at six downstream settlements. To estimate potential impacts at each location, two extreme-magnitude, two high-magnitude, two moderate-magnitude, and two low-magnitude GLOFs were hydraulically evaluated for the present lake dimension and the modeled future growth of the lake. As with most hydrological processes, the magnitude and frequency of GLOFs from Lower Barun Lake have an inverse, albeit uncertain, relationship, but the potential impacts on people and infrastructure are extremely sensitive to the events’ magnitude. The flow dynamics results indicate that an overtopping flood without erosion of the damming moraine causes minimal impact in the valley. The extreme-magnitude and high-magnitude GLOF cases, where the moraine is incised, have a larger impact but differ greatly in magnitude at each of the downstream settlements. The moderate-magnitude and low-magnitude GLOFs, while the most frequent type, have limited volume and peak discharge, causing less impact downstream. Our calculations only portray the part of the hydrograph representing lake overfill due to a volume of ice or rock entering the lake, and the volume of the lake that could drain from a breach of the damming moraine down to specified depths over specified time periods.

Evaluation of Glacial Lake Outburst Flood Susceptibility Using Multi-Criteria Assessment Framework in Mahalangur Himalaya

Ongoing recession of glaciers in the Himalaya in response to global climate change has far-reaching impacts on the formation and expansion of glacial lakes. The subsequent glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs) are a significant threat to lives and livelihoods as they can cause catastrophic damage up to hundreds of kilometres downstream. Previous studies have reported the rapid expansion of glacial lakes and several notable destructive past GLOF events in the Mahalangur Himalaya, suggesting a necessity of timely and updated GLOF susceptibility assessment. Here, an updated inventory of glacial lakes across the Mahalangur Himalaya is developed based on 10-m Sentinel-2 satellite data from 2018. Additionally, the GLOF susceptibilities of glacial lakes (≥0.045 km2) are evaluated using a multi-criteria-based assessment framework where six key factors are selected and analyzed. Weight for each factor was assigned from the analytical hierarchy process. Glacial lakes are classified into very low, low, medium, high, and very high GLOF susceptibility classes depending upon their susceptibility index based on analysis of three historical GLOF events in the study area. The result shows the existence of 345 glacial lakes (&amp;gt;0.001 km2) with a total area of 18.80 ± 1.35 km2 across the region in 2018. Furthermore, out of the 64 glacial lakes (≥0.045 km2) assessed, seven were identified with very high GLOF susceptibility. We underline that pronounced glacier-lake interaction will likely increase the GLOF susceptibility. Regular monitoring and more detailed fieldworks for these highly susceptible glacial lakes are necessary. This will benefit in early warning and disaster risk reduction of downstream communities.

Inventory and GLOF hazard assessment of glacial lakes in the Sikkim Himalayas, India

Glacial Lake Outburst Floods (GLOFs) are a recurring hazard in the Himalayas, posing significant threat to downstream communities. The North Sikkim district of India, comprising the upper reaches of the Teesta River in the Eastern Himalayas, has experienced past GLOF events. The identification of lakes susceptible to this phenomenon is therefore paramount. Using multi-temporal satellite images, this study tracks lake growth in the region, revealing that 203 new lakes had developed herein during the observation period (2000–2018). Of these, 82 lakes had formed during 2011–2018 alone; indicating marked glacial retreat and consequent lake area growth, alongside a rising temperature trend. Using various weighted geometric and geomorphic parameters, the 36 most hazardous lakes were identified, from which the 10 lakes posing the greatest GLOF threat were discerned. These lakes are mostly situated along the main snowline and Great Himalayan water-divide in the north-eastern part of Sikkim and should be monitored continuously.

Recession of Gya Glacier and the 2014 glacial lake outburst flood in the Trans-Himalayan region of Ladakh, India

This study assessed spatiotemporal changes at Gya Glacier, the associated development of a proglacial lake, and reconstructed the 2014 outburst flood that struck Gya Village in the Trans-Himalayan region of Ladakh, India. This study analyzed and for the first time modeled a Glacial Lake Outburst Flood (GLOF) event in the Trans-Himalayan region of Ladakh. Glacier and glacial lakes changes were quantified using remote sensing data supplemented with field observations. Glacier ice-thickness and glacier-bed overdeepenings were modeled using a shear-stress based model, GlabTop (Glacier-bed Topography). The reconstruction of the 2014 GLOF and the potential hazard assessment of Gya Lake were carried out using the hydrodynamic model HEC-RAS; results were validated against ground-collected data. Temporal evaluation of satellite data revealed a 45.6% loss in the total glacier area between 1969 and 2019. The earliest snow-free image available for the region shows that a proglacial lake existed as early as 1969 with an area of 3.06 ha. The lake has expanded to ~11 ha in 2019. Results from the GlabTop model suggest that the lake could grow further up to 12 ha in the future. Field-based geomorphic indicators suggest that the 2014 GLOF event resulted from a piping failure of the frontal moraine destroying numerous agricultural fields, some buildings, downstream infrastructure, and eroded natural channel embankments. The reconstruction of the event revealed that 25% of the lake waters drained out with a peak discharge of 470 m3s−1, inundating an area of ~4 km2 around Gya Village. However, a complete breaching of the terminal moraine could result in an event that would be 5.5 times larger than the 2014 GLOF. Therefore, this study could be useful not only in planning disaster-resilient infrastructure around proglacial lake environments in the cold-arid Ladakh but also in framing mitigation plans to reduce risk for vulnerable downstream communities.

Analysis of glacial lake outburst flood terrain and sedimentary deposits in Valle Soler, Northern Patagonia Icefield

ABSTRACT Glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs) pose an increasing hazard to communities living downstream of glaciated areas of the Northern Patagonia Icefield (NPI). The proliferation of GLOF events poses a growing hazard to human development and infrastructure which is rapidly expanding into formerly isolated areas. The outlet glaciers on the eastern flank of the NPI, in particular, have experienced an increase in the frequency of GLOFs, threatening downstream communities with the potential for future events. Using a satellite-derived DEM and UAV imagery, we evaluated flood parameters of a 16 March 1989 GLOF event in the Valle Soler. Calculated flood volume was in excess of 140 × 106 m3 while the peak discharge was approximately 20,000 m3/s. This newly calculated flood discharge value distinguishes this event as the largest recorded glacial moraine outburst flood in the literature and is significantly larger than previous estimates (1,800–2,000 m3/s) for this incident.

Reconstructing the History of Glacial Lake Outburst Floods (GLOF) in the Kanchenjunga Conservation Area, East Nepal: An Interdisciplinary Approach

An interdisciplinary field investigation of historic glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs) in the Kanchenjunga region of Nepal was conducted between April and May, 2019. Oral history and field measurements suggested that at least six major GLOFs have occurred in the region since 1921. A remote sensing analysis confirmed the occurrence of the six GLOFs mentioned by informants, including two smaller flood events not mentioned that had occurred at some point before 1962. A numerical simulation of the Nangama GLOF suggested that it was triggered by an ice/debris avalanche of some 800,000 m3 of material, causing a surge wave that breached the terminal moraine and released an estimated 11.2 × 106 m3 ± 1.4 × 106 m3 of water. Debris from the flood dammed the Pabuk Khola river 2 km below the lake to form what is today known as Chheche Pokhari lake. Some concern has been expressed for the possibility of a second GLOF from Nangama as the result of continued and growing landslide activity from its right lateral moraine. Regular monitoring of all lakes and glaciers is recommended to avoid and/or mitigate the occurrence of future GLOF events in the region. Collectively, the paper demonstrates the benefits and utility of interdisciplinary research approaches to achieving a better understanding of past and poorly documented GLOF events in remote, data-scarce high mountain environments.

Glacial Lake Inventory and Lake Outburst Flood/Debris Flow Hazard Assessment after the Gorkha Earthquake in the Bhote Koshi Basin

Glacial lake outburst floods (GLOF) evolve into debris flows by erosion and sediment entrainment while propagating down a valley, which highly increases peak discharge and volume and causes destructive damage downstream. This study focuses on GLOF hazard assessment in the Bhote Koshi Basin (BKB), where was highly developed glacial lakes and was intensely affected by the Gorkha earthquake. A new 2016 glacial lake inventory was established, and six unreported GLOF events were identified with geomorphic outburst evidence from GaoFen-1 satellite images and Google Earth. A new method was proposed to assess GLOF hazard, in which large numbers of landslides triggered by earthquake were considered to enter into outburst floods enlarge the discharge and volume of debris flow in the downstream. Four GLOF hazard classes were derived according to glacial lake outburst potential and a flow magnitude assessment matrix, in which 11 glacial lakes were identified to have very high hazard and 24 to have high hazard. The GLOF hazard in BKB increased after the earthquake due to landslide deposits, which increased by 216.03 × 106 m3, and provides abundant deposits for outburst floods to evolve into debris flows. We suggest that in regional GLOF hazard assessment, small glacial lakes should not be overlooked for landslide deposit entrainment along a flood route that would increase the peak discharge, especially in earthquake-affected areas where large numbers of landslides were triggered.

Glacial Lake Outburst Flood (GLOF) Events and Water Response in A Patagonian Fjord

As a result of climate change, the frequency of glacial lake outburst floods (GLOF) is increasing in Chilean Patagonia. Yet, the impacts of the flood events on the physics and biology of fjords is still unknown. Current velocities, density, in-situ zooplankton samples, and volume backscatter (Sv) derived from an acoustic profiler were used to explore the response of circulation and zooplankton abundance in a Patagonian fjord to GLOF events in 2010 and 2014. Maximum Sv was found both during the GLOFs and in late winter to early spring of 2010 and the fall and summer of 2014. The increase in Sv in late winter and spring of 2010 corresponded to multiple zooplankton species found from in-situ net sampling. In addition, diel vertical migrations were found during this seasonal increase both qualitatively and in a spectral analysis. Concurrently with zooplankton increases, wind forcing produced a deepening of the pycnocline. Zooplankton abundance peaked in the fjord when the pycnocline depth deepened due to wind forcing and throughout the entire spring season, indicating that mixing conditions could favor secondary production. These results were corroborated by the 2014 data, which indicate that weather events in the region impact both fjord physics and ecology.

Application of 1D and 2D hydrodynamic modeling to study glacial lake outburst flood (GLOF) and its impact on a hydropower station in Central Himalaya

The existence of numerous lakes in the higher reaches of the Himalaya makes it a potential natural hazard as it imposes a risk of glacial lake outburst flood (GLOF), which can cause great loss of life and infrastructure in the downstream regions. Hydrodynamic modeling of a natural earth-dam failure and hydraulic routing of the breach hydrograph allow us to characterize the flow behavior of a potential flood along a given flow channel. In the present study, the flow hydraulics of a potential GLOF generated due to the moraine failure of the Satopanth lake located in the Alaknanda basin is analyzed using one-dimensional and two-dimensional hydrodynamic computations. Field measurements and mapping were carried out at the lake site and along the valley using high-resolution DGPS points. The parameters of Manning’s roughness coefficient and terrain elevation were derived using satellite-based raster, the accuracy of which is verified using field data. The volume of the lake is calculated using area-based scaling method. Unsteady flood routing of the dam-break outflow hydrograph is performed along the flow channel to compute hydraulic parameters of peak discharge, water depth, flow velocity, inundation and stream power at a hydropower dam site located 28 km downstream of the lake. Assuming the potential GLOF event occurs contemporaneously with a 100-year return period flood, unsteady hydraulic routing of the combined flood discharge is performed to evaluate its impact on the hydropower dam. The potential GLOF resulted in a peak discharge of ~ 2600 m3s−1 at the dam site which arrived 38 min after the initiation of the moraine-failure event. The temporal characteristics of the flood wave analyzed using 2D unsteady simulations revealed maximum inundation depth and flow velocity of 7.12 m and 7.6 ms−1, respectively, at the dam site. Assuming that the control gates of the dam remain closed, water depth increases at a rate of 4.5 m per minute and overflows the dam approximately 4 min after the flood wave arrival.

Development of Supraglacial Ponds in the Everest Region, Nepal, between 1989 and 2018

Several supraglacial ponds are developing and increasing in size and number in the Himalayan region. They are the precursors of large glacial lakes and may become potential for glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs). Recently, GLOF events originating from supraglacial ponds were recorded; however, the spatial, temporal, and seasonal distributions of these ponds are not well documented. We chose 23 debris-covered glaciers in the Everest region, Nepal, to study the development of supraglacial ponds. We used historical Landsat images (30-m resolution) from 1989 to 2017, and Sentinel-2 (10-m resolution) images from 2016 to 2018 to understand the long-term development and seasonal variations of these ponds. We also used fine-resolution (0.5–2 m) WorldView and GeoEye imageries to reveal the high-resolution inventory of these features and these images were also used as references for accuracy assessments. We observed a continuous increase in the area and number of ponds from 1989–2017, with minor fluctuations. Similarly, seasonal variations were observed at the highest ponded area in the pre- and postmonsoon seasons, and lowest ponded area in the winter season. Substantial variations of the ponds were also observed among glaciers corresponding to their size, slope, width, moraine height, and elevation. The persistency and densities of the ponds with sizes &gt;0.005 km2 were found near the glacier terminuses. Furthermore, spillway lakes on the Ngozompa, Bhote Koshi, Khumbu, and Lumsamba glaciers were expanding at a faster rate, indicating a trajectory towards large lake development. Our analysis also found that Sentinel-2 (10-m resolution) has good potential to study the seasonal changes of supraglacial ponds, while fine-resolution (&lt;2 m) imagery is able to map the supraglacial ponds with high accuracy and can help in understanding the surrounding morphology of the glacier.

The 2015 Chileno Valley glacial lake outburst flood, Patagonia

Glacial Lake Outburst Floods (GLOFs) have become increasingly common over the past century in response to climate change, posing risks for human activities in many mountain regions. In this paper we document and reconstruct the sequence of events and impact of a large GLOF that took place in December 2015 in the Chileno Valley, Patagonia. Hydrograph data suggests that the flood continued for around eight days with an estimated total discharge of 105.6 × 106 m3 of water. The sequence of events was as follows: (1) A large debris flow entered the lake from two steep and largely non-vegetated mountain gullies located northeast of the Chileno Glacier terminus. (2) Water displaced in the lake by the debris flow increased the discharge through the Chileno Lake outflow. (3) Lake and moraine sediments were eroded by the flood. (4) Eroded sediments were redistributed downstream by the GLOF. The post-GLOF channel at the lake outlet widened in some places by >130 m and the surface elevation of the terrain lowered by a maximum of 38.8 ± 1.5 m. Farther downstream, large amounts of entrained sediment were deposited at the head of an alluvial plain and these sediments produced an ~340 m wide fan with an average increase in surface elevation over the pre-GLOF surface of 4.6 ± 1.5 m. We estimate that around 3.5 million m3 of material was eroded from the flood-affected area whilst over 0.5 million m3 of material was deposited in the downstream GLOF fan. The large debris flow that triggered the GLOF was probably a paraglacial response to glacier recession from its Little Ice Age limits. We suggest that GLOFs will continue to occur in these settings in the future as glaciers further recede in response to global warming and produce potentially unstable lakes. Detailed studies of GLOF events are currently limited in Patagonia and the information presented here will therefore help to inform future glacial hazard assessments in this region.

Moraine dam breach and glacial lake outburst flood generation by physical and numerical models

Summary The areas of glacial lakes in the Himalayas continue to increase alarmingly due to global warming with consequent risk of glacial lake outburst flood (GLOF). The outburst is most common for moraine-dammed lakes as a result of a failure of the dam by overtopping and erosion or piping due to seepage. In the present context, GLOF events, especially for the moraine dam failure process needs to be predicted to assess the drastic and detrimental impacts on the downstream river valley. This study focuses on validating an integrated model for simulating the failure of moraine dam by overtopping and erosion using a coupled numerical simulation model. The proposed numerical methodology is validated with the data from experiments in laboratory scale physical models. The results of the model are compared for both the erosional profiles during collapse of the dam and the resulting outflowing flood hydrograph. The primary finding is that the moraine dam height and the volume of the lake upstream of the dam are the most sensitive parameters influencing the GLOF peak. The model is also applied to the field problem of the Tangjiashan lake outburst and dam failure and shows reasonably good agreement with observations. The validated model is also run for the South Lhonak glacial lake in the Sikkim Himalayas, India to obtain the probable flood hydrograph in case of failure of the moraine dam.

An inventory of historical glacial lake outburst floods in the Himalayas based on remote sensing observations and geomorphological analysis

Glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs) are a unique type of natural hazard in the cryosphere that may result in catastrophic fatalities and damages. The Himalayas are known as one of the world's most GLOF-vulnerable zones. Effective hazard assessments and risk management require a thorough inventory of historical GLOF events across the Himalayas, which is hitherto absent. Existing studies imply that numerous historical GLOF events are contentious because of discrepant geographic coordinates, names, or outburst time, requiring further verifications. This study reviews and verifies over 60 historical GLOF events across the Himalayas using a comprehensive method that combines literature documentations, archival remote sensing observations, geomorphological analysis, and field investigations. As a result, three unreported GLOF events were discovered from remote sensing images and geomorphological analysis. Eleven suspicious events were identified and suggested to be excluded. The properties of five outburst lakes, i.e., Degaco, Chongbaxia Tsho, Geiqu, Lemthang Tsho, and a lake on Tshojo Glacier, were corrected or updated. A total of 51 GLOF events were verified to be convincing, and these outburst lakes were classified into three categories according to their statuses in the past decades, namely disappeared (12), stable (30), and expanding (9). Statistics of the verified GLOF events show that GLOF tended to occur between April and October in the Himalayas. We suggest that more attention should be paid to rapidly expanding glacial lakes with high possibility of repetitive outbursts. This study also demonstrates the effectiveness of integrating remote sensing and geomorphic interpretations in identifying and verifying GLOF events in remote alpine environments. This inventory of GLOFs with a range of critical attributes (e.g., locations, time, and mechanisms) will benefit the continuous monitoring and prediction of potentially dangerous glacial lakes and contribute to outburst-induced risk assessments and hazard mitigations.

Quick Release of Internal Water Storage in a Glacier Leads to Underestimation of the Hazard Potential of Glacial Lake Outburst Floods From Lake Merzbacher in Central Tian Shan Mountains

AbstractGlacial meltwater and ice calving contribute to the flood volume of glacial lakes such as Lake Merzbacher in the Tian Shan Mountains of central Asia. In this study, we simulated the lake's volume by constructing an empirical relationship between the area of Lake Merzbacher, determined from satellite images, and the lake's water storage, derived from digital elevation models. Results showed that the lake water supply rate before Glacial Lake Outburst Floods (GLOFs) generally agreed well with those during the GLOFs from 2009 to 2012 but not in 2008 and 2015. Furthermore, we found that the combination of glacial meltwater and ice calving is not enough to fully explain the supply rate during GLOFs in 1996 and 1999, suggesting other factors affect the supply rate during GLOFs as well. To examine this further, we compared the water supply rate before and during GLOF events in 1999 and 2008. We inferred that quickly released short‐term and intermediate‐term water storage by glaciers have likely contributed to both flood events in those years. This study highlights the need to improve our understanding of the supply component of outburst floods, such as irregularly released stored water may lead to GLOF events with generally three different types: case I (singular event‐triggered englacial water release), case II (glacier melt due to temperature changes), and case III (englacial water release mixed with glacier melt).