Expansion Of Glacial Lakes Research Articles

Mass Balance of Maritime Glaciers in the Southeastern Tibetan Plateau during Recent Decades

Maritime glaciers in the southeastern Tibetan Plateau (SETP) are particularly sensitive to changes in climate, and their changes directly and severely affect regional water security and glacier-related hazards. Given their large societal importance, a better understanding of the mass balance of maritime glaciers in the SETP, a key variable for characterizing the state of glacier health, is of great scientific interest. In this review, we synthesize in situ, satellite-based observations and simulations that present an overall accelerating negative mass balance of maritime glaciers in the SETP in recent decades. We hereby highlight a significant spatiotemporal difference in the mass balance of maritime glaciers across the SETP and investigate the drivers of the accelerated mass loss of these glaciers in recent years. We find that accelerated glacier mass loss agrees with the variabilities in temperatures rising and precipitation decreasing at regional scales, as well as the spatial patterns of widespread melt hotspots (e.g., thin debris, ice cliffs, supraglacial ponds, and surface streams), the expansion of glacial lakes, enlarged ice crevasses, and frequent ice avalanches. Finally, the challenges of the mass balance study of maritime glaciers and future perspectives are proposed. Our review confirms the urgent need to improve the existing glacier inventory and establish comprehensive monitoring networks in data-scarce glacierized catchments, and it suggests paying particular attention to the development of glacier mass-balance models that coupe multiple physical processes at different interfaces to predict the status of maritime glaciers and their responses to climate change. This study can inform the sustainable management of water resources and the assessment of socio-economic vulnerability due to glacier-related hazards in the SETP and its surroundings in the context of marked atmospheric warming.

High resolution Tibetan Plateau regional reanalysis 1961-present

With the rapid global warming in recent decades, the Tibetan Plateau (TP) has suffered severe impacts, such as glacier retreat, glacial lake expansion, and permafrost degradation, which threaten the lives and properties of the local and downstream populations. Regional Reanalysis (RR) is vital for TP due to the limitations of observations. In this work, a 62-year (1961–2022) long atmospheric regional reanalysis with spatial resolution of 9 km (convective gray-zone scale) and temporal resolution of 1 hour over the TP (TPRR) was developed using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model, combined with re-initialization method, spectral nudging (SN), and several optimizations. TPRR is forced by ERA5 at hourly intervals. TPRR outperforms ERA5, realistically capturing climatological characteristics and seasonal variations of precipitation and T2m (air temperature at 2m above ground level). Moreover, TPRR better reproduces the frequency and intensity of precipitation, as well as the diurnal cycle of precipitation. This study also quantifies the wetting trend of 0.0071 mm/year over the TP amid global warming using TPRR.

Glacier thinning, recession and advance, and the associated evolution of a glacial lake between 1966 and 2021 atAusterdalsbreen, westernNorway

AbstractThe Jostedalsbreen is the largest ice cap in Norway and mainland Europe. Rapid retreat of many of its outlet glaciers since the 2000s has led to the formation of several glacial lakes. Processes causing the formation and expansion of glacial lakes and their interaction with a glacier and terminal moraine have not been widely addressed yet. In this study, we investigate the degradation of the front of the southeast‐facing outlet glacier Austerdalsbreen. Based on a variety of remotely sensed data (UAV‐based and airborne orthophotos and DEMs, satellite images), we analyze the coincident glacial and proglacial changes of Austerdalsbreen and quantify the evolution of this transition zone during the last decades. In particular, we focus on the short‐term evolution of the glacial lake since 2010, we examine the context of a glacier advance in the 1990s, and we report long‐term changes by utilizing 1960s imagery. We discuss the evolution and conditions of Austerdalsbreen compared to other outlet glaciers of Jostedalsbreen. Overall, the glacier terminus has experienced a recession in the last decades. The 1990s terminus advance was more restricted than at other nearby outlet glaciers due to glacier surface debris cover, which is a critical factor for the glacier and lake evolution. However, in the most recent period, since 2012, a distinct expansion of a glacial lake is quantifiable. Since the rates of glacier surface lowering also considerably increased since approximately 2017 and the glacier retreated since the beginning of the 2000s with a clear maximum length decrease in 2015, we interpret the recently formed glacial lake as a contributory factor of glacial changes.

Upland river planform morphodynamics and associated riverbank erosion: Insights from channel migration of the upper Yarlung Tsangpo river

River meandering and lateral migration, caused by riverbank erosion, is a major global threat to soil, sediment, lands, and habitats. However, compared to the densely populated lowland floodplains, the upland channel morphodynamics of free-flowing rivers in a complex high-elevation alluvial setting have received less attention. In this study, we quantitatively investigated channel morphodynamics and associated frozen bank migration in the upper Yarlung Tsangpo River in the Himalayan headwater basin from the 1980s to the 2010s. By combining remote sensing analysis with field investigations, we found mean migration rates of 244 gravel-bed river bends ranging from 1.63 m/yr in the 1980s to 2.76 m/yr in the 2010s, with a maximum rate of 18.61 m/yr. The highest migration rates were associated with bends that had a width-normalised curvature radius between 3.0 and 5.0 and a sinuosity between 1.2 and 1.5. A ∼69% increase in river-bend migration and 30% more frequent bend cutoffs coincided nicely with the rapid expansion of glacial lakes due to a ∼1 °C increase in mean annual air temperature over the past four decades. Positive correlations were observed between channel migration rate and temperature, mean glacial lake area, and runoff. These results highlight the importance of the unique channel morphodynamics and the intense lateral movements of upland rivers. The close link between these dynamics and climate change suggests that a warmer world may significantly influence bank erosion and associated ecosystem processes of upland alluvial systems, which are essential for comprehending frozen channel dynamics and developing strategies for habitat protection in uplands worldwide.

A Comparative Study of a Typical Glacial Lake in the Himalayas before and after Engineering Management

One of the main glacier-related natural hazards that are common to alpine locations is the occurrence of glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs), which can seriously harm downstream towns and infrastructure. GLOFs have increased in frequency in the central Himalayas in recent years as a result of global warming, and careful management of glacial lakes is a crucial step in catastrophe prevention. In this study, field surveys were conducted on 28 August 2020 and 1 August 2021 with the help of an unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) and a boat bathymetric system on an unmanned surface vessel (USV), combined with 22 years of Landsat series imagery and Sentinel-2 MSI imagery data. Spatial analysis was then used to investigate changes in lake surface conditions, dam stability, and surrounding topography before and after an integrated project of the Jialong Co lake. The results show that: (1) from 2000 to 2020 (before engineering management), the area of the Jialong Co glacial lake increased from 0.2148 ± 0.0176 km2 to 0.5921 ± 0.0003 km2. The glacial lake expansion rate from 2000 to 2010 (0.0145 km2/a) was greater than the rate from 2011 to 2020 (6.92 × 10−6 km2/a). In 2021 (after engineering treatment), the glacial lake perimeter, area, and volume decreased by 0.6014 km, 0.1136 km2, and 1.90 × 107 m3, respectively. The amount of excavation during the project treatment was 8.13 million square meters, and the amount of filling was 1.24 million square meters. According to the results of the unmanned surface vessel (USV), the elevation of the lake surface dropped from 4331 m to 4281 m, and the water level dropped by 50 m (the designed safe water level line dropped by 30 m). (2) The results of the UAV topographic survey and geomorphological analysis showed that the engineered reinforcement of the outlet channel and surrounding dam effectively mitigated severe scouring of the foot of the final moraine at the outlet of the spillway, as well as the likelihood of glacial lake outbursts caused by ice avalanches and landslides. (3) The comprehensive engineering treatment of this typical glacial lake effectively lowered the water level and improved the stability of the moraine ridge and lake dam, providing a scientific foundation for other glacial lake outburst risk assessments and disaster mitigation and management measures. Thus, it is critical to evaluate the impact of comprehensive engineering management of key glacial lakes to support glacial lake management.

Glacial Lake Outburst Flood Hazard and Risk Assessment of Gangabal Lake in the Upper Jhelum Basin of Kashmir Himalaya Using Geospatial Technology and Hydrodynamic Modeling

Climate warming-induced glacier recession has resulted in the development and rapid expansion of glacial lakes in the Himalayan region. The increased melting has enhanced the susceptibility for Glacial Lake Outburst Floods (GLOFs) in the region. The catastrophic failure of potentially dangerous glacial lakes could be detrimental to human life and infrastructure in the adjacent low-lying areas. This study attempts to assess the GLOF hazard of Gangabal lake, located in the Upper Jhelum basin of Kashmir Himalaya, using the combined approaches of remote sensing, GIS, and dam break modeling. The parameters, such as area change, ice thickness, mass balance, and surface velocity of the Harmukh glacier, which feeds Gangabal lake, were also assessed using multitemporal satellite data, GlabTop-2, and the Cosi–Corr model. In the worst-case scenario, 100% volume (73 × 106 m3) of water was considered to be released from the lake with a breach formation time (bf) of 40 min, breach width (bw) of 60 m, and producing peak discharge of 16,601.03 m3/s. Our results reveal that the lake area has increased from 1.42 km2 in 1972 to 1.46 km2 in 1981, 1.58 km2 in 1992, 1.61 km2 in 2001, 1.64 km2 in 2010, and 1.66 km2 in 2020. The lake area experienced 17 ± 2% growth from 1972 to 2020 at an annual rate of 0.005 km2. The feeding glacier (Harmukh) contrarily indicated a significant area loss of 0.7 ± 0.03 km2 from 1990 (3.36 km2) to 2020 (2.9 km2). The glacier has a maximum, minimum, and average depth of 85, 7.3, and 23.46 m, respectively. In contrast, the average velocity was estimated to be 3.2 m/yr with a maximum of 7 m/yr. The results obtained from DEM differencing show an average ice thickness loss of 11.04 ± 4.8 m for Harmukh glacier at the rate of 0.92 ± 0.40 m/yr between 2000 and 2012. Assessment of GLOF propagation in the worst-case scenario (scenario-1) revealed that the maximum flood depth varies between 3.87 and 68 m, the maximum flow velocity between 4 and 75 m/s, and the maximum water surface elevation varies between 1548 and 3536 m. The resultant flood wave in the worst-case scenario will reach the nearest location (Naranaag temple) within 90 min after breach initiation with a maximum discharge of 12,896.52 m3 s−1 and maximum flood depth and velocity of 10.54 m and 10.05 m/s, respectively. After evaluation of GLOF impacts on surrounding areas, the area under each inundated landuse class was estimated through the LULC map generated for both scenarios 1 and 2. In scenario 1, the total potentially inundated area was estimated as 5.3 km2, which is somewhat larger than 3.46 km2 in scenario 2. We suggest a location-specific comprehensive investigation of Gangbal lake and Harmukh glacier by applying the advanced hazard and risk assessment models/methods for better predicting a probable future GLOF event.

The Study of Soil Bacterial Diversity and the Influence of Soil Physicochemical Factors in Meltwater Region of Ny-Ålesund, Arctic

Global climate change has caused the changes of the ecological environment in the Arctic region, including sea ice melting, runoff increase, glacial lake expansion, and a typical meltwater area has formed in the Arctic coastal area. In this study, the meltwater areas near six different characteristic areas of Ny-Ålesund in 2018 were taken as the research objects, and high-throughput sequencing of V3–V4 regions of all samples were performed using 16S rDNA. Among the soil samples of six glacial meltwater areas in Ny-Ålesund, Arctic, the meltwater area near the reservoir bay had the highest bacterial abundance, and the meltwater area near the sand had the lowest one. The dominant phyla in soil samples were Proteobacteria, Actinobacteria, Acidobacteria. The NH4+-N content in intertidal soil was higher than that in subtidal soil. Through WGCNA analysis and LEFSE analysis, it was found that the core bacteria significantly related to NH4+-N were basically distributed in the intertidal area. For example, Nitrosomonadaceae, Nitrospira and Sphingomonas were the core bacteria showed significant different abundance in the intertidal area, which have the ability to metabolize NH4+-N. Our findings suggest that NH4+-N plays an important role in soil bacterial community structure in the Arctic meltwater areas.

Controls on Alpine Lake Dynamics, Tien Shan, Central Asia

The number and area of alpine lakes in Tien Shan (TS) are rapidly growing in response to a warming climate and retreating glaciers. This paper presents a comparative analysis of lake classification and changes by dividing alpine lakes (within a 10 km buffer of the glacier margins) into four types (supraglacial lakes, proglacial lakes, extraglacial lakes and non-glacial lakes), and subsequently determining the driving forces of change across the TS region from 1990 to 2015. The analysis utilized multiple satellite images and climatic data from gridded data sets and meteorological station observations. The results indicate that the total number and area of glacial lakes continuously increased during the study period, whereas non-glacial lakes intermittently expanded. Specifically, the total number and area of all glacial lakes (supraglacial lakes, proglacial lakes and extraglacial lakes) increased by 45.45% and 27.08%, respectively. Non-glacial lakes, in contrast, increased in quantity and area by 23.92% and 19.01%, respectively. Alpine lakes are closer to glaciers at high altitudes; in fact, some (e.g., proglacial lakes) are connected to glacier termini, and these show the highest expansion speed during the study period. The area of proglacial lakes expanded by 60.32%. Extraglacial lakes expanded by 21.06%. Supraglacial lakes, in marked contrast to the other types, decreased in area by 3.74%. Widespread rises in temperature and glacier wastage were the primary cause of the steady expansion of glacial lakes, particularly those linked to small- and medium-sized glaciers distributed in the Eastern TS where glacial lakes have rapidly increased. Both proglacial and extraglacial lakes expanded by 6.47%/a and 2%/a, respectively, from 1990 to 2015. While these proglacial and extraglacial lakes are located in largely glacierized areas, lakes in the Central TS exhibited the slowest expansion, increasing in area by 1.44%/a and 0.74%/a, respectively. Alterations in non-glacial lake areas were driven by changes in precipitation and varied spatially over the region. This study has substantial implications for the state of water resources under the complex regional changes in climate in the TS and can be used to develop useful water-resource management and planning strategies throughout Central Asia.

Rapidly Expanding Glacial Lakes in Nepal Himalaya

The retreat and shrinkage of glaciers due to climate change are the causes for the formation and expansion of glacial lakes in the Himalayas. This study presents the rapidly expanding glacial lakes in Nepal Himalayas between 1988 and 2018 based on the published glacial lake inventories produced from Landsat imageries (30 m). Glacier-fed end moraine-dammed glacial lakes whose surface area was?0.1 km2 in 2018 with an expansion rate of more than 30% in 1988-2018 were regarded as rapidly expanding glacial lakes. The results show that 19 rapidly expanding glacial lakes are heterogeneously distributed in different sub-basins of Nepal. Among the sub-basins, Dudh Koshi sub-basin has a maximum (5) number of rapidly expanding glacial lakes. The total surface area of these 19 glacial lakes expanded by ~133%, from 4.12±0.61 km2 in 1988 to 9.62±1.04 km2 in 2018. Regular monitoring of rapidly expanding glacial lakes is required because the rapid expansion heightens the risk of GLOF by developing more potential flood volume and the expanding lakes can reach sites of possible avalanches.

Inventory and Spatiotemporal Patterns of Glacial Lakes in the HKH-TMHA Region from 1990 to 2020

The Himalayan, Karakoram, and Hindu Kush (HKH-TMHA) are the three main mountain ranges in the high-mountain Asia region, covering the China–Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC). In this study, we identified glacial lakes in the HKH-TMHA region based on multitemporal Landsat images taken from 1990 to 2020. We analyzed the spatial distribution and evolution of glacial lakes in the HKH-TMHA region from the perspective of their elevation, size, and terrain aspect; then, we described their temporal changes. The results showed that approximately 84.56% of the glacial lakes (84.1% of the total lake area) were located at elevations between 4000 m and 5500 m, and glacial lakes with areas ranging from 0.01–0.5 km2 accounted for approximately 95.21% of the number and 63.01% of the total area of glacial lakes. The number (38.64%) and area (58.83%) of south-facing glacial lakes were largest in HKH-TMHA and expanded significantly over time. There were 5835 (664.84 ± 89.72 km2) glacial lakes in 1990; from 1990 to 2020, the number of glacial lakes in the HKH-TMHA region increased by 5974 (408.93 km2) in total; and the annual average increase in the area of glacial lakes reached 13.63 km2 (11.15%). In 2020, the total number of glacial lake reached to 9673 (899.66 ± 120.63 km2). In addition, most glacial lakes were located in the Eastern Himalayan, China, and the Indus Basin. Based on the precipitation and temperature analyses performed in our study area, we found inconsistent climate characteristics and changes in the three mountain ranges. In general, the daily precipitation (temperature) increased by 1.0766 mm (1.0311 °C), 0.8544 mm (0.8346 °C), and 0.8245 mm (−0.1042 °C) on the yearly, summer, and winter scales, respectively. Glacial melting and climate change are common contributors to glacial lake expansion. The investigation of glacial lakes in this region can provide basic supporting data for research on glacial lake-related disasters, land cover, and climate change in the high-mountain Asia region.

Identification of Hazardous Glacial Lakes in the Yarlung Zangbo River Basin Based on Lakes Changes Determined Using Google Earth Engine

Glaciers have melted rapidly in the Yarlung Zangbo River Basin due to recent climate change, which has accelerated the expansion of glacial lakes. We performed a systematic survey of glacial lakes in the Yarlung Zangbo River Basin using the Google Earth Engine platform. This allowed us to map the distribution and monitor the evolution of glacial lakes over seven time periods from 1990 to 2020, using more than 140 Landsat Thematic Mapper and Operational Land Imager images at a 30-m resolution. The results show that there were 2088 glacial lakes in 2020, with a total area of 245.87 km2, mainly distributed at elevations of 3,800–5,800 m above sea level. From 1990 to 2020, the Yarlung Zangbo River Basin glacial lakes expanded by approximately 1.81 km2·a−1. A total of 153 glacial lakes in the Yarlung Zangbo River Basin were assessed. The assessment shows that 153 glacial lakes were divided into very high, high, medium, low, and very low level. The number of glacial lakes in each level is 23, 22, 32, 32, and 44, respectively. The very high and high level glacial lakes were mainly found in the Yi’ong Zangbo River Basin, Parlung Zangbo River Basin, the western of the Yarlung Zangbo River Basin and Nianchu River Basin. These glacial lakes deserve further attention and monitoring.

Monitoring glacial lake outburst flood susceptibility using Sentinel-1 SAR data, Google Earth Engine, and persistent scatterer interferometry

Continuous monitoring of glacial lakes, their parent glaciers and their surroundings is crucial because possible outbursts of these lakes pose a serious hazard to downstream areas. Ongoing climate change increases the risk of this hazard globally due to recession of glaciers leading to formation and expansion of glacial lakes, and permafrost degradation which impacts the stability of glaciers, slopes and moraines. Here, we demonstrate the capability of our approach for monitoring lake outburst susceptibility using time-series of Sentinel-1 Synthetic Aperture Radar (S-1 SAR) data. We selected Lunana in the Bhutanese Himalayas as an example region as it is highly susceptible to glacial lake outburst floods and suitable baseline data were available. We used Google Earth Engine (GEE) to calculate average radar backscatter intensity (ARBI) of glaciers, lakes, basins, and moraines. To determine the periodicity of the highest and the lowest radar backscatter intensity, we denoised the ARBI data using a Fast Fourier Transform and autocorrelated using a Pearson correlation function. Additionally, we determined glacier melt area, basin melt area, lake area, open water area, and lake ice area using radar backscatter intensity data. The Persistent Scatterer Interferometry (PSI) technique was used to investigate the stability of moraines and slopes around glacial lakes. The PSI results were qualitatively validated by comparison with high-resolution digital elevation model differencing results. Our approach showed that glaciers and basins in the region underwent seasonal and periodic changes in their radar backscatter intensity related to changes in ice and snow melt. Lakes also showed seasonal changes in their radar backscatter intensity related to the variation of lake ice and open water area, but the radar backscatter intensity change was not periodic. We could also infer lake area change using a time-series radar backscatter intensity data such as the rapid expansion of Bechung Tsho. The PSI analysis showed that all the terminal moraines were stable except Drukchung Tsho. Its terminal moraine showed subsidence at the rate of –5.18 mm/yr. Sidewalls of lakes were also stable with the exception of Lugge Tsho at site 4. Due to the free availability of S-1 SAR data, the efficiency of processing a large amount of imagery within GEE, and the PSI technique, we were able to understand the outburst susceptibility of glacial lakes in the region at great detail. The regular acquisition of S-1 SAR data enables continuous monitoring of glacial lakes. A similar approach and concept can be transferred to any geographic region on earth that shares similar challenges in glacial lake monitoring.

Glacial Lake Area Changes in High Mountain Asia during 1990-2020 Using Satellite Remote Sensing.

Changes in a large-scale glacial lake area directly reflect the regional glacier status and climate changes. However, long time series of glacial lake dataset and comprehensive investigation of the spatiotemporal changes in the glacial lake area in the whole High Mountain Asia (HMA) region remained elusive. Satellite remote sensing provides an indispensable way for dynamic monitoring of glacial lakes over large regions. But glacial lakes are quite small and discretely distributed, and the extraction of glacial lakes is usually influenced by clouds, snow/ice cover, and terrain shadows; thus, there is a lack of an automatic method to continuously monitor the dynamic changes of glacial lakes in a large scale. In this paper, we developed a per-pixel composited method named the "multitemporal mean NDWI composite" to automatically extract the glacial lake area in HMA from 1990 to 2020 using time-series Landsat data. There were 19,294 glacial lakes covering a total area of 1471.85 ± 366.42 km2 in 1990, and 22,646 glacial lakes with an area of 1729.08 ± 461.31 km2 in 2020. It is noted that the glacial lake area in the whole HMA region expanded by 0.58 ± 0.21%/a over the past three decades, with high spatiotemporal heterogeneity. The glacial lake area increased at a consistent speed over time. The fastest expansion was in East Kun Lun at an average rate of 2.01 ± 0.54%/a, while in the Pamir and Hengduan Shan, they show slow increases with rates of 0.33 ± 0.08%/a and 0.39 ± 0.01%/a, respectively, during 1990-2020. The greatest increase in lake area occurred at 5000-5200 m a.s.l., which increased by about 45 km2 (~25%). We conclude that the temperature rise and glacier thinning are the leading factors of glacial lake expansion in HMA, and precipitation is the main source of lake water increase in West Kun Lun. Using the proposed method, a large amount of Landsat images from successive years of melting seasons can be fully utilized to obtain a pixel-level composited cloud-free and solid snow/ice-free glacial lake map. The uncertainties from supraglacial ponds and glacial meltwater were also estimated to improve the reliability and comparability of glacial lake area changes among different regions. This study provides important technical and data support for regional climate changes, glacier hydrology, and disaster analysis.

Dynamics of Lower-Barun Glacier and Glacial Lake and its GLOF Susceptibility Using Geospatial Analysis and Modelling

Shrinkage of some of the glaciers has direct impacts on the formation and expansion of glacial lakes. Sudden glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs) are a major threat to lives and livelihoods downstream as they can cause catastrophic damage. In this study, we present the dynamics of the Lower-Barun glacier and glacial lakes and their GLOF susceptibility. We used multi temporal Landsat and Sentinel satellite imagery and extracted the lake outlines using the Normalized Difference Water Index (NDWI) with manual post-correction while the glacier outline was digitized manually. Multi-criteria decision-based method was used to assess the GLOF susceptibility. For the estimation of peak discharge and failure time, an empirical model developed by Froelich (1995) was used. The surface area of the Lower-Barun glacial lake was increased by 86% in the last 40 yrs (from 1979 to 2018), with a mean increase of 0.0432 km2/yr. The shrinkage in the glacier area is around 0.49 km2/yr and has shrunk by 8% in the last four decades. The retreat of the Lower-Barun glacier was 0.20% per year in the last four decades. The susceptibility index was 0.94, which suggests that the lake is very highly susceptible to the GLOF. The peak discharge of 5768 m3/s is produced when the breach depth is 20 m and the entire water volume is released. Likewise, in the case of 15 m breach depth, the peak discharge of 4038 m3/s is formed. Breach depth scenario of 10 m, peak discharge of 2442 m3/s is produced and in case of breach depth of 5 m produces the peak discharge of 1034 m3/s. If GLOF occurs, it can exert disastrous impacts on the livelihood and infrastructure in the downstream. So, it is necessary to examine such lakes regularly and mitigation measures to lower the GLOF susceptibility should be emphasized.

Glacial Lake Area Change and Potential Outburst Flood Hazard Assessment in the Bhutan Himalaya

Against the background of climate change-induced glacier melting, numerous glacial lakes are formed across high mountain areas worldwide. Existing glacial lake inventories, chiefly created using Landsat satellite imagery, mainly relate to 1990 onwards and relatively long (decadal) temporal scales. Moreover, there is a lack of robust information on the expansion and the GLOF hazard status of glacial lakes in the Bhutan Himalaya. We mapped Bhutanese glacial lakes from the 1960s to 2020, and used these data to determine their distribution patterns, expansion behavior, and GLOF hazard status. 2,187 glacial lakes (corresponding to 130.19 ± 2.09 km2) were mapped from high spatial resolution (1.82–7.62 m), Corona KH-4 images from the 1960s. Using the Sentinel-2 (10 m) and Sentinel-1 (20 m × 22 m), we mapped 2,553 (151.81 ± 7.76 km2), 2,566 (152.64 ± 7.83 km2), 2,572 (153.94 ± 7.83 km2), 2,569 (153.97 ± 7.79 km2) and 2,574 (156.63 ± 7.95 km2) glacial lakes in 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019 and 2020, respectively. The glacier-fed lakes were mainly present in the Phochu (22.63%) and the Kurichu (20.66%) basins. A total of 157 glacier-fed lakes have changed into non-glacier-fed lakes over the 60 years of lake evolution. Glacier-connected lakes (which constitutes 42.25% of the total glacier-fed lake) area growth accounted for 75.4% of the total expansion, reaffirming the dominant role of glacier-melt water in expanding glacial lakes. Between 2016 and 2020, 19 (4.82 km2) new glacial lakes were formed with an average annual expansion rate of 0.96 km2 per year. We identified 31 lakes with a very-high and 34 with high GLOF hazard levels. These very-high to high GLOF hazard lakes were primarily located in the Phochu, Kurichu, Drangmechu, and Mochu basins. We concluded that the increasing glacier melt is the main driver of glacial lake expansion. Our results imply that extending glacial lakes studies back to the 1960s provides new insights on glacial lake evolution from glacier-fed lakes to non-glacier-fed lakes. Additionally, we reaffirmed the capacity of Sentinel-1 and Sentinel-2 data to determine annual glacial lake changes. The results from this study can be a valuable basis for future glacial lake monitoring and prioritizing limited resources for GLOF mitigation programs.

Spatiotemporal dynamics of glacial lakes (1990\u20132018) in the Kashmir Himalayas, India using Remote Sensing and GIS

This study is perhaps the first attempt to use satellite data (1990–2018) to analyze spatiotemporal changes in glacial lakes over the Kashmir Himalayas supplemented by field studies. Landsat images were used to delineate the spatial extent of glacial lakes at four-time points, i.e., 1990, 2000, 2010 and 2018. The total count of lakes as well as their spatial extent showed a discernible increase. The number increased from 253 in 1990 to 324 in 2018, with a growth rate of 21.4%. The area has increased from 18.84 ± 0.1 km2 in 1990 to 22.13 ± 0.12 km2 in 2018 with a growth rate of 14.7%. The newly formed glacial lakes, including supraglacial lakes, were greater in number than the lakes that disappeared over the study period. All glacial lakes are situated at elevations of 2700 m asl and 4500 m asl. More than 78% of lake expansion in the study region is largely due to the growth of existing glacial lakes. Through area change analysis, our findings reveal that certain lakes show rapid expansion needing immediate monitoring and observation. The analysis of the meteorological variables reveals that minimum and maximum temperatures in the Jhelum basin have shown an increasing trend. Tmax showed an increase of 1.25 °C, whereas Tmin increased to 0.7 °C from 1980 to 2020. On the other hand, precipitation has shown a decreasing trend, which can be attributed to one of the major causes of glacier recession and the expansion of glacial lakes in the Upper Jhelum basin. Consequently, this study could play a significant role in devising a comprehensive risk assessment plan for potential Glacial Lake Outburst Floods (GLOFs) and developing a mechanism for continuous monitoring and management of lakes in the study region.

Rapid glacier Shrinkage and Glacial Lake Expansion of a China-Nepal Transboundary Catchment in the Central Himalayas, between 1964 and 2020

Climate warming and concomitant glacier recession in the High Mountain Asia (HMA) have led to widespread development and expansion of glacial lakes, which reserved the freshwater resource, but also may increase risks of glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs) or debris floods. Using 46 moderate- and high-resolution satellite images, including declassified Keyhole and Landsat missions between 1964 and 2020, we provide a comprehensive area mapping of glaciers and glacial lakes in the Tama Koshi (Rongxer) basin, a highly glacierized China-Nepal transnational catchment in the central Himalayas with high potential risks of glacier-related hazards. Results show that the 329.2 ± 1.9 km2 total area of 271 glaciers in the region has decreased by 26.2 ± 3.2 km2 in the past 56 years. During 2000–2016, remarkable ice mass loss caused the mean glacier surface elevation to decrease with a rate of −0.63 m a−1, and the mean glacier surface velocity slowed by ~25% between 1999 and 2015. The total area of glacial lakes increased by 9.2 ± 0.4 km2 (~180%) from 5.1 ± 0.1 km2 in 1964 to 14.4 ± 0.3 km2 in 2020, while ice-contacted proglacial lakes have a much higher expansion rate (~204%). Large-scale glacial lakes are developed preferentially and experienced rapid expansion on the east side of the basin, suggesting that in addition to climate warming, the glacial geomorphological characters (aspect and slope) are also key controlling factors of the lake growing process. We hypothesize that lake expansion will continue in some cases until critical local topography (i.e., steepening icefall) is reached, but the lake number may not necessarily increase. Further monitoring should be focused on eight rapidly expanding proglacial lakes due to their high potential risks of failure and relatively high lake volumes.

Monitoring the Spatiotemporal Difference in Glacier Elevation on Bogda Mountain from 2000 to 2017.

The difference in glacier surface elevation is a sensitive indicator of climate change and is also important for disaster warning and water supply. In this paper, 25 glaciers on Bogda Mountain, in the eastern Tianshan Mountains, are selected as the study object as they are typical of glaciers in arid or semi-arid areas with importance for water supply. The Repeat Orbit Interferometry (ROI) method is used to survey the surface elevation of these glaciers using Sentinel-1A Radar data from 2017. Using data from the Shuttle Radar Topography Mission (SRTM) and a Digital Elevation Model (DEM), the difference in the glacier surface elevation between 2000 and 2017 is obtained. A scheme to evaluate the accuracy of estimated variations in glacier surface elevation is proposed in this article. By considering the surfaces of lakes in the study region as ideal horizontal planes, the average standard deviation (SD) value of the lake elevation is taken as the error caused by the radar sensor and observing conditions. The SD of the lake elevation is used as an index to evaluate the error in the estimated variation of the glacier surface elevation, and the obtained SD values indicate that the result obtained using the ROI method is reliable. Additionally, the glacier surface elevation variation pattern and a Logarithmic Fitting Model (LFM) are used to reduce the error in high-altitude glacial accumulation areas to improve the estimation of the difference in the glacier surface elevation obtained using ROI. The average SD of the elevation of the 12 lakes is ±2.87 m, which shows that the obtained glacier surface elevations are reliable. This article concludes that, between 2000 and 2017, the surface elevation of glaciers on Bogda Mountain decreased by an average of 11.6 ± 1.3 m, corresponding to an average decrease rate of 0.68 m/a, and glaciers volume decreased by an average of 0.504 km3. Meanwhile, the surface elevations of the lakes increased by an average of 8.16 m. The decrease of glacier surface elevation leads to the expansion of glacial lakes. From the north slope clockwise to the south slope, the glacier elevation variation showed a decreasing trend, and the elevation variation gradually increased from the south slope to the north slope. With the increase of glacier altitude, the variation of glacier surface elevation gradually changed from negative to positive. The findings of this article suggest that the rate of glacier retreat on Bogda Mountain increased from 2000 to 2017.

A Review of Glacial Lake Expansion and Associated Glacial Lake Outburst Floods in the Himalayan Region

Climate change is strongly affecting the Himalayas. Geologically young and fragile, the Himalayas are sensitive to even minor changes in the climate. Regional warming in Himalayas has been observed between 0.15 and 0.60 °C per decade, which is higher than the mean global warming rate of 0.74 °C per 100 years. Consequent to this warming trend, the glaciological changes in Himalayas are obvious, which has resulted in the formation, expansion and disappearance of various types of glacial lakes. The dangerous lakes among these pose threat to downstream community and infrastructure. In this study, an attempt has been made to critically analyze the progress in Glacier Lake Outburst Floods (GLOF) research and understand its dynamism from multiple approaches through a meta-analysis of peer-reviewed scholarly literature for a period of 2001–2020. The study has found that the glacial lakes in the study region are increasing in number and expanding rapidly owing to the climate change and anthropogenic causes as the Glacier Lake Outburst Floods (GLOFs) are becoming common. The expansion rates of pro-glacial lakes connected to glaciers and moraine-dammed lakes are faster than other type of lakes. Findings from the studies on area change analysis in the region reveal that a number of expanding glacial lakes can emerge as potential sites for future GLOFs, hence need immediate monitoring and observation. Geospatial tools and techniques coupled with field investigations have been found as a potent tool for mapping the evolution and propagation of GLOF hazards resulting from accelerated shrinking and thinning of glaciers and continued lake expansion. Further, the satellite-based remote sensing and modeling has been found as an excellent tool for GLOF management as well as reconstruction of previous GLOF events and prediction of future outburst potential. The idea of this study is linked to the increased incidence of GLOF events in the Himalayan region. This study will help in better understanding of glacial lake expansion and provide scope for future research in devising risk management action plans of potential GLOFs by selecting expanding glacial lakes as case studies.

Increasing risk of glacial lake outburst floods from future Third Pole deglaciation

Warming on Earth’s Third Pole is leading to rapid loss of ice and the formation and expansion of glacial lakes, posing a severe threat to downstream communities. Here we provide a holistic assessment of past evolution, present state and modelled future change of glacial lakes and related glacial lake outburst flood (GLOF) risk across the Third Pole. We show that the highest GLOF risk is at present centred in the eastern Himalaya, where the current risk level is at least twice that in adjacent regions. In the future, GLOF risk will potentially almost triple as a consequence of further lake development, and additional hotspots will emerge to the west, including within transboundary regions. With apparent increases in GLOF risk already anticipated by the mid-twenty-first century in some regions, the results highlight the urgent need for forward-looking, collaborative, long-term approaches to mitigate future impacts and enhance sustainable development across the Third Pole. Global warming-driven deglaciation in high-mountain Asia raises the likelihood of natural dam failure and associated glacial lake outburst flood risk. This is estimated for lake development under present-day and future warming scenarios, highlighting emerging hotspots and transboundary impacts.