German Winter Wheat Research Articles

Effects of systematic data reduction on trend estimation from German registration trials

Key messageVCU trials can provide unbiased estimates of post-breeding trends given that all data is used. Dropping data of genotypes tested for up to two years may result in biased post-breeding trend estimates.Increasing yield trends are seen on-farm in Germany. The increase is based on genetic trend in registered genotypes and changes in agronomic practices and climate. To estimate both genetic and non-genetic trends, historical wheat data from variety trials evaluating a varieties’ value for cultivation und use (VCU) were analyzed. VCU datasets include information on varieties as well as on genotypes that were submitted by breeders and tested in trials but could not make it to registration. Therefore, the population of registered varieties (post-registration population) is a subset of the population of genotypes tested in VCU trials (post-breeding population). To assess post-registration genetic trend, historical VCU trial datasets are often reduced, e.g. to registered varieties only. This kind of drop-out mechanism is statistically informative which affects variance component estimates and which can affect trend estimates. To investigate the effect of this informative drop-out on trend estimates, a simulation study was conducted mimicking the structure of German winter wheat VCU trials. Zero post-breeding trends were simulated. Results showed unbiased estimates of post-breeding trends when using all data. When restricting data to genotypes tested for at least three years, a positive genetic trend of 0.11 dt ha−1 year−1 and a negative non-genetic trend (− 0.11 dt ha−1 year−1) were observed. Bias increased with increasing genotype-by-year variance and disappeared with random selection. We simulated single-trait selection, whereas decisions in VCU trials consider multiple traits, so selection intensity per trait is considerably lower. Hence, our results provide an upper bound for the bias expected in practice.

Carbon isotope discrimination as a key physiological trait to phenotype drought/heat resistance of future climate-resilient German winter wheat compared with relative leaf water content and canopy temperature.

Climate change is expected to influence crop growth through frequent drought and heat extremes, and thus, drought and heat tolerance are of increasing importance as major breeding goals for cereal crops in Central Europe. Plant physiological water status traits are suitable for phenotyping plant drought/heat tolerance. The objective of this study was to determine whether relative leaf water content (RLWC), plant canopy temperature (CT), and carbon isotope discrimination (CID) are suitable for phenotyping the drought/heat resistance of German winter wheat for future climate resilience. Therefore, a comprehensive field evaluation was conducted under drier and warmer conditions in Moldova using a space-for-time approach for twenty winter wheat varieties from Germany and compared to twenty regionally adapted varieties from Eastern Europe. Among the physiological traits RLWC, CT, and CID, the heritability of RLWC showed the lowest values regardless of year or variety origin, and there was no significant correlation between RLWC and grain yield regardless of the year, suggesting that RLWC did not seem to be a useful trait for distinguishing origins or varieties under continental field conditions. Although the heritability of CT demonstrated high values, the results showed surprisingly low and nonsignificant correlations between CT and grain yield; this may have been due to a confounding effect of increased soil temperature in the investigated dark Chernozem soil. In contrast, the heritability of CID in leaves and grain was high, and there were significant correlations between grain yield and CID, suggesting that CID is a reliable indirect physiological trait for phenotyping drought/heat resistance for future climate resilience in German wheat.

Temperature effects on crop yields in heat index insurance

Heat can cause substantial yield losses in crop production and climate change is increasing the risk of this kind of damage. Weather index insurance can help to reduce the financial losses resulting from heat exposure. This paper introduces crop-specific payout functions based on restricted cubic splines in heat index insurance. The use of restricted cubic splines is a cutting-edge method to reflect empirically estimated temperature effects on crop yields and to estimate temperature-related yield losses. The integration of these temperature effects in payout functions facilitates insurance design and allows hourly temperatures to be used as the underlying index. An empirical analysis is used to assess heat stress effects for a panel of East German winter wheat and winter rapeseed producers, to calibrate insurance contracts accordingly and simulate the resulting risk reducing capacities. We find that the insurance scheme introduced here leads to statistically and economically significant out-of-sample risk reducing capacities for farmers, i.e. risk premiums are reduced by up to approximately 20% at the median, in comparison to the uninsured status and at the actuarially fair premium. Moreover, we highlight that policy-makers can support the cost-efficient provision of market-based weather index insurance by fostering data collection and data provision.

Drought Stress during Anthesis Alters Grain Protein Composition and Improves Bread Quality in Field-Grown Iranian and German Wheat Genotypes

Drought stress is playing an increasingly important role in crop production due to climate change. To investigate the effects of drought stress on protein quantity and quality of wheat, two Iranian (Alvand, Mihan) and four German (Impression, Discus, Rumor, Hybery) winter wheat genotypes, representing different quality classes and grain protein levels, were grown under field conditions in Eqlid (Iran) during the 2018–2019 growing season. Drought stress was initiated by interrupting field irrigation during the anthesis phase at two different stress levels. Drought stress at anthesis did not significantly change total grain protein concentration in any of the wheat genotypes. Similarly, concentrations of grain storage protein sub-fractions of albumin/globulin, gliadin and glutenin were unaltered in five of the six genotypes. However, analysis of protein sub-fractions by SDS polyacrylamide gel electrophoresis revealed a consistent significant increase in ω-gliadins with increasing drought stress. Higher levels of HMW glutenins and a reduction in LMW-C glutenins were observed exclusively under severe drought stress in German genotypes. The drought-induced compositional change correlated positively with the specific bread volume, and was mainly associated with an increase in ω-gliadins and with a slight increase in HMW glutenins. Despite the generally lower HMW glutenin concentrations of the Iranian genotypes and no effect of drought on the concentration of HMW sub-fraction, there was still high specific bread volume under drought. It is suggested that for the development of new wheat cultivars adapted to these challenging climatic conditions, the protein composition should be considered in addition to the yield and grain protein concentration.

Breeding progress of disease resistance and impact of disease severity under natural infections in winter wheat variety trials

Key messageBreeding progress of resistance to fungal wheat diseases and impact of disease severity on yield reduction in long-term variety trials under natural infection were estimated by mixed linear regression models.This study aimed at quantifying breeding progress achieved in resistance breeding towards varieties with higher yield and lower susceptibility for 6 major diseases, as well as estimating decreasing yields and increasing disease susceptibility of varieties due to ageing effects during the period 1983–2019. A further aim was the prediction of disease-related yield reductions during 2005–2019 by mixed linear regression models using disease severity scores as covariates. For yield and all diseases, overall progress of the fully treated intensity (I2) was considerably higher than for the intensity without fungicides and growth regulators (I1). The disease severity level was considerably reduced during the study period for mildew (MLD), tan spot (DTR) and Septoria nodorum blotch (ear) (SNB) and to a lesser extent for brown (leaf) rust (BNR) and Septoria tritici blotch (STB), however, not for yellow/stripe rust (YLR). Ageing effects increased susceptibility of varieties strongly for BNR and MLD, but were comparatively weak for SNB and DTR. Considerable yield reductions under high disease severity were predicted for STB (−6.6%), BNR (−6.5%) and yellow rust (YLR, −5.8%), but lower reductions for the other diseases. The reduction for resistant vs. highly susceptible varieties under high severity conditions was about halved for BNR and YLR, providing evidence of resistance breeding progress. The empirical evidence on the functional relations between disease severity, variety susceptibility and yield reductions based on a large-scale multiple-disease field trial data set in German winter wheat is an important contribution to the ongoing discussion on fungicide use and its environmental impact.

The Economic Impact of Exchanging Breeding Material: Assessing Winter Wheat Production in Germany.

Climate change impacts imply that the stabilization and improvement of agricultural production systems using technological innovations has become vital. Improvements in plant breeding are integral to such innovations. In the context of German crop breeding programs, the economic impact of exchanging genetic material has yet to be determined. To this end, we analyze in this impact assessment the economic effects on German winter wheat production that are attributable to exchanging parental material amongst breeders in the breeding process. This exchange is supported by the breeders’ exemption, which is an integral part of the German plant variety protection legislation. It ensures that breeders can freely use licensed varieties created by other breeders for their own breeding activities and aims to speed up the development of improved varieties. For our analysis, we created a unique data set that combines variety-specific grain yield, adoption, and pedigree information of 133 winter wheat varieties. We determined the parental pedigree of each variety to see if a variety was created by interbreeding varieties that are internal or external to its specific breeder. Our study is the first that analyzes the economic impact of exchanging genetic material in German breeding programs. We found that more than 90 % of the tested varieties were bred with exchanged parental material, whereby the majority had two external parents. Also, these varieties were planted on an 8.5 times larger area than the varieties that were bred with two internal parents. Due to lower adoption, these only contributed 11 % to the overall winter wheat production in Germany, even though they yielded more. We used an economic surplus model to measure the benefits of exchanging parental breeding material on German winter wheat production. This resulted in an overall estimated economic surplus of 19.2 to 22.0 billion EUR from production year 1972 to 2018. This implies tremendous returns to using the breeder’s exemption, which, from an economic perspective, is almost cost-free for the breeder. We conclude that the exchange of breeding material contributes to improving Germany’s agricultural production and fosters the development of climate-resilient production systems and global food security.

Breeding progress for pathogen resistance is a second major driver for yield increase in German winter wheat at contrasting N levels

Breeding has substantially increased the genetic yield potential, but fungal pathogens are still major constraints for wheat production. Therefore, breeding success for resistance and its impact on yield were analyzed on a large panel of winter wheat cultivars, representing breeding progress in Germany during the last decades, in large scale field trials under different fungicide and nitrogen treatments. Results revealed a highly significant effect of genotype (G) and year (Y) on resistances and G × Y interactions were significant for all pathogens tested, i.e. leaf rust, strip rust, powdery mildew and Fusarium head blight. N-fertilization significantly increased the susceptibility to biotrophic and hemibiotrophic pathogens. Resistance was significantly improved over time but at different rates for the pathogens. Although the average progress of resistance against each pathogen was higher at the elevated N level in absolute terms, it was very similar at both N levels on a relative basis. Grain yield was increased significantly over time under all treatments but was considerably higher without fungicides particularly at high N-input. Our results strongly indicate that wheat breeding resulted in a substantial increase of grain yield along with a constant improvement of resistance to fungal pathogens, thereby contributing to an environment-friendly and sustainable wheat production.

Wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) Breeding from 1891 to 2010 Contributed to Increasing Yield and Glutenin Contents but Decreasing Protein and Gliadin Contents.

Epidemiologic studies suggest an increasing prevalence of celiac disease and non-celiac gluten/wheat sensitivity. With wheat proteins being the main triggers, changes in wheat protein composition are discussed as a potential cause. The goals of breeding toward increased yield and resistance might have inadvertently contributed to a higher immunostimulatory potential of modern wheat cultivars compared to old wheat cultivars. Therefore, agronomic characteristics, protein content, and gluten composition of 60 German winter wheat cultivars first registered between 1891 and 2010 grown in 3 years were analyzed. While plant height and spike density decreased over time, yield and harvest index increased. The protein and gliadin contents showed a decreasing trend, whereas glutenin contents increased, but there were no changes in albumin/globulin and gluten contents. Overall, the harvest year had a more significant effect on protein composition than the cultivar. At the protein level, we found no evidence to support an increased immunostimulatory potential of modern winter wheat.

Decoupling of impact factors reveals the response of German winter wheat yields to climatic changes

Yield development of agricultural crops over time is not merely the result of genetic and agronomic factors, but also the outcome of a complex interaction between climatic and site-specific soil conditions. However, the influence of past climatic changes on yield trends remains unclear, particularly under consideration of different soil conditions. In this study, we determine the effects of single agrometeorological factors on the evolution of German winter wheat yields between 1958 and 2015 from 298 published nitrogen (N)-fertilization experiments. For this purpose, we separate climatic from genetic and agronomic yield effects using linear mixed effect models and estimate the climatic influence based on a coefficient of determination for these models. We found earlier occurrence of wheat growth stages, and shortened development phases except for the phase of stem elongation. Agrometeorological factors are defined as climate covariates related to the growth of winter wheat. Our results indicate a general and strong effect of agroclimatic changes on yield development, in particular due to increasing mean temperatures and heat stress events during the grain-filling period. Except for heat stress days with more than 31°C, yields at sites with higher yield potential were less prone to adverse weather effects than at sites with lower yield potential. Our data furthermore reveal that a potential yield levelling, as found for many West-European countries, predominantly occurred at sites with relatively low yield potential and about one decade earlier (mid-1980s) compared to averaged yield data for the whole of Germany. Interestingly, effects related to high precipitation events were less relevant than temperature-related effects and became relevant particularly during the vegetative growth phase. Overall, this study emphasizes the sensitivity of yield productivity to past climatic conditions, under consideration of regional differences, and underlines the necessity of finding adaptation strategies for food production under ongoing and expected climate change.

Dynamic QTL for adult plant resistance to powdery mildew in common wheat (Triticum aestivum L.).

Agriculture will benefit from a rigorous characterization of genes for adult plant resistance (APR) since this gene class was recognized to provide more durable protection from plant diseases. The present study reports the identification of APR loci to powdery mildew in German winter wheat cultivars Cortez and Atlantis. Cortez was previously shown to carry all-stage resistance gene Pm3e. To avoid interference of Pm3e in APR studies, line 6037 that lacked Pm3e but showed field resistance from doubled-haploid (DH) population Atlantis/Cortez was used in two backcrosses to Atlantis for the establishment of DH population 6037/Atlantis//Atlantis. APR was assessed in the greenhouse 10, 15, and 20days after inoculation (dai) from the 4-leaf stage onwards and combined with single-nucleotide polymorphism data in a genome-wide association study (GWAS) and a linkage map-based quantitative trait loci (QTL) analysis. In GWAS, two QTL were detected: one on chromosome 1BL 10dai, the other on chromosome 2BL 20dai. In conventional QTL analysis, both QTL were detected with all three disease ratings: the QTL on chromosome 1BL explained a maximum of 35.2% of the phenotypic variation 10dai, whereas the QTL on chromosome 2BL explained a maximum of 43.5% of the phenotypic variation 20dai. Compared with GWAS, linkage map-based QTL analysis allowed following the dynamics of QTL action. The two large-effect QTL for APR to powdery mildew with dynamic gene action can be useful for the enhancement of wheat germplasm.

Genetic architecture of wheat stripe rust resistance revealed by combining QTL mapping using SNP-based genetic maps and bulked segregant analysis.

A major stripe rust resistance QTL was mapped to a 0.4 centimorgan (cM) genetic region on the long arm of chromosome 7B, using combined genome-wide linkage mapping and bulk segregant analysis. The German winter wheat cv. Centrum has displayed high levels of adult plant stripe rust resistance (APR) in field environments for many years. Here, we used the combined genome-wide linkage mapping and pool-extreme genotyping to characterize the APR resistance. One hundred and fifty-one F2:7 recombinant inbred lines derived from a cross between susceptible landrace Mingxian 169 and Centrum were evaluated for stripe rust resistance in multiple environments and genotyped by the wheat 35K single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) array. Three stable quantitative trait loci (QTL) were identified using QTL analysis across five field environments. To saturate the major QTL, the wheat 660K SNP array was also used to genotype bulked extremes. A major QTL named QYrcen.nwafu-7BL from Centrum was mapped in a 0.4cM genetic interval flanking by AX-94556751 and AX-110366788 across a 2Mb physical genomic region, explaining 19.39-42.81% of the total phenotypic variation. It is likely a previously uncharacterized QTL based on pedigree analysis, reaction response, genotyping data and map comparison. The SNP markers closely linked with QYrcen.nwafu-7BL were converted to KASP markers and validated in a subset of 120 wheat lines. A 211 F2 breeding population from a cross of an elite cultivar Xinong 979 with Centrum were developed for marker-based selection. Three selected lines with desirable agronomic traits and the positive alleles of both KASP markers showed acceptable resistance which should be used as resistance donors in wheat breeding programs. The other QTL QYrcen.nwafu-1AL and QYrcen.nwafu-4AL with additive effects could enhance the level of resistance conferred by QYrcen.nwafu-7BL.

QTL analysis of falling number and seed longevity in wheat (Triticum aestivum L.).

Pre-harvest sprouting (PHS) and seed longevity (SL) are complex biological processes of major importance for agricultural production. In the present study, a recombinant inbred line (RIL) population derived from a cross between the German winter wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) cultivars History and Rubens was used to identify genetic factors controlling these two physiological seed traits. A falling number (FN) test was employed to evaluate PHS, while SL was measured using a germination test (and the speed of germination) after controlled deterioration. FN of the population was assessed in four environments; SL traits were measured in one environment. Four major quantitative trait loci (QTL) for FN were detected on chromosomes 4D, 5A, 5D, and 7B, whereas for SL traits, a major QTL was found on chromosome 1A. The FN QTL on chromosome 4D that coincided with the position of the dwarfing gene Rht-D1b only had effects in environments that were free of PHS. The remaining three QTL for FN were mostly pronounced under conditions conducive to PHS. The QTL on the long arm of chromosome 7B corresponded to the major gene locus controlling late maturity α-amylase (LMA) in wheat. The severity of the LMA phenotype became truly apparent under sprouting conditions. The position on the long arm of chromosome 1A of the QTL for SL points to a new QTL for this important regenerative seed trait.

Yield formation of Central-European winter wheat cultivars on a large scale perspective

Abstract Improvement of grain yield potential for winter wheat ( Triticum aestivum ) may become harder to achieve in the future because an increase of harvest index has been largely exploited by breeders. Therefore, it is of high interest to detect how the components of the yield equation GY = Q × LUE × HI ( GY : grain yield, Q : radiation interception, LUE : light use efficiency, HI : harvest index) contribute to the explanation of yield differences of modern high yielding wheat varieties. To gain more insight in the variability of the parameters in the above equation and their contribution to grain yield, a field experiment was carried out in two seasons using a set of 9 recent German winter wheat cultivars (among them a hybrid cultivar and its parent lines). Beneath combine harvest, sequential harvests by hand were conducted (4 in the growing season 2013–2014, 5 in the growing season 2014–2015) to ascertain the above-ground biomass, the leaf area index and the harvest index (at the final harvest). Non-destructive measurements with a plant canopy analyzer to measure leaf area indices and mean tilt angles were conducted 4 times in 2014 and 9 times in 2015. Light absorption was calculated based on interpolated values of leaf area indices and mean tilt angles. Light use efficiency was calculated based on the linear relationship between above-ground biomasses at hand harvests and the related quantities of absorbed radiation. For all parameters of yield formation besides light use efficiency ( P = 0.073) statistically significant differences regarding the cultivars can be observed. Our results suggest that grain yield of modern German cultivars can be explained to a similar extent by differences in harvest indices (adj. r 2 : 0.77) and total biomass accumulation (adj. r 2 : 0.61). Variation in biomass accumulation partly can be explained by light use efficiency differences and to a lesser extent by differences in radiation interception. Most of the differences in biomass accumulation result, however, from differences in the accumulation of biomass from mid flowering to the final yield which for methodological reasons could not be further dissected to effects of light use efficiency and radiation interception. This information gap was described by the introduced parameter late performance. Various combinations of high and low performance, regarding the parameters of yield formation, exist in the analyzed set of cultivars.

Considering causal genes in the genetic dissection of kernel traits in common wheat.

Genetic factors controlling thousand-kernel weight (TKW) were characterized for their association with other seed traits, including kernel width, kernel length, ratio of kernel width to kernel length (KW/KL), kernel area, and spike number per m2 (SN). For this purpose, a genetic map was established utilizing a doubled haploid population derived from a cross between German winter wheat cultivars Pamier and Format. Association studies in a diversity panel of elite cultivars supplemented genetic analysis of kernel traits. In both populations, genomic signatures of 13 candidate genes for TKW and kernel size were analyzed. Major quantitative trait loci (QTL) for TKW were identified on chromosomes 1B, 2A, 2D, and 4D, and their locations coincided with major QTL for kernel size traits, supporting the common belief that TKW is a function of other kernel traits. The QTL on chromosome 2A was associated with TKW candidate gene TaCwi-A1 and the QTL on chromosome 4D was associated with dwarfing gene Rht-D1. A minor QTL for TKW on chromosome 6B coincided with TaGW2-6B. The QTL for kernel dimensions that did not affect TKW were detected on eight chromosomes. A major QTL for KW/KL located at the distal tip of chromosome arm 5AS is being reported for the first time. TaSus1-7A and TaSAP-A1, closely linked to each other on chromosome 7A, could be related to a minor QTL for KW/KL. Genetic analysis of SN confirmed its negative correlation with TKW in this cross. In the diversity panel, TaSus1-7A was associated with TKW. Compared to the Pamier/Format bi-parental population where TaCwi-A1a was associated with higher TKW, the same allele reduced grain yield in the diversity panel, suggesting opposite effects of TaCwi-A1 on these two traits.

Diagnostic value of molecular markers for Lr genes and characterization of leaf rust resistance of German winter wheat cultivars with regard to the stability of vertical resistance

Breeding for resistance is an efficient strategy to manage wheat leaf rust caused by Puccinia triticina f. sp. tritici. However, a prerequisite for the directed use of Lr genes in breeding and the detection of new races virulent to these Lr genes is a detailed knowledge on Lr genes present in wheat cultivars. Therefore, respective molecular markers for 18 Lr genes were tested for specificity and used to determine Lr genes in 115 wheat cultivars. Results obtained were compared to available pedigree data. Using respective molecular markers, genes Lr1, Lr10, Lr26, Lr34 and Lr37 were detected, but data were not always in accordance with pedigree data. However, leaf rust scoring data of field trials confirmed the reliability of DNA markers. These reliable marker data facilitated the analyses of the development of virulent leaf rust races from 2002 to 2009 based on released cultivars. A sudden change from low infection rates to susceptibility was observed for Lr1, Lr3, Lr10, Lr13, Lr14, Lr16, Lr26 and Lr37 since 2006. Cultivars carrying several leaf rust resistance genes showed no significant shift to susceptibility except one cultivar which revealed an increasing infection rate at a low level. In summary, it turned out that pedigree data are often not reliable and a detection of Lr genes by diagnostic markers is fundamental to combine Lr genes in cultivars for a durable resistance against leaf rust, and to conduct reliable surveys based on released cultivars, instead of ‘Thatcher’ NILs.

The genetic characterisation of stripe rust resistance in the German wheat cultivar Alcedo.

Stripe rust resistance in the German winter wheat cv. Alcedo has been described as durable, the resistance having remained effective when grown extensively in Germany and Eastern Europe between 1975 and 1989. Genetic characterisation of field resistance in a cross between Alcedo and the stripe rust susceptible UK winter wheat cv. Brigadier identified two major QTL in Alcedo located on the long arms of chromosomes 2D (QPst.jic-2D) and 4B (QPst.jic-4B). Stripe rust resistance was evaluated by measuring the extent of fungal growth, percentage infection (Pi) and the necrotic/chlorotic response of the plant to infection, infection type (IT). Both QPst.jic-2D and QPst.jic-4B contributed significantly to the reduction in stripe rust infection (Pi), with QPst.jic-2D explaining up to 36.20% and QPst.jic-4B 28.90% of the phenotypic variation measured for Pi. Both QTL were identified by the IT phenotypic scores, with QPst.jic-2D in particular being associated with a strong necrotic phenotype (low IT), QPst.jic-2D explaining up to 53.10% of IT phenotypic variation and QPst.jic-4B 22.30%. In addition, two small effect QTL for field stripe rust resistance were identified in Brigadier, QPst.jic-1B on the long arm of chromosome 1B and QPst.jic-5A on the short arm of chromosome 5A. The influence of QPst.jic-1B was primarily seen with the Pi phenotype, contributing up to 13.10% of the explained phenotypic variation. QPst.jic-5A was only detected using an approximate multiple-QTL model and selecting markers linked to the major effect QTL, QPst.jic-2D and QPst.jic-4B as co-factors. Seedling stripe rust resistance was also mapped in the cross, which confirmed the location of Yr17 from Brigadier to the short arm of chromosome 2A. A seedling expressed QTL was also located in Alcedo that mapped to the same location as the field stripe rust resistance QPst.jic-2D.

Genetic analysis of powdery mildew resistance in German winter wheat cultivar Cortez

With 2 figures and 1 table AbstractFungal diseases of wheat, including powdery mildew (Pm), have caused significant crop, yield and quality losses throughout the world and continue to impact on production. Knowledge of the genetic basis of powdery mildew resistance of wheat cultivars will greatly support future efforts developing and cultivating resistant cultivars. Genetic studies were conducted on the German winter wheat cultivar ‘Cortez’ to identify genes involved in powdery mildew resistance at seedling and adult plant growth stages using doubled haploid (DH) population Atlantis/Cortez. Analysis of association between molecular markers and powdery mildew severity in selected genotypes indicated the involvement of two genes on chromosomes 1A and 7B in seedling resistance. The same gene on chromosome 1A was also found to be effective at adult plant stage. Quantitative trait loci analysis corroborated that the gene on chromosome 1A significantly contributed to field resistance in all five test environments and explained between 22.9% and 51.4% of the total phenotypic variation. The gene on chromosome 7B was identified as Pm5, whereas the gene on chromosome 1A potentially conditioning resistance was identified as Pm3e.

Diagnostic value of molecular markers linked to the eyespot resistance gene Pch1 in wheat

Eyespot is a major disease of common wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) in temperate climates and causes yield losses of up to 40%. The causal agents of eyespot are Oculimacula acuformis (syn. Tapesia acuformis; anamorph: Helgardia acuformis syn. Pseudocercosporella herpotrichoides var. acuformis) and O. yallundae (syn. T. yallundae; anamorph: H. yallundae syn. P. h. var. herpotrichoides). Pch1 located on chromosome 7DL is the most important and most effective resistance gene, but its use in practical breeding is limited because of difficulties in phenotyping and the fact that markers like XustSSR2001-7DL are often population-specific in German wheat cultivars. Therefore, based on results obtained for endopeptidase Ep-D1a, which is very closely linked to Pch1, molecular markers located in the terminal region of chromosome 7DL were analysed in three DH (double haploid) populations. In a next step these molecular markers were validated on a set of German winter wheat cultivars to obtain information on their usefulness for marker assisted selection (MAS). Based on the analysis of 127 DH-lines, linkage to Pch1 (Ep-D1) was obtained for Xorw1, Xorw5, Xorw6, Xcfd175, Xbarc76, Xwmc14, and Xcfa2040. Analyses of 104 German winter wheat cultivars showed that Xorw1, Xorw6 and the SSR Xcfd175 of these markers are well suited for MAS in German wheat breeding.

Occurrence of three dwarfing Rht genes in German winter wheat varieties

Ninety percent of wheat varieties grown worldwide have a semi-dwarf phenotype controlled by three major genes Rht-B1 (formerly Rht1), Rht-D1 (formerly Rht2) and Rht8. The objective of this study was to determine their frequency in modern wheat varieties grown in Germany. Ninety-five winter wheat varieties that were registered in Germany in 2004 were screened with PCR-based markers for Rht-B1 and Rht-D1 and with the microsatellite WMS261 for Rht8. The Rht8 allele for plant height reduction was not found in any of the varieties, which confirms previous studies. Rht-B1b or Rht-D1b alleles were present in 44% of the screened varieties, but only 6% contained Rht-B1b, which predominates in northern Europe. Rht-D1b was found in 38% of the varieties, which were planted on 34% of the total area of wheat in Germany. Wheat varieties with Rht-D1b were shorter and higher yielding than wheat varieties without this allele, but more susceptible to Fusarium head blight, which could limit their productivity.

A Bayesian approach to German agricultural yield expectations

Agricultural yields depend on an encompassing set of technical and environmental factors. The development of such factors often is not fully observable, and their interactions and impacts on yields have not been completely understood. This paper proposes a Bayesian method for forming agricultural yeidl expectations based on past yields. With this method, the development of expectations on yield trend and variability over time is retrace, and expectations for the future are derived. German winter wheat, corn, and aggregated cereal yield data from 1950 through 2006 on the national scale are used for updating. It is shown that the expectation that yields follow a stable positive linear trend with increasing variance become the dominant hypothesis by 1990, and gains a final weight of more than 99 per cent for all crops considered.