Abstract
Yield development of agricultural crops over time is not merely the result of genetic and agronomic factors, but also the outcome of a complex interaction between climatic and site-specific soil conditions. However, the influence of past climatic changes on yield trends remains unclear, particularly under consideration of different soil conditions. In this study, we determine the effects of single agrometeorological factors on the evolution of German winter wheat yields between 1958 and 2015 from 298 published nitrogen (N)-fertilization experiments. For this purpose, we separate climatic from genetic and agronomic yield effects using linear mixed effect models and estimate the climatic influence based on a coefficient of determination for these models. We found earlier occurrence of wheat growth stages, and shortened development phases except for the phase of stem elongation. Agrometeorological factors are defined as climate covariates related to the growth of winter wheat. Our results indicate a general and strong effect of agroclimatic changes on yield development, in particular due to increasing mean temperatures and heat stress events during the grain-filling period. Except for heat stress days with more than 31°C, yields at sites with higher yield potential were less prone to adverse weather effects than at sites with lower yield potential. Our data furthermore reveal that a potential yield levelling, as found for many West-European countries, predominantly occurred at sites with relatively low yield potential and about one decade earlier (mid-1980s) compared to averaged yield data for the whole of Germany. Interestingly, effects related to high precipitation events were less relevant than temperature-related effects and became relevant particularly during the vegetative growth phase. Overall, this study emphasizes the sensitivity of yield productivity to past climatic conditions, under consideration of regional differences, and underlines the necessity of finding adaptation strategies for food production under ongoing and expected climate change.
Highlights
Historical climate change, and first and foremost rising temperatures during the second half of the 20th century, contributed to profound changes in yield in many major wheat-producing regions globally and in Western Europe in particular (Alexander et al, 2006; Asseng et al, 2014; Frich et al, 2002; Lobell, Schlenker, & Costa-Roberts, 2011)
Wheat has been found to be very sensitive to high temperatures, and its response to heat stress varies at different phenological stages (Farooq, Bramley, Palta, & Siddique, 2011; Slafer & Rawson, 1994)
High temperatures are presumed to be more harmful to grain yield during the reproductive growth phase than during the vegetative phase (VP; Wollenweber, Porter, & Schellberg, 2003)
Summary
Historical climate change, and first and foremost rising temperatures during the second half of the 20th century, contributed to profound changes in yield in many major wheat-producing regions globally and in Western Europe in particular (Alexander et al, 2006; Asseng et al, 2014; Frich et al, 2002; Lobell, Schlenker, & Costa-Roberts, 2011). Besides aspects of climatic change (e.g. increasing temperatures, high precipitation events or drought stress) or the genetic and agronomic progress (expansion of wheat to sites with lower productivity, increasing shares of ‘second wheat’ in crop rotation), socio-economic incentives and/or constraints (e.g. world market price for wheat grain or general production factors; expansion of organic production systems; legal limitations to fertilization; political subsidies, price influences from climate events) were in the focus of research (Brisson et al, 2010; Grassini et al, 2013; Himanen, Hakala, & Kahiluoto, 2013; Laidig et al, 2017; Olesen et al, 2012; Reidsma, Oude Lansink, & Ewert, 2008; Trnka et al, 2019). Understanding the interactive effects of climatic changes and genetic adaptation (i.e. genetic improvement through plant breeding) on yield productivity development is crucial for developing viable crop adaptation strategies to future climate change
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