See Article on Page 743 In response to a donor pool that is persistently insufficient for demand and broadening of indications for liver transplantation, European countries have developed different approaches to organ allocation, taking into account local legislation, organ donation rates, and indications for liver transplantation.1 In their article in Liver Transplantation, Schrem et al.2 reported on the development and validation of a new prognostic model for the prediction of 90‐day mortality after liver transplantation. Developed in a German transplant center, it was validated in Germany and the United Kingdom. The model performed well in the German cohort, with strong predictive ability, but it failed validation in the English cohort. The results of this study confirm the common disappointment within the transplant community on the impossibility of applying the same prognostic model for liver transplantation in different countries, with different health care systems and allocation policies. Therefore, it is not surprising that the model developed in Germany was not able to predict the mortality rate in the United Kingdom. The liver allocation system is radically different in Germany from that in the United Kingdom: Germany is part of Eurotransplant, where allocation is governed by the Eurotransplant Liver Allocation System. This international collaboration is based on medical and logistical criteria with modifications according to the different national laws.3 In Germany, as well as in the other 3 countries of Eurotransplant (Belgium, the Netherlands, and Luxembourg), allocation is patient‐oriented and based on urgency, using the Model for End‐Stage Liver Disease score to prioritize patients on the waiting list. Conversely, in the United Kingdom, liver allocation is center‐based with a national allocation scheme and with donor areas allocated to each center based on the number of new registrations of prospective candidates; and within each center, the priority is based on United Kingdom Model for End‐Stage Liver Disease4 scores and on the decision of the transplant professionals involved.5 The development of the new German prognostic model would have decreased the 90‐day survival benefit if applied to the United Kingdom, whereas it would have had a beneficial effect in German transplant centers. When developing allocation algorithms, a crucial step should be matching donor and recipient risk factors in order to maximize the benefit and to avoid matching with negative impact on posttransplant outcomes. Therefore, if profound differences exist between 2 countries in terms of donor characteristics and candidate clinical severity, it is clear that a model created in one setting will not fit when applied to another one. The importance of uniformity of clinical variables when applying allocation scores to other countries is reflected2 in that only 2 out of the 10 clinical variables used for the new liver allocation score had a significant influence on 90‐day mortality in the United Kingdom cohort, whereas all 10 variables had independent significant influences on 90‐day mortality in the 2 German cohorts. The impracticality of adopting the same allocation scheme for different countries should reinforce the concept that each country or region may need to develop their own predictive model for organ allocation. This is the case in Italy where a critical revision of the current liver allocation policy was recently prepared after a national consensus conference process that involved transplant surgeons and transplant hepatologists. A new national model that blends together the principles of urgency, utility, and transplant benefit has been developed based on current scientific evidence.6 Again, this system of allocation would be hard to translate to other countries, due to different population characteristics, disease burden, and geography that each country or consortium has.7 Lastly, despite some acknowledged limitations of the study by Schrem et al.,2 such as the retrospective design and the lack of information on potentially relevant prognostic variables (ie, graft steatosis), the authors properly pointed out that because allocation schemes offer clinicians schemes, and not rules, there is no obligation for the transplant professional to accept a liver offered for a specific patient. However, in an urgency‐based allocation system, the competition between transplant centers is increased due to the pressure to accept the organ offered for a patient even if the matching between donor and recipient is not optimal. A strong effort should be made by the transplant community to define national prognostic models able to properly optimize the use of a scarce resource, by using balanced principles of urgency and equity, and integrating them with transplant benefit, which is easily made into a mathematical model but difficult to realize in the daily clinical practice when up to 20% of patients still die on the waiting list.
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