German Long-term Care Insurance Research Articles

Generalizability and reach of a randomized controlled trial to improve oral health among home care recipients: comparing participants and nonparticipants at baseline and during follow-up

BackgroundThe generalizability of randomized controlled trials (RCTs) with a low response can be limited by systematic differences between participants and nonparticipants. This participation bias, however, is rarely investigated because data on nonparticipants is usually not available. The purpose of this article is to compare all participants and nonparticipants of a RCT to improve oral health among home care recipients at baseline and during follow-up using claims data.MethodsSeven German statutory health and long-term care insurance funds invited 9656 home care recipients to participate in the RCT MundPflege. Claims data for all participants (n = 527, 5.5% response) and nonparticipants (n = 9129) were analyzed. Associations between trial participation and sex, age, care dependency, number of Elixhauser diseases, and dementia, as well as nursing, medical, and dental care utilization at baseline, were investigated using multivariable logistic regression. Associations between trial participation and the probability of (a) moving into a nursing home, (b) being hospitalized, and (c) death during 1 year of follow-up were examined via Cox proportional hazards regressions, controlling for baseline variables.ResultsAt baseline, trial participation was positively associated with male sex (odds ratio 1.29 [95% confidence interval 1.08–1.54]), high (vs. low 1.46 [1.15–1.86]) care dependency, receiving occasional in-kind benefits to relieve caring relatives (1.45 [1.15–1.84]), having a referral by a general practitioner to a medical specialist (1.62 [1.21–2.18]), and dental care utilization (2.02 [1.67–2.45]). It was negatively associated with being 75–84 (vs. < 60 0.67 [0.50–0.90]) and 85 + (0.50 [0.37–0.69]) years old. For morbidity, hospitalizations, and formal, respite, short-term, and day or night care, no associations were found. During follow-up, participants were less likely to move into a nursing home than nonparticipants (hazard ratio 0.50 [0.32–0.79]). For hospitalizations and mortality, no associations were found.ConclusionsFor half of the comparisons, differences between participants and nonparticipants were observed. The RCT’s generalizability is limited, but to a smaller extent than one would expect because of the low response. Routine data provide a valuable source for investigating potential differences between trial participants and nonparticipants, which might be used by future RCTs to evaluate the generalizability of their findings.Trial registrationGerman Clinical Trials Register DRKS00013517. Retrospectively registered on June 11, 2018.

Influence of the COVID-19 pandemic on the number and duration of care counselling provided by outpatient care services

HintergrundAls Reaktion auf die COVID-19-Pandemie hat der deutsche Gesetzgeber die Rahmenbedingungen für die Pflegeberatung nach § 37 Abs. 3 SGB XI geändert. Die hauptsächlich durch ambulante Pflegedienste erbrachte Pflegeberatung muss (befristet bis zum 31.12.2021) nicht mehr in der Häuslichkeit der Pflegebedürftigen erfolgen, sondern ist auch per Telefon oder online möglich. In 2020 war zudem die bestehende Verpflichtung zur Inanspruchnahme einer Pflegeberatung für Pflegegeldbeziehende für einige Monate ausgesetzt.ZielBeschrieben wird der Einfluss der COVID-19-Pandemie auf Anzahl und Dauer der von ambulanten Pflegediensten erbrachten Pflegeberatungen nach § 37 Abs. 3 SGB XI. Ein besonderes Augenmerk liegt auf der Frage, wie sich die Aussetzung der Beratungsverpflichtung auf die Inanspruchnahme von Pflegeberatungen ausgewirkt hat.MethodeSekundäranalyse von über 43.000 Datensätzen der BARMER Pflegekasse in Bayern, die ursprünglich zum Zwecke der Abrechnung gesammelt und gespeichert wurden. Auswertung in erster Linie mittels Zeitreihenanalysen und anderer deskriptiver Statistiken. Zusätzlich wurde die Korrelation zwischen der wöchentlichen Anzahl der Pflegeberatungen und den dem Robert Koch-Institut gemeldeten COVID-19-Fälle in Bayern ermittelt.ErgebnisseEnde März bis Mitte April 2020 verringerte sich die Zahl der Beratungen gegenüber Februar 2020 um fast 80 %. Für diesen Einbruch der Beratungszahlen war die Sorge vor einer Ansteckung mit SARS-CoV-2 entscheidend. Ermöglicht wurde der Rückgang aber zusätzlich durch die am 27.03.2020 beschlossene Aussetzung der Beratungspflicht. Die Aussetzung der Beratungspflicht allein hat in Bayern zu einem Rückgang zwischen 44 und 49 % geführt. Die vorliegenden Daten zeigen ferner, dass telefonische Pflegeberatungen im Durchschnitt kürzer sind als Präsenzberatungen.SchlussfolgerungenDie vorliegenden Daten deuten darauf hin, dass nur rund die Hälfte der Pflegeberatungen von Pflegebedürftigen in Anspruch genommen würde, wenn die in § 37 Abs. 3 verankerte Beratungsverpflichtung dauerhaft wegfiele. Außerdem enthalten sie Hinweise darauf, dass Beratungen bei einer Abrechnung nach Zeit im Durchschnitt kürzer sind als bei einer Abrechnung mittels Einsatzpauschalen.

Health-economic evaluation of collaborative orthogeriatric care for patients with a hip fracture in Germany: a retrospective cohort study using health and long-term care insurance claims data

BackgroundEvidence suggests benefits of orthogeriatric co-management (OGCM) for hip fracture patients. Yet, evidence on cost-effectiveness is limited and based on small datasets. The aim of our study was to conduct an economic evaluation of the German OGCM for geriatric hip fracture patients.MethodsThis retrospective cohort study was based on German health and long-term care insurance data. Individuals were 80 years and older, sustained a hip fracture in 2014, and were treated in hospitals providing OGCM (OGCM group) or standard care (control group). Health care costs from payer and societal perspective, life years gained (LYG) and cost-effectiveness were investigated within 1 year. We applied weighted gamma and two-part models, and entropy balancing to account for the lack of randomisation. We calculated incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICER) and employed the net-benefit approach to construct cost-effectiveness acceptability curves.Results14,005 patients were treated in OGCM, and 10,512 in standard care hospitals. Total average health care costs per patient were higher in the OGCM group: €1181.53 (p < 0.001) from payer perspective, and €1408.21 (p < 0.001) from societal perspective. The ICER equalled €52,378.12/ LYG from payer and €75,703.44/ LYG from societal perspective. The probability for cost-effectiveness would be 95% if the willingness-to-pay was higher than €82,000/ LYG from payer, and €95,000/ LYG from societal perspective.ConclusionSurvival improved in hospitals providing OGCM. Costs were found to increase, driven by inpatient and long-term care. The cost-effectiveness depends on the willingness-to-pay. The ICER is likely to improve with a longer follow-up.

A Model-Based Estimation of Annual Long-Term Care Costs in Germany Following Post-Operative Cognitive Dysfunction (POCD) in Elderly Patients

Acute post-operative delirium (POD) and long-term post-operative cognitive dysfunction (POCD) are frequent and associated with increased mortality, dependency on care giving and institutionalization rates. The POCD-related cost burden on the German long-term care insurance provides an indication for the savings potential from risk-adapted treatment schemes. Comprehensive estimates have not been assessed or published so far. A model-based cost-analysis was designed to estimate POCD-related costs in the long-term care insurance. Comprehensive analysis of inpatient operations and procedures (OPS-codes) served as the base for case number calculations, which were then used as input to the actual cost model. POCD-incidence rates were obtained from the BioCog study. Various sensitivity analyses were performed to assess uncertainty of the model results. Total POCD related annual costs in the German long-term care insurance account for approximately 1.6 billion EUR according to the base case of our analysis. Total annual costs for all POCD cases depend on surgery numbers, incidence rates, other assumptions, and uncertain input parameters. The financial burden to the long-term care insurance is substantial, even in a conservative scenario of the cost model. Variability of results stems from uncertain assumptions, POCD-incidence rates and from uncertain patient numbers who are undergoing surgery and are therefore at risk to develop POCD.

Körperliche Aktivität und Aktivitäten des täglichen Lebens bei Bewohnerinnen und Bewohnern in der stationären Pflege - eine systematische Übersicht und Metaanalyse

BackgroundInterventions to promote physical activity in nursing homes are among the priorities of German long-term care insurance funds. We summarized the evidence on the effectiveness of such interventions. MethodsWe conducted a systematic literature search in five electronic databases in November 2019, which was complemented by searching reference lists and trials registries. Eligible studies included individually (RCTs) or cluster randomized trials or non-randomized comparative studies that investigated the effectiveness of interventions to promote physical activity in nursing home residents and their impact on the ability to perform activities of daily living. Results were synthesized using random effects meta-analysis. ResultsMeta-analysis of 19 included studies with high risk of bias showed a small yet statistically significant effect on activities of daily living (SMD = 0.40, 95 % CI 0.08–0.72); heterogeneity was substantial (I2 = 77 %, p < 0.0001). Sensitivity analysis excluding two non-randomized comparative studies did not alter the results (SMD = 0.40, 95 % CI 0.03–0.76). The effect attenuated but was still statistically significant in a meta-analysis which excluded five studies that were largely responsible for the heterogeneity (SMD = 0.27, 95 % CI 0.12–0.43, I2=34 %, p = 0.10). Subgroup analyses did not demonstrate any statistically significant results in favour of physical activity. DiscussionWe found evidence for a beneficial effect on activities of daily living in favour of interventions that aim to promote physical activity. Due to the high overall risk of bias and substantial heterogeneity of the included studies the results should be interpreted with caution, though. ConclusionMethodologically sound studies are needed to strengthen the evidence base on the topic.

Impact of morbidity on care need increase and mortality in nursing homes: a retrospective longitudinal study using administrative claims data

BackgroundA growing number of older people are care dependent and live in nursing homes, which accounts for the majority of long-term-care spending. Specific medical conditions and resident characteristics may serve as risk factors predicting negative health outcomes. We investigated the association between the risk of increasing care need and chronic medical conditions among nursing home residents, allowing for the competing risk of mortality.MethodsIn this retrospective longitudinal study based on health insurance claims data, we investigated 20,485 older adults (≥65 years) admitted to German nursing homes between April 2007 and March 2014 with care need level 1 or 2 (according to the three level classification of the German long-term care insurance). This classification is based on required daily time needed for assistance. The outcome was care level change. Medical conditions were determined according to 31 Charlson and Elixhauser conditions. Competing risks analyses were applied to identify chronic medical conditions associated with risk of care level change and mortality.ResultsThe probability for care level change and mortality acted in opposite directions. Dementia was associated with increased probability of care level change compared to other conditions. Patients who had cancer, myocardial infarction, congestive heart failure, cardiac arrhythmias, renal failure, chronic pulmonary disease, weight loss, or recent hospitalization were more likely to die, as well as residents with paralysis and obesity when admitted with care level 2.ConclusionThis paper identified risk groups of nursing home residents which are particularly prone to increasing care need or mortality. This enables focusing on these risk group to offer prevention or special treatment. Moreover, residents seemed to follow specific trajectories depending on their medical conditions. Some were more prone to increased care need while others had a high risk of mortality instead. Several conditions were neither related to increased care need nor mortality, e.g., valvular, cerebrovascular or liver disease, peripheral vascular disorder, blood loss anemia, depression, drug abuse and psychosis. Knowledge of functional status trajectories of residents over time after nursing home admission can help decision-makers when planning and preparing future care provision strategies (e.g., planning of staffing, physical equipment and financial resources).

Claims data analysis of medical specialist utilization among nursing home residents and community-dwelling older people

BackgroundMost older people, and especially those in need of long-term care, suffer from one or more chronic diseases. Consequently, older people have an increased need of medical care, including specialist care. There is little evidence as yet whether older people with greater medical care needs obtain adequate medical care because existing studies do not sufficiently control for differences in morbidity. In this study we investigate whether differences in medical specialist utilization exist between older people with and without assessed long-term care need in line with Book XI of the German Social Code, while at the same time controlling for individual differences in morbidity.MethodsWe used data from the 11 German AOK Statutory Health and Long-term Care Insurance funds of 100,000 members aged 60 years or over. Zero-inflated Poisson regression analyses were applied to investigate whether the need for long-term care and the long-term care setting are associated with the probability and number of specialist visits. We controlled for age, gender, morbidity and mortality, residential density, and general practitioner (GP) utilization.ResultsOlder people in need of long-term care are more likely to have no specialist visit than people without the need for long-term care. This applies to nearly all medical specialties and for both care settings. Yet, despite these differences in utilization probability the number of specialist medical care visits between older people with and without the need for long-term care is similar.ConclusionOlder people in need of long-term care might face access barriers to specialist care. Once a contact is established, however, utilization does not differ considerably between those who need long-term care and those who don’t; this indicates the importance of securing an initial contact.

Patient Characteristics as Indicator for Care Dependence after Hip Fracture: A Retrospective Cohort Study Using Health Insurance Claims Data From Germany

ObjectivesHip fractures are common consequences of falls in older adults and, among other negative health outcomes, often lead to care dependence in the long term. Until 2016, the German long-term care insurance classified care recipients according to a standardized classification system consisting of 3 care levels. It was based on required assistance in performing activities of daily living and assessed by a qualified physician or nurse. Thus, care level reflects the degree of care dependence. The aim of this study was to determine relevant patient characteristics, which are related to the likelihood of increasing care dependence in terms of worsening care level after hip fracture. DesignRetrospective cohort study. Setting and participantsStatutory health insurance claims data including 122,922 insured individuals living in Germany and aged 65 years or older, who sustained a hip fracture from 2009 through 2011. MeasuresThe association of patient characteristics with worsening care level in the quarterly period after hip fracture was investigated by means of multinomial logit regression analysis. Death constitutes a competing risk and was modeled as additional nominal outcome. ResultsAmong all patients, crude rates were 30.9% for worsening care level, 54.8% for unchanged care level, and 14.4% for death after hip fracture. The multivariate analysis revealed that patient factors male sex, increasing age, increasing comorbidity, increasing inpatient length of stay, and a lack of inpatient rehabilitation were significantly associated with a worsening care level. Conclusions/ImplicationsThis study uses the German standardized measurement of care dependence in terms of worsening care level after hip fracture and finds various related patient characteristics. Knowledge of these characteristics helps to identify possible risk groups for care dependence after hip fracture, for which special attention can be provided regarding treatment and prevention of hip fractures.

Labor supply effects of long-term care reform in Germany.

Many informal caregivers are of working age, facing the double burden of providing care and working. Negative labor supply effects can severely reduce the comparative cost advantage of informal over formal care arrangements. When designing long-term care (LTC) policies, it is crucial to understand the effects not only on health outcomes but also on labor supply behavior of informal caregivers. We evaluate labor supply reactions to the introduction of the German long-term care insurance in 1995 using a difference-in-differences approach. The long-term care insurance changes the caregivers' trade-off between labor supply and care provision. The aim of the reform was to strengthen informal care arrangements. We find a strong negative labor supply effect for men but not for women. We argue that the LTC benefits increased incentives for older men to leave the labor market. The results reveal a trade-off for policy makers that is important for future reforms-in particular for countries that mainly base their LTC system on informal care.

„Ganz oder gar nicht?“ Nutzung der Betreuungs- und Entlastungsleistungen durch Menschen mit Demenz in der Pflegekarriere. Eine Kohortenstudie auf Basis von GKV-Routinedaten

ObjectiveCaregiving often is a demanding task for family caregivers of people with dementia. In order to provide relief for caregivers and stabilize informal care, care and relief services for people with dementia and their caregivers were established by the German long-term care insurance (“Pflegeversicherung”). It is unknown how many people with dementia have used the additional care and relief services over the time and which characteristics predict permanent utilization. MethodsThe analysis is based on administrative data. 2,887 people with prevalent dementia were followed from 2012 to 2015. The data was analyzed descriptively and by logistic regression. ResultsAbout a quarter of the observed people with dementia continuously used the additional care and relief services from 2012 to 2015. 22.8% used them since 2013, while nearly a quarter made no use whatsoever of the services during the observation period. The probability of using care and relief services is higher when using an outpatient nursing service in comparison to family care and when the care level has gone up in the year before use. ConclusionPermanent utilization of care and relief services seems to be based on need in most cases. It could also be a learning effect or supplier-induced when simultaneously using an outpatient nursing service. People who discontinued service use or never used it could provide further information in order to adjust the additional care and relief services program.

The German Long-Term Care Insurance Program: Evolution and Recent Developments.

Since 1995, Germany has operated one of the longest-running public programs providing universal support for the cost of long term services and supports (LTSS). Its self-funding, social insurance approach provides basic supports to nearly all Germans. We discuss its design and development, including recent reforms expanding the program and ensuring its ongoing sustainability. The study reviews legislative and programmatic changes, using program data, as well as legislative documents and program reports. The program is widely accepted among citizens and has achieved many of its original goals: ensuring access to LTSS and reducing reliance on the locally-funded safety-net social assistance program, which can be used to cover nursing home costs. It also strengthened the LTSS provider infrastructure and expanded access to home care. Recent reforms have addressed some of the program's key issues: the benefit's decreasing value, the eligibility and benefit structure that largely excluded cognitive impairment, and the program's longer-term financial sustainability-particularly its ability to sustain newly expanded benefits, which provide stronger protections to caregivers, index-link benefits, and more systematically incorporate cognitive impairment via a new assessment system. It has addressed financing issues by increasing premiums, introducing subsidies for the purchase of private insurance, and creating a "demographic reserve fund." The reforms constitute a significant strengthening of the program, remarkable in an era of retrenchment. Overall, the program provides evidence for the financial viability of a social insurance model, although longer-term challenges may yet arise.

A Study on the Reform of German Long-term Care Insurance as a Result of Care Enforcement Laws

A Study on the Reform of German Long-term Care Insurance as a Result of Care Enforcement Laws

Nach dem Pflegestärkungsgesetz II: Eine alternative Interpretation der Probleme und ein Plädoyer für potenzialorientierte Reformen

Abstract The German long-term care insurance has been introduced 20 years ago and recently reformed, but is still subject to criticism. A continued decline of informal care-giving is indicated by a decreasing percentage of people who receive cash benefits for informal care. It renders the political goal of strengthening informal care unachievable, even though it would contribute to the financial sustainability and a more encompassing approach to care. Referring to socio-demographic developments, the author suggests a capability-oriented policy strategy aiming at the mobilization of resources within the social proximity of the affected elderly. Such a strategy would not only contribute to reduce costs, but would also increase quality of life and public legitimacy. As part of such an approach policy instruments will be discussed that aim at activating and facilitating informal care.

Who exactly are these "persons with limitations in daily living skills"? : Survey of insured persons based on health insurance data

In recent years German long-term care insurance coverage has gradually been extended to include services for people with limitations in daily living skills. Until now, however, it was unclear who exactly people with limited daily living skills are. The study aimed to characterize people with limited daily living skills who use additional support services as defined by §45b of the Social Services Code XI (SGBXI). This study was based on a survey of 1284 people with limited daily living skills who used additional support services (§45b SGBXI). The data were analyzed descriptively. The average recipient was 81 years old, mainly in care level I and the majority of them were exclusively cared for by relatives. Of these recipients 61 % were diagnosed with dementia, 73.4 % had medium cognitive impairments while more than half could no longer carry out the instrumental activities of daily living (IADL). Statistics on people with limited daily living skills should be included in publications and reports so that the need for care and assistance can be estimated more precisely.

Low-threshold support services for people with dementia within the scope of respite care in Germany - A qualitative study on different stakeholders' perspective.

Low-threshold support services are provided within the basket of services of German long-term care insurance as a part of respite care to support family carers and people with dementia. This study investigates various stakeholders' (providers, coordinators, volunteers, family carers and people with dementia) perspectives on low-threshold support service regarding its organisation and conceptualisation as well as how stakeholders and users value low-threshold support service using a qualitative approach. Twelve guided interviews and group discussions were conducted with 31 participants. Organisation and conceptualisation are characterised by the lowness of the service thresholds, which is perceived to be quick and simple forms of support with no user requirements. Multiple barriers such as the challenging behaviour of people with dementia and their initial refusal as well as their holding low-threshold support service in low esteem can hinder the utilisation of these services. Low-threshold support service within the scope of the long-term care insurance law can be separated into two types: low-cost (non-professional) services and high-cost services with comprehensive training for 'employed' volunteers (professional). Both types are constantly developing within the landscape of the German long-term care system, and low-threshold support service appears to be adapted to diverse needs. Therefore, it is important to avoid replacing non-professional services with professional services.

Lemons or Cherries? Asymmetric Information in the German Private Long-term Care Insurance Market

This study provides evidence of the presence of asymmetric information in the German long-term care (LTC) insurance market. While certain private information—individuals’ pessimism level and preference for insurance—contributes to advantageous selection, the major source of adverse selection—individuals’ self-assessed high LTC risk—switches the final correlation between insurance and risk to one that is significantly positive. In addition, the study reveals that although individuals’ self-assessment of poor health predicts their future care needs very well, such assessments are not necessarily reflected in insurance demand. The results from this study could assist insurers in better understanding and managing LTC risk.

Over- and undersupply in home care: a representative multicenter correlational study.

Quality assurance and funding of care become a major challenge against the background of demographic changes in western societies. The primary aim of the study was to identify possible misclassification, respectively over and undersupply of care by comparing the Barthel Index of clients of home care service with the level of care (Stage 0, I, II, III) according to the statutory German long-term care insurance. In 2012, a multi-center point prevalence study of 878 randomly selected clients of 100 randomly selected home care services across Germany was conducted. According to a standardized study protocol, demographics, the Barthel Index and the nurses' professional judgment-whether a client requires more nursing care-were assessed. Associations of the Barthel items and professional judgment were analyzed using univariate (Chi-square) and multivariate (logistic regression and classification-regression-tree-models) statistics. In each level of care, the Barthel Index showed large variability e.g. in level II ranging from 0 to 100 points. Multivariate logistic regression regarding possible under- and oversupply revealed occasionally fecal incontinence (2.1; 95 % CI 1.2-3.7), urinary incontinence (2.0; 95 % CI 1.1-3.6), feeding (1.7; 95 % CI 1.0-2.9), immobility (0.2; 95 % CI 0.1-0.6) and to be female (1.8; 95 % CI 1.2-2.6) to be statistically significantly associated. The variability in Barthel Index in each level of care found in this study indicated a large general misclassification of home care clients according to their actual need of care. Professional caregivers identified occasional incontinence, help with eating and drinking and mobility (especially in female clients) as areas of possible under- and oversupply of care. The statutory German long-term care insurance classification should be modified according to the above finding to increase the quality of care in home care clients.

Rehabilitation vor Pflegebedürftigkeit im Alter: eine Analyse anhand von Routinedaten

Medical rehabilitation of statutory health insurance (SHI) in Germany aims at prevention of (increasing) disability and thus the need for long-term care. The paper examines the inpatient rehabilitation care utilization in the elderly based on claims data, taking into account the need of pre-existing long-term care (LTC) in according to the German Long-Term Care Insurance and further changes (survival, LTC level). Anonymous data from inpatient medical rehabilitation of AOK-insured patients ≥ 65 years (2008/2009) following different treatment pathways were evaluated: early rehabilitation while hospital treatment (FR), combined treatment with early and subsequent rehabilitation (F-/AR), subsequent rehabilitation after hospital treatment (AR); rehabilitation without previous hospital treatment (SR). Survival and LTC-Level (higher level=higher care demands) were tracked for 12 months after utilization of rehabilitation. The extent of pre-existing levels of LTC ≥ 1 was in FR 44.1%, in F-/AR 19.1%, in AR 10.1% and in SR 15.9%. Above-average shares of geriatric indications and below-average shares of orthopaedic indications were observed for all 4 groups. LTC levels remained unchanged for varying percentages of patients in the treatment groups (FR 57%, F-/AR 46%, AR 85%, SR 92%). Higher LTC-Levels were observed for 42% of cases in the FR group, 54% in the F-/AR group, and only 14% and 7% in the AR and the SR group respectively. Lower LTC-Levels could be found in less than 1% of the cases in all groups. Survival rates varied significantly (72% FR, F-/AR 84%, AR 92% and 96% SR). Cases with a pre-existing care level had significantly reduced survival rates. The results could be confirmed after standardization for age and gender. The current application of the legal principle "rehabilitation before LTC" for older insurants is in SHI mainly segmented afterwards or integrated into hospital treatment but rarely combined intersectoral or conducted without immediately preceding hospital-treatment.

Crowding Out Informal Care? Evidence from a Field Experiment in Germany*

This paper evaluates the effects of a professionally assisted consumer-directed program (Personal Budgets) compared to the standard home care programs of the German long-term care insurance. The evaluation makes use of a long-run social experiment at seven different sites with a random assignment into a treatment group receiving personal budgets and a control group in standard home care programs, i.e. an in-kind benefit (agency care) and cash payments. Compared to agency care personal budgets yield better care outcomes with regard to the overall support of formal and informal caregivers. In contrast, personal budgets do not improve care outcomes compared to the much less generous cash payments due to a strong crowding out of informal by formal care.

Are Personal Budgets a Financially Sound Reform Option for the German Long-Term Care Insurance?

Summary In a long-run social experiment, personal budgets have been tested as an alternative home care program of the German long-term care insurance (LTCI). By granting the monetary value of in kind services in cash, personal budgets are considered to enable customized home care arrangements, thereby avoiding costly nursing home care and thus saving LTCI spending. However, personal budgets also compete with the already existing and less generous cash option of the LTCI. Any transition from the receipt of cash benefits to personal budgets thus challenges the view of personal budgets as a cost savings device, unless personal budgets sufficiently reduce the use of costly nursing home care to balance these extra costs. This paper therefore contrasts the short-term costs of implementing personal budgets with potential cost savings if personal budgets enhance the stability of home care and avoid costly nursing home care. For this purpose, the paper investigates the effects of personal budgets on the duration of home care until moving to a nursing home as well as the perceived stability of home care. Despite a positive effect of personal budgets on the stability of home care, LTCI spending is likely to increase in the short to medium run. In the long run, however, the expected transition to decreasing numbers of cash recipients favors the introduction of personal budgets.