Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite Research Articles

Novel Comparison of Pyrocumulonimbus Updrafts to Volcanic Eruptions and Supercell Thunderstorms Using Optical Flow Techniques

AbstractConvective dynamics in a supercell thunderstorm, a volcanic eruption, and two pyrocumulonimbus (pyroCb) events are compared by computing cloud‐top divergence (CTD) with an optical flow technique called Deepflow. Visible 0.64‐μm imagery sequences from Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellites (GOES)‐R series Advanced Baseline Imager (ABI) are used as input into the optical flow algorithm. CTD is computed after post‐processing of the retrieved motions. Analysis is performed on specific image times, as well as the full time series of each case. Multiple CTD‐based parameters, such as the maximum and the two‐dimensional area exceeding a specified CTD threshold, are examined along with the optical flow‐retrieved wind speed. CTD is shown to accurately and quantitatively represent the behavior and magnitude of different deep convective phenomena, including distinguishing between convective pulses within each individual event. CTD captures updraft intensification as well as differences in convective activity between two pyroCb events and individual updraft pulses occurring within a single pyroCb event. Finally, the characteristics of high‐altitude smoke plumes injected by two separate pyroCb pulses are linked to CTD using ultraviolet aerosol index and satellite imagery. Optical flow‐derived parameters can therefore be applied to individual pyroCbs in real‐time, with potential to characterize pyroCb smoke source inputs for downstream smoke modeling applications and to facilitate future tools supporting air quality modeling and firefighting efforts.

Evaluation of WRF-Chem air quality forecasts during the AEROMMA and STAQS 2023 field campaigns

ABSTRACT A real-time air quality forecasting system was developed using the Weather Research and Forecasting model coupled with Chemistry (WRF-Chem) to provide support for flight planning activities during the NOAA Atmospheric Emissions and Reactions Observed from Megacities to Marine Areas (AEROMMA) and NASA Synergistic TEMPO Air Quality Science (STAQS) 2023 field campaigns. The forecasting system operated on two separate domains centered on Chicago, IL, and New York City, NY, and provided 72-hour predictions of atmospheric composition, aerosols, and clouds. This study evaluates the Chicago-centered forecasting system’s 1-, 2-, and 3-day ozone (O3) forecast skill for Chiwaukee Prairie, WI, a rural area downwind of Chicago that often experiences high levels of O3 pollution. Comparisons to vertical O3 profiles collected by a Tropospheric Ozone Lidar Network (TOLNet) instrument revealed that forecast skill decreases as forecast lead time increases. When compared to surface measurements, the forecasting system tended to underestimate O3 concentrations on high O3 days and overestimate on low O3 days at Chiwaukee Prairie regardless of forecast lead time. Using July 25, 2023, as a case study, analyses show that the forecasts underestimated peak O3 levels at Chiwaukee Prairie during this regionwide bad air quality day. Wind speed and direction data indicates that this underestimation can partially be attributed to lake breeze simulation errors. Surface fine particulate matter (PM2.5) measurements, Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite-16 (GOES-16) aerosol optical depth (AOD) data, and back trajectories from the NOAA Hybrid Single-Particle Lagrangian Integrated Trajectory (HYSPLIT) model show that transported Canadian wildfire smoke impacted the Lake Michigan region on this day. Errors in the forecasted chemical composition and transport of the smoke plumes also contributed to underpredictions of O3 levels at Chiwaukee Prairie on July 25, 2023. The results of this work help identify improvements that can be made for future iterations of the WRF-Chem forecasting system. Implications: Air quality forecasting is an important tool that can be used to inform the public about upcoming high pollution days so that individuals may plan accordingly to limit their exposure to health-damaging air pollutants. Forecasting also helps scientists make decisions about where to make observations during air quality field campaigns. A variety of observational datasets were used to evaluate the accuracy of an air quality forecasting system that was developed for NOAA and NASA field campaigns that occurred in the summer of 2023. These evaluations inform areas of improvement for future development of this air quality forecasting system.

Evolution of Energetic Proton Parallel Pressure Anisotropy at Geosynchronous Altitudes: Potential Role in Triggering Substorm Expansion Phase Onset

AbstractThe sequence of events associated with the triggering of energy release during substorm expansion phase onset is still not well‐understood. Oberhagemann and Mann (2020b, https://doi.org/10.1029/2019gl085271) proposed a new substorm onset mechanism, where the transition toward parallel proton pressure anisotropy during tail stretching in the late growth phase could trigger a pressure anisotropic ballooning instability. Here we examine the evolution of energetic proton parallel pressure anisotropy at geosynchronous altitudes, seeking evidence in support of the proposed substorm onset mechanism. We use the Geostationary Operational Environment Satellite (GOES) proton flux and magnetometer data combined with substorm onset indicators derived from ground‐based magnetometers. Superposed epoch analysis of substorm onset times for 2014 using the isolated substorm list (Ohtani & Gjerloev, 2020, https://doi.org/10.1029/2020ja027902) clearly shows signatures of energetic proton parallel pressure anisotropy immediately before substorm onset, potentially supportive of the Oberhagemann and Mann theory.

Machine learning techniques for estimation of Pc5 geomagnetic pulsations observed at geostationary orbits during solar cycle 23

Pc5 geomagnetic pulsations can accelerate electrons in the radiation belts, which can pose adverse threats to both astronauts and satellites in space. The estimation of Pc5 waves in space is crucial to radiation belt dynamics studies and will help mitigate these challenges. Here, we explore the advantages of the Feed-forward Neural Network (FFNN) and Random Forest (RF) algorithm for effective estimation of Pc5 geomagnetic pulsations observed in space at geostationary orbit during solar cycle 23. The dataset used in this study is the vector magnetic field measurements retrieved from the Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite-10 (GOES-10) and the solar wind parameters: Bz and Vx component of the solar wind in the Geocentric Solar Ecliptic (GSE) coordinate system, proton density, flow pressure, and plasma beta obtained from the OMNI Web database during part of solar cycle 23. Pc5 geomagnetic pulsations were extracted from the toroidal component of the magnetic field time series using a bandpass Butterworth filter. The continuous wavelet transform (CWT) was utilized to study the characteristics of the extracted wave in the time-frequency domain for its validation. The validated Pc5 events were used as the target in the model's development, with the solar wind parameters as the inputs. In addition to the solar wind parameters, we included an attribute of the magnetic field time series as an input variable in the model. The dataset is carefully divided to ensure effective training and testing of the models. Finally, we trained both models using the same inputs and targets and explored their estimation abilities. The model was tested during the maximum, descending, and minimum phases of solar cycle 23. Both the FFNN and RF models have a similar estimation, with average cross-correlation score (R) values of 0.74 and 0.73 and corresponding average root mean squared error (RMSEs) of 0.16 nT and 0.67 nT, respectively. The model was deployed to investigate the response of Pc5 waves during three storm days in each testing year. The machine learning (ML) model outputs showed good coherence with the observed Pc5 waves. To validate the models, we studied the correlation between the estimated Pc5 events with the Kp index, and a good correlation was seen to exist between both events. This validates the good performance of the developed models. This work will aid in the study of radiation belt dynamics and the construction of electron depletion regions in the radiation belt.

Shallow- and deep-convection characteristics in the greater Houston, Texas, area using cell tracking methodology

Abstract. The convective lifecycle, from initiation to maturity and dissipation, is driven by a combination of kinematic, thermodynamic, microphysical, and radiative processes that are strongly coupled and variable in time and space. Weather radars have been traditionally used to provide various convective-cloud characteristics. Here, we analyzed climatological convective-cell radar characteristics to obtain and assess the diurnal cycles of three convective-cell types – shallow, modest deep, and vigorous deep convective cells – that formed in the greater Houston area, using the National Weather Service radar from Houston, Texas, and a multi-cell identification and tracking algorithm. The examined dataset spans 4 years (2018–2021) and covers the warm-season months (June to September) in those years. The analysis showed clear diurnal cycles in cell initiation (CI) consistent with the sea breeze circulation and showed diurnal and normalized lifetime relationships in cell evolution parameters (e.g., maximum reflectivity, echo-top height, Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite-16 (GOES-16) channel 13 brightness temperature, and the height of maximum reflectivity). The cell evolution is well represented by relationships between (1) the height and value of the maximum radar reflectivity, (2) the minimum GOES-16 channel 13 brightness temperature and the maximum vertically integrated liquid, (3) the maximum reflectivity and columnar-average reflectivity, and (4) the echo-top ascent rate and cell lifetime. The relationships presented herein help to identify the cell lifecycle stages such as early shallow convection, vigorous vertical development, anvil development, and convective core dissipation. GOES-16 Aerosol Optical Depth values are also used as a proxy for cell initiation aerosol concentrations to investigate any potential relationships between initiation location and aerosol concentration. Overall, no significant relationships between initiation location and aerosol concentration were found for the three cell types investigated, but there are some minor differences in the pre-CI aerosol optical depth for vigorous deep convective cells.

Thermal infrared shadow-hiding in GOES-R ABI imagery: snow and forest temperature observations from the SnowEx 2020 Grand Mesa field campaign

Abstract. The high temporal resolution of thermal infrared imagery from the Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellites R-series (GOES-R) presents an opportunity to observe mountain snow and forest temperatures over the full diurnal cycle. However, the off-nadir views of these imagers may impact or bias temperature observations, especially when viewing a surface composed of both snow and forests. We used GOES-16 and -17 thermal infrared brightness temperature observations of a flat snow- and forest-covered study site at Grand Mesa, Colorado, USA, to characterize how forest coverage and view angle impact these observations. These two geostationary satellites provided views of the study area from the southeast (134.1° azimuth, 33.5° elevation) and southwest (221.2° azimuth, 35.9° elevation), respectively. As part of the NASA SnowEx field campaign in February 2020, coincident brightness temperature observations from ground-based and airborne IR sensors were collected to compare with those from the geostationary satellites. Observations over the course of 2 cloud-free days spanned the entire study site. The brightness temperature observations from each dataset were compared to find their relative differences and how those differences may have varied over time and/or as a function of varying forest cover across the study area. GOES-16 and -17 brightness temperatures were found to match the diurnal cycle and temperature range within ∼ 1 h and ± 3 K of ground-based observations. GOES-16 and -17 were both biased warmer than nadir-looking airborne IR and ASTER observations. The warm biases were higher at times when the sun–satellite phase angle was near its daily minimum. The phase angle, the angle between the direction of incoming solar illumination and the direction from which the satellite is viewing, reached daily minimums in the morning for GOES-16 and afternoon for GOES-17. In morning observations, warm biases in GOES-16 brightness temperature were greater for pixels that contained more forest coverage. The observations suggest that a “thermal infrared shadow-hiding” effect may be occurring, where the geostationary satellites are preferentially seeing the warmer sunlit sides of trees at different times of day. These biases are important to understand for applications using GOES-R brightness temperatures or derived land surface temperatures (LSTs) over areas with surface roughness features, such as forests, that could exhibit a thermal infrared shadow-hiding effect.

Short-term Classification of Strong Solar Energetic Particle Events Using Multivariate Time-series Classifiers

Solar energetic particle (SEP) events are one of the most crucial aspects of space weather that require continuous monitoring and forecasting. Their prediction depends on various factors, including source eruptions. In the present work, we use the Geostationary Solar Energetic Particle data set covering solar cycles 22, 23, and 24. We develop a framework using time-series-based machine-learning (ML) models with the aim of developing robust short-term forecasts by classifying SEP events. For this purpose, we introduce an ensemble learning approach that merges the results from univariate time series of three proton channels (E ≥10, 50, and 100 MeV) and the long-band X-ray flux (1–8 Å) channel from the Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite missions and analyze their performance. We consider three models, namely, time series forest, supervised time series forest (STSF), and Bag-of-Symbolic Fourier Approximation Symbols. Our study also focuses on understanding and developing confidence in the predictive capabilities of our models. Therefore, we utilize multiple evaluation techniques and metrics. Based on that, we find STSF to perform well in all scenarios. The summary of metrics for the STSF model is as follows: the area under the ROC curve = 0.981, F 1-score = 0.960, true skill statistics = 0.919, Heidke skill score = 0.920, Gilbert skill score = 0.852, and Matthew’s correlation coefficient = 0.920. The Brier score loss of the STSF model is 0.077. This work lays the foundation for building near-real-time short-term SEP event predictions using robust ML methods.

The effects of changes in HITRAN and the water vapor continuum model on infrared radiative transfer calculations and remote sensing applications

This study examines the implications of recent updates to the High Resolution Transmission (HITRAN) database and the MT_CKD water vapor continuum model on infrared radiative transfer calculations and satellite remote sensing applications. Specifically, it assesses the impact of the latest versions of the HITRAN database (i.e. HITRAN2016 and HITRAN2020) and the MT_CKD WV continuum model (i.e. versions 3.2 and 4.1.1) on clear-sky infrared flux calculations and the simulation of satellite infrared channels, specifically those of the Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite (GOES) Advanced Baseline Imager (ABI). The results indicate that updates to the MT_CKD model tend to reduce atmospheric opacity, while updates to the HITRAN database have the opposite effect. The most significant differences noted are attributed to updates in the MT_CKD, leading to an increase in upward flux of 0.13 Wm−2 for the TRO and a decrease in downward flux of 0.28 Wm−2 for the MLS profile. However, these impacts are not uniform across the spectrum, atmospheric height, or among different atmospheric profiles. Notably, changes in the WV continuum model have significant effects in the far-infrared region. The updates in HITRAN exhibit pronounced differences associated with changes in the spectroscopic parameters of H2O, CO2 and O3. The results of GOES’ ABI channels indicate that changes in HITRAN lead to an average brightness temperature decrease of 0.3 K for channel 12, which exceeds the channel’s sensitivity. This research underscores the importance of continuous updates and evaluations of spectroscopic databases and radiative transfer models to improve the accuracy of atmospheric remote sensing data.

Intersatellite Comparisons of GOES Magnetic Field Measurements

AbstractGOES‐16 and GOES‐17 are the first of NOAA's Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite (GOES)‐R series of satellites. Each GOES‐R satellite has a magnetometer mounted on the end (outboard) and one part‐way down a long boom (inboard). This paper demonstrates the relative accuracy and stability of the measurements on a daily and long‐term basis. The GOES‐16 and GOES‐17 magnetic field observations from 2017 to 2020 have been compared to simultaneous magnetic field observations from each other and from the previous GOES‐NOP series satellites (GOES‐13, GOES‐14 and GOES‐15). These comparisons provide assessments of relative accuracy and stability. We use a field model to facilitate the inter‐satellite comparisons at different longitudes. GOES‐16 inboard and outboard magnetometers data suffer daily variations which cannot be explained by natural phenomena. Long‐term‐averaged GOES‐16 outboard (OB) data has daily variations of ±3 nT from average values with one‐sigma uncertainty of ±1.5 nT. Long‐term averaged GOES‐17OB magnetometer data have minimal daily variations. Daily average of the difference between the GOES‐16 outboard or GOES‐17 outboard measurements and the measurements made by another GOES satellite are computed. The long‐term averaged results show the GOES‐16OB and GOES‐17OB measurements have long‐term stability (±2 nT or less) and match measurements from magnetometers on other GOES within limits stated herein. The GOES‐17OB operational offset (zero field value) was refined using the GOES‐17 satellite rotated 180° about the Earth pointing axis (known as a yaw flip).

Association of land surface temperature anomalies from GOES/ABI, MSG/SEVIRI, and Himawari-8/AHI with land earthquakes between 2010 and 2021

Every year, earthquakes cause numerous casualties and billions of dollars in economic damages, and so far, it is impossible to predict them. Many researchers have studied the land surface temperature (LST) anomalies as promising potential earthquake precursors. In this work, more than 30,000 land earthquakes with a Magnitude (Mw) larger than 4 have been studied from 2010 to 2021. Global LST nighttime (0–6 am) data from Meteosat Second Generation (MSG), Himawari-8, and the Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite (GOES) satellites have been used to evaluate the LST anomalies in the zones affected by earthquakes with spatial resolutions of 1, 2, and 4 km, respectively. The time series moving standard deviation (STD) and Interquartile (IQT) have been used to estimate the LST anomalies. The Confusion Matrix (CM), the receiver operating curve (ROC), and some other figures of merit are computed to assess the goodness of positive LST anomalies and detection thresholds as potential proxies of earthquake occurrence. A positive LST anomaly is typically observed a few days [1–7 d] before the earthquake’s occurrence, followed by a negative LST anomaly afterwards [1–3 d].

Parameterizing spectral surface reflectance relationships for the Dark Target aerosol algorithm applied to a geostationary imager

Abstract. Originally developed for the moderate resolution imaging spectroradiometer (MODIS) in polar, sun-synchronous low earth orbit (LEO), the Dark Target (DT) aerosol retrieval algorithm relies on the assumption of a surface reflectance parameterization (SRP) over land surfaces. Specifically for vegetated and dark-soiled surfaces, values of surface reflectance in blue and red visible-wavelength bands are assumed to be nearly linearly related to each other and to the value in a shortwave infrared (SWIR) wavelength band. This SRP also includes dependencies on scattering angle and a normalized difference vegetation index computed from two SWIR bands (NDVISWIR). As the DT retrieval algorithm is being ported to new sensors to continue and expand the aerosol data record, we assess whether the MODIS-assumed SRP can be used for these sensors. Here, we specifically assess SRP for the Advanced Baseline Imager (ABI) aboard the Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite (GOES)-16/East (ABIE). First, we find that using MODIS-based SRP leads to higher biases and artificial diurnal signatures in aerosol optical depth (AOD) retrievals from ABIE. The primary reason appears to be that the geostationary orbit (GEO) encounters an entirely different set of observation geometry than does LEO, primarily with regard to solar angles coupled with fixed-view angles. Therefore, we have developed a new SRP for GEO that draws the angular shape of the surface bidirectional reflectance. We also introduce modifications to the parameterization of both red–SWIR and blue–red spectral relationships to include additional information. The revised red–SWIR SRP includes the solar zenith angle, NDVISWIR, and land-type percentage from an ancillary database. The blue–red SRP adds dependencies on the scattering angle and NDVISWIR. The new SRPs improve the AOD retrieval of ABIE in terms of overall less bias and mitigation of the overestimation around local noon. The average bias of the DT AOD compared to the Aerosol Robotic Network (AERONET) AOD shows a reduction from 0.08 to 0.03, while the bias of local solar noon decreases from 0.12 to 0.03. The agreement between the DT and AERONET AOD is established through a regression slope of 1.06 and a y intercept of 0.01 with a correlation coefficient of 0.74. By using the new SRP, the percentage of data falling within the expected error range (±0.05 % + 15 %) is notably increased from 54 % to 78 %.

Assessment of U.S. Urban Surface Temperature Using GOES-16 and GOES-17 Data: Urban Heat Island and Temperature Inequality

Abstract This study utilizes hourly land surface temperature (LST) data from the Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite (GOES) to analyze the seasonal and diurnal characteristics of surface urban heat island intensity (SUHII) across 120 largest U.S. cities and their surroundings. Distinct patterns emerge in the classification of seasonal daytime SUHII and nighttime SUHII. Specifically, the enhanced vegetation index (EVI) and albedo (ALB) play pivotal roles in influencing these temperature variations. The diurnal cycle of SUHII further reveals different trends, suggesting that climate conditions, urban and nonurban land covers, and anthropogenic activities during nighttime hours affect SUHII peaks. Exploring intracity LST dynamics, the study reveals a significant correlation between urban intensity (UI) and LST, with LST rising as UI increases. Notably, populations identified as more vulnerable by the social vulnerability index (SVI) are found in high UI regions. This results in discernible LST inequality, where the more vulnerable communities are under higher LST conditions, possibly leading to higher heat exposure. This comprehensive study accentuates the significance of tailoring city-specific climate change mitigation strategies, illuminating LST variations and their intertwined societal implications.

A stepwise unmixing model to address the scale gap issue present in downscaling of geostationary meteorological satellite surface temperature images

Land surface temperature (LST) is a critical parameter that drives the response of a variety of ecosystems to environmental and climatic changes. The geostationary satellite brings unique opportunities to monitor the LST at a hemispheric scale with temporal resolutions of up to 5 min. However, the ultra-coarse spatial resolutions ranging from 2 km to 5 km limit its application at local spatial scales. Downscaling the geostationary satellite LST image with the high-resolution low-Earth-orbit satellite images is a cost-effective way to circumvent this dilemma. Yet, the big gap between the observation scales of these satellite data poses a challenge for accurate downscaling. To address this problem, we proposed a stepwise temperature unmixing (TUM) model called ‘UnmixGO’, which downscales hourly LST images of Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellites (GOES-R) from 2 km to 100 m resolution. The spatially adaptive endmembers and the constrained solution space of the TUM model keep the errors in downscaled LSTs from being over-amplified in the stepwise data treatment. We validated the algorithm in six experimental areas and at five flux tower sites across the contiguous United States, revealing that UnmixGO outperformed conventional methods in accuracy by 0.49 K and 1.11 K on average for downscaling the simulated and real GOES-R LST images, respectively. Furthermore, the technical framework employed by UnmixGO is compatible with multi-source satellite images, enhancing the added value of our study in a future where various remote sensing data is increasingly accessible.

Distribution of Seed Electron Phase Space Density Minima in Earth's Radiation Belts

AbstractWe conducted a statistical analysis of local phase space density (PSD) minima across a wide energy range (∼20 keVs to ∼10 MeV), using observations from the Van Allen Probes and the Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite. We identified deepening minima in PSD profiles of multi‐MeV (∼5% occurrence) and of “seed” electrons (up to 15% occurrence, corresponding to ∼70–100 s keV) and compared their distribution with a 3D diffusion model using the Versatile Electron Radiation Belts (VERB) code. The comparison of the observed and modeled distributions suggests that the PSD minima of seed electrons are likely associated with hiss waves and the corresponding L‐shell dependent electron lifetimes. However, the observed distribution was not fully reproduced by the model, potentially indicating other fast loss mechanisms of seed electrons.

Systematically tracking the hourly progression of large wildfires using GOES satellite observations

Abstract. In the western United States, prolonged drought, a warming climate, and historical fuel buildup have contributed to larger and more intense wildfires as well as to longer fire seasons. As these costly wildfires become more common, new tools and methods are essential for improving our understanding of the evolution of fires and how extreme weather conditions, including heat waves, windstorms, droughts, and varying levels of active-fire suppression, influence fire spread. Here, we develop the Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellites (GOES)-Observed Fire Event Representation (GOFER) algorithm to derive the hourly fire progression of large wildfires and create a product of hourly fire perimeters, active-fire lines, and fire spread rates. Using GOES-East and GOES-West geostationary satellite detections of active fires, we test the GOFER algorithm on 28 large wildfires in California from 2019 to 2021. The GOFER algorithm includes parameter optimizations for defining the burned-to-unburned boundary and correcting for the parallax effect from elevated terrain. We evaluate GOFER perimeters using 12 h data from the Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite (VIIRS)-derived Fire Event Data Suite (FEDS) and final fire perimeters from the California's Fire and Resource Assessment Program (FRAP). Although the GOES imagery used to derive GOFER has a coarser resolution (2 km at the Equator), the final fire perimeters from GOFER correspond reasonably well to those obtained from FRAP, with a mean Intersection-over-Union (IoU) of 0.77, in comparison to 0.83 between FEDS and FRAP; the IoU indicates the area of overlap over the area of the union relative to the reference perimeters, in which 0 is no agreement and 1 is perfect agreement. GOFER fills a key temporal gap present in other fire tracking products that rely on low-Earth-orbit imagery, where perimeters are available at intervals of 12 h or longer or at ad hoc intervals from aircraft overflights. This is particularly relevant when a fire spreads rapidly, such as at maximum hourly spread rates of over 5 km h−1. Our GOFER algorithm for deriving the hourly fire progression using GOES can be applied to large wildfires across North and South America and reveals considerable variability in the rates of fire spread on diurnal timescales. The resulting GOFER product has a broad set of potential applications, including the development of predictive models for fire spread and the improvement of atmospheric transport models for surface smoke estimates. The resulting GOFER product has a broad set of potential applications, including the development of predictive models for fire spread and the improvement of atmospheric transport models for surface smoke estimates (https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.8327264, Liu et al., 2023).

Uncovering the heterogeneity of a solar flare mechanism with mixture models

The physics of solar flares occurring on the Sun is highly complex and far from fully understood. However, observations show that solar eruptions are associated with the intense kilogauss fields of active regions, where free energies are stored with field-aligned electric currents. With the advent of high-quality data sources such as the Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellites (GOES) and Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO)/Helioseismic and Magnetic Imager (HMI), recent works on solar flare forecasting have been focusing on data-driven methods. In particular, black box machine learning and deep learning models are increasingly being adopted in which underlying data structures are not modeled explicitly. If the active regions indeed follow the same laws of physics, similar patterns should be shared among them, reflected by the observations. Yet, these black box models currently used in the literature do not explicitly characterize the heterogeneous nature of the solar flare data within and between active regions. In this paper, we propose two finite mixture models designed to capture the heterogeneous patterns of active regions and their associated solar flare events. With extensive numerical studies, we demonstrate the usefulness of our proposed method for both resolving the sample imbalance issue and modeling the heterogeneity for rare energetic solar flare events.

GOES-R land surface products at Western Hemisphere eddy covariance tower locations

The terrestrial carbon cycle varies dynamically on hourly to weekly scales, making it difficult to observe. Geostationary (“weather”) satellites like the Geostationary Environmental Operational Satellite - R Series (GOES-R) deliver near-hemispheric imagery at a ten-minute cadence. The Advanced Baseline Imager (ABI) aboard GOES-R measures visible and near-infrared spectral bands that can be used to estimate land surface properties and carbon dioxide flux. However, GOES-R data are designed for real-time dissemination and are difficult to link with eddy covariance time series of land-atmosphere carbon dioxide exchange. We compiled three-year time series of GOES-R land surface attributes including visible and near-infrared reflectances, land surface temperature (LST), and downwelling shortwave radiation (DSR) at 314 ABI fixed grid pixels containing eddy covariance towers. We demonstrate how to best combine satellite and in-situ datasets and show how ABI attributes useful for ecosystem monitoring vary across space and time. By connecting observation networks that infer rapid changes to the carbon cycle, we can gain a richer understanding of the processes that control it.

Localized Magnetopause Erosion at Geosynchronous Orbit by Reconnection

AbstractThis study presents observations of magnetopause reconnection and erosion at geosynchronous orbit, utilizing in situ satellite measurements and remote sensing ground‐based instruments. During the main phase of a geomagnetic storm, Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellites (GOES) 15 was on the dawnside of the dayside magnetopause (10.6 MLT) and observed significant magnetopause erosion, while GOES 13, observing duskside (14.6 MLT), remained within the magnetosphere. Combined observations from the THEMIS satellites and Super Dual Auroral Radar Network radars verified that magnetopause erosion was primarily caused by reconnection. While various factors may contribute to asymmetric erosion, the observations suggest that the weak reconnection rate on the duskside can play a role in the formation of asymmetric magnetopause shape. This discrepancy in reconnection rate is associated with the presence of cold dense plasma on the duskside of the magnetosphere, which limits the reconnection rate by mass loading, resulting in more efficient magnetopause erosion on the dawnside.

A Compact THz Photometer for Solar Flare Burst Studies from Space

Recent solar flare observations reveal the presence of THz components having a few orders of magnitude higher amplitude than the Radio Frequency (RF) and microwave radiations in the solar flare spectrum. This feature makes it remarkably beneficial for the detection of solar flares of low magnitudes such as Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite (GOES) Class C, and M flares. Hence, space agencies including National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) and European Space Agency (ESA) are gearing up with THz instruments for solar flare observations. In line with this, Laboratory for Electro-Optics Systems (LEOS) has completed the development of a photometer that operates in continuum THz band, from 1.5 to 15 THz. The entire electro-opto-mechanical design was carried out to realize a compact, light-weight and power-efficient photometer to meet the size, mass and power constraints posed by inherent resource limitations of experimental satellite platforms such as Nanosatellite, Microsatellite and Polar Satellite Launch Vehicle’s 4th Stage Orbital Platform (PS4-OP). A Cassegrain optical configuration was designed to collect the sun radiation with an aperture effective area of 0.0027 m2 with ceramic low pass filters and resonant mesh filter for selective perception of THz radiation, rejecting the huge background of visible and Near Infrared (NIR) with a spectral selectivity of 107:1. Sensitivity of the Photometer was estimated to be 41.5 K/mV in 1.5 to 15 THz band by calibration using a blackbody radiation source. The radiometric resolution of the payload is 125 Solar Flux Unit (SFU) (1 SFU=1×10-22 Wm-2Hz-1). The payload was successfully developed and space-qualified for its deployment in Nanosatellite or PS4-OP platform.

Resilience of an Urban Coastal Ecosystem in the Caribbean: A Remote Sensing Approach in Western Puerto Rico

Utilization of remote sensing-derived meteorological data is a valuable alternative for tropical insular territories such as Puerto Rico (PR). The study of ecosystem resilience in insular territories is an underdeveloped area of investigation. Little research has focused on studying how an ecosystem in PR responds to and recovers from unique meteorological events (e.g., hurricanes). This work aims to investigate how an ecosystem in Western Puerto Rico responds to extreme climate events and fluctuations, with a specific focus on evaluating its innate resilience. The Antillean islands in the Caribbean and Atlantic are vulnerable to intense weather phenomena, such as hurricanes. Due to the distinct tropical conditions inherent to this region, and the ongoing urban development of coastal areas, their ecosystems are constantly affected. Key indicators, including gross primary production (GPP), normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), actual evapotranspiration (ET), and land surface temperature (LST), are examined to comprehend the interplay between these factors within the context of the Culebrinas River Watershed (CRW) ecosystem over the past decade during the peak of hurricane season. Data processing and analyses were performed on datasets provided by Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) and Landsat 8–9 OLI TRIS, supplemented by information sourced from Puerto Rico Water and Energy Balance (PRWEB)—a dataset derived from Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite (GOES) data. The findings revealed a complex interrelationship among atmospheric events and anthropogenic activities within the CRW, a region prone to recurrent atmospheric disruptions. NDVI and ET values from 2015 to 2019 showed the ecosystem’s capacity to recover after a prolonged drought period (2015) and Hurricanes Irma and Maria (2017). In 2015, the NDVI average was 0.79; after Hurricanes Irma and Maria in 2017, the NDVI dropped to 0.6, while in 2019, it had already increased to 0.8. Similarly, average ET values went from 3.2339 kg/m2/day in 2017 to 2.6513 kg/m2/day in 2018. Meanwhile, by 2019, the average ET was estimated to be 3.8105 kg/m2/day. Data geoprocessing of LST, NDVI, GPP, and ET, coupled with correlation analyses, revealed positive correlations among ET, NDVI, and GPP. Our results showed that areas with little anthropogenic impact displayed a more rapid and resilient restoration of the ecosystem. The spatial distribution of vegetation and impervious surfaces further highlights that areas closer to mountains have shown higher resilience while urban coastal areas have faced greater challenges in recovering from atmospheric events, thus showing the importance of preserving native vegetation, particularly mangroves, for long-term ecosystem stability. This study contributes to a deeper understanding of the dynamic interactions within urban coastal ecosystems in insular territories, emphasizing their resilience in the context of both natural atmospheric events and human activity. The insights gained from this research offer valuable guidance for managing and safeguarding ecosystems in similar regions characterized by their susceptibility to extreme weather phenomena.