Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite Research Articles

Precise and Accurate Short-term Forecasting of Solar Energetic Particle Events with Multivariate Time-series Classifiers

Solar energetic particle (SEP) events are one of the most crucial aspects of space weather that require continuous monitoring and forecasting using robust methods. We demonstrate a proof of concept of using a data-driven supervised classification framework on a multivariate time-series data set covering solar cycles 22, 23, and 24. We implement ensemble modeling that merges the results from three proton channels (E ≥ 10 MeV, 50 MeV, and 100 MeV) and the long-band X-ray flux (1–8 Å) channel from the Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite missions. Our task is binary classification, such that the aim of the model is to distinguish strong SEP events from nonevents. Here, strong SEP events are those crossing the Space Weather Prediction Center’s “S1” threshold of solar radiation storm and proton fluxes below that threshold are weak SEP events. In addition, we consider periods of nonoccurrence of SEPs following a flare with magnitudes ≥C6.0 to maintain a natural imbalance of sample distribution. In our data set, there are 244 strong SEP events comprising the positive class. There are 189 weak events and 2460 “SEP-quiet” periods for the negative class. We experiment with summary statistic, one-nearest neighbor, and supervised time-series forest (STSF) classifiers and compare their performance to validate our methods for prediction windows from 5 minutes up to 60 minutes. We find the STSF model to perform better under all circumstances. For an optimal classification threshold of ≈0.3 and a 60 minutes prediction window, we obtain a true skill statistic TSS = 0.850, Heidke skill score HSS = 0.878, and Gilbert skill score GSS = 0.783.

Retrieval of boundary layer precipitable water from GOES ABI using machine learning techniques

Abstract Low-level moisture is an important ingredient for forecasting severe storms, especially over the Great Plains where severe storms often develop along the dryline. Although ground-based observation systems such as lidar or radiosondes on weather balloons provide accurate information on low-level moisture, data are provided at limited locations, and the low temporal resolution of radiosondes makes it difficult to track a rapidly developing dryline. Geostationary satellites provide high spatial and temporal observation, but the channels of current geostationary satellites are mostly sensitive to water vapor at mid to upper levels. However, the split window difference (SWD) between the “clean” window channel (10.3 μm) and the “dirty” window channel (12.3 μm) is commonly used for estimating low-level water vapor. However, this estimation is complicated by surface temperature contributions, dependence on the lapse rate, and nonlinear relationships between SWD and moisture. This study applies machine learning techniques to infer boundary layer precipitable water (BLPW) from Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite (GOES) Advanced Baseline Imager (ABI) data. Since there are few observations that cover wide regions for training convolutional neural networks, especially for the atmosphere above the surface, High-Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR) model outputs are used as the truth for training. Statistical results show that using ABI channel 13, 14, and 15 brightness temperatures, skin temperature, solar zenith angle, and GOES total precipitable water product as additional inputs show the lowest MSE. Case study results show that the model developed in this study is good at capturing strong moisture gradients and depicting a dryline.

First Detections of Ionospheric Plasma Density Irregularities from GOES Geostationary GPS Observations during Geomagnetic Storms

In this study, we present the first results of detecting ionospheric irregularities using non-typical GPS observations recorded onboard the Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellites (GOES) mission operating at ~35,800 km altitude. Sitting above the GPS constellation, GOES can track GPS signals only from GPS transmitters on the opposite side of the Earth in a rather unique geometry. Although GPS receivers onboard GOES are primarily designed for navigation and were not configured for ionospheric soundings, these GPS measurements along links that traverse the Earth’s ionosphere can be used to retrieve information about ionospheric electron density. Using the radio occultation (RO) technique applied to GPS measurements from the GOES–16, we analyzed variations in the ionospheric total electron content (TEC) on the links between the GPS transmitter and geostationary GOES GPS receiver. For case-studies of major geomagnetic storms that occurred in September 2017 and August 2018, we detected and analyzed the signatures of storm-induced ionospheric irregularities in novel and promising geostationary GOES GPS observations. We demonstrated that the presence of ionospheric irregularities near the GOES GPS RO sounding field of view during geomagnetic disturbances was confirmed by ground-based GNSS observations. The use of RO observations from geostationary orbit provides new opportunities for monitoring ionospheric irregularities and ionospheric density.

Time Series of Magnetic Field Parameters of Merged MDI and HMI Space-weather Active Region Patches as Potential Tool for Solar Flare Forecasting

Solar flare prediction studies have been recently conducted with the use of Space-Weather MDI (Michelson Doppler Imager on board Solar and Heliospheric Observatory) Active Region Patches (SMARPs) and Space-Weather HMI (Helioseismic and Magnetic Imager on board Solar Dynamics Observatory) Active Region Patches (SHARPs), which are two currently available data products containing magnetic field characteristics of solar active regions (ARs). The present work is an effort to combine them into one data product, and perform some initial statistical analyses in order to further expand their application in space-weather forecasting. The combined data are derived by filtering, rescaling, and merging the SMARP and SHARP parameters, which can then be spatially reduced to create uniform multivariate time series. The resulting combined MDI–HMI data set currently spans the period between 1996 April 4 and 2022 December 13, and may be extended to a more recent date. This provides an opportunity to correlate and compare it with other space-weather time series, such as the daily solar flare index or the statistical properties of the soft X-ray flux measured by the Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellites. Time-lagged cross correlation indicates that a relationship may exist, where some magnetic field properties of ARs lead the flare index in time. Applying the rolling-window technique makes it possible to see how this leader–follower dynamic varies with time. Preliminary results indicate that areas of high correlation generally correspond to increased flare activity during the peak solar cycle.

MEMPSEP‐III. A Machine Learning‐Oriented Multivariate Data Set for Forecasting the Occurrence and Properties of Solar Energetic Particle Events Using a Multivariate Ensemble Approach

AbstractWe introduce a new multivariate data set that utilizes multiple spacecraft collecting in‐situ and remote sensing heliospheric measurements shown to be linked to physical processes responsible for generating solar energetic particles (SEPs). Using the Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellites (GOES) flare event list from Solar Cycle (SC) 23 and part of SC 24 (1998–2013), we identify 252 solar events (>C‐class flares) that produce SEPs and 17,542 events that do not. For each identified event, we acquire the local plasma properties at 1 au, such as energetic proton and electron data, upstream solar wind conditions, and the interplanetary magnetic field vector quantities using various instruments onboard GOES and the Advanced Composition Explorer spacecraft. We also collect remote sensing data from instruments onboard the Solar Dynamic Observatory, Solar and Heliospheric Observatory, and the Wind solar radio instrument WAVES. The data set is designed to allow for variations of the inputs and feature sets for machine learning (ML) in heliophysics and has a specific purpose for forecasting the occurrence of SEP events and their subsequent properties. This paper describes a data set created from multiple publicly available observation sources that is validated, cleaned, and carefully curated for our ML pipeline. The data set has been used to drive the newly‐developed Multivariate Ensemble of Models for Probabilistic Forecast of SEPs (MEMPSEP; see MEMPSEP‐I (Chatterjee et al., 2024, https://doi.org/10.1029/2023SW003568) and MEMPSEP‐II (Dayeh et al., 2024, https://doi.org/10.1029/2023SW003697) for accompanying papers).

Evaluation of WRF-Chem air quality forecasts during the AEROMMA and STAQS 2023 field campaigns

ABSTRACT A real-time air quality forecasting system was developed using the Weather Research and Forecasting model coupled with Chemistry (WRF-Chem) to provide support for flight planning activities during the NOAA Atmospheric Emissions and Reactions Observed from Megacities to Marine Areas (AEROMMA) and NASA Synergistic TEMPO Air Quality Science (STAQS) 2023 field campaigns. The forecasting system operated on two separate domains centered on Chicago, IL, and New York City, NY, and provided 72-hour predictions of atmospheric composition, aerosols, and clouds. This study evaluates the Chicago-centered forecasting system’s 1-, 2-, and 3-day ozone (O3) forecast skill for Chiwaukee Prairie, WI, a rural area downwind of Chicago that often experiences high levels of O3 pollution. Comparisons to vertical O3 profiles collected by a Tropospheric Ozone Lidar Network (TOLNet) instrument revealed that forecast skill decreases as forecast lead time increases. When compared to surface measurements, the forecasting system tended to underestimate O3 concentrations on high O3 days and overestimate on low O3 days at Chiwaukee Prairie regardless of forecast lead time. Using July 25, 2023, as a case study, analyses show that the forecasts underestimated peak O3 levels at Chiwaukee Prairie during this regionwide bad air quality day. Wind speed and direction data indicates that this underestimation can partially be attributed to lake breeze simulation errors. Surface fine particulate matter (PM2.5) measurements, Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite-16 (GOES-16) aerosol optical depth (AOD) data, and back trajectories from the NOAA Hybrid Single-Particle Lagrangian Integrated Trajectory (HYSPLIT) model show that transported Canadian wildfire smoke impacted the Lake Michigan region on this day. Errors in the forecasted chemical composition and transport of the smoke plumes also contributed to underpredictions of O3 levels at Chiwaukee Prairie on July 25, 2023. The results of this work help identify improvements that can be made for future iterations of the WRF-Chem forecasting system. Implications: Air quality forecasting is an important tool that can be used to inform the public about upcoming high pollution days so that individuals may plan accordingly to limit their exposure to health-damaging air pollutants. Forecasting also helps scientists make decisions about where to make observations during air quality field campaigns. A variety of observational datasets were used to evaluate the accuracy of an air quality forecasting system that was developed for NOAA and NASA field campaigns that occurred in the summer of 2023. These evaluations inform areas of improvement for future development of this air quality forecasting system.

Novel Comparison of Pyrocumulonimbus Updrafts to Volcanic Eruptions and Supercell Thunderstorms Using Optical Flow Techniques

AbstractConvective dynamics in a supercell thunderstorm, a volcanic eruption, and two pyrocumulonimbus (pyroCb) events are compared by computing cloud‐top divergence (CTD) with an optical flow technique called Deepflow. Visible 0.64‐μm imagery sequences from Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellites (GOES)‐R series Advanced Baseline Imager (ABI) are used as input into the optical flow algorithm. CTD is computed after post‐processing of the retrieved motions. Analysis is performed on specific image times, as well as the full time series of each case. Multiple CTD‐based parameters, such as the maximum and the two‐dimensional area exceeding a specified CTD threshold, are examined along with the optical flow‐retrieved wind speed. CTD is shown to accurately and quantitatively represent the behavior and magnitude of different deep convective phenomena, including distinguishing between convective pulses within each individual event. CTD captures updraft intensification as well as differences in convective activity between two pyroCb events and individual updraft pulses occurring within a single pyroCb event. Finally, the characteristics of high‐altitude smoke plumes injected by two separate pyroCb pulses are linked to CTD using ultraviolet aerosol index and satellite imagery. Optical flow‐derived parameters can therefore be applied to individual pyroCbs in real‐time, with potential to characterize pyroCb smoke source inputs for downstream smoke modeling applications and to facilitate future tools supporting air quality modeling and firefighting efforts.

Providing Fine Temporal and Spatial Resolution Analyses of Airborne Particulate Matter Utilizing Complimentary In Situ IoT Sensor Network and Remote Sensing Approaches

This study aims to provide analyses of the levels of airborne particulate matter (PM) using a two-pronged approach that combines data from in situ Internet of Things (IoT) sensor networks with remotely sensed aerosol optical depth (AOD). Our approach involved setting up a network of custom-designed PM sensors that could be powered by the electrical grid or solar panels. These sensors were strategically placed throughout the densely populated areas of North Texas to collect data on PM levels, weather conditions, and other gases from September 2021 to June 2023. The collected data were then used to create models that predict PM concentrations in different size categories, demonstrating high accuracy with correlation coefficients greater than 0.9. This highlights the importance of collecting hyperlocal data with precise geographic and temporal alignment for PM analysis. Furthermore, we expanded our analysis to a national scale by developing machine learning models that estimate hourly PM 2.5 levels throughout the continental United States. These models used high-resolution data from the Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellites (GOES-16) Aerosol Optical Depth (AOD) dataset, along with meteorological data from the European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasting (ECMWF), AOD reanalysis, and air pollutant information from the MERRA-2 database, covering the period from January 2020 to June 2023. Our models were refined using ground truth data from our IoT sensor network, the OpenAQ network, and the National Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) network, enhancing the accuracy of our remote sensing PM estimates. The findings demonstrate that the combination of AOD data with meteorological analyses and additional datasets can effectively model PM 2.5 concentrations, achieving a significant correlation coefficient of 0.849. The reconstructed PM 2.5 surfaces created in this study are invaluable for monitoring pollution events and performing detailed PM 2.5 analyses. These results were further validated through real-world observations from two in situ MINTS sensors located in Joppa (South Dallas) and Austin, confirming the effectiveness of our comprehensive approach to PM analysis. The US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) recently updated the national standard for PM 2.5 to 9 μg/m 3, a move aimed at significantly reducing air pollution and protecting public health by lowering the allowable concentration of harmful fine particles in the air. Using our analysis approach to reconstruct the fine-time resolution PM 2.5 distribution across the entire United States for our study period, we found that the entire nation encountered PM 2.5 levels that exceeded 9 μg/m 3 for more than 20% of the time of our analysis period, with the eastern United States and California experiencing concentrations exceeding 9 μg/m 3 for over 50% of the time, highlighting the importance of regulatory efforts to maintain annual PM 2.5 concentrations below 9 μg/m 3.

Evolution of Energetic Proton Parallel Pressure Anisotropy at Geosynchronous Altitudes: Potential Role in Triggering Substorm Expansion Phase Onset

AbstractThe sequence of events associated with the triggering of energy release during substorm expansion phase onset is still not well‐understood. Oberhagemann and Mann (2020b, https://doi.org/10.1029/2019gl085271) proposed a new substorm onset mechanism, where the transition toward parallel proton pressure anisotropy during tail stretching in the late growth phase could trigger a pressure anisotropic ballooning instability. Here we examine the evolution of energetic proton parallel pressure anisotropy at geosynchronous altitudes, seeking evidence in support of the proposed substorm onset mechanism. We use the Geostationary Operational Environment Satellite (GOES) proton flux and magnetometer data combined with substorm onset indicators derived from ground‐based magnetometers. Superposed epoch analysis of substorm onset times for 2014 using the isolated substorm list (Ohtani & Gjerloev, 2020, https://doi.org/10.1029/2020ja027902) clearly shows signatures of energetic proton parallel pressure anisotropy immediately before substorm onset, potentially supportive of the Oberhagemann and Mann theory.

Machine learning techniques for estimation of Pc5 geomagnetic pulsations observed at geostationary orbits during solar cycle 23

Pc5 geomagnetic pulsations can accelerate electrons in the radiation belts, which can pose adverse threats to both astronauts and satellites in space. The estimation of Pc5 waves in space is crucial to radiation belt dynamics studies and will help mitigate these challenges. Here, we explore the advantages of the Feed-forward Neural Network (FFNN) and Random Forest (RF) algorithm for effective estimation of Pc5 geomagnetic pulsations observed in space at geostationary orbit during solar cycle 23. The dataset used in this study is the vector magnetic field measurements retrieved from the Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite-10 (GOES-10) and the solar wind parameters: Bz and Vx component of the solar wind in the Geocentric Solar Ecliptic (GSE) coordinate system, proton density, flow pressure, and plasma beta obtained from the OMNI Web database during part of solar cycle 23. Pc5 geomagnetic pulsations were extracted from the toroidal component of the magnetic field time series using a bandpass Butterworth filter. The continuous wavelet transform (CWT) was utilized to study the characteristics of the extracted wave in the time-frequency domain for its validation. The validated Pc5 events were used as the target in the model's development, with the solar wind parameters as the inputs. In addition to the solar wind parameters, we included an attribute of the magnetic field time series as an input variable in the model. The dataset is carefully divided to ensure effective training and testing of the models. Finally, we trained both models using the same inputs and targets and explored their estimation abilities. The model was tested during the maximum, descending, and minimum phases of solar cycle 23. Both the FFNN and RF models have a similar estimation, with average cross-correlation score (R) values of 0.74 and 0.73 and corresponding average root mean squared error (RMSEs) of 0.16 nT and 0.67 nT, respectively. The model was deployed to investigate the response of Pc5 waves during three storm days in each testing year. The machine learning (ML) model outputs showed good coherence with the observed Pc5 waves. To validate the models, we studied the correlation between the estimated Pc5 events with the Kp index, and a good correlation was seen to exist between both events. This validates the good performance of the developed models. This work will aid in the study of radiation belt dynamics and the construction of electron depletion regions in the radiation belt.

Shallow- and deep-convection characteristics in the greater Houston, Texas, area using cell tracking methodology

Abstract. The convective lifecycle, from initiation to maturity and dissipation, is driven by a combination of kinematic, thermodynamic, microphysical, and radiative processes that are strongly coupled and variable in time and space. Weather radars have been traditionally used to provide various convective-cloud characteristics. Here, we analyzed climatological convective-cell radar characteristics to obtain and assess the diurnal cycles of three convective-cell types – shallow, modest deep, and vigorous deep convective cells – that formed in the greater Houston area, using the National Weather Service radar from Houston, Texas, and a multi-cell identification and tracking algorithm. The examined dataset spans 4 years (2018–2021) and covers the warm-season months (June to September) in those years. The analysis showed clear diurnal cycles in cell initiation (CI) consistent with the sea breeze circulation and showed diurnal and normalized lifetime relationships in cell evolution parameters (e.g., maximum reflectivity, echo-top height, Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite-16 (GOES-16) channel 13 brightness temperature, and the height of maximum reflectivity). The cell evolution is well represented by relationships between (1) the height and value of the maximum radar reflectivity, (2) the minimum GOES-16 channel 13 brightness temperature and the maximum vertically integrated liquid, (3) the maximum reflectivity and columnar-average reflectivity, and (4) the echo-top ascent rate and cell lifetime. The relationships presented herein help to identify the cell lifecycle stages such as early shallow convection, vigorous vertical development, anvil development, and convective core dissipation. GOES-16 Aerosol Optical Depth values are also used as a proxy for cell initiation aerosol concentrations to investigate any potential relationships between initiation location and aerosol concentration. Overall, no significant relationships between initiation location and aerosol concentration were found for the three cell types investigated, but there are some minor differences in the pre-CI aerosol optical depth for vigorous deep convective cells.

Thermal infrared shadow-hiding in GOES-R ABI imagery: snow and forest temperature observations from the SnowEx 2020 Grand Mesa field campaign

Abstract. The high temporal resolution of thermal infrared imagery from the Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellites R-series (GOES-R) presents an opportunity to observe mountain snow and forest temperatures over the full diurnal cycle. However, the off-nadir views of these imagers may impact or bias temperature observations, especially when viewing a surface composed of both snow and forests. We used GOES-16 and -17 thermal infrared brightness temperature observations of a flat snow- and forest-covered study site at Grand Mesa, Colorado, USA, to characterize how forest coverage and view angle impact these observations. These two geostationary satellites provided views of the study area from the southeast (134.1° azimuth, 33.5° elevation) and southwest (221.2° azimuth, 35.9° elevation), respectively. As part of the NASA SnowEx field campaign in February 2020, coincident brightness temperature observations from ground-based and airborne IR sensors were collected to compare with those from the geostationary satellites. Observations over the course of 2 cloud-free days spanned the entire study site. The brightness temperature observations from each dataset were compared to find their relative differences and how those differences may have varied over time and/or as a function of varying forest cover across the study area. GOES-16 and -17 brightness temperatures were found to match the diurnal cycle and temperature range within ∼ 1 h and ± 3 K of ground-based observations. GOES-16 and -17 were both biased warmer than nadir-looking airborne IR and ASTER observations. The warm biases were higher at times when the sun–satellite phase angle was near its daily minimum. The phase angle, the angle between the direction of incoming solar illumination and the direction from which the satellite is viewing, reached daily minimums in the morning for GOES-16 and afternoon for GOES-17. In morning observations, warm biases in GOES-16 brightness temperature were greater for pixels that contained more forest coverage. The observations suggest that a “thermal infrared shadow-hiding” effect may be occurring, where the geostationary satellites are preferentially seeing the warmer sunlit sides of trees at different times of day. These biases are important to understand for applications using GOES-R brightness temperatures or derived land surface temperatures (LSTs) over areas with surface roughness features, such as forests, that could exhibit a thermal infrared shadow-hiding effect.

Short-term Classification of Strong Solar Energetic Particle Events Using Multivariate Time-series Classifiers

Solar energetic particle (SEP) events are one of the most crucial aspects of space weather that require continuous monitoring and forecasting. Their prediction depends on various factors, including source eruptions. In the present work, we use the Geostationary Solar Energetic Particle data set covering solar cycles 22, 23, and 24. We develop a framework using time-series-based machine-learning (ML) models with the aim of developing robust short-term forecasts by classifying SEP events. For this purpose, we introduce an ensemble learning approach that merges the results from univariate time series of three proton channels (E ≥10, 50, and 100 MeV) and the long-band X-ray flux (1–8 Å) channel from the Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite missions and analyze their performance. We consider three models, namely, time series forest, supervised time series forest (STSF), and Bag-of-Symbolic Fourier Approximation Symbols. Our study also focuses on understanding and developing confidence in the predictive capabilities of our models. Therefore, we utilize multiple evaluation techniques and metrics. Based on that, we find STSF to perform well in all scenarios. The summary of metrics for the STSF model is as follows: the area under the ROC curve = 0.981, F 1-score = 0.960, true skill statistics = 0.919, Heidke skill score = 0.920, Gilbert skill score = 0.852, and Matthew’s correlation coefficient = 0.920. The Brier score loss of the STSF model is 0.077. This work lays the foundation for building near-real-time short-term SEP event predictions using robust ML methods.

The effects of changes in HITRAN and the water vapor continuum model on infrared radiative transfer calculations and remote sensing applications

This study examines the implications of recent updates to the High Resolution Transmission (HITRAN) database and the MT_CKD water vapor continuum model on infrared radiative transfer calculations and satellite remote sensing applications. Specifically, it assesses the impact of the latest versions of the HITRAN database (i.e. HITRAN2016 and HITRAN2020) and the MT_CKD WV continuum model (i.e. versions 3.2 and 4.1.1) on clear-sky infrared flux calculations and the simulation of satellite infrared channels, specifically those of the Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite (GOES) Advanced Baseline Imager (ABI). The results indicate that updates to the MT_CKD model tend to reduce atmospheric opacity, while updates to the HITRAN database have the opposite effect. The most significant differences noted are attributed to updates in the MT_CKD, leading to an increase in upward flux of 0.13 Wm−2 for the TRO and a decrease in downward flux of 0.28 Wm−2 for the MLS profile. However, these impacts are not uniform across the spectrum, atmospheric height, or among different atmospheric profiles. Notably, changes in the WV continuum model have significant effects in the far-infrared region. The updates in HITRAN exhibit pronounced differences associated with changes in the spectroscopic parameters of H2O, CO2 and O3. The results of GOES’ ABI channels indicate that changes in HITRAN lead to an average brightness temperature decrease of 0.3 K for channel 12, which exceeds the channel’s sensitivity. This research underscores the importance of continuous updates and evaluations of spectroscopic databases and radiative transfer models to improve the accuracy of atmospheric remote sensing data.

Intersatellite Comparisons of GOES Magnetic Field Measurements

AbstractGOES‐16 and GOES‐17 are the first of NOAA's Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite (GOES)‐R series of satellites. Each GOES‐R satellite has a magnetometer mounted on the end (outboard) and one part‐way down a long boom (inboard). This paper demonstrates the relative accuracy and stability of the measurements on a daily and long‐term basis. The GOES‐16 and GOES‐17 magnetic field observations from 2017 to 2020 have been compared to simultaneous magnetic field observations from each other and from the previous GOES‐NOP series satellites (GOES‐13, GOES‐14 and GOES‐15). These comparisons provide assessments of relative accuracy and stability. We use a field model to facilitate the inter‐satellite comparisons at different longitudes. GOES‐16 inboard and outboard magnetometers data suffer daily variations which cannot be explained by natural phenomena. Long‐term‐averaged GOES‐16 outboard (OB) data has daily variations of ±3 nT from average values with one‐sigma uncertainty of ±1.5 nT. Long‐term averaged GOES‐17OB magnetometer data have minimal daily variations. Daily average of the difference between the GOES‐16 outboard or GOES‐17 outboard measurements and the measurements made by another GOES satellite are computed. The long‐term averaged results show the GOES‐16OB and GOES‐17OB measurements have long‐term stability (±2 nT or less) and match measurements from magnetometers on other GOES within limits stated herein. The GOES‐17OB operational offset (zero field value) was refined using the GOES‐17 satellite rotated 180° about the Earth pointing axis (known as a yaw flip).

Association of land surface temperature anomalies from GOES/ABI, MSG/SEVIRI, and Himawari-8/AHI with land earthquakes between 2010 and 2021

Every year, earthquakes cause numerous casualties and billions of dollars in economic damages, and so far, it is impossible to predict them. Many researchers have studied the land surface temperature (LST) anomalies as promising potential earthquake precursors. In this work, more than 30,000 land earthquakes with a Magnitude (Mw) larger than 4 have been studied from 2010 to 2021. Global LST nighttime (0–6 am) data from Meteosat Second Generation (MSG), Himawari-8, and the Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite (GOES) satellites have been used to evaluate the LST anomalies in the zones affected by earthquakes with spatial resolutions of 1, 2, and 4 km, respectively. The time series moving standard deviation (STD) and Interquartile (IQT) have been used to estimate the LST anomalies. The Confusion Matrix (CM), the receiver operating curve (ROC), and some other figures of merit are computed to assess the goodness of positive LST anomalies and detection thresholds as potential proxies of earthquake occurrence. A positive LST anomaly is typically observed a few days [1–7 d] before the earthquake’s occurrence, followed by a negative LST anomaly afterwards [1–3 d].

Parameterizing spectral surface reflectance relationships for the Dark Target aerosol algorithm applied to a geostationary imager

Abstract. Originally developed for the moderate resolution imaging spectroradiometer (MODIS) in polar, sun-synchronous low earth orbit (LEO), the Dark Target (DT) aerosol retrieval algorithm relies on the assumption of a surface reflectance parameterization (SRP) over land surfaces. Specifically for vegetated and dark-soiled surfaces, values of surface reflectance in blue and red visible-wavelength bands are assumed to be nearly linearly related to each other and to the value in a shortwave infrared (SWIR) wavelength band. This SRP also includes dependencies on scattering angle and a normalized difference vegetation index computed from two SWIR bands (NDVISWIR). As the DT retrieval algorithm is being ported to new sensors to continue and expand the aerosol data record, we assess whether the MODIS-assumed SRP can be used for these sensors. Here, we specifically assess SRP for the Advanced Baseline Imager (ABI) aboard the Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite (GOES)-16/East (ABIE). First, we find that using MODIS-based SRP leads to higher biases and artificial diurnal signatures in aerosol optical depth (AOD) retrievals from ABIE. The primary reason appears to be that the geostationary orbit (GEO) encounters an entirely different set of observation geometry than does LEO, primarily with regard to solar angles coupled with fixed-view angles. Therefore, we have developed a new SRP for GEO that draws the angular shape of the surface bidirectional reflectance. We also introduce modifications to the parameterization of both red–SWIR and blue–red spectral relationships to include additional information. The revised red–SWIR SRP includes the solar zenith angle, NDVISWIR, and land-type percentage from an ancillary database. The blue–red SRP adds dependencies on the scattering angle and NDVISWIR. The new SRPs improve the AOD retrieval of ABIE in terms of overall less bias and mitigation of the overestimation around local noon. The average bias of the DT AOD compared to the Aerosol Robotic Network (AERONET) AOD shows a reduction from 0.08 to 0.03, while the bias of local solar noon decreases from 0.12 to 0.03. The agreement between the DT and AERONET AOD is established through a regression slope of 1.06 and a y intercept of 0.01 with a correlation coefficient of 0.74. By using the new SRP, the percentage of data falling within the expected error range (±0.05 % + 15 %) is notably increased from 54 % to 78 %.

Assessment of U.S. Urban Surface Temperature Using GOES-16 and GOES-17 Data: Urban Heat Island and Temperature Inequality

Abstract This study utilizes hourly land surface temperature (LST) data from the Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite (GOES) to analyze the seasonal and diurnal characteristics of surface urban heat island intensity (SUHII) across 120 largest U.S. cities and their surroundings. Distinct patterns emerge in the classification of seasonal daytime SUHII and nighttime SUHII. Specifically, the enhanced vegetation index (EVI) and albedo (ALB) play pivotal roles in influencing these temperature variations. The diurnal cycle of SUHII further reveals different trends, suggesting that climate conditions, urban and nonurban land covers, and anthropogenic activities during nighttime hours affect SUHII peaks. Exploring intracity LST dynamics, the study reveals a significant correlation between urban intensity (UI) and LST, with LST rising as UI increases. Notably, populations identified as more vulnerable by the social vulnerability index (SVI) are found in high UI regions. This results in discernible LST inequality, where the more vulnerable communities are under higher LST conditions, possibly leading to higher heat exposure. This comprehensive study accentuates the significance of tailoring city-specific climate change mitigation strategies, illuminating LST variations and their intertwined societal implications.

A stepwise unmixing model to address the scale gap issue present in downscaling of geostationary meteorological satellite surface temperature images

Land surface temperature (LST) is a critical parameter that drives the response of a variety of ecosystems to environmental and climatic changes. The geostationary satellite brings unique opportunities to monitor the LST at a hemispheric scale with temporal resolutions of up to 5 min. However, the ultra-coarse spatial resolutions ranging from 2 km to 5 km limit its application at local spatial scales. Downscaling the geostationary satellite LST image with the high-resolution low-Earth-orbit satellite images is a cost-effective way to circumvent this dilemma. Yet, the big gap between the observation scales of these satellite data poses a challenge for accurate downscaling. To address this problem, we proposed a stepwise temperature unmixing (TUM) model called ‘UnmixGO’, which downscales hourly LST images of Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellites (GOES-R) from 2 km to 100 m resolution. The spatially adaptive endmembers and the constrained solution space of the TUM model keep the errors in downscaled LSTs from being over-amplified in the stepwise data treatment. We validated the algorithm in six experimental areas and at five flux tower sites across the contiguous United States, revealing that UnmixGO outperformed conventional methods in accuracy by 0.49 K and 1.11 K on average for downscaling the simulated and real GOES-R LST images, respectively. Furthermore, the technical framework employed by UnmixGO is compatible with multi-source satellite images, enhancing the added value of our study in a future where various remote sensing data is increasingly accessible.

Distribution of Seed Electron Phase Space Density Minima in Earth's Radiation Belts

AbstractWe conducted a statistical analysis of local phase space density (PSD) minima across a wide energy range (∼20 keVs to ∼10 MeV), using observations from the Van Allen Probes and the Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite. We identified deepening minima in PSD profiles of multi‐MeV (∼5% occurrence) and of “seed” electrons (up to 15% occurrence, corresponding to ∼70–100 s keV) and compared their distribution with a 3D diffusion model using the Versatile Electron Radiation Belts (VERB) code. The comparison of the observed and modeled distributions suggests that the PSD minima of seed electrons are likely associated with hiss waves and the corresponding L‐shell dependent electron lifetimes. However, the observed distribution was not fully reproduced by the model, potentially indicating other fast loss mechanisms of seed electrons.