Geopolitical Picture Research Articles

Geopolitical Aspects of Demographic Processes: Development of Scientific Ideas of L. L. Rybakovsky

Demographic processes play a key role in the formation of the geopolitical picture of the world. Population size, its age structure, growth rates and migration flows have a significant impact on the economic power of states, their military potential and their ability to project power in the international arena. This article examines contemporary and historical views on the significance of demographic factors in the geopolitical competition of countries and the measurement of a state's national power. The study covers both contemporary and historical aspects of the issue. The paper provides a systematic review of the evolution of scientific views on the significance of demographic factors in the geopolitical context. Particular attention is paid to modern methodological approaches to measuring the national power of a state considering demographic indicators. The article offers a critical analysis of existing models for assessing geopolitical influence based on demographic factors and considers their applicability in the context of global demographic transformations. The study also addresses topical issues of the impact of demographic trends on the geopolitical strategies of states in the 21st century, including the problems of population aging, migration processes and demographic imbalances between developed and developing countries. Special attention is paid to the analysis of geopolitical aspects of demographic processes in the works of the outstanding Russian demographer L.L.Rybakovsky. The paper considers the key concepts of the scientist, including demographic security, the geopolitical significance of migration processes, the relationship between demography and spatial development of Russia, as well as the role of demographic policy as an instrument of geopolitical influence.

How the Russian-Ukrainian war changed the geopolitical picture of the world

For centuries, russia was the country that was showing its power in the international political system. Firstly, the emergence of the Soviet Union and 15 countries united under one roof, and then its dissolution in 1991 made russia a more aggressive power that the international community witnessed these years. This was mainly against the post-Soviet Space, as russia till today, thinks that post-Soviet countries are and should be under the influence of russia. That's the main reason why Russia has aggressive foreign policy towards its neighboring countries, especially Georgia and Ukraine. The wars against Ukraine and Georgia show how huge a threat can be coming from the imperialist neighbor state. Here, three main years of wars are outlined: 2008, 2014, and the year of 2022, when Russia started a new military occupation against Ukraine. This aggressive foreign policy dimension is not only a threat for only post-Soviet space but to international security as well. Russia’s internal and external policy dimensions have always been a subject of international world order, as its steps always had some implications for both regional and international political systems. This research will discuss what are the main implications of military occupations conducted by russia in the 21st century.

Нарушение международного права в контексте попыток сохранения глобального доминирования

The Ukrainian conflict has triggered serious changes in the systems of strategic security, political and economic world order. Serious changes are taking place in the geopolitical picture of the world. The emergence of a polycentric world is a fundamentally new system of world order, the idea of which is extremely painfully perceived by Western countries, accustomed to consider themselves the center of human civilization since at least the colonial era. It is now obvious that many countries of the "global South", having recovered from the consequences of the colonial era in several decades, want to act in the international arena in their own, and not in Western national interests, based solely on international law and the UN Charter.

The Lithium Boom: Lithium Sources and Prospects for the Russian Lithium Industry

The explosive development of renewable energy in recent years is reshaping the geopolitical picture of the world. Solar panels and wind turbines have become the symbol of the new energy transition, while lithium-ion batteries have become its basis and the driver of development. It was lithium-ion batteries that made it possible to overcome the main problem of renewable energy – inconstancy and uncontrollability. The article highlights the lithium problem, the reasons for the volatility of lithium prices, the main sources of lithium and the difficulties of its production. In addition, the prospects of development of lithium industry in Russia and current domestic developments in lithium mining technology are considered.

THE LITHIUM BOOM: LITHIUM SOURCES AND PROSPECTS FOR THE RUSSIAN LITHIUM INDUSTRY

The explosive development of renewable energy in recent years is reshaping the geopolitical picture of the world. Solar panels and wind turbines have become the symbol of the new energy transition, while lithium-ion batteries have become its basis and the driver of development. It was lithium-ion batteries that made it possible to overcome the main problem of renewable energy - inconstancy and uncontrollability. The article highlights the lithium problem, the reasons for the volatility of lithium prices, the main sources of lithium and the difficulties of its production. In addition, the prospects of development of lithium industry in Russia and current domestic developments in lithium mining technology are considered

Challenges of implementing the EU’s economic initiatives for the Global South

The topic of the study related to the implementation of economic initiatives is relevant, as the countries of the Global South have developing economies and exciting potential for growth and cooperation. Their economic strengthening could have an impact on the geopolitical picture of the world. The European Union, as one of the largest economic blocs in the world, has interests in supporting and cooperating with these countries to ensure stability and growth. The purpose of this study was to analyse and highlight the importance, complexities, and prospects of implementing economic initiatives that the European Union is implementing in the countries of the Global South. Among the methods used were analytical, statistical, functional methods, as well as methods of system analysis, deduction, synthesis, and comparison. The study highlighted the importance of the European Union’s economic initiatives for the Global South, the significance of cooperation between these regions and the benefits for both sides. The study analysed the main challenges faced by the economic initiatives of the European Union in the context of the Global South, namely, political, economic, social, and cultural factors that complicate the implementation of these initiatives. Potential opportunities for the development of the countries of the Global South as a result of the EU’s economic initiatives have been explored, namely opportunities to attract foreign investment, support economic growth and reduce poverty in these countries. Based on the analysis, particular recommendations were made to improve the implementation of the European Union’s economic initiatives for the countries of the Global South. The practical value lies in the use of the identified results, solving issues related to the implementation of initiatives to bring this process to a new level

THE IRAN-IRAQ CONFLICT, OR THE FIRST PERSIAN GULF WAR: CAUSES, COURSE OF EVENTS AND GEOPOLITICAL CONSEQUENCES AT THE REGIONAL AND GLOBAL LEVELS

The article analyses key factors of conflict in Iran-Iraq long-term relations through the prism of the historical deepening of contradictions between the two nations and states, which found their expression, first of all, in the framework of the territorial conflict regarding the ownership of the water area of the Shatt-el-Arab river, which is strategically important regarding to its geographical location. Some attention is paid to the role of the «Kurdish question» in the development of interstate relations; the religious dimension of the Iran-Iraq conflict is also analyzed in detail, the role of which increased rapidly after the events of the Islamic Revolution in Iran in 1979. The ideological and political strategies of both opponents in the struggle for regional leadership are considered in detail. The main groups of factors causing the Iran-Iraq conflict are separated and briefly characterized. Also, the article carefully describes the military-political grounds and the course of the key stages of the direct armed confrontation and its role in the contemporary Middle Eastern geopolitical picture, including objective reasons that forced various Arab and other actors of different levels to take their own position in the context of the struggle between the two regional "power centers". A change in the nature of the participation of the main international players involved in the conflict is observed, depending on the trends in the arena of military operations.

The Formation of a New Geopolitical Picture of the World Under the Conditions of the Russian-Ukrainian Military Conflict

The article examines the geopolitical orientations of Ukraine in the context of modern challenges, in particular full-scale aggression by Russia. In particular, it is noted. that in the conditions of intensification of modern challenges and in particular military aggression against Ukraine, the geopolitical role of the USA as a world leader has significantly strengthened. Today, the European Union, whose countries also actively help Ukraine, is strengthening its role in the world. However, there are certain contradictions within the European Union. Thus, the countries of Eastern Europe and the Baltic States are very actively helping Ukraine, because they understand that if Ukraine falls under the blows of Russia, then they will be next. But the countries of Western Europe, in particular Germany and France, although they help Ukraine, are in favor of negotiations with Russia, believing that Putin needs to save face, although how can we talk about certain negotiations when the Kremlin leader destroys tens of thousands of the civilian population of Ukraine. Therefore, today even Germany and France are gradually changing their rhetoric, providing Ukraine with all the necessary weapons to defeat the Russian aggressor. As for the countries of the Global South, most of them take a neutral position, trying not to intervene in the conflict. However, international support for Ukraine is gradually increasing, as even the countries of the global South are gradually realizing that it is not worth supporting the aggressor country - Russia, which is gradually turning into a geopolitical pariah.

Sociocultural Integration of Russian Society under the Influence of the Ukrainian Crisis of 2013–2022 and the Identity Policy’s Purposes

The purpose of the article is to establish changes in the degree of integration of Russian society under the influence of the Ukrainian crisis of 2013–2022, to argue proposals for improving the effectiveness of the identity policy of the Russian Federation. The topic was considered at the federal and macro-regional (South of Russia) levels. The research methodology is social constructivism in terms of the spheres of national identity and interethnic relations. Methods of analysis — questionnaire survey, secondary analysis of the results of sociological surveys. The results of the study substantiate a new understanding of the socio-cultural integration of a multi-ethnic society. Changes in the perceptions of Russians during 2000–2021 about the goals of social development and basic values, about the relationship between the state and society, about the desirable goals of the state policy of identity are revealed. These changes are developing in the direction of conservative values, recognition of the independence of Russian society from the West, but paradoxically combined with the preservation of a number of liberal values and orientations. Differences in the state of identity between the age and territorial groups of Russian society are established. In this context, the ideas of the residents of the Republic of Crimea and the city of Sevastopol, as well as the Republics of Donbass about their identity are important, confirming the increased conservatism and Russiancentricity in comparison with the metropolitan megacities of Russia. Ukraine as such is on the periphery of the geopolitical picture of the world of Russians, at the same time, it acts as a contrasting “Other” — a negative example of the consequences of choosing the Western path of development. The 2022 special military operation became a catalyst for value changes that have been brewing in Russia for a long period. Russian Identity Politics Influenced by the Ukrainian Crisis of 2013–2022 becomes more than before, aimed at the formation of the Russian multiethnic nation, the strengthening and integration of the state, the education of a positive perception of history. At the same time, these changes are not sufficiently fixed in the educational, symbolic and informational policy of the Russian Federation, new trends contradict the former course towards the socio-cultural integration of Russia into the globalized world through westernization. The author argues proposals for reforming the state identity policy of the Russian Federation.

An Inequilateral Triangle: Russia−United States−China in a New Geopolitical Environment

The author offers a general comparative overview of the relations of three key countries—Russia, China, and the United States. A new geopolitical picture of the world is presented with three centers of power. The triangle evolves, changing the potential of each of its sides. The three-party relationships are not equipollent. China is building up its economic, nuclear, and political potential, turning into a peer competitor of the United States on the world stage. Russia competes with the United States only in the military-strategic sphere. That is why US foreign policy today is aimed at “double containment” of both Russia and China. At the same time, Washington seeks to rely on its allies both in Europe, strengthening NATO, and in the Indo−Pacific region, pursuing a “latticework” strategy. This promises a long-term confrontation between the US angle and the Chinese and Russian angles of the triangle.

Military-political consequences of the events in Afghanistan: trends and their consideration in diplomatic practice

The events taking place in the world as a result of the stampede of the United States from Afghanistan marked a radical change in the geopolitical and geostrategic picture of the world. As a result of these events, the United States of America in an instant turned into the ghost of a once powerful state, which has provided them with many allies and admirers until now. America came to the Middle East without understanding anything about its peculiarities, having squandered the lives of its own citizens and gigantic resources without any tactics and strategy. As a result, they suffered the greatest strategic blow in Afghanistan since the end of the Cold War. This also means the defeat of US allies, primarily NATO, who realized in mid-August 2021 that the US administration would not coordinate its actions with them on the issue of ending the Afghan mission. Thus, a serious problem for the United States after its strategic defeat in Afghanistan was the destruction of trust in Washington as an alliance partner and, as a result, the undermined prestige of the United States. The published article answers the question of what global consequences can be expected as a result of all this and how the impact of the Afghan catastrophe of the United States will manifest itself in the near and long term.

Влияние природно-ресурсных и геополитических факторов на формирование и развитие железнодорожного транспорта России

The influence of natural resource and geopolitical factors is traced in the formation of the country's transport system, the location of its main highways. It is these factors that determine the structure of the transport system of the country and the regions; they determine the nature and directions of the emerging transport flows and the specifics of the socio-economic development of the subjects of the Russian Federation. In the period of the changing geopolitical picture of the world, transport is also being reoriented, which requires more flexible predictive models of its development for a more efficient, well-coordinated and uninterrupted operation. Monitoring and studying natural resource and geopolitical factors is important and significant for the economic system of the whole country and its infrastructure. The object of the study is railway transport. The subject of the study is his activity. The purpose of the study is to scientifically substantiate the need to take into account the influence of the above factors on the development of railway transport in the medium and long-term periods. The objectives of the study are: to identify the influence of the natural resource factor on the formation and development of railway transport in the historical aspect; to assess the geopolitical factors in the development of transport highways. The methodology and methods of research are based on the application of natural resource, geopolitical approaches. The study uses a retrospective analysis of the cargo turnover of railway transport for 2008-2021 on the railway network. Taking into account the revealed trends, the need to develop a model for regulating the activities of railway transport under the influence of the factors under consideration is scientifically justified

The Geopolitical Context of the Rus’ Raid on Seville

The article offers a possible explanation for the raid of the Rus’ on Seville in 844 and also attempts to compare this event with the embassy of the Rus’ to Constantinople and Ingelheim, and with their raid on Amastris. These events, taken as a part of a complex geopolitical picture of the “long middle” of the 9th century, show the origin and nature of the emerging group of the Rus’ people. This period started with the renewed Muslim onslaught on Europe through the Byzantine holdings in Asia Minor and Italy in the 820s–830s, and finished in the middle of the 860s with the Byzantine victory over the Abbasids. Other important events of this time were the Great Schism; victories of the Byzantine Orthodoxy over Catholicism and heretics in Great Moravia, Bulgaria and Asia Minor; and the first baptism of the Rus’. This geopolitical background was complemented by the collapse of the Carolingian Empire and the beginning of the German Drang nach Osten. During this time, a small group who identified itself as the Rus’ first in 838, came into being. Its main goal was to explore new trade routes to the Muslim world bypassing Khazaria. However, eventually they discovered an opportunity of pillaging Byzantium and its allies in Andalusia. The result of their actions, which were probably coordinated form one center in Southern Denmark, was their acquisition of “homeland” in the North of Eastern Europe: a land that was given its accidentally emerged name “Rus’”.

Areas Of Socio-Geographical Study Of The Covid-19 Pandemic In Russia And The World

The natural and socio-economic characteristics of the territory play a decisive role in the spread of the pandemic of COVID-19. It provoked a restructuring process in practically all fields of the social life. Its main areas were laid before the pandemic, but the changes were sharply accelerated by the pandemic. In analyzing a number of Russian and foreign publications, the authors discuss the main areas and methods of human-geographical study of the development and consequences of the pandemic. The constantly growing flow of publications in this field can be divided into three major parts: studies of the spatial spread of infection on the different stages; analysis of demographic, (geo) political and economic implications of the pandemic, and attempts to forecast the impact of social and technological changes accelerated by it on territorial structures. The authors note in particular that the geopolitical picture of the world with the division of countries into developed and developing, rich and poor, authoritarian and democratic, Eastern and Western, became much less clear. The most obvious geopolitical consequence of the pandemic is the further fragmentation of the political and socio-economic space. Not only state, but often also administrative boundaries have turned into almost insurmountable barriers for people and trade. The COVID crisis has opened new opportunities for a reasonable combination of the concentration of social life in the «archipelago» of large cities and the development of other territories.

Geostrategic interests of turkey and Iran in the Caspian region

The relevance of this article is due to the advantageous geostrategical position of the Republic of Azerbaijan in the Caspian region, which makes it a significant and attractive location for neighbouring states both politically and economically, causing not only partnership relations between the countries but also the probable insecurity of Azerbaijan's territorial integrity. The purpose of this study is to examine and analyze the complex of geostrategic relations in the Caspian region on the example of the relationship of the Republic of Azerbaijan with the Republic of Turkey and the Islamic Republic of Iran. The leading method for the study of this topic is, first of all, a deep and detailed analysis of the geostrategic and geopolitically advantageous position of the Republic of Azerbaijan, as well as the method of comparing its relations with neighbouring states, which makes it possible to imagine as accurately as possible the general geopolitical picture of the Caspian region.

Трансформация духовно-нравственных исканий общества (от премодерна к постмодерну) и ее влияние на государственно-правовые институты

The article analyzes the dynamics of the development of spiritual and moral searches of society in historical retrospect, including identifying current trends and evaluating the transformation of religiosity in the current period under the influence of postmodern ideas. Correlations between changes in fundamental paradigms and changes in the ideological foundations of the functioning of state and legal institutions are revealed. It is determined that each of the four types of society — archaic, traditional, industrial and post-industrial (informational) — has its own specific forms of religiosity that determine the worldview and directly affect the social (state) system. Thus, the early forms of religious beliefs of an archaic society did not create prerequisites for the emergence of a social hierarchy, and, consequently, statehood (which is confirmed by the social practice of preserved archaic societies of our time). The archaic society is gradually replaced by the traditional one, hierarchy, social inequality, Patriarchy appear, political Genesis is carried out, and power is legitimized through religious institutions. It is in traditional societies that polytheism is replaced by monotheism, which promotes (and is used for this purpose as a state ideology) the strengthening of statehood. The state-legal institutions of traditional societies have no alternative but to be sacred. The main form of government of the state is monarchy (theocratic or clerical). The transition to modernity takes place under the slogan of desacralization and rationalization, in the ideological field this is manifested in the formation of “quasi-religions” or secular “religions”: Nazism, communism, liberalism (these ideologies replace God in the public consciousness, Absolute (Ultimate) reality — the ultimate reality, while preserving certain features of the religious: ritual, dogmas, symbolism, meaning-making, mythological, etc.). These ideologies determine the global transformation of the geopolitical picture of the world in the XIX—XX centuries. There is the overthrow of the monarchy (or the transition to parliamentary forms of monarchies), the collapse of empires, the establishment of the Republican form of government as the dominant one, with the choice of the appropriate ideology as the basis for state-legal construction. Spiritual search in modern societies was pushed out of public discourse into the area of personal choice. By the end of the XX — beginning of the XXI century, the West begins processes that can be described as the beginning of the transition from modern to postmodern. The transformation of society’s religiosity is characterized by contradictory trends — the emergence of «hyperreal religions» (parody religions, Internet religions, alternative (non-traditional) religious movements), a return to archaic beliefs (neo-paganism), and the activation of fundamentalism. In the context of globalization and legal integration, these processes directly affect other countries (paradigmally still at the stage of modernity and even pre-modernity), which causes civilizational conflicts and destabilizes international relations. Taking these trends into account, as well as understanding the paradigmatic heterogeneity of both the world as a whole and Russian society, is necessary in the implementation of law-making and management activities, domestic and foreign policy.
 Acknowledgments: The reported study was funded by RFBR, project number 20-011-31235 “Non-traditio­nal religiosity as a form of social activity in the postmo­dern era”.

China’s Artificial Intelligence Innovation: A Top‐Down National Command Approach?

AbstractChina’s open embracing of the age of artificial intelligence (AI) has attracted considerable academic and media attention. Many argue that China has taken advantage of its national approach to contest for AI supremacy and geopolitical dominance. The relevant analyses assume China’s AI plans as being Beijing’s coherent top‐down geopolitically driven national strategy, reflecting Chinese leaders’ global ambitions. This article argues that these views are mistaken. It argues that China’s AI plans are primarily driven by contestation and the struggle for resources among domestic stakeholders who are economically motivated and have little awareness of the bigger geopolitical picture. Instead of a top‐down command approach, China’s national AI plan is an upgrade of existing local AI initiatives to the national level, reflecting a bottom‐up development. This article suggests that the existing analyses vastly exaggerate: (1) Beijing’s capacity to coordinate domestic capital and actors towards a unified, specific strategic objective; and (2) the extent of China’s AI advancement and its geopolitical threat, triggering unnecessary anxiety among China’s near competitors.

ТЯНЬАНЬМЭНЬ 1989: ДЕМОКРАТИЯ, ГРАЖДАНСТВЕННОСТЬ И ПРОТЕСТ В ПРЕДСТАВЛЕНИИ СМИ США

The author examines the materials of the US media in 1989, devoted to finding answers to the question about the type of protests in China. Analysis of the US press reveals a complex and controversial information situation. 1989 saw a gradual increase in the interest of journalists, editors, and politicians to the problem of existence of citizen society and democracy in China. US journalists had come to understanding the new contours of the geopolitical picture; they realized that there are at least two global approaches to the question of restructuring Chinese society and that these approaches directly affect the understanding of the new role of the United States in the world.

ЯПОНО-КИТАЙСКАЯ ВОЙНА И «NEW YORK TIMES»

The authors examine the materials of the American press of 1931 devoted to finding answers to the question of the fault of Japan or China in the conflict. Analysis of the US press reveals a complex and controversial information situation. 1941 was a period of gradual revival of the interest of journalists, editors and politicians in the problem of Sino-Japanesewar. US journalists had come to understanding the new outlines of the geopolitical picture of the world; they had realized that there are at least two global approaches to the issue of the culprits of the conflict (Chinese and Japanese) and that these approaches directly affect the understanding of the new role of the United States in the world.

GREAT MIDDLE EAST AND NORTH AFRICA REGION IN THE MODERN SYSTEM OF INTERNATIONAL SECURITY

The subject of the study is the security space of the countries of the Greater Middle Eastand North Africa and its significance for Ukraine. The aim of the article is to identify the main trends in the geopolitical transformation of the Middle East regional system and to identify conflict issues that destabilize the region and deepen instability. Taking into account these facts, Ukraine will be able to systematically extract foreign economic policy in relation to the consolidated space of the Greater Middle East and North Africa. Methodology (method). General scientific and special methods were used in the research process in order to achieve the goal and solve the outlined tasks: historical and logical, analysis and synthesis, generalization and quantitative comparison, visual (tabular and graphical) (to visualize the results of the study). Results. It is determined that the system of regional international relations is in the conditions of cardinal changes, which leads to their restructuring, creation of a new balance of power and formation of new relations between the states. The structural structure of the Greater Middle East and North Africa region is established and the historical preconditions of its formation are detailed. The main tendencies to the geopolitical transformation of the Middle Eastern regional system are confirmed. Projects of restructuring the political map of the Middle East and the Muslim world and possible consequences for international security are analysed. The growing role of individual countries in the study region in the global economy, which is determined by the presence of significant natural resources, including oil and gas, is confirmed. The main challenges for development and stability in the Middle East have been identified, including local conflicts, the growth of terrorist acts, and ethnic problems. Local conflicts that destabilize the region, as almost all countries have sufficient resources to confront, are analysed. It has been confirmed that the most powerful countries in the region are increasing their military potential to secure their interests. It is determined that military conflicts in the region have a negative impact on the deepening of the deficit of natural resources, which significantly affects the global geopolitical picture of the world. Measures to be taken by Middle Eastern countries to ensure security policy in the region are proposed. The main interests of Ukraine in relations with the countries of the Middle East and North Africa are analysed and recommendations for their implementation are given.