Geopolitical Crises Research Articles

On the causes of occurrence of Islamic Takfiri groups: the example of ISIS

Over the recent years, multiple Muslim countries are involved in geopolitical crises and disputes. The strengthening of Islamic Salafist fundamentalism and extremism, which is a threat to the world, manifests as one of the most discussed and studied problems. Special relevance this question gained after the events known as the “Arab Spring”. Extremist groups that attempted to implement their own administrative model were able to seize the power in a number of countries of Near East and North Africa due to the weakness of political regimes. One of such groups is the prohibited in Russia terrorist organization “The Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant” (ISIS), which emergence was influences by both, internal and external factors. The scientific novelty consists in a comprehensive analysis of various external and internal aspects that contributed to creation of ISIS. The author meticulously examines the extremist ideas based on the Salafist way of thinking, as well as acknowledges the widespread in Saudi Arabia irrationality, economic issues and impact of countries outside the region as the key factors contributing to establishment of “The Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant”. The paper also analyzes the role of financial and logistical support of the United States, presence of regional allies, primarily Saudi Arabia, which are viewed as the external stimuli of the emergence of ISIS.

Environmental and Economic Life Cycle Analysis of Primary Construction Materials Sourcing under Geopolitical Uncertainties: A Case Study of Qatar

Environmental and economic cycles under varying geopolitical uncertainties can lead to unsustainable patterns that significantly and negatively affect the welfare of nations. With the ever-increasing negative environmental and economic impacts, the ability to achieve sustainability is hindered if the implications are not properly assessed in challenging geopolitical crises. The infrequent and fluctuating nature of these challenging geopolitical settings causes disregard and neglect for exploration within this issue. In this study, a comparative life cycle assessment was conducted as a method to evaluate the environmental and economic impacts of construction material flow across country boundaries. Based on the results found from the life cycle assessment, an environmental forecast and sensitivity analysis were established. Considering the State of Qatar as a case study, asphalt and bitumen, cement, limestone, sand, and steel were analyzed from gate-to-gate depending on transportation mode and distances used within both the pre-crisis and post-crisis sub-periods, comparing carbon emissions and costs. The results showed that the mode of transport plays a significant role in terms of carbon dioxide emissions as opposed to distance traveled. However, the increase in distance coupled to the majority shift from land to sea-based transport resulted in an overall increase in carbon emissions and costs post-crisis. In addition, the analysis of the environmental and economic impact assessment using the average CO2 equivalent (CO2-e) per kilogram and the unit price of the five primary construction materials has shown a significant, 70.68% increase in global warming potentials (GWP) after the crisis, coupled with an increase in the overall cost. An assessment of environmental and economic impacts during geopolitical uncertainties allows for the significant ability to realize sustainable measures to greatly reduce economic and environmental degradation.

The evolution of the European Union’s failed approach to Afghanistan

ABSTRACTThis article provides a genealogical account of European actorness in Afghanistan. It argues that European agreement towards facilitating modernisation and development in Afghanistan was initiated with aid and trade, evolving into humanitarianism in the 1990s, and reconstruction and democratisation in the 2000s. The European Union has had a positive impact on Afghanistan, focusing on humanitarianism, but its multilateral and programme level approach to reconstruction and democratisation has failed to meet the EU’s stated objectives. By promoting the flawed “Bonn Model”, the EU is proportionally culpable for failed international attempts to reconstruct Afghanistan; even though the United States has been the primary international actor. Drawing a series of broader lessons, such as tensions between Atlantic solidarity and European integration, and the limitations of the European crisis management, the article demonstrates how European policy has been shaped by crises inside Afghanistan and the larger geopolitical crises these have generated. These have contemporary importance as history suggests that as the US withdraws its commitment to Afghanistan, the EU will have a very significant role in attempting to fill a humanitarian vacuum.

From Buddha Bones to Bo Trees: Nehruvian India, Buddhism, and the poetics of power, 1947–1956

AbstractIn the first decade after Indian independence in 1947, the secular Indian state projected a vision of itself as being guided by universal ethics rooted in the nation's ancient Buddhist past. From the circulation of Buddhist relics in distant lands to the reinvention and incorporation of Buddhist symbols in contemporary state regalia, the government sponsored a wide variety of programmes in the name of world peace, Pan-Asian unity, and enlightened democratic values that promoted Buddhism both within India and across Asia. This more than decades-long effort was entirely the outcome of the political and social visions of India's first prime minister Jawaharlal Nehru and key members of his cabinet. In its most concise formulation, this Nehruvian-style Buddhism consisted of a two-pronged approach, one concerning the uses of Buddhism in the domestic sphere—that is, for domestic consumption by citizens of the new nation—and one concerning the uses of Buddhism as an instrument of foreign policy. At the heart of these projects was the dual effort to integrate a diverse South Asian populace into a wider national consciousness and yield influence among the post-colonial order in Asia. This article details the strategies and ideologies that Nehru and his cabinet employed vis-à-vis Buddhism from the mid-1940s to late 1950s when their Buddhist statecraft began to unravel due to geopolitical crises and the mass conversions of Ambedkarite Dalits. After tracing these developments, the article briefly considers the continued relevance of the Nehruvian engagement with Buddhism as it relates to twenty-first century Indian affairs.

ANALYSIS OF OIL RESERVES, PRODUCTION AND OIL PRICE TRENDS IN 1995, 2005, 2015

According to analysed oil reserves and oil production worldwide during 1995, 2005 and 2015, a global increase in oil re- serves is observed. In 1995, there were 179.1 × 109 m3, in 2005 there were 218.5 × 109 m3 and in 2015 there were 269.9 × 109m3 oil reserves. According to British Petroleum data, oil production is also increasing, but by a smaller ratio. Oil produc- tion in the world in 1995 was 10.8 × 109 m3, in 2005 it was 13.0 × 109 m3, and in 2015 14.6 × 109 m3. Oil price trends between 1980 and 2015 were analysed. Many different causes affect the constant oil price fluctuations, but the most influential are the geopolitical crises of the Middle Eastern countries, as well as a great increase in demand for oil and the expansion of the consumption of wealthy countries such as China, India and Brazil, which was not accompanied by a corresponding increase in supply. Modern political relations are full of conflicts, which greatly affect oil prices, and the best example is the short-term rise in oil prices in 2011, when armed conflicts started in Libya, or disablement of production in countries such as Syria and Yemen, which in 2015 can barely capture any production. By comparing reserves, earnings and oil pricefluctuations, it is apparent that almost every increase in oil production, after the discovery of oil deposits, was later ac- companied by a fall in prices.

Extracting Knowledge from Technical Reports for the Valuation of West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil Futures

This paper proposes and demonstrates an approach for the often-attempted problem of market prediction, framed as classification task. We restrict our study to a widely purchased and well recognized commodity, West Texas Intermediate crude oil, which experiences significant volatility. For this purpose, nine learners using features extracted from monthly International Energy Agency (IEA) reports to predict undervalued, overvalued, and accurate valuation of the oil futures between 2003 and 2015. The often touted “Efficient Market Hypothesis” (EMH) suggests that it is impossible for individual investors to “beat the market” as market and external forces, such as geopolitical crises and natural disasters, are nearly impossible to predict. However, four algorithms were statistically better at the 95% confidence interval than “Zero-Rule” and “Random-Guess” strategies which are expected to pseudo-reflect the EMH. Furthermore, the addition of text features can significantly improve performance compared to only using price history from the oil futures data, challenging the validity of the semi-strong versions of the EMH in the crude oil market.

Chinese–Russian economic relations: developing the infrastructure of a multipolar global political economy?

This article situates Russian–Chinese relations within a wider emerging infrastructure of multipolarity to consider how such relations signal a complex and multifaceted ‘decentering’ of the global political economy beyond American-centered global governance architecture. Russian–Chinese economic cooperation and economic multipolarity have been some time in the making; however, they are demonstrating new institutional, governance, and reciprocal ‘embeddedness.’ The processes by which such embeddedness has occurred provide the context within which geopolitical and geoeconomic crises are mediated, not the reverse. This article traces emerging economic relations between Russia and China by moving beyond abstract and generalized pronouncements of multipolarity to consider the extent to which such multipolarity is realized via contemporary Russian–Chinese economic relations, and how such relations are constitutive of a post-hegemonic global political economy. The increased complexity of Russian–Chinese economic relations—means that any resultant effects on polarity cannot simply be deduced from each state’s strategic preferences regarding polarity.

Beyond the resource curse and pipeline conspiracies: Energy as a social relation in the Middle East

This article identifies problematic tendencies in current analyses of the Middle East’s energy relations. All social relations are frequently seen as determined by resource extraction, use and transfer, contributing to the uniquely instable social relations of the Middle East. Social structures despite being energy rich, are seen as incapable to react to old and new geopolitical crises and the effects of global climate change, adding to a picture of chronic underdevelopment and conflict. This article offers an alternative, more optimistic perspective on the Middle East’s energy relations. Privileging the social over the material, calorific, geological or topographic dimensions of energy relations, it argues that social life developed in relation to its natural resources, matter and energy, but is not singularly determined by it. It proposes to historicise and re-politicise the Middle East’s social energy relations, including its nutritional and geopolitical dimensions. Emphasising their dynamic character, energy and its associated infrastructures are subsequently re-defined into political categories, a field of social contestation and change, rather than a limiting biophysical structure. The concept of Social Energy, thus, transforms nature from a constraining externality into an integral part of social analysis and transformation in the Middle East.

Surprise as the new normal \u2013 implications for energy security

We are living in a world of increasing interconnectedness through digitalisation and globalisation, exacerbating environmental conditions, severe economic challenges, uneven distribution of wealth, and geopolitical crises. The world is a complex system and the rapid change among its sub-systems builds up pressure for any efforts to anticipate change and shape the processes of transformation. Surprise is an intrinsic aspect of change, in particular when it takes place at an accelerating pace with high degrees of volatility, uncertainty, complexity, ambiguity (VUCA) - or within the condition of post-normality as described by Ziauddin Sardar. Emerging technologies such as AI and renewable energy systems add to the complexity of societies, and thus to the world of VUCA and post-normality. In foresight horizon scanning has much focused on the probable or even predictable -surprise-free developments. More emphasis should be paid on systematic anticipation of wild cards and black swans, and on the analysis of weak signals. Foresight should also focus on discontinuities - broader phenomena and developments instead of single events. Energy is a complex issue. Without energy there is no life, neither biological nor economic. Taking into account the huge ecological and social costs of the present energy system, the need for a new emission-free, cost-effective, and democratised energy system is obvious. An energy transformation to reach 100% renewable energy is envisioned in four transformational neo-carbon energy scenarios. Energy is increasingly a societal and even cultural issue - above all a security issue. As regards energy security, various sudden events and surprises could play a major role. New energy systems themselves, with other new technologies, nudge the world into unknown, discontinuous directions. Therefore, we probe the resilience, anti-fragility and discontinuity of these transformational, societal energy scenarios. The results of a futures clinique where the scenarios were tested are presented. Implications of surprises for energy security, as the world increasingly seeks to move towards a renewable energy based society, are explored.

‘You’re a kite dancing in a hurricane, Mr Bond’: The Elemental Encounters of James Bond

This article explores the importance of elemental geographies in the James Bond franchise and how the hero’s encounters with water, air, earth, and fire shape our understanding of him as a character and the missions he completes. On the one hand, Bond is depicted as being “in his element” and his ability to put classical elements to work to his advantage is crucial to shaping the prevailing mood or ‘atmospheres’ to the geopolitical crises and dramas he encounters. On the other hand, Bond villains frequently manipulate, re-engineer, and even poison the elemental as part of their projects to secure geopolitical domination. By securing the elemental, Bond helps to reinforce the dominant Anglo-American security architecture and restrain the potential of the elemental to overwhelm the life he has striven to secure. Keywords: James Bond; classical elements; water; air; fire; earth; geography; materiality; atmospheres.

Addressing travel writers’ role as risk brokers: the case of Jordan

ABSTRACTRecent international events such as Brussels bombing and the terrorist attacks in Paris have stressed the importance of issues related to terrorism, personal safety, and instability on tourism. Jordan, as a major tourism destination in the Middle East, is relatively safe. However, its tourism industry has been negatively impacted by the political instability and the constant occurrence of on-going geopolitical crises in the Middle East region. One of the main strategies to respond to this challenge is to invite western travel writers to experience Jordan and to promote the destination via travel articles. Thus, using Jordan as the case, the purpose of this study was to examine the representation of Jordan as a travel destination within travel media and to discuss travel writers’ roles as risk brokers during unstable times. A qualitative framing analysis was conducted on travel feature articles published in five national newspapers from five countries (US, Canada, UK, New Zealand, and Australia) over a 10-year period. Results of the analysis revealed that Jordan was framed as a typical heritage tourism destination, with natural and cultural resources featured. Findings further revealed that safety emerges as one of the major issues that contemporary travel articles were concerned about. Based on the findings, travel writers’ role as risk brokers was addressed. The article also discussed the importance for tourism policy-makers to emphasize risk management during unstable times.

Geographical explanation of the factors disputed in the Karabakh geopolitical crisis

Geopolitical crises are among the international crises that have geographic nature and root. Therefore, despite international political or economic crises that may have more negative consequences than those of geopolitical ones, no crisis threatens the nations-states’ factors as do geopolitical crises because the specialty of geographic basis is rooted in national and prestigious values. Thus, the compromise about them is quite hard and impossible, and these crises often last so long. In this regard, if a geopolitical crisis, like the case of Karabakh, is rooted in bilateral disputes over geographic factors, including geographic-political, geographic-cultural and geographic-economic factors, it would have special complexities.

Terrorist attack of 15 January 2016 in Ouagadougou: how resilient was Burkina Faso's health system?

In Africa, health systems are often not very responsive. Their resilience is often tested by health or geopolitical crises. The Ebola epidemic, for instance, exposed the fragility of health systems,...

‘Love ye therefore the strangers’: immigration and the criminal law in early modern England

ABSTRACTThis article offers a comprehensive examination of the relationship between foreign residents and the criminal law in early modern England, as well as an investigation of trials ‘de medietate lingue’, trials with half-English and half-foreign juries, in theory and practice. Because England witnessed both a series of foreign migrations and a series of geo-political crises in the years between 1674 and 1750, the article charts patterns of foreign prosecutions across the period in order to place them in their proper historical context. The article concludes that the protections offered by English law to foreign residents were real and significant and that these protections were especially important at points of geo-political stress.

Resilience of Natural Gas Networks during Conflicts, Crises and Disruptions

Human conflict, geopolitical crises, terrorist attacks, and natural disasters can turn large parts of energy distribution networks offline. Europe's current gas supply network is largely dependent on deliveries from Russia and North Africa, creating vulnerabilities to social and political instabilities. During crises, less delivery may mean greater congestion, as the pipeline network is used in ways it has not been designed for. Given the importance of the security of natural gas supply, we develop a model to handle network congestion on various geographical scales. We offer a resilient response strategy to energy shortages and quantify its effectiveness for a variety of relevant scenarios. In essence, Europe's gas supply can be made robust even to major supply disruptions, if a fair distribution strategy is applied.

Crisis and the Development of China’s Southwestern Periphery

For much of the twentieth century, China’s rugged southwest existed as a veritable blank spot on the country’s geological and planning maps. Geo-political crises in the late 1930s and later in the mid-1960s, however, spurred leaders to redirect state investment and attention away from east and central China and toward this isolated periphery. The story of Panzhihua, once a village tucked away into an isolated corner of the southwest but now a steel-producing industrial icon, highlights the transformative power of geo-political crisis in China’s peripheral regions. By examining the activity of geologists and other agents of the state charged with the task of pinpointing regions for state-sponsored development, this article sheds light on the central role that crisis played in driving investment into China’s southwest during the twentieth century.

After the fall: The global financial crisis as a test of corporate social responsibility theories

AbstractIn this paper, we look at the development of the set of core corporate social responsibility (CSR) theories in response to Friedman's ascendancy. We assess the impact of the current economic collapse on theories built on this dialectical framework. Finally, we suggest where we might find new theoretical underpinnings for the next generation of CSR that can meet the challenges not only of the current financial crisis, but the looming ecological and geopolitical crises.

Volatility behavior of oil, industrial commodity and stock markets in a regime-switching environment

This study supplements previous regime-switching studies on WTI crude oil and finds two possible volatility regimes for the strategic commodity prices of Brent oil, WTI oil, copper, gold and silver, and the S&P 500 index, but with varying high-to-low volatility ratios. The dynamic conditional correlations (DCCs) indicate increasing correlations among all the commodities since the 2003 Iraq war but decreasing correlations with the S&P 500 index. The commodities also show different volatility persistence responses to financial and geopolitical crises, while the S&P 500 index responds to both financial and geopolitical crises. Implications are discussed.

The Gulf oil and gas sector: potential and constraints

predominance of oil as the world's main source of energy, coupled with the recent phenomenal growth of the natural gas industry spurred by environmental considerations, ensure that the Gulf's energy sector will continue to play a pivotal role in the global market. With world demand projected to reach unprecedented levels, led by Asian economic powers such as China and India, oil production peaking in key areas and geopolitical crises fuelling greater uncertainty, issues of global supply security have come to the fore. All these factors have led to a steep rise in petroleum prices, filling the coffers of the oil producers but threatening to paralyse the global economy and imposing a heavy burden on the ultimate consumers. In this energy scenario, where does the Gulf oil and gas sector stand? How can it meet its long-term strategic requirements while satisfying the energy needs of the global economy? This is the main focus of The Gulf Oil and Gas Sector in which leading energy experts examine both the possibilities and the problems of the Gulf energy sector in the wider global context. Important energy issues covered include the future prospects of OPEC, the impact of world oil prices on global growth, the strategic objectives of the Gulf energy sector, the influence of markets and technology on regional reserves, the emerging partnerships between national and international oil companies, the imperatives for attracting Gulf energy investment and new developments in gas technology and regional gas trade. Regional case studies outline possible scenarios for the future of Iraqi oil, highlight policy options for Saudi Arabia as a swing producer and focus on the Norwegian experience of economic diversification.

Land und Meer, Land und Luft, Land und Erde: Schmitt und Sloterdijk - mit Husserl gelesen

There are two phases in the philosophy of the 20. and the beginning 21. century, in which not generally ‚the world‘, but actually issues like ‚land and sea‘, ‚land and air‘, ‚land and earth‘ became philosophical references. There are on the one hand the diagnoses of geopolitical crises in the 1950th and there is on the other hand the so-called ‚spatial turn‘ of the cultural sciences and related contemporary philosophy. The article presents two exemplary positions: the geo-philosophical reflections of Carl Schmitt as well as the considerations of Peter Sloterdijk in connection with his analyses of globalization. The article doesn’t intend an final appraisal of the subject matter (or the works of both authors). Following the guideline of Husserls considerations about „earth“ is however asked, which function may have the phenomenon (and topic) of a concretized spatiality in the context of the two exemplary presented philosophical diagnoses. What makes ‚land‘ or ‚space‘ attractive to Schmitt and Sloterdijk?