Geopolitical Consequences Research Articles

Евроатлантическая активность в Индо-Тихоокеанском регионе в контексте СВО: угрозы для Китая

The article is devoted to the study of the impact of the strategic interaction between the United States and NATO on the Indo-Pacific region in the context of intensifying geopolitical competition with China and Russia. It examines the reasons and consequences of NATO’s expansion in this region, as well as the implementation of the U.S. Indo-Pacific strategy. Particular attention is paid to the role of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine as a catalyst for strengthening cooperation between Western allies and Asian countries in deterring China. The study focuses on the implications for China, including challenges to its territorial integrity, economic and political stability. The aim of the article is to analyze the U.S. and NATO strategy in the Indo-Pacific region, its impact on the regional order and China’s interests, as well as to identify the geopolitical consequences of this strategy for international relations. The objectives of the research include: studying the historical prerequi-sites for NATO’s involvement in the regional politics of Asia, identifying the key aspects of the U.S. Indo-Pacific strategy, analyzing the impact of the Russia-Ukraine conflict on the implementation of the American strategy in Asia, identifying challenges for China in the context of increased U.S. and NATO presence in the region, evalu-ating China’s countermeasures, and assessing the prospects for regional cooperation. The article employs methods of systemic analysis and a historical-political approach. The research draws on the works of leading international relations theorists such as John Mearsheimer and Zbigniew Brzezinski, as well as an analysis of U.S. strategic documents. The comparative analysis method is used to examine interactions between the Unit-ed States, NATO, and their Asian partners. The empirical base includes official U.S. and NATO strategies and statements, as well as data on international alliances and exercises.

The Impact of Climate Change on Human Security: Wars and Terrorism

The critical security studies should be not to establish "objective truth" but to enable a broader understanding of security based on respect for specific theoretical and political starting points in its conceptualization. Issues of environmental security and environmental protection are issues of overall security because they directly cause: open conflicts, have the potential to destabilize the regime, can lead to the displacement of the population, and the disintegration of the states. Regarding the geopolitical consequences of climate change, climate change consequences, such as global warming, rising sea levels, droughts, melting glaciers, and many others, significantly impact the world geopolitics. The level of conflict between states depends on how strong the ties and common interests of the entire region, states and globally. Some states depend on what the atmosphere will be like in their environment. If they are stable and economically prosperous, so will they affect neighboring countries. When climate change has reduced living resources, the economic framework played a much more critical role than religion in joining terrorist organizations. There is a need for research initiatives on how modern technologies, on the one hand, and the involvement of the younger generations and minorities on the other, can be used and increased as ways to strengthen communities' resilience to disasters and ensure an effective, comprehensive, and sustainable approach. Quality governance and leadership in the field of climate change is crucial for environmental safety.

Transregional Security Impacts of the Special Military Operation and Strategic Interests of the United States and China (Part 2)

The article analyzes the evolving dynamics of global strategic interests amid major international conflicts, focusing on the geopolitical consequences of the Russia-Ukraine conflict and the strategic maneuvers of key powers like the United States, NATO, China, and Russia. It explores how the U.S. has utilized the conflict to realign its global influence, strengthen NATO, and project power in the Indo-Pacific, emphasizing its intention to counter both Russian and Chinese influence. The U.S. benefits economically from Europe's growing dependency, while using the conflict to enhance military-industrial partnerships and sanctioning regimes targeting Russia and China. China’s strategic realignment, in response, seeks to bolster Sino-Russian cooperation and expand influence in the Asia-Pacific through initiatives like the "Asian Mediterranean" concept, which envisions deeper Eurasian integration. The author outlines China’s attempts to balance its maritime and land power dynamics while navigating heightened U.S. efforts to isolate it diplomatically and militarily. It also highlights the potential for high-tech cooperation between China and Russia as a countermeasure to Western sanctions and technological blockades.

Partition, Ownership of the Harappan Civilisation, Sibling Feud and National Identity Construction of India and Pakistan

This article discusses the political roots of the ongoing complex historical debates about the Ghaggar-Saraswati (or Vedic-Harappan) theory in India and its impact on national identity construction in India and Pakistan. Following the partition of British India in 1947, then known ancient sites of Harappan civilisation were mainly located in Pakistan, which promptly claimed exclusive ownership of this civilisation to trouble India. Clearly upset, a section of Indian scholar-bureaucrats challenged Pakistan’s claims over the Harappan civilisation by rebranding it as the Ghaggar-Saraswati (Vedic-Harappan) civilisation. The ensuing debates and actions are usually explained as an ideological conflict of anxieties, juxtaposing Hindu communalists and left-liberal secularists in Indian academia. However, this article presents a novel argument, showing that the existing academic discourses miss important points. It identifies that the conflicting claims of India and Pakistan on ownership of the Harappan civilisation contain elements of a typical struggle between two estranged siblings fighting over their ancestral inheritance. While squabbling over the shared Harappan heritage, however, neither nation seems fully at ease with the geopolitical consequences of the partition, which divided not only their ancestral lands, but also affected their shared ancient cultural history. Both successor nations of British India, engaged in their respective anxious processes of national identity construction, have focused not only on ‘the other’, but also grapple with ambivalent elements of their cherished ancient heritage. The article also shows that, in India, anger over Pakistan’s claims has fed some nationalist excesses, which need to be critically re-examined.

Forgotten alliances: Japan’s role in World War I and its enduring impact on Southeast Asian geopolitics

PurposeThis paper investigates Japan’s significant role as an Allied power during World War I, exploring its motivations, military contributions and postwar geopolitical ambitions.Design/methodology/approachEmploying a meticulous analysis of primary sources such as historical documents and personal accounts, alongside secondary sources including scholarly articles and books, this study aims to provide a comprehensive understanding of Japan’s decision-making processes during the war. A comparative examination of Japan’s military contributions to the Allied Powers, particularly in securing sea lanes across the West Pacific and Indian Oceans, is conducted to assess their impact on the overall war outcome. Additionally, diplomatic records and negotiations are scrutinized to unravel Japan’s postwar geopolitical objectives, with a focus on its efforts to expand its influence in China.FindingsThe research reveals the multifaceted engagement of Japan in World War I, highlighting its motivations, military actions and postwar ambitions. Japan’s contributions to securing sea lanes and its postwar endeavors to enhance influence in China emerge as significant findings.Research limitations/implicationsThe study’s reliance on historical documents and secondary sources may entail limitations in accessing comprehensive data, potentially impacting the depth of analysis. Furthermore, interpretations of events and motivations may vary based on different scholarly perspectives.Practical implicationsThis study has practical implications for understanding the political and geopolitical context of Japan’s involvement in World War I and its aftermath. By recognizing Japan’s motivations and actions during this period, policymakers and international relations scholars can gain insights into the complexities of imperial ambitions, nationalism and power dynamics in global politics. Understanding these historical implications can inform contemporary discussions about regional stability, alliances and nationalism’s impact on international relations. Furthermore, this research encourages critical analysis of historical narratives and promotes a nuanced understanding of the consequences of imperialistic pursuits in shaping present-day dynamics.Social implicationsThis study fosters a deeper understanding of the historical context and the impact of imperialism on society. By examining Japan's involvement in World War I and its subsequent imperialistic ambitions, the study sheds light on the complexities of nationalism, racial superiority and ideological justifications for expansion. This understanding can help societies reflect on the dangers of chauvinistic nationalism and its potential consequences. By critically analyzing historical events, societies can develop a more inclusive and empathetic perspective. This will promote dialogue, tolerance and the appreciation of diverse cultures in the pursuit of a more harmonious and equitable world.Originality/valueBy combining a thorough examination of primary materials with a comprehensive review of scholarly discourse, this paper offers a nuanced and well-rounded perspective on Japan’s involvement in World War I and its enduring geopolitical consequences. It contributes to the understanding of Japan’s role as an Allied power and its postwar ambitions.

The Belt and Road Initiative: Geopolitical Implications for South Asia

Abstract: The Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) has been initiated in China in 2013 as a transformative global infrastructure and development endeavor involving more than 70 nations. Aside from its economic and financial implications, however, the BRI is often also perceived as Chinas expansionist strategy in increasing soft power. With South Asia playing a pivotal role due to its strategic position and growing economic potential, this paper examines the geopolitical implications of the BRI and Chinese influence in the region. The study explores BRI projects with case studies, revealing how the initiative both offers prospects for economic growth and highlights challenges around sovereignty, debt dependency, and regional security, especially in a region marked by historical rivalries and political complexities. Particular attention is given to the effects of the BRI on the power balance between China, India, and other South Asian nations, as well as its broader impact on strategic partnerships and regional dynamics. Through an analysis of key BRI projects in South Asia and its implications, this paper assesses both the opportunities and challenges the initiative presents, offering insights into the enduring geopolitical consequences for the region.

Enlargement as high politics: New insights on the integration of the German Democratic Republic into the European Community

An essential part of the restructuring of the European security order after the Cold War is the Eastern enlargement of the European Community (EC). This article provides the hitherto missing explanation for the integration of the German Democratic Republic (GDR) into the EC. In alignment with neoclassical realism, I claim that high politics took precedence in this exceptional enlargement. Established theories underestimate the importance of security and power and, thereby, fall short in accounting for the fast-track accession of the GDR to the EC. I argue that the Federal Republic of Germany (FRG) pressed for a rapid reunification including the automatic accession of the GDR to the EC. Motivated by internal factors, the FRG’s government ventured a take-it-or-leave-it-offer that the other EC states acquiesced to under the threat of a German withdrawal from the EC with unforeseeable geopolitical consequences. The analysis builds on recently declassified, original documents collected from different archives.

The impact of technological cooperation on Russian-Chinese relations: prospects and challenges

The study of technological cooperation between Russia and China is an in-depth analysis of the interrelationships that have developed between the two countries in the field of science and technology. The focus is on ongoing projects and initiatives, such as joint research, which play a key role in the development of both States. The influence of the international situation on these relations is considered as global changes and economic sanctions against Russia can affect the dynamics of cooperation with China. The study also analyzes the challenges that may arise in the development of these ties, including issues of intellectual property and competitiveness in the international arena. An important place is occupied by studying the role of technological exchange in strengthening the strategic partnership between the two countries, as well as its possible geopolitical consequences, such as strengthening the positions of both countries on the world stage, reducing dependence on Western technologies and influencing global supply chains. The study highlights the importance of technology cooperation as a tool to achieve a sustainable and secure future for Russia and China in a changing world order. The article uses methods of qualitative analysis based on data from scientific publications and reports. An important place is given to the interdisciplinary approach, which includes elements of system analysis, economic theory, international relations and political science. The methods used help to investigate the influence of technological factors on the dynamics of Russian-Chinese relations and assess their long-term prospects. Technological cooperation between Russia and China demonstrates great significant potential, despite the existing challenges. The study highlights the impact of political, economic and technological factors, as well as risks such as political instability and cyber threats. Deepening high-tech collaboration opens up new horizons for both countries, allowing knowledge sharing in strategically important sectors such as artificial intelligence and 5G. This study makes an innovative contribution, emphasizing the need to integrate technology and policy solutions. Technological cooperation also contributes to strengthening geopolitical cooperation in the face of sanctions pressure and instability. To achieve long-term success, it is important to develop stable cooperation mechanisms, minimize risks and ensure stability based on trust and joint strategies.

The Reinvigoration of the Organization of Turkic States amid Ongoing Geopolitical Unrest and Economic Uncertainty

The recent regional events and the geopolitical consequences of the Russo-Ukrainian war have had a profound impact on the dynamics among Türkiye, Azerbaijan, and the Central Asian Turkic states (Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, and Kyrgyzstan). This shifting geopolitical landscape has been the catalyst of collaboration and integration for these countries under the Organization of Turkic States (OTS), an intergovernmental organization that aims to foster cooperation among Turkic-speaking nations. Being established in 2009, this emerging bloc has pursued a relatively low-profile policy on geopolitical issues in the past decade. However, after years of relatively little activity, things have started to change drastically due to the global situation that is being shaped by wider geopolitical factors. The OTS steadily began to pursue a more ambitious agenda and eventually helped bolster relations and stimulate regional socio-economic development efforts during the last four years, focusing on building stronger regional cooperation through ethnocultural links. The article examines how the Turkic alliance has stimulated functional cooperation through the facilitation of trade, investment, and economic cooperation among its members and observer states.

Asymmetric Impact of Russia–Ukraine War on Global Stock Markets

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine on February 24, 2022, emerged as Europe’s most significant military conflict post second world war, with global economic and geopolitical consequences. Using a broad (95-country) sample, the study examines the impact of the Russia–Ukraine war on global stock markets surrounding the war announcement. It applied the event study method and used short and long event windows to examine the war’s immediate and intermediate impacts. Global stock markets delivered negative 1.90% abnormal returns on the day of the war announcement, and Russia saw the biggest fall. However, after the initial adverse reaction, stock markets reacted asymmetrically. Stock markets of the countries in geographic proximity and high trade intensity with Russia and Ukraine, and net importers of energy and food grains negatively reacted more than the rest. The regional results show that Asia Pacific and Europe reported negative returns across event windows. In contrast, the Americas, Africa, and the Middle East did not react negatively, even in the shortest event window. Adverse war reactions moderated over time. Equity investors and portfolio managers who aim to protect their investments should buy stocks in countries that are net exporters of commodities made in war-torn countries and switch to stock markets geographically far from the war zone.

‘Freedom within the framework’? The everyday politics of religion, state repression and migration in Vietnam’s borderlands and beyond

ABSTRACT How do peripheral, ‘voiceless’ people engage with politics in authoritarian contexts where formal politics is not a viable option? This article demonstrates the value of applying an everyday politics perspective to grassroots religious activity and mobilities, by providing an in-depth case study of a recently Christianised ethnic minority group based in Vietnam’s politically sensitive borderlands. In the face of religious persecution and social conflict sponsored by an overbearing state, hundreds of thousands of ordinary ethnic Hmong Protestants subtly resist, evade and/or support religious policies through mundane, everyday behaviour which have unintended geopolitical consequences, collectively undermine state legitimacy and can be credited with substantial policy changes over time. Based on rich qualitative data, I argue that a careful investigation of everyday spaces as sites of political contestation not only highlights the agency of non-elite religious actors but can also reveal insights about the nature of the ‘top-down’ forces they engage with.

The Evolution of the Hebronite Regionalism 1929–48

Abstract The article discusses the integration of the Mount Hebron area into a distinct social and political region during the time of British Mandate in Palestine and the emergence of a regional “Hebronite” identity encompassing both the city of Hebron and the villages of the area. The study demonstrates that, while in many areas of the country such regional integration, or regionalization, developed through the gradual growth of economic, administrative, and political networks in the nineteenth century, the regionalization of Mount Hebron took place much later. It was not an outcome of the same dynamics as in other regions, but mainly a reaction born of chronic insecurity, as well as the social and even environmental hardships experienced in the region. In the 1940s, the determination to overcome these challenges was translated into the construction of a stable regional system that had significant intra-Palestinian and even geopolitical consequences. The study also shows that, while the Hebronite identity was a sub-national one, it had strong symbiotic, sometimes ambivalent, relations with the Palestinian and Arab national identities. Moreover, it was in no way a primordial but clearly a modern phenomenon.

Will the European Green Deal enhance Europe’s security towards Russia? A political economy perspective

Will the European Green Deal enhance Europe’s security towards Russia? A political economy perspective

The Economic and Geopolitical Implications of China's Belt and Road Initiative in Eastern Europe: A Case Study on Serbia

This paper critically analyses the economic and geopolitical consequences of China's Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) on Serbia. The primary focus is on the initiative's effects on the country's infrastructure development, employment, and trade sectors. The study adopts a positivist research ethic and employs a deductive technique. It utilizes quantitative methodologies by administering an online survey to 350 practitioners actively engaged in BRI projects in Serbia. The data analysis was conducted using the SPSS program. The research findings demonstrate that the infrastructure investment and employment generation associated with the BRI have had notable positive impacts on Serbia's economic and geopolitical development. Moreover, it has been discovered that trade dynamics with China have the potential to bolster economic growth and foster positive geopolitical relations. Nevertheless, the study admits many limitations, including a restricted sample size and the lack of qualitative data. Future study recommendations encompass the need for enhanced stakeholder engagement on a wider scale and the implementation of longitudinal studies to effectively capture the dynamic and evolving impacts over time.

The Potential Impact of Demographic Changes in Geopolitical Landscape

In an era marked by swift demographic changes, the population of a country emerges as a crucial source of power and progress, shaping the future geopolitical landscape. This paper explores the dynamic interplay between evolving demographic elements and their intricate relationship with geopolitics. Through a synthesis of compelling cases and data-driven analysis, the paper provides fresh perspectives on the geopolitical ramifications of demographic transitions. The research incorporates a literature review, establishing the significance of population as a determinant of national power, offering a comprehensive overview of global demographic changes, and presenting an empirical analysis that underscores the role of demographic shifts as catalysts for geopolitical consequences. The study, grounded in political demography theory, integrates demographic aspects with geopolitical implications. Employing qualitative analysis, the research utilizes both numerical and non-numerical data from secondary sources to establish connections among variables. Overall, the discussion underscores that demographic shifts, ranging from declining population growth in certain nations to youth bulges in others, will exert profound impacts on the worldwide geopolitical landscape. It emphasises the necessity for nations to proactively address demographic challenges, through strategic policies that prioritize workforce development, social welfare, and international alliances. This proactive approach is deemed essential for ensuring sustained economic and military capabilities amidst the evolving geopolitical scenario.

The EU Energy Transition in a Geopoliticizing World

ABSTRACT Amidst heightened global power rivalries, the geopolitical aspects of the energy transition are taking centre stage, with even liberal-minded countries growing wary about foreign investment in the energy sector and the dependencies created by global value chains of green technologies. Building on current debates on the ‘geopoliticization’ of foreign economic policies, this paper sets out a conceptual framework to assess the extent to which the energy transition is becoming geopoliticized in the European Union (EU) and its impact on international energy relations. Theoretically, the paper makes the case for considering geopoliticization as a missing link in the study of politicization and securitization in International Relations, allowing for a more fine-grained diagnosis of current trends and their likely evolution. Empirically, the analysis identifies structural geopoliticizing dynamics in the EU’s framing of the energy transition, although to different degrees depending on the concrete issue at hand. While demands for factoring in the geopolitical consequences of the energy transition are ever louder, normatively, the paper raises a note of caution against the adverse consequences geopoliticization may have for the global transition to low-carbon energy systems.

ПЕРСПЕКТИВИ РОЗПАДУ РОСІЙСЬКОЇ НЕОІМПЕРІЇ ТА ЇХ ГЕОПОЛІТИЧНІ НАСЛІДКИ

The article examines the prospects of the collapse of the Russian neo-empire and their geopolitical consequences. In particular, it is noted that one of the key imperial trends is the desire for expansion, so Russia, as the last neo-empire, constantly creates sources of tension in the post-Soviet space, seizing foreign territories. It is indicated that the reasons for the attack on Ukraine were geopolitical, economic, food, energy, and demographic. In particular, one of the main ones was the attempt to revive the Soviet Union, the collapse of which Putin called the biggest geopolitical catastrophe of the last century. Attention is focused on the key reasons that can lead to the decline or collapse of the Russian empire, among which the following should be highlighted: lack of a clear goal and development strategy; lack of unity and common values of peoples living on the territory of Russia; excessive centralization of power and fragility of the management system; gradual weakening of the legitimacy of the current government; strengthening of economic problems, growth of the economic gap between regions; diversity and diversity of identities; lack of rule of law, violation of human and citizen rights and freedoms, rights of ethnic groups, etc.; lack of desire for innovation and modernization; prospects for strengthening regionalization processes; moral and spiritual anomie, which covered all spheres of life in Russian society; the spread of resentment. In particular, it is indicated that in totalitarian and authoritarian states, which can be most clearly observed on the example of modern North Korea or the Russian Federation, a person becomes a pure product of social manipulative technologies and, first of all, massive state propaganda, which deliberately creates resentment in the population - a distorted and twisted picture of reality. The image of external enemies is also planted, in particular, for Russians, these are Ukrainians and residents of Western countries, who are to blame for all the troubles of the latter. It is emphasized that the distorted picture of the world cannot be long-lasting, as it denies the true reality, leads to the undermining of the economic and political well-being of Russia for the sake of creating fanciful ideals, belief in one's own indomitable strength and power, which does not correspond to reality. Rejection of reality, defactualization in Russia enters the stage of self-destruction of the state and society and can be stopped only by a mass enlightenment of Russian society as a result of the fall of Putin's regime, severe economic crisis or loss in the war. Therefore, the collapse of the Russian neo-empire is inevitable, it is only a matter of time.

BRICS expansion and its geopolitical consequences

BRICS expansion and its geopolitical consequences

Rohingya Crisis from a Geopolitical Lens: Power Struggle over Regional Hegemony shadowing the Humanitarian needs

Abstract: Rakhine state in Myanmar is strategically located at the center of a power struggle between emerging Asian nations. Consequently, the strategic position has become the crucial factor that fans the fire behind the current Rohingya issue. As a minority group in Myanmar, the Rohingya have struggled for citizenship for decades. To escape the state-orchestrated persecution, a large number of Rohingya took shelter in neighboring Bangladesh. Under the cloak of geopolitical issues, the Rohingya Crisis has lingered for five years with no clear path to resolution. While India attempts to pursue its “Act East Policy,” China seeks to incorporate Myanmar into its “One Belt, One Road” initiative. A further aggravating factor is a threat posed by US military forces in Southeast Asia to China’s interests. However, as a neighboring nation of Myanmar, Bangladesh became entangled in the conflict between the Regional Competitors. The study argues that the geopolitical interest of bordering countries and the economic interest of the military regime have exacerbated the situation and are one of the primary reasons why the crisis has not been resolved. The purpose of this study is to analyze how and why the geopolitical consequences of the Rohingya crisis outrun the humanitarian demands of this crisis. Through content analysis of previous scholarly publications, the conclusions of the research have centered on how the fight for regional hegemony makes the Rohingya crisis more vulnerable.

Green Hydrogen Policies in the Clean Energy Transition- A Comparative Analysis of Russia and China

Green hydrogen leads energy transition plans to address environmental issues worldwide. As governments seek to cut carbon emissions and improve energy security, green hydrogen from wind, solar, and hydropower appears to be promising. This abstract summarizes an in-depth comparative research of green hydrogen economies and regulatory frameworks in China and Russia, two key geopolitical powers. China, the world's greatest greenhouse gas emitter, and Russia, an energy exporter, shape the global energy landscape. Both nations have pledged to green hydrogen generation as part of their decarbonization efforts. This report examines their green hydrogen efforts' distinctive features and trajectories, including their investment motivations, aspirations, and technology advances. This paper compares China and Russia's green hydrogen development policy frameworks and regulatory processes. It investigates policy levers that drive or hinder growth, public-private partnerships, and worldwide sustainability objectives. The geopolitical consequences of China and Russia's green hydrogen efforts are also examined. It examines how their policies affect regional and global energy, commerce, and diplomatic ties. The research also examines whether these two countries will cooperate or compete in the green hydrogen industry. This study seeks to analyze China and Russia's green hydrogen landscapes via energy policy analysis, environmental studies, and international relations. Policymakers, business stakeholders, and researchers interested in the transition to a sustainable energy future and its geopolitical consequences benefit from its insights into their plans, difficulties, and regulatory settings. This report adds to the worldwide discussion on using green hydrogen as a key component of a decarbonized energy system.