Geopolitical Complexity Research Articles

Strategic energy transition in the Gulf Cooperation Council: Balancing economic, social, political, and environmental dynamics for sustainable development

ABSTRACT This study presents a strategic assessment of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries’ transition from hydrocarbon dependence to renewable energy, with a focus on net-zero goals and sustainable development. Anchored in foundational drivers such as environmental concerns, economic diversification, and energy security, the research identifies emerging drivers, including green energy diplomacy, enhanced competitiveness, and the rise of green geopolitical power, which together bring the region’s transition into the global spotlight. Using a mixed-methods approach, the study integrates a quantitative model analyzing renewable energy capacity trends with qualitative insights that contextualize the socio-economic and geopolitical complexities affecting this shift. Linear regression models reveal disparities in renewable energy progress, with the UAE demonstrating strong alignment with its targets, while Bahrain and Kuwait exhibit slower growth. The study highlights that global events, such as the Russia-Ukraine conflict, have intensified fossil fuel demand, challenging the GCC’s renewable goals as it continues to fulfill its role as a major energy provider. Policy recommendations include investing in renewables, fostering partnerships, reducing subsidies, and introducing region-specific incentives to promote resilience, diversification, and welfare. This study offers actionable insights for policymakers on strategic planning and underscores the importance of global cooperation in supporting the GCC’s sustainable energy transition.

The Russian-Ukrainian Conflict: Perspective and Prospective (2022-2023)

Objectives: This study attempts to analyze the motives and dynamics of the conflict, and to identify the conflicting interests and objectives of those supporting the continuation of this war. Additionally, it aims to evaluate the network of interactions and complex effects among the active parties in this conflict, alongside analyzing both the challenges and opportunities available for resolving this conflict. Furthermore, it aims to extrapolate the potential outcomes and ramifications of the continuation of this conflict. Methods: The study also sought to provide a comprehensive analysis of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, specifically on its historical dimensions and geopolitical complexities. This was done through a multidimensional scientific approach that involved integrating various theories, concepts, and frameworks from international relations, security studies, and regional conflicts. These were scientifically employed to serve the purpose of this study. Results: The findings underscore the dynamic and unpredictable nature of the conflict, emphasizing the imperative for profound comprehension and strategic intervention. The study advocates for a cautious yet proactive resolution approach, stressing the need for comprehensive analysis and understanding. Conclusion: Recognizing the conflict's profound implications for regional and global peace, security, and socioeconomic development, the research concludes by highlighting the importance of diplomatic maneuvers, internal shifts, and external dynamics in shaping the conflict's future trajectory.

The Horizon of the Third Pole: Mapping future scenarios and strategic responses

The Third Pole region, comprising the vast glaciers and water systems of the Hindu Kush Himalayas (HKH), is emerging as a key indicator of global climate change. Often referred to as the “Water Tower of Asia,” it sustains nearly 2 billion people through its water resources, yet the region is experiencing unprecedented changes. This review examines the region's evolving climate dynamics, focusing on key climate scenarios and potential strategic responses. The paper synthesizes data from the latest climate models, regional governance frameworks, and international climate policy developments to explore future pathways for the Third Pole. It also delves into the region's socio-economic vulnerabilities, water security challenges, and the geopolitical complexities of transboundary environmental governance. Our findings emphasize the need for proactive adaptation strategies, transboundary cooperation, and innovative policy mechanisms to mitigate climate risks. The review provides a roadmap for policymakers, scientists, and regional stakeholders to navigate the looming environmental crises, highlighting pathways that could forge a resilient future for the Third Pole.

INTRODUCTION

This special issue is interested in the processes of creating performing arts settings, including spaces for dance, arts festivals, and theatre performances, during and beyond the COVID-19 pandemic. The authors explore the continuities and changes in the configurations of performing arts settings and ask about their transformative potential. The cultural initiatives in focus are located at the fringes of geo-political complexities: They take place in Cyprus’s Buffer Zone, around a palace in post-Prussian North Poland, within Russia’s Irish dance community, in Latvia’s theatrical community. This issue further ethnographically records and interrogates challenges and odds in making performing art settings during and beyond the COVID-19 Pandemic. It finds that different experiences of “losing touch” and detachment become inseparably linked with practices of entanglement, shaping the possibility of “taking place” in performing arts settings. Methodologically, the authors in this issue bridge the commonly upheld gap between research and practice in the fields they discuss, transgressing the boundaries between ethnography, socio-cultural analysis, and engaged research.

AFGHANISTAN'S POLITICAL CHANGE AND THE BELT AND ROAD INITIATIVE: AN OVERVIEW OF THE SITUATION

This article explores the intricate relationship between Afghanistan's evolving political landscape and the ambitious Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). Situated at the crossroads of geopolitical complexities, Afghanistan has undergone enduring political transformations, prompting a critical review of its international role. As the nation grapples with transformative political journeys, this study scrutinizes the interplay between internal changes and the broader goals of the BRI. Initiated by China, the BRI represents an unprecedented effort in global connectivity and economic cooperation. The article outlines the dynamics of Afghanistan's political scenario and its potential impact on the BRI, revealing the complex relationship between political changes and the future trajectory of this ambitious initiative within Afghanistan's borders. Central to this exploration is the Belt and Road Initiative, a historic initiative spanning continents with the aim to reshape global trade patterns and strengthen economic cooperation. Originating from China, the BRI vision goes beyond infrastructure development, encompassing diplomatic, economic, and cultural dimensions. Understanding the goals and mechanisms of the BRI is fundamental to assessing how Afghanistan's political transformation might align with this transformative initiative. This article aims to dissect the point where Afghanistan's political trajectory converges with the aspirations of the BRI. By detailing the complex interplay between these two dynamic forces, the study explores synergies, conflicts, and potential implications for Afghanistan's geopolitical position and the broader goals of the BRI. As a scholarly endeavor, it contributes nuanced insights to the ongoing discourse on global politics, international cooperation, and the transformative potential of large-scale infrastructure projects in regions undergoing significant political change. Keywords: Afghanistan, Political Change, Belt and Road Initiative, Geopolitics, Infrastructure Development, Economic Dynamics, Regional Cooperation.

РОЛЬ И МЕСТО ЖЕНЩИН ЭТНИЧЕСКИХ СООБЩЕСТВ В КОНСТРУИРОВАНИИ ИДЕНТИЧНОСТИ В КАЗАХСТАНЕ

This article explores the intricate relationship between Afghanistan's evolving political landscape and the ambitious Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). Situated at the crossroads of geopolitical complexities, Afghanistan has undergone enduring political transformations, prompting a critical review of its international role. As the nation grapples with transformative political journeys, this study scrutinizes the interplay between internal changes and the broader goals of the BRI. Initiated by China, the BRI represents an unprecedented effort in global connectivity and economic cooperation. The article outlines the dynamics of Afghanistan's political scenario and its potential impact on the BRI, revealing the complex relationship between political changes and the future trajectory of this ambitious initiative within Afghanistan's borders. Central to this exploration is the Belt and Road Initiative, a historic initiative spanning continents with the aim to reshape global trade patterns and strengthen economic cooperation. Originating from China, the BRI vision goes beyond infrastructure development, encompassing diplomatic, economic, and cultural dimensions. Understanding the goals and mechanisms of the BRI is fundamental to assessing how Afghanistan's political transformation might align with this transformative initiative. This article aims to dissect the point where Afghanistan's political trajectory converges with the aspirations of the BRI. By detailing the complex interplay between these two dynamic forces, the study explores synergies, conflicts, and potential implications for Afghanistan's geopolitical position and the broader goals of the BRI. As a scholarly endeavor, it contributes nuanced insights to the ongoing discourse on global politics, international cooperation, and the transformative potential of large-scale infrastructure projects in regions undergoing significant political change. Keywords: Afghanistan, Political Change, Belt and Road Initiative, Geopolitics, Infrastructure Development, Economic Dynamics, Regional Cooperation.

АНАЛИЗ ПОЛИТИК ВЗАИМОДЕЙСТВИЯ С ДИАСПОРОЙ ЗА РУБЕЖОМ: ОПЫТ ДЛЯ КАЗАХСТАНА

Abstract. This article explores the intricate relationship between Afghanistan's evolving political landscape and the ambitious Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). Situated at the crossroads of geopolitical complexities, Afghanistan has undergone enduring political transformations, prompting a critical review of its international role. As the nation grapples with transformative political journeys, this study scrutinizes the interplay between internal changes and the broader goals of the BRI. Initiated by China, the BRI represents an unprecedented effort in global connectivity and economic cooperation. The article outlines the dynamics of Afghanistan's political scenario and its potential impact on the BRI, revealing the complex relationship between political changes and the future trajectory of this ambitious initiative within Afghanistan's borders. Central to this exploration is the Belt and Road Initiative, a historic initiative spanning continents with the aim to reshape global trade patterns and strengthen economic cooperation. Originating from China, the BRI vision goes beyond infrastructure development, encompassing diplomatic, economic, and cultural dimensions. Understanding the goals and mechanisms of the BRI is fundamental to assessing how Afghanistan's political transformation might align with this transformative initiative. This article aims to dissect the point where Afghanistan's political trajectory converges with the aspirations of the BRI. By detailing the complex interplay between these two dynamic forces, the study explores synergies, conflicts, and potential implications for Afghanistan's geopolitical position and the broader goals of the BRI. As a scholarly endeavor, it contributes nuanced insights to the ongoing discourse on global politics, international cooperation, and the transformative potential of large-scale infrastructure projects in regions undergoing significant political change. Keywords: Afghanistan, Political Change, Belt and Road Initiative, Geopolitics, Infrastructure Development, Economic Dynamics, Regional Cooperation.

Issues of LNG producing companies entering the eastern markets and ways to overcome them

This article is devoted to identifying the features of the еastern liquefied natural gas (hereinafter referred to as LNG) markets and new opportunities for entering them. The purpose of this article is to study the problems of LNG producing companies entering the еastern markets and ways to overcome them. The work analyses the current state of the еastern LNG markets and their development prospects, existing barriers, including those caused by the conflict in the Middle East, and possible consequences of the escalation of the conflict. The authors consider the issues of developing localised infrastructure and technological solutions that increase the efficiency of supply chains, meet specific market needs and provide a competitive advantage in the еastern markets. Logframe and comparative analysis, systems approach, and modelling have been used in the research process. As a result, the study has identified a number of challenges for LNG producers, primarily related to geopolitical complexities, regulatory environment, and market development dynamics, to innovations, ecological norms, and understanding regional tensions that may impact supply chains and trade agreements. The findings of the article can be used when domestic companies develop strategies to enter the еastern LNG markets with existing contracts or expand them.

Study of Supply Chain Selection Strategies of Firms under Geopolitics

Based on the geopolitical perspective, the study analyzes the interaction between global trade policies and supply chain strategies, and constructs a theoretical model to explore how the tariff structure of final products is shaped by value-added content and the role of the most-favored-nation (MFN) rule and the principle of reciprocal trade in it. The findings suggest that geopolitical factors have a significant impact on international trade strategies and supply chain configurations. This theoretical framework indicates the importance for policymakers to consider geopolitical complexity in maintaining the global trade order and supply chain resilience, and promotes the construction of solid and adaptable international trade and supply chain management strategies.

Balancing Act: The Dual Role of Military Alliances in Contemporary International Relations

This paper critically examines the dual role of military alliances in contemporary international relations, particularly focusing on their impact on global stability and regional cooperation. By analyzing historical and modern examples, including NATO and the interactions among the United States, China, and Russia, the study elucidates how military alliances have transitioned from Cold War security mechanisms to multifaceted entities confronting today's geopolitical complexities. It delves into the security dilemmas alliances face, their strategic contractions, and the unique challenges posed by China's ascendancy and the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict. The paper underscores that while these alliances are pivotal in upholding global order, they also generate substantial obstacles to regional cooperation, especially in East Asia. This dichotomy is evident in the alliances' evolution, which reflects a shift from primarily defensive postures to roles that encompass economic and diplomatic dimensions, influencing regional dynamics and power balances. This paper demonstrates the various differences and contradictions between today's military alliances and regional cooperation, including contradictions in mechanisms, differences in concepts, overlaps in functions, and conflicts of practical interests. The findings advocate for a reassessment of military alliances, suggesting that future frameworks should foster trust and inclusivity, accommodating the diverse interests of regional actors to enhance cooperative security and stability.

A Comparative Analysis of the Level of Direct Commercial and Financial Relations: A Case Study of the Two Sides of the Taiwan Straits in the Past Ten Years

This research conducts a comprehensive analysis of the direct commercial and financial relations between Taiwan and mainland China over the past ten years, aiming to understand the depth, trends, and impacts of economic ties. The study employs a comparative analysis approach to leverage data from reputable sources such as the International Monetary Fund (IMF), World Bank, and official reports from Taiwan and China. The analysis of trade patterns reveals a consistent increase in volumes, showcasing a maturing economic relationship marked by the diversification of traded goods. Cross-Strait investments, particularly in critical sectors like technology and finance, highlight strategic collaborations and sector-specific interdependence. Financial relationships, examined through IMF reports and national financial institutions, demonstrate a deepening integration of banking ties despite geopolitical complexities. The study employs theoretical frameworks such as Complex Interdependence Theory and Political Economy Theory to interpret findings. The data analysis includes time-series analysis techniques to identify seasonality, trends, and cyclical patterns, providing insights for policymakers and businesses. The study's significance lies in its contribution to understanding the multifaceted nature of cross-Strait economic relations, emphasizing the endurance of economic interactions despite political complexities. The findings provide a nuanced foundation for improved bilateral relations, offering policymakers insights for strategic adjustments and fostering sustainable economic collaboration. In conclusion, this research contributes to the academic discourse on Taiwan-China economic relations by providing a detailed and empirically supported analysis. It addresses the intricacies of trade, investments, and financial collaborations, shedding light on the dynamics shaping the economic ties between these two entities.

Geoeconomic Strategy in the Conditions of Modern Geopolitical Challenges

This article examines contemporary geoeconomic strategy amidst global geopolitical and economic challenges. Coined by Edward Lutwak, geoeconomics integrates international economics, geopolitics, and strategy, emphasizing economic power in global dynamics. Examining the connection of economic policies with geopolitical interests, the article investigates how states use economic instruments to assert power, maneuver regional hegemonies, and safeguard strategic objectives. The article highlights the transformative impact of events like Brexit, the COVID-19 pandemic, and the Russian invasion of Ukraine in February of 2022, emphasizing the importance of economic diplomacy in the complexity of contemporary challenges. In navigating this landscape, states must adopt nuanced geoeconomic strategies to secure their national interests effectively. The article underscores the necessity for innovative approaches to address modern geopolitical complexities and ensure relevance in an interconnected world. Keywords: geoeconomics, geopolitics, economic policy, world economic order, international economic relations.

Challenges of green startups in the post-soviet economies

This article delves into the difficulties faced by environmentally conscious startups in the post-Soviet economies. The breakup of the USSR gave rise to a period characterized by economic restructuring and a shift towards market-based economies, but green startups encounter numerous obstacles arising from a lack of entrepreneurial expertise, insufficient funding, and complex regulations. In Russia, the dominance of the oil and gas industry hampers the drive for alternative energy ventures, while Ukraine, Belarus, and Moldova grapple with funding gaps and infrastructure deficiencies. The South Caucasus countries face issues related to oil dependency, burdensome regulations, and limited access to funding, while the Baltic states prioritize swift innovation and adeptly navigating regulations. Central Asian nations, blessed with abundant natural resources, face challenges including regulatory restrictions and geopolitical complexities that impede the transition to green practices. Collaborative efforts are vital in overcoming these hurdles, enabling regulatory reform, strengthening sustainable initiatives, and fostering innovation to promote the growth of green startups in these economies.

Economic Growth and Social Progress: Bangladesh's Pathway to Development

Over the last ten years, Bangladesh has grown at an astounding yearly rate of about 7%. As evidenced by the GDP growth from USD 18.14 billion in 1980 to USD 460.2 billion in 2022, the nation is predicted to occupy the 20th position in the globe by 2037. This short examines Bangladesh's economic growth, which has resulted in notable advancements in social indices. They include increased longevity, a noticeable decline in the death rate among children under five, and notable advancements in gender equality and education. To investigate how Bangladesh's social advancement and economic growth are related, this study will trace the nation's historical path and evaluate the effects of numerous variables, including GDP growth and advancements in social indices. The goal of the study is to shed light on Bangladesh's development-related obstacles. This paper is the outcome of a thorough analysis of academic journals' published scholarly research articles utilizing secondary data sources, the research was carried out utilizing a desk-based methodology. The brief highlights the difficulties facing Dhaka, such as its excessive reliance on the textile industry, energy shortages, and geopolitical complexity that impedes economic advancement, while also emphasizing the crucial role that democracy plays in preserving social cohesion, political stability, and gender equality. These attributes are believed to be crucial for attracting foreign investment and sustaining Bangladesh's economic expansion.

Global Power Shift and Nepal's Geopolitical Complexity

The process of globalization, with the flow of people, merchandise, and capital, has invited different challenges, threats, and insecurities. Thus, the idea of border governance has emerged among the states, calling for a collaborative approach to border management systems between the neighboring states. As a qualitative study adhering to the "practice turn" in International Relations (IR) and considering human actions responsible for constructing social realities, the study has focused on the Nepal-India open border. As a unique border, the study has pointed out different threats and challenges faced by Nepal and India because of their openness. The article has briefly elucidated the emerging concept of border governance. Likewise, it has introduced the idea of border governance for Nepal-India open borders, outlining its principles and strategies. Overall, the study emphasized the importance of border governance for Nepal-India borders, recognizing border disputes and enormous challenges.

The Impact of Regional and Global Dynamics on Pakistan-Iran Relations

The research explores the geopolitical significance of the "Goldsmith Line," a border between Iran and Pakistan. Serving as a strategic link between the Middle East and South Asia, the Goldsmith Line connects the Balochistan provinces on both sides, inhabited by the Baloch people. The study delves into historical shifts in Iran-Pakistan relations, highlighting the impact of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) and the potential for enhanced collaboration. Challenges, including security tensions, sectarian elements, and regional dynamics, are discussed. Furthermore, it emphasizes the shared cultural, ethnic, and economic ties between Baloch people on both sides, proposing measures for economic development and border security improvement. It also explores the evolving dynamics of Russia-Pakistan relations, addressing historical contexts and recent developments. The research concludes by examining obstacles and opportunities in current Iran-Pakistan ties, emphasizing the need for cautious navigation amid geopolitical complexities.

The 21st Century Israel-Palestine Conflict Over Jerusalem and its Peace Processes

Jerusalem is a depiction of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict's national politics and contrasting identities. The continuous rise in violence, with its devastating effect on peace and security prompts the examination of the conflict, various peace processes and the status of Jerusalem. The major objectives of this paper are to examine the Israel-Palestine conflict over Jerusalem in the 21st century and analyse the status of Jerusalem and different peace talks through external mediation and intervention. The theory of structural realism was adopted for this study; which, concerning the conflict over Jerusalem, emphasises that war is a significant, and fundamental instrument of change in international affairs. Secondary data was used in this paper, by reviewing and analysing data gathered from scholarly publications, journals, articles, and online materials. The paper finds an intensified increase of violence between Israel and Palestine, especially regarding the status of Jerusalem and Palestine as an independent state. The paper concludes that despite numerous peace processes and diplomatic efforts, a lasting resolution has remained elusive. The failure to achieve a comprehensive agreement stems from a combination of factors, including conflicting narratives, incompatibility of goals, deep-rooted mistrust, geopolitical complexities, and the influence of external actors. Peace, stability, and acceptable status of Jerusalem can only be initiated and resolved solemnly between Israel and Palestine, but until then, neither the status of Jerusalem nor Palestine would be defined.

Impact of the geopolitical status quo vis‐à‐vis the Rohingya crisis on the social, economic, and political aspects of Bangladesh

AbstractThe long‐standing Rohingya crisis has become complicated due to geopolitical complexities, and more than a million Rohingya refugees remain stranded in Bangladesh. This situation has had a dramatic impact on Bangladesh. Shortages of international funding exacerbate the situation further, and a regional security threat could be created if the current situation continues unabated. The empirical research undertaken in this paper examines the impact of the Rohingya refugees on the social, economic, and political aspects of Bangladesh from a micro level perspective. This study follows a qualitative research methodology that uses analysis of documents and analytical interpretations of 20 in‐depth interviews from Bangladesh. Environmental destruction and the government's dilemma with controlling law and order are apparent consequences of the Rohingya influx. Competition in the labor market, economic hardships, acquiring land, and deforestation create a conflict between the host community and the Rohingya refugee group. Theoretical and practical implications are discussed.

Indonesia's Economic Advancement through Leveraging the Geopolitical Rivalry and Geostrategic between the USA and China in the Indo-Pacific Region

<p class="Els-history-head">Indonesia's challenge in leveraging the USA-China rivalry for economic advancement requires a nuanced approach, considering its passive foreign policy, strategic dependence, and domestic development challenges. The country aims to enhance recovery prospects by strengthening food and financial security, rebuilding regional growth, and connectivity, while also accelerating the transformation towards an inclusive and participatory digital economy. The study aims to explore how Indonesia can strategically leverage the USA-China rivalry in the Indo-Pacific to enhance its economic opportunities and examine the implications of the rivalry on its economic growth and development. This study employs a qualitative research design, analyzing, and interpreting data from literature reviews. The results show Indonesia's economic growth and development are intricately linked to its approach to leveraging the USA-China rivalry, managing infrastructure dependencies, and promoting the digital economy. To ensure sustainable progress and poverty reduction, well-designed policies and a multi-pronged approach are essential. Balancing relations with both the USA and China will be pivotal in attracting investment and expanding trade while avoiding undue external influence. Emphasizing digital infrastructure, talent, economy, and government sectors can also enhance the digital economy and contribute to Indonesia's long-term success on the global stage. Finally, Indonesia must navigate geopolitical complexities, its passive foreign policy, and domestic challenges to fully capitalize on the benefits of the USA-China rivalry while safeguarding its interests and promoting regional stability.</p>

Health system recovery in Northwest Syria–challenges and operationalization

The demonstrations in Syria in 2011 became an uncompromising conflict that divided the country into three main areas of control: governmental areas, northeast Syria, and Northwest Syria. A series of United Nations resolutions adopted in 2014 authorizing official cross-border humanitarian aid in opposition-held areas to allow humanitarian agencies and organizations to use routes across the border from neighborhood countries like Turkey to deliver humanitarian assistance to people in need in Syria. The resolution was extended annually until 2021 when it was adapted to involve a cross-line humanitarian response from governmental areas besides cross-border operations. The last adaptation of the cross-border resolution, whose original form was interpreted as a politicized action by Russia and China, implicates an unframed and unplanned transition from an emergency to an Early Recovery status. Without an appropriate framework for the current geopolitical complexity in Syria, Early Recovery programs are doomed to fail, resulting in further complications in the political and humanitarian scenes. Moreover, the effectiveness of the cross-line mechanism is questionable, considering the lack of accessibility and acceptability for Damascus-based humanitarian operations in areas out of government control. The article reviews studies about Early Recovery guidelines and operational frameworks of health systems recovery in post-conflict settings to derive a practical and hybrid framework for operationalizing health system recovery in Northwest Syria, considering current geopolitical and humanitarian circumstances. This article draws upon the six building blocks of the health system, the essential package of public health services, Early Recovery integration criteria, health system resilience dimensions in the literature, and public health determinants to identify context-specific health system recovery challenges and priorities. As a result, we introduce a new health system recovery framework, which is operationalized for the context of Northwest Syria.