With an emphasis on the combined degradation of railway track geometry and components, an improved numerical approach is proposed for predicting the track geometrical vertical levelling loss (VLL). In contrast to previous studies, this research unprecedentedly considers the influence of unsupported sleepers (US) configuration on VLL under cyclic loadings, elasto-plastic behaviour, and different operational dynamic conditions. The nonlinear numerical models are performed adopting an explicit finite element (FE) package, and their results are validated by field data. The outcomes are iteratively regressed by an analytical logarithmic function that cumulates permanent settlements, and by a power function factor, which innovatively extends the response of US on VLL over a long term. Results shows that at 3 million cycles (or 60 MGT) the worst configuration for 20-ton axle load is at 5 US with 5-mm gap (5,51%), whereas for 30 and 40-ton axle loads is at 5 US with 2-mm gap (1.23% and 0,89%, respectively). This indicates that the axle load affects considerably the VLL as expected, however, the US condition plays an important role to accelerate it. Based on this study, the acceptable configuration of US can be specified for a minimum effect on VLL (thresholds) and, therefore, supports the development of practical maintenance guidelines to prolong the railway track service life.
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