Geologic Slip Rates Research Articles

Strain Partitioning in the Southeastern Tibetan Plateau From Kinematic Modeling of High‐Resolution Sentinel‐1 InSAR and GNSS

AbstractFault slip rates estimated from geodetic data are being integrated into seismic hazard models. The standard approach requires modeling velocities and relative (micro‐)plate motions, which is challenging for fault‐based models. We present a new approach to directly invert strain rates to solve for slip rates and distributed strain simultaneously. We generate velocity and strain rate fields over the southeastern Tibetan Plateau, utilizing Sentinel‐1 Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar data spanning 2014–2023. We derive slip rates using block modeling and by inverting strain rates. Our results show a partitioning between localized strain on faults and distributed deformation. The direct inversion of strain rates matches the geodetic data best when incorporating distributed moment sources, accounting for a similar proportion to on‐fault sources. The direct strain methodology also aligns best with the independent geological slip rates, especially near fault tips. As high‐resolution strain rate fields become increasingly available, we recommend direct inversion as the preferred practice.

Kinematics Along the Qingchuan Fault and Deformation Pattern in the Eastern Tibetan Plateau

AbstractThe accommodation of the substantial eastward crustal motion of the Bayan Har block characterizes the dynamics of faults located at the eastern Tibetan Plateau. However, uncertainties persist concerning the manner and amount of deformation distributed on these faults, with slip senses and rates constituting critical factors. In the northeastern segment of the Longmenshan thrust zone, the contentious activity and the unknown geologic slip rate present challenges. This study, focusing on the Qingchuan fault, the predominant fault within the northeastern Longmenshan, employed satellite imagery interpretation, displaced fluvial terraces surveying, displacement measurements, and chronological analysis to comprehensively characterize its fault activity. Our investigation robustly demonstrates the Qingchuan fault has been active since the late Quaternary, and is primarily marked with a pronounced dextral slip at a rate of 0.6–1.0 mm/year. By quantitatively assessing the deformation rates of the faults at the eastern Tibetan Plateau, we propose that they sufficiently accommodate the entire eastward crustal movement of the Bayan Har block; thereby no additional deformation propagates beyond the Qingchuan fault. Furthermore, we introduce a subblock model to elucidate the regional crustal deformation pattern, wherein the eastward movement of the Bayan Har block transfers to the northeastward movement of the Bikou subblock. This movement results in reverse slip patterns for the Minjiang and Huya faults, while the Beichuan and Qingchuan faults predominantly experience dextral displacements. The complex strain partitioning within the northern Longmenshan range underscores the observed variations in slip patterns across different segments of the Longmenshan thrust zone, advancing our understanding of fault behavior and the orchestration of crustal deformation in this intricate tectonic framework.

How Does the Onset of Offset Influence Geologic Slip Rates?

Abstract Geologic slip rates are typically based on the displacement accrued by a geomorphic or stratigraphic feature and the age of the offset feature. Because slip rates are commonly calculated by dividing the displacement of a faulted marker by its age, they contain two open time intervals: the elapsed time between the age of an offset feature and the age of the earthquake that displaced the feature, and the time between the present-day and the most recent earthquake. Here, we explore the influence of including unconstrained open intervals in geologic slip rate calculations. We test the degree to which these open intervals affect geologic slip rates and their uncertainties, and we find that their influence depends primarily on mean earthquake recurrence intervals (RIs). Slip rates on faults with longer RIs, such as the Wasatch fault, can be greatly influenced by an increase of up to 20% when accounting for open intervals. In contrast, slip rates on faults with shorter RIs, such as the San Andreas fault, are only slightly influenced by the assumption that slip rates calculated over open intervals approximate those calculated over closed intervals. Our analyses indicate that faults with moderate slip rates (∼0.2–5 mm/yr) are sensitive to both open interval effects themselves, as well as methods to quantify and account for these effects. We re-evaluate how slip rates are calculated and defined in displacement–time space using published deformation records. We explore the utility of assigning a probability distribution to the initiation of offset of the oldest faulted feature and the timing of the most recent earthquake (MRE). We find that calculating geologic slip rates without using probability distributions that capture the timing of the MRE and the onset of offset of the oldest faulted feature, especially on slow-to-moderate slip rate faults, can lead to systematic underestimation of average geologic slip rates.

Disagreements in Geodetically Inferred Strain Rates in the Western US With Stress Orientations and Geologic Moment Rates

AbstractI employ an elasticity‐based method to invert a geodetically derived surface velocity field in the western US using for present‐day surface strain rate fields with uncertainties. The method uses distributed body forces in a thin elastic sheet and allows for discontinuities in velocity across creeping faults using the solution for dislocations in a thin elastic plate. I compare the strain rate fields with previously published stress orientations and moment rates from geological slip rate data and previous geodetic studies. Geologic and geodetic moment rates are calculated using slip rate and off‐fault strain rates from the 2023 US National Seismic Hazard Model (NSHM) deformation models. I find that computed total geodetic moment rates are higher than NSHM summed moment rates on faults for all regions of the western US except the highest deforming rate regions including the Western Transverse Ranges and the northern and southern San Andreas Fault (SAF) system in California. Computed geodetic moment rates are comparable to the moment rates derived from the geodetically based NSHM deformation models in all regions. I find systematic differences in orientations of maximum horizontal shortening rate and maximum horizontal compressive stress in the Pacific Northwest region and along much of the SAF system. In the Pacific Northwest, the maximum horizontal stress orientations are rotated counterclockwise 40–90° relative to the maximum horizontal strain rate directions. Along the SAF system, the maximum horizontal stresses are rotated systematically 25–40° clockwise (closer to fault normal) relative to the strain rates.

Resolving the slip-rate inconsistency of the northern Dead Sea fault.

Reported fault slip rates, a key quantity for earthquake hazard and risk analyses, have been inconsistent for the northern Dead Sea fault (DSF). Studies of offset geological and archeological structures suggest a slip rate of 4 to 6 millimeters per year, consistent with the southern DSF, whereas geodetic slip-rate estimates are only 2 to 3 millimeters per year. To resolve this inconsistency and overcome limited access to the northern DSF in Syria, we here use burst-overlap interferometric time-series analysis of satellite radar images to provide an independent slip-rate estimate of ~2.8 millimeters per year. We also show that the high geologic slip rate could, by chance, be inflated by earthquake clustering and suggest that the slip-rate decrease from the southern to northern DSF can be explained by splay faults and diffuse offshore deformation. These results suggest a microplate west of the northern DSF and a lower earthquake hazard for that part of the fault.

Robust Imaging of Fault Slip Rates in the Walker Lane and Western Great Basin From GPS Data Using a Multi‐Block Model Approach

AbstractThe Walker Lane (WL) in the western Great Basin (GB) is an active plate boundary system accommodating 10%–20% of the relative tectonic motion between the Pacific and North American plates. Its neotectonic framework is structurally complex, having hundreds of faults with various strikes, rakes, and crustal blocks with vertical axis rotation. Faults slip rates are key parameters needed to quantify seismic hazard in such tectonically active plate boundaries but modeling them in complex areas like the WL and GB is challenging. We present a new modeling strategy for estimating fault slip rates in complex zones of active crustal deformation using data from GPS networks. The technique does not rely on prior estimates of slip rates from geologic studies, and only uses data on the surface trace location, dip, and rake. The iterative framework generates large numbers of block models algorithmically from the fault database to obtain many estimates of slip rates for each fault. This reduces bias from subjective choices about how discontinuous faults connect and interact to accommodate strain. Each model iteration differs slightly in block boundary configuration, but all models honor geodetic and fault data, regularization, and are kinematically self‐consistent. The approach provides several advantages over bespoke models, including insensitivity to outlier data, realistic uncertainties, explicit mapping of off‐fault deformation, and slip rates that are more objective and independent of geologic slip rates. Comparisons to the U.S. National Seismic Hazard Model indicate that ∼80% of our geodetic slip rates agree with their geologic slip rates to within uncertainties.

Inverting Geodetic Strain Rates for Slip Deficit Rate in Complex Deforming Zones: An Application to the New Zealand Plate Boundary

AbstractThe potential for future earthquakes on faults is often inferred from inversions of geodetically derived surface velocities for locking on faults using kinematic models such as block models. This can be challenging in complex deforming zones with many closely spaced faults or where deformation is not readily described with block motions. Furthermore, surface strain rates are more directly related to coupling on faults than surface velocities. We present a methodology for estimating slip deficit rate directly from strain rate and apply it to New Zealand for the purpose of incorporating geodetic data in the 2022 revision of the New Zealand National Seismic Hazard Model. The strain rate inversions imply slightly higher slip deficit rates than the preferred geologic slip rates on sections of the major strike‐slip systems including the Alpine Fault, the Marlborough Fault System and the northern part of the North Island Fault System. Slip deficit rates are significantly lower than even the lowest geologic estimates on some strike‐slip faults in the southern North Island Fault System near Wellington. Over the entire plate boundary, geodetic slip deficit rates are systematically higher than geologic slip rates for faults slipping less than one mm/yr but lower on average for faults with slip rates between about 5 and 25 mm/yr. We show that 70%–80% of the total strain rate field can be attributed to elastic strain due to fault coupling. The remaining 20%–30% shows systematic spatial patterns of strain rate style that is often consistent with local geologic style of faulting.

Comparison of geodetic slip-deficit and geologic fault slip rates reveals that variability of elastic strain accumulation and release rates on strike-slip faults is controlled by the relative structural complexity of plate-boundary fault systems

Comparison of geodetic slip-deficit rates with geologic fault slip rates on major strike-slip faults reveals marked differences in patterns of elastic strain accumulation on tectonically isolated faults relative to faults that are embedded within more complex plate-boundary fault systems. Specifically, we show that faults that extend through tectonically complex systems characterized by multiple, mechanically complementary faults (that is, different faults that are all accommodating the same deformation field), which we refer to as high-Coefficient of Complexity (or high-CoCo) faults, exhibit ratios between geodetic and geologic rates that vary and that depend on the displacement scales over which the geologic slip rates are averaged. This indicates that elastic strain accumulation rates on these faults change significantly through time, which in turn suggests that the rates of ductile shear beneath the seismogenic portion of faults also vary through time. This is consistent with models in which mechanically complementary faults trade off slip in time and space in response to varying mechanical and stress conditions on the different component faults. In marked contrast, structurally isolated (or low-CoCo) faults exhibit geologic slip rates that are similar to geodetic slip-deficit rates, regardless of the displacement and time scales over which the slip rates are averaged. Such faults experience relatively constant geologic fault slip rates as well as constant strain accumulation rate (aside from brief, rapid post-seismic intervals). This suggests that low-CoCo faultsd "keep up" with the rate imposed by the relative plate-boundary condition, since they are the only structures in their respective plate-boundary zone that can effectively accommodate the imposed steady plate motion. We hypothesize that the discrepancies between the small-displacement average geologic slip rates and geodetic slip-deficit rates may provide a means of assessing a switch of modes for some high-CoCo faults, transitioning from a slow mode to a faster mode, or vice versa. If so, the differences between geologic slip rates and geodetic slip-deficit rates on high-CoCo faults may indicate changes in a fault's behavior that could be used to refine next-generation probabilistic seismic hazard assessments.

Middle Miocene Onset of the Litang Fault System Records Kinematic Change in Eastern Tibet

AbstractThe ∼400‐km‐long Litang fault system (LTFS) is a major intracontinental strike‐slip fault inside the Chuandian block, eastern Tibet, but its evolution and role in accommodating the India‐Asia convergence remain poorly known. Structural analysis shows that the LTFS splits into 5 strands as a left‐lateral, right‐stepping en‐echelon pattern formed under NW‐directed compression, subsequently reactivated by transtensive faults under NNE‐directed extension. Displaced geological and morphological markers yield a cumulative left‐lateral offset of 28.9–42.8 km. Inverse thermal‐history modeling of thermochronological data of the faulted rocks reveal accelerated cooling at 38–35 Ma, 16–13 Ma, and 7–5 Ma. The late Eocene rapid cooling is ascribed to the reactivation of the Garze‐Litang suture. Rapid cooling events at 16–13 Ma and 7–5 Ma record the onset of transpression and transtension of the LTFS, respectively, yielding a geologic slip rate of 2.6 ± 0.7 mm/yr. Both bifurcated geometry and slow slip rate of the LTFS since 16–13 Ma indicate diffuse deformation inside the Chuandian block, contrasting with strain localized on fast‐slip strike‐slip faults on the block margins. This implies a significant kinematic transition in the middle Miocene, such that the extrusion of the segmented mega‐blocks has been accommodated by both localized and distributed deformation in eastern Tibet. This tectonic transition could be explained by a change in lithospheric rheology from an earlier rigid state to a viscous state underneath the Chuandian block due to thermal weakening of the lower crust. We thus reconcile the end‐member geodynamic models of block extrusion and lower crustal flow in late Cenozoic times.

Upper Plate and Subduction Interface Deformation Models in the 2022 Revision of the Aotearoa New Zealand National Seismic Hazard Model

ABSTRACT As part of the 2022 revision of the Aotearoa New Zealand National Seismic Hazard Model (NZ NSHM 2022), deformation models were constructed for the upper plate faults and subduction interfaces that impact ground-shaking hazard in New Zealand. These models provide the locations, geometries, and slip rates of the earthquake-producing faults in the NZ NSHM 2022. For upper plate faults, two deformation models were developed: a geologic model derived directly from the fault geometries and geologic slip rates in the NZ Community Fault Model version 1.0 (NZ CFM v.1.0); and a geodetic model that uses the same faults and fault geometries and derives fault slip-deficit rates by inverting geodetic strain rates for back slip on those specified faults. The two upper plate deformation models have similar total moment rates, but the geodetic model has higher slip rates on low-slip-rate faults, and the geologic model has higher slip rates on higher-slip-rate faults. Two deformation models are developed for the Hikurangi–Kermadec subduction interface. The Hikurangi–Kermadec geometry is a linear blend of the previously published interface models. Slip-deficit rates on the Hikurangi portion of the deformation model are updated from the previously published block models, and two end member models are developed to represent the alternate hypotheses that the interface is either frictionally locked or creeping at the trench. The locking state in the Kermadec portion is less well constrained, and a single slip-deficit rate model is developed based on plate convergence rate and coupling considerations. This single Kermadec realization is blended with each of the two Hikurangi slip-deficit rate models to yield two overall Hikurangi–Kermadec deformation models. The Puysegur subduction interface deformation model is based on geometry taken directly from the NZ CFM v.1.0, and a slip-deficit rate derived from published geodetic plate convergence rate and interface coupling estimates.

Geological slip rate study on Renun Segment of Sumatran Fault in Dolok Sanggul area, North Sumatra using UAV photogrammetry and DEMNAS

Renun Segment is located in the center of the Sumatran Fault, parallel to the Famous Toba Lake Volcano. The fault cuts the thick, and vast Young Toba Tuffs (YTT) deposited ∼74,000 years ago during the supervolcano eruptions. It shows a series of noticeable dextral strike-slip offsets of the river valleys that deeply incised the tuffs. Our study will determine the geological slip rate in this location by measuring river-valley offsets in the Dolok Sanggul area using UAV photogrammetry and DEMNAS images. Detail morphology shows a fault lineament, monocline, and anticline structure. Three rivers about a hundred meters deep cross perpendicular to the fault line and have 585±83 meters dextral offset. This amount is only half of the other dextral offsets on the northern and southern parts of the site. Hence, the slip rate is also a half slower, approximately 7±1 mm/yr. This indicates that the other half of the slip budget is accommodated by the Samosir Fault in the center of Toba Lake.

Mechanical Analysis of Fault Slip Rate Sites within the San Gorgonio Pass Region, Southern California USA

Earthquake hazard assessments rely on observations from the field and geophysical data that provide fault slip rate estimates at specific sites and inform the geometry of active faults; however, uncertainty remains for both slip rate and geometry. Furthermore, incompatibilities between inferred fault geometry and geologic slip rates arise within crustal deformation models where model and geologic slip rates disagree. The impact of these incompatibilities may be local to sites or have wider effect on the fault system deformation. Here, we investigate the roles of structural position of sites and uncertainty of slip rates using three-dimensional mechanical models that simulate deformation across many earthquake cycles along southern San Andreas fault near the San Gorgonio Pass in California. Within the models, the impact of strike-slip rate sites on the fault system depends on their structural positions. Slip rates at sites along short and segmented faults has lesser impact on the slip along the fault system than either slip rates at sites along longer faults or at sites within fault branches. Consequently, inaccuracies in the slip rate estimates used for seismic hazard assessment may have differing impacts on the fault system depending on location and structural position of the slip rates. Fault branches along strike-slip faults warrant detailed investigation not only because these areas have high spatial variability of slip rate and accrue nearby off-fault deformation but also because changes in slip rates along branches has larger impact on deformation along fault system than other sites. Lack of data or large uncertainty in slip rate data from fault branches can affect our ability to accurately assess seismic hazard of the region.

Spatial and Temporal Analysis of Geologic Slip Rates, Cucamonga Fault, California, USA: Implications for Along‐Strike Applications and Multi‐Fault Rupture

AbstractTo constrain fault processes and hazard, fault slip rates may be extrapolated over different fault lengths or time intervals. Here, we investigate slip rates for the Cucamonga Fault (CF). The CF is located at the junction of the Transverse Range fault system with the San Andreas and San Jacinto Faults, and it is hypothesized to connect with these faults, promoting the propagation of large, multi‐fault earthquakes. Previous work has shown that CF displacements on late Quaternary alluvial fan surfaces are highly variable along strike. We present two new 10Be surface exposure ages from depth profiles on the alluvial fans. Slip rates are consistent with a rate of 1.4 ± 0.3 m/kyr over time intervals of ∼20, ∼30, and ∼40 kyr. If the CF participates in multi‐fault ruptures, then these earthquakes occur either rarely or with sufficient regularity to maintain apparently steady rates over multiple intervals. We also explore along‐strike fault displacement variability using a calibrated morphological model. The model successfully reproduces scarp profiles and indicates that fault displacement variability can be explained in part by scarp age but not uplift rate. We infer that both erosion by ephemeral gullying and distributed deformation contribute to fault displacement variability, although both are difficult to detect confidently without excavations across the scarp. These investigations show that better characterization of cumulative‐slip variability along strike may improve accuracy and precision of slip rates. Slip rates that do not consider epistemic uncertainties may not be suitable for extrapolation over longer fault sections.

Improved Geological Slip Rate Estimations in the Complex Alhama de Murcia Fault Zone (SE Iberia) and Its Implications for Fault Behavior

AbstractFault slip rate is one of the most crucial parameters to characterize earthquake occurrence in fault‐based seismic hazard assessments (SHA). Accordingly, paleoseismic studies have increasingly focused on constraining this parameter in active faults worldwide. We present a comprehensive paleoseismic study in the Alhama de Murcia Fault (AMF), one of the most active faults in SE Spain and source of destructing earthquakes such as the 2011 Mw 5.2 Lorca event. Contrasting with previous studies, we integrate paleoseismic data from four fault strands in the AMF and, based on trench slip analysis and numerical dates, we derive slip rate estimates of each strand over the whole transect and assess their time variability. The AMF has a minimum net slip rate between 1.35+0.16/−0.10 and 1.64+0.16/−0.11 mm/yr for the past 18 ± 1 to 15.2 ± 1.1 ka. These results prove the importance of accounting for the complete sections of a geological structure as they are almost twice the previous estimates for a single fault branch. Slip rate variability is identified in the AMF, with cyclic acceleration‐quiescence patterns that could be related to stress field changes driven by fault interaction or synchronicity with neighboring faults (e.g., Carrascoy). We hope that the data presented here motivates their inclusion into forthcoming fault‐based SHAs. In this regard, limitations related to the lack of paleoseismic data for one fault strand, along with poor characterization of the strike component of slip and insufficient age control of the units for another strand are highlighted and need to be accounted for by modelers.

A Fault-Based Crustal Deformation Model with Deep Driven Dislocation Sources for the 2023 Update to the U.S. National Seismic Hazard Model

Abstract A fault-based crustal deformation model with deep driven dislocation sources is applied to estimate long-term on-fault slip rates and off-fault moment rate distribution in the western United States (WUS) for the 2023 update to the National Seismic Hazard Model (NSHM). This model uses the method of Zeng and Shen (2017) to invert for slip rate and strain-rate parameters based on inputs from Global Positioning System (GPS) velocities and geologic slip-rate constraints. The model connects adjacent major fault segments in California and the Cascadia subduction zone to form blocks that extend to the boundaries of the study area. Faults within the blocks are obtained from the NSHM geologic fault section database. The model slip rates are determined using a least-squares inversion with a normalized chi-square of 6.6. I also apply a time-dependent correction called “ghost transient” effect to account for the viscoelastic responses from large historic earthquakes along the San Andreas fault and Cascadia subduction zone. Major discrepancies between model slip rates and geologic slip rates along the San Andreas fault, for example, from the Cholame to the Mojave and San Bernardino segments of the San Andreas, are well reduced after the ghost transient correction is applied to GPS velocities. The off-fault moment rate distribution is consistent with regional tectonics and seismicity patterns with a total rate of 1.6×1019 N·m/yr for the WUS.

Western U.S. Deformation Models for the 2023 Update to the U.S. National Seismic Hazard Model

Abstract This report describes geodetic and geologic information used to constrain deformation models of the 2023 update to the National Seismic Hazard Model (NSHM), a set of deformation models to interpret these data, and their implications for earthquake rates in the western United States. Recent updates provide a much larger data set of Global Positioning System crustal velocities than used in the 2014 NSHM, as well as hundreds of new faults considered as active sources for the 2023 NSHM. These data are interpreted by four geodetic models of deformation that estimate fault slip rates and their uncertainties together with off-fault moment release rates. Key innovations in the 2023 NSHM relative to past practice include (1) the addition of two new (in addition to two existing) deformation models, (2) the revision and expansion of the geologic slip rate database, (3) accounting for fault creep through development of a creep-rate model that is employed by the four deformation models, and (4) accounting for time-dependent earthquake-cycle effects through development of viscoelastic models of the earthquake cycle along the San Andreas fault and the Cascadia subduction zone. The effort includes development of a geologic deformation model that complements the four geodetic models. The current deformation models provide a new assessment of outstanding discrepancies between geologic and geodetic slip rates, at the same time highlighting the need for both geologic and geodetic slip rates to robustly inform the earthquake rate model.

Western U.S. Geologic Deformation Model for Use in the U.S. National Seismic Hazard Model 2023

Abstract Fault geometry and slip rates are key input data for geologic deformation models, which are a fundamental component of probabilistic seismic hazard analyses (PSHAs). However, geologic sources for PSHA have traditionally been limited to faults with field-based slip rate constraints, which results in underrepresentation of known, but partially characterized, active faults. Here, we evaluate fault geometries and geologic fault slip rates for the western United States to construct a new geologic deformation model for the U.S. National Seismic Hazard Model 2023 update (NSHM23). In previous NSHM iterations, only faults with published geologic slip rates were included. In the NSHM23 fault sections database compilation, this inclusion criterion was expanded to include faults without known slip rates. In this updated geologic deformation model, preferred slip rates and associated uncertainty distributions are incorporated for faults with slip rates derived from field studies. For faults without site-specific slip rates, we evaluate a suite of uncertainty distributions derived from broad slip rate categories in the U.S. Geological Survey Quaternary Fault and Fold Database. Preferred slip rate distributions are selected via comparison with geodetic strain rates in tectonic subregions. The resultant moment of the geologic deformation model is generally in deficit compared with the geodetic moment within each region. Primary advances in the NSHM23 geologic deformation model include the following: (1) slip rates are presented as preferred values with uncertainties rather than single values; (2) the representation of the western U.S. active fault network is more complete; and (3) the geologic deformation model leverages geodetic information to assess regional constraints on geologic fault slip rates.

Viscoelastic Fault-Based Model of Crustal Deformation for the 2023 Update to the U.S. National Seismic Hazard Model

Abstract The 2023 update to the National Seismic Hazard (NSHM) model is informed by several deformation models that furnish geodetically estimated fault slip rates. Here I describe a fault-based model that permits estimation of long-term slip rates on discrete faults and the distribution of off-fault moment release. It is based on quantification of the earthquake cycle on a viscoelastic model of the seismogenic upper crust and ductile lower crust and mantle. I apply it to a large dataset of horizontal and vertical Global Positioning System (GPS) interseismic velocities in the western United States, resulting in long-term slip rates on more than 1000 active faults defined for the NSHM. A reasonable fit to the GPS dataset is achieved with a set of slip rates designed to lie strictly within a priori geologic slip rate bounds. Time-dependent effects implemented via a “ghost transient” have a profound effect on slip rate estimation and tend to raise calculated slip rates along the northern and southern San Andreas fault by up to several mm/yr.

A Dense Block Model Representing Western Continental United States Deformation for the 2023 Update to the National Seismic Hazard Model

Abstract Seismic hazard assessment, such as the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) National Seismic Hazard Model (NSHM), relies on estimates of fault slip rate based on geology and/or geodetic observations such as the Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS), including the Global Positioning System. Geodetic fault slip rates may be estimated within a 3D spherical block model, in which the crust is divided into microplates bounded by mapped faults; fault slip rates are determined by the relative rotations of adjacent microplates. Uncertainty in selecting appropriate block-bounding faults and in forming closed microplates has limited the interpretability of block models for seismic hazard modeling. By introducing an automated block closure algorithm and regularizing the resulting densely spaced block model with total variation regularization, I develop the densest and most complete block model of the western continental United States to date. The model includes 853 blocks bounded by 1017 geologically identified fault sections from the USGS NSHM Fault Sections database. Microplate rotations and fault slip rates are constrained by 4979 GNSS velocities and 1243 geologic slip rates. I identify a regularized solution that fits the GNSS velocity field with a root mean square misfit of 1.9 mm/yr and reproduces 57% of geologic slip rates within reported geologic uncertainty and model sensitivity, consistent with other geodetic-based models in this Focus Section. This block model includes slip on faults that are not included in the USGS NSHM Fault sections database (but are required to form closed blocks) for an estimate of “off-fault” deformation of 3.62×1019 N·m/yr, 56% of the total calculated moment accumulation rate in the model.

Simplifying complex fault data for systems-level analysis: Earthquake geology inputs for U.S. NSHM 2023

As part of the U.S. National Seismic Hazard Model (NSHM) update planned for 2023, two databases were prepared to more completely represent Quaternary-active faulting across the western United States: the NSHM23 fault sections database (FSD) and earthquake geology database (EQGeoDB). In prior iterations of NSHM, fault sections were included only if a field-measurement-derived slip rate was estimated along a given fault. By expanding this inclusion criteria, we were able to assess a larger set of faults for use in NSHM23. The USGS Quaternary Fault and Fold Database served as a guide for assessing possible additions to the NSHM23 FSD. Reevaluating available data from published sources yielded an increase of fault sections from ~650 faults in NSHM18 to ~1,000 faults proposed for use in NSHM23. EQGeoDB, a companion dataset linked to NSHM23 FSD, contains geologic slip rate estimates for fault sections included in FSD. Together, these databases serve as common input data used in deformation modeling, earthquake rupture forecasting, and additional downstream uses in NSHM development.