Geographic Range Research Articles

The Impacts of Climate Change on the Emergence and Reemergence of Mosquito-Borne Diseases in Temperate Zones: An Umbrella Review Protocol.

Mosquito-borne diseases represent a global public health concern and are responsible for over 700 000 deaths globally every year. Additionally, many mosquito species have undergone a dramatic global expansion due to various factors, including climate change, and forecasts indicate that mosquito populations will persist in dispersing beyond their present geographic range, namely in temperate climates. The research literature on this topic has grown in recent years, including some systematic evidence synthesis. However, to provide a comprehensive overview of this growing literature needed for policy action, a summary of this evidence, including existing systematic reviews, is required. This study aims to undertake an umbrella review that explores the impacts of climate change on the emergence and reemergence of diseases transmitted by mosquitoes in temperate zones and the publication of the protocol is a fundamental step to ensure the credibility, transparency and reproducibility of this research. Studies published in scientific journals indexed by PubMed, EMBASE, Cochrane Library, Epistemonikos, and Web of Science Core Collection to be included in this umbrella review will meet the following criteria: the topic of study (climate change and mosquito-borne diseases), regions (temperate zones), study designs (systematic reviews and meta-analysis), language (any) and date (since inception until December 31st, 2023). Titles and abstracts from selected articles will be evaluated by two authors independently and any discrepancy will be resolved through consensus or, if not possible, through a third author. The data will be extracted, and the risk of bias will be evaluated. The quality of the methodology of the included reviews will be assessed using AMSTAR 2. A narrative synthesis will examine the included systematic reviews. The quality of evidence for all outcomes will be judged using the Grading of Recommendations Assessment, Development and Evaluation working group methodology.

Divergent lineages in a young species: The case of datilillo (Yucca valida), a broadly distributed plant from the Baja California Peninsula.

Globally, barriers triggered by climatic changes have caused habitat fragmentation and population allopatric divergence. Across North America, oscillations during the Quaternary have played important roles in the distribution of wildlife. Notably, diverse plant species from the Baja California Peninsula in western North America, isolated during the Pleistocene glacial-interglacial cycles, exhibit strong genetic structure and highly concordant divergent lineages across their ranges. A representative plant genus of the peninsula is Yucca, with Y. valida having the widest range. Although a dominant species, it has an extensive distribution discontinuity between 26° N and 27° N, suggesting restricted gene flow. Moreover, historical distribution models indicate the absence of an area with suitable conditions for the species during the Last Interglacial, making it an interesting model for studying genetic divergence. We assembled 4411 SNPs from 147 plants of Y. valida throughout its range to examine its phylogeography to identify the number of genetic lineages, quantify their genetic differentiation, reconstruct their demographic history and estimate the age of the species. Three allopatric lineages were identified based on the SNPs. Our analyses support that genetic drift is the driver of genetic differentiation among these lineages. We estimated an age of less than 1 million years for the common ancestor of Y. valida and its sister species. Habitat fragmentation caused by climatic changes, low dispersal, and an extensive geographical range gap acted as cumulative mechanisms leading to allopatric divergence in Y. valida.

Antibiotic resistance and virulence characteristics of Vibrio vulnificus isolated from Ningbo, China

BackgroundVibrio vulnificus (V. vulnificus) is a deadly opportunistic human pathogen with high mortality worldwide. Notably, climate warming is likely to expand its geographical range and increase the infection risk for individuals in coastal regions. However, due to the absence of comprehensive surveillance systems, the emergence and characteristics of clinical V. vulnificus isolates remain poorly understood in China.MethodsIn this study, we investigate antibiotic resistance, virulence including serum resistance, and hemolytic ability, as well as molecular characteristics of 21 V. vulnificus isolates collected from patients in Ningbo, China.Results and discussionThe results indicate that all isolates have been identified as potential virulent vcg C type, with the majority (16 of 21) classified as 16S rRNA B type. Furthermore, these isolates exhibit a high level of antibiotic resistance, with 66.7% resistance to more than three antibiotics and 61.9% possessing a multiple antibiotic resistance (MAR) index exceeding 0.2. In terms of virulence, most isolates were categorized as grade 1 in serum resistance, with one strain, S12, demonstrating intermediate sensitivity in serum resistance, belonging to grade 3. Whole genome analysis disclosed the profiles of antibiotic resistance genes (ARGs) and virulence factors (VFs) in these strains. The strains share substantial VF genes associated with adherence, iron uptake, antiphagocytosis, toxin, and motility. In particular, key VFs such as capsule (CPS), lipopolysaccharide (LPS), and multifunctional autoprocessing repeats-in-toxin (MARTX) are prevalent in all isolates. Specifically, S12 possesses a notably high number of VF genes (672), which potentially explains its higher virulence. Additionally, these strains shared six ARGs, namely, PBP3, adeF, varG, parE, and CRP, which likely determine their antibiotic resistance phenotype.ConclusionOverall, our study provides valuable baseline information for clinical tracking, prevention, control, and treatment of V. vulnificus infections.

Adaptive interventions for advancing in situ wildlife disease management.

There is a critical need for advancements in disease management strategies for wildlife, but free-living animals pose numerous challenges that can hinder progress. Most disease management attempts involve fixed interventions accompanied by post hoc outcome assessments focused on success or failure. Though these approaches have led to valuable management advances, there are limitations to both the rate of advancement and amount of information that can be gained. As such, strategies that support more rapid progress are required. Sarcoptic mange, caused by epidermal infection with Sarcoptes scabiei mites, is a globally emerging and re-emerging panzootic that exemplifies this problem. The bare-nosed wombat (Vombatus ursinus), a marsupial endemic to southeastern Australia, is impacted by sarcoptic mange throughout its geographic range and enhanced disease management capabilities are needed to improve upon existing in situ methods. We sought to advance in situ wildlife disease management for sarcoptic mange in free-living bare-nosed wombats, implementing an adaptive approach using fluralaner (Bravecto, MSD Animal Health) and a structured process of learning and method-optimisation. By using surveillance of treated wombats to inform real-time management changes, we have demonstrated the efficacy of topically administered fluralaner at 45 and 85 mg/kg against sarcoptic mange. Importantly, we observed variation in the effects of 45 mg/kg doses, but through our adaptive approach found that 85 mg/kg doses consistently reduced mange severity. Through modifying our surveillance program, we also identified individual-level variation in wombat observability and used this to quantify the level of surveillance needed to assess long-term management success. Our adaptive intervention represents the first report of sarcoptic mange management with fluralaner in free-living wildlife and evaluation of its efficacy in situ. This study illustrates how adapting interventions in real time can advance wildlife disease management and may be applicable to accelerating in situ improvements for other host-pathogen systems.

Combining distribution modelling and phylogeography to understand present, past and future of an endangered spider

BackgroundUnderstanding how endangered species respond to climatic changes is fundamental for their conservation. Due to its restricted geographic range, its sensitivity to the ongoing global warming and its continuing decline, the Southwestern-Alpine endemic wolf spider Vesubia jugorum is currently classified as Endangered in the IUCN Red List. Here, we combined species distribution modelling (SDM) and phylogeographic inference to describe the present, the past and the future of this species in light of the mtDNA genetic structure of extant populations.ResultsPhylogenetic and network analyses show a high level of genetic differentiation and a strong genetic structure of the populations, likely explicable by a long history of isolation and survival in separate refugia. The SDM projection into past climatic conditions supports these results by showing a smaller distribution range compared to present, mostly restricted to the Maritime and Ligurian Alps, which possibly served as main refugium. Future forecast shows a significant shift in the bioclimatic range towards higher altitudes and latitudes, with a drastic decrease of habitat suitability in the central and south-eastern parts of the range, with consequent general loss of haplotype diversity.ConclusionSDM and phylogeographic inference support the hypothesis that the current distribution and the genetic structure of the extant populations mirror the survival in situ of Vesubia jugorum across repeated glacial and interglacial phases, in line with the ‘long-term stability hypothesis’. Future predictions show a significant shift in the bioclimatic range that V. jugorum will be likely unable to track, with profound impact on its long-term survival and its genetic diversity. Our considerations have implication for conservation genetics, highlighting the pivotal role of the transboundary protected areas of the SW-Alps in promoting conservation efforts for this species.

Clinal Variation in Short Tandem Repeats Linked to Gene Expression in Sunflower (Helianthus annuus L.)

Short tandem repeat (STR) variation is rarely explored as a contributor to adaptive evolution. An intriguing mechanism involving STRs suggests that STRs function as “tuning knobs” of adaptation whereby stepwise changes in STR allele length have stepwise effects on phenotypes. Previously, we tested the predictions of the “tuning knob” model at the gene expression level by conducting an RNA-Seq experiment on natural populations of common sunflower (Helianthus annuus L.) transecting a well-defined cline from Kansas to Oklahoma. We identified 479 STRs with significant allele length effects on gene expression (eSTRs). In this study, we expanded the range to populations further north and south of the focal populations and used a targeted approach to study the relationship between STR allele length and gene expression in five selected eSTRs. Seeds from 96 individuals from six natural populations of sunflower from Nebraska and Texas were grown in a common garden. The individuals were genotyped at the five eSTRs, and gene expression was quantified with qRT-PCR. Linear regression models identified that eSTR length in comp26672 was significantly correlated with gene expression. Further, the length of comp26672 eSTR was significantly correlated with latitude across the range from Nebraska to Texas. The eSTR locus comp26672 was located in the CHUP1 gene, a gene associated with chloroplast movement in response to light intensity, which suggests a potential adaptive role for the eSTR locus. Collectively, our results from this targeted study show a consistent relationship between allele length and gene expression in some eSTRs across a broad geographical range in sunflower and suggest that some eSTRs may contribute to adaptive traits in common sunflower.

Genetic Variation among Rare Florida Endemic Hymenocallis henryae Populations and the Implication for Conservation and Management

Hymenocallis henryae is a rare, charismatic spider lily endemic to the Florida panhandle. Currently under review to determine if listing under the Endangered Species Act is warranted, this species has undescribed genetic diversity, information crucial to the listing process. We conducted field observations of 21 historic populations across the species’ geographical range and performed genomic analyses of 279 individuals from 19 extant populations. Most populations had fewer than 40 individuals, while populations with >100 individuals were found exclusively on managed lands. Genetic diversity was uniformly low within populations (HE: 0.074–0.093), with low to moderate inbreeding coefficients (FIS: 0.068–0.431). Genetic differentiation was relatively low among most populations (FST: 0–0.098), although there was statistical support for isolation by distance. In addition, we found high genetic similarity and lack of population structure across the species range. Clonal propagation through fused bulbs is a common reproductive strategy. We confirmed current threats (habitat change, residential development, fire suppression) and identified several coastal populations threatened by sea level rise. It is recommended to continue with in situ protection and management as well as the establishment of ex situ living collections to preserve populations most at risk of extirpation from habitat loss and degradation.

Evaluation of the In2Care Mosquito Station at low deployment density: a field study to manage Aedes aegypti and Culex quinquefasciatus (Diptera: Culicidae) in North Central Florida.

In the last 2 decades, there has been an increase in the geographic range and frequency of vector-borne diseases. Management of mosquito populations has become challenging due to increasing rates of resistance to existing insecticidal products and formulations. Several alternative tools have emerged to suppress or replace mosquito populations. One of these tools is the In2Care Mosquito Station (In2Care station). This dual-action station contains the insect growth regulator pyriproxyfen which disrupts the development of immatures and the entomopathogenic fungus Beauveria bassiana (B. bassiana)strain GHA which kills exposed adult mosquitoes. The In2Care stations have previously been shown to effectively control Aedes aegypti in field settings at a density of 6 stations/acre rather than the label-recommended 10 stations/acre. To further test the efficacy of low station density deployment, we deployed In2Care stations in the Pleasant Street Historic District of Gainesville, Florida, at a density of 3 stations/acre over a period of 2 years in the presence or absence of ground larvicidal applications. The deployment of stations resulted in no measurable impact on Ae. aegypti and Culex quinquefasciatus adult or immature abundance suggesting that the low-density deployment of In2Care stations is insufficient to reduce Ae. aegypti and Cu. quinquefasciatus abundance within treatment areas.

The influence of biotic and abiotic factors on the bacterial microbiome of gentoo penguins (Pygoscelis papua) in their natural environment

The microbiome is a key factor in the health, well-being, and success of vertebrates, contributing to the adaptive capacity of the host. However, the impact of geographic and biotic factors that may affect the microbiome of wild birds in polar environments is not well defined. To address this, we determined the bacterial 16S rRNA gene sequence profiles in faecal samples from pygoscelid penguin populations in the Scotia Arc, focusing on gentoo penguins. This mesopredatory group breeds in defined colonies across a wide geographic range. Since diet could influence microbiome structure, we extracted dietary profiles from a eukaryotic 18S rRNA gene sequence profile. The bacterial microbiome profiles were considered in the context of a diverse set of environmental and ecological measures. Integrating wide geographic sampling with bacterial 16S and eukaryotic 18S rRNA gene sequencing of over 350 faecal samples identified associations between the microbiome profile and a suite of geographic and ecological factors. Microbiome profiles differed according to host species, colony identity, distance between colonies, and diet. Interestingly there was also a relationship between the proportion of host DNA (in relation to total 18S rRNA gene signal) and the microbiome, which may reflect gut passage time. Colony identity provided the strongest association with differences in microbiome profiles indicating that local factors play a key role in the microbiome structure of these polar seabirds. This may reflect the influence of local transfer of microbes either via faecal-oral routes, during chick feeding or other close contact events. Other factors including diet and host species also associate with variation in microbiome profile, and in at least some locations, the microbiome composition varies considerably between individuals. Given the variation in penguin microbiomes associated with diverse factors there is potential for disruption of microbiome associations at a local scale that could influence host health, productivity, and immunological competence. The microbiome represents a sensitive indicator of changing conditions, and the implications of any changes need to be considered in the wider context of environmental change and other stressors.

Novel phylogenomic inference and 'Out of Asia' biogeography of cobras, coral snakes and their allies.

Estimation of evolutionary relationships among lineages that rapidly diversified can be challenging, and, in such instances, inaccurate or unresolved phylogenetic estimates can lead to erroneous conclusions regarding historical geographical ranges of lineages. One example underscoring this issue has been the historical challenge posed by untangling the biogeographic origin of elapoid snakes, which includes numerous dangerously venomous species as well as species not known to be dangerous to humans. The worldwide distribution of this lineage makes it an ideal group for testing hypotheses related to historical faunal exchanges among the many continents and other landmasses occupied by contemporary elapoid species. We developed a novel suite of genomic resources, included worldwide sampling, and inferred a robust estimate of evolutionary relationships, which we leveraged to quantitatively estimate geographical range evolution through the deep-time history of this remarkable radiation. Our phylogenetic and biogeographical estimates of historical ranges definitively reject a lingering former 'Out of Africa' hypothesis and support an 'Out of Asia' scenario involving multiple faunal exchanges between Asia, Africa, Australasia, the Americas and Europe.

Turkey vultures tune their airspeed to changing air density.

Animals must tune their physical performance to changing environmental conditions, and the breadth of environmental tolerance may contribute to delineating the geographic range of a species. A common environmental challenge that flying animals face is the reduction of air density at high elevation and the reduction in the effectiveness of lift production that accompanies it. As a species, turkey vultures (Cathartes aura) inhabit a >3000 m elevation range, and fly considerably higher, necessitating that they accommodate for a 27% change in air density (0.890 to 1.227 kg m-3) through behavior, physiology or biomechanics. We predicted that birds flying at high elevation would maintain aerodynamic lift performance behaviorally via higher flight speeds, rather than increases in power output or local phenotypic adaptation. We used three-dimensional videography to track turkey vultures flying at three elevations, and data supported the hypothesized negative relationship between median airspeed and air density. Additionally, neither the ratio of horizontal speed to sinking speed nor flapping behavior varied with air density.

Detection of Bombali Virus in a Mops condylurus Bat in Kyela, Tanzania

Bombali virus (BOMV) is a novel Orthoebolavirus that has been detected in free-tailed bats in Sierra Leone, Guinea, Kenya, and Mozambique. We screened our collection of 349 free-tailed bat lungs collected in Côte d’Ivoire and Tanzania for BOMV RNA and tested 228 bat blood samples for BOMV antibodies. We did not detect BOMV-specific antibodies but found BOMV RNA in a Mops condylurus bat from Tanzania, marking the first detection of an ebolavirus in this country. Our findings further expand the geographic range of BOMV and support M. condylurus’ role as a natural BOMV host.

A New Endemic Locality of Dermacentor reticulatus in Central–Southern Poland and Its Potential Epidemiological Implications

Dermacentor reticulatus (Acari: Ixodidae) is an important arthropod vector in medical and veterinary contexts. Its geographic range is divided into western and eastern populations separated by a “Dermacentor-free zone” in central Poland. Recent faunistic studies showed a new endemic locality of the species in Upper Silesia to the west of the Vistula River (central–southern Poland) and its co-occurrence with I. ricinus. The prevalence of five tick-borne pathogens (TBPs), e.g., B. burgdorferi s.l., Bartonella spp., Rickettsia spp., and Babesia spp., in the ticks was assessed with polymerase chain reaction (PCR) methods. The molecular studies revealed the presence of Rickettsia spp. in 23.8% of the D. reticulatus specimens. In turn, 94.1% of the I. ricinus adults were infected with B. burgdorferi s.l., 11.7 % with Babesia spp., and 5.8% with Rickettsia spp. Coinfections with two TBPs were noted in 17.6% of the I. ricinus. These findings highlight not only the risk of infestation by both tick species in an area previously considered Dermacentor-free, but also the high prevalence of TBPs in the study area. Increased focus on medical and veterinary services appears necessary to diagnose and prevent tick-borne diseases in this region.

Genomic and culture-based analysis of Cyclaneusma minus in New Zealand provides evidence for multiple morphotypes

Cyclaneusma needle cast, caused by Cyclaneusma minus, affects Pinus species world wide. Previous studies suggested the presence of two distinct morphotypes in New Zealand, ‘verum’ and ‘simile’. Traditional mycological analyses revealed a third morphotype with clear differences in colony morphology and cardinal growth rates at varying temperatures. Genome sequencing of eight C. minus isolates provided further evidence of the existence of a third morphotype, named as ‘novus’ in this study. To further analyse these morphotypes, we predicted candidate effector proteins for all eight isolates, and also characterized a cell-death eliciting effector family, Ecp32, which is present in other pine phytopathogens. In concordance with their distinct classification into three different morphotypes, the number of Ecp32 family members differed, with patterns of pseudogenization in the ‘simile’ morphotype, and some members being found exclusively either in the ‘simile’ or ‘verum’ morphotypes. We also showed that the Ecp32 family proteins trigger cell death in non-host Nicotiana species, and, as previously demonstrated in other plant pathogens, the Ecp32 family proteins in C. minus adopt a β-trefoil fold. These analyses provide further evidence that the three morphotypes might be distinct species that need formal descriptions. Understanding the geographical range of different Cyclaneusma species and variations in virulence and pathogenicity will provide a better understanding of pine needle diseases and enable the development of more durable methods to control this disease.

Transforming Education in Coastal Indonesia: A Survey of Digital Literacy and Competence Among Educators

This research explores the digital literacy and competence of educators in coastal areas of Indonesia, focusing on technology access, usage patterns, and challenges in integrating digital tools into teaching practices. Utilizing a quantitative survey method, data was collected from 235 educators teaching in coastal area schools. The study found a generally positive trend in technology access, with reliable availability of computers, laptops, and internet connection supporting educators' professional tasks. However, gaps in access to up-to-date software highlight the need for improved resources and support to ensure equitable technology use. Educators demonstrated a strong trend towards integrating digital tools in lesson planning and communication with students. Despite this, the uneven adoption of these tools suggests a need for broader and more equitable technology integration. Significant challenges include difficulties in keeping up with technological advancements and managing technical issues, emphasizing the need for comprehensive professional development and targeted training on advanced digital tools and troubleshooting. While the study provides valuable insights, it is limited by its small sample size and geographic focus, potentially not fully representing the diverse experiences of educators across Indonesia. Future research should expand the sample size and geographic range to offer a more comprehensive understanding of technology integration challenges and to support more effective recommendations for enhancing technology use in education.

Genetic variability and population genetic structure in the Caucasian Parsley Frog, Pelodytes caucasicus (Boulenger, 1896) based on microsatellite markers

The Caucasian Parsley Frog, Pelodytes caucasicus (Boulenger, 1896), is endemic to Caucasia, and its population is decreasing. Here, we present information on the genetic structure and diversity of populations from four provinces of Türkiye (Giresun, Trabzon, Rize, and Artvin) using microsatellite markers. Despite their small geographic range, the species’ populations showed moderate genetic differentiation, which could be a result of rapid genetic drift. Our results show that Trabzon and Giresun populations are genetically different from those of Rize and Artvin. We found considerably low genetic diversity in Artvin, Trabzon, and Giresun populations. The inbreeding co-efficient is also high in those localities (HO<HE). Despite low genetic diversity and a high inbreeding coefficient, we could not find any sign of a genetic bottleneck.

First record of Aegyptobatus (Hybodontiformes: Distobatidae) in the Cretaceous Alcântara formation (?Albian-Cenomanian) of Maranhão, Northeastern Brazil

ABSTRACT Hybodontiformes are considered the closest relatives of modern sharks and were the dominant shark group throughout most of the Mesozoic. Although, originally a marine group, during their long temporal range, they conquered the freshwater environment. This is the case of numerous taxa known in northern Gondwana. Here, we report the presence of the hybodontiform Aegyptobatus in the Albian-Cenomanian Alcântara Formation of the São Luis Basin, Northeastern Brazil. A comparison made with other hybodontiform teeth from the Northern Gondwana suggests that the teeth from the Alcântara Formation is noticeably the same species found in the late Cenomanian Bahariya Formation of Egypt, A. kuehnei. Although probably restricted to freshwater, the new discovery increases the geographic range of this taxon, adds one more common taxon between the Brazilian Alcântara Formation and Cretaceous units of North Africa, and extends the temporal range of this taxon down into the Albian-Cenomanian.

Understanding spatiotemporal effects of food supplementation on host-parasite interactions using community-based science.

Supplemental feeding can increase the overall health of animals but also can have variable effects on how animals defend themselves against parasites. However, the spatiotemporal effects of food supplementation on host-parasite interactions remain poorly understood, likely because large-scale, coordinated efforts to investigate them are difficult. Here, we introduce the Nest Parasite Community Science Project, which is a community-based science project that coordinates studies with bird nest box 'stewards' from the public and scientific community. This project was established to understand broad ecological patterns between hosts and their parasites. The goal of this study was to determine the effect of food supplementation on eastern bluebirds (Sialia sialis) and their nest parasite community across the geographic range of the bluebirds from 2018 to 2021. We received 674 nests from 69 stewards in 26 states in the eastern United States. Nest box stewards reported whether or not they provided mealworms or suet near nesting bluebirds, then they followed the nesting success of the birds (number of eggs laid and hatched, proportion that hatched, number and proportion of nestlings that successfully fledged). We then identified and quantified parasites in the nests. Overall, we found that food supplementation increased fledging success. The most common nest parasite taxon was the parasitic blow fly (Protocalliphora sialia), but a few nests contained fleas (Ceratophyllus idius, C. gallinae and Orchopeas leucopus) and mites (Dermanyssus spp. and Ornithonyssus spp.). Blow flies were primarily found at northern latitudes, where food supplementation affected blow fly prevalence. However, the direction of this effect varied substantially in direction and magnitude across years. More stewards fed bluebirds at southern latitudes than at northern latitudes, which contradicts the findings of other community-based science projects. Overall, food supplementation of birds was associated with increased host fitness but did not appear to play a consistent role in defence against these parasites across all years. Our study demonstrates the importance of coordinated studies across years and locations to understand the effects of environmental heterogeneity, including human-based food supplementation, on host-parasite dynamics.

Spatial Distribution Patterns of the Key Afforestation Species Cupressus funebris: Insights from an Ensemble Model under Climate Change Scenarios

Cupressus funebris Endl. (C. funebris) is an evergreen tree endemic to China that is classified as a national second-class endangered plant. This species plays critical roles in soil and humidity conservation, climate regulation, and ecological restoration. It is also important in silvicultural production, which is crucial for maintaining the stability of the ecosystem in Southwest China. In this study, an integrated modeling approach was used to integrate 10 species distribution models to simulate the potential distribution of C. funebris and predict the impact of future climate change on its distribution and ecological niche. Field surveys were conducted to compare the forest stands of C. funebris under different habitat suitability levels. The results showed that the most suitable areas for C. funebris were mainly located in Sichuan, Chongqing, and Guizhou, covering an area of approximately 15.651 × 104 km2. The productivity of the C. funebris forest stands in these highly suitable areas and was significantly higher than that in low and moderately suitable areas, although understory plant diversity did not show a competitive advantage. Under future climate scenarios, the potential distribution of C. funebris in China will expand and the geographical range of the niche will shift to higher latitudes in northern China as temperatures increase. The extent of this change in the niche’s geographical range intensified as warming increased. Specifically, under the 2090s-SSP585 climate scenario, the highly suitable area for C. funebris is projected to double, suggesting a significant expansion of the geographical range of the niche under this climate model, with more than half of the niche experiencing separation. In summary, the potential distribution of C. funebris may continue to expand and shift to higher latitudes in the context of global warming and its ecological niche’s geographical range will be adjusted accordingly. These findings provide a theoretical basis and practical guidance for in situ conservation, ex situ conservation, and rational utilization of C. funebris genetic resources by conducting niche modeling and climate suitability assessments.

Tracing the geographic origin of Atlantic cod products using stable isotope analysis.

Increasing demand for fish and seafood means that the traceability of marine products is becoming ever more important for consumers, producers and regulators. Highly complex and globalised supply networks create challenges for verifying a stated catch region. Atlantic cod is one of the most commercially important species in the northeast Atlantic. Several regional fisheries supply cod into the trade network, of which some are at greater risk of overexploitation than others. Tools allowing retrospective testing of spatial origin would significantly assist sustainable harvesting of fish, reducing incentives for illegal fishing and fraud. Here, we investigate whether stable isotope ratios of carbon, nitrogen and sulphur can be used to retrospectively identify the catch region of Atlantic cod (Gadus morhua). We measured the isotopic composition of muscle tissue from 377 cod from 10 catch regions across the northeast Atlantic and then applied three different assignment methods to classify cod by region of most likely origin. The assignment method developed was subsequently tested using independently sourced, known-origin samples. Individual cod could be traced back to their true origin with an average assignment accuracy of 70-79% and over 90% accuracy for certain regions. Assignment success rates comparable to those using genetic techniques were achieved when assigning among restricted and pre-selected regions. However, assignment accuracy to the fishery region estimated from independent samples across the whole geographic range of cod averaged ~25% overall, highlighting the need for careful application of isotope-based approaches. Stable isotope techniques can provide effective tools to test for origin in Atlantic cod, but not all catch regions are isotopically distinct. Stable isotopes could be combined with genetic techniques to result in higher assignment accuracy than could be achieved using either method independently. Assignment potential can be estimated from reference datasets, but estimates of realistic assignment accuracy require independently collected data.