Limited Geographic Range Research Articles

Status update of the endemic and critically endangered cave catfish Clarias cavernicola Trewavas 1936, from the Aigamas Cave system, Namibia

Knowledge of population sizes of threatened fish species is essential for formulation and implementation of effective conservation and management policies. Visual counts (VC) from two SCUBA diving expeditions during February and May 2019 were used to estimate the population size of the subterranean blind clariid cave-catfish Clarias cavernicola Trewavas 1936 in the Aigamas Cave system in Namibia. Two additional cave pools accessed through an entrance along the same fault, were explored during the May expedition. Two divers recorded 111 and 119 individuals in February and 35 and 41 individuals in May for the Aigamas Cave pool. Although the surveys were done to a depth of 40 m, individuals were only recorded to a maximum depth of 17 m. The difference between the February and May VC was 77 fish. This suggests that the catfish may potentially move to other pools through subterranean connections. The two new pools were found approximately 87 m below ground surface. A VC from above the surface by two observers showed that the first pool had at least 62 individuals of C. cavernicola and the second had at least 14 individuals. This survey has thus marginally, but importantly extended the range of this species to include two additional pools in the Aigamas Cave system. A reassessment of the conservation status of this species following the IUCN criteria, indicates that this species qualifies to be classified as Critically Endangered under criterion D, because of its limited geographic range and multiple threats, such as from excessive underground water abstraction, pollution and illegal collection by aquarists.

Development and validation of an index to measure agricultural sustainability

The main purpose of this study was to develop and validate an agricultural sustainability measurement index. A multi-stage process was introduced and employed to develop and to validate the index. Statistical population of the study consisted of Iranian wheat farmers. The related data were analyzed using various multivariate statistical methods i.e. principal component factor analysis and confirmatory factor analysis. Principal component factor analysis classified agricultural sustainability measurement indicators into four factors/criteria including “social equity and well-being”, “durability”, “stability and compatibility”, and “productivity and efficiency”. Factor structure of agricultural sustainability measurement index was then subjected to confirmatory factor analysis and fit indices of the model proved the measurement structure of index. Finally, 23 main indicators were introduced to measure agricultural sustainability. And the validity and reliability of the instrument were tested. Regarding the challenges of researchers, decision-makers and policymakers in improving and attaining agricultural sustainability, agricultural sustainability measurement index developed and validated in this study and its processes might be useful in directing/redirecting agricultural policies, rational comparison of different regions in terms of agricultural sustainability, and facilitating interventions. Besides, regarding that the index has been validated in Iran (a region with different climatic variations), that might be used for wider geographic range limits and climatic zones.

Using Lidar Data to Assess the Relationship Between Beach Geomorphology and Kemp’s Ridley (Lepidochelys kempii) Nest Site Selection Along Padre Island, TX, United States

The Kemp's ridley sea turtle (Lepidochelys kempii) is the most endangered sea turtle species in the world, largely due to the limited geographic range of its nesting habitat. There has been limited research regarding the connection between beach geomorphology and Kemp's ridley nesting patterns, but studies concerning other sea turtle species suggest that certain beach geomorphology variables, such as beach slope and width, influence nest site selection. This research attempts to address the literature gap by quantifying the terrestrial habitat variability of the Kemp's ridley and investigating the connection between beach geomorphology characteristics and Kemp's ridley nesting preferences on Padre Island, Texas, USA. Geomorphology characteristics, such as beach width and slope, were extracted from lidar-derived digital elevation models and associated with Kemp's nest coordinates and pseudo-absence points randomly created within the study area. Generalized linear models and random forest models were used to assess the significance of variables for nesting preferences. Kemp's ridley nest presence was successfully modeled using beach geomorphology characteristics, and elevation, distance from shoreline, maximum dune slope, and average beach slope were the relatively most important variables in the models. Kemp's ridleys exhibit a preference for a limited range of the study area and avoid nesting on beaches with beach characteristics of extreme values. The results of this study include new information regarding Kemp's ridley terrestrial habitat and nesting preferences that have many applications for species conservation and management.

Why do bugs perish? Range size and local vulnerability traits as surrogates of Odonata extinction risk.

Despite claims of an insect decline worldwide, our understanding of extinction risk in insects is incomplete. Using bionomic data of all odonate (603 dragonflies and damselflies) North American species, we assessed (i) regional extinction risk and whether this is related to local extirpation; (ii) whether these two patterns are similar altitudinally and latitudinally; and (iii) the areas of conservation concern. We used geographic range size as a predictor of regional extinction risk and body size, thermal limits and habitat association as predictors of local extirpation. We found that (i) greater regional extinction risk is related to narrow thermal limits, lotic habitat use and large body size (this in damselflies but not dragonflies); (ii) southern species are more climate tolerant but with more limited geographic range size than northern species; and (iii) two priority areas for odonate conservation are the cold temperate to sub-boreal northeastern USA and the transversal neo-volcanic system. Our approach can be used to estimate insect extinction risk as it compensates for the lack of abundance data.

Leaf‐out in northern ecotypes of wide‐ranging trees requires less spring warming, enhancing the risk of spring frost damage at cold range limits

AbstractAimTrees need to avoid frost damage to their young leaves by leafing out after the occurrence of the last frost, yet they also need to start photosynthesis early in the season to achieve sufficient growth. This trade‐off leads to the hypothesis that ‘safety margins’ against spring frost should become shorter, the longer the winter duration, perhaps reaching an asymptotic limit where frost damage would occur in most years. Physiologically, shorter safety margins in high‐latitude ecotypes might be achieved by lower degree‐day requirements for leaf‐out, compared to low‐latitude ecotypes.LocationEurope.Time period1902–2009.Major taxa studiedTemperate trees.MethodsUsing herbarium collections of Acer platanoides, Carpinus betulus, Fagus sylvatica and Prunus spinosa made over 108 years at 40° to 60° N latitude, we related historic leaf‐out dates to winter and spring temperatures (chilling and degree‐days), winter duration, and date of last frost occurrence in the relevant years and locations.ResultsIn all species, frost safety margins decreased towards high‐latitude regions with long winters, with each day increase in winter duration reducing frost safety margins by 0.48 days in Fagus and 0.32–0.21 days in Prunus, Acer and Carpinus. These latitudinal differences correlate with northern ecotypes’ shorter degree‐day requirements for leaf‐out.Main conclusionsThe decline in spring frost safety margins in regions with long winters supports the new hypothesis that species may reach their geographic range limit where they ‘bump up’ against experiencing regular frost injury to their young leaves. Larger datasets are necessary to further corroborate our hypothesis and future efforts should thus be directed toward increasing the latitudinal range of existing phenological databases.

Conservation Strategies for a Globally Imperiled and Hyper-Fragmented Ecosystem: Acquisition, Regulations, Incentives and Outreach in Miami Dade County

Pine rocklands are a globally critically imperiled ecosystem with limited geographic range, characterized by a high biodiversity of endemic herbaceous plants and frequent fire intervals (2-5 years). In Miami-Dade County, approximately 2% of the forest outside Everglades National Park (ENP) remains. The County adopted a forest property tax program in 1979, passed a forest preservation ordinance in 1984, and created a land acquisition program in 1991. Outreach and filling in the gaps between preservation areas are critical for the survival of a number of species.

Should I Stay or Should I Go: Partially Sedentary Populations Can Outperform Fully Dispersing Populations in Response to Climate-Induced Range Shifts

Global mean temperatures have increased by 0.72 ^circ C since the 1950s, and climate warming is resulting in geographical shifts in the range limits of many species. Climate velocity is estimated to be 0.42 km/year, and if a species fails to adapt to the new climate, it must track the location of its climatically constrained niche in order to survive. Dispersal has an important role to play in enabling a population to shift is geographical range limits, but many species are partially sedentary, with only a fraction of the population dispersing each year. We ask, can partially sedentary populations keep pace with climate or will such populations be more vulnerable to extinction? Through the development of a moving-habitat integrodifference equation model, we show that, provided climate velocity is not too large, partially sedentary populations can outperform fully dispersing populations in one of two ways: (i) by persisting at climate speeds where a fully dispersing population cannot, and (ii) exhibiting higher population densities. Moreover, we find that positive density-dependent dispersal can further improve the likelihood a population can persist. Our results highlight the positive role that non-dispersers may play in mitigating the effects of overdispersal and facilitating population persistence in a warming world.

Genetic variation of introduced red oak (Quercus rubra) stands in Germany compared to North American populations

Although Northern red oak (Quercus rubra L.) is the most important introduced deciduous tree species in Germany, only little is known about its genetic variation. For the first time, we describe patterns of neutral and potentially adaptive nuclear genetic variation in Northern red oak stands across Germany. For this purpose, 792 trees were genotyped including 611 trees from 12 stands in Germany of unknown origin and 181 trees from four populations within the natural distribution area in North America. Our marker set included 12 potentially adaptive (expressed sequence tag-derived simple sequence repeat = EST SSR) and 8 putatively selectively neutral nuclear microsatellite (nSSR) markers. Our results showed that German stands retain comparatively high levels of genetic variation at both EST-SSRs and nSSRs, but are more similar to each other than to North American populations. These findings are in agreement with earlier chloroplast DNA analyses which suggested that German populations originated from a limited geographic area in North America. The comparison between potentially adaptive and neutral microsatellite markers did not reveal differences in the analyzed diversity and differentiation measures for most markers. However, locus FIR013 was identified as a potential outlier locus. Due to the absence of signatures of selection in German stands, we suggest that introduced populations were established with material from provenances that were adapted to environmental conditions similar to those in Germany. However, we analyzed only a limited number of loci which are unlikely to be representative of adaptive genetic differences among German stands. Our results suggest that the apparent introduction from a limited geographic range in North America may go along with a reduced adaptive potential.

High-resolution inference of genetic relationships among Jewish populations.

Recent studies have used genome-wide single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) to investigate relationships among various Jewish populations and their non-Jewish historical neighbors, often focusing on small subsets of populations from a limited geographic range or relatively small samples within populations. Here, building on the significant progress that has emerged from genomic SNP studies in the placement of Jewish populations in relation to non-Jewish populations, we focus on population structure among Jewish populations. In particular, we examine Jewish population-genetic structure in samples that span much of the historical range of Jewish populations in Europe, the Middle East, North Africa, and South Asia. Combining 429 newly genotyped samples from 29 Jewish and 3 non-Jewish populations with previously reported genotypes on Jewish and non-Jewish populations, we investigate variation in 2789 individuals from 114 populations at 486,592 genome-wide autosomal SNPs. Using multidimensional scaling analysis, unsupervised model-based clustering, and population trees, we find that, genetically, most Jewish samples fall into four major clusters that largely represent four culturally defined groupings, namely the Ashkenazi, Mizrahi, North African, and Sephardi subdivisions of the Jewish population. We detect high-resolution population structure, including separation of the Ashkenazi and Sephardi groups and distinctions among populations within the Mizrahi and North African groups. Our results refine knowledge of Jewish population-genetic structure and contribute to a growing understanding of the distinctive genetic ancestry evident in closely related but historically separate Jewish communities.

Examining the use of economic evaluations in health-related humanitarian programmes in low- and middle-income countries: a systematic review.

The costly nature of health sector responses to humanitarian crises and resource constraints means that there is a need to identify methods for priority setting and long-term planning. One method is economic evaluation. The aim of this systematic review is to examine the use of economic evaluations in health-related humanitarian programmes in low- and middle-income countries. This review used peer-reviewed literature published between January 1980 and June 2018 extracted from four main electronic bibliographic databases. The eligibility criteria were full economic evaluations (which compare the costs and outcomes of at least two interventions and provide information on efficiency) of health-related services in humanitarian crises in low- and middle-countries. The quality of eligible studies is appraised using the modified 36-question Drummond checklist. From a total of 8127 total studies, 11 full economic evaluations were identified. All economic evaluations were cost-effectiveness analyses. Three of the 11 studies used a provider perspective, 2 studies used a healthcare system perspective, 3 studies used a societal perspective and 3 studies did not specify the perspective used. The lower quality studies failed to provide 7information on the unit of costs and did not justify the time horizon of costs and discount rates, or conduct a sensitivity analysis. There was limited geographic range of the studies, with 9 of the 11 studies conducted in Africa. Recommendations include greater use of economic evaluation methods and data to enhance the microeconomic understanding of health interventions in humanitarian settings to support greater efficiency and transparency and to strengthen capacity by recruiting economists and providing training in economic methods to humanitarian agencies.

First record of Burmeister\u2019s porpoise (Phocoena spinipinnis) in the Falkland Islands (Malvinas)

The Burmeister’s porpoise Phocoena spinipinnis is a small, poorly-studied, and Near Threatened cetacean species, with a limited geographic range comprising the Pacific and Atlantic coastal temperate waters of five South American countries. Here we describe a stranding of a freshly-dead adult male Burmeister’s porpoise that was discovered opportunistically on the eastern coast of the Falkland Islands (51°40.9′S, 57°43.2′W) on 29 June 2019. Unfortunately the carcass was removed by an unknown source prior to any scientific sampling, but the morphological features revealed in photographs taken of the dead animal were sufficient to verify the species identification. This is the first known record of Burmeister’s porpoise in the Falklands, confirming a sixth range state for the species and expanding its known distribution range eastwards from the previous nearest documented occurrence in Tierra del Fuego by at least 600 km across the Patagonian Shelf.

Modeling the distribution of a wide-ranging invasive species using the sampling efforts of expert and citizen scientists.

In its invasive range in Australia, the European rabbit threatens the persistence of native flora and fauna and damages agricultural production. Understanding its distribution and ecological niche is critical for developing management plans to reduce populations and avoid further biodiversity and economic losses.We developed an ensemble of species distribution models (SDMs) to determine the geographic range limits and habitat suitability of the rabbit in Australia. We examined the advantage of incorporating data collected by citizens (separately and jointly with expert data) and explored issues of spatial biases in occurrence data by implementing different approaches to generate pseudo‐absences. We evaluated the skill of our model using three approaches: cross‐validation, out‐of‐region validation, and evaluation of the covariate response curves according to expert knowledge of rabbit ecology.Combining citizen and expert occurrence data improved model skill based on cross‐validation, spatially reproduced important aspects of rabbit ecology, and reduced the need to extrapolate results beyond the studied areas.Our ensemble model projects that rabbits are distributed across approximately two thirds of Australia. Annual maximum temperatures >25°C and annual minimum temperatures >10°C define, respectively, the southern and northern most range limits of its distribution. In the arid and central regions, close access to permanent water (≤~ 0.4 km) and reduced clay soil composition (~20%–50%) were the major factors influencing the probability of occurrence of rabbits. Synthesis and applications. Our results show that citizen science data can play an important role in managing invasive species by providing missing information on occurrences in regions not surveyed by experts because of logistics or financial constraints. The additional sampling effort provided by citizens can improve the capacity of SDMs to capture important elements of a species ecological niche, improving the capacity of statistical models to accurately predict the geographic range of invasive species.

Maladaptation beyond a geographic range limit driven by antagonistic and mutualistic biotic interactions across an abiotic gradient.

Species' geographic range limits often result from maladaptation to the novel environments beyond the range margin. However, we rarely know which aspects of the n-dimensional environment are driving this maladaptation. Especially of interest is the influence of abiotic versus biotic factors in delimiting species' distributions. We conducted a 2-year reciprocal transplant experiment involving manipulations of the biotic environment to explore how spatiotemporal gradients in precipitation, fatal mammalian herbivory, and pollination affected lifetime fitness within and beyond the range of the California annual plant, Clarkia xantiana ssp. xantiana. In the first, drier year of the experiment, fitness outside the range edge was limited mainly by low precipitation, and there was some evidence for local adaptation within the range. In the second, wetter year, we did not observe abiotic limitations to plant fitness outside the range; instead biotic interactions, especially herbivory, limited fitness outside the range. Together, protection from herbivory and supplementation of pollen resulted in three- to sevenfold increases in lifetime fitness outside the range margin in the abiotically benign year. Overall, our work demonstrates the importance of biotic interactions, particularly as they interact with the abiotic environment, in determining fitness beyond geographic range boundaries.

Applying science to pressing conservation needs for penguins.

More than half of the world's 18 penguin species are declining. We, the Steering Committee of the International Union for Conservation of Nature Species Survival Commission Penguin Specialist Group, determined that the penguin species in most critical need of conservation action are African penguin (Spheniscus demersus), Galápagos penguin (Spheniscus mendiculus), and Yellow‐eyed penguin (Megadyptes antipodes). Due to small or rapidly declining populations, these species require immediate scientific collaboration and policy intervention. We also used a pairwise‐ranking approach to prioritize research and conservation needs for all penguins. Among the 12 cross‐taxa research areas we identified, we ranked quantifying population trends, estimating demographic rates, forecasting environmental patterns of change, and improving the knowledge of fisheries interactions as the highest priorities. The highest ranked conservation needs were to enhance marine spatial planning, improve stakeholder engagement, and develop disaster‐management and species‐specific action plans. We concurred that, to improve the translation of science into effective conservation for penguins, the scientific community and funding bodies must recognize the importance of and support long‐term research; research on and conservation of penguins must expand its focus to include the nonbreeding season and juvenile stage; marine reserves must be designed at ecologically appropriate spatial and temporal scales; and communication between scientists and decision makers must be improved with the help of individual scientists and interdisciplinary working groups.

Biotic Interactions Contribute to the Geographic Range Limit of an Annual Plant: Herbivory and Phenology Mediate Fitness beyond a Range Margin.

Species' geographic distributions have already shifted during the Anthropocene. However, we often do not know what aspects of the environment drive range dynamics, much less which traits mediate organisms' responses to these environmental gradients. Most studies focus on possible climatic limits to species' distributions and have ignored the role of biotic interactions, despite theoretical support for their importance in setting distributional limits. We used field experiments and simulations to estimate contributions of mammalian herbivory to a range boundary in the Californian annual plant Clarkia xantiana ssp. xantiana. A steep gradient of increasing probability of herbivory occurred across the boundary, and a reanalysis of prior transplant experiments revealed that herbivory drove severalfold declines in lifetime fitness at and beyond the boundary. Simulations showed that populations could potentially persist beyond the range margin in the absence of herbivory. Using data from a narrowly sympatric subspecies, Clarkia xantiana parviflora, we also showed that delayed phenology is strongly associated with C. xantiana ssp. xantiana's susceptibility to herbivory and low fitness beyond its border. Overall, our results provide some of the most comprehensive evidence to date of how the interplay of demography, traits, and spatial gradients in species interactions can produce a geographic range limit, and they lend empirical support to recent developments in range limits theory.

Cambarus franklini, a new crayfish (Decapoda: Cambaridae) from the Catawba River Basin in western North Carolina, USA.

A new species of stream-dwelling crayfish, Cambarus franklini, the South Mountains crayfish, is described from the upper South Fork Catawba River basin in western North Carolina, USA using morphological and genetic data. Cambarus franklini was previously considered a member of the widespread and morphologically variable Cambarus species C complex and is morphologically most similar to an undiagnosed member of the group native to the upper Catawba River basin in NC. Cambarus franklini can be differentiated from this species group by several morphological characteristics including: lacking a well-defined double row of tubercles along the mesial margin of the palm, possessing a more weakly convergent and longer acumen, and conspicuous blue-green and red coloration, particularly throughout the telson and along the distal margins of the rami. This species is phylogenetically most similar to Cambarus johni, Cooper, 2006, another former member of the Cambarus species C group. Cambarus franklini has a limited geographic range (100 km2) and is currently known only from the Henry and Jacob Fork watersheds in the South Mountains region of the Eastern Blue Ridge foothills.

Phylogeography and conservation genetics of the endangered Tugarinovia mongolica (Asteraceae) from Inner Mongolia, Northwest China.

Tugarinovia (Family Asteraceae) is a monotypic genus. It’s sole species, Tugarinovia mongolica Iljin, is distributed in the northern part of Inner Mongolia, with one additional variety, Tugarinovia mongolica var ovatifolia, which is distributed in the southern part of Inner Mongolia. The species has a limited geographical range and declining populations. To understand the phylogeographic structure of T. mongolica, we sequenced two chloroplast DNA regions (psbA-trnH and psbK-psbI) from 219 individuals of 16 populations, and investigated the genetic variation and phylogeographic patterns of T. mongolica. The results identified a total of 17 (H1-H17) chloroplast haplotypes. There were no haplotypes shared between the northern (T. mongolica) and southern groups (T. mongolica var. ovatifolia), and they formed two distinct lineages. The regional split was also supported by AMOVA and BEAST analyses. AMOVA showed the main variation that occurred between the two geographic groups. The time of divergence of the two groups can be dated to the early Pleistocene epoch, when climate fluctuations most likely resulted in the allopatric divergence of T. mongolica. The formation of the desert blocked genetic flow and enhanced the divergence of the northern and southern groups. Our results indicate that the genetic differences between T. mongolica and T. mongolica var. ovatifolia are consistent with previously proposed morphological differences. We speculate that the dry, cold climate and the expansion of the desert during the Quaternary resulted in the currently observed distribution of extant populations of T. mongolica. In the northern group, the populations Chuanjinsumu, Wuliji and Yingen displayed the highest genetic diversity and should be given priority protection. The southern group showed a higher genetic drift (FST = 1, GST = 1), and the inbreeding load (HS = 0) required protection for each population. Our results propose that the protection of T. mongolica should be implemented through in situ and ex situ conservation practices to increase the effective population size and genetic diversity.

Evolving social dynamics prime thermal tolerance during a poleward range shift

Cold tolerance plays a critical role in determining species geographical range limits. Previous studies have found that range shifts in response to climate warming are facilitated by cold acclimation capacities, due to increasingly colder and variable weather at high latitudes, and that cold tolerance can also be influenced by social factors. In this study we combined experiments and field studies to investigate the climatic and social factors affecting cold tolerances in range- shifting populations of the female-polymorphic damselfly Ischnura elegans in northeast Scotland. In the field, we observed both environmental (measured via habitat suitability) and social (sex ratio and density) effects on cold tolerance (CTmin). Androchrome females (male-like females) were less susceptible to beneficial social effects on cold tolerance than gynochromes (female- like females), and correspondingly, gynochrome frequency increased at colder, environmentally- limiting sites towards the range margin. Our manipulations of density in the laboratory further provide novel, experimental evidence that social interactions directly impact cold tolerance n this species. These results suggest that reciprocal effects of social environments on thermal acclimation may be an important but commonly overlooked aspect of allee effects which contribute to the formation of range margins. Moreover, our results point to a wider need to consider the role of population and social dynamics to shape both the thermal physiology of individuals and the thermal niches of species.

Climate change, grazing, and collecting accelerate habitat contraction in an endangered primate

Correlational models are widely used to predict changes in species' distribution, but generally have failed to address the comprehensive effects of anthropogenic activities, climate change, habitat connectivity and gene flow on wildlife sustainability. Here, we used integrated approaches (MAXENT model, circuit model and genetic analysis) to assess and predict the effects of climate change and anthropogenic activities on the distribution, habitat connectivity, and genetic diversity of an endangered primate, Rhinopithecus bieti, from 2000 to 2050. We created six scenarios: climatic factors only (scenario-a), anthropogenic activities only (scenario-b), climatic factors and anthropogenic activities (scenario-c), plus three additional scenarios that included climatic factors and anthropogenic activities but controlled for individual anthropogenic activities (scenario-d: grazing, scenario-e: collecting, and scenario-f: grazing and collecting). The results indicate that areas of suitable habitat for R. bieti are expected to decline by 8.0%–22.4% from 2000 to 2050, with the collection of local forest products and the grazing of domesticated cattle as the primary drivers of landscape fragmentation and range contraction. If these anthropogenic activities are strictly controlled, however, the area of suitable habitat is predicted to increase by10.4%–14.3%. We also found that habitats vulnerable to human disturbance were principally located in areas of low habitat connectivity resulting in limited migration opportunities and increased loss of genetic diversity among R. bieti living in these isolated subpopulations. Thus, we suggest that effective management policies to protect this species include prohibiting both livestock grazing and the collecting of forest products. Although our study focuses on a single primate species, the conservation modeling approaches we presented have wide applicability to a broad range of threatened mammalian and avian taxa that currently inhabit a limited geographic range and are affected by anthropogenic activities (e.g. collecting, grazing, hunting), loss of habitat connectivity, reduced genetic diversity, and the effects of climate change.

The individual determinants of support for open space bond referendums

The ubiquitous use of ballot referendums in the public finance of land conservation means that conservation policy is often made at the individual voter level. However, studies to date have relied on either aggregate vote outcomes or surveys of residents of small geographic areas facing high growth. In this article, we utilize an original national survey to investigate a series of questions that pertain to individual opinion on open space preservation with a special focus on respondents’ perception of open space in their community. We find that most demographic variables that are determinants of open space and land use preferences in studies that use aggregate data and cover a limited geographic range are not statistically significant in our models. We also find that perceptions about the amount of open space available in ones’ community, not objective open space measurements, are a statistically significant and robust determinant of open space bond support. Our results indicate that policy advocates may be able to increase the probability of support for public financing of open space preservation by focusing on people’s perceptions of the scarcity and disappearance of open space.