Geographic Model Research Articles

The use of health geography modeling to understand early dispersion of COVID-19 in São Paulo, Brazil.

Public health policies to contain the spread of COVID-19 rely mainly on non-pharmacological measures. Those measures, especially social distancing, are a challenge for developing countries, such as Brazil. In São Paulo, the most populous state in Brazil (45 million inhabitants), most COVID-19 cases up to April 18th were reported in the Capital and metropolitan area. However, the inner municipalities, where 20 million people live, are also at risk. As governmental authorities discuss the loosening of measures for restricting population mobility, it is urgent to analyze the routes of dispersion of COVID-19 in São Paulo territory. We hypothesize that urban hierarchy is the main responsible for the disease spreading, and we identify the hotspots and the main routes of virus movement from the metropolis to the inner state. In this ecological study, we use geographic models of population mobility to check for patterns for the spread of SARS-CoV-2 infection. We identify two patterns based on surveillance data: one by contiguous diffusion from the capital metropolitan area, and the other hierarchical with long-distance spread through major highways that connects São Paulo city with cities of regional relevance. This knowledge can provide real-time responses to support public health strategies, optimizing the use of resources in order to minimize disease impact on population and economy.

The persistence of apartheid regional wage disparities in South Africa

Abstract In this article, we use a new economic geography (NEG) model to estimate the extent to which the persistence in apartheid regional wage disparities in South Africa is an outcome of economic forces such as market access. We estimate a structural wage equation derived directly from the NEG theory for 354 regions over the period 1996 to 2011. We find support for an augmented NEG model in explaining regional wage disparities across regions in South Africa, although the market access effects are highly localised in view of high distance coefficients. We also find, even after controlling for NEG and other region-specific characteristics, a persistent wage deficit in the former homelands, where under apartheid black South Africans were forcefully relocated according to their ethnic groups. Average wages of workers in homelands remained approximately 17% lower than predicted between 1996 and 2011, despite the reintegration of these regions into South Africa and the implementation of regional policies after the end of apartheid.

Agglomeration Processes in Ageing Societies

This article investigates agglomeration processes in ageing societies by introducing anoverlapping generation structure into a New Economic Geography model. Whether highereconomic integration leads to spatial concentration of economic activity crucially hinges onthe economies' demographic properties. While population aging as represented by decliningbirth rates strengthens agglomeration processes, declining mortality rates weaken them. This isdue to the fact that we allow for nonconstant population size. In particular, we show thatpopulation growth acts as an important dispersion force that augments the distributionaleffects on agglomeration processes resulting from the turnover of generations.JEL classification: R12, J10, F15, C61

Coping with Inefficiencies in a New Economic Geography Model

This article introduces a social planner version of a model central to the New Economic Geography for explicitly answering whether the symmetric equilibrium outcome of the decentralized market economy is socially desirable. We find that savings incentives are too weak, resulting in an inefficiently low capital stock and therefore an inadequate number of product varieties. The optimal subsidy and taxation scheme to remedy these distortions resulting from the monopolistic competition structure is shown to be a sales subsidy financed by a lump-sum tax that results in marginal cost pricing. Interestingly, implementing this optimal policy might actually destroy the stability of the symmetric equilibrium and result in unintended agglomeration processes.

Global bifurcation mechanism and local stability of identical and equidistant regions: Application to three regions and more

We provide an analytical description of possible spatial patterns in economic geography models with three identical and equidistant regions by adapting results from General Bifurcation mechanism. We then use Pflüger's (2004, Reg Sci Urb Econ) model to show analytically how such spatial patterns can be uncovered. As the freeness of trade increases, a uniform distribution undergoes a direct bifurcation that leads to either (1) a state with two identical small regions and one large region or (2) a state with two identical large regions and one small region. The former state leads to the agglomeration in a single region. The latter leads to a state with two evenly populated regions and one region with no industry, which further undergoes a secondary bifurcation, en route to a partial agglomeration with one small region and one large region. The stability of these states is investigated. We show that an asymmetric equilibrium such that all regions have different positive industry sizes cannot be connected with other types of equilibria. Therefore, an initially asymmetric state will remain so and preserve the ordering between region sizes. For the n-region model, we show that an equilibrium with more than three groups of identical regions cannot be reached from an interior state, thus precluding any completely asymmetric state with industry in all regions. We also provide insights on other economic geography models with three regions.

The impact of public employment: Evidence from Bonn

This paper evaluates the impact of changes in public employment on private sector activity using the creation of the new West German government in Bonn in the wake of the Second World War as a source of exogenous variation. To guide our empirical analysis, we develop a simple economic geography model in which public sector employment affects private sector employment through its impact on wages and house prices and also through potential productivity and amenity spillovers to the private sector. We find that relative to a control group of cities, Bonn experiences a substantial increase in public employment. However, this results in only modest increases in private sector employment with each additional public sector job destroying around 0.2 jobs in industry and creating just over one additional job in other parts of the private sector. We show how our model can explain this finding and provide several pieces of evidence for the mechanisms emphasized by the model.

The impact of special economic zones on producer services productivity: Evidence from China

Do Special Economic Zones (SEZs) promote the productivity of producer services, and what are the channels of the effect? To shed light on these questions, we collect a dataset of 1.46 million producer service firms on the basis of the Second Economic Census of China. We then use the dataset to prove the productivity advantages of producer service industry in the SEZs. Guided by a “new” new economic geography model, we estimate these advantages using the IV model and unconditional distribution characteristic-parameter correspondence method. Results imply that agglomeration effect is the source of the productivity advantages of the producer services in the SEZs. This effect is positively correlated with the local manufacturing scale. A high industrial relevancy between the producer services and the leading manufacturing industry in the SEZs results in a strong agglomeration effect. The preferential policy in the SEZs reduces the entry barrier for firms and attracts a high proportion of inefficient firms entering with the selection effect. This result has a negative impact on promoting the productivity of producer services. The conclusions are robust in different circumstances.

Obtaining a hub position: A New Economic Geography analysis of industry location and trade network structures

AbstractWe present a linear New Economic Geography model with three regions, one remote region and two regions that entertain a trade agreement with low bilateral trade costs. Only one of these two integrated regions has the outside option to conclude an additional trade agreement with the remote region and to obtain a hub position. We show that the new trade agreement has a substantial impact on industry location and trade patterns and that the effects strongly depend upon level of integration between the initial two regions. It is not always the region with the outside option that profits from using it. Finally, we also show that higher firm mobility may lead to complex dynamics.

Research on GIS and CAE cooperative coupled dynamic geographical situational response

The relationship between geographic entities and geographical environment is a vital research topic of geography, and the response characteristics of geographic entities to geographical environment are the basis of Geo-design and geographical decision. Building entities and geography modeling is the key to intelligent cities and disaster response. In the traditional GIS domain, the modeling of building entities was limited to the representation of geometric features and spatial relations, which was unable to simulate the "action-response" relationship between geographic entities and geographical environments for the lack of the expression of the structural characteristics of architectural entities. In this paper, the structural model of the building, which is taken as a link between the organic coupling of GIS and CAE two heterogeneous systems, is built to achieve geographical entities on the dynamic response of the geography of the environment simulation, thus providing the support for the intelligent geographic decision and disaster emergency. This paper focuses on the definition, composition and expression of the building structure model, which is geared to the coupling of GIS and CAE. It also discusses the methods of GIS-based dynamic geographical simulation and CAE-based response analysis. Moreover, the "role-response" model taken the building structure model as the core is built between "Model-simulation-evaluation-decision" geographic entities and geographical environment. The results of structural analysis and the evaluation of diagnosis results are visualized by means of "3D thematic map", and the components are modified and optimized based on the interactive modification method. The structure analysis and design efficiency are improved and the iteration cycle of structure design is accelerated. Design of building structure and modeling quality are been improved. This research extends the static spatial characteristics expression of GIS to dynamic geography scene simulation, further expending the study category of relationship between geography entities and geography environment.

The shrinking advantage of market potential

How does a country's economic geography evolve along the development path? This paper documents recent employment growth in 18,961 regions in eight of the world's main economies. Overall, market potential is losing importance as a correlate of local growth, while local employment density is gaining importance. In mature economies, growth is strongest in low-market-potential areas. In emerging economies, the opposite is true, though the association with market potential is also weakening there. Structural transformation away from agriculture can account for some of the observed changes. The part left unexplained by structural transformation is consistent with a standard economic geography model that yields a bell-shaped relation between trade costs and the growth of centrally located regions.

An Analysis Of Using Numbered Head Together Learning Model In Geography Subject at Class X Ips 5 Class in Sman 1 Luhak Nan Duo

The aims of this research were to reveal the data, information and discuss the using of Numbered Head Together Learning Model of Geography at X IPS 5 Class in SMAN 1 Luhak Nan Duo. The type of the research was a descriptive research with a quantitative approach. This research was conducted at SMAN 1 Luhak Nan Duo through the subject of this research being students at Class X IPS 5, amounting to 33 students. Data collection was done through observation sheets, questionnaires, and documentation. The data technique analysis was the quantitative descriptive by the calculation of the percentage and total respondents' achievements. The conclusion of this research was the students' response to the application of the learning model of the Numbered Head Together at X IPS 5 Class of SMAN 1 Luhak Nan Duo was in the much-needed category and was in the very good category.

A Review of Distance Decay Research Trends in Tourism from 2000-2020

Distance decay defined as demand or volume decreases exponentially with distance increases. It is a gravity model of human geography that used to understand human behaviours, movements, and tourism flows, particularly in tourism planning and management. Thus, this paper attempts to outline a systematic literature review to provide a comprehensive understanding with different distance decay thematic studied in tourism research from the year 2000 - 2020. The review identified the research focuses with the research scopes studied and contribute to conceptual and theoretical basic understanding. Keywords: distance decay; sustainable tourism development; science mapping. eISSN: 2398-4287© 2020. The Authors. Published for AMER ABRA cE-Bsby e-International Publishing House, Ltd., UK. This is an open access article under the CC BY-NC-ND license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/). Peer-review under responsibility of AMER (Association of Malaysian Environment-Behaviour Researchers), ABRA (Association of Behavioural Researchers on Asians) and cE-Bs (Centre for Environment-Behaviour Studies), Faculty of Architecture, Planning & Surveying, Universiti Teknologi MARA, Malaysia. DOI: https://doi.org/10.21834/ebpj.v5i14.2275

The role of labour migration inflows on R&D and innovation activity: evidence from Russian regions

Purpose What is the effect of an increase of migration inflows on the R&D and innovative performance of developing countries? The purpose of this paper is to investigate the impact of migration inflows on the R&D and innovation activity (measured as expenditures on R&D and technological innovations) in Russian regions. Design/methodology/approach To this end, the authors use data on 85 Russian regions for the period 2010-2016 through a multi-region economic geography model. In particular, the authors test the hypothesis about the importance of migration inflows on R&D and technological innovation activity (H1) and the hypothesis about the importance of immigrants’ (incoming migrants) human capital (measured by the education level of incoming migrants) on R&D and innovation activity (H2). Findings Empirical findings support the evidence in favour of a positive causal link between innovation and migration inflows. Results of our investigation are important because they suggest useful insights for formulating science and innovation policies in Russia, which is a developing country where the recent policies favouring the technological innovation as the transition period have not yet achieved a satisfying outcome. Originality/value This paper increases the knowledge in the field with respect to the existing literature, shedding further light on the migration inflows effects, which is a political topic to manage very relevant in all countries.

Market Potential and Fiscal Incentives Influence Firms’ Location Decisions: Evidence From U.S. Counties

How important are market potential and fiscal incentives for firms’ location decisions? We estimate the influence of subsidies and tax breaks on the decisions of firms to relocate or to remain in a certain U.S. county using a structural economic geography model developed in Meurers and Moenius (2018). In a panel data set from 1990 to 2016 for almost 3,000 U.S. counties, the authors find a strong and robust impact of economic geography on firms’ location decisions: The closer a county is to market demand and to the supply of inputs, the more firms locate there. As the model predicts, public investment attracts firms while the local tax burden disincentivizes economic activity, although to a lesser extent. Furthermore, in counties that are closer to economic centers, firms respond less to public investment and tax changes than firms in counties far away from centers. These data, therefore, confirm the predictions of the model regarding the potential effectiveness of regional development policies, in particular for investment tax credits, job creation, and training.

Using Mesoproterozoic sedimentary geochemistry to reconstruct basin tectonic geography and link organic carbon productivity to nutrient flux from a Northern Australian large igneous Province

AbstractThe Beetaloo Sub‐basin, northern Australia, is considered the main depocentre of the 1,000‐km scale Mesoproterozoic Wilton package of the greater McArthur Basin – the host to one of the oldest hydrocarbon global resources. The ca. 1.40–1.31 Ga upper Roper Group and the latest Mesoproterozoic to early Neoproterozoic unnamed group of the Beetaloo Sub‐basin, together, record ca. 500 million years of depositional history within the North Australia Craton. Whole‐rock shale Sm–Nd and Pb isotope data from these sediments reveal sedimentary provenance and their evolution from ca. 1.35 to 0.85 Ga. Furthermore, these data, together with shale major/trace elements data from this study and pyrolysis data from previous publications, are used to develop a dynamic tectonic geography model that links the organic carbon production and burial to an enhanced weathering of nutrients from a large igneous province. The ca. 1.35–1.31 Ga Kyalla Formation of the upper Roper Group is composed of isotopically evolved sedimentary detritus that passes up, into more isotopically juvenile Pb values towards the top of the formation. The increase in juvenile compositions coincides with elevated total organic carbon (TOC) contents of these sediments. The coherently enriched juvenile compositions and TOC the upper portions of the Kyalla Formation are interpreted to reflect an increase in nutrient supply associated with the weathering of basaltic sources (e.g. phosphorous). Possible, relatively juvenile, basaltic sources include the Wankanki Supersuite in the western Musgraves and the Derim Derim–Galiwinku large igneous province (LIP). The transition into juvenile, basaltic sources directly before a supersequence‐bounding unconformity is here interpreted to reflect uplift and erosion of the Derim Derim–Galiwinku LIP, rather than an influx of southern Musgrave sources. A new baddeleyite crystallisation age of 1,312.9 ± 0.7 Ma provides both a tight constraint on the age of this LIP, along with its associated magmatic uplift, as well as providing a minimum age constraint for Roper Group deposition. The unconformably overlying lower and upper Jamison sandstones are at least 300 million years younger than the Kyalla Formation and were sourced from the Musgrave Province. An up‐section increase in isotopically juvenile compositions seen in these rocks is interpreted to document the progressive exhumation of the western Musgrave Province. The overlying Hayfield mudstone received detritus from both the Musgrave and Arunta regions, and its isotopic geochemistry reveals affinities with other early Neoproterozoic basins (e.g. Amadeus, Victoria and Officer basins), indicating the potential for inter‐basin correlations.

Skill Transferability and Migration: A Theoretical Analysis of Skilled Migration Under Frictional Skill Transfer

ABSTRACTIn this study, we analyze how skill transferability from an origin country to a destination country characterized by lower productivity, affects skilled worker migration, by using a multi-country new economic geography model proposed by Gasper et al. (2018). Specifically, we explain how countries that are less frictional in terms of skill transfer attract more high-skilled international migrants. The analysis, which is based on asymmetric skill transferability among countries that can be divided into two groups – those with smooth skill transferability for migrants and those with less smooth skill transferability – finds that countries with smooth skill transferability are more likely to be the industrial core attracting all skilled workers. We also find that lower frictional migration costs from a country with less smooth skill transferability to a country with smooth skill transferability always accelerates industrial agglomeration in the smooth skill transferability core country, while lower frictional migration costs between smooth skill transferability countries does not necessarily accelerate industrial agglomeration in a country with smooth skill transferability due to market crowding effects.

Ice(berg) Transport Costs

Abstract Iceberg transport costs are a key ingredient of modern trade and economic geography models. Using detailed information on Boston’s nineteenth-century global ice trade, we show that the cost of shipping the only good that truly melts in transit is not well-proxied by this assumption. Additive cost components account for the largest part of per unit ice(berg) transport costs in practice. Moreover, the physics of the melt process and the practice of insulating the ice in transit meant that shipping ice is subject to economies of scale. This finding supports, from an unexpected historical angle, recent efforts to incorporate more realistic features of the transportation sector in trade and economic geography models.

The Value-Based Geography Model of Care

Summary A new value-based geography model for health care updates the approach that emerged in the last century by creating a structure to optimize value for patients across three dimensions: location, time, and the right mix of personnel. A four-part playbook outlines the strategic use of geography by empowering integrated practice units to deliver care wherever it can be performed with excellent outcomes, lower costs, and greater convenience to the patient, even if this means using different sites for various parts of the care cycle.

So near and yet so far: a grounded theory study of incarcerated Filipino elderly’s experiences of emotional geography

ABSTRACTEmotional geography defines how emotions affect the interaction of individuals within their setting. Considering that prison has been described as a place saturated with negative emotions, previous studies have only dwelt on the negative impact of incarceration on the emotional well-being and interactions of the inmates. However, no attempt has been made that dilates on how emotional geography facilitates the establishment of good relationships inside the penal institution, hence this investigation. The overall intent of this investigation is to describe the process of emotional geography among a select group of incarcerated Filipino elderly. This study utilized the qualitative, grounded theory design. A purposive sample of 25 incarcerated Filipino elderly from the New Bilibid Prison in Muntinlupa City, Philippines participated in this study. Interestingly, this study afforded the development of de Guzman, Henson, Gumba, Fradejas, and Valdez Shoelace Model of Emotional Geography which describes how the incarcerated Filipino elderly’s emotions affect their interactions in achieving positive relationships with other inmates while inside the penal institution. This emerged model is comprised of three phases, namely: isolating (embracing a wall of mistrust), integrating (making connections through shared stories), and intertwining (strengthening the bonds thru emotional understanding). The emerged theoretical model has successfully described the process of emotional geography, which can be utilized by gerontological workers, nurses and other health professionals in addressing and accommodating the social and custodial needs of this vulnerable group.

A propos Brexit: on the breaking up of integration areas – an NEG analysis

ABSTRACT Inspired by Brexit, the paper explores the effects of splitting an integration area or ‘Union’ on trade patterns and the spatial distribution of industry. A linear three-region New Economic Geography (NEG) model is developed and two possible situations before separation are considered: agglomeration and dispersion. By analogy with the Brexit options, soft and hard separation scenarios are considered. Firms in the leaving region may move to the larger Union market, even on the periphery, relocation substituting trade; or firms in the Union may move in the more isolated leaving region, escaping from competition. The paper also analyses deeper Union integration following separation. Instances of multistability and complex dynamics are found.