Geoengineering Research Articles

Critical dependence of morphodynamic models of fluvial and tidal systems on empirical downslope sediment transport

The morphological development of fluvial and tidal systems is forecast more and more frequently by models in scientific and engineering studies for decision making regarding climate change mitigation, flood control, navigation and engineering works. However, many existing morphodynamic models predict unrealistically high channel incision, which is often dampened by increased gravity-driven sediment transport on side-slopes by up to two orders of magnitude too high. Here we show that such arbitrary calibrations dramatically bias sediment dynamics, channel patterns, and rate of morphological change. For five different models bracketing a range of scales and environments, we found that it is impossible to calibrate a model on both sediment transport magnitude and morphology. Consequently, present calibration practice may cause an order magnitude error in either morphology or morphological change. We show how model design can be optimized for different applications. We discuss the major implications for model interpretation and a critical knowledge gap.

Cracking the code: how discursive structures shape climate engineering research governance

ABSTRACT There is increasing interest in developing anticipatory governance of climate engineering (CE) research. Discourse is the source code with which contested futures are written, shaping how future governance options can be imagined, designed and institutionalized. ‘Cracking the code’ underpinning the CE research governance debate can, therefore, help anticipate and critically reflect upon the ongoing constitution of governance. I present a sociology-of-knowledge-based discourse analysis (SKAD) of a series of interviews with governance experts from the US, the UK and Germany about a proposed Code of Conduct for climate engineering research. I illustrate how – by shaping what is defined as the object(s) of governance, why governance is considered necessary, and who is assigned the authority to govern – the underlying discursive structure of a given governance debate can shape governance development.

Einstein in Britain, worlds on the ebb, and a new angle on climate engineering: Books in brief

Barbara Kiser reviews five of the week’s best science picks. Barbara Kiser reviews five of the week’s best science picks.

Sun-synchronous solar reflector orbits designed to warm Mars

Although the Martian environment is very cold (averaging about $-60^{\circ }$ C), highly oxidizing and desiccated, several studies have proposed human colonization of Mars. To carry out this ambitious goal, terraforming schemes have been designed to warm Mars and implant Earth-like life. Mars climate engineering includes the use of orbiting solar reflectors to increase the total solar insolation. In this study, Sun-synchronous solar reflectors orbits with inclination equal or less than $90^{\circ }$ with respect to the orbital plane of Mars are considered to intervene with the Mars’ climate system. With different inclinations, a family of Sun-synchronous solar reflectors orbits distributes azimuthally the energy intercepted by the reflector. The two-body problem is considered, and the Gauss’s form of the variational equations is used to find the conditions to achieve a Sun-synchronous frozen orbit with inclination equal or less than $90^{\circ }$ , taking into account the effects of solar radiation pressure for a perfectly reflecting space mirror and Mars’ $J_{2}$ oblateness perturbation.

Geophysical Consequences of Tropospheric Particulate Heating: Further Evidence that Anthropogenic Global Warming is Principally Caused by Particulate Pollution

The climate science community and the United Nations’ Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change have misinformed world governments by failing to acknowledge tropospheric particulate geoengineering that has been ongoing with ever-increasing duration and intensity for decades, and by treating global warming solely as a radiation-balance issue, which has resulted in a seriously incomplete understanding of the fundamental factors that affect Earth’s surface temperature. Here we review the consequences of tropospheric particulate heating by absorption of short- and long-wave solar radiation and long-wave radiation from Earth’s surface. Generally, black carbon absorbs light over the entire solar spectrum; brown carbon absorbs near-UV wavelengths and, to a lesser extent, visible light; iron oxides are good absorbers, the most efficient being magnetite. Pyrogenic coal fly ash, both from coal burning and from tropospheric jet-spraying geoengineering (for military purposes and/or climate engineering), contains carbon and iron oxides, hematite and magnetite. The recently published climate-science paradigm shift discloses that the main cause of global warming is not carbon dioxide heat retention, but particulate pollution that absorbs radiation, heats the troposphere, and reduces the efficiency of atmospheric-convective heat removal from Earth’s surface. In addition to the World War II data, three other independent lines of supporting evidence are reviewed: (1) Passage overhead of the Mt. St. Helens volcanic plume; (2) Radiosonde and aethalometer investigations of Talukdar et al.; and, (3) convection suppression over the tropical North Atlantic caused by the Saharan-blown dust. The risks associated with the placement of aerosol particulates into the stratosphere, whether lofted naturally, inadvertently, or deliberately as proposed for solar radiation management, poses grave risks, including the destruction of atmospheric ozone. To solve global warming humanity must: (1) Abruptly halt tropospheric particulate geoengineering; (2) Trap particulate emissions from coal-fired industrial furnaces (especially in India and China) and from vehicle exhaust; and, (3) Reduce particulate-forming fuel additives.

Science and Environmental Communication on YouTube: Strategically Distorted Communications in Online Videos on Climate Change and Climate Engineering

The online video-sharing website YouTube is extremely popular globally, also as a tool for information on science and environmental topics. However, only little is known about what kind of information users find when they are searching for information about climate science, climate change and climate engineering on YouTube. This contribution presents results from an exploratory research project that investigates whether videos found on YouTube adhere to or challenge scientific consensus views. Ten search terms were employed to search for and analyze 200 videos about climate and climate modification topics, which are contested topics in online media. The online anonymization tool Tor has been used for the randomization of the sample and to avoid personalization of the results. A heuristic qualitative classification tool was set up to categorize the videos in the sample. 89 videos of the 200 videos in the sample are supporting scientific consensus views about anthropogenic climate change, and climate scientists are discussing climate topics with deniers of climate change in 4 videos in the sample. Unexpectedly, the majority of the videos in the sample (107 videos) supports worldviews that are opposing scientific consensus views: 16 videos deny climate change and 91 videos in the sample propagate straightforward conspiracy theories about climate engineering and climate change. Videos supporting the scientific mainstream view received only slightly more views (16,941,949 views in total) than those opposing the mainstream scientific position (16,939,655 views in total). Consequences for the public communication of climate change and climate engineering are discussed in the second part of the article. The research presented in this contribution is particularly interested in finding out more about strategically distorted communications about climate change and climate engineering in online environments and in critically analyzing them.

Governing Climate Engineering: A Proposal for Immediate Governance of Solar Radiation Management

Solar radiation management (SRM) technologies would reflect a small amount of incoming solar radiation back into space before the radiation can warm the planet. Although SRM may emerge as a useful component of a global response to climate change, there is also good reason for caution. In June 2017, the Academic Working Group on Climate Engineering Governance released a policy report, “Governing Solar Radiation Management”, which developed a set of objectives to govern SRM in the near-term future: (1) keep mitigation and adaptation first; (2) thoroughly and transparently evaluate risks, burdens, and benefits; (3) enable responsible knowledge creation; and (4) ensure robust governance before any consideration of deployment. To advance the governance objectives identified above, the working group developed twelve recommendations, grouped into three clusters: (1) create politically legitimate deliberative bodies; (2) leverage existing institutions; and (3) make research transparent and accountable. This communication discusses the rationale behind each cluster and elaborates on a subset of the recommendations from each cluster.

In Situ Electrosynthesis of Peroxydicarbonate Anion in Ionic Liquid Media Using Carbon Dioxide/Superoxide System.

Climate engineering solutions with emphasis on CO2 removal remain a global open challenge to balancing atmospheric CO2 equilibrium levels. As a result, warnings of impending climate disasters are growing every day in urgency. Beyond ordinary CO2 removal through natural CO2 sinks such as oceans and forest vegetation, direct CO2 conversion into valuable intermediaries is necessary. Here, a direct electrosynthesis of the peroxydicarbonate anion (C2O62-) was investigated by the reaction of CO2 with the superoxide ion (O2·-), electrochemically generated from O2 reduction in bis(trifluoromethylsulfonyl)imide [TFSI-] anion derived ionic liquid (IL) media. This is the first time that the IL media were employed successfully for CO2 conversion into C2O62-. Moreover, the charge transfer coefficient for the O2·- generation process in the ILs was less than 0.5, indicating that the process was irreversible. Voltammetry experiments coupled with global electrophilicity index analysis revealed that, when CO2/O2 was contacted simultaneously in the IL medium, O2·- was generated in situ first at a potential of approximately -1.0 V. Also, CO2 was more susceptible to attack by O2·- before any possible interaction with the IL except for [PMIm+][TFSI-]. This was because CO2 has a higher global electrophilicity index (ωCO2 = 0.489 eV) than those for the [EDMPAmm+][TFSI-] and [MOEMMor+][TFSI-]. By further COSMO-RS modeling, CO2 absorption was proven feasible at the COSMO-surface of the [TFSI-] IL-anion where the charge densities were σ = -1.100 and 1.1097 e/nm2. Therefore, the susceptible competitiveness of either IL cations or CO2 to the nucleophilic effects of O2·- was a function of their positive character as estimated by their electrophilicity indices. As determined by experimental attenuated total reflection Fourier transform infrared spectroscopy (ATR-FTIR) and DFT-FTIR computation, the reaction yielded C2O62- in the ILs. Consequently, the presence of O=O symmetric stretching FTIR vibrational mode at ∼844 cm-1 coupled with the disappearance of the oxidative cyclic voltammetry waves when sparging CO2 and O2 confirmed the presence of C2O62-. Moreover, based on DFT/B3LYP/6-31G, pure C2O62- has symmetric O=O stretching at ∼805 and ∼844 cm-1 when it is in association with the IL-cation. This was the first spectroscopic observation of C2O62- in ILs, and the O=O symmetric stretching vibration has peculiarity for identifying C2O62- in ILs. This will open new doors to utilize CO2 in industrial applications with the aid of reactive oxygen species.

A Process Study on Thinning of Arctic Winter Cirrus Clouds With High‐Resolution ICON‐ART Simulations

AbstractIn this study, cloud‐resolving simulations of a case study for a limited area of the hibernal Arctic were performed with the atmospheric modeling system ICON‐ART (ICOsahedral Nonhydrostatic‐Aerosol and Reactive Trace gases). A thorough comparison with data both from satellite as well as aircraft measurement is presented to validate the simulations. In addition, the model is applied to clarify the microphysical processes occurring when introducing artificial aerosol particles into the upper troposphere with the aim of modifying cirrus clouds in the framework of climate engineering. Former modeling studies investigating the climate effect of this method were performed with simplifying assumptions and much coarser resolution, reaching partly contradicting conclusions concerning the method's effectiveness. The primary effect of seeding is found to be a reduction of ice crystal number concentrations in cirrus clouds, leading to increased outgoing longwave radiative fluxes at the top of the atmosphere, thereby creating a cooling effect. Furthermore, a secondary effect is found, as ice crystals formed from the injected seeding aerosol particles lead to enhanced riming of cloud droplets within the planetary boundary layer. This effectively reduces the coverage of mixed‐phase clouds, thus generating additional cooling by increased upward longwave radiative fluxes at the surface. The efficacy of seeding cirrus clouds proves to be relatively independent from the atmospheric background conditions, scales with the number concentrations of seeding particles, and is highest for large aerosol particles.

The Response of Permafrost and High‐Latitude Ecosystems Under Large‐Scale Stratospheric Aerosol Injection and Its Termination

AbstractClimate engineering arises as one of the potential methods that could contribute to meeting the 1.5 °C global warming target agreed under the Paris Agreement. We examine how permafrost and high‐latitude vegetation respond to the large‐scale implementation of climate engineering. Specifically, we explore the impacts of applying the solar radiation management method of stratospheric aerosol injections (SAI) on permafrost temperature and the global extent of near‐surface permafrost area. We compare the RCP8.5 and RCP4.5 scenarios to several SAI deployment scenarios using the Norwegian Earth System Model (CE1 = moderate SAI scenario to bring down the global mean warming in RCP8.5 to the RCP4.5 level, CE2 = aggresive SAI scenario to maintain the global mean temperature toward the preindustrial level). We show that large‐scale application of SAI may help slow down the current rate of permafrost degradation for a wide range of emission scenarios. Between the RCP4.5 and CE1 simulations, the differences in the permafrost degradation may be attributed to the spatial variations in surface air temperature, rainfall, and snowfall, which lead to the differences in the timing of permafrost degradation up to 40 years. Although atmospheric temperatures in CE1 and RCP4.5 simulations are similar, net primary production is higher in CE1 due to CO2 fertilization. Our investigation of permafrost extent under large‐scale SAI application scenarios suggests that circum‐Arctic permafrost area and extent is rather sensitive to temperature changes created under such SAI application. Our results highlight the importance of investigating the regional effects of climate engineering, particularly in high‐latitude ecosystems.

Seeding the clouds to reach the sky: Will China's weather modification practices support the legitimization of climate engineering?

In this Perspective, we discuss whether in times of quickly proceeding global environmental change, radical global interventions like "climate engineering" may gain legitimacy in China and eventually be deployed or supported. We argue that one cornerstone for whether climate engineering, and solar radiation management in particular, could gain legitimacy in China, is its current weather modification programme. In China, weather modification is institutionalized and deployed on a large scale, and current narratives around the legitimacy to intervene into the local climate may provide a rationale for interventions such as solar radiation management. In the end, in the same way as Deng Xiaoping coined the phrase "stepping on stones to cross the river" in the era of China's Industrial Civilization, narrating China's "Ecological Civilization" may want to make use of "seeding the clouds to reach the sky". [See ESM for a summary of the article in Chinese.].

Tools of the trade: practices and politics of researching the future in climate engineering

Making sense of the implications of climate engineering approaches (solar radiation management, SRM; and carbon dioxide removal, CDR) at planetary scales occurs via a host of methods that calculate, project, and imagine the future in distinct ways. We take a systemic and synthesizing view of some of the (inter)disciplinary methods by which these futures are derived: climate and integrated assessment modeling, ‘deductive’ modes of social science inquiry, deliberative stakeholder engagement, and foresight-based scenarios. We speak to the epistemologies, objectives, and user communities surrounding these research practices, highlighting that different modes of constructing and interpreting evidence about an unformed future yield different kinds of results and signals for actions to be taken. We show how different methods for exploring ‘futures’ form an evolving history of how the risks of CE have been assessed (or constructed), and conclude by echoing calls for a stronger shared understanding of the practices and politics that underpin future-oriented research.

The Engineering of Climate Engineering

While reducing anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions remains the most essential element of any strategy to manage climate change risk, it is also in principle possible to directly cool the climate by reflecting some sunlight back to space. Such climate engineering approaches include adding aerosols to the stratosphere and marine cloud brightening. Assessing whether these ideas could reduce risk requires a broad, multidisciplinary research effort spanning climate science, social sciences, and governance. However, if such strategies were ever used, the effort would also constitute one of the most critical engineering design and control challenges ever considered: making real-time decisions for a highly uncertain and nonlinear dynamic system with many input variables, many measurements, and a vast number of internal degrees of freedom, the dynamics of which span a wide range of timescales. Here, we review the engineering design aspects of climate engineering, discussing both progress to date and remaining challenges that will need to be addressed.

Foresight must guide geoengineering research and development

Foresight must guide geoengineering research and development

SCALES OF DISTRIBUTION AND ACTIVITY OF MANIFESTATIONS OF LANDSLIDE PROCESSES IN KABARDINO-BALKAR REPUBLIC

results of systematization and analysis of various sources containing information on scales of distribution and activity of manifestation of landslide processes in Kabardino-Balkar Republic are considered. It is shown that landslide activity in the republic is controlled by the climatic conditions (heavy rains, snow cover and glacier melting, river erosion) and engineering and economic development. Set of major factors of the natural and technogenic environment and degree of their influence on landslide activity differ by years. Conducted analysis of landslide activity in the republic for the last 15 years showed that the greatest degree of landslide activity was noted in 2012–2014, the smallest — in 2007. Results of estimating the scales of landslide distribution in the territory of the republic are presented including the map form. Analysis of the most significant landslides occurred in 2004–2018 and consequences of their manifestation is carried out for the main river basins (Malka, Baksan, Chegem, Cherek) of the republic. Most often landslide deformations occur due to the undercutting of slopes by highways. For each main river basin of the republic the general data on the landslide genesis, dynamic state, composition of landslide rocks, minimum and maximum values of area, volume and thickness are given. For each altitude zone (foothill, low-, medium- and high-mountain) of the main river valleys of the republic the most dangerous landslides are defined. Data on their sizes, volume and intensity of activization are given.

Carbon Dioxide Removal after Paris

Notwithstanding adoption of the Paris Agreement on climate change, mitigation of greenhouse gas emissions appears unlikely to achieve the stated goal of limiting the mean global temperature increase to 2°C. Under many scenarios, achieving this goal would require not only vigorous mitigation efforts, but also the deployment of carbon dioxide removal (CDR) technologies or solar geoengineering. While serious consideration of solar geoengineering remains fraught with peril, the use of CDR to remove carbon dioxide from the atmosphere and store it elsewhere appears increasingly likely. CDR techniques generally would have to be undertaken on a massive scale to be effective. However, the techniques are not ready for deployment, and their widespread use would impact land use, biodiversity, food security, water availability, and other resources. The potential impacts of widespread CDR deployment demand greater attention to managing CDR efforts and their effects. The Paris Agreement does not directly mention CDR, however, and relatively little attention has been directed to CDR governance thus far. This Article explores key issues of CDR governance, such as promoting the generation of information, mainstreaming CDR into public and policy discussions, and furthering CDR development while avoiding lock-in of suboptimal technologies.

Optimal key elements of geoengineering integration in Changning National Shale Gas Demonstration Zone

Optimal key elements of geoengineering integration in Changning National Shale Gas Demonstration Zone

Future objects: tracing the socio-material politics of anticipation

This paper advances current scholarship on future practices and anticipation arguing that the ways in which we engage in future making not only rely on distinct practices but also on objects, future objects. Future objects are defined as an array of socio-material entities that underpin future practices. In drawing on science studies, this paper develops a typology of future objects that takes as its ordering mechanism the political work future objects perform. Type one future objects are solid and ready to use. Their political work is to secure the present by allowing for political agreements that concern the future. Based on a linear model of expertise, this type of future object provides answers in speaking truth to power. Bodies and instruments, databases and power points are involved when producing, as well as performing, type one objects. Type two future objects are about the experimental infrastructure for creating futures. Foresight conferences organize space with the aim in mind to come up with novel visions of sustainable futures in the Anthropocene. Finally, type three future objects are more fluid and still in the making. They are collectively worked on in iterative cycles. Examples range from prototypes of climate engineering to negotiation texts of global environmental agreements. They operate as a centering device and materialize in artifacts integrating participants contributions. In outlining the difference between the three object types, the paper elaborates on the environmental politics of anticipation especially with regard to science policy interaction.

Rich man\u2019s solution? Climate engineering discourses and the marginalization of the Global South

Numerous recent studies project that ‘climate engineering’ technologies might need to play a major role in the future. Such technologies may carry major risks for developing countries that are often especially vulnerable to, and lack adaptive capacity to deal with, the impacts of such new technologies. In this situation, one would expect that developing countries—especially the least developed countries that are most vulnerable—should play a central role in the emerging discourse on climate engineering. And yet, as this article shows in detail, the discussion about whether and how to engage with these technologies is shaped by experts from just a small set of countries in the Global North. Knowledge production around climate engineering remains heavily dominated by the major research institutions in North America and Europe. Drawing on information from 70 climate engineering events between 2009 and 2017 along with extensive document analysis, the article maps a lack of involvement of developing countries and highlights the degree to which their concerns remain insufficiently represented in politically significant scientific assessment reports. The article concludes by sketching options that developing countries may have to influence the agenda on climate engineering, reflecting on earlier attempts to increase control over novel technologies and influence global agenda setting.

The State of the Netherlands v Urgenda Foundation: The Hague Court of Appeal upholds judgment requiring the Netherlands to further reduce its greenhouse gas emissions

One of the world's most successful climate litigation cases thus far, the remarkable Urgenda ruling by a Dutch Court in 2015, survived appeal. In October 2018, the Court of Appeal of The Hague rejected all of the State's objections, including that on the alleged infringement of the balance of powers principle. The court confirmed that, when so asked by individuals or nongovernmental organizations, courts are obliged to assess government actions (including policies) against human rights obligations. By setting the required outcome of policies (at least 25 percent emissions reduction by the end of 2020), the court left it up to the Dutch Government and Parliament to discuss which policy interventions to adopt to achieve this outcome. The Court of Appeal also confirmed, and sometimes even put greater emphasis on, a number of important elements of the Urgenda ruling, such as the role of the precautionary principle, the issue of causality (including the ‘drop in the ocean’ argument put forward by the State) and the potential role of climate engineering.