Generational Turnover Research Articles

Trends in American Jewish Attachment to Israel: An Assessment of the “Distancing” Hypothesis

In recent years, social scientists have claimed that American Jews, in particular in the younger generation, have grown more distant from Israel. This paper draws on evidence from national surveys conducted over two decades to assess the “distancing hypothesis.” The survey data suggest that emotional attachment to Israel has varied within a narrow band, with no consistent pattern of increase or decrease. Predictions of distancing appear to be incorrect and several factors which were presumed to underlie distancing are examined: generational turnover, intermarriage and political alienation. These factors appear to have only small impact on the overall level of American Jewish attachment to Israel. An alternative narrative is suggested and the implications for the future relationship of American Jews to Israel are discussed.

Pollution and life expectancy: How environmental policy can promote growth

This article investigates the influence of environmental policy (EP) on growth in an AK-type growth model, when finite lifetime is introduced and the link between pollution and life expectancy (through the detrimental impact of pollution on health) is taken into account.Using an overlapping generations model à la Blanchard [Blanchard, O. (1985). Debt, deficits and finite horizon. Journal of Political Economy, 93:223–247], we demonstrate that finite lifetime introduces a “generational turnover effect” which modifies the influence of the EP on growth. Thus, when lifetime is finite and independent from pollution, we show that the “generational turnover effect” limits the detrimental impact of the EP on growth, if agents smooth their consumption over time. When pollution negatively influences life expectancy through health, we demonstrate that the “generational turnover effect” is magnified and that the EP and growth have an inverted U-shaped relationship in the steady-state. In this case, we show that the environmental policy is more likely to promote growth (i.e. it stimulates growth for a wider range of environmental taxes) when the impact of pollution on health is important and/or public expenditures in health are low. Finally, using numerical simulations, we find that for the value of parameters that we have chosen, the EP will be more likely to promote growth when agents smooth consumption over time.

Environmental Policy, Education and Growth: A Reappraisal when Lifetime is Finite

This article demonstrates that when finite lifetime is introduced in a Lucas (1988) growth model, the environmental policy may enhance growth both in the short- and the long-run, while pollution does not influence educational activities, labor supply is not elastic and human capital does not enter the utility function. This is because finite lifetime and the appearance of newborns at each date creates a turnover of generations which disconnects the aggregate consumption growth to the interest rate. We show that the shorter is the horizon, the greater the of the environmental policy on growth, because the higher the generational turnover effect. We also demonstrate that when time is not the single production factor in education, the environmental policy promotes growth only if time remains the predominant factor. Otherwise, the crowding-out of the tighter environmental policy dominates the generational turnover effect and growth diminishes. Finally, when the source of pollution is final output rather than physical capital and time is the single factor in education, the environmental does not affect growth in the steady-state, despite the generational turnover effect. Nevertheless, if the education good is introduced, the positive influence of the environmental policy appears again.

Can the North Korean regime survive Kim Jong Il?

Abstract This paper analyzes several leadership scenarios that might unfold in the wake of Kim Jong Il's sudden death or removal from power. Over the past year, the North Korean leadership has undergone numerous changes as key figures in the regime passed away, were purged, or retired (actively or figuratively). Whether this constitutes a generational turnover inside the leadership is open to interpretation. In addition, key institutions, such as the National Defense Commission, have been reconfigured in what appears to some as a step toward preparing the regime for the eventual post-Kim succession. At the same time, the regime is fraught with competing individuals and institutions that might play a role in determining the new leadership configuration. Besides examining the most popular scenario, dynastic succession, this paper examines the possibility of other scenarios, such as the rise of a military strongman, warlordism, collective leadership, as well as the likelihood that the regime will collapse. T...

THE MACROECONOMIC DYNAMICS OF DEMOGRAPHIC SHOCKS

The paper employs an extended Yaari-Blanchard model of overlapping generations to study how the macroeconomy is affected over time by various demographic changes. It is shown that a proportional decline in fertility and death rates has qualitatively similar effects to capital income subsidies; both per capita savings and per capita consumption increase in the new steady state. A drop in the birth rate, although keeping the death rate constant, reduces per capita savings, but increases per capita consumption if the generational turnover effect is dominated by the intertemporal labor supply effect. If the generational turnover effect is sufficiently strong, however, a decline in the birth rate may, contrary to standard results, give rise to an increase in per capita savings. Finally, a fertility rate reduction that leaves unaffected the rate of generational turnover is shown to have effects qualitatively similar to those of a fall in public consumption. Both per capita savings and per capita output decline, but per capita private consumption rises.

Fiscal policy, monopolistic competition, and finite lives

This paper studies the short-run, transitional, and long-run output effects of permanent and temporary shocks in public consumption under various financing methods. To this end, a dynamic macroeconomic model for a closed economy is developed, which features a perfectly competitive final goods sector and a monopolistically competitive intermediate goods sector. Finitely lived households consume final goods, supply labor, and save part of their income. Amongst the findings for a permanent rise in public consumption are: (i) monopolistic competition increases the absolute value of the balanced-budget output multiplier; (ii) positive long-run output multipliers are obtained only if the generational turnover effect is dominated by the intertemporal labor supply effect; (iii) short-run output multipliers under lump-sum tax financing are smaller than long-run output multipliers if labor supply is elastic; and (iv) bond financing reduces the size of long-run output multipliers as compared to lump-sum tax financing and may give rise to non-monotonic adjustment paths if labor supply is sufficiently elastic and the speed of adjustment of lump-sum taxes is not too high. Temporary bond-financed fiscal shocks are shown to yield: (i) permanent effects on output; and (ii) negative long-run output multipliers.

Training a Critical Factor for Future Workforce

This article addresses training issues arising from the generational turnover in staff expected in the next couple decades as the baby‐boom generation retires and automated workplaces become more common. The article discusses components that should be included in upgrades of training programs that include: training on processes that use a higher level of technology; cross‐training for staff flexibility; teaching supervisory and managerial skills to existing staff who will replace retiring workers; and, adapting to the needs of a nontraditional labor pool. Operator certification is discussed, with suggestions given for a new global method of training for certification.

Fiscal Policy, Monopolistic Competition, and Finite Lives

The paper studies the short-run, transitional, and long-run output effects of permanent and temporary shocks in public consumption under various financing methods. To this end, a dynamic macroeconomic model for a closed economy is developed, which features a perfectly competitive final goods sector and a monopolistically competitive intermediate goods sector. Finitely lived households consume final goods, supply labor, and save part of their income. Amongst the findings for a permanent rise in public consumption are: (i) monopolistic competition increases the absolute value of the balanced-budget output multiplier; (ii) positive long-run output multipliers are obtained only if the generational turnover effect is dominated by the intertemporal labor supply effect; (iii) short-run output multipliers under lump-sum tax financing are smaller than long-run output multipliers if labor supply is elastic; and (iv) bond financing reduces the size of long-run output multipliers as compared to lump-sum tax financing and may give rise to non-monotonic adjustment paths if labor supply is sufficiently elastic and the speed of adjustment of lump-sum taxes is not too high. Temporary bond-financed fiscal shocks are shown to yield: (i) permanent effects on output; and (ii) negative long-run output multipliers.

Relationships between generations in post-Emancipation Lithuania (1864–1904)

One of the most powerful influences on modern peasant studies has been Chayanov's notion that the peasant farm household balanced the labour efforts of a household and its consumer demands. As a result, peasant households have been seen as autarchic units of production and consumption, and peasant strategies were held to be designed to preserve the common enterprise in which everyone was expected to work and pool resources, and to maintain the integrity of the original holding, of which all family members were expected to receive an equal share. This article focuses on familial strategies of Lithuanian peasants after the abolition of serfdom in the second half of the nineteenth century and argues that the strategies of different generations were shaped by a multiplicity of dependencies, a constant reshuffle of resources and the maximum utilization of land and labour. Examination of the pattern of generational turnover and of the working arrangements between parents and adult children suggests that relationships between the generations were built on reciprocity and that co-operation or some other mutual help was essential in the post-emancipation village.

What future for the policy sciences?

The term refers both to a distinctive tradition within the policy movement and to the broader policy movement itself. While the generic use of this term is sure to persist, the community of policy scientists trained in the tradition founded by Harold Lasswell and Myres S. McDougal faces challenges to its sustainability as a distinctive tradition of the policy movement. To motivate open discussion and debate, this essay follows the logic of a problem-oriented analysis, and also includes personal reflections and anecdote, with the following objectives: It suggests that the policy sciences tradition faces challenges to its sustainability because of the simple arithmetic of generational turnover in university faculty. It explores six factors internal and external to the policy sciences community militating against sustainability. The essay then critiques three different roles the policy scientist might play in contemporary academia, and concludes with a discussion of alternatives that might enhance the sustainability of the policy sciences tradition, should sustainability indeed be a desired outcome.

The Macroeconomic Dynamics of Demographic Shocks

The paper employs an extended Yaari-Blanchard model of overlapping generations to study how the macroeconomy is affected over time by various demographic changes. It is shown that a proportional decline in fertility and death rates has qualitatively similar effects to capital income subsidies; both per capita savings and per capita consumption increase in the new steady state. A drop in the birth rate, while keeping the death rate constant, reduces per capita savings, but increases per capita consumption if the generational turnover effect is dominated by the intertemporal labor supply effect. If the generational turnover effect is sufficiently strong, however, a decline in the birth rate may, contrary to standard results, give rise to an increase in per capita savings. Finally, a fertility rate reduction which leaves unaffected the rate of generational turnover is shown to have effects qualitatively similar to those of a fall in public consumption. Both per capita savings and per capita output decline, but per capita consumption rises.

Power Transition and the Making of Beijing's Policy towards Taiwan

Few policy domains can come close to Taiwan affairs in exemplifying the way Jiang's reigning authority has been self-extended beyond his official tenure. Fighting for his place in history, Jiang's desire to reset the cross-Strait scoreboard before his full retirement remains strong. Also, the structure of the newly elected SCP clearly reinforces Jiang's ability to cast a long shadow over Hu for some time to come. Hu is thus expected to adhere with great caution to Jiang's updated policy guidelines on Taiwan affairs, as laid out in the retiring general secretary's farewell Party work report to the CCP 16th Congress. Besides, Hu has few incentives not to because the Taiwan affairs portfolio carries excessive risk and a slow return, in addition to being one of the policy areas that he is least prepared for. However, the symbolic significance of the Taiwan issue also means that the generational turnover from Jiang to Hu cannot be considered complete until Hu takes full command over Beijing's policy towards Taiwan.

Sizing Up Taiwan's Political Earthquake

On March 18, 2000, Taiwan experienced an electoral earthquake. After half a century in power on the island of Taiwan and eight decades of an undisrupted ruling position dating back to its heyday on the Chinese mainland, the Kuomintang (KMT) lost power in a free and fair presidential election. The power rotation at the close of the century is historic by any measure. It has closed an epoch of one-party dominance and inaugurated a period of party dealignment and realignment. It deflated Lee Teng-hui's charisma and brought his era to an abrupt and calamitous end. At the elite level, it has triggered a generational turnover, pushing the baby boomers to the forefront of governing responsibility. Most significantly, it pushed the island's political system for a major step forward toward the consolidation of democracy.

Consistency or Change in Women's Politicization in South Korea

Using 1982 and 1990 survey data, this paper examines the extent to which the gender gap in politicization has persisted and/or changed in South Korea. The core emphasis of the paper is on whether economic development and generational turnover hove reduced gender inequality in some altitudes–psychological involvement, protest potential, system trust–that are important for political activity. The findings indicate that both economic development and generational shift have narrowed the gender gap in politicization over an eight‐year period. It should be emphasized, however, that the socio‐political structure has not caught up with Korean women's attitudinal changes, thus resulting in a phenomenon of “institutional lag.”

Generational Effects on Attitudes to Communist Regimes: A Comparative Analysis

Based on survey data, collected in 1993 and 1994 from eleven post-communist societies (N = 13,614), the authors investigate empirically the extent to which generations differ in their retrospective evaluations of their defunct Communist political regimes and command economies. While the aggregate level of approval of the old regime varies between countries, within almost every country a similar pattern of generational differences is found: the youngest generation is least approving of the old regime. The generational effect remains when controls are introduced for education. Generational turnover, reinforced by changes in political socialization caused by the collapse of Communist regimes, is eroding nostalgia for a Communist past. And even among generations most nostalgic about the former political and economic orders, there is very little endorsement of a reactionary return to Communist rule. Journal of Economic Literature, Classification Numbers: H19, P29.

The survival of a cooperative tradition in the intergroup discontinuity context

Interindividual-intergroup discontinuity is the tendency, in mixed-motive situations, for groups to interact more competitively, or less cooperatively, than individuals, even though mutual competition yields worse results that mutual cooperation. The present laboratory experiment attempted to assess whether the discontinuity effect could be reduced by the establishment of an intergroup cooperative tradition. Cooperation between intact pairs of groups was induced by placing in each group confederates who successfully convinced their fellow group members of the long-term advantage of trust and cooperation. On subsequent blocks of trails, the confederate was replaced by an actual subject, and then each of the original subjects was replaced so as to simulate generational turnover. By the time all initial members were replaced, their level of cooperation had eroded to the level of groups never experiencing mutual cooperation. The results are discussed in the context of other means of reducing discontinuity.

Called home: The creation of family life

Engendering family life is a spiritual process (theosis) based on human ethological constants of gender difference and generational turnover. Recent studies on ethnicity suggest that such a process retrieves a primordial sense of the human species as a whole, "humankind." Families, especially in this broad sense, link together the living and the dead and, at their best, morally empower individuals who link their destinies to such a vision of creation and human health. Reference is made to work on human strengths and speciation by Erik Erikson and to that on maternal thinking by Sara Ruddick. A political program by which an ideology of "familism" can be made is offered.

A Stock‐Flow Model to Analyse and Forecast Labour Market Variables

ABSTRACT: In confronting problems of employment and unemployment, students of the labour market, and economists in general have focused mainly on the determination of the level of such variables.Much less attention has been paid to such questions as: how many persons have entered the area of employment and the labour force in various time periods, and how many have exited; their sex and age distribution; and the determinants of the level and structure of flows amongst the various labour market conditions. Yet it appears superfluous to underscore the relevance of such questions. To illustrate, suffice it to recall that in Italy, the present level of employment is essentially the same today as it was in 1961‘; but this has not prevented whole generations of young people from 'stably’entering the employment area, albeit with varying degrees of difficulty in different periods.As for the numerous statistical surveys of labour market flows in a range of countries, and as for the works of job search theorists2, it should be observed that such surveys and analyses essentially concern conjunctural phenomena. Consequently, these authors have paid no attention to the distinction between short‐run turnover and generational turnover, or to the extremely singular characteristics of the statistical data on flows. An attempt to construct labour market models that present an integrated version of the 'structural’aspects of the market in terms of stock and flows is therefore lacking.The present study sets forth various objectives and is divided into two parts.In the first, an analysis of several controversial terminological aspects of the concepts of stock and flow is presented, and an attempt is made to point out those theoretical structures which have been responsible for the long‐prevailing neglect of the labour market flows, particularly long‐run flows. Then the problem of defining the concepts of short‐run and generational turnover will be confronted in light of an analysis of the statistical methods used in the surveys; finally, a methodology for measuring generational flows is proposed.In the second part of the paper a model based on generational flows, as previously defined, will be presented together with a computational procedure capable to produce long run estimates of alternative scenarios of labour demand and supply and of the structure of employment by sex and age. A brief summary of some of the empirical results obtained applying our model and forecasting procedure to the Italian labour market will also be discussed in the final part of the paper.

American and German Trends in Sex Differences in Political Participation

This study examines the impact of economic development and generational turnover on trends in sex differences in political participation. Election studies of the United States and West Germany are the sources of the trend data, which cover the period between 1952-1953 and 1980. Controls are imposed for increased education levels, the decreased preponderance of rural residents and farming families, and the replacement of older generations by younger ones. The results show that these socioeconomic processes have had a negligible impact on the sex difference trends. Furthermore, these socioeconomic processes cannot explain the variations in the rate of change by nation and by indicator of political participation. The article identifies different configurations of factors affecting the trends in voter turnout, in media attention and discussion, and in organizationally related types of campaign activity.