Generalized Method Of Moments Research Articles

Oil price volatility and changes in corporate debt: An empirical study in the Indian landscape

Changes in crude oil prices affect corporate debt position. This study investigates the association between changes in debt and crude oil price volatility in nonfinancial, BG, and SA firms in India. We use financial variables, crude oil prices, and macroeconomics data from 2004 to 2020 for 16,452 firm-years and this study employs unbalanced panel data and utilizes different empirical methodologies, including the generalised method of moments (GMM) estimator, to test the stated hypotheses. The results reveal that the debt position and the crude oil price volatility significantly have different effects on business group (BG) and stand-alone (SA) firms. Crude oil price volatility is positively related to changes in the debt position. The effects of the financial variables also significantly differ for the BG and SA firms. Finally, firms change their debt position in the positive or negative direction based on the fluctuations in crude oil prices. Policy implications have also been provided.

Does education promote risk-taking? Evidence from Vietnam

PurposeThis study examines the impact of schooling on risk perceptions and the moderation role of a non-cognitive skill, locus of control.Design/methodology/approachUsing information from the Thailand Vietnam Socio Economic Panel data set, the study employs Generalised Method of Moments (GMM) to address the potential endogeneity problem of the schooling variable.FindingsThe findings indicate that a higher level of willingness to take risks is correlated with additional schooling years. In other words, those with higher levels of education are more prone to take more risks. The result demonstrates that the association between education and risk attitudes is moderated by locus of control.Originality/valueThis study contributes to the growing literature on education in emerging countries by addressing the endogeneity problem of schooling variables using the GMM method. Moreover, this study examines the mediating role of personal non-cognitive skills, namely locus of control, in the relationship between education and risk attitudes.

Beyond borders: Assessing the influence of Geopolitical tensions on sovereign risk dynamics

We assess the impact of geopolitical risk and world uncertainty on the sovereign debt risk of 26 European Economies during the period 1984–2022, through the implementation of OLS-Fixed Effects regressions and the Generalized Method of Moments (GMM). We find that geopolitical tensions and global uncertainty in border countries contribute to the rise of European country's sovereign risk as measured by 5- and 10-year Credit Default Swaps (CDS) and bond returns. Moreover, this interconnection is more pronounced during turbulent times such as the subprime crisis. Lastly, we found that geopolitical tensions in other country’ groups such as South America and Asia have a significant impact on the government risks of European countries.

From black to green: Quantifying the impact of economic growth, resource management, and green technologies on CO2 emissions

In an exploration of environmental concerns, this groundbreaking research delves into the relationship between GDP per capita, coal rents, forest rents, mineral rents, oil rents, natural gas rents, fossil fuels, renewables, environmental tax and environment-related technologies on CO2 emissions in 30 highly emitting countries from 1995 to 2021 using instrumental-variables regression Two-Stage least squares (IV-2SLS) regression and two-step system generalized method of moments (GMM) estimates. Our results indicate a significant positive relationship between economic growth and CO2 emissions across all quantiles, showcasing an EKC with diminishing marginal effects. Coal rents exhibit a statistically significant negative relationship with emissions, particularly in higher quantiles, and mineral rents show a negative association with CO2 emissions in lower and middle quantiles, reinforcing the idea of resource management in emissions reduction. Fossil fuels exert a considerable adverse impact on emissions, with a rising effect in progressive quantiles. Conversely, renewable energy significantly curtails CO2 emissions, with higher impacts in lower quantiles. Environmental tax also mitigates CO2 emissions. Environment-related technologies play a pivotal role in emission reduction, particularly in lower and middle quantiles, emphasizing the need for innovative solutions. These findings provide valuable insights for policymakers, highlighting the importance of tailoring interventions to different emission levels and leveraging diverse strategies for sustainable development.

Commodity price volatility, institutions and economic growth: An empirical investigation

AbstractThis article investigates the role of institutional quality in transmitting effects of commodity price volatility to economic growth. To do so, we collect data on 107 primary commodity exporting countries in both developing and developed ones over the period 1976–2015. Our empirical approach is based on Solow growth model framework (Solow, R. M. (1956). The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 70(1), 65) and consists of estimating a dynamic panel model using the two‐step system GMM estimator. Our results show evidence that commodity price booms are associated with good economic performances that are unfortunately wiped out by the negative effects of price volatility in developing commodity‐dependent countries (CDCs). The main channel through which this volatility affects economic growth turns out to be through factor productivity. Finally, we have formally established that the negative effect of price volatility in CDCs is mainly due to the poor quality of institutions in these countries. These results suggest that it is important for commodity‐exporting economies, especially developing CDCs, to work on building strong economic and political institutions to guard against the risk of commodity price volatility.

From Kyoto to Paris and beyond: A deep dive into the green shift

This study investigates the impact of the Kyoto Protocol and its associated regime, the Paris Agreement, on environmental outcomes and the green transition. We employ a difference-in-differences (DD) specification for country-level panel data from 1995 to 2018. The DD estimates suggest that the Kyoto Protocol of 2005 significantly reduced CO2 emissions and natural resources rents by around 20 percent and decreased the quantity of non-renewable electricity generated by about 36 percent, relative to the pre-Kyoto period. The protocol also led to increases in renewable energy consumption and generation of 18 percent and 60 percent, respectively. Robustness checks using system GMM estimates confirm that the effects of the Kyoto Protocol are likely not biased because of dynamic endogeneity from simultaneity problems or confounding trends. For the Paris Agreement, given documented issues in interpreting the average treatment effects using standard two-way fixed effects (TWFE), we leverage a DD specification with multiple treatment timings. We find no statistically significant effect of the Paris Agreement 2016 on the green transition except that it contributes to reducing CO2 emissions. The absence of a significant impact from the ad hoc Paris Agreement on most outcomes points to the need for greater effort in implementing environmental treaties.

Growth and distribution regimes under global value chains: Diversification, integration, and uneven development

This study investigates the macroeconomic interactions between productive structure and income distribution in the context of Global Value Chains (GVC). Our research goes beyond the traditional scope by presenting a detailed typology that examines how globalisation has amplified uneven development processes on a global scale. This in-depth exploration provides valuable insights into the intricate interplay between global economic integration and regional development disparities, thereby contributing to the broader understanding of growth and distribution in the context of globalisation. We propose a theoretical framework inspired by the Structuralist literature to identify three distinct regimes in globalised production chains: (1) a structure/diversification regime based on the Balance of Payments Constrained Model (BPCM) literature, (2) an integration regime derived from the GVC literature, and (3) a functional income distribution regime in open economies. We use Principal Component Analysis (PCA) to create indices (proxies) for each regime to then identify country patterns within a structured typology. We then analyse growth trajectories and estimate the causal relationship between these regimes and per-capita growth using multiple regression models – fixed effects (FE), instrumental variables (IV), and generalised method of moments (GMM). Our dataset includes data from 60 countries between 1995 and 2018, sourced from the World Development Indicators (WDI), World Input-Output Database (WIOD), Trade in Value Added (TiVA), and the Penn World Tables (PWT). This study significantly enhances the understanding of structuralist growth models by offering a comprehensive and unified narrative on the variety of economic growth regimes within Global Value Chains (GVCs).

Government infrastructure investment stimulation through booming natural resources: Evidence from a lower-middle-income country.

The dynamics of central government funding to regions depend on local investments. In regional autonomy, local governments are encouraged to be more self-reliant from the central government. For regions with high natural resource yields, they will not encounter difficulties in meeting their fiscal needs. Community welfare can be realized through fulfilling basic needs, one of which is infrastructure development. High-quality infrastructure will be able to contribute to further progress in trade, thus enhancing production efficiency. The objective of this research is to analyze the extent of the influence of central government transfer funds, especially the Natural Resource Revenue Sharing Funds (DBH SDA), on local government investments in infrastructure across 508 districts/cities in Indonesia. The method used is dynamic panel regression using the Generalized Method of Moment (GMM) Arellano-Bond approach. This study finds that the role of DBH SDA is still low in infrastructure spending. The role of the central government remains significant in determining infrastructure spending at the district/city level in Indonesia. This indicates that local governments rely more on other sectors in infrastructure investment. By enhancing the role of DBH SDA through technological advancements, it is hoped that the market value of natural resources can be higher through resource downstreaming. This strategy will have broader impacts, as labor needs can be absorbed not only in raw material production activities but also in the processing technology sector. Furthermore, the utilization of natural resources with modern technology can increase extraction efficiency, support sustainable development, and minimize environmental impacts.

Economic globalisation and Africa's quest for greener and more inclusive growth: The missing link

This study examines the contingency and threshold effects of economic freedom in the economic globalisation (EG) and inclusive green growth (IGG) relationship. To this end, we apply the fixed-effects generalized method of moments with Driscoll-Kraay standard errors estimator to macro data for the period 2008–2020 for 22 selected African countries. The following findings are established. First, we find that economic freedom reduces the negative effect of EG on IGG. Second, when we disaggregate EG into financial and trade globalisation, we show that the moderating effect of economic freedom on the former is rather striking. Third, our threshold analysis suggests that by improving Africa's unfree economic architecture to 60% (moderately free), the IGG-deteriorating marginal effects of EG are significantly mitigated (but not nullified). We conclude that unless an effort is made to improve economic freedom in Africa, the envisaged IGG gains of economic globalisation might prove elusive.

Corporate governance, social responsibility and sustainability commitments by banks: Impacts on credit risk and performance

AbstractWith the increasing pressures to commit to social and environmental issues, banks align with stakeholders' expectations via corporate social responsibility (CSR), and sustainable development goals (SDGs) initiatives. Understanding how these initiatives affect credit risk and performance of banks is crucial for the economy. Relying on the dynamic generalized method of moments and data on Thai listed commercial banks from 2015 to 2020, we find commitments to good governance, CSR and SDGs largely have an opposite effect on bank credit risk and performance. Consistent with stewardship or resource dependency hypothesis, together with stakeholder and good management hypothesis, banks with more female directors, higher levels of anti‐corruption and SDGs commitments are associated with a reduction in credit risk. However, consistent with queen bee hypothesis and agency and trade‐off hypothesis, banks with larger board size, more female directors and higher levels of CSR and SDGs commitments underperform. This apparent contradiction between negative impacts on bank performance and positive impacts on credit risk can be reconciled by understanding the trade‐offs involved, the long‐term focus of sustainability initiatives, leading to a decline in short‐term performance but enhancing their resilience to adverse events, ultimately reducing credit risk. Our findings enable stakeholders to make informed decisions, improve sustainable business practices, and contribute to the long‐term success of banks and the broader society.

Drivers of Inclusive Development: An Empirical Investigation

Concerns about socially uneven progress and inequality have regained public attention (including that of many populist politicians). The purpose of this paper is to identify the economic policies as well as economic factors that facilitate inclusive development. This paper is a first attempt to empirically estimate the drivers of inclusive development. For our empirical assessments, we apply the Multidimensional Inclusiveness Index suggested by Dörffel and Schuhmann (2022) in a panel OLS regression setup with fixed effects (FE) and GMM estimations for up to 178 countries and a time frame ranging from 1980 to 2018. In FE regressions, we find robust associations with inflation as well as financial sector development in the short and long-run, trade/GDP in the long-run. The GMM results point only to inflation and trade as significant drivers in the long-run and investment in the short run. These results suggest that accessible and well-functioning financial markets paired with low rates of inflation and high trade openness take on a more critical role than government spending. Our results suggest that rudiments of the Washington consensus could still guide the promotion of inclusive development.

Evaluating strategies to persist for digital platform firms in a post-digitalization era: an empirical evidence from Indian platform firms

PurposeThe dynamic and evolving nature of the market calls for attention to digital platform firms' survival strategies, building agility for persistence in a continuously changing business environment. In India, the government’s adoption of the Digital Policy is one such change in the business environment for the firms that impact almost all sectors. Such policies cause a disruption wherein digital platform firms must be agile and create a strategic response that will endure any changes. The present study attempts to gain insight into the competitive strategies adopted by the digital platform firms of the consumer durables industry in India, which are implemented to facilitate their growth.Design/methodology/approachThe entire study is conducted in two phases. Phase one includes identifying strategies sampled digital platform firms adopted in response to the digitalization policy, and the second phase evaluates the significance of the adopted plans to persist.FindingsWhile clubbing the 42 strategic responses to a few aggregate dimensions, the study found four types of responses adopted by the digital platform firms in the consumer durable industry to persist in the market. Using a two-step system, the Generalized Method of Moments (GMM) approach, the study found that all four dimensions are statistically significant, positively impacting these firms' profitability.Practical implicationsThe study contributes to the knowledge base of strategic responses to persist for the incumbent platform firms in a dynamic business environment.Originality/valueThe study answers the pertinent research question of how such strategic decisions may be informed in favor of profitability.

Environmental sustainability and government health expenditure in Africa: is there a nexus?

PurposeThis study aims to explore the impact of environmental sustainability on government health expenditure in Africa for the period 2000–2021.Design/methodology/approachThe study employs the generalized method of moments (GMM) technique and utilizes a sample of 43 African countries.FindingsThe study reveals that carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions and renewable energy consumption have a positive relationship with health expenditure. For the control factors, we demonstrate that economic growth, urbanization and industrialization have a significant negative influence on health expenditure, while the impact of education on health expenditure is positive.Practical implicationsThe study proposes several policy recommendations, including prioritizing investment in renewable energy sources and promoting the use of cleaner energy sources such as wind, solar and hydroelectric power. These measures would help improve environmental quality and reduce government health expenditure.Originality/valueThe study contributes to the limited research on the relationship between environmental quality and health expenditure in Africa. Moreover, it goes beyond previous studies that only considered CO2 emissions and explores the impact of adopting cleaner energy sources on health expenditure.

The role of green bonds in reducing CO2 emissions: a case of developing countries

PurposeThe global economy is growing very fast, and it is also facing environmental challenges. Due to increased economic activities, global warming is rising as a result of greenhouse gas emissions. Concepts like green finance and green investments are emerging to battle climate issues. The present study empirically examines the impact of green bonds on carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions in developing countries, as these countries are producing 63% of CO2 emissions around the globe.Design/methodology/approachTo check this impact, pooled ordinary least squares (OLS), fixed effect and generalized method of moments (GMM) techniques are applied using the annual data of 65 developing countries from 2008 through 2021.FindingsThe results indicate that the overall effect of green bonds on CO2 emissions is negative, as more issuance of green bonds reduces CO2 emissions, confirming results from the existing empirical literature. The study found that more foreign direct investment (FDI) and urbanization lead to more CO2 emissions, while increase in trade openness helps reduce CO2 emissions. It was found that promoting green bonds will help to promote environmentally friendly projects that will help to reduce CO2 emissions. Rapid urbanization has led to more energy demand for various industries like manufacturing, transportation and residential sectors, which leads to more CO2 emissions.Practical implicationsThe policymakers in these countries should make policies that help in reducing carbon emission by increasing green bonds and FDI in supporting projects that are environmentally friendly. Therefore, to mitigate such current and future issues, policymakers in developing countries need to give serious attention to this area to fulfill sustainable development goals.Originality/valueThis study presents a pioneering examination of green bonds and CO2 emissions in 65 lower- and middle-income countries (developing countries). We have tried to cover all developing countries that are causing more greenhouse gas emissions and need to shift to green finance strategies. It will be a contribution to the body of knowledge regarding the role of green bonds in reducing CO2 emissions. The present study will help in assessing the importance of green bonds in bringing low-carbon economies.

Trending Time-Varying Coefficient Spatial Panel Data Models

This article investigates the estimation and inference of spatial panel data models in which the regression coefficient vector is a trending function. We use time differences to eliminate the individual effects and employ various GMM estimations for regression coefficients with both linear and quadratic moments. Time trend estimator based on these GMM estimations is also proposed. Monte Carlo experiments show that the finite sample performance of the estimators is satisfactory. As an empirical illustration, we investigate the trending pattern of the spillover effect of air pollution among Chinese cities from 2015 to 2021.

Investigating the relationship of government revenue and expenditure on economic growth using a generalized method of moments: Does state-level panel ensure sustainable growth?

The current research project investigates the correlation between economic growth, government spending, and public revenue in seventeen Indian states spanning the years 1990 to 2020. An analysis of the relationship between key fiscal policy variables and economic growth was conducted utilising a panel data approach, the Generalised Method of Moments (GMM), and fully modified Ordinary Least Squares (FMOLS & DOLS) estimation. In our investigation, we assessed the impacts of non-tax revenue, development plan expenditure, tax revenue, and development non-plan expenditure on (i) the net state domestic product (NSDP) and (ii) the NSDP per capita. The findings indicate that the selected fiscal variables are significantly related. The results indicate that expeditious expansion of the fiscal sector is obligatory to stimulate economic growth in India and advance the actual development of the economies of these states.

The Impact of Digital Inclusive Finance on Economic Growth in Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region, China

With the advancement of digital technology and the in-depth exploration of inclusive finance, digital inclusive finance has emerged as a result. The development of digital inclusive finance is propelled by the reduction of costs and barriers in financial services through digital technology. Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region, due to its remote geographical location, faces spatial constraints that are overcome by digital inclusive finance. Therefore, this paper focuses on the study of the effects of digital inclusive finance on economic growth in Xinjiang. To analyze the impact of digital inclusive finance on economic growth in the Xinjiang region, this paper constructs a dynamic panel GMM (Generalized Method of Moments) model based on panel data from Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region for the years 2011-2019. Empirical analysis reveals that digital inclusive finance has a positive effect on economic growth in the Xinjiang region.

A longitudinal examination of anti-corruption disclosure in the banking sector of a least-developed economy: does board composition make a difference?

PurposeThis study focuses on anti-corruption disclosure (ACD) as a critical indicator of a bank’s commitment to combat corruption. It seeks to measure the level of ACD in banking companies. Emphasizing the pivotal role of board directors in ensuring corporate accountability and transparency, the study further explores the connection between board composition and ACD.Design/methodology/approachThis study adopts automated content analysis (using keyword search) to measure the level of ACD in the annual reports of listed banks in Bangladesh. Drawing upon agency theory and resource-dependence theory, the study proposes that the collective monitoring and resources facilitated by a well-structured board (size, gender diversity and independence) significantly influence a bank’s commitment to combat corruption. The paper employs linear regression to examine the hypotheses. The reliability of the findings is further validated through the application of the Generalized Method of Moments (GMM) and Quantile Regression.FindingsThe results indicate a steady rise in ACD over the sample period (2014–2022). The analysis establishes that larger board sizes and a greater presence of female directors are positively associated with ACD. Notably, the study identifies a critical mass of at least three female directors for a significant positive relationship between gender diversity on the board and ACD. However, no significant relationship is observed between board independence and ACD.Practical implicationsThe study sheds light on the current state of ACD within the banking companies of a least-developed country. The findings carry significant implications for regulators to gauge banks' dedication to anti-corruption efforts and make informed decisions on issuing guidance for enhanced ACD. These findings can also assist regulators in assessing the implications of board composition and formulating guidelines within the corporate governance code.Originality/valueThis study contributes to the literature on ACD in the context of a least-developed economy. Notably, the study fills a research gap by exploring ACD in the banking industry. A key aspect of this study is its exploration of the determinants of ACD, explicitly emphasizing how board composition is likely to influence ACD.

How do financial inclusion and bank stability explain agricultural productivity in Sub-Saharan Africa?

PurposeThis study aims to examine the impact of financial inclusion and bank stability on agricultural productivity in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA).Design/methodology/approachThe study used 38 countries in the SSA with data spanning between 2004 and 2021. The data were analyzed using the two-step system generalized method of moments (GMM) and the panel-corrected standard error (PCSE) model.FindingsThe study found a positive effect of financial inclusion and bank stability on agricultural productivity. The study also discovered that while the access component of financial inclusion has a negative influence on agricultural productivity, the usage dimension has a positive impact.Research limitations/implicationsThe study suggests to policymakers that an inclusive and stable financial system improves agricultural productivity. The findings recommend that policymakers should empower farmers to leverage financial inclusion.Originality/valueThis study provides insightful discussion on the impact of financial inclusion and its various dimensions and bank stability on agricultural productivity in SSA.

Structural Change in the 21st Century: The Role of the Modern Services Sector in the Economic Development Strategy

ABSTRACT Traditional literature on Economic Growth highlights the role of the manufacturing sector in fostering economic growth. This sector, characterized by increasing returns, plays a fundamental role in both static and dynamic scale gains within the economy. Recently, an increasing number of studies have suggested that the increased share of the modern services sector also significantly contributes to innovation, productivity, and increased output. The aim of this paper is to reevaluate growth theories in light of the emerging prominence of the services sector and to outline key components of a research agenda that encompasses this sector as a crucial area of investigation. To substantiate this argument, we apply a GMM (Generalized Method of Moments) model to a dataset spanning from 1990 to 2018, encompassing fifty-one (51) countries, in order to evaluate the impact of modern services on manufacturing performance. An interaction variable is employed to test whether a symbiotic relationship between industry and services is the driving force behind economic growth. The results demonstrate the relevance of the services sector. Finally, we suggest possible research lines to be developed.