Generalized Method Of Moments Research Articles

Commodity price volatility, institutions and economic growth: An empirical investigation

AbstractThis article investigates the role of institutional quality in transmitting effects of commodity price volatility to economic growth. To do so, we collect data on 107 primary commodity exporting countries in both developing and developed ones over the period 1976–2015. Our empirical approach is based on Solow growth model framework (Solow, R. M. (1956). The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 70(1), 65) and consists of estimating a dynamic panel model using the two‐step system GMM estimator. Our results show evidence that commodity price booms are associated with good economic performances that are unfortunately wiped out by the negative effects of price volatility in developing commodity‐dependent countries (CDCs). The main channel through which this volatility affects economic growth turns out to be through factor productivity. Finally, we have formally established that the negative effect of price volatility in CDCs is mainly due to the poor quality of institutions in these countries. These results suggest that it is important for commodity‐exporting economies, especially developing CDCs, to work on building strong economic and political institutions to guard against the risk of commodity price volatility.

From Kyoto to Paris and beyond: A deep dive into the green shift

This study investigates the impact of the Kyoto Protocol and its associated regime, the Paris Agreement, on environmental outcomes and the green transition. We employ a difference-in-differences (DD) specification for country-level panel data from 1995 to 2018. The DD estimates suggest that the Kyoto Protocol of 2005 significantly reduced CO2 emissions and natural resources rents by around 20 percent and decreased the quantity of non-renewable electricity generated by about 36 percent, relative to the pre-Kyoto period. The protocol also led to increases in renewable energy consumption and generation of 18 percent and 60 percent, respectively. Robustness checks using system GMM estimates confirm that the effects of the Kyoto Protocol are likely not biased because of dynamic endogeneity from simultaneity problems or confounding trends. For the Paris Agreement, given documented issues in interpreting the average treatment effects using standard two-way fixed effects (TWFE), we leverage a DD specification with multiple treatment timings. We find no statistically significant effect of the Paris Agreement 2016 on the green transition except that it contributes to reducing CO2 emissions. The absence of a significant impact from the ad hoc Paris Agreement on most outcomes points to the need for greater effort in implementing environmental treaties.

Government infrastructure investment stimulation through booming natural resources: Evidence from a lower-middle-income country.

The dynamics of central government funding to regions depend on local investments. In regional autonomy, local governments are encouraged to be more self-reliant from the central government. For regions with high natural resource yields, they will not encounter difficulties in meeting their fiscal needs. Community welfare can be realized through fulfilling basic needs, one of which is infrastructure development. High-quality infrastructure will be able to contribute to further progress in trade, thus enhancing production efficiency. The objective of this research is to analyze the extent of the influence of central government transfer funds, especially the Natural Resource Revenue Sharing Funds (DBH SDA), on local government investments in infrastructure across 508 districts/cities in Indonesia. The method used is dynamic panel regression using the Generalized Method of Moment (GMM) Arellano-Bond approach. This study finds that the role of DBH SDA is still low in infrastructure spending. The role of the central government remains significant in determining infrastructure spending at the district/city level in Indonesia. This indicates that local governments rely more on other sectors in infrastructure investment. By enhancing the role of DBH SDA through technological advancements, it is hoped that the market value of natural resources can be higher through resource downstreaming. This strategy will have broader impacts, as labor needs can be absorbed not only in raw material production activities but also in the processing technology sector. Furthermore, the utilization of natural resources with modern technology can increase extraction efficiency, support sustainable development, and minimize environmental impacts.

Economic globalisation and Africa's quest for greener and more inclusive growth: The missing link

This study examines the contingency and threshold effects of economic freedom in the economic globalisation (EG) and inclusive green growth (IGG) relationship. To this end, we apply the fixed-effects generalized method of moments with Driscoll-Kraay standard errors estimator to macro data for the period 2008–2020 for 22 selected African countries. The following findings are established. First, we find that economic freedom reduces the negative effect of EG on IGG. Second, when we disaggregate EG into financial and trade globalisation, we show that the moderating effect of economic freedom on the former is rather striking. Third, our threshold analysis suggests that by improving Africa's unfree economic architecture to 60% (moderately free), the IGG-deteriorating marginal effects of EG are significantly mitigated (but not nullified). We conclude that unless an effort is made to improve economic freedom in Africa, the envisaged IGG gains of economic globalisation might prove elusive.

Corporate governance, social responsibility and sustainability commitments by banks: Impacts on credit risk and performance

AbstractWith the increasing pressures to commit to social and environmental issues, banks align with stakeholders' expectations via corporate social responsibility (CSR), and sustainable development goals (SDGs) initiatives. Understanding how these initiatives affect credit risk and performance of banks is crucial for the economy. Relying on the dynamic generalized method of moments and data on Thai listed commercial banks from 2015 to 2020, we find commitments to good governance, CSR and SDGs largely have an opposite effect on bank credit risk and performance. Consistent with stewardship or resource dependency hypothesis, together with stakeholder and good management hypothesis, banks with more female directors, higher levels of anti‐corruption and SDGs commitments are associated with a reduction in credit risk. However, consistent with queen bee hypothesis and agency and trade‐off hypothesis, banks with larger board size, more female directors and higher levels of CSR and SDGs commitments underperform. This apparent contradiction between negative impacts on bank performance and positive impacts on credit risk can be reconciled by understanding the trade‐offs involved, the long‐term focus of sustainability initiatives, leading to a decline in short‐term performance but enhancing their resilience to adverse events, ultimately reducing credit risk. Our findings enable stakeholders to make informed decisions, improve sustainable business practices, and contribute to the long‐term success of banks and the broader society.

Drivers of Inclusive Development: An Empirical Investigation

AbstractConcerns about socially uneven progress and inequality have regained public attention (including that of many populist politicians). The purpose of this paper is to identify the economic policies as well as economic factors that facilitate inclusive development. This paper is a first attempt to empirically estimate the drivers of inclusive development. For our empirical assessments, we apply the Multidimensional Inclusiveness Index suggested by Dörffel and Schuhmann (2022) in a panel OLS regression setup with fixed effects (FE) and GMM estimations for up to 178 countries and a time frame ranging from 1980 to 2018. In FE regressions, we find robust associations with inflation as well as financial sector development in the short and long-run, trade/GDP in the long-run. The GMM results point only to inflation and trade as significant drivers in the long-run and investment in the short run. These results suggest that accessible and well-functioning financial markets paired with low rates of inflation and high trade openness take on a more critical role than government spending. Our results suggest that rudiments of the Washington consensus could still guide the promotion of inclusive development.

Evaluating strategies to persist for digital platform firms in a post-digitalization era: an empirical evidence from Indian platform firms

PurposeThe dynamic and evolving nature of the market calls for attention to digital platform firms' survival strategies, building agility for persistence in a continuously changing business environment. In India, the government’s adoption of the Digital Policy is one such change in the business environment for the firms that impact almost all sectors. Such policies cause a disruption wherein digital platform firms must be agile and create a strategic response that will endure any changes. The present study attempts to gain insight into the competitive strategies adopted by the digital platform firms of the consumer durables industry in India, which are implemented to facilitate their growth.Design/methodology/approachThe entire study is conducted in two phases. Phase one includes identifying strategies sampled digital platform firms adopted in response to the digitalization policy, and the second phase evaluates the significance of the adopted plans to persist.FindingsWhile clubbing the 42 strategic responses to a few aggregate dimensions, the study found four types of responses adopted by the digital platform firms in the consumer durable industry to persist in the market. Using a two-step system, the Generalized Method of Moments (GMM) approach, the study found that all four dimensions are statistically significant, positively impacting these firms' profitability.Practical implicationsThe study contributes to the knowledge base of strategic responses to persist for the incumbent platform firms in a dynamic business environment.Originality/valueThe study answers the pertinent research question of how such strategic decisions may be informed in favor of profitability.

Environmental sustainability and government health expenditure in Africa: is there a nexus?

PurposeThis study aims to explore the impact of environmental sustainability on government health expenditure in Africa for the period 2000–2021.Design/methodology/approachThe study employs the generalized method of moments (GMM) technique and utilizes a sample of 43 African countries.FindingsThe study reveals that carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions and renewable energy consumption have a positive relationship with health expenditure. For the control factors, we demonstrate that economic growth, urbanization and industrialization have a significant negative influence on health expenditure, while the impact of education on health expenditure is positive.Practical implicationsThe study proposes several policy recommendations, including prioritizing investment in renewable energy sources and promoting the use of cleaner energy sources such as wind, solar and hydroelectric power. These measures would help improve environmental quality and reduce government health expenditure.Originality/valueThe study contributes to the limited research on the relationship between environmental quality and health expenditure in Africa. Moreover, it goes beyond previous studies that only considered CO2 emissions and explores the impact of adopting cleaner energy sources on health expenditure.

The role of green bonds in reducing CO2 emissions: a case of developing countries

PurposeThe global economy is growing very fast, and it is also facing environmental challenges. Due to increased economic activities, global warming is rising as a result of greenhouse gas emissions. Concepts like green finance and green investments are emerging to battle climate issues. The present study empirically examines the impact of green bonds on carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions in developing countries, as these countries are producing 63% of CO2 emissions around the globe.Design/methodology/approachTo check this impact, pooled ordinary least squares (OLS), fixed effect and generalized method of moments (GMM) techniques are applied using the annual data of 65 developing countries from 2008 through 2021.FindingsThe results indicate that the overall effect of green bonds on CO2 emissions is negative, as more issuance of green bonds reduces CO2 emissions, confirming results from the existing empirical literature. The study found that more foreign direct investment (FDI) and urbanization lead to more CO2 emissions, while increase in trade openness helps reduce CO2 emissions. It was found that promoting green bonds will help to promote environmentally friendly projects that will help to reduce CO2 emissions. Rapid urbanization has led to more energy demand for various industries like manufacturing, transportation and residential sectors, which leads to more CO2 emissions.Practical implicationsThe policymakers in these countries should make policies that help in reducing carbon emission by increasing green bonds and FDI in supporting projects that are environmentally friendly. Therefore, to mitigate such current and future issues, policymakers in developing countries need to give serious attention to this area to fulfill sustainable development goals.Originality/valueThis study presents a pioneering examination of green bonds and CO2 emissions in 65 lower- and middle-income countries (developing countries). We have tried to cover all developing countries that are causing more greenhouse gas emissions and need to shift to green finance strategies. It will be a contribution to the body of knowledge regarding the role of green bonds in reducing CO2 emissions. The present study will help in assessing the importance of green bonds in bringing low-carbon economies.

Trending Time-Varying Coefficient Spatial Panel Data Models

This article investigates the estimation and inference of spatial panel data models in which the regression coefficient vector is a trending function. We use time differences to eliminate the individual effects and employ various GMM estimations for regression coefficients with both linear and quadratic moments. Time trend estimator based on these GMM estimations is also proposed. Monte Carlo experiments show that the finite sample performance of the estimators is satisfactory. As an empirical illustration, we investigate the trending pattern of the spillover effect of air pollution among Chinese cities from 2015 to 2021.

Investigating the relationship of government revenue and expenditure on economic growth using a generalized method of moments: Does state-level panel ensure sustainable growth?

The current research project investigates the correlation between economic growth, government spending, and public revenue in seventeen Indian states spanning the years 1990 to 2020. An analysis of the relationship between key fiscal policy variables and economic growth was conducted utilising a panel data approach, the Generalised Method of Moments (GMM), and fully modified Ordinary Least Squares (FMOLS & DOLS) estimation. In our investigation, we assessed the impacts of non-tax revenue, development plan expenditure, tax revenue, and development non-plan expenditure on (i) the net state domestic product (NSDP) and (ii) the NSDP per capita. The findings indicate that the selected fiscal variables are significantly related. The results indicate that expeditious expansion of the fiscal sector is obligatory to stimulate economic growth in India and advance the actual development of the economies of these states.

The Impact of Digital Inclusive Finance on Economic Growth in Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region, China

With the advancement of digital technology and the in-depth exploration of inclusive finance, digital inclusive finance has emerged as a result. The development of digital inclusive finance is propelled by the reduction of costs and barriers in financial services through digital technology. Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region, due to its remote geographical location, faces spatial constraints that are overcome by digital inclusive finance. Therefore, this paper focuses on the study of the effects of digital inclusive finance on economic growth in Xinjiang. To analyze the impact of digital inclusive finance on economic growth in the Xinjiang region, this paper constructs a dynamic panel GMM (Generalized Method of Moments) model based on panel data from Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region for the years 2011-2019. Empirical analysis reveals that digital inclusive finance has a positive effect on economic growth in the Xinjiang region.

A longitudinal examination of anti-corruption disclosure in the banking sector of a least-developed economy: does board composition make a difference?

PurposeThis study focuses on anti-corruption disclosure (ACD) as a critical indicator of a bank’s commitment to combat corruption. It seeks to measure the level of ACD in banking companies. Emphasizing the pivotal role of board directors in ensuring corporate accountability and transparency, the study further explores the connection between board composition and ACD.Design/methodology/approachThis study adopts automated content analysis (using keyword search) to measure the level of ACD in the annual reports of listed banks in Bangladesh. Drawing upon agency theory and resource-dependence theory, the study proposes that the collective monitoring and resources facilitated by a well-structured board (size, gender diversity and independence) significantly influence a bank’s commitment to combat corruption. The paper employs linear regression to examine the hypotheses. The reliability of the findings is further validated through the application of the Generalized Method of Moments (GMM) and Quantile Regression.FindingsThe results indicate a steady rise in ACD over the sample period (2014–2022). The analysis establishes that larger board sizes and a greater presence of female directors are positively associated with ACD. Notably, the study identifies a critical mass of at least three female directors for a significant positive relationship between gender diversity on the board and ACD. However, no significant relationship is observed between board independence and ACD.Practical implicationsThe study sheds light on the current state of ACD within the banking companies of a least-developed country. The findings carry significant implications for regulators to gauge banks' dedication to anti-corruption efforts and make informed decisions on issuing guidance for enhanced ACD. These findings can also assist regulators in assessing the implications of board composition and formulating guidelines within the corporate governance code.Originality/valueThis study contributes to the literature on ACD in the context of a least-developed economy. Notably, the study fills a research gap by exploring ACD in the banking industry. A key aspect of this study is its exploration of the determinants of ACD, explicitly emphasizing how board composition is likely to influence ACD.

How do financial inclusion and bank stability explain agricultural productivity in Sub-Saharan Africa?

PurposeThis study aims to examine the impact of financial inclusion and bank stability on agricultural productivity in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA).Design/methodology/approachThe study used 38 countries in the SSA with data spanning between 2004 and 2021. The data were analyzed using the two-step system generalized method of moments (GMM) and the panel-corrected standard error (PCSE) model.FindingsThe study found a positive effect of financial inclusion and bank stability on agricultural productivity. The study also discovered that while the access component of financial inclusion has a negative influence on agricultural productivity, the usage dimension has a positive impact.Research limitations/implicationsThe study suggests to policymakers that an inclusive and stable financial system improves agricultural productivity. The findings recommend that policymakers should empower farmers to leverage financial inclusion.Originality/valueThis study provides insightful discussion on the impact of financial inclusion and its various dimensions and bank stability on agricultural productivity in SSA.

Structural Change in the 21st Century: The Role of the Modern Services Sector in the Economic Development Strategy

ABSTRACT Traditional literature on Economic Growth highlights the role of the manufacturing sector in fostering economic growth. This sector, characterized by increasing returns, plays a fundamental role in both static and dynamic scale gains within the economy. Recently, an increasing number of studies have suggested that the increased share of the modern services sector also significantly contributes to innovation, productivity, and increased output. The aim of this paper is to reevaluate growth theories in light of the emerging prominence of the services sector and to outline key components of a research agenda that encompasses this sector as a crucial area of investigation. To substantiate this argument, we apply a GMM (Generalized Method of Moments) model to a dataset spanning from 1990 to 2018, encompassing fifty-one (51) countries, in order to evaluate the impact of modern services on manufacturing performance. An interaction variable is employed to test whether a symbiotic relationship between industry and services is the driving force behind economic growth. The results demonstrate the relevance of the services sector. Finally, we suggest possible research lines to be developed.

How does economic policy uncertainty impact CO2 emissions? Investigating investment's role across 22 economies (1997–2021)

Economic policy uncertainty (EPU) has significant implications for both economic growth and CO2 emissions through investment and consumption. Existing research has produced mixed findings on the impact of EPU on CO2 emissions. Nevertheless, there is a need for further empirical investigation into the role of investment in the relationship between EPU and CO2 emissions in various economies. This article contributes to the literature by examining the investment channel in the EPU-CO2 emissions nexus in 22 economies using annual panel data from 1997 to 2021. The analysis was conducted using eight specifications to classify the empirical estimates of the direct and indirect impacts of EPU on CO2 emissions through the investment channel. The CD test, CADF test, and CIPS test were used to test for cross-sectional dependence, unit root, and cointegration, respectively. The GMM estimation technique was used to test for the long-run relationship. The empirical results suggest that both direct and indirect EPU stimuli on CO2 emissions through the investment channel are positive, and the EKC hypothesis holds. Furthermore, findings show that fossil-fuel energy usage leads to an increase in CO2 emissions. Given the significant impact of economic policy uncertainty on CO2 emissions, policymakers should consider the environmental implications of their policy decisions. Second, reducing fossil fuel energy usage in the production process should be a priority to mitigate the impact of EPU on CO2 emissions.

Global Uncertainty: The Influence of Monetary Policies Order and Inflation Volatility on Bank Profitability African Bank and Middle East Bank

The objective of this paper is to examine the factors that influence the resilience and adaptability of banks to economic disruption. The aim is to encourage a collaborative and cooperative approach to these challenges. This study analyses the impact of monetary policies, inflation trends, and bank-specific determinants on bank profitability in the African and Middle Eastern regions. A quantitative research approach was used to assess macro and micro factors affecting bank profitability, using secondary data. The macro variables were obtained from the International Monetary Fund (IMF), and the micro variables were extracted from the banks' annual accounts. The research findings indicate that monetary policy and inflation have significant impacts on banks' profitability. Additionally, the System Generalized Method of Moments (GMM) model revealed that the annual interest rate (IR), inflation (INF), capital adequacy ratio (CAR), and previous financial performance (Lagged ROA/ROE) have positive and significant effects on both ROA and ROE. In addition, the loan-to-deposit ratio (LDR) had a significant positive effect on ROE, while the non-performing loan ratio (NPLr) had a significant negative effect. The validity and suitability of the GMM regression model used in this study were confirmed by the AR(2) and Sargan Test results. These findings provide valuable insights for decision-makers in the banking sector to respond to changes in monetary policy and manage risks associated with inflation fluctuations. The study emphasizes the importance of capital management and credit risk management in sustaining bank profitability amidst economic uncertainty.

Discovering the relationship between Agri funding and Agri contribution to GDP

One of the main goals for Bangladesh is to achieve economic growth by increasing agricultural productivity. I will be conducting research to examine how agricultural financing and contributions impact Bangladesh. The researchers collected yearly time series data from the Bangladesh Bank (BB), Ministry of Finance (MoF), and Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics (BBS) for the period of 2012 to 2022. This article employed the GMM estimation technique using SPSS to examine the short- and long-term relationships between agricultural financing and agricultural contribution, along with other control variables. The findings of the study showed that there are connections between agricultural funding and agricultural contribution in both the short-term and long-term. Additionally, agricultural productivity is affected by various dynamic factors including GDP, inflation, interest rates, and government agricultural spending. The dependent variable in this study was GDP, while the independent variable was agricultural production. Most agricultural processing sectors, along with some agricultural producing sectors, have a greater potential for making money. This research indicates that it would be beneficial to increase agricultural financing in order to support the economic development of Bangladesh.

Digital financial inclusion, international remittances, and poverty reduction

Ensuring access to and usage of formal financial services through digital devices can be referred to as “digital financial inclusion” (DFI). In recent years, there has been a growing trend in the use of financial services, including money transfers through mobile phones. This study applies mobile phone subscriptions as a proxy to measure the degree of DFI and explores the individual effects of DFI and remittances and their interaction effects on poverty conditions in developing countries. Using panel data from 2000 to 2020 for 123 countries and employing the dynamic generalized method of moments estimation, the results reveal that DFI and remittance inflows help ameliorate poverty in developing countries. Furthermore, we find that the coefficient of the interaction term between DFI and remittances is statistically significant and positive, suggesting that the impact of DFI on poverty alleviation could weaken as remittance inflows increase in the remittance-receiving country and vice versa.

Foreign direct investment, information and communication technology, and economic growth: The case of North African Countries

This paper examines the role of information and communication technology (ICT) in modulating the effects of foreign direct investment (FDI) on economic growth in North Africa (Morocco, Algeria, Tunisia, and Egypt) over the period 1995 to 2021. Using advanced quantitative methods, including quantile regression, and comparing with Two-Stage Least Squares (2SLS) regression and Generalized Method of Moments (GMM), the study assesses the impact of FDI and ICT on growth, controlling for country fixed effects. The results indicate that FDI has a significant positive impact on growth, particularly when interacting with transmission channels, notably the telephone (mobile and fixed). However, the interaction with the internet varies according to quantile levels, showing positive effects at low quantiles and negative effects at high quantiles. The study highlights the importance of investment policies, digital inclusion, and research to optimize the benefits of FDI in the region.