Opposing predictions regarding stockmarket forecasting were tested in four correlational studies. Market indices were correlated with two types of survey data: The general public's views of their personal finances, and investors' plans. Stockmarket prices were examined before, during, and after the surveys for up to a seven-year span. The general public's attitudes about whether their financial situation is or would get better, when looked at from present and future perspectives, were predictive of stockmarket activity. In contrast, investors' intent to invest in stocks (and bonds) were not. The results were interpreted as favoring neither those who are pessimists nor optimists about stockmarket forecasting, but as partially supporting both.
Read full abstract