Clinical Practice Research Datalink Research Articles

A novel dynamic risk score to predict venous thromboembolism (VTE) recurrences after 3 months of anticoagulation in patients with incident VTE and without active cancer

Abstract Background Predicting the risk of recurrent venous thromboembolism (rVTE) during and following anticoagulation is complex. Current models lack the ability to adapt to changing patient conditions over time and fail to account for the direct impact of anticoagulation in real-world clinical settings. Purpose To develop a dynamic risk prediction model for rVTE to help clinicians decide on the duration of anticoagulant therapy in conjunction with a model for bleeding (also submitted to the conference). Methods UK Clinical Practice Research Datalink data (2001-2020) was used to generate a retrospective cohort with first VTE who had received 3 months of anticoagulation. Patient episodes of rVTE were evaluated. Covariates were collected at baseline and subsequently as time-varying data to capture changes post-VTE. Hazards with 95% confidence intervals (CI) were estimated and covariates included in a Fine & Gray model used as predictors of rVTE. An additive (logarithmic) scoring scheme was developed from subdistribution hazard ratios, discrimination (expressed by the C-statistic) estimated from 10-fold cross-validation. Results 51,465 patients with a first VTE were included; 4041 rVTE were identified in 200,698 person-years of observation. Incidence rates for rVTE were 2.01 per 100 person-years. Nineteen independent predictors of rVTE (recorded before or after the VTE diagnosis) were included in the model, 13 associated with increased risk and 6 with decreased risk, Table 1. Patients recognised as lower-risk, medium and higher-risk (10.5%, 37% and 52.5% of the population, respectively, at 90 days after first VTE, assuming no anticoagulation treatment) had an annualised rVTE incidence rate of 2.20, 3.84, and 7.44 per 100 person-years. The C-statistic for rVTE was 0.65 (95%CI, 0.64-0.66). The points scored can be added or subtracted to predict risk (Table 2). Conclusions Our dynamic risk score effectively identifies patients at risk of rVTE three months post their initial VTE diagnosis. It allows for continuous monitoring of risk, and modelling of treatment impact, providing clinicians with a pragmatic tool to help determine treatment duration, and adapt their strategies in response to evolving patient conditions.Table 1:Predictors for VTE recurrenceTable 2:VTE recurrence risk score

Comorbidity neural network model for personalised recommendations in cardiometabolic risk factor management: towards early precision medicine in routine clinical practice

Abstract Background and Aims Hypertension and hypercholesterolaemia often develop in tandem to confer a risk of cardiovascular disease that may be more than additive. The present study explored early comorbid therapeutic intervention, i.e., beyond individual disease silos, while minimising data bias to provide clinical decision support tools that are portable across clinics. Methods A neural network was created to reproduce UK national clinical guidelines with an accuracy higher than 95%. Relying on real-world evidence from the UK primary care Clinical Practice Research Datalink electronic health record resource, a transfer learning methodology was then applied to achieve recommended risk factor goal attainment after two years. Shapley values derived from game theory were used to define similar digital twin cohorts, and to evaluate individualised recommendations that deviated from national clinical guidelines by rejecting a no-benefit hypothesis retrospectively in a classical proportion test. The methodology was ported to an independent hold-out dataset with anonymized records from six primary care clinics in the South of England. Results The adult patient population (n=469,496, mean+SD age 61+11yr; M 56% vs F 44%; primary 84% vs secondary prevention 16%) included 101,255 diagnosed for hypertension and 112,180 for cholesterol management. While a majority of the 52,504 therapeutic decisions in a test set agree with single morbidity guidelines, for 4639 deviations from the guidance, a significant minority was identified for whom alternative therapy was recommended. Rejecting a no-clinical benefit hypothesis at the 95% confidence level in a retrospective analysis, 1367 decisions showed statistically significant better outcomes over guidelines, for example by escalating anti-hypertensive therapies for patients receiving statin therapy (1085) or by complementing anti-hypertensive therapy with a statin (158). Similar findings were obtained when tested in a hold-out dataset with 13,725 decisions for 6531 patients. Conclusions The results support the contention that machine learning can identify patient subgroups for whom comorbid intervention deviating from clinical guidelines may be appropriate. A novel aspect of the study is the demonstration of clinically portable and actionable application of machine learning in the context of comorbid cardiometabolic diseases. The results represent practical steps towards personalised precision medicine for cardiovascular comorbidity in routine clinical practice.

A novel dynamic risk score to predict Clinically Significant Bleeding (CSB) after 3 months of anticoagulation in patients with incident Venous ThromboEmbolism (VTE) and without active cancer

Abstract Background Predicting the risk of clinically significant bleeding (CSB), bleeding requiring hospitalisation or fatal bleeding, during and following anticoagulation is complex. Current models lack the ability to adapt to changing patient conditions over time and fail to account for the direct impact of anticoagulation in real-world clinical settings. Purpose To develop a dynamic risk prediction model for CSB to help clinicians decide on the duration of anticoagulant therapy in conjunction with a model for recurrences of VTE (also submitted to the conference). Methods UK Clinical Practice Research Datalink data (2001-2020) was used to generate a retrospective cohort with first VTE who had received 3 months of anticoagulation. Patient episodes of CSB and recurrent VTE were evaluated. Covariates were collected at baseline and subsequently as time-varying data to capture changes post-VTE. Hazards with 95% confidence intervals (CI) were estimated and covariates included in a Fine & Gray model used as predictors of CSB. An additive (logarithmic) scoring scheme was developed from subdistribution hazard ratios, discrimination (expressed by the C-statistic) estimated from 10-fold cross-validation. Results 51,621 patients with a first VTE were included; 3307 CSB were identified in 206,292 person-years of observation. Incidence rates for CSB were 1.60 per 100 person-years. 18 independent predictors of CSB (recorded before or after the VTE diagnosis) were included in the model, Table 1. Patients recognised as lower-risk, medium and higher-risk (67.5 %, 15.9 % and 16.7 % of the population, respectively, at 90 days after first VTE, assuming no anticoagulation treatment) had an annualised incidence rate of 0.84, 2.94, and 9.45 per 100 person-years. The C-statistic for CSB was 0.78 (95%CI, 0.77-0.79). The points scored can be added to predict risk (Table 2). Conclusions Our dynamic score effectively identifies patients at risk of CSB three months post their initial VTE diagnosis. It allows for continuous monitoring of risk, and modelling of treatment impact, providing clinicians with a pragmatic tool to help determine treatment duration, and adapt their strategies in response to evolving patient conditions.Table 1:Predictors for CSBTable 2:CSB risk score

A real-world data analysis investigating the cardioprotective effects of glucagon-like peptide-1 receptor agonists among people with type 2 diabetes in England

Abstract Background Cardiovascular disease (CVD) is a common and major complication of type 2 diabetes (T2D). Anti-diabetic therapy aims to lower blood glucose, with primary clinical trial endpoints for new antidiabetic entrants focused on HbA1c. Research suggests some glucose-lowering drugs, including glucagon-like peptide-1 receptor agonists (GLP-1 RAs), can have a cardioprotective effect in people with T2D.1,2 Purpose To compare the real-world risk of major adverse cardiovascular event (MACE) in people with T2D treated with GLP-1 RAs compared to dipeptidyl peptidase-4 (DPP-4) inhibitors or basal insulin. Methods We conducted a retrospective cohort study using linked primary care data from the Clinical Practice Research Datalink Aurum, secondary care Hospital Episode Statistics and Office for National Statistics death registrations. We included patients aged ≥18 years with T2D at high-risk or very-high-risk of CVD (as defined by the European Society of Cardiology) who had ≥2 prescriptions of either GLP-1 RA (dulaglutide, liraglutide, and semaglutide), DPP-4 inhibitor (as part of line 4 therapy) or basal insulin from 01/01/2014-31/12/2018. We excluded those pregnant at therapy initiation or with type 1 diabetes. Follow-up started at second prescription of relevant therapy and ended at the earliest of two years later, pregnancy, death, end of primary care record, or 31/12/2019. We used data from patients’ medical histories to define baseline characteristics. We calculated the incidence of MACE per 100,000 person-years (PY), defined as non-fatal myocardial infarction, non-fatal stroke, and cardiovascular death. We used Cox proportional hazards regression, using LASSO to select confounding clinical variables including BMI, prior MACE and intercurrent antidiabetic treatments, to estimate risk difference of MACE among those treated with 1) GLP1-RA and DPP-4 inhibitor and 2) GLP1-RA and basal insulin. Results We included 63,237 patients, among whom the patients treated with GLP1-RA were younger and a higher proportion were obese or severely obese than those treated with DPP-4 inhibitor or basal insulin (Table 1). The incidence of MACE was highest in those treated with DPP-4 inhibitor (high-risk 1,503.0/100,000 PY; very-high-risk 6,000.7/100,000 PY) followed by basal insulin (high-risk 1,396.9/100,000 PY; very-high-risk 5,707.1/100,000 PY), and lowest in those treated with GLP1-RA (high-risk 377.1/100,000 PY; very-high-risk 1,946.1/100,000 PY). After adjustment, the risk of MACE among patients treated with GLP1-RA was still significantly lower than those treated with either DPP-4 inhibitor (high-risk aHR: 0.42, 95% CI 0.21-0.86 and very-high-risk aHR: 0.65, 95% CI 0.58-0.73) or those treated with basal insulin (high-risk aHR: 0.36, 95% CI 0.18-0.72 and very-high-risk aHR: 0.72, 95% CI 0.64-0.81). Conclusion(s) Our study supports clinical trial and other observational research studies which find a cardioprotective effect of GLP-1 RA use in people with T2D.

Clinical indications associated with new opioid use for pain management in the United Kingdom: using national primary care data.

Prescription opioids for noncancer pain in the United Kingdom have increased over the past 2 decades, alongside associated harms. Policies addressing opioid prescribing must be tailored to individual patient needs with specific disease systems. The aim of this study was to evaluate clinical conditions associated with new opioid initiation in noncancer pain using nationally representative UK data. Primary care electronic health records from January 1, 2006, to September 31, 2021, were used from the Clinical Research Practice Datalink to identify incident opioid prescriptions. Patient histories were reviewed using code lists for opioid-related conditions with a 5-year look-back for chronic conditions and a 1-year look-back for surgical indications before opioid initiation. In total, 3,030,077 new opioid use episodes in 2,027,402 patients were identified, with 61% being women, 77% aged 45 years and older, and 48% from the highest deprivation quintile. Ten systems associated with opioid initiation were identified, which were not mutually exclusive, as patients could have opioids prescribed for multiple indications. The most common were musculoskeletal (80.8%), respiratory (57.6%), infections (30.4%), trauma/injury (20.4%), neurology (19.9%), and postsurgical indications (5.5%). Osteoarthritis (60.7%) and low back pain (41.0%) were the most frequent musculoskeletal conditions. Orthopedic surgeries accounted for 41.2% of all postsurgical indications. This is the first study in the United Kingdom evaluating large-scale national data to assess indications associated with opioid initiation. Nearly 3 quarters of new opioid prescriptions for noncancer pain were in patients with musculoskeletal conditions, often for conditions with limited evidence for opioid efficacy. These findings could inform targeted interventions and future policies to support nonpharmacological interventions in the most common conditions where opioid harms outweigh benefits.

Temporal trends and practice variation of paediatric diagnostic tests in primary care: retrospective analysis of 14 million tests

ObjectiveThe primary objective was to investigate temporal trends and between-practice variability of paediatric test use in primary care.Methods and analysisThis was a descriptive study of population-based data from Clinical Practice...

Bayesian blockwise inference for joint models of longitudinal and multistate data with application to longitudinal multimorbidity analysis.

Multistate models provide a useful framework for modelling complex event history data in clinical settings and have recently been extended to the joint modelling framework to appropriately handle endogenous longitudinal covariates, such as repeatedly measured biomarkers, which are informative about health status and disease progression. However, the practical application of such joint models faces considerable computational challenges. Motivated by a longitudinal multimorbidity analysis of large-scale UK health records, we introduce novel Bayesian inference approaches for these models that are capable of handling complex multistate processes and large datasets with straightforward implementation. These approaches decompose the original estimation task into smaller inference blocks, leveraging parallel computing and facilitating flexible model specification and comparison. Using extensive simulation studies, we show that the proposed approaches achieve satisfactory estimation accuracy, with notable gains in computational efficiency compared to the standard Bayesian estimation strategy. We illustrate our approaches by analysing the coevolution of routinely measured systolic blood pressure and the progression of three important chronic conditions, using a large dataset from the Clinical Practice Research Datalink Aurum database. Our analysis reveals distinct and previously lesser-known association structures between systolic blood pressure and different disease transitions.

Trajectories and management of vascular risk following the diagnosis of multiple sclerosis: A population-based matched cohort study between 1987 and 2018 in England

Background: People with multiple sclerosis (PwMS) have an increased cardiovascular and cerebrovascular disease burden, but this could be mitigated by vascular risk factor management. Objectives: We compared the trajectories of vascular risk factors, vascular comorbidities and clinical management in PwMS against the general population post-MS diagnosis while controlling for frailty. Methods: Retrospective longitudinal analysis using English data from the Clinical Practice Research Datalink between 1987 and 2018 comprising PwMS matched with up to six controls without MS by age, sex and general practice. Results: We compared 12,251 PwMS with 72,572 matched controls; 3.8% of PwMS had mild–moderate frailty, 1.2% more than matched controls. Compared to controls, PwMS had an elevated incidence of Type 2 diabetes (HR 1.18, 95% CI (1.04, 1.34)), and starting antihypertensive medications (HR 1.40, 95% CI (1.33, 1.47)). Among those with hypertension at baseline, blood pressure trajectories did not differ between PwMS and controls. PwMS had increased rates of meeting targets for hypertension management (HR 1.25, 95% CI (1.12, 1.41)). Conclusion: The observation that PwMS with hypertension are more likely to meet treatment targets than matched controls is encouraging, but the elevated rates of vascular comorbidities suggest that tighter vascular management may be needed in this population.

Prioritising primary care patients with unexpected weight loss for cancer investigation: diagnostic accuracy study (update)

ObjectiveTo quantify the predictive value of unexpected weight loss for cancer according to patient’s age, sex, smoking status, and concurrent clinical features (symptoms, signs, and abnormal blood test results).DesignDiagnostic accuracy...

Association between socioeconomic deprivation, ethnicity and health outcomes in preschool children with recurrent wheeze in England: a retrospective cohort study

BackgroundPreschool-aged children have among the highest burden of acute wheeze. We investigated differences in healthcare use, treatment and outcomes for recurrent wheeze/asthma in preschoolers from different ethno-socioeconomic backgrounds.MethodsRetrospective cohort study...

Use of cholesterol-lowering medications in relation to risk of primary liver cancer in the Clinical Practice Research Datalink.

Although the relation between statin use and liver cancer risk has been extensively examined, few studies have examined other cholesterol-lowering medications in relation to liver cancer risk. The authors examined five classes of nonstatin medications and liver cancer risk. A nested case-control including 3719 cases and 14,876 matched controls was conducted within the Clinical Practice Research Datalink. Additional matches on type 2 diabetes and chronic liver disease were also implemented. The medications examined included cholesterol absorption inhibitors, bile acid sequestrants, fibrates, niacin, and omega-3 fatty acids. Conditional logistic regression estimated odds ratios and 95% confidence intervals. Cholesterol absorption inhibitor use was associated with reduced liver cancer risk in the overall analysis (odds ratio, 0.69; 95% confidence interval, 0.50-0.96) and in analyses based on type 2 diabetes and chronic liver disease status. Although bile acid sequestrant use was associated with increased liver cancer risk in the overall analysis (odds ratio, 5.31; 95% confidence interval, 3.53-7.97), the results of the analyses based on type 2 diabetes and chronic liver disease status were inconsistent. [Correction added on 19 August 2024, after first online publication: In the preceding sentence, the value '3.534' has been changed to '3.54'.]. No associations were observed for the other medications. Cholesterol absorption inhibitors may be associated with reduced liver cancer risk. Whether bile acid sequestrant use was associated with increased risk was only partially supported in the current study.

Opportunities and challenges for identifying undiagnosed Rare Disease patients through analysis of primary care records: long QT syndrome as a test case.

Patients with rare genetic diseases frequently experience significant diagnostic delays. Routinely collected data in the electronic health record (EHR) may be used to help identify patients at risk of undiagnosed conditions. Long QT syndrome (LQTS) is a rare inherited cardiac condition associated with significant morbidity and premature mortality. In this study, we examine LQTS as an exemplar disease to assess if clinical features recorded in the primary care EHR can be used to develop and validate a predictive model to aid earlier detection. 1495 patients with an LQTS diagnostic code and 7475 propensity-score matched controls were identified from 10.5million patients' electronic primary care records in the UK's Clinical Practice Research Datalink (CPRD). Associated clinical features recorded before diagnosis (with p < 0.05) were incorporated into a multivariable logistic regression model, the final model was determined by backwards regression and validated by bootstrapping to determine model optimism. The mean age at LQTS diagnosis was 58.4 (SD 19.41). 18 features were included in the final model. Discriminative accuracy, assessed by area under the curve (AUC), was 0.74, (95% CI 0.73, 0.75) (optimism 6%). Features occurring at significantly greater frequency before diagnosis included: epilepsy, palpitations, syncope, collapse, mitral valve disease and irritable bowel syndrome. This study demonstrates the potential to develop primary care prediction models for rare conditions, like LQTS, in routine primary care records and highlights key considerations including disease suitability, finding an appropriate linked dataset, the need for accurate case ascertainment and utilising an approach to modelling suitable for rare events.

Treatment for osteoporosis and risk of osteonecrosis of the jaw among female patients in the United Kingdom Clinical Practice Research Datalink.

Osteonecrosis of the jaw (ONJ) is a rare adverse effect of antiresorptive drug use; however, the magnitude of risk in osteoporosis patients has not been clearly described. We conducted a cohort study among cancer-free female patients aged 40-89 with, or at risk for, osteoporosis in United Kingdom Clinical Practice Research Datalink (CPRD) Aurum. We followed patients from first osteoporosis treatment until first of osteonecrosis diagnosis, age 90, record end, or other prespecified censoring event, and accumulated person-time by osteoporosis treatment. ONJ cases were selected from CPRD Aurum and linked Hospital Episode Statistics data using an algorithm and manual review. We estimated incidence rates (IR) of ONJ by current treatment type and post discontinuation. We conducted a nested case-control analysis to further describe risk by cumulative dose and duration of antiresorptive therapies. Among 467,654 eligible patients, there were 208 ONJ cases. IR among patients currently treated with antiresorptives (primarily alendronate) was 1.2 (95% confidence interval [CI] 1.0-1.4) per 10,000 person-years. Compared with past use of antiresorptives, odds ratios of ONJ were 3.0 (95% CI 1.5-5.7) after 2-3 years of treatment and 8.1 (95% CI 4.4-15) after 10 years. However, absolute risks remained low (~ 0.05% after 5 years and ~ 0.18% after 10 years) and elevated risks diminished to near zero within 6 to 9 months of discontinuation. Risk of ONJ increased after 2-3 years of treatment with antiresorptives; however, the absolute risk was low and returned to baseline shortly after treatment discontinuation.

Antibiotic prescribing patterns and risk of antibiotic-resistant infections and Clostridium difficile in Warfarin and Direct Oral Anticoagulant users: matched population-based cohort study

BackgroundWarfarin and Direct Oral Anticoagulant (DOAC) users may have more frequent antibiotic prescriptions than non-users. The aim of this study was to estimate rates of common and resistant infections, and antibiotic prescribing amongst warfarin and DOAC users versus non-users.MethodsThis matched retrospective cohort study used data from patients registered with General practices in England contributing to the Clinical Practice Research Datalink GOLD. We included 61,750 adults who initiated warfarin or a DOAC between 1st January 2011 and 31st December 2019, matched 1:1 to non-users. We estimated Incident Rate Ratios (IRR) and 95% Confidence Intervals for three common infections and all-cause antibiotic prescribing. We estimated hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% CIs for the risk of methicillin resistance Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA), other antibiotic-resistant organisms, or Clostridium difficile. We assessed the extent to which any of the effect of warfarin and DOAC use on antibiotic resistant infections or Clostridium difficile was mediated by antibiotic prescribing patterns.Results37,143 warfarin users and 24,607 DOAC users were matched 1:1 to non-users. Warfarin and DOAC users had greater relative consultation rates for respiratory, urinary, and skin infections. All-cause antibiotic prescribing was greater in warfarin and DOAC users (warfarin; adjusted IRR 1.47, 95% CI 1.45–1.50, DOAC; adjusted IRR 1.66, 95% CI 1.63–1.69). Largest effect sizes were observed for flucloxacillin (adjusted IRR 2.11, 95% CI 2.01–2.20), and erythromycin (adjusted IRR 2.32, 95% CI 2.00–2.70). Warfarin users had significantly higher risk of MRSA (adjusted HR 1.68, 95% CI 1.38–2.05) and hospital admission with antibiotic resistant infections (adjusted HR 1.91, 95% CI 1.11–3.30). DOAC users had significantly higher risk of MRSA (adjusted HR 1.57, 95% CI 1.20–2.06), hospital admission with antibiotic resistant infections (adjusted HR 2.13, 95% CI 1.61–2.82), and Clostridium difficile (adjusted HR 1.45, 95% CI 1.10–1.92). We found little evidence to suggest that the increased risks of studied outcomes were mediated by rates of antibiotic prescription.ConclusionWarfarin and DOAC use was associated with greater rates of infection consultations, all-cause antibiotic prescribing, antibiotic resistant infections, and Clostridium difficile, but there was little evidence that antibiotic prescribing rates mediated risk of resistant infections or Clostridium difficile.

Referral to pulmonary rehabilitation and palliative care services in people with idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis in England, 2010–2019

The benefits of pulmonary rehabilitation (PR) and palliative care (PC) as non-pharmacological therapies for people with idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis (IPF) are increasingly being recognised but in the UK the proportion of people with this life-limiting condition who are referred to such services is thought to be low. This retrospective cohort study aimed to describe trends in referrals to PR and PC services among people with IPF over a 10-year period and to identify factors associated with non-referral. Our study cohort was drawn from the UK’s pseudonymised Clinical Practice Research Datalink (CPRD) Aurum primary care database and comprised 17,071 individuals diagnosed with IPF between 2010 and 2019. While 12.0% of IPF patients were offered a referral to PR, less than 2% completed a PR programme. Around a fifth (19.4%) received a referral to generic PC support services; however, this is well below reported PC referral rates for lung cancer patients. Moreover, the majority of PC referrals occurred late; among those who died, 31% were referred within a month and 70% within 6 months of death. Referrals to PR and PC had however increased (by around 2–fold and 4-fold, respectively) over the course of the study period. Factors associated with non-referral to PR included female sex, older age and co-diagnosis of dementia; barriers to PC referral included being female or of Asian or Black ethnicity. We also found evidence of regional differences in referrals. These findings confirm that PR and PC service provision for people with IPF across England is suboptimal.

Time Series Methods to Assess the Impact of Regulatory Action: A Study of UK Primary Care and Hospital Data on the Use of Fluoroquinolones.

To illustrate the interest in using interrupted time series (ITS) methods, this study evaluated the impact of the UK MHRA's March 2019 Risk Minimisation Measures (RMM) on fluoroquinolone usage. Monthly and quarterly fluoroquinolone use incidence rates from 2012 to 2022 were analysed across hospital care (Barts Health NHS Trust), primary care (Clinical Practice Research Datalink (CPRD) Aurum and CPRD GOLD), and linked records from both settings (East Scotland). Rates were stratified by age (19-59 and ≥ 60 years old). Seasonality-adjusted segmented regression and ARIMA models were employed to model quarterly and monthly rates, respectively. Post-RMM, with segmented regression, both age groups in Barts Health experienced nearly complete reductions (> 99%); CPRD Aurum saw 20.19% (19-59) and 19.29% ( 60) reductions; no significant changes in CPRD GOLD; East Scotland had 45.43% (19-59) and 41.47% ( 60) decreases. Slope analysis indicated increases for East Scotland (19-59) and both CPRD Aurum groups, but a decrease for CPRD GOLD's 60; ARIMA detected significant step changes in CPRD GOLD not identified by segmented regression and noted a significant slope increase in Barts Health's 19-59 group. Both models showed no post-modelling autocorrelations across databases, yet Barts Health's residuals were non-normally distributed with non-constant variance. Both segmented regression and ARIMA confirmed the reduction of fluoroquinolones use after RMM across four different UK primary care and hospital databases. Model diagnostics showed good performance in eliminating residual autocorrelation for both methods. However, diagnostics for hospital databases with low incident use revealed the presence of heteroscedasticity and non-normal white noise using both methods.

What happens between first symptoms and first acute exacerbation of COPD - observational study of routine data and patient survey.

Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease affects nearly 400 million worldwide - over a million in the United Kingdom - and is the third leading cause of death. However, there is limited understanding of what prompts a diagnosis, how long this takes from symptom onset and the different approaches to clinical management by primary care professionals. Map out the clinical management and National Health Service contacts from symptom presentation to chronic obstructive pulmonary disease diagnosis and first acute exacerbation of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease in three time periods; construct risk prediction for first acute exacerbation of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease. Retrospective cohort study and cross-sectional survey. Primary care. Patients with incident chronic obstructive pulmonary disease aged > 35 years in England. None. First acute exacerbation of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease. Clinical Practice Research Datalink Aurum; new online survey. Forty thousand five hundred and seventy-seven patients were diagnosed between April 2006 and March 2007 (cohort 1), 48,249 between April 2016 and March 2017 (cohort 2) and 4752 between March and August 2020 (cohort 3). The mean (standard deviation) age was 68.3 years (12.0); 47.3% were female. Around three-quarters were diagnosed in primary care, with a slight fall in cohort 3. Compliance with National Institute for Health and Care Excellence diagnostic guidelines was slightly higher in cohorts 2 and 3 for all patients; 35.8% (10.0% in the year before diagnosis) had all four elements met for all cohorts combined. Multilevel modelling showed considerable between-practice variation in spirometry. The survey on the charity website had 156 responses by chronic obstructive pulmonary disease patients. Many respondents had not heard of the condition, hoped the symptoms would go away and identified various healthcare-related barriers to earlier diagnosis. Clinical Practice Research Datalink analysis showed notable changes in post-diagnosis prescribing from cohort 1 to 2, such as increases in long-acting muscarinic antagonist (21.7-46.3%). Triple therapy rose from 2.9% in cohort 2 to 11.1% in cohort 3. Documented pulmonary rehabilitation rose from just 0.8% in cohort 1 to 13.7% in cohort 2 and 20.9% in cohort 3. For all patients combined, the median time to first acute exacerbation of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease in patients who had one was 1.4 years in cohorts 1 and 2. Acute exacerbation of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease prediction models identified some consistent predictors, such as age, deprivation, severity, comorbidities, post-diagnosis spirometry and annual review. Models without post-diagnosis general practitioner actions had a c-statistic of around 0.70; the highest c-statistic was 0.81, for cohort 2 with post-diagnosis general practitioner actions and 6-month follow-up. All models had good calibration. The three most important predictors in terms of their population attributable risks were being a current smoker and offered smoking cessation advice (32.8%), disease severity (30.6%) and deprivation (15.4%). The highest population attributable risks for variables with adjusted hazard ratios < 1 were chronic obstructive pulmonary disease review (-27.3%) and flu vaccination (-26.6%). Symptom recording and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease diagnosis vary between practice; predicted forced expiratory volume in 1 second had many missing values. There has been some improvement over time in chronic obstructive pulmonary disease diagnosis and management, with large changes in prescribing, though patient and system barriers to further improvement exist. Data available to general practitioners cannot generate risk prediction models with sufficient accuracy. It will be important to expand the COVID-era cohort with longer follow-up and augment general practitioner data for better prediction. This study is registered as Researchregistry.com: researchregistry4762. This award was funded by the National Institute for Health and Care Research (NIHR) Health and Social Care Delivery Research programme (NIHR award ref: 17/99/72) and is published in full in Health and Social Care Delivery Research; Vol. 12, No. 43. See the NIHR Funding and Awards website for further award information.

The Prevalent New-User Design to Study Drug-Drug Interactions: The Example of Sulfonylureas and Warfarin Interaction on the Risk of Severe Hypoglycemia.

The optimal design for pharmacoepidemiologic drug-drug interactions (DDIs) studies is unclear. Using the association between concomitant use of sulfonylureas and warfarin and the risk of severe hypoglycemia as a case study, a DDI with little or no clinical impact, we tested whether the prevalent new-user design can be applied in the area. Among all patients initiating sulfonylureas in the UK's Clinical Practice Research Datalink (1998-2020), we identified those adding-on warfarin while on a sulfonylurea. For each co-exposed patient, we defined a prescription-based exposure set including other sulfonylurea users not adding-on warfarin (comparators). Within each exposure set, we matched each co-exposed patient to five comparators on time-conditional propensity scores (TCPS) and followed them using an as-treated approach. Cox proportional hazards models estimated hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) of severe hypoglycemia associated with concomitant use of sulfonylureas and warfarin compared to use of sulfonylureas alone. Sensitivity analyses addressed the impact of different potential sources of bias. The study cohort included 17 890 patients co-exposed to sulfonylureas and warfarin and 88 749 matched comparators. After TCPS matching, patient characteristics were well-balanced between groups. Compared to use of sulfonylureas alone, concomitant use of sulfonylureas and warfarin was not associated with the risk of severe hypoglycemia (HR, 1.04; 95% CI, 0.92-1.17). Sensitivity analyses were consistent with the primary analysis (HRs ranging from 1.01 to 1.15, all not statistically significant). Our study suggests that the prevalent new-user design could be used for the assessment of clinical effects of DDIs.

Heart failure and major haemorrhage in people with atrial fibrillation

BackgroundHeart failure (HF) is not included in atrial fibrillation (AF) bleeding risk prediction scores, reflecting uncertainty regarding its importance as a risk factor for major haemorrhage. We aimed to report...

Single-inhaler triple versus LABA-ICS therapy for COPD: Comparative safety in real-world clinical practice

Recent treatment guidelines for chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) have replaced the long-acting beta2-agonist and inhaled corticosteroid (LABA-ICS) combination with single-inhaler triple therapy that adds a long-acting muscarinic antagonist (LAMA-LABA-ICS). Yet, the corresponding trials reported numerically higher incidences of cardiovascular adverse events with triple therapy compared with LABA-ICS. Does single-inhaler triple therapy increase the incidence of major adverse cardiovascular events, compared with LABA-ICS, in a real-world clinical practice setting? We identified a cohort of COPD patients, 40 years or older, treated during 2017-2021, from the United Kingdom's Clinical Practice Research Datalink. Among LAMA-naïve patients, initiators of single-inhaler triple therapy were matched 1:1 to LABA-ICS users on time-conditional propensity scores. They were compared on the incidence of major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE), defined as hospitalization for myocardial infarction or stroke, or all-cause-mortality, over one year. The cohort included 10,255 initiators of triple therapy and 10,255 matched users of LABA-ICS. The incidence rate of MACE was 11.3 per 100 per year with triple therapy compared with 8.7 per 100 per year for LABA-ICS. The corresponding adjusted hazard ratio (HR) of MACE with triple therapy was 1.28 (95% CI: 1.05-1.55), relative to LABA-ICS, though the increase was mainly in the first four months (HR 1.41; 95%CI: 1.14-1.74). The HR of all-cause death was 1.31 (95% CI: 1.06-1.62), while for acute myocardial infarction and stroke hospitalization it was 1.00 (95% CI: 0.56-1.79) and 1.06 (95% CI: 0.48-2.36), respectively, with triple therapy, relative to LABA-ICS. In a real-world setting of COPD treatment, patients who initiated single-inhaler triple therapy had an increased incidence of MACE compared with similar patients treated with a LABA-ICS inhaler. This small increase was due to the all-cause mortality component, occurring mainly in the first four months after treatment initiation.