Clinical Practice Research Datalink Research Articles

Antidiabetic Medication and Asthma Attacks

ImportanceElevated body mass index (BMI) and type 2 diabetes are prevalent in asthma and are associated with an increase in the risk of asthma attacks. In experimental studies, the diabetes medications metformin and glucagon-like peptide-1 receptor agonists (GLP-1RA) have mitigated airway inflammation, hyperresponsiveness, and remodeling. However, epidemiological evidence is limited.ObjectiveTo estimate the association of metformin and add-on antidiabetic medications (GLP-1RA, dipeptidyl peptidase-4 inhibitors, sulphonylureas, sodium-glucose cotransporter-2 inhibitors, and insulin) with asthma attacks.Design, Setting, and ParticipantsThe study used data from the UK Clinical Practice Research Datalink (CPRD) Aurum linked hospital admissions and mortality data from 2004 to 2020. A triangulation approach was used that applied 2 distinct approaches to enhance robustness: a self-controlled case series (SCCS) and a metformin new user cohort with inverse probability of treatment weighting (IPTW). Eligible participants were new users of metformin with type 2 diabetes. To evaluate the association between metabolic phenotypes (BMI, glycemic control) and asthma phenotypes (type 2 inflammation, asthma severity), interaction analyses were conducted. Negative control analyses were conducted to assess for bias.ExposureThe primary exposure was metformin; secondary exposures included add-on antidiabetic medications.Main OutcomesThe primary outcome was first asthma exacerbation (short course of oral corticosteroids, unscheduled asthma-related hospital attendance, or death) during 12-month follow-up. Incidence rate ratios (IRRs) with 95% CIs were estimated using fixed-effect conditional Poisson models in the SCCS, and hazard ratios (HRs) were estimated using weighted Cox proportional hazards models in the cohort.ResultsOf more than 2 million adults with asthma, 4278 patients (2617 women [61.2%]; mean [SD] age, 52.9 [13.6] years) were identified for the SCCS and 8424 patients (4690 women [55.7%]; unexposed: mean [SD] age, 61.6 [13.2] years; exposed: mean [SD] age, 59.7 [13.7] years) for the IPTW cohort. Metformin was found to be associated with fewer asthma attacks of similar magnitude in both approaches (SCCS: IRR, 0.68; 95% CI, 0.62-0.75; IPTW: HR, 0.76; 95% CI, 0.67-0.85). Negative control analyses did not find evidence of significant bias. Hemoglobin A1c levels, BMI, blood eosinophil cell counts, and asthma severity did not modify the association. The only add-on antidiabetic medication to have an additive association was GLP-1RA (SCCS: IRR, 0.60; 95% CI, 0.49-0.73).Conclusions and RelevanceThe results of this cohort study suggest that metformin was associated with a lower rate of asthma attacks, with further reductions with the use of GLP-1RA. This appeared to be associated with mechanisms other than through glycemic control or weight loss and occurred across asthma phenotypes.

Dependent censoring bias assessment using inverse probability of censoring weights: Type 2 diabetes mellitus risk in patients initiating bisoprolol versus other antihypertensives in a Clinical Practice Research Datalink cohort study.

Dependent censoring involves a preferential attrition of a subgroup of interest; occurring in survival analysis, it may impact interpretation by introducing a selection bias. To assess the potential bias in a comparison of bisoprolol to other antihypertensives in terms of Type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) incidence, inverse probability of censoring weights (IPCW) was used. It was further used to contextualize results obtained through competing risks analysis. Two estimands were considered to assess T2DM incidence while accounting for deviations from the initial antihypertensive monotherapy (DFM). A hypothetical estimand using IPCW, treating DFM as censoring, was interpreted together with a 'while-on-treatment' estimand, treating DFM as a competing risk. We illustrated our application with a cohort study based on Clinical Practice Research Datalink (CPRD) including 267,352 patients with newly diagnosed arterial hypertension between 2000 and 2017, initiating antihypertensive monotherapy among bisoprolol, other beta-blockers, renin-angiotensin system drugs (ACEi/ARB), diuretics and calcium-channel blockers. A mild dependent censoring process was hypothesized, leading to slight overestimation of T2DM incidence. Although subject to some limitations, a nonsignificant trend toward an excess of risk associated with ACEi/ARB was yielded consistently by IPCW and competing risks analyses. Conversely, in comparisons of bisoprolol versus either diuretics, other beta-blockers or calcium channel blockers, no significant differences or critical dependent censoring impact were found. Concurrent use of complementary estimands allowed formulating a refined interpretation of our findings: though not significant, the trend toward an excess of T2DM risk associated with a ACEi/ARB monotherapy compared with bisoprolol is likely not originating only from the minor dependent censoring. Reassessing identical estimands in other cohorts would provide insights to corroborate or refute this result.

Abstract 4136743: Current Oral Anticoagulation Use Among Patients With Atrial Fibrillation and Risk Factors Associated With Inadequate Treatments: A Report From a UK Population Cohort Study

Background: The worldwide prevalence of atrial fibrillation (AF) continues to grow with approximately 60 million cases each year. Aim: To understand demographic and clinical attributes of patients receiving adequate DOAC (direct oral anticoagulant) treatment, DOAC undertreatments, or no OAC (oral anticoagulant) treatments, thus providing valuable perspectives into the current landscape of stroke prevention in AF within the UK. Methods: We used the Clinical Practice Research Datalink (CPRD) Aurum database from January 2020 to March 2021 for this retrospective observational study. Patients’ characteristics from various cohorts (standard dose [SD], low dose [LD] per label, LD inconsistent per label prescribing, and untreated) were evaluated based on OAC treatment. Duration of index OAC treatment, time to discontinuation and incidence rates across OAC treated cohorts were assessed. A machine learning method (Elastic Net) identified factors associated with being undertreated or untreated. Results: The final sample included 13,341 patients (mean age 78.5 and female 47%). Within a 180-day timeframe post-diagnosis, 76% of patients received OAC treatment, while 24% did not receive any OAC therapy. Among those treated with DOAC (n=9947), 74% were administered SD (n=7238), 18% received LD per labels (n=1756) and 10% were inappropriately prescribed LD of DOACs (n=953). Both LD cohorts tended to have shorter duration of OAC therapy (figure) and higher discontinuation rates (per 100 person-years; LD per label: 42.97; LD not per label: 39.11) compared to the SD cohort (SD: 31.67). Patients who were untreated were associated with elevated bleeding risk factors such as renal disease and prior bleeding history; patients who received inappropriate LD were associated with age above 75, renal disease, GI conditions with PPI (proton pump inhibitor) concomitant treatments when compared to SD cohort. Conclusions: In our study, a considerable proportion of AF patients remained untreated/undertreated and were associated with bleeding risk factors, highlighting the unmet needs within this population. Exploring potential alternative treatment options with enhanced safety profiles could offer substantial benefits to patients in need.

Abstract 4137804: Associations between falls and other serious adverse events and antihypertensive medication in individuals with dementia: An observational cohort study

Background: The balance of benefits and risks associated with lowering blood pressure levels in individuals with dementia remains controversial with a lack of evidence for possible harms associated with antihypertensive treatment (AHT). Objectives: We examined the association between AHT and serious adverse events (SAEs) in individuals with dementia compared to those without. Methods: This was a retrospective analysis using nationally representative, UK general practice population between 1998 and 2018, using data from electronic health records (Clinical Practice Research Datalink, GOLD). Individuals included were age ≥40 years and not previously prescribed AHT. Diagnosis of dementia was based on standardised clinical codes. The primary outcome was the first hospitalisation or death from a fall within 10 years of the follow-up period. Secondary outcomes were first hospitalisation or death from hypotension, syncope, and fracture. Cox regression analyses, adjusted for propensity score were used to assess the risk of SAEs. Results: In a population of 1,219,732 individuals, 23,510 had dementia. Antihypertensive medications were newly prescribed in 4,062/23,510 (17.3%) individuals with dementia and 142,385/1,196,222 (11.9%) individuals without dementia in the 12 months exposure period. In individuals with dementia, AHTs were associated with an increased risk of hospitalisation or death from falls (adjusted hazard ratio [aHR] 1.15, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.08, 1.22), hypotension (aHR 1.51, 95%CI 1.29, 1.78), syncope (aHR 1.34, 95%CI 1.11, 1.61), but not fracture (aHR 1.05, 95%CI 0.96, 1.15). In individuals without dementia, the association between AHT and SAEs was similar, with an increased risk of hospitalisation or death from falls (aHR 1.07, 95%CI 1.05, 1.10). However, absolute risk of falls with AHT per 10,000 individuals per year was significantly higher in individuals with dementia (47, 95%CI 26, 70) compared to those without (14, 95%CI 10, 18). The absolute risks of hypotension and syncope with AHT were also higher in the individuals with dementia compared to those without. Conclusions: AHT was associated with increased risk of SAEs in individuals with and without dementia, however, the absolute risk of harm from falls was more than double in individuals with dementia. Clinicians, patients, and their carers should consider these risks before starting new antihypertensive medications, particularly in the context of dementia, although they remain small.

Identifying and Predicting Risk for Hospital Admission among Patients with Parkinsonism.

Patients with parkinsonism are more likely than age-matched controls to be admitted to hospital. It may be possible to reduce the cost and negative impact by identifying patients at highest risk and intervening to reduce hospital-related costs. Predictive models have been developed in nonparkinsonism populations. The aims were to (1) describe the reasons for admission, (2) describe the rates of hospital admission/emergency department attendance over time, and (3) use routine data to risk stratify unplanned hospital attendance in people with parkinsonism. This retrospective cohort study used Clinical Practice Research Datalink GOLD, a large UK primary care database, linked to hospital admission and emergency department attendance data. The primary diagnoses for nonelective admissions were categorized, and the frequencies were compared between parkinsonism cases and matched controls. Multilevel logistic and negative binomial regression models were used to estimate the risk of any and multiple admissions, respectively, for patients with parkinsonism. There were 9189 patients with parkinsonism and 45,390 controls. The odds of emergency admission more than doubled from 2010 to 2019 (odds ratio [OR] 2.33; 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.96, 2.76; P-value for trend <0.001). Pneumonia was the most common reason for admission among cases, followed by urinary tract infection. Increasing age, multimorbidity, parkinsonism duration, deprivation, and care home residence increased the odds of admission. Rural location was associated with reduced OR for admission (OR 0.79; 95% CI 0.70, 0.89). Our risk stratification tool may enable empirical targeting of interventions to reduce admission risk for parkinsonism patients.

Cohort studies on 71 outcomes among people with atopic eczema in UK primary care data

Atopic eczema may be related to multiple subsequent adverse health outcomes. Here, we provide evidence to judge and compare associations between eczema and a comprehensive set of outcomes. We conducted 71 cohort studies (age, sex, general practice-matched) using Clinical Practice Research Datalink Aurum primary care records (1997−2023), comparing up to 3.6 million people with eczema to 16.8 million without. Eczema was associated with subsequent diagnosis of outcomes with adjusted hazard ratios (99% confidence intervals) from Cox regression of up to 4.02(3.95–4.10) for food allergy (rate difference [RD] per 1,000 person-years of 1.5). Besides strong associations with atopic and allergic conditions (e.g., asthma 1.87[1.39–1.82], RD5.4) and skin infections (e.g., molluscum contagiosum 1.81[1.64–1.96], RD1.8), the strongest associations were with Hodgkin’s lymphoma (1.85[1.66–2.06], RD0.02), Alopecia Areata (1.77[1.71–1.83], RD0.2), Crohn’s disease (1.62[1.54–1.69], RD0.1), Urticaria (1.58[1.57–1.60], RD1.9), Coeliac disease (1.42[1.37–1.47], RD0.1), Ulcerative colitis (1.40[1.34–1.46], RD0.1), Autoimmune liver disease (1.32[1.21–1.43], RD0.01), and Irritable bowel syndrome (1.31[1.29–1.32], RD0.7). Sensitivity analyses revealed the impact of consultation bias or choice of cohort age cut-off on findings. Comparatively large HRs in severe eczema were seen for some liver, gastrointestinal and cardiovascular conditions, osteoporosis, and fractures. Most cancers and neurological conditions were not associated with eczema.

Antidepressant prescribing inequalities in people with comorbid depression and type 2 diabetes: A UK primary care electronic health record study.

To compare the likelihood of being prescribed an antidepressant in depressed individuals with and without type 2 diabetes. We performed a matched cohort study using primary care record data from the UK Clinical Practice Research Datalink. We used multivariable logistic regression to compare antidepressant prescribing during the first five years of starting oral antidiabetic medication to a comparison group without type 2 diabetes, matched based on GP practice, age and sex. We performed subgroup analyses stratified by sex, age and ethnicity. People with type 2 diabetes and depression were 75% less likely to be prescribed an antidepressant compared to people with depression alone (odds ratio (OR) 0.25, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.25 to 0.26). This difference was greater in males (OR 0.23, 95% CI, 0.22 to 0.24), people older than 56 years (OR 0.23, 95% CI, 0.22 to 0.24), or from a minoritised ethnic background (Asian OR 0.14, 95% CI 0.12-0.14; Black OR 0.12, 95% CI 0.09-0.14). There may be inequalities in access to antidepressant treatment for people with type 2 diabetes, particularly those who are male, older or from minoritised ethnic backgrounds.

Tuberculosis and increased incidence of cardiovascular disease: Cohort study using US and UK health records.

Limited evidence suggests elevated risks of cardiovascular disease (CVD) among people diagnosed with tuberculosis (TB) disease, though studies have not adjusted for pre-existing CVD risk. We carried out a cohort study using two separate datasets, estimating CVD incidence in people with TB versus those without. Using data from the United States (Veterans Health Administration) and the United Kingdom (Clinical Practice Research Datalink) for 2000-2020 we matched adults with incident TB disease and no CVD history 2-years before TB diagnosis (US n=2,121; UK n=15,820) with up to 10 people without TB on the basis of age, sex, race/ethnicity and healthcare practice. Participants were followed beginning 2-years before TB diagnosis and for 2-years subsequently. The acute period was defined as 3-months before/after TB diagnosis. TB, CVD and covariates were identified from electronic routinely collected data (primary and secondary care; mortality). Poisson models estimated incident rate ratios (IRR) for CVD events in people with TB compared to those without. CVD incidence was consistently higher in people with TB, including during the baseline period (pre-TB) and particularly in the acute period: IRRs were US 3.5 (95% Confidence Interval 2.7-4.4), UK 2.7 (2.2-3.3). Rate Ratios remained high after adjusting for differences in pre-existing CVD risk: US 3.2 (2.2-4.4), UK 1.6 (1.2-2.1). Increased CVD incidence was observed in people with TB versus those without, especially within months of TB diagnosis, persistent after adjustment for differences in pre-existing risk. Enhancing CVD screening and risk management may improve long-term outcomes in people with TB.

Clinical Burden and Healthcare Resource Utilization Associated With Managing Transfusion-dependent β-Thalassemia in England

PurposePatients with transfusion-dependent β-thalassemia (TDT) have reduced levels of β-globin, leading to ineffective erythropoiesis and iron overload. Patients with TDT depend on regular red blood cell transfusions (RBCTs) and iron chelation therapy for survival and management of disease- and treatment-related clinical complications. This study describes the clinical and economic burden in patients with TDT in England. MethodsThis longitudinal, retrospective study linked the Clinical Practice Research Datalink (CPRD) database with secondary care data from the Hospital Episode Statistics database to identify patients with a diagnosis of β-thalassemia between July 1, 2008, and June 30, 2018. Included patients had a diagnosis of β-thalassemia prior to the index date, ≥8 RBCTs per year for ≥2 consecutive years, and ≥1 year of follow-up data available from the index date. Each eligible patient was exact matched with up to 5 controls in the CPRD. Proportions of deaths and rates of mortality, acute and chronic complications, and healthcare resource utilization (HCRU) were calculated during the follow-up period. FindingsOf 11,359 identified patients with β-thalassemia, 237 patients with TDT met the eligibility criteria and were matched with 1184 controls. The mean age at the index date was approximately 25 years in the patient and control groups. The proportion of deaths (7.17% vs 1.18%; P < 0.05) and mortality rate (1.19 deaths per 100 person-years vs 0.20 deaths per 100 person-years) were higher among patients with TDT compared to controls. Endocrine complications and bone disorders were the most prevalent complications among patients with TDT (58.23%) and included osteoporosis (29.11%), diabetes mellitus (28.27%), and hypopituitarism (28.27%). Patients with TDT had a mean of 13.62 RBCTs per patient per year (PPPY). HCRU was substantially higher among patients with TDT, wherein patients with TDT had higher rates of prescriptions recorded in primary care (24.09 vs 8.61 PPPY), outpatient visits (16.69 vs 1.31 PPPY), and inpatient hospitalizations (17.41 vs 0.24 PPPY) than controls. Inpatient hospitalizations were primarily <1 day, with 16.62 events PPPY lasting <1 day and 0.79 events PPPY lasting ≥1 day. Patients with TDT aged ≥18 years had increased rates of mortality, clinical complications, and HCRU than those aged <18 years. ImplicationsPatients with TDT in England have higher mortality than matched controls, substantial disease-related clinical complications, and substantial HCRU. High mortality and clinical complications highlight the need for additional innovative therapies for TDT.

Risk of dementia associated with anticholinergic drugs for overactive bladder in adults aged ≥55 years: nested case-control study

ObjectiveTo investigate whether different anticholinergic drug treatments for overactive bladder have differential risks for incident dementia, in a large representative population of older adults in England.DesignNested case-control study.SettingGeneral practices in...

Clinical Burden and Health Care Resource Utilization Associated With Managing Sickle Cell Disease With Recurrent Vaso-occlusive Crises in England

PurposeSickle cell disease (SCD) is an inherited red blood cell disease caused by a mutation in the gene encoding the β-subunit of adult hemoglobin that leads to hemolysis, anemia, vaso-occlusive crises (VOCs), morbidity, and mortality. This study provides a real-world assessment of the clinical burden and health care resource utilization (HCRU) associated with SCD with recurrent VOCs in England. MethodsThis retrospective study linked primary care records from the Clinical Practice Research Datalink database with secondary care records from the Hospital Episode Statistics database to identify patients with SCD with recurrent VOCs between July 1, 2008, and June 30, 2018. A VOC was defined as SCD with crisis, acute chest syndrome, or priapism. Eligible patients had SCD, ≥2 VOCs/year in any 2 consecutive years after a diagnosis of SCD, and ≥1 year of follow-up data from the index date. Patients were exact matched with 5 controls from the general population in the databases. Demographics were assessed at index. Mortality, clinical complications, and HCRU were summarized during follow-up. FindingsAfter applying eligibility criteria, 1117 patients with SCD with recurrent VOCs and 5585 controls were included in the study. Mean age at index was 25 years in both groups. The proportion of deaths (3.67% vs 0.68%; P < 0.001) and mortality rate (0.78 deaths per 100 person-years vs 0.16 deaths per 100 person-years) were substantially higher in patients with SCD with recurrent VOCs versus matched controls. Mean (standard deviation [SD]) age of death in patients with SCD with recurrent VOCs who died during the follow-up period was 40.17 (14.09) years. The mean (SD) rate of VOCs for patients with SCD with recurrent VOCs was 5.84 (12.50) per patient per year (PPPY) during follow-up. Compared with matched controls, patients with SCD with recurrent VOCs had substantially higher mean [SD] rates PPPY of inpatient hospitalizations (7.59 [14.50] vs 0.32 [2.71]), prescriptions (31.06 [60.62] vs 7.58 [27.77]), and outpatient visits (9.60 [10.69] vs 1.78 [4.18]). Older patients and those with increased numbers of VOCs had increased mortality, frequency of clinical complications, and HCRU. ImplicationsDespite currently available care, patients with SCD with recurrent VOCs in England have increased mortality, substantial clinical complications, and significant HCRU driven by VOCs and hospitalizations. Elevated mortality and clinical complications in patients with SCD with recurrent VOCs highlight the need for novel therapies in this space.

Is alcohol use disorder associated with higher rates of depression and anxiety among people with new onset type 2 diabetes? A cohort study using linked primary care data in England

IntroductionDepression and alcohol use disorder (AUD) in people living with Type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) are associated with worse health outcomes. AUD is strongly associated with depression and anxiety, but it is not known how these conditions cluster in people with T2DM. We investigated rates of new episodes of depression and anxiety following T2DM diagnosis in people with and without prior AUD among an English primary care population.MethodsThe study population was people diagnosed with T2DM between 2004 and 2019. We used the Clinical Practice Research Datalink (CPRD) Aurum database and linked Hospital Episode Statistics Admitted Patient Care (HES APC) and Office for National Statistics (ONS) mortality data. We examined incidence of new episodes of anxiety or depression in people with T2DM with and without AUD. AUD was defined as any of i) clinical diagnosis; ii) alcohol withdrawal; or iii) chronic alcohol-related harm (physical or mental) using SNOMED-CT or ICD-10 codes. People were excluded if they had codes for depression/anxiety 12 months prior to T2DM diagnosis. Poisson regression models were fitted adjusting sequentially for a) age, gender, calendar time; b) region, Index of Multiple Deprivation, ethnicity, body mass index, smoking status, Charlson co-morbidity index; and c) history of a mental health condition.ResultsOur study population was 479,447 people of whom 10,983 (2.3%) had an AUD code prior to T2DM diagnosis.After adjusting for all measured confounders except history of a mental health condition, IRR for depression was 2.00 (95% CI 1.93, 2.06) for people with AUD compared to without AUD. This reduced to 1.45 (95% CI 1.41, 1.50) after further adjustment for history of a mental health condition.Findings for anxiety were substantially similar to those for depression (adjusted for all measured confounders except history of a mental health condition, IRR 2.08 95% CI 1.99, 2.18 fully adjusted IRR 1.48 95% CI 1.41, 1.55).ConclusionsPeople with AUD have over double the rates of depression and anxiety following T2DM diagnosis than those without AUD. This was only partially explained by pre-existing diagnoses of mental health conditions. A holistic approach incorporating mental health support is needed to improve health outcomes for people with AUD who develop T2DM.Trial registrationNot applicable.

Comparative risk of mortality in new users of prescription opioids for noncancer pain: results from the International Pharmacosurveillance Study.

Although opioids continue to be used internationally for noncancer pain, evidence to date on the comparative safety of different opioids is sparse and conflicting. The aim of this study was to examine the comparative risk of all-cause mortality in patients newly initiated on opioids for noncancer pain, across 3 jurisdictions in the United Kingdom (UK), United States, and Canada. A multicentre retrospective, population-based cohort study was conducted. Data sources included UK national primary care electronic health records (Clinical Practice Research Datalink), The Partners HealthCare Research Patient Data in Boston (US), and The Montreal Population Health Record data (Canada). New users of opioids aged ≥18 years without cancer were included. Patients with a diagnosis of a pain condition and with known back pain were analysed separately. Fully adjusted hazard ratios (HRs) were calculated using Cox-proportional models and adjusted for confounders. In total, 1,066,216 patients were included (UK: n = 993,294; Boston, US: n = 43,243; Montreal, Canada: n = 26,116). Compared with codeine, patients using morphine had a significantly higher adjusted risk in the UK {HR: 12.58 [95% confidence interval (CI), 11.87-13.32]}, US (HR: 8.62 [95% CI, 3.34-22.27]), and Canadian cohorts (HR: 6.69; [95% CI, 1.35-32.22]). In addition, other factors associated with higher mortality were being on combination opioids, fentanyl, buprenorphine, and oxycodone. Compared with those on <50 morphine milligram equivalents/day, patients on higher-doses experience an incremental increase in risk. In new users of opioids, compared with codeine, strong opioids, including morphine, fentanyl, buprenorphine, oxycodone, and combination opioids, and those on ≥50 morphine milligram equivalent/day were associated with a higher subsequent risk of all-cause mortality.

Association between warfarin and direct oral anticoagulants users and risk of mortality: cohort studies in England and Hong Kong

Abstract Background The evidence of the association between warfarin and risk of mortality compared with direct oral anticoagulants (DOACs) has been mixed in current literature. Purpose To investigate the association between all-cause mortality and warfarin, compared with DOACs. Methods Population-based cohort studies were conducted using the data from the Hong Kong Clinical Data Analysis and Reporting System (CDARS) and United Kingdom Clinical Practice Research Datalink (CPRD) Aurum. People with atrial fibrillation aged ≥18 years who initiated warfarin or a DOAC during the study period (1st Jan 2014 - 31st Dec 2019) were identified. Follow-up started from the first date of oral anticoagulant prescription and ended at earliest of the date of death, the day before drug switching (between warfarin and DOACs), transferring out of the practice (CPRD Aurum only), last data collection date for the practice (CPRD Aurum only) or the end of study period. We estimated propensity score (PS) based on the list of potential confounders including demographics, co-morbidities, co-medications and polypharmacy. Cox proportional hazards regression model with PS-weighting was used to estimate hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs). Results Among 227,190 new oral anticoagulant users, 54,367 (23.93%) died. The median follow-up was 2.96 and 2.45 years in CPRD and CDARS, respectively. Compared with DOAC use, a lower hazard of all-cause mortality was found in warfarin use (PS-weighted hazard ratio [HR]=0.94, 95% confidence interval [CI]=0.89-0.99) in CPRD; while a higher hazard was observed in warfarin users (PS-weighted HR=1.31, 95% CI=1.24-1.39) in CDARS, versus DOAC users. Consistent results were seen in both databases when stratified warfarin users by Time in Therapeutic Range (TTR). We observed a lower hazard of all-cause mortality in warfarin users with TTR≥65% (PS-weighted HR=0.90, 95% CI=0.85-0.94 in CPRD; 0.87, 0.79-0.96 in CDARS) and increased hazard in warfarin users with TTR&amp;lt;65% (PS-weighted HR=1.37, 95% CI=1.25-1.49 in CPRD; 1.57, 1.48-1.66 in CDARS), versus DOAC users. Conclusions The hazard of all-cause mortality associated with warfarin compared with DOACs were found to be conflicting across databases. However, both databases consistently showed that an increased hazard of all-cause mortality was only found in warfarin users with TTR&amp;lt;65% but not in those with TTR≥65%, suggesting that the differences in hazard of all-cause mortality associated with warfarin compared with DOAC, in part may depend on anticoagulation control in warfarin users. We recommend that warfarin users with poor INR control warrant closer clinical attention and could be considered for a switch to DOACs.

ESC Heart Failure Association age-adjusted natriuretic peptide thresholds for a new diagnosis of heart failure: diagnostic accuracy study

Abstract Background Natriuretic peptide (NP) testing is an important part of the heart failure (HF) diagnostic pathway. The European Society of Cardiology (ESC) HF guidelines currently recommend a NT-proBNP cut-off &amp;lt;125pg/mL to rule out HF in the community.1 However, NP level increases with age and an NT-proBNP above 125pg/mL is common in older people in the general population. The ESC Heart Failure Association (HFA) recently published a practical algorithm for early diagnosis of HF recommending age-specific rule-in NT-proBNP thresholds: ≥125pg/ml for patients aged under 50 years, ≥250pg/ml for patients aged 50-75 years, and ≥500pg/ml for patients over 75 years (Figure 1).2 Purpose Our aim was to assess NT-proBNP test performance for HF diagnosis at the ESC HFA age-specific thresholds. Method We analysed our existing diagnostic accuracy study dataset containing primary care data from the Clinical Practice Research Datalink (CPRD) linked to inpatient Hospital Episode Statistics (HES) inpatient data between 2004 and 2018. NT-proBNP results were taken from the GP record (index test) and the primary outcome (reference standard) was a HF diagnostic code entered in CPRD or HES within six months of the test. NT-proBNP accuracy for HF was assessed by calculating sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive values (PPV), and negative predictive value (NPV). Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves were plotted to assess overall test performance. Results In total, 229,580 patients had an NP test and 21,102 (9.2%) were diagnosed with HF. The current ESC NT-proBNP threshold ≥125pg/mL had sensitivity 94.6% (95% confidence intervals [CI] 94.2 to 95.0), specificity 50.0% (95%CI 49.7 to 50.3), PPV 16.4% (16.1 to 16.6), NPV 98.9% (98.8 to 99.0)). Area under the ROC curve was 0.874 (0.871 to 0.877). Age-specific NT-proBNP thresholds performance: Below 50 years (≥125pg/mL): 32,882 people tested, HF prevalence 3.8%. Sensitivity 83.5 % (81.3 to 85.5), specificity 77.6% (77.2 to 78.1), PPV 13.0% (12.2 to 13.7), NPV 99.2% (99.0 to 99.3). 50 to 75 years ≥250pg/mL: 105,771 people tested, HF prevalence 9.8%. Sensitivity 88.5% (87.9 to 89.1), specificity 67.8% (67.5 to 68.0), PPV 23.1% (22.6 to 23.5), NPV 98.2% (98.1 to 98.3). Above 75 years ≥500pg/mL: 16,694 people tested, HF prevalence 17.5%. Sensitivity 84.4% (83.0 to 85.7), specificity 63.5% (62.7 to 64.3), PPV 32.8% (31.7 to 33.9), NPV 95.0% (94.6 to 95.5). Conclusion The age-specific NT-proBNP thresholds in the HFA practical algorithm had higher specificity so fewer people without HF would be referred, reducing demand for echocardiography and cardiology assessment overall meaning people with HF could be seen earlier. However, lower sensitivity means some cases of HF would initially be missed. NT-proBNP was a reliable ‘rule-out’ test at population level. The optimal NT-proBNP threshold will depend on the priorities and capacity of the national healthcare system.

Patient characteristics and incidence of cardiac amyloidosis: an observational study in the UK clinical setting using electronic health records

Abstract Background Cardiac amyloidosis (CA) is associated with a high mortality rate due to sudden or progressive heart failure. It is often misdiagnosed due to non-specific symptoms, and its true incidence and prevalence in the United Kingdom (UK) remain uncertain. Purpose To describe patient characteristics and incidence of CA in the UK clinical setting using electronic health records. Methods In this retrospective observational study, anonymised, linked primary and secondary care data (Clinical Practice Research Datalink, CPRD and Hospital Episode Statistics, HES) were used to describe individuals diagnosed with CA. The CPRD database contains de-identified patient data sourced from a sample of general practitioner (GP) practices in the UK. Patients aged 18 years and older with a recorded Read or SNOMED-CT diagnosis code for CA or record of treatment with tafamidis (a licensed but not reimbursed treatment for transthyretin amyloid cardiomyopathy, ATTR-CM in the UK) in the period between January 2004 to December 2021 were included. The index date was defined as the earliest recorded date of CA diagnosis or tafamidis treatment. Demographic and clinical data were summarised using descriptive statistics. Incidence rates were reported per 100,000 person-years (PY). Results There were a total of 3,788 patients with CA (mean age: 67 years; 61% males) of which only 277 were coded as having wild-type transthyretin (ATTRwt) CA in mostly older patients (mean age: 79 years). The low patient counts of ATTRwt amyloidosis could be attributed to the lack of specificity in CA types and the low utilisation of ATTR amyloidosis codes. Heart Failure, essential hypertension and dyspnoea were the most common clinical presentations recorded in the 12 months to first diagnosis code or tafamidis prescription for CA (Table). The incidence of CA varied from 0.75 in 2004 to a peak of 1.96 in 2021, per 100,000 PY; a 2.9-fold increase in newly coded diagnoses in CA. There was a slight decline in the rates in 2020 and 2021 (Figure). Incidence rates in males and females increased over the 17-year period, with males consistently having higher rates than females. The incidence rate in females started from a lower base at 0.62/100,000 PY in 2004, increased by a factor of 1.9 to 1.1/100,000 PY, whereas in males it started at 0.88/100,000 PY and rose by a factor of 2.9 to 2.5 /100,000 PY. Incidence rates in subgroup populations have also been analysed. Conclusions In the UK clinical setting, the incidence rate of newly coded CA increased overall between 2004 and 2021, as well as in both male and female subgroups. The data suggest CA is becoming more common, or that awareness has improved, and there is now an urgent need for enhanced methods of detection, characterisation, and the need for thorough data capture to shape future pathway advancements.

Characterization of individuals with atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease, with and without chronic kidney disease: results from a UK electronic health record database

Abstract Introduction Elevated C-reactive protein (CRP) levels are often present in individuals with atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD), including in those who also have chronic kidney disease (CKD), and are associated with an increased risk of major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE). To understand unmet needs in the identification and management of at-risk individuals, we characterized patients with ASCVD in a UK database, according to CKD stage and CRP levels. Methods This study comprised separate retrospective cross-sectional and longitudinal cohort analyses of patients in the Clinical Practice Research Datalink (CPRD) Aurum database, a representative UK database of anonymized primary care records. In the cross-sectional analysis, CPRD Aurum was linked with Hospital Episode Statistics (HES) and Index of Multiple Deprivation data to assess patient characteristics on 1 Jan 2021 (defined as index date). In the cohort analysis, CPRD Aurum was linked with HES and Office for National Statistics mortality data to determine the incidence of 3-point MACE (3P-MACE) over approximately 5 years of follow-up (index date: 1 Jan 2016). Both analyses included individuals ≥ 18 years old with an ASCVD diagnosis in both primary and secondary care in the 5 years pre-index. Data were analysed using descriptive statistics. Patient characteristics were assessed by CKD stage; for individuals with CKD stage 3–4, characteristics were also assessed by CRP levels. Results In total, 225,767 and 230,055 individuals were included in the cross-sectional and cohort analyses, respectively. The prevalence of CKD stage 3–4 among individuals with ASCVD was 24.3% (Table 1). The proportion of individuals with elevated CRP (CRP ≥ 2 mg/L) and anaemia increased for successively higher CKD severity groups; in addition, glycated haemoglobin (HbA1c) ≥ 7% and elevated blood pressure were generally more frequently observed in individuals with CKD than in those without (Table 1). Individuals with ASCVD, CKD stage 3–4 and elevated CRP had higher HbA1c and total cholesterol levels and a greater proportion had obesity, anaemia and elevated blood pressure, compared with individuals with CRP &amp;lt; 2 mg/L (Table 2). Over 5 years’ follow-up, the incidence of 3P-MACE increased with CKD severity (Table 1) and with increasing CRP levels in individuals with ASCVD and CKD stage 3–4 (Table 2). However, only 28% of individuals with ASCVD and CKD stage 3–4 had CRP measurements. Conclusion Adults with ASCVD, CKD and elevated CRP identified from primary and secondary UK care records had a higher disease burden than individuals with CRP levels &amp;lt; 2 mg/L. In the UK, testing CRP levels is not routinely recommended, resulting in a high proportion of missing CRP measurements in this study. Routine testing of CRP may help in identifying patients with residual cardiovascular risk and has the potential to support risk assessment and management of patients with ASCVD and CKD.

Achieving integrated care through clusters of co-occurring diseases for people with multimorbidity

Abstract Background People with multimorbidity are often seen in many different specialist health services, resulting in fragmented care. Conventional services are designed around specialties based on anatomical systems, rather than diseases that occur together. We examined whether organising services around clusters of co-occurring diseases would lead to fewer interactions with unique services and so improve integrated care. Methods We used the Clinical Practice Research Datalink, a nationally representative sample of primary care data in England, including all patients registered on 1st January 2015 with multimorbidity (two or more of 212 long-term conditions (LTCs)). We used the assignment of 212 LTCs to 15 clusters of co-occurring diseases, derived from our earlier work. For each patient, we calculated the number of interactions with different specialists, under both the existing specialty-based model, and the hypothetical cluster-based model, under the assumption that a patient required review for each LTC. Results Of 6,200,973 patients with multimorbidity, the mean age was 53 years, with a median (interquartile range) of 8 (5 - 11) LTCs per person. There was considerable variation in the assignment of diseases comparing 15 clusters versus 15 specialties. Under the existing model, 409,708 (6.6%) patients interacted with only one specialty, and under the hypothetical cluster model, 584,446 (9.4%) patients interacted with only one cluster. On average, patients interacted with 3.66 specialties versus 3.30 hypothetical clusters (p &amp;lt; 0.001 for difference). Conclusions Health services designed around clusters of co-occurring diseases might lead patients to interact with fewer different services and so experience less fragmented care. Further work is needed to understand which specialties collaborating, and how, would have the greatest impact on improving integrated care. Key messages • Health services designed around clusters of co-occurring diseases led to a small reduction in the number of interactions with different services per year. • Designing services around clusters of co-occurring diseases might reduce fragmented care for people with multimorbidity.

The association between drugs and vaccines commonly prescribed to older people and bullous pemphigoid: a case-control study.

Bullous pemphigoid (BP) is an autoimmune skin disease that affects mainly older people. Numerous drugs have been previously associated with BP based on case series and small hospital-based studies. More reliable and precise estimates of associations between a broad selection of drugs/vaccines and BP will enable greater awareness of potential increased risk of BP following certain medicines and help identify clinical, histological and genomic characteristics of drug-induced BP for different types of culprit drugs. Greater awareness could lead to earlier recognition or suspicion of BP and referral to a dermatologist for diagnosis. Earlier diagnosis may lead to less aggressive treatment and improved well-being. To determine the association between drugs/vaccines commonly prescribed to older people and BP risk. We conducted a population-based nested case-control study between 1998-2021 using electronic primary care records from the Clinical Practice Research Datalink. We matched BP cases with up to 5 controls. Exposures were drugs/vaccines commonly prescribed to older people. We used multivariable conditional logistic regression adjusting for multiple drug use. For antibiotics, we considered prescriptions may be prescribed for undiagnosed symptoms of BP which resemble skin infection (protopathic bias) in a sensitivity analysis. Antibiotics were the therapeutic group associated with the highest risk of BP (OR: 4.60; 95%CI 4.40-4.80). However, after adjusting for protopathic bias, the OR reduced to 2.08 (95%CI 1.99-2.17). After adjusting for protopathic bias, of all antibiotic classes and subclasses, penicillins and penicillinase-resistant penicillins had the strongest associations with BP risk (OR: 3.44; 95%CI 3.29-3.60; sensitivity analysis OR; 1.74; 1.66-1.84 and OR: 7.56; 95%CI 7.15-8.00; sensitivity analysis OR: 2.64; 95%CI 2.45-2.85, respectively). Other drugs strongly associated with increased risk were gliptins (OR: 2.77; 95% CI 2.37-3.23), and second-generation antipsychotics (OR: 2.58; 95%CI 2.20-3.03). Healthcare professionals need to be aware of BP risk in older people particularly when prescribing penicillinase-resistant penicillins, gliptins, and second-generation antipsychotic drugs to recognise and manage BP early. Due to the low prevalence of disease, we do not suggest avoidance of drugs/vaccines to prevent BP. Further research should consider recency, dosage, and duration of antibiotic treatments.

Associations between general practice and outpatient care continuity in people with multimorbidity

Abstract Background Relational continuity in primary and secondary care is linked to better health outcomes for patients, but it is unclear whether metrics of continuity in each setting are associated. Our study examined the association between relational continuity in general practice (GP) and continuity of hospital outpatient specialties in people with clusters of multimorbidity. Methods We used GP records from the Clinical Practice Research Datalink, linked to Hospital Episode Statistics outpatient records. Included were patients ≥18 years, with two or more of 212 Long-Term Conditions (LTCs), registered throughout 2019 and with at least three GP and three outpatient appointments. The Continuity of Care Index (COCI) was calculated separately for visits to the same i) GP and ii) hospital specialty, where 0 represents no continuity and 1 represents all visits to the same GP or specialty. We assessed the association between the indices using univariable and multivariable fractional logit regression. We calculated expected COCI scores for each LTC and assessed variation in the COCI between LTCs assigned to one of 15 clusters of co-occurring diseases derived previously. A sensitivity analysis repeated analysis using the Sequential Continuity (SECON) score, which captures longitudinal continuity. Results Of 1,135,903 patients, 56.2% were ≥60 years. The median (IQR) COCI in GP was 0.22 (0.11-0.40) and in outpatients was 0.33 (0.20-0.52). Although statistically significant (p &amp;lt; 0.001) the relationship between the two measures was clinically insignificant in both univariable and multivariable models. No strong relationships were found between COCI scores and LTC clusters. Similar patterns were found using the SECON score. Conclusions We found no strong association between continuity of care in GP and outpatient settings, and no clear patterns with LTC clusters. This suggests that lack of continuity in secondary care is not compensated for by increased continuity of care in primary care. Key messages • We found no meaningful association between measures of continuity of care in general practice and hospital outpatient settings. • Our findings suggest that lack of continuity of outpatient care is not compensated for by increased continuity in primary care.