General Government Revenues Research Articles

The cost of free health care for all Kenyans: assessing the financial sustainability of contributory and non-contributory financing mechanisms

BackgroundThe need to provide quality and equitable health services and protect populations from impoverishing health care costs has pushed universal health coverage (UHC) to the top of global health policy agenda. In many developing countries where the majority of the population works in the informal sector, there are critical debates over the best financing mechanisms to progress towards UHC. In Kenya, government health policy has prioritized contributory financing strategy (social health insurance) as the main financing mechanism for UHC. However, there are currently no studies that have assessed the cost of either social health insurance (SHI) as the contributory approach or an alternative financing mechanism involving non-contributory (general tax funding) approaches to UHC in Kenya. The aim of this study was to critically assess the financial requirements of both contributory and non-contributory mechanisms to financing UHC in Kenya in the context of large informal sector populations.MethodsSimIns Basic® model, Version 2.1, 2008 (WHO/GTZ), was used to assess the feasibility of UHC in Kenya and provide estimates of financial resource needs for UHC over a 17-year period (2013–2030). Data sources included review of national and international literature on inflation, demography, macro-economy, health insurance, health services unit costs and utilization rates. The data were triangulated across geographic regions for accuracy and integrity of the simulation. SimIns models for 10 years only so data from the final year of the model was used to project for another 7 years. The 17-year period was necessary because the Government of Kenya aims to achieve UHC by 2030.Results and conclusionsThe results show that SHI is financially sustainable (Sustainability in this study is used to mean that expenditure does not outstrip revenue.) (revenues and expenditure match) within the first five years of implementation, but it becomes less sustainable with time. Modelling for a non-contributory scenario, on the other hand, showed greater sustainability both in the short- and long-term. The financial resource requirements for universal access to health care through general government revenue are compared with a contributory health insurance scheme approach. Although both funding options would require considerable government subsidies, given the magnitude of the informal sector in Kenya and their limited financial capacity, a tax-funded system would be less costly and more sustainable in the long-term than an insurance scheme approach. However, more innovative financing for health care as well as giving the health sector higher priority in government expenditure will be required to make the non-contributory financing mechanism more sustainable.

Subsidized health insurance coverage of people in the informal sector and vulnerable population groups: trends in institutional design in Asia.

BackgroundMany low- and middle-income countries with a social health insurance system face challenges on their road towards universal health coverage (UHC), especially for people in the informal sector and vulnerable population groups or the informally employed. One way to address this is to subsidize their contributions through general government revenue transfers to the health insurance fund.This paper provides an overview of such health financing arrangements in Asian low- and middle-income countries. The purpose is to assess the institutional design features of government subsidized health insurance type arrangements for vulnerable and informally employed population groups and to explore how these features contribute to UHC progress.MethodsThis regional study is based on a literature search to collect country information on the specific institutional design features of such subsidization arrangements and data related to UHC progress indicators, i.e. population coverage, financial protection and access to care. The institutional design analysis focuses on eligibility rules, targeting and enrolment procedures; financing arrangements; the pooling architecture; and benefit entitlements.ResultsSuch financing arrangements currently exist in 8 countries with a total of 14 subsidization schemes. The most frequent groups covered are the poor, older persons and children. Membership in these arrangements is mostly mandatory as is full subsidization. An integrated pool for both the subsidized and the contributors exists in half of the countries, which is one of the most decisive features for equitable access and financial protection. Nonetheless, in most schemes, utilization rates of the subsidized are higher compared to the uninsured, but still lower compared to insured formal sector employees. Total population coverage rates, as well as a higher share of the subsidized in the total insured population are related with broader eligibility criteria.ConclusionsOverall, government subsidized health insurance type arrangements can be effective mechanism to help countries progress towards UHC, yet there is potential to improve on institutional design features as well as implementation.Electronic supplementary materialThe online version of this article (doi:10.1186/s12939-016-0436-3) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Національний бізнес-цикл і доходи Зведеного бюджету України: підходи до оцінки кількісного впливу

Національний бізнес-цикл і доходи Зведеного бюджету України: підходи до оцінки кількісного впливу

The Determinants of Pricing Sovereign Credit Risk in Emerging Markets Under a Bayesian View

This study examines the variables that impact sovereign credit risk in emerging countries. For this analysis, we used panel data for 14 emerging countries covering 2006 to 2013 to test the predictive power of 11 macroeconomic and financial variables in determining sovereign credit spread. The methodology used for selecting the variables was Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA). This method made it possible to investigate not only which variables had more explanatory power, by means of their probability of inclusion in the ideal prediction model, but also address the issue of uncertainty in the model specification. For 2006 to 2013, the GDP growth and VIX variables were the only ones that presented an inclusion probability greater than 50%. When only the period following the US crisis (2009 to 2013) was evaluated, there was a change in the model, with the variables related to country performance, such as GDP growth and the General Government Revenue to GDP variable, becoming more relevant. This result is indicative of the greater relevance of emerging countries’ financial results after the 2008 crisis for calculating their risk.

Robust analysis of the determinants of healthcare expenditure growth: evidence from panel data for low-, middle- and high-income countries.

This paper examines the determinants of healthcare expenditure for low-, middle- and high-income countries, and it quantifies their influences in order to assess policies for achieving universal health coverage. We elaborate two models, a fixed-effect model and the dynamic panel model, to estimate the factors associated with the total health expenditure growth as well as its major components for 167 countries over the period of 1993-2013. The panel data on total health expenditure per capita and its components were taken from the World Development Indicators. Overall, our results showed that total health expenditure per capita is rising in all countries over time as a result of rising incomes. However, our estimates showed that the income elasticity of health expenditure ranged from 0.75 to 0.96 in the fixed-effect static panel model, while in the dynamic panel model, it was smaller and ranged from 0.16 to 0.47. Our empirical findings indicate that development assistance for health reduced government domestic spending on health but increased total government health spending. Our results also indicate that the trend in health expenditure growth is significantly depending with the country's economic development. In addition, out-of-pocket expenditure is powerfully influenced by a country's capacity to increase general government revenues and social insurance contributions. Knowledge of factors associated to health expenditure might help policy makers to make wise judgments, plan health reforms and allocate resources efficiently. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Windfall of Low Interest Payments and Fiscal Sustainability in the Euro Area: Analysis through Panel Fiscal Reaction Functions

SummaryWe estimate various panel fiscal reaction functions, including those of the main categories of general government revenue and expenditure for 12 Euro area member states over the 1970‐2013 period. We find that in the peripheral countries where sovereign bond yields decreased sharply in the years 1996‐2007, fiscal stance ceased to respond to sovereign debt accumulation. This was due to lack of sufficient adjustment in government current expenditure and direct taxes. In contrast, in the core member states, which did not benefit from yields’ convergence related to the Euro area establishment, responsiveness of fiscal stance to inherited sovereign debt increased during 1996‐2007. This was achieved mainly through pronounced adjustments in government current expenditure. The findings are robust to various changes in modelling approach.

Membership in the Euro Area and Fiscal Sustainability. Analysis Through Panel Fiscal Reaction Functions

We estimate various panel fiscal reaction functions, including those of the main categories of general government revenue and expenditure for 12 Euro area member states over the 1970-2013 period. We find that in the peripheral countries where sovereign bond yields decreased sharply in the years 1996-2007, fiscal stance ceased to respond to sovereign debt accumulation. This was due to lack of sufficient adjustment in government non-investment expenditure and direct taxes. In contrast, in the core member states ,which did not benefit from yields’ convergence related to the Euro area establishment, responsiveness of fiscal stance to sovereign debt increased during 1996-2007. It was achieved mainly through pronounced adjustments in government non-investment expenditure. Our findings are in accordance with predictions of theoretical model by Aguiar et al. (2014) and are robust to various changes in modelling approach.

Grey relational analysis based ranking of Latin American and Caribbean Economies

The countries of Latin America and Caribbean have had a modest performance in terms of economic growth since 2000. In addition, Latin America and the Caribbean has also been characterized as a region with a level of macroeconomic volatility much higher than developed economies. From this point of view, the aim of this study is to evaluate the economic performance of Latin American and Caribbean countries during 2003-2013 periods. 13 countries namely Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Costa Rica, Dominican Republic, Ecuador, Mexico, Panama, Peru, Uruguay, Venezuela with highest GDP hold a position of importance in the Region. Grey Relational Analysis is used for the outranking of countries using macroeconomic indicators including total investment, gross national savings, inflation, average consumer prices, volume of imports of goods and services, volume of exports of goods and services, unemployment rate, general government revenue, general government total expenditure, general government gross debt, current account balance, gross product domestic (constant). Also annual macroeconomic indicators are converted to single data set by using arithmetic mean and weighted arithmetic mean (to be focused on recent years). This combined data was also used for another economic performance evaluation. The results of the empirical analyses show that Mexico and Dominican Republic ranked as first and second. The growth in these countries was robust, lifted by strengthening activity in the United States. In contrast, Argentina, Bolivia and Venezuela were at the bottom. These countries encountered difficulties maintaining sustained growth.

Net fiscal positions of counties in Croatia from 2011 to 2013

The main aim of this study was to determine the net fiscal positions of counties, i.e. the net fiscal positions of all cities and municipalities in the territory of each county. The analysis was carried out for the period from 2011 to 2013. The distribution of general government revenue and expenditure of around HRK 129bn was carried out according to established distribution keys and the net fiscal positions of counties were determined. The results revealed that, out of 21 counties (20 counties and the City of Zagreb), only four recorded positive net fiscal positions. The best average annual net fiscal position was found in the City of Zagreb (HRK 13.7bn), followed by the positions of Istarska County (HRK 795m), Primorsko-goranska County (HRK 731m) and Zagrebacka County (HRK 134m). Other counties recorded negative net fiscal positions, with the weakest (negative) ones identified in Vukovarsko-srijemska County (HRK 1.69bn of annual deficit) and Osjeckobaranjska County (HRK 1.67bn).

Spending Too Much, Taxing Too Little? Parliaments in Fiscal Federalism

In aggregate, general government spending in a democracy always tends to exceed general government revenue. This is because local orders of government typically raise less than they spend, with the difference covered by a block grant. This sets up well-known moral hazards associated with the resultant vertical fiscal imbalance. Various strategies for reducing this moral hazard are discussed, with foci on the possibilities of secession and of finding other ways to apply the Tiebout and marginalism principles.

Determinants of Economic Growth in G20 Countries: A Panel Data Approach

During last 10 years some G20 countries had economic instability. They have short and long term challenges such as unemployment, population ageing, globalization etc. In this study it is aimed to analyze macroeconomic indicators of G20 countries’ economic growth using panel data approach. Static linear panel data models were used for determining the effects of independent macro-economic variables on gross domestic product (GDP) of G20 countries including Argentina, Australia, Brazil, Canada, China, France, Germany, India, Indonesia, Italy, Japan, Mexico, Russia, Saudi Arabia, South Africa, Republic of Korea, Turkey, the United Kingdom and the United States of America. While dependent variable of analyze is gross domestic product (volume), the independent variables are current account balance, general government gross debt, general government revenue, general government total expenditure, gross national savings, inflation (average consumer prices), population, total investment, unemployment rate, volume of exports of goods and services, volume of imports of goods and services. The analysis proposed is based on a panel data (cross sectional time series data) approach. The dataset of this research involves 18 (unemployment rate variable of India was not available on our data set, therefore India was excluded from analysis) of G20 members (cross sectional units). The effects of 11 macroeconomic indicators on gross domestic product volume were examined by using panel data series. The findings of this paper would help G20 countries and investors for creating more effective macroeconomic strategies. For the government side, future rises, falls, and turning points of the macro indicators puts into perspective the effects of government policy created to deal with them. For the investors’ side, future values might increase the possibility of diligent investor in the financial market.

Examining the possible influence of societal violence on governance effectiveness in South Africa

This paper examines the possible influence of violent protests on the effectiveness of governance in South Africa. South Africa continues to experience huge number of labour as well as popular municipal service delivery protests. The popular social view with ensuing protests has often pointed at governance inefficiency as the cause of violent protests. This paper adopts a slightly different view in its analysis of violent protests and instead looks at possible influence of violence as possible instigator of ineffective governance. The paper is conceptually rooted in reviews – combined with simple regression test of possible relationship between violent protest and governance effectiveness. The authors also present an examination of probable relationship between violent protests and governance effectiveness using observation of macro-economic data trends from the World Bank. The findings reveal a probable weakening in governance effectiveness or its perception thereof as a result of violent protests. Amongst others, violent protests produces a psyche of perpetual victimhood that leads to further violence resulting in less value attached to lives, destruction of economic property, increases pollution, production stoppages for goods and services and in turn depletes government revenue generation and frustrates international investors. We postulate that under condition explained above, government effectiveness in managing public resources becomes weakened and may lead to wastage and inefficiency as the resources and revenues employed in controlling violent protests are unplanned and do not often lead to constructive and sustainable public policy. We suggest that this condition therefore may result in reduction in economic growth which in turn perpetuates the same weaknesses that led to society protests and violence

Revenue Generation and the Cashless Policy

The Cashless Nigeria Project initiated under the Lamido Sanusi reform as governor of Central Bank of Nigeria since 2010 has been a trial and error experiment in futility and an economic drain pipe of national resources that has not yielded any notable result. Several revised versions of the policy have been experimented with in the trial and error process, yet none of them yielded any positive results. Some state governments in the country and the federal government have ignorantly expected the Sanusi’s experiments to benefit their financial management for the economy and efficiency of the payment system, to manage government payment systems of all sorts including revenue generation. Rather than achieve any efficiency and cost savings, they have encountered unprecedented failures, in the systemic revenue collection drives, troubles and woes of payment system outcomes, for salaries, contracts etc. Many payments never get to the beneficiaries after three to five months of dispatch. The banking system has also cued behind the Central Bank in the failure dynamics of frustrating the Nigerian banking public by driving them out of the banking halls to be scorched in the hot sun and drenched in the rains in kilometers of cue on the Automated Teller Machines (ATM) that fail the customers more often and send back home frustrated without delivering required services. Point of sales (POS) machines are equally not better options as internet network failures make them perpetually unattractive to both customers and traders or shop owners. The Cashless Nigeria Project as a proposition to better the lot of the Nigeria public is a total failure after three years of comatose and lacklustre implementation process. How can such a project benefit government revenue generation? The Nigeria governments in total betrayal of the banking public and businesses have been part of the conspiracy to further frustrate their banking and financial service delivery, so the need to walk along the isles with Lamido Sanusi in pretence that he is or about to succeed. This is the presentation of this professionally based academic work.

Analyzing Macroeconomic Indicators of Economic Growth Using Panel Data

During last 10 years some EU countries had economic instability. They have short and long term challenges such as unemployment, population ageing, globalization etc. In this study it is aimed to analyze macroeconomic indicators of EU countries’ economic growth using panel data approach. Static and dynamic panel data models were used for determining the effects of independent macro-economic variables on gross domestic product (GDP) of EU member countries including Austria, Belgium, Bulgaria, Cyprus, Czech Republic, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Ireland, Italy, Latvia, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Malta, Netherlands, Poland, Portugal, Romania, Slovakia, Slovenia, Spain, Sweden, United Kingdom; acceding country: Croatia; and candidate countries: Iceland, Montenegro, Serbia, The former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia and Turkey. While dependent variable of analyze is gross domestic product (volume), the independent variables are current account balance, general government gross debt, general government revenue, general government total expenditure, gross national savings, inflation, average consumer prices, population, total investment, unemployment rate, volume of exports of goods and services, volume of imports of goods and services. The analysis proposed is based on a panel data (cross sectional time series data) approach. The dataset of this research involves 33 EU member and EU candidate countries (units). The effects of 12 macroeconomic indicators on gross domestic product volume were examined. The paper also empirically analyzes the negative impacts of global financial crisis (the 2007 U.S. Subprime Financial Crisis) into EU member and candidate countries’ economic growth during the 2002–2012 crisis is, the factors that promote a financial crisis, and the dynamics of a financial crisis. Thus, the effects of macroeconomic parameters are analyzed using panel data series. The findings of this research are especially useful for EU candidate countries such as Iceland, Montenegro, Serbia, The Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia and Turkey for developing convenient economic strategies. Keywords: European Union and Candidate Countries, Financial Crisis, Macro Economic Parameters, Panel Data Analysis, Gross Domestic Product, Economic Growth.

Financing and organisation of Veterinary Services

This paper analyses the different ways of financing official Veterinary Services (VS) and the effects of these choices on the performance of such Services. The links between governance, organisational effectiveness and financing arrangements are seen as particularly important. The paper comments on some of the advantages and disadvantages of financing VS with service fees, as compared to budget transfers from general government revenues. Evidence is presented on the considerable heterogeneity in the size of VS and on the impact of this heterogeneity on organisation and financing. The paper concludes with a stylised case study, which emphasises the importance of collaboration and the division of labour between the official and the private sector of the veterinary profession.

Fiscal Sustainability in the EU: A Panel Data Diagnostic

We assess the sustainability of public finances in the EU15 over the period 1970-2006 using stationarity and cointegration analysis. Specifically, we use panel unit root tests of the first and second generation allowing in some cases for structural breaks. We also apply modern panel cointegration techniques developed by Pedroni (1999, 2004), generalized by Banerjee and Carrion-i-Silvestre (2006) and Westerlund and Edgerton (2007), to a structural long-run equation between general government expenditures and revenues. While estimations point to fiscal sustainability being an issue in some countries, fiscal policy was sustainable both for the EU15 panel set, and within sub-periods (1970-1991 and 1992-2006).

The playing card trade in early modern England*

By the sixteen-eighties over one million packs of playing cards were being produced every year. This article examines the huge growth of the playing card trade during the seventeenth century and the process by which cards came to occupy a significant place in the history of English central government revenue generation. Particular attention is paid to the imposition of stamp duty on cards from 1711 and resulting cases of fraud; consideration is also given to the place of playing cards in wider histories of consumption. The article concludes with a discussion about the relationship between gaming and the playing card trade.

Reform towards National Health Insurance in Malaysia: The equity implications

This paper assesses the potential equity impact of Malaysia's projected reform of its current tax financed system towards National Health Insurance (NHI). The Kakwani's progressivity index was used to assess the equity consequences of the new NHI system (with flat rate NHI scheme) compared to the current tax financed system. It was also used to model a proposed system (with a progressive NHI scheme) that can generate the same amount of funding more equitably. The new NHI system would be less equitable than the current tax financed system, as evident from the reduction of Kakwani's index to 0.168 from 0.217. The new flat rate NHI scheme, if implemented, would reduce the progressivity of the health finance system because it is a less progressive finance source than that of general government revenue. We proposed a system with a progressive NHI scheme that generates the same amount of funding whilst preserving the equity at the Kakwani's progressivity index of 0.213. A NHI system with a progressive NHI scheme is proposed to be implemented to raise health funding whilst preserving the equity in health care financing.

What do we really know about fiscal sustainability in the EU? A panel data diagnostic

We assess the sustainability of public finances in the EU-15 over the period 1970–2006 using stationarity and cointegration analysis. Specifically, we use panel unit root tests of the first and second generation allowing in some cases for structural breaks. We also apply modern panel cointegration techniques developed by Pedroni (Oxf Bull Econ Stat 61(1):653–670, 1999; Econom Theory 20(3):597–625, 2004), generalized by Banerjee and Carrion-i-Silvestre (Cointegration in panel data with breaks and cross-section dependence, European Central Bank, Working Paper 591, 2006) and Westerlund and Edgerton (Econ Lett 97(3):185–190, 2007), to a structural long-run equation between general government expenditures and revenues. While estimations point to fiscal sustainability being an issue in some countries, fiscal policy was sustainable both for the EU-15 panel set, and within sub-periods (1970–1991 and 1992–2006).

Public Finances and Economic Transition

This paper analyzes developments in general government expenditures and revenues for 26 reforming ex-socialist economies (RESEs) over the period 1989-1994. The data indicate that, rather than uniformly converging to a “Western European” norm, RESEs have followed a variety of patterns, depending on how successful they have been in economic reform in general and in tackling the increase in the demand for social protection in particular. The paper conducts an empirical investigation of spending patterns and the sustainability of revenues required to maintain current government spending, and concludes that there are strong indications that the fiscal accounts will remain under pressure in a number of RESEs in the foreseeable future.