General Government Final Consumption Expenditure Research Articles

The application of fractional calculus in economic growth modelling: An approach based on regression analysis

This paper establishes a fractional-order economic growth model to model the gross domestic product (GDP). The fractional-order model consists of a differential equation of integer and fractional orders, where the GDP is a function of several exploratory variables. An empirical application is adopted using Malaysia's GDP data from 1956 to 2018, incorporating exploratory variables such as total population, crude death rate, production of logs, gross fixed capital formation, exports of goods and services, general government final consumption expenditure, private final consumption expenditure, and the impact of investment. Extensive comparisons were carried out to evaluate the modelling performance of the full and reduced fractional-order multiple linear regression models with the benchmark models, namely full and reduced integer-order multiple linear regression models. Results indicate that the reduced fractional-order model with six exploratory variables, excluding the crude death rate and production of logs, predominates other models for the in-sample model fitting based on the Akaike information criterion, coefficient of determination and other criteria. Furthermore, the fractional-order model offers the best-of-sample forecasts evaluated based on the root mean square forecast error and mean absolute forecast error. The application of the Diebold–Mariano test also serves to confirm the superior performance of the suggested fractional-order model, revealing a significant difference in forecasting ability between the fractional-order and integer-order models.

Financial Inclusion and Financial Development Determine Human Development in Selected Asian Countries

The research highlights the crucial role of accessible financial services and robust financial systems in enhancing human development outcomes, offering valuable insights for policy-makers aiming to foster inclusive economic growth. This research makes an effort to highlight that financial inclusion and financial development with other major factors determine human development in some selected Asian economies. The authors make use of panel data from 8 Asian nations for the year 2005 to 2018. The dependent variable is the human development index. However, financial inclusion, financial development, urban population, and general government final consumption expenditure are taken as explanatory factors in this analysis. Fixed effect results show that financial inclusion with financial development, urban population, and general government final consumption expenditures have enhanced the human development of Asian countries. The study findings recommend for maximum financial approach and financial amenities in improving the human development of nations. There is a dire need for more improved quality of education for high living standards and development.

Determinants of digital technology development in sub-Saharan African countries: evidence from panel data analysis

The primary objective of this research is to explore the elements that shape the progression of digital technology in Sub-Saharan African nations. The study employs data obtained from 16 countries, covering the period between 2000 and 2020. Employing fixed effect panel regression analysis, our research indicates that various non-technological factors significantly impact digital technology development in the region. The results highlight that variables including general government final consumption expenditure, inflation rate, employment growth rate, financial development, ease of doing business index, logistics performance index, international migration, access to electricity, and access to safe drinking water have a positive impact on the development of digital technology. Conversely, international trade is identified as a negative influence, primarily due to insufficient infrastructural development. These findings underscore the significance of non-technological elements, encompassing aspects like globalization, economic conditions, favorable digital ecosystems, and the fulfillment of basic human needs, in shaping the landscape of digital technology in the region. The study, while acknowledging limitations in terms of selected indicators, years, and countries, emphasizes the need for broader investigations in future research. Practically, the study suggests that governments in the region should prioritize addressing these non-technological factors to fully leverage the potential of digital technology development. The originality and value of this research lies in its exploration of non-technological determinants, shedding light on their pivotal role in shaping the digital technology landscape in sub-Saharan Africa.

An emprical study to investigate the size of non-governmental organizations in OECD countries

This study aimed to analyze the factors affecting the size of non-governmental organizations (NGOs) from a multinational perspective. Empirical analyses were conducted through econometric modeling, and the data of the 17 countries from 2003 to 2019 were used. The data was obtained from the World Bank and OECD database. We used advanced panel data estimation techniques (CUP-FM and CUP-BC) to obtain long-run coefficients. GDP per capita, general government final consumption expenditure, adult education at tertiary level, and Gini index growth declined grants by private agencies and NGOs? contribution to GDP (GinGDP) initially but after a threshold level, GinGDP increased with growth at later stages of these variables. Urban population growth, employment, and foreign population have reducing effect on the size of NGOs. The size of NGOs has bidirectional causality relationship between GDP per capita, adult population at tertiary education level, employment to population ratio, and Gini index; and unidirectional causality between urban population growth, general government final consumption expenditure, and foreign population.

Mineral rents, natural resources depletion, and ecological footprint nexus in high emitting countries: Panel GLM analysis

Natural resource depletion is a serious problem facing many countries today. As minerals and other natural resources are extracted from the ground, they are not replaced, leading to biodiversity loss and environmental degradation. The problem of natural resource depletion is compounded by the fact that, in many cases, mineral rents are not used to help replenish the resources being taken out of the ground. This study examines the impact of mineral rents and natural resources depletion on the ecological footprint in the high emitting countries from 1973 to 2019, using general government final consumption expenditure and international trade as moderating variables. Mineral rent and international trade are negatively associated with the ecological footprint. In contrast, general government final consumption expenditure and natural resource depletion are positively associated with an ecological footprint in the top emitting countries. Government expenditure and natural resource depletion deteriorate the environment, while mineral rents and exports of goods and services improve the environment. By investing in green technologies, the highest-emitting countries can reduce their ecological footprint and increase sustainability. In conclusion, the policy implications for mineral rents are clear – reducing the ecological footprint of the highest-emitting countries. By levying mineral rents, governments can ensure that companies pay their fair share for the resources they extract and raise revenue to fund environmental protection and renewable energy projects. This will help to reduce emissions and improve air quality, making the highest-emitting countries more sustainable in the long term.

The Impact of Inflation on Financial Sector Performance: Evidence. From. Western Balkan Countries

Abstract This research paper aims to investigate. the impact of inflation. on financial sector performance in Western. Balkan. countries. The topic was chosen considering the financial sector’s fundamental role and its. impact on sustainable economic growth. This impact is measured through the effect that macroeconomic determinants of financial. performance such. as inflation, GDP. growth, general government final consumption expenditure, trade, and the lending interest rate have on credit to private sector as a share of GDP and broad definition of money as a ratio of GDP, which were used to proxy financial sector development. The data are provided by the World Bank as well as the Central. Banks. of the respective countries, for the period 2002–2021. The research methodology consists of different panel regression models such as OLS, OLS robust, Fixed effects, Random effects, and Generalized method of moments (GMM). Findings indicate that domestic credit to the private sector and inflation are positively correlated, whereas broad money and inflation are negatively correlated.

THE IMPACT OF ECONOMIC TRENDS ON BANK PROFITABILITY – THE CASE OF SERBIA AND CROATIA

This paper analyses the direction and intensity of the impact of economic trends on the profitability of banks in Serbia and Croatia in the period between the years 2006 and 2021. This paper aims to determine which indicators of economic trends have the most substantial impact on the profitability of banks in the selected countries. As key indicators of economic trends, GDP per capita, the GDP growth rate, inflation rate, real interest rate, broad money growth, general government final consumption expenditure, current account balance, gross savings, trade, and unemployment are selected as independent variables. At the same time, bank profitability was measured with bank return on equity, in percentages (ROE), and bank return on assets, in percentages (ROA) – two indicators which represent the dependent variables selected for this research. Descriptive analysis, mean difference, correlation, and univariate and multivariate regression were used in the research. Research results show that changes in real interest rates and unemployment have a significant impact on the profitability of banks in both of the selected countries, while changes in GDP per capita growth have a statistically significant effect only in Serbia, and general government final consumption expenditure has a statistically significant impact only in Croatia. The influence of other indicators of economic trends is not statistically significant.

Mineral resources depletion, environmental degradation, and exploitation of natural resources: COVID-19 aftereffects

Mineral resources are essential to our everyday lives but are finite and can be depleted if not managed responsibly. Unfortunately, many natural resources have been exploited and depleted due to unsustainable mining practices and over-consumption. This has led to environmental degradation in many parts of the world, with deforestation, air and water pollution, and soil erosion as expected consequences. This paper explores the impacts of mineral resource depletion and environmental degradation on natural resource uses in China from 1971 to 2018, considering the impact of general government final consumption expenditure from the perspective of COVID-19 aftereffects. Mineral resource depletion is negatively associated with natural resource rents in China. Environmental degradation and economic growth increase natural resource rents, depicting that as resources become scarcer, the rents associated with natural resources also increase. Governments must ensure that regulations are in place to protect the environment, invest in renewable energy sources, and support businesses transitioning from resource-intensive production. These policies will help ensure the environment is protected and resources are used responsibly and sustainably. Research limitations and future directions are discussed.

The Impact of Corruption on Economic Growth in Malaysia

The impact of corruption on economic growth has been the subject of theoretical debate among economists, with some arguing that corruption hinders growth and development. In contrast, others suggest that it can positively affect the development process. As such, the effects of corruption on economic growth remain inconclusive. This study examines corruption's impact on economic growth, as measured by real GDP per capita (constant 2015 US$) in Malaysia. The study utilized the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) method to investigate the relationship between corruption and economic growth in Malaysia. The data used in the analysis were obtained from the World Bank and International Country Risk Guide data repository and covered the period of 1992-2021 annually. The Corruption Index was used to measure corruption. At the same time, other variables included economic growth (GDP), Gross Capital Formation (GCF), General Government Final Consumption Expenditure (GE), Individuals Using the Internet (INT), Labor Force (LF), and School Enrollment (SE) in Malaysia. The study's primary results are as follows: (1) corruption and economic growth in Malaysia have a long run relationship when considering the measures of GCF, GE, INT, LF, and SE in the model; (2) when the measures of GCF, GE, INT, LF, and SE were included interchangeably and combined in the model, corruption had a positive and significant impact on economic growth in Malaysia; (3) corruption and economic growth in Malaysia have a significant short-run relationship when considering the measures of GCF, GE, INT, LF, and SE in the model. The study's limitation relates to the data used, as alternative corruption measures beyond the corruption index could yield different outcomes. The study's distinctive contribution is exploring the impact and relationship between corruption and economic growth, specifically in Malaysia.

Financial Liberalization, Institutions and Environmental Quality in GCC Countries

This paper examines the impact of financial liberalization and institutional factors on the environmental quality in GCC countries, specifically focusing on CO2 emissions. The study employs a panel ARDL model to analyze the link between these variables and environmental quality using data from a pooled mean group of GCC countries spanning the years 1984 to 2021. The study reveals several key findings. Firstly, it establishes a positive association between CO2 emission and democratic accountability. Secondly, corruption is found to hurt environmental quality. Additionally, the research indicates that ethnic conflicts contribute to a rise in CO2 emissions. Moreover, government stability is negatively linked with CO2 discharge. In GCC countries, the results demonstrate a negative connection between high domestic credit granted to the private sector and CO2 release. Furthermore, the study reveals a negative link between CO2 emission and GDP. Foreign direct investment is also shown to have a negative relationship with CO2 emissions, while urbanization and general government final consumption expenditure exhibit a positive relationship with CO2 emissions based on the findings of this research.

Environmental implication of energy policies and private and public subsidies on infant mortality rate: a sustainable development study of India.

India has remarkably achieved some level of decline in infant mortality rate and increase in aged person through increase in life expectancy due to improvement on its health care sector but still remain amongst the countries with the highest rate of infant mortality within the Asian countries. Literature on environmental implication remains scarce, and for this we utilised India's data from 1975 to 2020 to research on this topic. Relevant scientific methods (residual Augmented Least Squares - RALS, Engle and Granger - EG, and its newly augmented version - RALS-EG) are adopted in this study. Further, to estimate the long-run elasticities of the regressors, the symmetric analyses, i.e., dynamic ordinary least squares (DOLS) and Engle and Granger causality test techniques, are employed. Findings according to DOLS revealed that renewable energy sources and social (GDP per capita) and public subsidies (general government final consumption expenditure) have lessening effect on infant mortality in India, whilst the private subsidies (gross capital formation), fossil fuels, and carbon dioxide cause an increase in infant mortality in India. This exposes renewable energy source as a mitigating factor in Indian environmental degradation which as well lessen the infant mortality level in India; hence, policy is suggested to be framed on improving renewable energy and health sectors. The graphical presentation of the abstract is done with the diagram below. The graph shows the interactions amongst the selected variables in this study. The impacts of the explanatory variables on the dependent variable are shown with different colours showing positive (green) and negative (red) impacts.

Estimating the real exchange rate misalignment of the Algerian dinar during the period (1980-2019) : an empirical study (Arabic)

The aim of this study is to estimate the long-run Equilibrium Real Exchange Rate (ERER) and to assess the degree of misalignment of the Algerian Dinar for the period (1980-2019) using ARDL approach. Considering that the equilibrium exchange rate of the Algerian dinar is determined by a set of fundamentals of the national economy, the study reached the following main results: In the long run, there are positive relationships between the real effective exchange rate and the differential productivity, real oil price and net capital flows. Whereas, there are inverse relationships between the dependent variable and each of the trade openness, General government final consumption expenditure (% of GDP). The second result is that the REER registered a number of deviations from its equilibrium level, that vary between overvaluation and undervaluation. The third result is that the exchange rate cannot be the only adjustment variable, given the extent of macroeconomic imbalances (internal and external). Parallel efforts at fiscal consolidation and deep structural reforms to diversify the economy and accelerate growth are also essential.

Identification of determinants of corruption in government: a mar-spline approach

Purpose.Development of a scientific and methodological approach to the identification of the most impactful determinants on corruption using multivariate adaptive regression splines. Methodology. Methodological tools of the research methods are comparison, grouping, bibliometric analysis, and multivariate adaptive regression splines in the form of piecewise linear functions. Findings. Systematization of the literary sources and approaches for factors influencing corruption indicates that most empirical studies are based on using panel data. Panel data allows you to insert general patterns, but does not consider the patterns of the national economy. For the study on corruption in Ukraine, 15 influencing factors were selected, characterizing the institutional, economic and social environment. Based on the constructed MAR Spline models, three regression equations were obtained that describe the linear dependence of the level of corruption in governance on the selected factors. The paper found that the relevant factors influencing corruption in Ukraine are: tax burden, general government final consumption expenditure, average monthly wage in Governance and rule of law. Originality.The proposed approach makes it possible to determine the dynamics of the degree of factor influence on the level of corruption in the country. The paper defines the threshold values of statistically significant indicators at which the maximum degree of correlation with the corruption perception index is achieved. Practical value.The regularities between the level of corruption and economic, institutional and social factors revealed by the research results can be used in the development of tools to fight corruption in Ukraine. The formation of an effective anti-corruption system will strengthen financial stability in the country and increase the level of public trust in society.

The Impact of General Government Final Consumption Expenditure- Economics Growth nexus for the Gambia

Traditional Keynesian macroeconomic approaches states that extraordinary levels of government consumption expenditure increase employment levels of the population, productivity and investment levels through investment multiplier effects on aggregate demand. Thus, the spending of the government increases also raises aggregate demand to the right, causing output to increase depending on the magnitude and efficiency of expenditure multipliers on growth. The focus of this paper is to examining the impact of general government final consumption expenditure- economic growth nexus for the Gambia for the periods from 1977 to 2017. The econometrics techniques used is Ordinary Least Square (OLS) method to explore the impacts either negative or positive effects of government consumption final expenditure on growth in the Gambia for the periods under study Data for the study were obtained from World Bank(WDI). The findings were interpreted based on a 5 percent significance level of alpha. The multiple regression result revealed that government consumption was not a significant impact on the economic growth of the Gambia. This opposes the traditional Keynesian macroeconomic theory. This study suggested that Capital and recurrent expenditures on economic facilities should be directed mainly to productive economics. This will stimulate activities in the economic sectors like agriculture, industry and services, that will perhaps contrary the undesirable effect of government expenditure on economic growth especially in the Gambia in which the time series study was based.

Natural resources: A curse on welfare?

Nowadays, the evaluation and monitoring of social welfare in all countries, particularly in developing countries, has become one of the most important and inevitable problems for governments. Since most developing countries have abundant natural resources, despite the common perception, these resources not only have not increased social welfare in these countries, but they also resulted in an unusual decrease in the social welfare. In this study, we intend to use panel quantile regression to investigate the impact of the dependence on natural resources and Institutional quality index on social welfare in fuel exporting developing countries during the period 2007–2020. The results showed that the effect of the dependence on natural resources on welfare is negative and significant. Also, it indicates that the phenomenon of the welfare curse is prevalent in fuel exporting developing countries. In addition, the effect of Institutional quality index on the welfare of fuel exporting developing countries is positive and significant. According to the results, the effect of other control variables like human development index, uemployment, public service index, and general government final consumption expenditure on welfare is negative and significant. The results of our research are very useful for policymakers. According to the results, we suggest that policymakers enact laws to prevent corruption. Also, take steps in the direction of transferring from the export of natural resources to the export of industrial products.

An Empirical Analysis on the Determinants of the Philippine Economic Growth: 1987-2018

The impending unemployment situation in the Philippines is dreadful to the economic development. The study aims to formulate an econometric model for the determinants of economic development. This paper may be a new approach in understanding the inter-dependencies between the economic forces, but using a local region does prove that there are new insights regarding the economic factors in the Philippines. The results show that an increase/decrease in Labor Force Participation Rate (female) and General Government Final Consumption Expenditure increases/decreases in Unemployment Rate Among Female approximately. In contrast, an increase in the Inflation Rate decreased in Unemployment Rate Among females. The analysis uses E-views version 11 and 12. The results show a significant relationship between Unemployment Rate Among females and Labor Force Participation Rate (female), Inflation Rate, and General Government Final Consumption Expenditure using Multiple Linear Regression Analysis and Autocorrelation. Moreover, Johansen Cointegration Test proves a long-run relationship among the variables. The authors suggest that the analysis is imperative to help the economy maintain a high standard level and can be used by the government to implement policies that specifically highlight the role of women in economic growth.

Role of alternative and nuclear energy in stimulating environmental sustainability: impact of government expenditures.

Environmental sustainability isfundamental to the survival of our planet and ourselves, as polluted air, water, and land severely affect communities and society to thrive and damage the quality of life. This study examined the role of alternative and nuclear energy in stimulating the environment sustainably while mediating the function of government expenditure and economic growth in the top three highest CO2 emitter countries. We apply advanced econometric methodologies for empirical analysis from 1981 to 2016 and find long-run relationships among the variables that suggest general government final consumption expenditure and economic growth are positively related to CO2 emissions. Moreover, alternative and nuclear energy and the square root of economic growth (EKC) improve environmental sustainability. The general government's final consumption expenditure and economic growth deteriorate environmental sustainability. Policymakers in the top three highest CO2 emitter countries are encouraged to adopt a comprehensive approach to access the compatibility of alternative and nuclear energy sources, changing the source of uranium from mined ore to seawater, encourage, tide, and include macroeconomic stabilization, public and private fiscal position goals with the environmental sustainability policies. Moreover, governments are suggested to incorporate green fiscal policies to address the global environmental challenges and promote a green economy. Aligning government expenditures with environmental goals, reflecting externalities in prices, broader fiscal reform by making fiscal space for clean and green investment is highly encouraged to achieve the sustainable development goals' target. Study limitations and directions for future research in the area are presented.

Dugoročni efekti odabranih ekonomskih varijabli na javni dug Srbije

Public debt control is one of the most important challenges which global economies face. The aim of this paper is to examine the long-term relationship between public debt and the selected economic variables in the Republic of Serbia by using the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) approach. The empirical analysis conducted on the basis of the annual data in the period from 2000 to 2019 includes, apart from the debt-toGDP ratio as the dependent variable, 6 selected economic indicators, used in the model as independent variables. The obtained results indicate that economic growth and gross fixed capital formation have a statistically significant negative long-term effect on the public debt, while general government final consumption expenditure (% of GDP) and trade openness (% of GDP) show a statistically significant positive long-term effect on the public debt. The estimated long-run coefficients related to inflation and unemployment have the expected sign, but they are statistically insignificant. The results of the study can be important to policy makers when defining the activities aimed at establishing public debt stability and achieving long-term sustainable economic results.

Evaluating the efficiency of fiscal responses to COVID-19 pandemic in the OECD countries: a two-stage data envelopment analysis approach

This study examines the relative technical efficiency (TE) of the fiscal stimulus packages introduced by the governments of 38 OECD countries in response to COVID-19 pandemic, using a two-stage data envelopment analysis (DEA) approach. The DEA results indicate that OECD countries are inefficient as they have the potential to save around 54.8% of their fiscal packages while maintaining the same performance in terms of economic growth and unemployment. Costa Rica, Greece, Ireland, Italy, Mexico, and Turkey are found to be fully efficient whereas Canada, Germany, Japan, the USA, and the UK are found to be the least efficient. The Tobit findings indicate that belonging to the EU, public expenditure on education, and population density, are positively correlated to the TE scores. In contrary, general government final consumption expenditure, size of fiscal stimulus packages, and COVID-19 infections rate tend to affect efficiency negatively.

Domestic demand, export and economic growth in Sri Lanka

Export and domestic demands are both important for economic growth and economic growth has a significant impact on export and domestic demand. The main objective of the study is to identify the impact of domestic demand and export on economic growth in Sri Lanka during the period from 1977-2019. To accomplish the objective, the Johansen co-integrated test is used to investigate the long-run relationship and the Granger causality test is used to identify the direction of flow between variables. Household final consumption, Government final consumption and Gross fixed capital formation variables were used as the domestic demand variables; the value of exports is treated as export demand for national goods and services and economic growth proxied by gross domestic product. The result of Johansen co-integration test indicated the existence of the long run relationship among the variables. The results of Error correction model indicated that household final consumption, gross fixed capital formation and export have positive and statistically significant impact on economic growth in the long-run. Moreover, no independent variable in the model affected gross domestic product in the short-run. However, general government final consumption expenditure has a negative impact on economic growth in the long- run. The Granger causality test result shows a dynamic relationship between domestic demand and economic growth and between export and economic growth in Sri Lanka.