Estimating the real exchange rate misalignment of the Algerian dinar during the period (1980-2019) : an empirical study (Arabic)

Abstract

The aim of this study is to estimate the long-run Equilibrium Real Exchange Rate (ERER) and to assess the degree of misalignment of the Algerian Dinar for the period (1980-2019) using ARDL approach. Considering that the equilibrium exchange rate of the Algerian dinar is determined by a set of fundamentals of the national economy, the study reached the following main results: In the long run, there are positive relationships between the real effective exchange rate and the differential productivity, real oil price and net capital flows. Whereas, there are inverse relationships between the dependent variable and each of the trade openness, General government final consumption expenditure (% of GDP). The second result is that the REER registered a number of deviations from its equilibrium level, that vary between overvaluation and undervaluation. The third result is that the exchange rate cannot be the only adjustment variable, given the extent of macroeconomic imbalances (internal and external). Parallel efforts at fiscal consolidation and deep structural reforms to diversify the economy and accelerate growth are also essential.