Atmospheric General Circulation Model Research Articles

Present Climate and Future Changes in the Annual Cycle of TC Activity in the WNP Investigated by HighResMIP GCMs

Abstract Atmospheric general circulation models (AGCMs) and coupled general circulation models (CGCMs) in the High Resolution Model Intercomparison Project (HighResMIP) were evaluated on their ability to simulate tropical cyclone (TC) activity in the western North Pacific (WNP) over its annual cycle. Specifically, we examined these models’ ability to simulate the south–north migration of the mean TC genesis location. The results revealed that both types of models realistically captured TC numbers and the south–north migration of TC genesis locations associated with the meridional migration of the WNP subtropical high ridge in response to the annual cycle. However, TC numbers decreased less rapidly in the AGCMs than in both the CGCMs and observed data during the monsoon retreat period (after September). This bias was probably attributed to a low-tropospheric cyclonic anomaly over the Philippine Sea in response to La Niña–like sea surface temperature (SST) differences between the AGCMs and the CGCMs. Because of these differences, the TC genesis frequency in the AGCMs over the Philippine Sea was overestimated. The cyclonic anomaly occurred when the northeasterly trade wind arose and was maintained through wind–evaporation–SST feedback. In future climate (2021–50), the main changes occurred during the monsoon retreat period. A more rapid decrease in TC numbers shown in AGCMs was likely attributed to the decrease (increase) of low-level vorticity (vertical wind shear) modulated by enhanced WNP subtropical high and subsidence anomalies. Conversely, a cyclonic circulation and ascending anomalies projected by CGCMs were identified off-equator, which favored TC genesis location shifting northward. Significance Statement Model performance and future changes in the annual cycle of tropical cyclone (TC) activity in the western North Pacific are investigated. We found that high-resolution uncoupled and coupled models realistically captured the TC numbers and meridional migration of TC genesis locations associated with the meridional migration of subtropical high ridge. However, TC numbers decreased more gradually in the uncoupled models than in the coupled models after September. This lower skill may stem from differences between the uncoupled and coupled models in simulating a cyclonic anomaly over the Philippine Sea in response to the La Niña–like sea surface temperature difference. In future climate (2021–50), TC numbers are significantly projected to decrease more rapidly during the monsoon retreat period in uncoupled models.

Remote Forcing for a Circulation Pattern Favorable to Surface Melt over the Ross Ice Shelf

Abstract The Ross Ice Shelf (RIS) experiences surface melt events in summer, which could accelerate ice loss and destabilize the ice sheet in a warming world. This study links the interannual variability of RIS surface melt to the northerly wind anomaly over the Ross Sea sector, which is established in association with the quasigeostrophic barotropic Rossby wave trains from the tropical Pacific and subtropical Australia toward West Antarctica. Atmospheric general circulation model experiments suggest that these Rossby wave trains are regulated by El Niño–related sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in the tropical central–eastern Pacific and atmospheric heating anomalies over western Australia. El Niño provides an important forcing of the atmospheric circulation anomalies over the Ross Sea via inducing a Rossby wave train, and most surface melt events over the RIS happen during El Niño years. In addition, the anomalous atmospheric heating over western Australia, which is independent of El Niño, is another important forcing that triggers a Rossby wave train extending from subtropical Australia to the Ross Sea. The northerly flow toward the Ross Sea induces strong poleward moisture and heat transport, which further contributes to surface melt over the RIS. Significance Statement During austral summer, surface melt occurs over the Ross Ice Shelf, accelerates ice loss, and poses ice-sheet destabilization risks in a warming world. The northerly wind anomaly over the Ross sector provides strong poleward heat and moisture transport and is favorable for the surface melt. This wind anomaly is influenced by two remote forcings, El Niño and heating anomaly over western Australia, through generating Rossby wave trains from the tropics and subtropical Australia. This study reveals a previously unexplored relationship that atmospheric heating over western Australia influences large-scale circulation, contributing to surface melt.

Sensitivity of the Northern Hemisphere warming trend to snowpack variability

Abstract A marked decrease in land surface snow cover within the Northern Hemisphere under global warming will warm the atmosphere near the land surface. However, minimal information exists regarding the contribution of snowpack variation to inter-annual surface air temperature variability. The current study investigates the effects caused by snow water equivalent (SWE) change on surface air temperature (SAT). To this end, a SWE pacemaker experiment of AMIP-type is undertaken for the period 1901-2010, during which the MIROC6 atmospheric general circulation model’s SWE is continuously nudged towards SWE derived from an LMIP-type experiment. Compared to a reference MIROC6 simulation without SWE nudging, the spatial correlation of 1980-2010 inter-annual SWE trends in our experiment with those in GlobSnow observation data increased by 0.31 over the Northern Hemisphere. Similarly, the linear correlation of inter-annual SAT with reanalysis data is greater by 0.04, 0.04, 0.08, and 0.07 for autumn, winter, spring, and summer over the region from the reference experiment, respectively. It is shown that due to this SWE nudging, modeled inter-annual SAT change in the Northern Hemisphere becomes more accurate. Through a surface energy budget analysis, changes in SAT are attributed to changes in surface albedo, soil evaporation, and soil temperature. Areas of greater contribution of SWE variability to SAT variability appear to shift from south to north areas as snow melts. These results highlight surface albedo, snow hydrological, and land heat storage effects through which the SWE inter-annual trend on the land surface significantly controls atmospheric air temperature variability near the land surface.

Diagnosing drivers of tropical precipitation biases in coupled climate model simulations

AbstractIn this study, we analyse the large-scale biases in tropical precipitation climatology of two different types of coupled ocean–atmosphere general circulation models (GCMs): the coupled model intercomparison project (CMIP) models and ICON-Sapphire, a global storm-resolving model. We employ the simple globally resolved energy balance (GREB) diagnostic precipitation model to evaluate four drivers of the precipitation biases in the simulations: surface specific humidity, surface relative humidity, tropospheric mean and variability in the vertical motion. The tropical precipitation biases in the CMIP and ICON-Sapphire simulations are surprisingly similar in their patterns and also in the elements forcing them. The results of our analysis using the GREB model show that the precipitation biases result from both biases in the sensitivity to the four forcing fields and biases in the simulated forcing fields themselves. The most significant bias for both, the CMIP and ICON-Sapphire simulations, is a too high sensitivity to the mean vertical circulation ($${\omega }_{\text{mean}}$$ ω mean ) and bias in the $${\omega }_{\text{mean}}$$ ω mean climatology itself. This also holds for specific long-standing biases, such as the double intertropical convergence zone problem. Meanwhile, biases in the climatology of specific and relative humidity play only a minor role but contribute to an overall small increase in precipitation in CMIP models that may be related to the “drizzling” bias. These results can give insights to the modelling community regarding model development, and illustrate that the GREB diagnostic precipitation model applied is a good tool for evaluating the drivers of large-scale tropical precipitation.

Origin of ice in the Medusae Fossae Formation, equatorial Mars

We assess and test the recent radar-sounding findings of huge, kms-thick quantities of ice along the equatorial region of Mars covered by a thick protective cap (the Medusae Fossae Formation (MFF); Watters et al., 2024), using 1) atmospheric general circulation models (GCMs), 2) glacial ice accumulation and flow models, and 3) models for ice ablation-induced accumulation residues. Our results indicate that under Hesperian-era conditions, Mars at ∼40° spin-axis obliquity is predicted to accumulate snow/ice in excess of a km in less than a few million years in the MFF region, producing cold-based glaciers with basal melting over <7% of the deposit. We find that subsequent ablation of this ice deposit surface in the several billion year-long Amazonian during periods of episodic eolian stripping of MFF protective sublimation residues and dust/tephra deposits, provides a mechanism sufficient to form the thick capping layer. Similar, shorter-duration obliquity excursions during this period may have also contributed additional ice-sublation residue layers, consistent with the complex stratigraphy of the MFF. On the basis of the estimated non-ice component of the MFF ice deposit, we suggest that ablation alone could have formed the cap unit in a minimum of ∼350 million years, but was likely to have been episodic, operating in concert with periods of eolian surface lag removal over a much longer time period. The tripartite subdivision of MFF stratigraphy could indicate major periods of Amazonian obliquity excursions that deposited and removed thinner layers of ice and sublimation residue. The very high abundance of non-esker-like fluvial channels in part of the Lower Member of the MFF, combined with the paucity of ice-sheet basal melting in our analysis, suggests that ablation processes were sometimes dominated by top-down ice heating, melting and fluvial runoff. In summary, our three-part modeling approach supports the new findings, and offers new dimensions for the further analysis of the enigmatic MFF.

An implementation of the particle flow filter in an atmospheric model

Abstract The particle flow filter (PFF) shows promise for fully nonlinear data assimilation (DA) in high dimensional systems. However, its application in atmospheric models has been relatively unexplored. In this study, we develop a new algorithm, PFF-DART, in order to conduct DA for high-dimensional atmospheric models. PFF-DART combines the PFF and the two-step ensemble filtering algorithm in the Data Assimilation Research Testbed (DART), exploiting the highly parallel structure of DART. To evaluate the performance of PFF-DART, we conduct an Observing System Simulation Experiment (OSSE) in a simplified atmospheric general circulation model, and compare the performance of PFF-DART with an existing linear and Gaussian DA method. Using the PFF-DART algorithm, we demonstrate, for the first time, the capability of the PFF to yield stable results in a year-long cycling DA OSSE. Moreover, PFF-DART retains the important ability of the PFF to improve the assimilation of nonlinear and non-Gaussian observations. Finally, we emphasize that PFF-DART is a versatile algorithm that can be integrated with numerous other non-Gaussian DA techniques. This quality makes it a promising method for further investigation within a more sophisticated numerical weather prediction model in the future.

Warming Tropical Indian Ocean Wets the Tibetan Plateau

AbstractAccurate detection and attribution of past climate change are crucial for projecting future climate change and formulating proper policies. In this study, we show that the warming of the tropical Indian Ocean contributes to the observed wetting trend in the Tibetan plateau. The warming tropical Indian Ocean can lead to more precipitation around the Arabian Sea. The associated diabatic heating triggers the cyclonic atmospheric response in the lower troposphere over the Arabian Sea and eastern Africa. It also causes the enhancement and westward extension of the western North Pacific subtropical high. The in‐between airflow transports more moisture northward to the plateau, leading to the increased precipitation over the plateau. These large‐scale circulation patterns can be detected from the long‐term trends based on the observations and the large‐ensemble historical simulations. They can also be simulated by an atmospheric general circulation model forced by the observed warming merely in the tropical Indian Ocean.

The temperature feedback in the intraseasonal Warm Arctic–Cold North America pattern

The feedback mechanism between air temperature (Ta) and skin temperature (Ts) and its origin is disclosed for the intraseasonal warm Arctic-cold North America pattern based on reanalysis data and simulations from an atmospheric global climate model. The change in Ta is caused by an anomalous anticyclonic circulation over Alaska and the resultant meridional temperature advection. It changes Ts through downward longwave radiation (DLWR), and the altered Ts further feedback to Ta via upward longwave radiation. While these processes decay the initial changes in Ta, they are important for the feedback between Ta and Ts. Compared with clouds, atmospheric moisture and the associated clear-sky DLWR dominate the changes in DLWR. Moisture thus plays a crucial role in the strength of the Ts-Ta feedback.

SpeedyWeather.jl: Reinventing atmospheric general circulation models towards interactivity and extensibility

SpeedyWeather.jl: Reinventing atmospheric general circulation models towards interactivity and extensibility

Nonlinear Response of Summertime Synoptic-Scale Disturbance Intensity over the Tropical Western North Pacific to ENSO Amplitude

Abstract El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) exhibits nonlinearity in its amplitude and impacts. This study investigates the dependence of summertime synoptic-scale disturbance (SSD) intensity over the tropical western North Pacific (TWNP) on the ENSO amplitude. A tendency of nonlinearity exists in the observed response of the TWNP SSD intensity to the amplitude of tropical central-eastern Pacific (CEP) sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in boreal summer. Numerical experiments are conducted with an atmospheric general circulation model with linearly varying tropical CEP SST anomalies imposed to illustrate the nonlinearity exclusively induced by changes in the ENSO amplitude. A linear increase in the amplitude of El Niño–like SST anomalies results in a nonlinear enhancement of SSD intensity over the TWNP, manifested as the increase in SSD intensity at a rate larger than expected by linear response with an eastward shift. This is attributed to the nonlinear intensification of anomalous ascent over the TWNP induced by tropical convection response to positive tropical CEP SST anomalies and the nonlinear effect of anomalous convection on the synoptic-scale activity. In contrast, as La Niña–like SST anomalies increase linearly, the SSD intensity over the TWNP decreases at a rate slower than expected from a linear response and even reaches saturation with little longitudinal shift. Due to the thermodynamic control on the occurrence of deep convection in the tropics, enhanced negative SST anomalies do not induce additional changes in anomalous descent over the tropical CEP. Thus, the TWNP SSD intensity no longer decreases with further increase in tropical CEP cold SST anomalies. Significance Statement Synoptic-scale disturbances (SSDs) over the tropical western North Pacific (TWNP) play an important role in weather and climate over East and Southeast Asia. Impacts of those SSDs are contingent on their intensity. El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) has substantial impacts on weather and climate worldwide, including the SSDs over the TWNP. ENSO displays a diversity in amplitude, spatial pattern, and temporal evolution. The present study investigates the response of the TWNP SSD intensity to varying ENSO amplitude during boreal summer and reveals a distinctive nonlinear response of the TWNP SSD intensity to the amplitude of El Niño and La Niña, which has important implication for understanding the impacts of ENSO on climate over the TWNP and Asia.

Equatorial Western–Central Pacific SST Responsible for the North Pacific Oscillation–ENSO Sequence

Abstract El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), the dominant mode of interannual variability in the tropical Pacific, is well known to affect the extratropical climate via atmospheric teleconnections. Extratropical atmospheric variability may in turn influence the occurrence of ENSO events. The winter North Pacific Oscillation (NPO), as the secondary dominant mode of atmospheric variability over the North Pacific, has been recognized as a potential precursor for ENSO development. This study demonstrates that the preexisting winter NPO signal is primarily excited by sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in the equatorial western–central Pacific. During ENSO years with a preceding winter NPO signal, which accounts for approximately 60% of ENSO events observed in 1979–2021, significant SST anomalies emerge in the equatorial western–central Pacific in the preceding autumn and winter. The concurrent presence of local convection anomalies can act as a catalyst for NPO-like atmospheric circulation anomalies. In contrast, during other ENSO years, significant SST anomalies are not observed in the equatorial western–central Pacific during the preceding winter, and correspondingly, the NPO signal is absent. Ensemble simulations using an atmospheric general circulation model driven by observed SST anomalies in the tropical western–central Pacific can well reproduce the interannual variability of observed NPO. Therefore, an alternative explanation for the observed NPO–ENSO relationship is that the preceding winter NPO is a companion to ENSO development, driven by the precursory SST signal in the equatorial western–central Pacific. Our results suggest that the lagged relationship between ENSO and the NPO involves a tropical–extratropical two-way coupling rather than a purely stochastic forcing of the extratropical atmosphere on ENSO.

Future projection of tropical cyclone genesis in the Western North pacific using high-resolution GCMs and genesis potential indices

The study employed high-resolution atmospheric general circulation models (AGCM) to simulate tropical cyclones (TCs) and evaluated two TC genesis potential indices in reflecting projected TC changes in the western North Pacific (WNP) under a warming scenario. Both indices accurately represented the seasonal variation of TC genesis frequency (TCGF) and its spatial distribution in historical simulations and observation data. The widely-used TC genesis potential index (χGPI) projected a significant increase in TCGF in response to a warmer ocean surface. However, this projection conflicted with the significant reduction in the model projection due to the dominant control of SST on the χGPI. Higher SST in remote ocean basins often over dominated the destabilization effect of in-situ warmer SST and caused more stable atmospheric conditions in the WNP, resulting in fewer TC occurrences. By contrast, the revised index (χMqGPI), which considers gross moisture condensation, projected a TCGF decrease that more accurately reflected the decreasing trend of TCGF in the warming simulations by AGCM, although the degree of reduction was smaller than that derived directly from TC detection scheme. The results suggest the plausibility of using χMqGPI, based on the results of multimodel coarse-resolution CMIP6 climate models, to project future changes in TCGF in the WNP.

Dominant contribution of atmospheric nonlinearities to ENSO asymmetry and extreme El Niño events

Extreme El Niño events have outsized impacts and strongly contribute to the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) warm/cold phase asymmetries. There is currently no consensus on the respective importance of oceanic and atmospheric nonlinearities for those asymmetries. Here, we use atmospheric and oceanic general circulation models that reproduce ENSO asymmetries well to quantify the atmospheric nonlinearities contribution. The linear and nonlinear components of the wind stress response to Sea Surface Temperature (SST) anomalies are isolated using ensemble atmospheric experiments, and used to force oceanic experiments. The wind stress-SST nonlinearity is dominated by the deep atmospheric convective response to SST. This wind-stress nonlinearity contributes to ~ 40% of the peak amplitude of extreme El Niño events and ~ 55% of the prolonged eastern Pacific warming they generate until the following summer. This large contribution arises because nonlinearities consistently drive equatorial westerly anomalies, while the larger linear component is made less efficient by easterly anomalies in the western Pacific during fall and winter. Overall, wind-stress nonlinearities fully account for the eastern Pacific positive ENSO skewness. Our findings underscore the pivotal role of atmospheric nonlinearities in shaping extreme El Niño events and, more generally, ENSO asymmetry.

Midlatitude Oceanic Fronts Strengthen the Hydrological Cycle Between Cyclones and Anticyclones

AbstractThe Kuroshio‐Oyashio Extension and Gulf Stream oceanic frontal zones are characterized by enhanced activity of synoptic‐scale cyclones and anticyclones and vigorous air‐sea heat and moisture exchange in the cold season. However, the time‐mean air‐sea exchange attributed separately to cyclones and anticyclones has not been assessed. Here we quantify cyclonic and anticyclonic contributions around the frontal zones to surface turbulent heat fluxes, precipitation, and the associated hydrological cycle using atmospheric general circulation model experiments with observed and artificially smoothed sea‐surface temperature gradients. The evaluation reveals that precipitation exceeds evaporation climatologically within cyclonic domains while evaporation dominates within anticyclonic domains. These features as well as the net moisture transport from anticyclonic to cyclonic domains are all enhanced by the sharpness of the frontal zones. Oceanic frontal zones thus climatologically act to strengthen the hydrological cycle. These findings aid our understanding of the relationship between midlatitude air‐sea interactions on synoptic‐ and longer‐time scales.

Fast response of global monsoon area and precipitation to regional carbonaceous aerosols

Monsoon exerts a significant social and economic impact on billions of people around the world. Changes in global monsoon (GM) rainfall under global warming have been well studied; however, the understanding of GM connection with regional aerosol emissions is limited. Using an atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM), we attempt to quantify the response of global monsoon area and precipitation to the removal of carbonaceous aerosols over North America (AM), North Africa (AF), Europe (EU), and Asia (AS). Response to the emission removal, the global average aerosol optical depths (AOD) are reduced by 2.21%, 1.8%, 1.16%, and 3.8% respectively. A southward shift in the GM domain is observed, responding to changes in magnitude and position of the Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone, when carbonaceous aerosols are removed over these regions in the Northern Hemisphere. The percentage departure in the area-averaged GM precipitation is found to be 4-fold in magnitude for the removal of emissions over EU when compared to that of AM and AF. A shrinkage in the GM area is also observed, which is maximum for EU (∼−30%) compared to AM and AF (∼−25%). The change in GM precipitation and area are found to be the least and opposite in nature for AS emissions. This study provides insight into the regional nature of carbonaceous aerosol effects on global precipitation.

Amazon savannization and climate change are projected to increase dry season length and temperature extremes over Brazil

Land use change and atmospheric composition, two drivers of climate change, can interact to affect both local and remote climate regimes. Previous works have considered the effects of greenhouse gas buildup in the atmosphere and the effects of Amazon deforestation in atmospheric general circulation models. In this study, we investigate the impacts of the Brazilian Amazon savannization and global warming in a fully coupled ocean-land-sea ice-atmosphere model simulation. We find that both savannization and global warming individually lengthen the dry season and reduce annual rainfall over large tracts of South America. The combined effects of land use change and global warming resulted in a mean annual rainfall reduction of 44% and a dry season length increase of 69%, when averaged over the Amazon basin, relative to the control run. Modulation of inland moisture transport due to savannization shows the largest signal to explain the rainfall reduction and increase in dry season length over the Amazon and Central-West. The combined effects of savannization and global warming resulted in maximum daily temperature anomalies, reaching values of up to 14 °C above the current climatic conditions over the Amazon. Also, as a consequence of both climate drivers, both soil moisture and surface runoff decrease over most of the country, suggesting cascading negative future impacts on both agriculture production and hydroelectricity generation.

Modeling Natural Tritium in Precipitation and its Dependence on Decadal Solar Activity Variations Using the Atmospheric General Circulation Model MIROC5‐Iso

AbstractModeling tritium content in water presents a meaningful way to evaluate the representation of the water cycle in climate models as it traces fluxes within and between the reservoirs involved in the water cycle (stratosphere, troposphere, and ocean). In this study, we present the implementation of natural tritium in water in the atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) MIROC5‐iso and its simulation for the period 1979–2018. Owing to recently published tritium production calculations, we were able to investigate, for the first time, the influence of natural tritium production related to the 11‐yr solar cycle on tritium in precipitation. MIROC5‐iso correctly simulates continental, latitudinal, and altitude effects on tritium in precipitation. The seasonal tritium content peaks, linked to stratosphere‐troposphere exchanges, are accurately simulated in terms of timing, even though MIROC5‐iso underestimates the amplitude of the changes. Decadal tritium concentration variations in precipitation owing to the 11‐yr solar cycle are well simulated in MIROC5‐iso, in agreement with the observations at Vostok in Antarctica for example, Finally, our simulations revealed that the internal climate variability plays an important role in tritium in polar precipitation. Owing to its influence on the south polar vortex, the Southern Annular Mode enhances the effect of the production component on tritium in East Antarctic precipitation. In Greenland, we found an east‐west contrast in the detection of the 11‐yr solar cycle in tritium in precipitation owing to the influence of the North Atlantic Oscillation on humidity conditions.

Assessment of climate biases in OpenIFS version 43r3 across model horizontal resolutions and time steps

Abstract. We examine the impact of horizontal resolution and model time step on the climate of the OpenIFS version 43r3 atmospheric general circulation model. A series of simulations for the period 1979–2019 are conducted with various horizontal resolutions (i.e. ∼100, ∼50, and ∼25 km) while maintaining the same time step (i.e. 15 min) and using different time steps (i.e. 60, 30, and 15 min) at 100 km horizontal resolution. We find that the surface zonal wind bias is significantly reduced over certain regions such as the Southern Ocean and the Northern Hemisphere mid-latitudes and in tropical and subtropical regions at a high horizontal resolution (i.e. ∼25 km). Similar improvement is evident too when using a coarse-resolution model (∼100 km) with a smaller time step (i.e. 30 and 15 min). We also find improvements in Rossby wave amplitude and phase speed, as well as in weather regime patterns, when a smaller time step or higher horizontal resolution is used. The improvement in the wind bias when using the shorter time step is mostly due to an increase in shallow and mid-level convection that enhances vertical mixing in the lower troposphere. The enhanced mixing allows frictional effects to influence a deeper layer and reduces wind and wind speed throughout the troposphere. However, precipitation biases generally increase with higher horizontal resolutions or smaller time steps, whereas the surface air temperature bias exhibits a small improvement over North America and the eastern Eurasian continent. We argue that the bias improvement in the highest-horizontal-resolution (i.e. ∼25 km) configuration benefits from a combination of both the enhanced horizontal resolution and the shorter time step. In summary, we demonstrate that, by reducing the time step in the coarse-resolution (∼100 km) OpenIFS model, one can alleviate some climate biases at a lower cost than by increasing the horizontal resolution.

Evaporative controls on Antarctic precipitation: an ECHAM6 model study using innovative water tracer diagnostics

Abstract. Improving our understanding of the controls on Antarctic precipitation is critical for gaining insights into past and future polar and global environmental changes. Here we develop innovative water tracing diagnostics in the atmospheric general circulation model ECHAM6. These tracers provide new detailed information on moisture source locations and properties of Antarctic precipitation. In the preindustrial simulation, annual mean Antarctic precipitation originating from the open ocean has a source latitude range of 49–35∘ S, a source sea surface temperature range of 9.8–16.3 ∘C, a source 2 m relative humidity range of 75.6 %–83.3 %, and a source 10 m wind velocity (vel10) range of 10.1 to 11.3 m s−1. These results are consistent with estimates from existing literature. Central Antarctic precipitation is sourced from more equatorward (distant) sources via elevated transport pathways compared to coastal Antarctic precipitation. This has been attributed to a moist isentropic framework; i.e. poleward vapour transport tends to follow constant equivalent potential temperature. However, we find notable deviations from this tendency especially in the lower troposphere, likely due to radiative cooling. Heavy precipitation is sourced by longer-range moisture transport: it comes from 2.9∘ (300 km, averaged over Antarctica) more equatorward (distant) sources compared to the rest of precipitation. Precipitation during negative phases of the Southern Annular Mode (SAM) also comes from more equatorward moisture sources (by 2.4∘, averaged over Antarctica) compared to precipitation during positive SAM phases, likely due to amplified planetary waves during negative SAM phases. Moreover, source vel10 of annual mean precipitation is on average 2.1 m s−1 higher than annual mean vel10 at moisture source locations from which the precipitation originates. This shows that the evaporation of moisture driving Antarctic precipitation occurs under windier conditions than average. We quantified this dynamic control of Southern Ocean surface wind on moisture availability for Antarctic precipitation. Overall, the innovative water tracing diagnostics enhance our understanding of the controlling factors of Antarctic precipitation.

Sensitivities of atmospheric composition and climate to altitude and latitude of hypersonic aircraft emissions

Abstract. Hydrogen-powered hypersonic aircraft are designed to travel in the middle stratosphere at approximately 30–40 km. These aircraft can have a considerable impact on climate-relevant species like stratospheric water vapor, ozone, and methane and thus would contribute to climate warming. The impact of hypersonic aircraft emissions on atmospheric composition and, in turn, on radiation fluxes differs strongly depending on cruise altitude. However, in contrast to variations in the altitude of emission, differences from variations in the latitude of emission are currently unknown. Using an atmospheric chemistry general circulation model, we show that a variation in the latitude of emission can have a larger effect on perturbations and stratospheric-adjusted radiative forcing than a variation in the altitude of emission. Our results include the individual impacts of water vapor and nitrogen oxide emissions, as well as unburned hydrogen, on middle-atmospheric water vapor, ozone, and methane and the resulting radiative forcing. Water vapor perturbation lifetime continues the known tropospheric increase with altitude and reaches almost 6 years in the middle stratosphere. Our results demonstrate how atmospheric composition changes caused by emissions of hypersonic aircraft are controlled by large-scale processes like the Brewer–Dobson circulation and, depending on the latitude of emission, local phenomena like polar stratospheric clouds. The analysis includes a model evaluation of ozone and water vapor with satellite data and a novel approach to reduce simulated years by one-third. A prospect for future hypersonic research is the analysis of seasonal sensitivities and simulations with emissions from combustion of liquefied natural gas instead of liquid hydrogen.