General Assembly Voting Research Articles

Sino-US Competition for Political Influence in Africa: Can Bilateral Aid Buy UN Votes?

ABSTRACT As the bilateral tension and geopolitical turbulence intensify, both the US and Chinese governments are escalating their efforts to garner political support from members of the international community. A strategic avenue for this endeavour is the provision of financial aid. This paper examines the effects of Sino-US financial aid to Africa on the voting behaviour of African nations in the UN General Assembly. The findings reveal that financial aid from both China and the US can influence UN General Assembly votes. Specifically, US aid not only directly diminishes Africa’s political support for China but also indirectly undermines the political returns of Chinese aid through its economic and diplomatic engagements with Africa. However, these direct and indirect effects are not reciprocated by Chinese aid vis-à-vis the US.

Populism and the liberal international order: An analysis of UN voting patterns

AbstractPopulism is often assumed to undermine the liberal world order, but this claim has never been tested systematically. In this study, we do so for the first time. Based on an understanding of populism as a “thin-centered ideology” entailing anti-elitism and people-centrism, we expect populist governments to have foreign policy preferences opposed to the core features of the US-led liberal international order. Our empirical analysis assesses government preferences on the liberal international order as expressed through UN General Assembly votes. Our findings support the expectation that populism has a strong and statistically significant negative impact on foreign policy preferences related to the core norms of the liberal international order. Moreover, we find that populists with a left-wing ideology and those in less democratic countries tend to be more opposed to the US-led liberal international order. However, populist governments do not reject the UNGA as such, as they are not more likely to be absent from UNGA votes than other states. Thereby, this study makes a contribution both to the burgeoning literature on the international implications of populism and to debates on the crisis of the liberal order.

Navigating energy diplomacy in times of recovery and conflict: A study of cross-border energy trade dynamics

Recent geopolitical crises have underlined the importance of understanding when and how energy interdependence affects international politics. While scholars have extensively debated the link between international politics and international trade in general terms, systematic analyses gauging how energy interdependence shapes interstate relations have recently begun to emerge. To facilitate research on this topic, this study asks whether energy relations between states shape their foreign policy decisions. Using the recently released Global Energy Relations Dataset and United Nations General Assembly Voting Data, our study shows strong support for the hypothesis that energy interdependence increases dyadic foreign policy affinity. Moreover, out of four primary energy resources (i.e. coal, oil, natural gas, and electricity), trade in oil appears to be a strong motivator for trading states' foreign policy preferences to converge.

A DYNAMIC ADDITIVE AND MULTIPLICATIVE EFFECTS NETWORK MODEL WITH APPLICATION TO THE UNITED NATIONS VOTING BEHAVIORS.

Motivated by a study of United Nations voting behaviors, we introduce a regression model for a series of networks that are correlated over time. Our model is a dynamic extension of the additive and multiplicative effects network model (AMEN) of Hoff (2021). In addition to incorporating a temporal structure, the model accommodates two types of missing data thus allows the size of the network to vary over time. We demonstrate via simulations the necessity of various components of the model. We apply the model to the United Nations General Assembly voting data from 1983 to 2014 (Voeten, 2013) to answer interesting research questions regarding international voting behaviors. In addition to finding important factors that could explain the voting behaviors, the model-estimated additive effects, multiplicative effects, and their movements reveal meaningful foreign policy positions and alliances of various countries.

Orta Asya Devletleri’nin Küresel Güçlere Siyasal Yakınlığının Analizi: Kırgızistan, Tacikistan ve Türkmenistan Örneği

The Central Asian states, which remained under the Soviet regime for a long time, started to arouse curiosity in world politics about global and regional policy preferences after they gained their independence, and this situation led to an increase in the importance of Central Asia in global power competition. In this study, which is theorized around the concept of Small State, it is aimed to reveal the degree of political affinity towards the three global powers, China, Russia, and the USA, by analyzing the United Nations (UN) General Assembly voting data of the Central Asian States, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, and Turkmenistan between 1992-2021. The reason why the study is limited to three states from the Central Asian States is that only these states are suitable for the
 definition of small states. According to the quantitative analysis results obtained based on the UN voting data; the three Central Asian States are closer to Russia and China than the USA from their establishment to the present in terms of political affinity; the political affinity with the USA has become increasingly different especially after the years 1995-96; and, it is understood that the political affinity with China has increased especially after the 2000s.

External threats and state support for arms control

The successful closure of arms control negotiations today is conditional on the commitment of many more states than during the Cold War. The question of what determines states’ positions on arms control has therefore become increasingly relevant. Multiple scholars have identified external security threats by other states as the key explanatory factor of opposition to arms control, but empirical evidence hereof is so far limited to a small set of cases. Against this backdrop, this article carries out a global examination of the effect of external threats in the form of interstate disputes and rivalries on state support for arms control. This analysis is facilitated by a novel measure of arms control support that combines United Nations General Assembly voting data with manual coding of 1,178 resolutions. Across a variety of model specifications, the results do not show any significant effect of external threats on support for arms control. This article argues that this means either that the two variables are not related at all, or that two opposing mechanisms cancel out each other: arms control not only entails costs, but also benefits for states that face external threats, as it limits both states involved in a rivalry or dispute. Either way, this study challenges the notion that there is a strictly negative relationship between external threats and arms control support and thus contributes to our understanding of arms control and foreign policy making in general.

Türkiye’s policy on Russia-Ukraine war: Geopolitical legsplit in action

On 16 March 2022, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Republic of Turkey (or rather Türkiye) issued another press release on the anniversary of the annexation of Crimea by the Russian Federation [1] to decry the eight-year-old illegitimate referendum in Ukraine’s Autonomous Republic. Beyond doubt, official Ankara has been consistent in supporting the sovereignty and territorial integrity of its strategic partner, including on the international political fora (its UN General Assembly voting patterns are another eloquent example of this). Yet, the stance of President Erdoğan’s administration on Russia’s “special military operation” (reads as war), which unfolded on Ukrainian territory on 24 February 2022, has been rather controversial. In its immediate formal response to this unjust and unlawful act of the Kremlin, the Turkish MFA labelled the attack launched by the Russian armed forces against Ukraine as unacceptable and the one posing a serious threat to the security of the region and the world, having condemned the very idea of “changing of borders by use of arms” [2]. Of particular importance have been Türkiye’s strong criticism of Russia’s days-before decision to recognize the so-called Donetsk and Luhansk People’s Republics, key military capabilities including drones provided to Ukraine, blocked access to the Bosporus and Dardanelles Straits for non-Turkish warships, and peace efforts of President Erdoğan to resuscitate top-level communication between Moscow and Kyiv. It is official Ankara, however, to refuse from joining other NATO allies and EU partners in their sanctions policy against President Putin’s regime, to keep Turkish air space open for Russian aircraft, and to denounce discriminatory attitude towards Russians and Russian culture in some Western countries. This article looks at whether the above refers to occasional double standards or is part of systemic trading-off policy of President Erdoğan’s Türkiye in-between Russia and the West.

Bilateral political relations, space spillovers and the import expansion of China’s bulk commodity

The stability of bulk commodities imports is crucial to the development and stability of the country’s economy. Because its political attribute is more significant than other commodities, the trade of bulk commodities is more easily affected by bilateral political relations. However, there are only few studies examine the impact of political relations between countries and their spatial spillovers on bulk commodities’ imports. Based on “United Nations (UN) Voting General Assembly Voting Data” and “China Import and Export Statistics Data” from 1996 to 2014, this paper empirically examines the influence of the spatial spillover of China’s political relations with countries other than potential importing countries on the import expansion of China’s bulk commodity from the potential importing country. The results show that the improvement of bilateral political relations between China and other countries has a negative spatial spillover effect on the import of bulk commodities. However, this negative effect will be changed as China starts to establish a sound bilateral political relation with the potential importing country. Meanwhile, the more significant the political attributes of commodities, the greater the negative effect of spatial spillover. The import expansion of commodities with significant political attributes requires an improvement in direct bilateral relations.

Diffusion of Influence? Detecting China’s Footprint in Foreign Policies of Other Countries

“Chinese influence” has become a hot topic among politicians, media, and pundits. Academic studies dealing with the subject, however, generally take a much more cautious position. This paper suggests an innovative approach of studying political influence using data from the UN General Assembly voting and speech records. Utilizing the latest advancements in natural language processing (NLP), we show how to estimate, quantify, and visualise foreign policy positions using raw textual data. In Europe, it has been argued that China’s growing presence and activity in Central and Eastern European states (CEE) undermines “European unity” as the region allegedly starts shifting towards Beijing. We adopt the CEE region as a case study of China’s potential influence and highlight the positioning of CEE countries towards China, Germany, and the U.S. by visualizing the proximities among them over time. We find no evidence that the CEE countries are strategically pivoting towards China. We have controlled for known positions and trends of other countries from elsewhere in the world to strengthen the case for our methodological approach.Supplementary InformationThe online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s41111-022-00217-5.

Compliant or Defiant? Economic Sanctions and United Nations General Assembly Voting by Target Countries

What effect do economic sanctions have on the foreign policy orientation of sanctioned (target) countries towards sanctioning (sender) countries? Do sanctions create more or fewer incentives for targets to pursue divergent foreign policy agendas from that of their senders in major international forums? We posit that economic sanctions escalate tension between target and sender countries, prompting target governments to vote against the interests of sender countries at the United Nations General Assembly (UNGA). To assess the empirical merits of this theoretical claim, we combine US sanctions data with the data on the UNGA votes for over 150 countries for the 1984–2006 period. The findings show that US sanctions, particularly high-cost sanctions, are significantly associated with more dissimilar UNGA votes between the US and its targets. Our analysis suggests that sanctions not only often fail to achieve their intended policy goals but also instigate more defiant behavior by target countries. ¿Qué efecto tienen las sanciones económicas en la orientación de la política exterior de los países sancionados (objetivo) hacia los países que emiten la sanción (emisores)? ¿Crean las sanciones más o menos incentivos para que los países objetivos apliquen programas de política exterior divergentes de los de sus países emisores en los principales foros internacionales? Sostenemos que las sanciones económicas aumentan la tensión entre los países objetivo y los emisores, lo que lleva a los gobiernos objetivo a votar en contra de los intereses de los países emisores en la Asamblea General de las Naciones Unidas (AGNU). Para evaluar los méritos empíricos de esta afirmación teórica, combinamos los datos de las sanciones de EE. UU. con los datos de las votaciones de la AGNU de más de 150 países para el periodo 1984–2006. Los resultados muestran que las sanciones de EE. UU., en particular las de alto costo, están relacionadas en gran medida con votaciones más disímiles en la AGNU entre EE. UU. y sus países objetivos. Nuestro análisis sugiere que las sanciones no solo no logran a menudo cumplir sus objetivos políticos previstos, sino que además instigan un comportamiento más desafiante por parte de los países objetivo. Quelle est l’incidence des sanctions économiques sur la politique pratiquée par les pays sanctionnés à l’égard des pays émetteurs? Ces sanctions ont-elles pour effet d’encourager, ou bien au contraire de décourager les pays sanctionnés à adopter des stratégies antagoniques par rapport aux pays émetteurs dans les grandes instances internationales? Nous émettons l’idée que les sanctions économiques accentuent les tensions entre pays émetteurs et pays sanctionnés en poussant ces derniers à voter contre les intérêts des pays émetteurs à l’Assemblée générale des Nations Unies (AGNU). Pour déterminer la valeur empirique de cette théorie, nous avons comparé les sanctions américaines et les votes à l’AGNU de plus de 150 pays entre 1984 et 2006. Cette analyse met en évidence une forte corrélation entre sanctions (notamment celles entraînant un coût économique élevé) et votes contre les intérêts des États-Unis à l’AGNU. Notre analyse montre que les sanctions, souvent inefficaces sur le plan politique, ont pour effet de susciter des comportements hostiles chez les pays sanctionnés.

“I Will Bless Those Who Bless You”: Evangelicalism and Support for Israel in Latin America

AbstractThe relations of the Evangelical movement and Israel have drawn the attention of many scholars of religion, public opinion, and political science in the last two decades. This study examines the influence of Evangelicals on their country's policy toward Israel. I conduct the first quantitative, cross-national research, investigating the links between the size of the Evangelical population of a country and its support for Israel. Analyzing 198 UN General Assembly votes of 18 Latin American countries from 2009 to 2019, my results show that as the Evangelical population in a country grows, so does its support for Israel. Unpredictably, I also find that a state of armed conflict between Israel and the Palestinians does not decrease the support for Israel.

Chinese Power and the State-Owned Enterprise

AbstractChina has become a leading source of outward foreign direct investment (FDI), and the Chinese state exercises a unique degree of influence over its firms. We explore the patterns of political influence over FDI using a comprehensive firm-level data set on Chinese outward FDI from 2000 to 2013. Using six country-level measures of affinity for China, we find that state-owned and globally diversified firms appear to conform most closely to official guidance. Official investment directives and state visits link investments to state policies; Taiwan recognition and Dalai Lama meetings anchor our political interpretations; and UN General Assembly voting and temporary UN Security Council membership suggest that this intervention may be systematic. The results are robust to country, year, and sector fixed effects, and most do not hold for private or small firms. The results suggest that China uses FDI by prominent state-owned enterprises as an instrument to promote its foreign policy.

Birds of a feather vote together? EU and Arab League UNGA Israel voting

ABSTRACT UN General Assembly (UNGA) voting is non-binding, unlike voting in the Security Council (UNSC), yet is considered to reflect states’ interests. This article attempts to explore, compare, and explain patterns in UNGA voting of two regional organisations (ROs) on Israel-related resolutions, and/or issues that are of importance to Israel. Israel has been a unique case when it comes to the UN, which has shown pervasive hostility towards the Jewish state over the past decades (e.g. 83 of the 97 UNGA resolutions criticising countries in 2012–15 [or 86%] were directed against Israel). While most researchers agree that ROs differ in the level of their group vote uniformity, this article argues that states’ voting on resolutions related to Israel also varies within ROs and over time. As such, it sheds light on internal changes within the examined ROs (the Arab League and the EU) and shows important differences among members of these organisations.

미국과 중국의 해외원조가 사하라 이남 아프리카 국가들의 UN 총회 투표에 미치는 영향

미국과 중국의 해외원조가 사하라 이남 아프리카 국가들의 UN 총회 투표에 미치는 영향

The political economy of Vermont’s anti-fracking movement

In 2012, Vermont became the first state in the US to ban hydraulic fracturing for natural gas and oil production despite having zero known natural gas reserves. We evaluate the role of legislator and median voter characteristics on Vermont General Assembly voting outcomes on Act 152, which essentially bans fracking in the state. Using a double-selection post-Least Absolute Shrinkage and Selection Operator approach, we find evidence that campaign donations and being a member of the Democratic Party are positively related to voting to ban fracking. Median voter characteristics appear not to play an essential role in shaping legislator voting behaviour, corroborating the theory of expressive voting on the decision to ban fracking in Vermont.

Power Politics and Foreign Aid Delivery Tactics

ObjectiveThis article explores the influence of aid recipient countries’ U.N. General Assembly voting on the amount of government‐to‐government economic assistance they receive from donor countries. I argue that major power donor states are swayed by recipient states’ voting records, while minor donors do not take U.N. General Assembly voting into consideration while formulating their aid policies.MethodTo explore the relationship, I utilize newly available, disaggregated foreign aid data.ResultI find considerable empirical support for the assertion that dissimilar voting in the U.N. General Assembly results in less government‐to‐government aid from major power donors but has no effects on aid provided by minor power donors.ConclusionThe findings show that foreign aid policies are based on donor countries’ position in the international system, where major power donors base their aid decisions mostly on strategic goals; minor power donors, on the other hand, prioritize recipient needs while formulating their foreign aid policies.

South–South cohesiveness versus South–South rhetoric: Brazil and Africa at the UN General Assembly

South–South relations have regained widespread interest in recent years, together with increasingly visible stances on international stages. Brazil’s interactions with the African continent, in particular, came to epitomise such a perception while sustaining an expectation of mutual alignment in several global issues. However, these assumptions still lack empirical corroboration. Drawing on United Nations General Assembly voting data for the 1991–2013 timeframe, this article questions a supposed South–South solidarity at the multilateral institution with the largest global representation and identifies key thematic axes that incite greater collective stances. The analysis further sheds light on whether or not a common South–South agenda has emerged over time.

United Nations general assembly voting and foreign aid bypass

Does holding different foreign policy positions relative to the USA in the United Nations General Assembly (UNGA) influence US aid delivery decisions? Conventional wisdom on foreign aid suggests that donors provide more government-to-government assistance to well-governed countries and use non-state development actors in recipient countries with poor governance. This paper argues that strategic considerations also determine the choice of the channel of aid delivery. Countries that support US-backed resolutions in the UNGA witness more government-to-government aid than countries that hold different positions. I find considerable empirical support for this theory using newly available data on UN voting and an originally constructed measure of aid delivery from 2004 to 2011.

The International Political Significance of Chinese and US Foreign Aid: As Seen in United Nations General Assembly Voting

The effect of China’s rapid development on Sino-US relations and the existing international order is an important theoretical issue in current international relations research. We use empirical research methods to explore whether and how China has influenced the results of US “vote-buying” in the United Nations General Assembly (UNGA) through foreign aid. We find that through the mechanisms of foreign policy preferences, vulnerability and credibility, Chinese foreign aid has decreased US manipulation of UNGA voting. However, this is not a subjective strategic choice on China’s part but the objective result of Chinese economic development. Taking the game of Sino-US foreign aid in international politics as the entry point and squarely facing the structural contradictions and competition that exist between China and the US will help us understand not only the problems and obstacles China will encounter on its future developmental path, but also the necessity and difficulty of risk control in Sino-US relations.

Aid for Vote? United Nations General Assembly Voting and American Aid Allocation

How do political factors affect foreign aid allocation? Recognizing that aid can be used as inducement, we argue that the US has incentives to provide aid to countries who oppose it a priori at the United Nations General Assembly when it is the sole country that “buys votes” with aid, in order to maximize the number of favorable votes. When there is a rival country trying to buy votes, as was the case during the Cold War, there are incentives for the US to provide aid even to those who support its position already. We empirically demonstrate that the US provides more aid to countries who hold unfavorable positions to the US only in the post-Cold War era.